Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 3/31/15
11:58 |
: Hello. Kiley is here.
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12:00 |
Nick is here. |
12:01 |
: Good to hear from you Dr. Nick. Hi everybody.
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12:01 |
Can you remember a draft class where so many top prospects have suffered injuries? |
12:02 |
: I can’t, but it always bothers me when Bill Simmons announces every NFL/NBA season is the craziest one he can remember, so I don’t want to fall into that trap. Maybe it’s the normal amount of injuries, but since this class kinda sucks, we’re just noticing it more since top 10 guys are going down instead of fringy first rounders.
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12:02 |
How do you see an international draft being implemented? |
12:02 |
: Terribly, incorrectly, regretfully, short-sightedly…
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12:03 |
Best guess for a Carlos Correa call up? |
12:03 |
: Maybe September, probably early to mid 2016
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12:03 |
Who’s been the biggest riser in the draft class thus far? |
12:04 |
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12:04 |
Kiley, what do you think the chances are of Corey Seager getting a call up this season? |
12:05 |
: The Dodgers think he can play shortstop and I’m betting they want big league data on that, so if they get a nice lead, I bet Rollins gets a break and they see if that can work. Probably late season, given the IF depth.
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12:05 |
Will we see Lucas Giolito in the majors this year? |
12:05 |
: Seems like I’m just advising people on which prospects to pick in their fantasy leagues at this point
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12:06 |
: High-A and Double-A this year, MLB by middle of 2016 is my guess
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12:06 |
Are the Twins still linked to Wander Javier? How firm are these alleged J2 agreements? |
12:07 |
http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… and here’s what I wrote around this time last year if you want to keep score at home: http://sbb.scout.com/story/…
: They’ve been linked to him for like 6 months. These deals fall apart maybe 5-10% of the time. Here’s my latest on this July 2nd class: |
12:07 |
Any chance Dan Vogelbach plays in the NL? |
12:08 |
: He can fake it at 1B and is trying to improve, but before or once he proves he’s a big league hitter, he likely heads to the AL is my guess
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12:08 |
ETA and expectations for Ryan McMahon (Col)? |
12:09 |
http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…
: You’re in luck because I wrote a bunch of words about this here: If you have another specific prospect question like this, just search for the guy’s name at the top of the page, which for McMahon would bring you here: http://www.fangraphs.com/st… Or go to my top 200 prospects coverage, which will send you in all kinds of directions to find more info: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… |
12:09 |
Alex Meyer: Average starter, elite closer or what? |
12:11 |
http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…
: More on that here: I think closer, but you have to do what MIN is doing and make sure he isn’t a starter. #2/3 starter level stuff, just not sure he can command it for 200 innings |
12:11 |
Do you know what day the next July 2 article will go up? Thanks |
12:11 |
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12:11 |
Kiley – Are there Shane Greene’s out there that never get noticed? |
12:14 |
He has a crazy backstory I wrote about last year: http://sbb.scout.com/story/… where he was drafted off a Juco JV team and only a couple teams even knew his name. Scouts knew he was still learning to pitch with this new velo, then his stuff spiked right around when he was big league ready and getting big league looks. There aren’t guys throwing 93-97 mph with above average stuff and enough command to start that people just aren’t talking about. If there are (like Branden Kline), people are going to talk about him very soon. |
12:16 | : Also, any do you prefer x vs. y top prospects can also reference the top 200 list |
12:16 |
Is Micah Johnson the long term answer for the Pale Hose at 2B or more of a stop gap? |
12:17 |
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12:17 |
How does franklin kilome look? Potential for a big year? |
12:17 | : Wrote a lot about him too, big sleeper for PHI |
12:18 |
Should I interpret FV on a guy like Kyle Seager to be his current skill level? There can’t be much room for improvement. |
12:19 |
: Basically, yes. And there’s some guys like Josh Harrison, who I put a 60 FV on but he just had one 70 FV season (5+ WAR). Either I think he’s worse now (I don’t) or I thought that one season was a little fluky/won’t be replicated. Kudos to the players that prove me wrong.
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12:19 |
if you had to guess, how much of success in the later rounds of the draft is attributable to team team (via scouting/signing strategy) and how much is luck, where a guy becomes something no one expected him to be? |
12:20 |
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12:20 |
What do you think of my dynasty league prospects that are stashed while I am anxiously awaiting their arrival. |
12:21 |
: My opinion affirms your ability to pick prospects and gives you the self confidence to ask out Shelly in Accounting
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12:21 |
better long term: micah johnson or jose peraza? |
12:21 |
: Peraza by a lot
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12:21 |
Bit of a slap in the face to Olt / LaStella / Alcantara for the MLBPA (who represents them) to call it a “bad day for baseball” defending a guy who isn’t even a member of the union yet. |
12:22 |
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12:22 |
What’s the highest draft spot you’ve heard of possibly making a below slot deal? |
12:23 |
: The #1 pick always sigs for below slot since that’s how MLB set it up. Hearing way below slot deals a lot in the 6-10 area already.
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12:23 |
Where do you have Kyle Tucker right now? It seems he’s having a good spring. |
12:24 |
: He’s moving up, but he is far from a consensus guy. Catch him on the right day and those Ted Williams hitting mechanics comps can turn a seasoned scout into a Justin Bieber fangirl.
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12:24 |
Are the phillies going to be players for Yadier Alvarez? |
12:26 |
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12:26 |
Hi Kiley, I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Dalier Hinojosa in spring training. Would you say it’s realistic to think he could be a significant part of the Sox bullpen in the 2nd half of the year? |
12:26 |
: Maybe not significant, but he can contribute
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12:26 |
In a simulation league, I’m deciding between Willy Adames, Chance Sisco, and Jake Thompson. Do Sisco or Adames jump Thompson when you consider the MLB parks that they will play in? |
12:27 |
: Sisco might hit .290 with 15-20 homers and play catcher. Adames is more Yunel Escobar. Jake Thompson is fun, could be closer or #3 starter and is closest to majors. Not sure how your league values those three relative types.
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12:28 |
Could AA be trying to pump up Castro and Osuna to get Phillies interested for a Hammels trade? Hoffman, Castro, Osuna and Pentecost enough to get Phillies interested in the deal?? |
12:28 |
: Man, I’d hope so, that’s a lot of dudes to trade for a guy getting paid the retail price
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12:28 |
What are your thoughts on the Kris Bryant service time thingamabob? Any ideas on how to fix it, if you believe it needs fixing? |
12:31 |
: This is an issues billionaire owners don’t care about, millionaire agents/lawyers care about once every couple years when it affects them and the much less wealthy players that this actually affects have no voice. It’s going to be a political pissing match to fix this, which means it’ll likely be a bandaid. I don’t see it as a huge problem that he’s going to miss 9 games and the union has much bigger fish to fry. There’s literally 1000s of ways to fix this, but who knows if there’s enough incentives to get the involved parties to do it.
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12:31 |
Am I crazy for thinking the Dodgers haven’t firmed up their J2 plans due to Yadier Alvarez’ situation? |
12:33 |
: Well, it was because of Moncada. Didn’t want to commit to 5 kids then have to pull out when Moncada agreed to terms. They’ve had about a month since then, but I don’t think Alvarez isn’t the driving force. If he’s cleared to sign immediately today, the Dodgers can just do what they did with Moncada and offer the most if he waits 3 months, which I think he would do.
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12:33 |
Kiley, who do you think comes out of nowhere in the minors this year to become the next breakout star? |
12:34 |
: Getting a lot of questions like this. If I knew the answer, then I’d rank the guy high and he wouldn’t be coming out of nowhere, he’d be in my top 100 or so. Just read the reports for guys in the top 200 or so and pick a guy where I say upside a lot and that’s as good a guess as mine.
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12:34 |
: Here, I’ll pick one for you. Gilbert Lara with Milwaukee.
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12:34 |
Keone Kela a possible Closer in Texas in 2016? |
12:35 |
: Not quite enough feel/secondary, probably more setup, but closer is possible
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12:35 |
I’ve got friends that live in Greenville, SC. When should I plan a visit to come watch Yoan? |
12:35 |
: Now?
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12:35 |
are the Bluejays linked to any other top internationals after Guerraro?? If they are blowing over their allotment, it only makes sense they go way over right? |
12:36 |
: If you have the money free to do that, sure. Logically, that makes sense, but only one team of the roughly 10 that have done this has actually gone way way over. What makes you think every team will do that now?
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12:36 |
“Seems like I’m just advising people on which prospects to pick in their fantasy leagues at this point” Or giving us validation on who we picked already! |
12:36 |
: This is like a sad therapy group
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12:36 |
Obviously if we had guns to our heads, we’d bet on Kyle being the more successful of the Seagers, because he’s already shown all-star level play. Corey’s upside, even at 3B, is far superior, yes? |
12:37 |
: Why do people in my chats always have guns to their heads?
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12:37 |
Kevin Maitan or Moncada as generational talents? |
12:37 |
: Sounds like both, at this point but projecting a 19 year old all 30 teams have evaluated and made decisions about is easier than than with a 15 year old with much less scrutiny
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12:38 |
: Also, the frequency of questions I get about Maitan implies that many of you are picking a just-turned-15-year-old in your fantasy leagues which is really odd
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12:38 |
You’re already falling into the Bill Simmons trap. Every year the current draft class is down and next year is the greatest in 5 years. |
12:40 |
: Well scouts say every year is down, I like to think I say it’s more average until it’s clear it’s good/bad, if it even is. It’s clearly down this year. Scouts almost never say this draft sucks and they are. And next year is super good, but I feel like I have compelling evidence, I’m not just quoting J-Bug and mentioning three weird games and declaring this year an outlier. Am I?
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12:40 |
Do you think theres a decent chance Tapia is a top 20 prospect by years end? |
12:40 |
: Basically anyone in A-Ball that’s in the top 100 or so could be in the top 20 by next year.
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12:40 |
Yoel Mecias in for a breakout year? |
12:41 |
: Literally any healthy baseball player could have a breakout year in 2015. Am I supposed to be acting like I can tell the future?
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12:41 |
I keep hearing that this is a weak draft class. I’ve heard that about other draft classes too. Historically,, with hindsight being all 20-20 and whatnot, when the consensus has been weak draft class, has it typically turned out that way? In other words, should I believe you that this is a weak draft class? |
12:42 |
: Most classes are indistinguishable from others 10 years later, it’s just that the talent was unsigned HS players or late-blooming late-rounders, with a couple HOF types skewing the results. So, yeah, in a more cosmic sense, a “bad” draft class either doesn’t exist or you can’t know until 15 years later. I guess rather than waiting until 2030 to answer your chat questions, I’m trying to be objectively reasonable and also give you a somewhat useful answer.
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12:42 |
David Berg is a sidearm closer for UCLA. Does some team take a chance on him in the draft? |
12:43 |
: He’ll get drafted and 10% of guys like that make the big leagues, according to my anecdotal WAG
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12:43 |
Who are the Red Sox gonna pick in the draft with pick # 7? |
12:43 |
: I would normally say no one can know that this early, but I actually have reliable information on this coming next week in the draft update.
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12:44 |
Would rather have Norris or Sanchez in the rotation if you’re the Jays? |
12:44 |
: Norris
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12:44 |
Matt Barnes – should one hold out hope he can be a starter or convert him to a reliever now and get it over with? |
12:44 |
: I’d leave him as SP
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12:44 |
How does Brendan Rodgers compare to previous 1-1 picks? Legit or more of a 3-5 overall pick in a “good” draft? |
12:47 |
: Better than Nick Gordon, who went 5th last year, so clearly deserves to be this high, but probably a weaker #1 in the scope of the last 10-15 drafts. Top 3-4 player in almost any draft.
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12:47 |
Has Michael Taylor shown you something this spring? Think he’s making necessary adjustments? |
12:47 |
: Can’t really say that from a handful of ST at bats, since the level of pitching is so varied and guys are working on stuff
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12:48 |
Is Olivera the guy to take over at 3rd once Uribe sucks/ gets hurt? Or is it one of Guerrero or Turner? |
12:48 |
: Olivera takes Uribe’s job if Uribe is healthy. Just not sure when Olivera shows up due to his visa
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12:48 |
Do Steven Moya and/or Yorman Rodriguez figure it out enough to become starting OFs |
12:49 |
: I’d bet one of them does, have them both as 45+ FVs, so they’re both close.
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12:49 |
Where would Victor Sanchez rank on the mariners? |
12:49 |
: Middle part of the list. Didn’t feel right to memorialize the guy by writing a scouting report.
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12:49 |
If the top 200 is fine today, does Kline make a big jump? Has his FV gone up for you? |
12:50 |
: 45+ FV right now, so 143-200 area. Could be 50-100 guy with a handful of starts with that kind of stuff.
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12:50 |
What percentage of big league ball players would be capable of playing other sports professionally if baseball had never been invented? |
12:51 |
: 10-20% i’ll guess
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12:51 |
Kiley, I’d love to see all your chat answers about my favourite team, but somehow 29 out of every 30 questions are about other team’s prospects, and I can’t be bothered to read all those! Is there anything I can do? |
12:51 |
: Hashtag I’m not interested in solving this problem
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12:51 |
Who is more likely to have a more productive season at MLB level, Marco Gonzales or Kevin Gausman? |
12:52 |
: Gausman, I’m on that bandwagon
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12:52 |
Are you a believer in Ryan Cordell to SS? If so, how does that impact his future value? |
12:52 |
: He hasn’t played SS in a regular season game since high school, so I’ll reserve judgement
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12:52 |
Will we see minor leaguers be paid a living wage in the next CBA? Given how much money is floating around the league it seems grotesque not to even tho they don’t have a seat at the table. |
12:54 |
: This should’ve happened a long time ago but why would the union try to help these people? Look at how the NFL is dragging their feet on helping people that their sport paralyzed. Gotta give rich execs PR incentives to be human beings, I guess.
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12:54 |
What I took from your Branden Kline blurb was that Nathan Kirby can throw 102 mph once he loses the Virginia knee-bend. Yep. |
12:54 |
you look pretty OH SO I DIDN’T LOOK PRETTY YESTERDAY |
12:54 |
So, Daz Cameron – eh? what kinda grades would you put on his hit/raw/speed given what you saw? first rounder for you at this point? |
12:55 |
: 55-60 run, 50-55 arm, CF fit, 45-50 power, chance for 50-55 bat, but hasn’t really shown that consistently
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12:55 |
you should invent minor league fantasy baseball |
12:55 |
: I could make literally tens of dollars
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12:56 |
What does Michael Gettys ultimate upside looking like? Carlos Gomez esque? |
12:56 |
: .270, 20 homers, 30 steals, highlight reel defense/arm. Like really really good
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12:56 |
Any big names for the 2016 draft? Need someone to keep my eye on as a Philly fan |
12:57 |
: Teaser: 2015, 2016 and 2017 drafts will get rankings in the coming draft update. July 2 stuff coming. I will rank the contents of your fridge. I’ll rank you loved ones. Grandma should be on waivers. That shirt should be DFA’d. I’ll judge anything in your life for a fee.
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12:57 |
Why do you hate when people ask if a prospect is legit? |
12:59 |
: Because I don’t know what they mean by legit–legit 1st rounder, legit big leaguer, legit star, legit top 100 prospect, legit can’t miss superstar, etc. Ask me something specific and I can answer you something specific, which is why I’m guessing you’re in this chat asking questions. If you just want to be like hey Kiley this guy is good, is he a guy, then i’ll say yes and we can all have fun but that doesn’t actually mean anything…its just you having fun with your pal Kiley. So I’ll answer your legit vague question, but I promise you won’t learn anything. Use #justhavingfun or #idon’tcareabouttheanswer and i’ll answer your vague question with a fun, vague answer. Fair? |
1:00 |
In terms of present “prospects”– what percentage of your knowledge about current guys comes from other sources? It seems like an overlooked aspect of scouting is having extensive connections and being able to tap into that as a resource |
1:01 |
: Most of the guys I write about I’ve seen at some point. Being up to date on what I see and only writing what I see means I need a couple years history and two looks in the last six months or so. Even then, I’ll check with a scout to make sure nothing changed. So, yeah, even me seeing everything I need to see includes talking to someone, so almost every player is a mix of both.
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1:02 |
Why are elite hit tools so rare compared to elite power or elite speed? I mean you NEVER see an 80 future grade on a prospect hit and 70s are really rare too. Is this because it is you have to see them against/have the develop against major league pitching before those grades are thrown on guys? |
1:03 |
: Hit tool is like command. You can notice the elements of it, but it comes down to proving it, or else the elements don’t matter quite so much. You can’t project more than a couple guys as .300 hitters in the big leagues before you see them hit a little in the big leagues. Same for command.
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1:03 |
Are the Rangers going to be big players in this J2 class or do they wait another year to go over? |
1:03 |
: They’re gonna spend, not sure if they’re going to go over, tho
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1:04 |
On Greene I was referring to his backstory and if there could be major league quality players that skip through the cracks (never get drafted). It sounds like you don’t think that is possible. |
1:04 |
: In America, probably not. Internationally, definitely.
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1:04 |
What was your take on the Olivera signing? (apologize if I missed it). |
1:05 |
: It was all on twitter. He got the years, upfront money and big number, and no one thought he’d get all three, but the Dodgers decided they wanted him and could afford it, so they made sure they got him. Probably a little more than they had to pay, but in the scheme of things, $45M and $63M isn’t that different to them and $45M includes a chance they don’t get the player.
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1:05 |
Kolby Allard, where do you think he falls in the draft because of the injury and what do you think his velocity could be as he physically matures? |
1:05 |
: Probably still top 10 if he throws well before the draft. I’d expect 91-95 t97 at maturity.
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1:06 |
When’s the Pirates’ Evaluating the Prospects article coming out? |
1:06 |
: Tomorrow, then Royals and Giants after them later this week
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1:06 |
What historical prospect would you most enjoyed getting the chance to scout? |
1:06 |
: Bo Jackson
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1:06 |
Does Baez’ value take a hit for his demotion? NO FV was provided for him in your write up. What would you give him for FV? |
1:07 |
: Another teaser: I’m going to run through all the lists once I finish them and update some grades, add/subtract traded guys and do the 27 & under for every team like I have recently.
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1:07 |
Who do you think has a bigger probability of busting? Baez or Gallo? |
1:08 |
: I’m the low guy on Baez so I think they’re really darn close.
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1:08 |
Have scouts soured a bit on Stephen Piscotty? Is there a plan for him to play with STL, or does he have better luck if he gets traded to an org that will allow him to compete for a spot? |
1:08 |
: He’s in my top 100 so I hope not
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1:08 |
Given the lack of high end talent, any chance Aiken goes 1-1 and agrees to something like $3-$4 million? |
1:09 |
: less than 1% chance
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1:09 |
Would you prefer if baseball fans were less into fantasy and more into gambling and you were constantly getting questions about point spreads and over/unders instead of “whos a good sleeper?” |
1:09 |
: Those both sounds kinda terrible
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1:09 |
Do scouts ever ask players how they felt about facing a certain pitcher? It seems like it would be important to do this to identify guys with deception? |
1:09 |
: Yep
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1:09 |
Is Vlad Jr. eligible this year? |
1:10 | : well, on July 2nd but yes |
1:10 |
Based on pure stuff alone, where would a healthy Jeff Hoffman rank among pitching prospects? It seems like only guys like Giolito and Bradley.. Etc are in that two 70 pitch area |
1:10 |
: Healthy, peak Hoffman is way better than current Bradley, Giolito is pretty close.
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1:11 |
Hi Kiley. |
1:11 |
: Oh no.
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1:11 |
You seem higher than most about Gilbert Lara, did you see him recently? Any update on your evalution? |
1:11 | : I wrote him up last week, so probably not: |
1:11 |
Baseball America’s farm system rankings. Without spoiling, are they similar to what yours will be, or are there wild differences? |
1:12 |
: I don’t know what mine are yet, so it’ll be a surprise to everyone
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1:12 |
You’re getting really existential with some of your answers about projection, upside, predictions. You are a beautiful peacock and you need to spread your wings. |
1:13 |
: I guess I’m disillusioned from the expert culture where I’m supposed to know everything and never look back at past predictions or question if my methods are right or think about the process
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1:13 |
: That said, I know who will be the 2016 republican nominee and my logical is infallible
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1:14 |
is it true Yanks botched Moncado negiotations somehow? |
1:17 |
– He’s the best 19 year old baseball player in the world – they have all the money – they didn’t get him – their rival did – their rival offered 25% more than NYY offered…of the thing that they have a near unlimited amount of. – NYY immediately started spinning this news to the media for damage control since everyone knows these facts. I list things, you decide! |
1:17 |
Did the Yankees go crazy in the J2 class one year two early? Is there class disappointing in that they didn’t land any of the top 2 or 3 prospects? |
1:18 |
: They did it a year too late because then they would’ve only had a 1 year penalty and could’ve done it again
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1:18 |
Kiley, are any of your scouting reports from previous years available online anywhere? I’d love to know what you thought about Bogaerts or Polanco or other young players who weren’t eligible for this year’s prospect list. Apologies if I just suck at googling. |
1:19 |
scout.com (little bit of everything) and ESPN (2012 draft and MILB) and BP (only Sano’s J2 class) for my past stuff.
: Only did reports for every system starting this year. I did draft and selected minor league guys in the past, so didn’t do everyone and only the last few years since I was working for teams. Look at |
1:19 |
Do you ever suspect prospects come in here and ask questions about themselves? |
1:20 |
: I don’t know JEFF HOFFMAN do you??!!
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1:20 |
What was the “best defensive play I’ve ever seen” in your Lewis Brinson blurb? (See, I read the links!) |
1:20 |
: ranging into short RCF on a line drive for a diving catch, then doubling off a runner at 2B.
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1:20 |
I can’t wait until 2030 gets here and I can criticize you for undervaluing this draft class. It’s on my calendar! |
1:21 |
Assuming in 2017 that Simmons is a fixture at SS, and Peraza takes over 2B, do you think that the Braves will move Albies to another position? CF? |
1:22 |
: Oh, don’t worry about this. These things work themselves out. Profar got hurt, Brees went to New Orleans. Maybe Simmons is expensive and gets traded, maybe Peraza sucks. Anything can happen.
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1:22 |
When people say that this draft is sub-par does that usually refer to the top end (1-15), the depth (1-~100), or both? |
1:23 |
: I don’t know what those people mean, but I did some research on this for a team and the depth of a draft, defined by the reports we had before the draft, is only the top 15-20 players. They’re all the same, on the broad scale of overall talent, even to the scouts after that. You’ll hear people talk about the depth of this draft being better because look at these guys that went in the 2nd round and that guys is the guy that will say global warming isn’t real because it’s cold today. His name is Glenn. Glenn is the worst.
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1:24 |
: That’s my time. Off to finish the PIT list and end my nightmare of all these stupid lists. Then I’ll be freed up to write other lists!
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Kiley McDaniel has worked as an executive and scout, most recently for the Atlanta Braves, also for the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates. He's written for ESPN, Fox Sports and Baseball Prospectus. Follow him on twitter.