Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 2/6/15

Kiley McDaniel: Today’s schedule involved a bunch of calls and one got moved and one went shorter than expected so here I am. Good catchphrase, right?

Comment From Chris (AL)
Have you heard of this Moncada guy?

Comment From RotoLando
It’s that time of the week. Legit questions only, please

Kiley McDaniel: Nice to see the sarcasta-bots are out early today

Comment From RotoLando
Any new predictions on where the Cubans land?

Kiley McDaniel: I wrote this one yesterday, so I hope I don’t change my mind that fast

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

In fairness I narrowed it down to two likely options, which is really the most you can do at this point. The other Cubans’ market is still wide open.

Comment From Derek
Do you believe Luis Sardinas will be able to get his bat going enough to be a regular starting shortstop? 2-3 wins a good range if he does?

Kiley McDaniel: Would not expect that. Seen in industry as plus defender and just enough bat to put on the field. Will have to really improve w/bat to be more than 2 win talent.

Comment From simply_jmo
whats the name of the 14 year old venezuela kid that you mentioned in your baseball prospectus podcast? aka the next miggy

Kiley McDaniel: Kevin Maitan

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

He could also be the tipping point for teams deciding if they want to go over their pools this year

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Spaceghazi
Assuming no major setbacks, is Jesse Winker a major league starter in 2016?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep. Maybe not opening day, but at some point I’d think.

Comment From Phillies113
Austin Hedges vs. Blake Swihart: Which one wins an arm wrestling match? Also, which is the catcher you’d prefer, I guess.

Kiley McDaniel: I’m lower on Hedges than most. He isn’t in my top 100. Swihart is in my top 15.

Comment From Jay
Do you think an international draft would decrease or increase the amount of talent coming to MLB baseball from the DR, Venezuela, Curacao, etc? Corollary: Do you think the draft/IFA changes in the most recent CBA changed the amount of talent coming to professional baseball.

Kiley McDaniel: Changing the level of talent means the infrastructure changes. If there’s a 10 year old in the DR with high level talent, he won’t stop playing in the next 5 years because the CBA is slightly different. To have noticeably less talent, kids have to stop playing baseball or people have to stop training them. It’s a very long-term impact.

The theories vary but the prevailing thought is that int’l draft will take the huge financial upside out of July 2, as there’s no negotiating/marketing the way MLB wants it to go. MLB seems to favor holding workouts for kids where they have some control over the process, which makes the trainers less important. If that’s the way it ends up happening, then kids that are really good at 8-12 will get less instruction and may stop playing or not be as good. That’s the fear. Who knows if that is how it will play out, though.

Comment From Jimmy Dean
How would you rank Dillon, Cease, & Steele…which has the highest ceiling / highest probability? Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel: I assume you mean Dillon Maples, didn’t know the sausage czar was on a first name basis with Maples. I wrote up all three here

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Maples has best combo of stuff/size but can’t throw strikes and Cease may have best stuff but is coming off TJ and isn’t huge to begin with, so could be a reliever. Steele is more average stuff pitchability type that you hope improves with more innings.

Comment From RotoLando
What else do you do when you go on scouting trips to the DR? I’m imagining a lot of rum-based shennanigans

Kiley McDaniel: Oh those stories aren’t for the chat. Going to the DR on Sunday so we’ll see what I can say on next week’s podcast.

Comment From Derek
Can you estimate Hector Olivera’s triple slash or offense in general for this year? Too many unknowns to guess?

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of unknowns. People that like him say 50+ bat and power and can play 2B. Still not confident enough to throw around anything with certainty on him. He is scheduled to workout in the DR while I’m there, so if everything goes as planned, I’ll have lots of thoughts on him next week.

Comment From Earl
I know that you are all business, all the time but do you a favorite Cactus league stadium? Grapefruit league stadium?

Kiley McDaniel: Salt River and Mesa are the best ones I’ve seen in AZ, but I’ve only been out there for the AFL. Clearwater is the best baseball stadium in Florida

Comment From Dustin Nosler
If the Dodgers were to land Yoan Moncada, where would he rank in the system?

Kiley McDaniel: 3rd right behind Urias and Seager

Comment From Ryan
Lindor or JP Crawford?

Kiley McDaniel: Crawford but very close

Comment From Sam
Do you expect Dilson Herrera to make your top 100 prospect list?

Kiley McDaniel: Is literally #100 right now so could go either way, still shuffling names.

Comment From Rory Gilmore
Is there an Indians minor league starter outside of Sheffield, Brown that has an sort of claim to being a rotation prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: Made two Indians calls yesterday, so good timing. Those are the top two guys in that regard. Luis Lugo and Cody Anderson are the next two and I liked Sean Brady and Grant Hockin as amateurs. Adam Plutko has some chance to be a #5.

Comment From Lex
When you go out and do scouting, for example when you went looking at the potential 1.1 guys last year, are scouts completely opposed to advanced stats?

Kiley McDaniel: More open than you’d think, but for HS players even the most statistically inclined person would say throw out all of those stats. Showcase circuit with wood bat and top pitchers is useful but you rarely get enough outcomes in those at bats to get a good sample.

In college you can use stats for indicators but there’s a crazy amount of noise still.

Comment From Dan
Is Christian Villanueva unlikely to play in the majors?

Kiley McDaniel: He’ll get to the bigs. Probably a corner utility guy that plays 3B and 1B.

Comment From mike
About how many prospects at any given time are projected to become major league players? average regulars? all-stars?

Kiley McDaniel: Tough to say because the front offices with all the reports aren’t trying to answer this question. You could give a guy a 60 OFP report, which means borderline All-Star, but then you have another guy turn him in as a 50 from the same month. 50 means the scouts expects him to be a low end everyday player but even that is just likely outcomes of a bunch of possibilities. So what would you call that guy?

Comment From Mike P.
Since you were the one who reported (a bit back) that the Phillies were “almost definitely” going over their international pool next period, I’ve got a question (that maybe only you can answer). Are they almost definitely going over because they already have verbal agreements in place with 15 year olds (to be 16 year olds) or is it just a feeling among baseball? And if they have “deals” in place, how big of an impact would it be in the international market if they signed Moncada and reneged on those deals (in terms of hurting possible relationships in the future)?

Kiley McDaniel: Verbal agreements that are in excess of their pool amount. Some will differ on what deals are done and which ones aren’t and not every scout knows every deal and they sometimes get backed out of for various reasons…so that’s why all of these aren’t 100% agreed upon, but the Phillies are one of the most likely teams to go over.

Here’s that full list of teams, which I’ll probably update later this month: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Kiley McDaniel: I mentioned the Moncada impact on these verbal deals in yesterday’s article.

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Phillies fans are asking a lot of Moncada questions for some reason. I haven’t seen one report even mention them as a suitor and I sure haven’t heard anything about it.

Comment From John
Did you hear Alderson’s comments regarding Moncada? Basically his argument is that while Moncada is very good, the penalty, not just the tax, but the not being able to sign the next “amed rosario or marcos molina” out of the DR for the next two years is the major deterrent. Agree?

Kiley McDaniel: I think that’s what most teams feel, for one reason or another. You’d be upending a three-year international status quo for one player that costs as much as a premiere free agent and you haven’t seen him play in a game for a year. It’s a bold move. If I’m not mistaken, Molina signed for under $300K, though. I’d trade Rosario and Molina for Moncada, so that isn’t really the problem, it’s the full cost of all those things included and blowing up the internal acquisition process.

Comment From Joe Toronto
Hey man, I know Clint Fraizer finished the season well, but do you think he see’s the show before 2017?

Kiley McDaniel: People are still concerned he isn’t making enough contact. He needs to do that before we talk ETA. One year per level until then.

Comment From Matt
Will Luis Lugo be on your Indians list?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes.

Comment From Colby
Tigers a real darkhorse for Moncada?

Kiley McDaniel: What constitutes a real darkhorse? A confirmed 3% chance?

Comment From Wilson
Moncada, Correa, or Russell?

Kiley McDaniel: Add in Seager and those are the 4 bats I have a 65 FV grade on.

Comment From The Bronx Empire
Can you elaborate how big of a favorite the Dodgers are for Moncada? Would you say they’re a significant favorite or is it fairly close for the Yankees?

Kiley McDaniel: They are the two favorites and people think LA will pay more. I don’t think either team knows how much they will ultimately offer yet, so this is just reading tea leaves

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From RotoLando
Do you believe that Rafael Devers has superstar potential, or does being a Boston prospect generate more hyperbole than warranted. (I swear, there’s got to be a shorthand way to ask this kind of question?)

Kiley McDaniel: Chance for 60 hit and power and chance to play 3B. I don’t hype players based on their team and he’s easily in the top 100 after playing short-season leagues. He’s #LEGIT

Comment From Chuckles the Clown
When’s your Top 100 list dropping?

Kiley McDaniel: This month. Don’t think we’ve announced the day yet, but the list is almost locked in.

Comment From CoolWinnebago
Youve said multiple times Clint Frazier is your guy, and youve expanded on his tools a little. Is there something beyond his normal scouting report and gingeriness that makes you so high on him? Makeup, etc?

Kiley McDaniel: I like betting on 80 bat speed. The other guys that have that are Javier Baez, Gary Sheffield and maybe a handful of other guys. It makes hitting so much easier. 65 raw power, 60 speed and a 60 arm doesn’t hurt, either.

Comment From Johnny
would you rather have Alex Reyes or Marco Gonzales?

Kiley McDaniel: Leaning Reyes right now

Comment From RotoLando
Do you ever talk to international prospects themselves when you go over there? How do they view the MLB? Are there favorite teams?

Kiley McDaniel: My spanish is just okay, but White Sox RF Micker Adolfo is fluent in English so I talked to him last year. It’s about how you’d think an elite teenage baseball player would talk about MLB. Knows the best players/teams, likes the flashy ones, has a favorite player he models himself after, etc. It’s more fun trying to talk to the players that don’t speak English. Show them video of their swing and they go nuts. It’s like the And1mixtape tour when their friends walk by and see it. I pulled up video of all the guys I’ve seen the last few years on my external hard drive for some kids last year. I showed them the Puig BP bat flip and they totally lost it.

Comment From Emilio
You mentioned that Matt Olson has average bat speed, maybe below. How does he hit 37 HR, even in the Cal League, without good bat speed?

Kiley McDaniel: Average bat speed, 60+ raw power, good feel for the zone. People think average is an insult. There’s lots of average in the big leagues. MLB average means that’s the most common kind of big league bat speed.

Comment From Jimmer
Do you still see Meyer as a closer or #3/#4 pitcher? If so, wasn’t Span and overpay for him?

Kiley McDaniel: Closer for me, but in relief it might be an 80 fastball and 70 curve. The stuff is wicked brah

Comment From Josh
Eduardo Rodriguez got much more value in Keith Law’s eyes as soon as he became a member of the Sox. Control study in Boston prospect hype or actual major approvement?

Kiley McDaniel: LOL people on the internet LOVE conspiracy theories. Rodriguez got better after he was traded. Anyone that saw him before/after would have a higher opinion after the trade, too. Sorry to ruin that for you.

Comment From Dylan
What have you heard on JaCoby Jones? He seems to be flashing an intriguing power speed combo at a premium position in West Virginia. I haven’t heard much on him though other than he had first round potential in college.

Kiley McDaniel: Huge upside. 6’3 with 55 raw to all fields, 60 run, 55 arm. playing SS now and PIT thinks he stay there. I think he fits better at 3B or CF. If he can get a better approach, he could be a monster. Definite 1st round tools but has never performed close to how good his tools are.

Comment From John
Would signing Moncada move the Sox to the top of the best farm systems?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably still #2 to the Cubs, but it would be close. Twins in that discussion as well.

Comment From Andy
Where does Zach Eflin rate for you in the Phillies system? He was traded after your Phillies report but before the Padres.

Kiley McDaniel: 45+ FV. top guy after the big three for PHI. still has projection, 60 CH, so hoping average FB/SL improve.

Comment From RotoLando
What do you do when you aren’t feeding data into the massive “Legit or Not Legit” computer you must own?

Kiley McDaniel: Popping bubblewrap and yelling at my interns to answer more questions in the chat

Comment From John
What Red Sox pitching prospect has the best chance to make an impact this year?

Kiley McDaniel: I’d probably say Brian Johnson then Eduardo Rodriguez then Henry Owens

Comment From Riley
What are you thoughts on Mr. Golden Spikes AJ Reed with the Astros? A quick mover?

Kiley McDaniel: 65 raw, but the swing is a little troublesome, so need to see him hit at each level. If he hits, he’ll move fast.

http://www.fangraphs.com/st…

Comment From Brandon
When is the next team coming out?

Kiley McDaniel: Finishing up the top 100+ now, once that’s all set I’ll put out more teams. OAK and LAA are next and the research is done. About to finish a couple more teams.

Comment From Skeet McNutter
Assuming he makes the majors later this season, does Luis Severino get a chance to start? Or is he a bullpen guy long-term?

Kiley McDaniel: Cool name and I wrote about this at length last week

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Brandon
How many 50 FV players in the Tigers system for you?

Kiley McDaniel: Right now I have 1. May end up with 2 or 0.

Comment From George
I listened to your conversation on Effectively Wild today … very interesting. Follow-up question, at what point can a player like Moncada (or a drafted player) sign a major league contract. I’m thinking about the Jon Singleton contract, which (as I understand) he signed prior to being called up.

Kiley McDaniel: Can sign it whenever, but if it’s for a real amount of money above what the initial deal was for, MLB would veto it as a way of getting around the bonus pool penalty. I’d guess they’d make the team wait another year.

Comment From Isaac
Any insight into Orioles rhp / Notre Dame guard Pat Connaughton? Is he leveraging hoops to hopefully sign for more $ with the Orioles?

Kiley McDaniel: Wrote about him at length recently as well

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From LEGIT PROSPECTS
Thoughts on Cubs legit Outfielder Kevonte Mitchell?

Kiley McDaniel: Wrote about him here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Interesting upside guy to watch

Comment From Proswagonist
I often see prospects talked about moving from SS to 3B due to lack of range (not arm) then random guy questions if said prospect has the arm for 3B. I’ve always thought SS requires more arm strength. Does shortstop or third base require a stronger arm?

Kiley McDaniel: 55 arm is minimum for SS w/very few exceptions, 50 arm is minimum at 3B w/few exceptions

Comment From Harry Porter and the Voldemalts
Whats your take on the Trepagnier/Salcedo trade? Winner?

Kiley McDaniel: Both were off the list and not in the others for me, but worth keeping an eye on. Salcedo has good tools but bad approach and not much defensive value. Trepagnier is 92-94 w/fringy slider and some projection.

Comment From Natitude Adjuster
When a team acquires a player for “cash considerations,” assuming the player is a meh prospect, approximately how much cash usually changes hands?

Kiley McDaniel: Under $100,000. When it’s a marginal prospect that might be on a release list, it’s often $1, which I laughed at when I learned how common that is.

Comment From Jobu-Cerranos Locker
What are your thoughts on Adrian Rondon and Amed Rosario? I’ve heard great things about Rondon.

Kiley McDaniel: Wrote a lot about both and saw Rondon this fall, included video

Rondon: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Rosario: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Mike P.
Phillies focused on Moncada because this morning, JJ Cooper (of BA) tweeted: “If I’m the Phillies, I’m all in on Moncada. Would be a huge help to a system needing help. Would kick start the rebuilding. Phillies have an elite SS prospect. Moncada would give them an elite prospect at 2B/3B or CF.”

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah but that’s true of literally every team in baseball. That’s not intel on them being any more interested than anyone else.

Comment From Not a Phillies Fan
From MLB.com: “‘We know him well,’ Phillies GM Amaro said Thursday. ‘He’s a very good prospect…. [W]e’re not the only team that would be interested in Yoan Moncada. But that’s all I can say.” Maybe that’s why Phillies fans are so interested. Plus, they have, like, nothing to root for otherwise. DON’T TAKE THIS FROM THEM.

Kiley McDaniel: Fine, keep speculating, Phillies fans!

Comment From Jeb
Do you know of any illegitimate prospects?

Kiley McDaniel: I’m working on a hard-hitting investigative piece on this topic

Comment From Colby
so you’re sayin there’s a chance? Not like a Katy Perry Darkhorse but just a chance they’re in on the talks. Have been mentioned with a lot of other Cuban players but never landed one yet.

Kiley McDaniel: If Juicy J is involved, the Phillies instantly become the favorites to land Moncada.

Kiley McDaniel: Ok that’s all for me, back to the phone