Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 3/3/15 by Kiley McDaniel March 3, 2015 12:07 Kiley McDaniel: Insert snappy intro here 12:07 Comment From Mike Gee for Profar, who says no? 12:07 Kiley McDaniel: AMERICA 12:07 Comment From Jimmer What are your thoughts on Funkhouser? 12:08 Kiley McDaniel: Seen him 5 or 6 times. Without fail, every time he’s been 91-95 t97, 55-60 SL, 50 CH, command flashes 50, solid chance to be #3 starter, but still some feel issues here and there. I’d guess 8-15 in the first round if he keeps this up. 12:09 Comment From mtsw How would you describe your role on the Jason Garcia hype train? Do you drive the train? Did you build the train? Or do you merely ride said train? 12:09 Kiley McDaniel: Well I didn’t draft him or tell Baltimore to draft him, so I didn’t build or drive the train. Maybe I was yelling at the conductor to speed up? 12:09 Comment From Richard Lucas Sims make it to the Top 25 overall prospects listing next year? Can Foltynewicz break camp as the #5 starter for the Braves? 12:10 Kiley McDaniel: Anything is possible with pitching prospects, man. 12:10 Comment From Dallas While the July 2nd updates are much appreciated and great work on your part, it’s March 3rd. Will you finish each MLB team look before Opening Day? 12:10 Kiley McDaniel: If you mean team prospect lists, yes. Dodgers tomorrow, Blue Jays probably Friday. 12:12 Comment From Mark Kiley, what are your thoughts on Dakota Donovan, 2016 prep from Utah? Will the velocity catch up to his size? 12:12 Kiley McDaniel: I’ve seen him up to 89 with a solid breaking ball and he’s enormous, so I’d guess yes. 12:13 Comment From Derek I read your recent J2 article and I know you’re coming out with another one on teams looking to spend up to their pools. Have you learned of any clubs, besides the ones that can’t, which are looking to spend no money on J2 guys? 12:14 Kiley McDaniel: That isn’t exactly the hot buzz and I assume you mean only signing smaller 12:14 Comment From JB21 Do you plan on hammering out the final 10 teams over the next couple weeks? Selfishly asking b/c I have my keeper league draft coming up in 2 weeks… haha. 12:14 Kiley McDaniel: Yep, the research is done, just have to write them all. 12:17 Comment From Riley A lot of draft talk on the net lately, even some mock drafts Ive seen. Kiley can you see our Michigan boy Nick Plummer getting inside the top 15 picks this June? 12:18 Kiley McDaniel: Definitely possible. And dont read mock draft this early. They are completely useless. Some scouting directors haven’t even seen the players people are projecting them to take. 12:18 Comment From Kingpin Aledmys Diaz is still something of an unknown quantity. What can you tell us about him? Was there anything to be gained from the fact he hit well when he was able to play last year? But that was in an very good offensivge environment. 12:18 Kiley McDaniel: Shoulder was bothering him on both sides of the ball, but he’s healthy for this year and will play shortstop. Still didn’t hit bad even when hurt. 12:19 Comment From Pale Hose I just want to know the Cistulli’s baby name. 12:19 Kiley McDaniel: You’ll have to ask him, but all the clues are there for the curious to figure it out. 12:19 Comment From EC Could Giolito pitch in the majors effectively today? 12:19 Kiley McDaniel: Depends on what you mean by effectively. Probably not. 12:21 Comment From Donald Who is the best non Dominican, Cuban or Venezuelan 2015-2016 Latin prospect you know of? 12:21 Kiley McDaniel: If Lucius Fox of the Bahamas gets declared int’l eligible, he’s the easy answer to this. 12:21 Comment From Fredbird Which of these 3 do you think will have the highest career WAR: Mags Sierra; Gilberto Lara; or Kevin Maitan? 12:22 Kiley McDaniel: I won’t rank a 15 year old versus two professional players but I’d take Lara over Sierra. 12:22 Comment From Mountain Man Jim This here the prospectors’ chat? Hoo-wee, ah made it just in time! Now then, where kin a feller find some of that thar gold? 12:24 : This guy will take any excuse to shoot in the sky and dance 12:25 Comment From Nate Any type of reports on 1b Cuban defector Lazaro Alonso? Is he the type of prospect teams will go into the IFA restrictions for? 12:25 Kiley McDaniel: Nope 12:25 Comment From Vic Draft question for ya’ll Kiley, can Alex Young from TCU get a little helium come draft time and sneak into the 1st round? 12:25 Kiley McDaniel: If the velo ticks up a notch, yes. More sandwich to 2nd round if not. 12:25 Comment From Dallas Any further updates on 15-year old Dominicans who won’t see the Major Leagues before 2020 or can you go back to finishing the team prospect lists 12:26 Kiley McDaniel: Dave? 12:26 Comment From Kingpin I just want to say how mucj I appreciate all the content, knowledge, information, and inste that you provide us. The knowledge & info you provide are incredibly high quality. Nice job by you. 12:26 Kiley McDaniel: No but? This must be your first chat. 12:26 Comment From Mike P. A Kiley chat on a Tuesday!? With no new prospect lists out. The Fangraphs Universe (haha, FU) is losing all structure. 12:27 Kiley McDaniel: It’s crazy, but I’ll be Tuesdays from now on so chat doesn’t keep me from traveling for Friday draft matchups 12:27 Comment From Guest Team aren’t suppose to scout Cuba, but do they anyways? Do they just give a local scout money in a shady way? 12:28 Kiley McDaniel: They wouldn’t risk that. They just do int’l tourneys. 12:28 Comment From Twinkies Can I count on Adam Walker ever figuring out his contact issues? Also, is Trevor May likely to become a useful starting for the Twins? 12:28 Kiley McDaniel: Both are solid maybe’s! I’d say no and yes but backend. 12:28 Comment From Charlie Sheens Dead Arm Have you had a chance to see Mikey White? Seems his stats don’t show his full impact on the game. 12:29 Kiley McDaniel: He’s a solid across the board type that can stick at SS. all 50’s and some 55’s. Good player. sandwich to 2nd with a good spring. 12:29 Comment From Walt Ian Happ – is he top 20 pick and what dose he need to do do hold on to a similar draft position? 12:29 Kiley McDaniel: He’s playing RF right now but he might be able to play 2B in pro ball. Probably 10-20 right now, maybe top 10 if he gets hot. 12:29 Comment From Indians With Michael Bourn likely on the downside of his career, is Tyler Naquin a possible replacement with a strong showing in 2015? 12:29 Kiley McDaniel: Yes 12:29 Comment From GSon Does Mantuela’s injury/health issue (Spondylosis) put him in line for a significant drop on draft day? 12:30 Kiley McDaniel: Not in this crappy draft class 12:30 Comment From Mike Beyond the top 50, which arms have the highest upside? 12:30 Kiley McDaniel: In general, the ones at the lowest pro levels. 12:31 Comment From Colby Will you be able to go a full chat on 3 days rest? 12:31 Kiley McDaniel: I cooked a full mean during the first half of the chat so you tell me 12:31 Comment From Bris Kryant Who has the best profile, based on offense only, of D.J. Stewart, Gio Brussa, Chris Shaw and Richie Martin? 12:31 Kiley McDaniel: Martin is clearly last, other three are all close. I’d go Shaw, Stewart, Brusa. 12:32 Comment From Matt Are many FV’s due to ETA? Are you hesitant to give Barreto higher than a 50 because of his tools or because he’s a couple years out with considerable risk? 12:32 Kiley McDaniel: Both. FV encompasses everything. 12:32 Comment From Rangers How do you feel about the chances of Luke Jackson figuring it out his second time through AAA? 12:32 Kiley McDaniel: If you mean becoming #3 starter then not too bullish, probbaly ends up as backend guy or 8th/9th inning reliever 12:32 Comment From Cole Who would be the best comp. for Brendan Rodgers? 12:33 Kiley McDaniel: Not an easy one, but the people that like him note some similarities to Tulo. Generally similar to last year’s top prep SS, also from Orlando area, Nick Gordon…but Rodgers is a RHH, has more bat speed/power, less physical projection and less arm…so more just generally the same caliber of player than really the same. 12:34 Comment From Kiley Lrig Eman Why are Cuban amateurs valued higher than Dominican/Venezuelan amateurs? Not the guys that go straight to the big leagues, more guys like Baldoquin and Lopez. Is the track record that much better? 12:35 Kiley McDaniel: Some teams don’t like giving big money to 16 year olds with limited game experience, from the owner level. Every team is okay with signing a 19+ year old Cuban guy their scouts have seen in a bunch of high level games and that is closer to the big leagues. Having a good run of Cubans also helps. 12:35 Comment From John What do you take from Alex Anthopoulous’ talk of Osuna and Castro in the bullpen? Could they end up there long term and what do they offer there? 12:35 Kiley McDaniel: Could. Castro has been chance to start, both flash plus stuff. 12:35 Comment From Giants I’ve heard rumblings of Mella overtaking Crick as the best arm on SF’s farm. Is this true? Where do you see Mella in 2015, 2016, and beyond? 12:35 Kiley McDaniel: Won’t on my rankings but he’s getting close. 12:36 Comment From Walt what prospects should i check out from the American Conference. Happ is the hometown guy and Houston is good (but doesnt come to Cincy) 12:37 Kiley McDaniel: Lemoine, Weigel, Survance, Rice from Houston. Happ from Cincy. Gibault from Tulane. Tripp from UCF. Best 2016 is Lantrip at Houston, Best 2017s are Wong at Houston and Marsh/Finfrock at UCF. 12:38 Comment From Kyle Any thoughts on Sean Newcomb? Future #3 or maybe more? 12:38 Kiley McDaniel: Wrote a bunch about him here. Chance for even more than that: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… 12:38 Comment From dodgerblue how do the mets make room for syndergaard after the super 2 deadline and in what role? 12:39 Kiley McDaniel: They need to need him first. Maybe pen if no rotation spots open. Montero may have first dibs on rotation spot anyway. 12:39 Comment From Saxophone Read anything into Moncada’s deal not being announced yet? 12:39 Kiley McDaniel: Not yet 12:39 Comment From Colby Any chance Corey Seager breaks camp with the ml team? 12:39 Kiley McDaniel: Very low 12:39 Comment From Thomas You talked about Olson breifly in evaluating the prospects article (so awesome by the way!), but could you give anymore info on what you think he ends up being as a major leaguer? does he have 30+ HR power with a good OBP or does he end up as a platoon type? 12:40 Kiley McDaniel: .250/.340 and 20ish homers I’d guess is his optimistic outcome. That’s an everyday guy but if he comes in just below or regresses, it’s pretty fringy. 12:40 Comment From Rays Will Ryan Brett ever seize hold of the starting 2B job? Seems like he has a ton of internal competition. 12:41 Kiley McDaniel: in 2016, maybe. Grinder with solid tools, don’t want to count him out. 12:41 Comment From Kenneth Opinion on Magneuris Sierra? 12:41 Kiley McDaniel: One scout said if you dream, you can see some Carlos Gonzalez. High risk/upside. 12:41 Comment From Hello How Big is the gap between Maitan and guys like Abraham Gutierrez, Starling Heredia or and American like Ronald Washington? 12:43 Kiley McDaniel: Still super early on all these guys. Maitan over Gutierrez but still pretty close. Heredia right there with both of them as top guys in a class, but more certainty given Heredia’s age. Washington hasn’t been scouted as much since he’s a US prep underclassman, but his tools are in the general vicinity, probably behind these three but not by much. 12:43 Comment From Enrique Iglesias How much trade value in the MLB does Vogelbach currently have? Would an AL team like Tampa view him as a viable piece in trade talks? 12:43 Comment From Ron Santo Is Cj Edwards a reliever for good? 12:44 Kiley McDaniel: Good news! I wrote about both of these things at length: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… Edwards is starter until he can’t and I think he might be able to. Vogelbach is a solid 150-200 on my top 200 prospects list, so yes there’s trade value. 12:44 Comment From mtsw Will the Dan Duquette-to-Blue Jays situation make it difficult for the Orioles to attract good front office personnel in the future? Is there a perception in the league that they aren’t a good organization to work for (as seemed to exist before Duquette/Showlater were hired?) 12:45 Kiley McDaniel: Baltimore was a job no one wanted, just look at how many people turned down the interview before Duquette took it. It’s still seen as a tough situation with Angelos/Showalter as powerful figures, but the team is good, so it’s seen better now than before. That said, the core players are about to get expensive in the next year or two, so some think Duquette saw a chance to get out before the team got worse due to limited payroll to keep everyone around. 12:46 Comment From Jared Hello Kiley. 12:46 Kiley McDaniel: Ugh. 12:46 Comment From Ron Santo Has Bundy lost some of his shine of previous years? Still the Ace ceiling? 12:46 Comment From Orioles Is Zach Davies one of those guys that may outperform his prospect status? Everything that i have read (great poise, great change, great control) seems to suggest that he is a no-doubt starter. How does he reach the next level? 12:47 Kiley McDaniel: It didn’t publish for some reason but I was asked a Bundy question as well. I’m big on Davies and think he’s a slam dunk #4 starter if he stays healthy, maybe more. Bundy has lost a little prospect shine but it’s early enough after surgery he could still take another step or two forward. http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… 12:47 Comment From Mike P. How often does an “out of nowhere” (pre-season) guy jump onto first the 2-3 rounds of a draft? Basically, how do guys that you weren’t really expected (and possibly never heard of) before the year started get draft in the first 100 picks? 12:49 Kiley McDaniel: They get better? if I can make a top 100 for the draft in October, that means I have another 100-200 guys that were in contention or that I know about. All the pop up guys I’ve heard about this year have been in that 250-300 mega-list of draft players. Some come from completely off the radar like Nick Wells last year, but that’s usually under 5 per draft class. 12:49 Kiley McDaniel: Wells didn’t go to many events and went from like 82-85 in the fall to flashing 89-93 in the spring. You can’t predict that. 12:49 Comment From Matthew With all the hype surrounding Mazara, how come there’s little talk of his considerable struggles against LHP? He owns a career .194/.290/.276 slash over 317 PA, with 4 HR, a 53.1% GB%, 32.2% K% and the BABIP says it’s not unlucky (.289). What in his skill set portends he’ll figure this out? 12:51 Kiley McDaniel: He’s 19, raked in Double-A and has 30 HR power. People that can do those things tend to be good baseball players and are able make adjustments. He was supposed to be in high school and rookie ball last year by age but he was tearing up AA. 12:52 Kiley McDaniel: In fact, go find the list of guys that fit those three criteria. It’s probably less than 10 players in the last 25 years. 12:52 Comment From Stevie Frachise Where’s Jeff? 12:52 Kiley McDaniel: He’s been taken care of 12:52 Comment From neal has there ever been analysis of J2 signings like people have done with draft signings, in terms of expected return? 12:53 Kiley McDaniel: The complete list of signings with bonuses going far enough back to make conclusions is private to MLB teams. Teams have done this analysis. 12:53 Comment From Sean You have Robbie Ray listed as a 40 FV and I can’t see any writeups on him (I believe he got traded after your AZ post but before your DET post). He was highly regarded before falling – is there potential to improve his ceiling still? What would he need? 12:53 Kiley McDaniel: Likely a reliever, power lefty arm with limited off-speed and command. 12:53 Comment From Derek Do you have a schedule for the Team Top Prospect lists even if it’s a non-date specific one? Maybe order is the better word. 12:54 Kiley McDaniel: Nope! Freestyle, bro. Dodgers and Blue Jays this week, then other ones next week. 12:54 Comment From Stevie Frachise Any dec college kids on that Tampa div II team that beat the Phillies? 12:54 Kiley McDaniel: UT is a perennial D2 title type team and they always have lots of D1 transfers and usually about 5 draftable guys per year, but they don’t have a huge draft guy this year 12:55 Comment From mtsw Were you a GM, would you prefer to have the 5th overall pick in the draft or the 20th pick + a compensatory pick? 12:55 Kiley McDaniel: Totally depends on the players available but in general I’d want 5th 12:55 Comment From Guest Imagine a scenario in which we could objectively determine that someone is the best fantasy baseball player of all-time. Would a front office be smart to bring them on as a consultant for roster construction? How much do you think the organization would pay that person? 12:56 Kiley McDaniel: This sounds like a pitch for the most boring movie of all-time 12:56 Comment From Hello What’s the biggest reason Dillon Tate is moving up draft boards? Any other big risers into the top 15 so far? 12:56 Kiley McDaniel: He’s an athlete with big stuff that had never started. Now we know the stuff plays in long outing and he can hold his velo and his command has improved. Kinda answered every big question in a few outings. 12:56 Comment From Chet I may be alone in this thought, but I feel like Tyrell Jenkins was the real “get” in the Jason Heyward trade for the Braves. Am I overrating Jenkins, or is he a possible 1/2 starter in the future, whereas Shelby Miller is more of a 4/5? 12:57 Kiley McDaniel: I still think Miller is a #3, Jenkins more #3/4 with a chance he’s 8th/9th inning relief http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… 12:58 Comment From Jim Thoughts on 2016 RHP Anthony Molina from FL? 12:59 Kiley McDaniel: Loose arm, up to 96 mph, flashes two 50+ off-speed pitching, feel comes and goes. Checks a lot of boxes, but narrow frame so many not add much strength and stuff/command varies a good bit right now. Super young, though. 12:59 Comment From arp what are your thoughts on dom smith? does he ever get enough power to stick at 1b? 1:00 Kiley McDaniel: Has the power already, that’s why he went 10th overall, just needs to hit (doing that) and hit for power in games (having some trouble) to make it all work. That’s the last thing that comes for young hitters, so don’t freak out yet. http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… 1:00 Comment From Chet Does Tyrell Jenkins pitch for the Braves this season? I see a guy that could skyrocket up prospect lists if he’s healthy all season long… 1:01 Kiley McDaniel: Tend to agree, but probably not up this year unless very late. 1:01 Comment From Yetty Get any sense on when Ibanez might sign? 1:01 Kiley McDaniel: His camp has been very quiet 1:01 Comment From Blackoutrestrictions If Julio Urias’s eye just closed up forever, is there any chance he could still pitch without depth perception? 1:01 Kiley McDaniel: Last I checked, I’m still not a doctor. 1:02 Comment From Matthew A number of teams originally had Cowart as a pitcher back when he was drafted. If he does make that transition, what is known about what he’s working with and what kind of upside does he have? Will he pitch strictly out of the bullpen because of so much developmental time lost? 1:03 Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like a majority of teams has him as a pitcher, and in the top 50 picks. I think he makes the move, but LAA will give him all of 2015 to figure out the bat. He’ll start in the pen and it’s normal for hard-throwing conversion guys to get TJ due to new stresses to an arm used to playing in the field. I’d lower expectations. 1:03 Comment From hogindapoti Matt Davidson? does he get a shot this year? 1:03 Kiley McDaniel: As long as he hits, yes http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… 1:03 Comment From Jordan What are your thoughts on Nick Banks and Ryan Boldt? Who has the bigger upside? Are they the best bats in college baseball? 1:04 Kiley McDaniel: Might be the top two college bats for 2016. Boldt slight edge due to CF fit and 50 raw, Banks is above average across the board 1:04 Comment From john Archie Bradley going to bounce back, out is he backbend starter/bullpen? 1:05 Kiley McDaniel: People are piling on the Bradley to the pen bandwagon, so this is a huge year for him to prove them wrong. Not sure where I fall yet. 1:05 Comment From GSon In as few words as you can muster..How does the inequities of the Cuban invasion and the International Free Agent mess get resolved to the satisfaction of ALL MLB clubs? 1:05 Kiley McDaniel: LOL I don’t write short things 1:05 Comment From Guest If an all inclusive draft happened, would this just hurt 16 year old Latin kids? I mean taking a 16 year old over a college or high school player is hard to dom 1:06 Kiley McDaniel: This is one of a zillon problems with this plan. One group is older, more scouted, more proven in games and has college as leverage…and the other side has none of that. 1:06 Comment From failed academic Trying to read too much into yesterday’s article, so I’ll just ask: it sounds like the Dodgers might not blow it out on j2. If somehow Alvarez is available to sign before July, do you think chances are good the Dodgers wait a year? 1:06 Kiley McDaniel: Don’t read into it. They haven’t decided. That means they might or might not. I tend to think they will. 1:07 Comment From The Big Dipper Who will end up with the better career – Brady Aiken or Clay Aiken? 1:07 Kiley McDaniel: I guess we need Brady to run for congress first to know for sure http://www.cbsnews.com/news… 1:07 Comment From DP92 Ben Badler recently stated that the Red Sox likely have the best under-25 talent. I was wondering if you agree with that assessment. If not, which teams rank above the Sox? I am guessing the Cubs, Dodgers, and Angels are among the best in the league. 1:08 Kiley McDaniel: It’s not a chat until Badler or Law comes up, gotta get those guys some shine. I haven’t added it up, but I’ll do things like this when the lists are done. 1:09 Comment From Guest Would you work for a mlb team evr again? 1:09 Kiley McDaniel: I will, just a matter of when. 1:09 Comment From john Velasquez- just a question of staying healthy? 1:09 Kiley McDaniel: Yeah but the medical is 3 inches thick so that’s a big question 1:09 Comment From Guest Is Jeff taking Fridays then? 1:10 Kiley McDaniel: I think so 1:10 Comment From Matthew Are there enough believers within the org that Zagunis will be able to develop average receiving tools to make it to the bigs as a catcher? How about outside the org? 1:10 Kiley McDaniel: Tend to think he’ll move to LF, but it’s possible he sticks 1:11 Comment From DW Any news on a young pitcher named Henry Rowengartner? I hear the Cubs are looking at him. 1:11 Kiley McDaniel: Big arm, pitching coach is bad influence, hot ice is good idea 1:11 Comment From Jim Do you see Greg Veliz projecting better on the mound or in field? 1:11 Kiley McDaniel: Probably mound, but still early; bat isn’t bad 1:11 Comment From Derek Have you heard anything about Kyler Murray and if he’d seriously accept a signing bonus to play baseball instead of going to Texas A&M? Too early to tell? 1:12 Kiley McDaniel: Wrote a bunch about him back in October http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… Sounds like he’ll be open to taking big money in the top 15 picks if his talent warrants that. Still early to know if that’ll happen. 1:12 Comment From Mike Trout 80 FV Sherman Johnson Cistulli 1:13 Comment From Matthew Any information on guys like Dedgar Jimenez and Daniel Gonzalez in Boston or Domingo Acevedo for the Yanks? 1:13 Kiley McDaniel: Acevedo hit 100 mph, so I’d take him http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… 1:14 Kiley McDaniel: Lots of questions on guys I’ve already written up in the team lists. Either check that above link and change the name of the team or go to the player’s page on FG and look for Evaluating The Prospects link. 1:14 Comment From DW who do you think will have the better career for the Cubs, Henry Rowengartner or Chet Steadman? 1:15 Kiley McDaniel: Chet’s elbow popped to a classic 80’s guitar riff SO YOU TELL ME https://www.youtube.com/wat… 1:16 Comment From Mike P. Was too much made of the Phillies losing on Sunday (to the D2 school)? The way some (national) writers reacted, you would have thought the Phillies ran their starting 9 and Hamels out there. 1:17 Kiley McDaniel: It’s a practice baseball game 1:17 Comment From Kyle I read somewhere the Moncada deal might be in trouble… Heard anything? 1:17 Kiley McDaniel: I’ve found “somewhere” to be the least reputable media outlet when it comes to reports 1:17 Comment From Texas You recently listed the top 5 potential bonuses for July 2. All five guys you mention are from the DR. Who in your opinion are the top 2 or 3 guys from Venezuela this year? 1:17 Kiley McDaniel: They will be in the next article. DR a little better at the top this year, but VZ may have the top two players next year. 1:18 Comment From Texas Granted it’s early, but based on what you’ve seen or heard if the draft took place today what round would pitcher Josh Staumont likely go? 1:18 Kiley McDaniel: 2nd-3rd just due to raw arm talent. 1:18 Comment From Mike Is Daz Cameron all hype or is there actual huge upside there? 1:18 Kiley McDaniel: He’s a mid first rounder comparable to mid first rounder last year Derek Hill. 1:18 Comment From Barrett Rank these SS prospects please: Albies, Arcia, Rosario, Barreto. 1:19 Kiley McDaniel: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… 1:19 Comment From Zach How often do people assume you’re a girl? 1:19 Kiley McDaniel: Usually not after the second date 1:20 Kiley McDaniel: Alright that’s all for now. Heading to FG House tomorrow, which should be the nerdiest thing I’ve ever done.