Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 2/6/15
February 6, 2015
| 12:49 |
: Today’s schedule involved a bunch of calls and one got moved and one went shorter than expected so here I am. Good catchphrase, right?
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| 12:55 |
Have you heard of this Moncada guy? |
| 12:55 |
It’s that time of the week. Legit questions only, please |
| 12:55 |
: Nice to see the sarcasta-bots are out early today
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| 12:55 |
Any new predictions on where the Cubans land? |
| 12:56 |
: I wrote this one yesterday, so I hope I don’t change my mind that fast
In fairness I narrowed it down to two likely options, which is really the most you can do at this point. The other Cubans’ market is still wide open. |
| 12:56 |
Do you believe Luis Sardinas will be able to get his bat going enough to be a regular starting shortstop? 2-3 wins a good range if he does? |
| 12:57 |
: Would not expect that. Seen in industry as plus defender and just enough bat to put on the field. Will have to really improve w/bat to be more than 2 win talent.
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| 12:58 |
whats the name of the 14 year old venezuela kid that you mentioned in your baseball prospectus podcast? aka the next miggy |
| 12:59 |
: Kevin Maitan
He could also be the tipping point for teams deciding if they want to go over their pools this year |
| 1:00 |
Assuming no major setbacks, is Jesse Winker a major league starter in 2016? |
| 1:01 |
: Yep. Maybe not opening day, but at some point I’d think.
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| 1:01 |
Austin Hedges vs. Blake Swihart: Which one wins an arm wrestling match? Also, which is the catcher you’d prefer, I guess. |
| 1:01 |
: I’m lower on Hedges than most. He isn’t in my top 100. Swihart is in my top 15.
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| 1:03 |
Do you think an international draft would decrease or increase the amount of talent coming to MLB baseball from the DR, Venezuela, Curacao, etc? Corollary: Do you think the draft/IFA changes in the most recent CBA changed the amount of talent coming to professional baseball. |
| 1:05 |
: Changing the level of talent means the infrastructure changes. If there’s a 10 year old in the DR with high level talent, he won’t stop playing in the next 5 years because the CBA is slightly different. To have noticeably less talent, kids have to stop playing baseball or people have to stop training them. It’s a very long-term impact.
The theories vary but the prevailing thought is that int’l draft will take the huge financial upside out of July 2, as there’s no negotiating/marketing the way MLB wants it to go. MLB seems to favor holding workouts for kids where they have some control over the process, which makes the trainers less important. If that’s the way it ends up happening, then kids that are really good at 8-12 will get less instruction and may stop playing or not be as good. That’s the fear. Who knows if that is how it will play out, though. |
| 1:07 |
How would you rank Dillon, Cease, & Steele…which has the highest ceiling / highest probability? Thanks! |
| 1:08 |
: I assume you mean Dillon Maples, didn’t know the sausage czar was on a first name basis with Maples. I wrote up all three here
Maples has best combo of stuff/size but can’t throw strikes and Cease may have best stuff but is coming off TJ and isn’t huge to begin with, so could be a reliever. Steele is more average stuff pitchability type that you hope improves with more innings. |
| 1:08 |
What else do you do when you go on scouting trips to the DR? I’m imagining a lot of rum-based shennanigans |
| 1:09 |
: Oh those stories aren’t for the chat. Going to the DR on Sunday so we’ll see what I can say on next week’s podcast.
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| 1:09 |
Can you estimate Hector Olivera’s triple slash or offense in general for this year? Too many unknowns to guess? |
| 1:09 |
: Lots of unknowns. People that like him say 50+ bat and power and can play 2B. Still not confident enough to throw around anything with certainty on him. He is scheduled to workout in the DR while I’m there, so if everything goes as planned, I’ll have lots of thoughts on him next week.
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| 1:10 |
I know that you are all business, all the time but do you a favorite Cactus league stadium? Grapefruit league stadium? |
| 1:10 |
: Salt River and Mesa are the best ones I’ve seen in AZ, but I’ve only been out there for the AFL. Clearwater is the best baseball stadium in Florida
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| 1:10 |
If the Dodgers were to land Yoan Moncada, where would he rank in the system? |
| 1:11 |
: 3rd right behind Urias and Seager
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| 1:11 |
Lindor or JP Crawford? |
| 1:11 |
: Crawford but very close
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| 1:11 |
Do you expect Dilson Herrera to make your top 100 prospect list? |
| 1:11 |
: Is literally #100 right now so could go either way, still shuffling names.
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| 1:12 |
Is there an Indians minor league starter outside of Sheffield, Brown that has an sort of claim to being a rotation prospect? |
| 1:13 |
: Made two Indians calls yesterday, so good timing. Those are the top two guys in that regard. Luis Lugo and Cody Anderson are the next two and I liked Sean Brady and Grant Hockin as amateurs. Adam Plutko has some chance to be a #5.
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| 1:13 |
When you go out and do scouting, for example when you went looking at the potential 1.1 guys last year, are scouts completely opposed to advanced stats? |
| 1:14 |
: More open than you’d think, but for HS players even the most statistically inclined person would say throw out all of those stats. Showcase circuit with wood bat and top pitchers is useful but you rarely get enough outcomes in those at bats to get a good sample.
In college you can use stats for indicators but there’s a crazy amount of noise still. |
| 1:14 |
Is Christian Villanueva unlikely to play in the majors? |
| 1:15 |
: He’ll get to the bigs. Probably a corner utility guy that plays 3B and 1B.
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| 1:15 |
About how many prospects at any given time are projected to become major league players? average regulars? all-stars? |
| 1:16 |
: Tough to say because the front offices with all the reports aren’t trying to answer this question. You could give a guy a 60 OFP report, which means borderline All-Star, but then you have another guy turn him in as a 50 from the same month. 50 means the scouts expects him to be a low end everyday player but even that is just likely outcomes of a bunch of possibilities. So what would you call that guy?
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| 1:17 |
Since you were the one who reported (a bit back) that the Phillies were “almost definitely” going over their international pool next period, I’ve got a question (that maybe only you can answer). Are they almost definitely going over because they already have verbal agreements in place with 15 year olds (to be 16 year olds) or is it just a feeling among baseball? And if they have “deals” in place, how big of an impact would it be in the international market if they signed Moncada and reneged on those deals (in terms of hurting possible relationships in the future)? |
| 1:18 |
: Verbal agreements that are in excess of their pool amount. Some will differ on what deals are done and which ones aren’t and not every scout knows every deal and they sometimes get backed out of for various reasons…so that’s why all of these aren’t 100% agreed upon, but the Phillies are one of the most likely teams to go over.
Here’s that full list of teams, which I’ll probably update later this month: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… |
| 1:19 |
: I mentioned the Moncada impact on these verbal deals in yesterday’s article.
Phillies fans are asking a lot of Moncada questions for some reason. I haven’t seen one report even mention them as a suitor and I sure haven’t heard anything about it. |
| 1:22 |
Did you hear Alderson’s comments regarding Moncada? Basically his argument is that while Moncada is very good, the penalty, not just the tax, but the not being able to sign the next “amed rosario or marcos molina” out of the DR for the next two years is the major deterrent. Agree? |
| 1:23 |
: I think that’s what most teams feel, for one reason or another. You’d be upending a three-year international status quo for one player that costs as much as a premiere free agent and you haven’t seen him play in a game for a year. It’s a bold move. If I’m not mistaken, Molina signed for under $300K, though. I’d trade Rosario and Molina for Moncada, so that isn’t really the problem, it’s the full cost of all those things included and blowing up the internal acquisition process.
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| 1:23 |
Hey man, I know Clint Fraizer finished the season well, but do you think he see’s the show before 2017? |
| 1:24 |
: People are still concerned he isn’t making enough contact. He needs to do that before we talk ETA. One year per level until then.
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| 1:24 |
Will Luis Lugo be on your Indians list? |
| 1:24 |
: Yes.
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| 1:24 |
Tigers a real darkhorse for Moncada? |
| 1:25 |
: What constitutes a real darkhorse? A confirmed 3% chance?
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| 1:25 |
Moncada, Correa, or Russell? |
| 1:25 |
: Add in Seager and those are the 4 bats I have a 65 FV grade on.
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| 1:26 |
Can you elaborate how big of a favorite the Dodgers are for Moncada? Would you say they’re a significant favorite or is it fairly close for the Yankees? |
| 1:26 |
: They are the two favorites and people think LA will pay more. I don’t think either team knows how much they will ultimately offer yet, so this is just reading tea leaves
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| 1:26 |
Do you believe that Rafael Devers has superstar potential, or does being a Boston prospect generate more hyperbole than warranted. (I swear, there’s got to be a shorthand way to ask this kind of question?) |
| 1:27 |
: Chance for 60 hit and power and chance to play 3B. I don’t hype players based on their team and he’s easily in the top 100 after playing short-season leagues. He’s #LEGIT
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| 1:27 |
When’s your Top 100 list dropping? |
| 1:28 |
: This month. Don’t think we’ve announced the day yet, but the list is almost locked in.
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| 1:28 |
Youve said multiple times Clint Frazier is your guy, and youve expanded on his tools a little. Is there something beyond his normal scouting report and gingeriness that makes you so high on him? Makeup, etc? |
| 1:29 |
: I like betting on 80 bat speed. The other guys that have that are Javier Baez, Gary Sheffield and maybe a handful of other guys. It makes hitting so much easier. 65 raw power, 60 speed and a 60 arm doesn’t hurt, either.
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| 1:29 |
would you rather have Alex Reyes or Marco Gonzales? |
| 1:29 |
: Leaning Reyes right now
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| 1:29 |
Do you ever talk to international prospects themselves when you go over there? How do they view the MLB? Are there favorite teams? |
| 1:32 |
: My spanish is just okay, but White Sox RF Micker Adolfo is fluent in English so I talked to him last year. It’s about how you’d think an elite teenage baseball player would talk about MLB. Knows the best players/teams, likes the flashy ones, has a favorite player he models himself after, etc. It’s more fun trying to talk to the players that don’t speak English. Show them video of their swing and they go nuts. It’s like the And1mixtape tour when their friends walk by and see it. I pulled up video of all the guys I’ve seen the last few years on my external hard drive for some kids last year. I showed them the Puig BP bat flip and they totally lost it.
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| 1:32 |
You mentioned that Matt Olson has average bat speed, maybe below. How does he hit 37 HR, even in the Cal League, without good bat speed? |
| 1:33 |
: Average bat speed, 60+ raw power, good feel for the zone. People think average is an insult. There’s lots of average in the big leagues. MLB average means that’s the most common kind of big league bat speed.
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| 1:33 |
Do you still see Meyer as a closer or #3/#4 pitcher? If so, wasn’t Span and overpay for him? |
| 1:33 |
: Closer for me, but in relief it might be an 80 fastball and 70 curve. The stuff is wicked brah
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| 1:33 |
Eduardo Rodriguez got much more value in Keith Law’s eyes as soon as he became a member of the Sox. Control study in Boston prospect hype or actual major approvement? |
| 1:35 |
: LOL people on the internet LOVE conspiracy theories. Rodriguez got better after he was traded. Anyone that saw him before/after would have a higher opinion after the trade, too. Sorry to ruin that for you.
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| 1:35 |
What have you heard on JaCoby Jones? He seems to be flashing an intriguing power speed combo at a premium position in West Virginia. I haven’t heard much on him though other than he had first round potential in college. |
| 1:36 |
: Huge upside. 6’3 with 55 raw to all fields, 60 run, 55 arm. playing SS now and PIT thinks he stay there. I think he fits better at 3B or CF. If he can get a better approach, he could be a monster. Definite 1st round tools but has never performed close to how good his tools are.
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| 1:37 |
Would signing Moncada move the Sox to the top of the best farm systems? |
| 1:37 |
: Probably still #2 to the Cubs, but it would be close. Twins in that discussion as well.
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| 1:37 |
Where does Zach Eflin rate for you in the Phillies system? He was traded after your Phillies report but before the Padres. |
| 1:38 |
: 45+ FV. top guy after the big three for PHI. still has projection, 60 CH, so hoping average FB/SL improve.
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| 1:38 |
What do you do when you aren’t feeding data into the massive “Legit or Not Legit” computer you must own? |
| 1:38 |
: Popping bubblewrap and yelling at my interns to answer more questions in the chat
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| 1:39 |
What Red Sox pitching prospect has the best chance to make an impact this year? |
| 1:39 |
: I’d probably say Brian Johnson then Eduardo Rodriguez then Henry Owens
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| 1:39 |
What are you thoughts on Mr. Golden Spikes AJ Reed with the Astros? A quick mover? |
| 1:40 |
: 65 raw, but the swing is a little troublesome, so need to see him hit at each level. If he hits, he’ll move fast.
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| 1:40 |
When is the next team coming out? |
| 1:40 |
: Finishing up the top 100+ now, once that’s all set I’ll put out more teams. OAK and LAA are next and the research is done. About to finish a couple more teams.
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| 1:40 |
Assuming he makes the majors later this season, does Luis Severino get a chance to start? Or is he a bullpen guy long-term? |
| 1:41 |
: Cool name and I wrote about this at length last week
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| 1:41 |
How many 50 FV players in the Tigers system for you? |
| 1:41 |
: Right now I have 1. May end up with 2 or 0.
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| 1:41 |
I listened to your conversation on Effectively Wild today … very interesting. Follow-up question, at what point can a player like Moncada (or a drafted player) sign a major league contract. I’m thinking about the Jon Singleton contract, which (as I understand) he signed prior to being called up. |
| 1:42 |
: Can sign it whenever, but if it’s for a real amount of money above what the initial deal was for, MLB would veto it as a way of getting around the bonus pool penalty. I’d guess they’d make the team wait another year.
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| 1:42 |
Any insight into Orioles rhp / Notre Dame guard Pat Connaughton? Is he leveraging hoops to hopefully sign for more $ with the Orioles? |
| 1:42 |
: Wrote about him at length recently as well
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| 1:43 |
Thoughts on Cubs legit Outfielder Kevonte Mitchell? |
| 1:43 |
: Wrote about him here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…
Interesting upside guy to watch |
| 1:44 |
I often see prospects talked about moving from SS to 3B due to lack of range (not arm) then random guy questions if said prospect has the arm for 3B. I’ve always thought SS requires more arm strength. Does shortstop or third base require a stronger arm? |
| 1:44 |
: 55 arm is minimum for SS w/very few exceptions, 50 arm is minimum at 3B w/few exceptions
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| 1:44 |
Whats your take on the Trepagnier/Salcedo trade? Winner? |
| 1:45 |
: Both were off the list and not in the others for me, but worth keeping an eye on. Salcedo has good tools but bad approach and not much defensive value. Trepagnier is 92-94 w/fringy slider and some projection.
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| 1:45 |
When a team acquires a player for “cash considerations,” assuming the player is a meh prospect, approximately how much cash usually changes hands? |
| 1:45 |
: Under $100,000. When it’s a marginal prospect that might be on a release list, it’s often $1, which I laughed at when I learned how common that is.
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| 1:46 |
What are your thoughts on Adrian Rondon and Amed Rosario? I’ve heard great things about Rondon. |
| 1:47 |
: Wrote a lot about both and saw Rondon this fall, included video
Rondon: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… Rosario: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… |
| 1:47 |
Phillies focused on Moncada because this morning, JJ Cooper (of BA) tweeted: “If I’m the Phillies, I’m all in on Moncada. Would be a huge help to a system needing help. Would kick start the rebuilding. Phillies have an elite SS prospect. Moncada would give them an elite prospect at 2B/3B or CF.” |
| 1:48 |
: Yeah but that’s true of literally every team in baseball. That’s not intel on them being any more interested than anyone else.
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| 1:48 |
From MLB.com: “‘We know him well,’ Phillies GM Amaro said Thursday. ‘He’s a very good prospect…. [W]e’re not the only team that would be interested in Yoan Moncada. But that’s all I can say.” Maybe that’s why Phillies fans are so interested. Plus, they have, like, nothing to root for otherwise. DON’T TAKE THIS FROM THEM. |
| 1:48 |
: Fine, keep speculating, Phillies fans!
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| 1:48 |
Do you know of any illegitimate prospects? |
| 1:48 |
: I’m working on a hard-hitting investigative piece on this topic
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| 1:49 |
so you’re sayin there’s a chance? Not like a Katy Perry Darkhorse but just a chance they’re in on the talks. Have been mentioned with a lot of other Cuban players but never landed one yet. |
| 1:49 |
: If Juicy J is involved, the Phillies instantly become the favorites to land Moncada.
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| 1:49 |
: Ok that’s all for me, back to the phone
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Kiley McDaniel has worked as an executive and scout, most recently for the Atlanta Braves, also for the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates. He's written for ESPN, Fox Sports and Baseball Prospectus. Follow him on twitter.
Thoughts on Cubs outfielder Kevonte Mitchell?
He’s legit.
But is he too legit to quit?