Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 4/28/15

12:06
Kiley McDaniel: I’m in Nashville right now, so let’s have a country music theme to this week’s chat. Just kidding, that would be terrible.

12:09
Comment From John
Come to Memphis sometime: far better food, music, and history than the overrated Nashville. I’ll even buy you some Memphis BBQ.

12:10
Kiley McDaniel: Almost went there during the opening series of the year to see Iowa (Bryant, Russell, Baez). Got ribs at Rendezvous last time I was there, when I saw Shelby Miller in AAA in 2012 for ESPN.

12:10
Comment From Pale Hose
In general, does org filler know it is org filler?

12:11
Kiley McDaniel: I know I don’t ask them that, but usually around their 3rd or 4th year they figure out who is getting the attention, who is on prospect lists, etc.

12:11
Comment From Guest
Does Bradley Zimmer have the tools to go 25/25 in the majors?

12:12
Kiley McDaniel: more 20/20 upside, by the time he’s up and producing

12:12
Comment From Curtis
Any recent minor league trips you’d care to comment on?

12:13
Kiley McDaniel: Talked about Montgomery/Mobile on the podcast, went to see Mobile’s arms (Shipley, Blair, Yoan Lopez) and will go see Chattanooga soon (Sano, Buxton, etc.). Only other pro games I’ve been to so far have been Gwinnett (Folty, Wisler, Banuelos, Peraza) and I think I talked about those on the pod as well. Grabbing looks at some draft guys before seasons end right now, mostly prep.

12:13
Comment From thoros of myr
heard the White Sox linked with anyone at #8? i don’t think you’ve mentioned them in any of your draft writeups.

12:14
Kiley McDaniel: They like Fulmer, mentioned that in the buzz portion here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

12:14
Comment From Forsyth
You hear anything on when the Red Sox are planning on moving Moncada to Greenville?

12:14
Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t heard, but would guess within a few weeks, which will be when I go to Greenville as well

12:14
Comment From Country is indeed terrible
Have you seen or spoken to anyone who’s seen Tyler Duffey this year? Where are all of these extra strikeouts coming from? New pitch, uptick in velocity or just random fluky April noise?

12:15
Kiley McDaniel: Making a point of seeing him and Berrios pitch in the games I see of Chattanooga

12:15
Comment From Colby
Heading to the DR/punta cana in august, its my understanding so far there wont be much going on in terms of baseball. Anything you could recommend if there’s any leagues, games, events, worth checking out?

12:15
Kiley McDaniel: In August all you have is the end of the DSL season and that isn’t exactly tourist friendly. Enjoy the beach!

12:16
Comment From nunez
What do you think of Roman Quinn’s chances of cracking the top 100 this year?

12:16
Kiley McDaniel: Needs to really hit and stay healthy

12:16
Comment From Ben
Can Jace Peterson be a regular or is he more of a utility player?

12:16
Kiley McDaniel: What I wrote in the org prospect lists is fringe regular but he’s always hit, so wouldn’t shock me if he turned into a 50 FV guy (which is low-end everyday guy)

12:17
Comment From Clarence
Kiley, any buzz on Tyrone Perry as a draft prospect this year? His body type is “interesting”

12:17
Kiley McDaniel: 60 raw and a larger frame from the south half of Florida…there some Vogelbach here but the feel to hit and looseness to the swing isn’t there. I’d expect to see Tyrone head to FSU and DH for 3-4 years.

12:18
Comment From Vslyke
Peraza’s BB/K numbers in AAA look good thus far. Any idea if his timetable has accelerated since your writeup?

12:18
Kiley McDaniel: Hasn’t accelerated, but only because he was due to come up at some point this year already

12:18
Comment From Jack Elliott
AJ Cole is making his debut today. Should we get excited?

12:18
Kiley McDaniel: It’s nicer for AJ if you keep expectations low. Same goes for me.

12:20
Comment From nunez
Is Austin Hedges start to the year at the plate the real deal or PCL inflated?

12:20
Kiley McDaniel: Have a couple emails to see if anyone I know has seen him yet. Numbers are good, even for the PCL, but it’s 60 PA and he had enormous problems before, so I need to hear a scout tell me something has changed before anything in the projection changes.

12:21
Comment From Mike
I would love a report on E-Rod now that his stuff looks to be “officially” ticked up, how would you grade out his pitchers and FV now? Is his upside considerably higher?

12:21
Kiley McDaniel: I was about as aggressive as you could be with him already, so the report stands.

12:21
Comment From Jays Fan II
Which Blue Jay has the brighter future, Castro or Osuna?

12:21
Kiley McDaniel: I ranked Castro higher and I’ll stick with that http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

12:22
Comment From Los
I know this isn’t a fantasy chat but just needed to vent. I somehow drafted Gomez, Puig, Rendon, Wainwright, Holland, Jansen, Wright, Iwakuma with my first 8 picks (and Stroman and McCarthy later). Tell me all the Pirates prospects suddenly jumped 10 points in FV to make me feel better.

12:22
Kiley McDaniel: They didn’t and it suddenly started raining!

12:22
Comment From Bernie Brewer
Coulter’s swing looks like it has smoothed out this year – have you heard any positive buzz on him?

12:23
Kiley McDaniel: Another guy that has a nice stat uptick this year and some tools that I’m curious if it’s for real. Will catch him on my FSL loop in another month.

12:23
Comment From Alan
Kind of a big picture question about the Braves. I’m one that didn’t really feel the overhaul was necessary. But being that the front office did, do you think they really got enough in return? There just doesn’t seem to be many potential stars in the Atlanta system still, even though the depth is unquestionably better.

12:26
Kiley McDaniel: It was necessary. The core was going to be split up in a year or two and the farm wouldn’t be able to replace it. There would’ve been a steady decline for 4-5 years since the payroll is limited.

You don’t get surefire future stars in trades and they don’t stay in the minors long and there are only a handful of those in the first place. Fans think you trade an above average big leaguer and get a future start in return and that isn’t how baseball works anymore.

ATL has done a very nice job moving their big league pieces and getting mostly upper minors potential everyday guys with relatively few questions, along with a few lottery tickets at the lower levels.

12:26
Comment From Formerly the Smasher
Any chance we see Schwarber in Chicago this year?

12:26
Kiley McDaniel: Maybe Sept, but I’m betting they leave him in AA for most if not all of the year to figure out his ability to catch. I’ll be going to investigate that soon as well.

12:27
Comment From Pale Hose
Any plans on seeing games in the Northeast?

12:27
Kiley McDaniel: Thought about coming up to see Nikorak but he’s cooled off. May make an MILB trip to knock out a few guys, but I’ll wait a little to see if that happens.

12:27
Comment From Jack Elliott
Will Mike Zunino’s bat ever come around? Is so, when?

12:28
Kiley McDaniel: Always like it, but thought it was a 55 that may degrade a bit due to the rigors of catching. So, I could definitely see .260/.320 w/15-20 homers or so. Is that coming around?

12:29
Comment From Jake
Biggest

12:29
Comment From Mike
I would

12:29
Comment From Jake
Who

12:29
Kiley McDaniel: Are these bots or just weird people?

12:30
Comment From Awake in Seattle
Are you a fan of Carson Smith?

12:31
Kiley McDaniel: In keeping with the spirit of the podcast, I can’t be a fan of anything named Carson.

I ranked him 14th on the Mariners list, so you can read the report and tell me if you think that makes me a fan: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

12:31
Comment From Brian
Chattanooga is a great city too. It’s where I grew up.

12:32
Kiley McDaniel: Cool little downtown but not enough shade in the park during BP and aluminum seat backs almost caused me to catch on fire when I was last there to see Zach Lee, Christian Bethancourt and Evan Gattis in 2012.

12:32
Comment From Abe Froman
Is Kyle Tucker a good fit for the Cubs at 9? I love the swing. Its just so pretty.

12:34
Kiley McDaniel: There aren’t really “fits” in the MLB Draft like in football. You take the best player available, especially high in the first round, and hope you end up with the “problem” of too many good players at the same position.

The Cubs like bats and upside and Tucker is that type, so he’s definitely the type of guy they would take and that’s the right range for him. Should hear more team/player connections later in the process.

12:34
Comment From teddy
Yo kiley, if a team picking in the top half goes under slot in the first round, what are some arms they could be looking to snag over slot later in the top 10 rounds? Thanks

12:35
Kiley McDaniel: The problem is that you can’t really know the players that will be targeted like that until much closer to the draft…or really until the top 40-50 picks happen and you see who is left. Some teams will tell guys that they will give them X dollars if they’re at a certain pick and can manipulate the process to make a signable guy less signable.

12:35
Comment From Country Lovin
Did you ever see Nick Franklin when he was still in the minors? If so what did you think about him as a player. I’m not sure if he is nothing more than a utility guy. thanks

12:37
Kiley McDaniel: Yep saw him in AAA in 2012, here’s the video

https://www.youtube.com/wat…

There’s at least 50 raw power and 2B/SS defensive ability with some feel to hit. He’s one of those guys that hit everywhere then struggled in MLB, but it could all click at some point. Everyday tools but hasn’t quite put it all together yet.

12:37
Comment From John
Hah, I went to that series on Friday which was the only crappy game Bryant played. Rendezvous has good food but there’s better to be found imo.

12:37
Kiley McDaniel: Crowdsource food recs for my potential Memphis trip. Go!

12:37
Comment From Franklin
I’m not one to panic, but the Red Sox rotation is every bit as bad as I envisioned. They have Owens and Rodriguez in AAA. Eduardo Rodriguez has been lights out, whereas Owens has struggled just a bit. Which SP do you think makes an appearance in the Red Sox rotation first?

12:38
Kiley McDaniel: I would guess Owens, but you’re also forgetting recent podcast guest Brian Johnson! He likes some of the same TV shows I do, so you have to give him some love.

12:38
Comment From Brian
Any thoughts on Orlando Arcia? He’s been killing it in AA. What are the chances he gets the call this year?

12:39
Kiley McDaniel: Top 100 guy, he’s young, has tools, performed and can stick at SS. Teams always seem to rush SS prospects due to the defensive value, but I think it would be a mistake to give him the call before September. Also Jean Segura is figuring it out so it wouldn’t make much sense in that aspect either.

12:39
Comment From Russell
Can you and Carson have a daily podcast? I’ve never listened to more entertaining discussions…

12:40
Kiley McDaniel: We’ve found the one person that wants more me+Carson. Call off the search!

12:40
Comment From Jon
Do you think that the A’s are going to keep running Barreto out there at such an aggressive level until something clicks, or might they send him down?

12:41
Kiley McDaniel: It’s been 66 PA! Slow down with the judgment. The last guys OAK did this with was Addison Russell, so I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt here.

12:41
Comment From fwd
Eduardo Rodriguez has a 16:1 K:BB ratio across 18 IP. Does this confirm the late season version of him is for real? And, is he ready?

12:42
Kiley McDaniel: It’s 18 innings! Calm down, people!

12:43
Comment From @outfieldgrass24
Hi Kiley, hope you’re having an okay Tuesday. You mentioned that Brandon Drury didn’t quite look right to you in a couple looks at Mobile. Can you elaborate? He’s off to a tough start…

12:44
Kiley McDaniel: It’s more than okay so far. I’m getting BBQ for lunch! Yeah looked a little sluggish and was chasing/pressing a bit at the plate. Looked better in the third game, so may just be a mental slump where I caught a couple bad looks.

12:44
Comment From Jared
Any chance Tyler Stephenson sneaks into the first round?

12:45
Kiley McDaniel: I ranked him in the end of the 1st round so I hope so

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

12:45
Comment From Brandon Ross
Who do you think will most likely take over at SS for the Yankees when ready? Tyler Wade? Jorge Mateo?

12:47
Kiley McDaniel: They’re both in A-Ball! The Yankees don’t roll out the red carpet and wait for prospects to take over big league spots years in advance. You can’t do that with many prospects and they have the money to where just an okay guy isn’t enough. Those guys can force the issue but it’ll be another year or two before the front office is thinking along these lines.

12:47
Comment From D
What can an NL team like the Cubs do with a guy like Dan Vogelbach, who is reportedly only suited for DH work? And I suppose even if he were suitable at first base, he would be blocked by Rizzo. Is he just destined for a trade?

12:48
Kiley McDaniel: Probably, but with this type of situation, unless someone bowls you over, you let it play out. Maybe Vogelbach doesn’t work at higher levels, maybe Rizzo gets hurt and Vogelbach is raking so much you’ll put up with the defense.

12:48
Comment From Danny
Is the Astros’ future outfield Teoscar, Phillips, and Fisher?

12:48
Kiley McDaniel: Odds are no. I’ll have to make a name for the phenomenon of once a fan makes a dream lineup for 3-5 years in the future, that automatically ensures that it will never happen.

12:49
Comment From Neil
The comments Heyman got from a scout on Correa being “what ARod should’ve been” are obviously confusing on many levels, but can Correa make that kind of impact with his power?

12:50
Kiley McDaniel: When Correa kisses himself in a mirror for a fashion magazine, Heyman is gonna feel silly.

Correa could be 30 HR guy, but not peak A-Rod level juice in the bat.

12:50
Comment From Curtis
You’ve worked for teams. Is there any Non-Classified info you can share regarding Minor League player tracking by the big club? I always envision some giant room with all of the org’s players names on a board and potential trades/targeted players identified, etc. Does anything like that exist?

12:51
Kiley McDaniel: Each team has at least 3-4 boards in various offices with every name on a magnet of players in the org. I made many of them. Made Buck Showalter the board in his office. Long process, but fun to play with.

12:51
Comment From Earl
Daniel Reyes was talked about a lot a year ago but seems like his stock has dropped. Is he a guy that ends up in college?

12:53
Kiley McDaniel: Not sure about signability, but wouldn’t surprise me if someone take a shot on him in the 3rd round if he’ll sign there. 55-60 raw power, loose hands, pretty swing and history of hitting in games, until things went south last summer. Reyes was the freshman LF next to senior CF Albert Almora and junior RF Willie Abreu (potential 2016 1st rounder from U Miami) at Mater Academy HS.

12:53
Comment From Taylor
Does Duane Underwood have top of the rotation upside? How far is he away from that after his start to 2015?

12:54
Kiley McDaniel: #2 if it all comes together. Shows flashes of three plus pitches and command.

12:54
Comment From Formerly the Smasher
You set twitter in Canada abuzz with your quote on Hoffman to me last chat.

12:55
Kiley McDaniel: I guess I don’t follow Canadian baseball twitter that closely.

12:55
Kiley McDaniel: I should mention that I’ve been asked to elaborate on chat answers by front office people and scouting directors, crosscheckers at games. What this means is that important people will read your stupid question if you can convince me to publish it!

12:57
Kiley McDaniel: For the record, I’m not answering your “when will X get called up” and “does a good 3 weeks change the ranking of X” because there isn’t new information to share. And good Lord are there a lot of those questions.

12:57
Comment From Brandon Ross
Do you think Aiken can fall to the Yankees at 17? If he does, you think they’d take him?

12:59
Kiley McDaniel: Still getting Aiken questions, too. I explained that one in as much depth as I can here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Literally no more than 5 people know what’s going on with Aiken’s arm, so no one knows where he’ll go or if a team will draft him. That will change in about a month or two when all 30 teams get his medicals. He’s either fine and goes 7-10 or so or is the medical mess some people think and could go literally anywhere.

12:59
Comment From Colby
Hunter Renfroe’s K’s beginning to get concerning or just an adjustment to AA?

1:01
Kiley McDaniel: Stats this early mean nothing unless scouts see something different that suggest this will keep happening. That said, one scout comp’d Renfroe to Jeff Francoeur this winter, which I can’t get out of my mind.

1:01
Comment From Ben from NYC
I know it might be too soon but any sense who the Yankees are looking at for their 2 1st round picks?

1:02
Kiley McDaniel: It is way too early, especially in this draft, but a friend of mine is convinced the Yankees will draft LSU CF Andrew Stevenson. Just wanted to get that on the record in case he ends up being right. 2nd-3rd round type.

1:02
Comment From Ben
The Red Sox seem to have a AAA team that is notably deep in guys who seem likely to have decent big league careers. You’ve got their starting lineup with a 60 FV, a 55, a 50, 2 45s, 2 40s, and Jackie Bradley, Jr. Their rotation has 2 60s, a 50, a 45, and Steven Wright. How unusual is something like that, especially given their proximity to the majors? Are there usually a couple of AAA teams like that? One a year? One every couple of years?

1:02
Kiley McDaniel: Super weird. Haven’t done the research but can’t have happened more than once or twice.

1:03
Comment From Brian
Orlando Arcia slashing .423/.492/.596 so far, think he keeps it up or is this a fluke?

1:04
Kiley McDaniel: The wording got me to answer this one. If he kept that up, he would be the best player in the history of baseball. So, I’ll say no, he won’t keep this up.

1:04
Comment From Curtis
What was the biggest scout gallery you’ve ever witnessed? For which player(s) were they there? Was it near trade deadline or early in season?

1:05
Kiley McDaniel: Never heard it called a gallery before. Biggest groups are for amateur guys early in the season. I’ve seen 50-75 at a couple HS/college games. If you want to talk showcases, I’ve seen hundreds at HS or July 2 showcases or about 100 at some HS tourneys. May be close to 500 at Jupiter every October.

1:05
Comment From Ivan
What have you heard about Tyler Kolek’s velocity this spring? Is it still up 90s?

1:06
Kiley McDaniel: Heard 92-96, touched 97 or 98, so about what you’d expect.

1:06
Comment From Or
Hey, Kiley! Any thoughts on Nick Williams

1:06
Kiley McDaniel: Lots of em: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

1:07
Comment From Colby
Kopech impressing you with his start or are batters going to eventually figure out the funky delivery?

1:07
Kiley McDaniel: It’s not just funky delivery, altho it’s less funky now than HS. He’s hit 98 and flashed a plus breaking ball. I think that’s what’s causing the problems for hitters.

1:07
Comment From Forsyth
You in Nashville for Vandy game? Doing a meet and greet, by chance?

1:08
Kiley McDaniel: Nah, Donny Everett last night, Bryce Denton tonight then heading home. Already seen Vandy a few games this year and see them every year, so don’t need another look. Might sneak up for one more look at Carson Fulmer if the schedule lines up.

1:08
Comment From Pale Hose
What are the merits of scouts bringing their own radar gun vs. using stadium readings?

1:09
Kiley McDaniel: Maybe 10-20% of stadium guns are useable enough that scouts will even look at them. I’ve seen stadiums in the last few weeks be 4-5 ticks low and 4-5 ticks high the entire games. I went to a HS in Atlanta (McEachern) that has gun readings on the scoreboard that were pretty good, which was a first.

1:10
Comment From Chris
Aside from his BB% – Aaron Judge appears to have quickly adapted to AA ball. Does his performance thus far move the needle above 55 FV?

1:10
Kiley McDaniel: Very hard for a corner outfielder to get over 55 FV in the minors. Like maybe a couple each year and that’s it.

1:10
Comment From Jake
What are your thoughts on Alex Reyes’ hot start? Just seems to need to develop control at this point. Does he jump up your list?

1:11
Kiley McDaniel: Tweeted about this a few weeks back when I confirmed 100 and 101 mph. He’s a 60 FV now, which is roughly top 30.

1:11
Comment From Doug
re: your comment ot Alan about the Braves – please relay to Ruben Amaro.

1:12
Comment From Smithie
“Heard 92-96, touched 97 or 98, so about what you’d expect.” Is this in response to Kopech?

1:12
Kiley McDaniel: Kolek

1:13
Comment From Barney Stinson
Have you seen BA’s Top 20 Cuban players list? Thoughts?

1:13
Kiley McDaniel: Don’t have a subscription, so no

1:14
Comment From Billy
What collegiate catchers do you like for the upcoming draft?

1:14
Kiley McDaniel: Tyler Ward at Fresno is the only one I have in the top 4 rounds

1:15
Comment From Matt
Hey Kiley, do you have any plans to do a farm system ranking? I’ve seen you allude to it before…apologies if I’ve missed it. Thanks!

1:15
Kiley McDaniel: Should have some form of it soon, but since season already started, I’m leaning towards doing a real-time updated one. Hope you guys like that more than just doing one before each season.

1:15
Comment From Winslow
Is the Astros’ future outfield Dan Vogelbach, Dan Vogelbach, and Dan Vogelbach?

1:16
Kiley McDaniel: I WOULD PAY TO WATCH THIS

1:16
Comment From Rufus Wainwrights Torn Achilles
Memphis food recs–Gus’s Fried Chicken is a must. Original location is walkable from AutoZone park. I’d walk up from the ballpark to the river, walk along the park there and enjoy the Mississippi. Get some fried chicken from Gus’s. Then you can walk over to the Civil Rights Museum and swing by The Arcade for the atmosphere if not the food. Tsunami is best restaurant in the city. Iris is very cool and in midtown. Generally if you get out of downtown and up towards midtown (5-10 minute drive from Autozone Park) you’ll find a lot of great places to eat. The Second Line by Kelly English is decent. Good sliders, upscale take on bar food. Cool atmosphere. Good drinks. Best BBQ places–Central BBQ (get the nachos) and BBQ Shoppe. Make sure you get the Memphis style pulled pork.

1:16
Kiley McDaniel: Just wanted to make sure I can find this later

1:17
Comment From Sean
can u plz give a nfl draft rankings thx

1:17
Kiley McDaniel: Actually have an NFL Draft related article I was thinking about writing. And it’s not the article you think it is.

1:17
Comment From Guest
Do you know of any front office types that actually do play fantasy baseball? There has to be an AGM or analyst somewhere that has been in a home league with his friends for a long time and just plays on the side for fun, right?

1:18
Kiley McDaniel: I know of a handful and I bet there’s more.

1:19
Kiley McDaniel: Alright time to go eat BBQ and see Bryce Denton





Kiley McDaniel has worked as an executive and scout, most recently for the Atlanta Braves, also for the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates. He's written for ESPN, Fox Sports and Baseball Prospectus. Follow him on twitter.

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Roger Munter
8 years ago

You mentioned Johneshwy Fargas as a guy to watch in your Giants list and he’s gotten off to a nice start to the year. With his speed/defense and great arm, what kind of hitter does he need to develop into to be a useful big leaguer? Does the body type offer any hope for more than just some “hit the alley and run” power?

Well-Beered Englishman
8 years ago
Reply to  Roger Munter

Confirmed: “Johneshwy Fargas” is a real, correctly-spelled name.

I think we can retire the Cool Name Power Rankings now.