Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 4/7/15

Kiley McDaniel: Sorry for the delay, I was doing important and exciting things I can’t tell you about

Comment From Pale Hose
Good afternoon, sir.

Kiley McDaniel: And to you!

Comment From Dave
So now that you’ve written approximately 55 million words on prospects, what’s left to ask you?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve had a lot of suggestions, most of them include getting really drunk and/or wandering through some sort of wilderness

Comment From JRod
Hey Kiley, got a Matt Wisler comp?

Kiley McDaniel: Not really. Usually comps are for something like the stuff is pretty close or exact and the body is pretty close or exact and then people just take the guy I mention and say I think x player is y player and if y player had an injury-shortened career then I think player x sucks. I don’t have a comp and that’s why I won’t try to force one, because the internet is the worst.

Comment From Vslyke
Do you see a notable difference in the Braves philosophy about their farm system since Hart took over? Seems like its a much higher priority than when Wren was in charge.

Kiley McDaniel: It is. It seems like they decided they’re going to make another dynasty, so they got the band back together and are planning another heist like its one of those Ocean’s movie (hopefully not the second one). They’re targeting close to the majors bats and high upside arms and doubling down on the draft and July 2 and it’s all very exciting. I find unusual things exciting.

Comment From John
Tell us who is legit after day 1

Kiley McDaniel: Everyone except for you favorite team!

Comment From dude
Howdy. What are your thoughts on Cardinals’ prospect Magneuris Sierra?

Kiley McDaniel: Like him a lot, one scout said upside like Carlos Gonzalez. Could be a top 100 prospect by mid-season in the midwest league: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Dan
Greenville will have Chavis and Devers sharing 3B/DH. Who do you like more?

Kiley McDaniel: Gimme Devers. BTW, I just checked out the projected Greenville roster and holy cow is that team loaded. Wouldn’t be surprised if Moncada stayed back a few weeks in extended, but when he shows up that’s a destination spot. I will definitely check them out soon.

Comment From Mike
How much does Osuna’s chances of being a starter get dinged by starting the year in the bullpen?

Kiley McDaniel: Nothing by starting there. If anything it might go up if he proves his stuff/command works against big league hitters, then goes back down to be a starter, like Brandon Finnegan. If he’s up for a full-season, that’ll likely hurt him a bit.

Comment From Joe
What prospect are you looking forward to seeing the most?

Kiley McDaniel: Moncada, since he’s one of the few very elite guys that I haven’t seen at all and haven’t even seen good video, either.

Comment From Aaron
Congrats on breaking the Padres/Braves trade. Would you mind quickly running us through how it happened?

Kiley McDaniel: When two teams love each other very much, they make a trade…

Comment From Chris
How much time in the minors does Rodon need to be completely polished and ready for the majors?

Kiley McDaniel: Very little because he’s ready now, but he has things to work on to reach his upside, so you can justify sending him down to see if he can do those things.

Comment From mesut ozil
of all the prospect writers that I read, I must say… you’re one of them.

Comment From Pete
thoughts on the horrible porcello contract??

Kiley McDaniel: Other than it’s not horrible?

Comment From Shortstops!
Who do you like more as an offensive shortstop, Difo, Arcia, or Baldino?

Comment From Pale Hose
PSA: Kiley has already written about the prospect you are going to ask about. Check the player page.

Kiley McDaniel: He’s right, but the last 10 lists or so aren’t on teh player pages (but will be soon).

So, for top prospect comparisons, see the top 200: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

And for team-specific and lower down prospect, see the team lists, linked to here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

I’ll still answer questions with updated stuff that isn’t in the reports, but most of what you’re looking for is probably there

Comment From yolo
Have you seen Mark Canha hit at all? A’s seemed to be REALLY stoked when they got him, and he did pretty well in spring.

Kiley McDaniel: He’s a classic hit over power platoon 1B/LF type. Good bench bat, maybe 15 homers if he has a good year. Solid Rule 5 type guy.

Comment From JC
What’s the floor for Ozhaino Albies in your opinion?

Kiley McDaniel: Well every kid in A-Ball’s floor is not making the big leagues. I think the answer you’re asking for is utility guy, assuming he doesn’t hit enough and he’s far enough away that’s still a good possibility.

Comment From Jimi
Do you get the feeling the Braves are higher on Paroubeck than the industry or was his inclusion in the trade merely a lotto ticket at this point?

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe higher than the Padres, because the Preller regime didn’t draft him, but yeah he’s a lottery ticket to most teams

Comment From mesut ozil
heard the White Sox linked with anyone on J2?

Kiley McDaniel: yep. coming soon.

Comment From EC
Giolito to low-A. Make any sense?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think that will last long, figured he’d open at High-A.

Comment From joe
when will addison russell come up? Will it take a Starlin trade or will he move to third or second?

Kiley McDaniel: When he’s ready and needed. I think Castro might be a better defender than Russell, so you might have it backwards.

Comment From Mitchell
what are the braves gonna do with all this pitching and so few bats? trade pitching for bats or sign free agents?

Kiley McDaniel: Both of these questions get the same answer. Sometimes, these sorts of things look like problems, but very very few times do they actually end up problems. Young players are volatile assets and they do weird things and rarely will a team have too many good players to deal with. And if it’s one of the rare situations where they do, then they’ll make a trade, but not until they have to.

Comment From Jimi
Any chance your Fangraphs business cards reads “Kiley McDaniel — Pb Prospect Analyst

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t have any, but that’s a pretty inside joke to confuse everyone that sees my business cards

Comment From Abe Froman
Given the weak draft class, how much do you think Aiken’s TJS hurts him? Chance he falls to the Cubs at 9?

Kiley McDaniel: I think he’ll drop even further than that, if I had to guess.

Comment From xavier
Do you think Hunter Dozier will figure out advanced pitching? His first AA stint didn’t go too well.

Kiley McDaniel: Small sample

Comment From TINSTAAPP
Who will AJ Preller trade Renfroe and Hedges for?

Kiley McDaniel: Hopefully for some sleep

Kiley McDaniel: along with Stanton, Trout and Kershaw

Comment From Mike C
Thanks for the chats (and the awesome write-ups), Kiley. Any FV 45+ that you mentioned in your Top 200 ascending into FV 50 territory?

Kiley McDaniel: Already mentioned Miguel Castro in the Jays writeup. Magneuris Sierra is among those right on the edge with a good first month or two in the minors. Gilbert Lara is another, but he won’t play until the summer.

Comment From Zach b
Thoughts on Tanaka?

Kiley McDaniel: When velo backs up, some throwers learn to be pitchers, then are much better off when the velo comes back. I think Tanaka was already a pitcher and I don’t know if it comes back….so I can’t tell you what to expect or what I think

Comment From Matt
What do you think of Miguel Castro and the long term? Watched him pitch against the Yanks yesterday, and he had high heat with movement. Will he be a rotation spot holder anytime int he future?

Kiley McDaniel: Not really room for him. Like Osuna, it could serve him well to run through the league once and succeed and give the big team a boost, but a full season of this will harm him long-term.

Comment From Evan T
I live in the Northern Atlanta Suburbs (between Roswell/Alpharetta) and looking for some interesting high school baseball to go watch..any teams/prospects worth going to check out?

Kiley McDaniel: Very close to you, Dakota Chalmers is at North Forsyth HS and might go in the first round. He’s the one to see. Generally throws on Wed or Fri.

Comment From Johnny Homerun
Kiley…heading to any of the affiliates around DC? If so, I’ll buy you a beer.

Kiley McDaniel: Actually might head up there to catch carolina/eastern league action, but haven’t decided when/if yet

Comment From John
thanks to your list, i feel like i have really bolstered my nl only dynasty league minor leaguers

Kiley McDaniel: it feels so dirty when this was all just so you could impress your friends and make money

Comment From Kiley McFailure
Are any of the Nationals SP prospects going to be ready to spend a full year in the rotation next year? I’m assuming Zim/Fister are gone with Roark replacing one.

Kiley McDaniel: AJ Cole will be. Giolito maybe if he’s great this year. Fedde and Lopez are farther back.

Comment From TommyLasordid
Projection for when Tomas joins the DBacks and where he plays?

Kiley McDaniel: I won’t act like I have any idea what ARZ is up to. Tomas was brutal this spring in every phase of the game and they need him to get right. No way to know when that will be.

Comment From Dan
Some at ESPN are suggesting that the Cubs trade Starlin Castro to allow for Russell to take over SS. Thoughts?

Kiley McDaniel: And what if it turns out Russell isn’t a SS? Pretty foolish right? That’s why they haven’t done that yet.

Comment From Dave
By this point you probably have teams you believe are better at developing talent, does this information effect your evaluation and/or ranking of prospects?

Kiley McDaniel: On a guy where I have limited information like post-draft or rookie ball guys I might give the benefit of the doubt, but that’s more because I know there are teams that will tell me their internal reports verbatim and ones that will juice it a bit. A whole system’s strengths doesn’t really affect one particular player.

Comment From John
Not surprising to see Tomas get sent down, but they still want him to play third? And Lamb seems like a nice player and all, but given tomas inability to handle the hot corner, do they speed Drury? Afterall, nobody saw ahmed making the team this early

Kiley McDaniel: I got the impression that with Lamb and Drury there and Tomas being awful defensively that this experiment was all but over. I’d like to think it will be. Again, who knows what the snakes are doing.

Comment From mike
Hearing that Daz Cameron is coming on strong. Is he finally showing the growth expected of him?

Kiley McDaniel: Talked a lot about him and the challenges of evaluating a guy like him and him specifically on the last podcast: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Short version is teams have mostly already made up their mind on him since the summer is much more predictive than the spring, particularly against weak pitching.

Comment From Smasher
Devon Travis can hit .280/.330/.400 with 15 steals. True or false?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s around his upside, but probably not this year and probably a little lower on the power

Comment From Smasher
Rowdy Tellez have enough hit tool to one day let his power translate in MLB?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s the question. Too early to know

Comment From Vampire Weekend at Bernies
Is it worth exploring using Lindgren as a starter?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope. He doesn’t like it and his stuff is much worse.

Comment From Smasher
Who you got? A healthy Hoffman or Aiken?

Kiley McDaniel: Healthy, Peak Hoffman is the best amateur pitcher I’ve ever seen. Better than Peak Rodon, too.

Comment From Danny
What are the chances that Matuella or Aiken fall to the Yankees at 16? Do you think the Yankees pull the trigger after what happened with Brackman and Hensley?

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe 30-40% one of them gets there. Those two guys have nothing to do with who they draft this year.

Comment From Sally Native
Who is your breakout pitcher in the South Atlantic League?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll have a better answer after the season

Comment From Mitchell
when do we get to read about July 2 things?

Kiley McDaniel: Soon!

Comment From Minty
What’s the best way to differentiate from your expert analysis who is a better real life and who is a better fantasy prospect? I’m trying to figure out which SS is worth stashing.

Kiley McDaniel: Take my rankings/tools and round up/down for the stuff that impacts categories. Two relatively similar SSs separated by 50-60 spots on a top 100, I’d just take the higher one. Use your judgement for guys closer than that.

Comment From John
surprised bradley made the ODR? i thought the consensus was that he isnt quite ready. expectations now that hes arrived early?

Kiley McDaniel: Was good this spring, so maybe he’s ready now? We’re about to find out.

Comment From Matt
What are so big names that will most likely play on the Cape this summer?

Kiley McDaniel: They team sites have the current rosters up and I’ll have 2016 and 2017 draft lists coming soon as well.

Comment From some guy
watched E60 for 60 about Matt Harvey last night and as he was saying his signing bonus # was $2m, no less (then went to UNC for 3 years to get $2.5m) I was reading that Rick Porcello (3 mo older than Harvey) will have earned $120m before age 30 due to young age at MLB debut. Did Harvey miss the forest for the trees? Did Aiken?

Kiley McDaniel: Some guys want to go to college and some families are much more into that than others. Can’t treat it like a math problem.

Kiley McDaniel: Well, you can, but don’t act like that’ll change the math for them.

Comment From Tony Womack
ETA for Buxton and/or Sano to reach AAA? I need a reason to go to Red Wings games this year.

Kiley McDaniel: Midseason? I’m going to see them early in AA since I’m a little worried they might get the quick hook.

Comment From Danny
What do the Yankees do with all their potential 1B prospects? Jagielo, Bird, Sanchez and to a lesser extent, Bichette?

Kiley McDaniel: Bichette is 3B/RF and Jagielo still might be a 3B. This isn’t a problem yet.

Comment From TINSTAAPP
“Bob Nightengale ?@BNightengale 50s51 seconds ago

The #Padres and aggressive A.J Preller still aren’t done dealing. They are now scouring the shortstop market, teams say.” Care to comment?

Kiley McDaniel: If I say something really cryptic, will people read that to mean that I know something?

Comment From Smasher
I drafted Olivera in a keeper league, how long until I see him in U.S.?

Kiley McDaniel: Hope for May, expect June

Comment From Smasher
What do you think Olivera can put up number wise if he is healthy?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah, never ben a question on the talent, just on literally everything else

Comment From Mike
If you knew those last two weeks of Eduardo Rodriguez’s beast mode were 100% *legit*, is he a slame dunk top-20 option? Front of the rotation upside? Also, how has he looked this ST outside of a bunch of K’s?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah I guess he probably would be, but it’s hard to ignore the 5 years before that when he was just okay.

Comment From M
When is your next mock draft being released?

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t do them more than 4, maybe 5 weeks out from the draft because it’s just stupid at that point. you’d be just as accurate taking my list and the draft order and randomly placing them together.

Comment From NY Johnny
What kind of years and AAV do you see Heyward getting, being a 26 year old FA?

Kiley McDaniel: If he has a big year, Dave Cameron laid out a compelling case for $200M

Comment From brad
eventually you’re just going to have write about prospects that don’t actually exist yet

Kiley McDaniel: Sidd Finch is putting up big numbers in the California Penal League

Comment From Kingpin
What are the draft prospects for pitchers Tyler Peyton and Blake Hickman from the University of Iowa? Hawkeye fans aren’t used to have a ranked team & potential big-league talent!

Kiley McDaniel: Hickman is the better one, really good body and plus FB, decent CH, but some issues with command and breaking ball that may push him to the bullpen, 3rd-5th round type.

Comment From Newyorker
Which is the most stacked milb team?

Kiley McDaniel: May write about this when all the rosters are official?

Comment From what are your thoughts regarding Matt Moore coming back from TJ?
Although not a prospect, what are your thoughts on Matt Moore coming back from TJ? Sorry if I sent this twice, damn phone

Kiley McDaniel: His prospect days were a little before my writing days, but he was the #3 prospect behind Trout and Harper right before they took off. The upside is huge, but there’s obviously some risk. We’ll have to wait and see if it all comes back, but there were some issues before TJ he needed to work out, so I’m guarded.

Kiley McDaniel: Just tweeted about Moncada spending a few weeks in extended spring before heading to Low-A on a stupid loaded Greenville team.

Comment From Sean
Would you consider writing something about MiLB players’ lives on the road/minors? I think it’s a perspective a lot of people don’t see that could be really insightful to see what they have to do to make the MLB.

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe not this exactly, but in the next few days, we’ll be releasing podcast interviews with three players that were high on the top 200 list.

Kiley McDaniel: So, eventually this series will veer more into that area.

Comment From Sam
Much as I love Cistulli’s writing, I want your opinion on Jharel Cotton

Kiley McDaniel: I also wrote about him, because Cistulli couldn’t find a guy that I didn’t also like. Here’s what I wrote:

5’11/195 righty is an enigma that sits in the mid-90’s at times and sits 90-91 other times; he’s a starter now that fits in relief long-term and flashes a solid average curveball

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From will
do we have an idea of what to expect from Shohei Ohtani?

Kiley McDaniel: he’ll be really really good, but not in MLB for a couple more years

Comment From Tony Womack
Does Javier Baez have a major league job in Chicago or does he need a trade?

Kiley McDaniel: Man, people really pile on these kids fast. If he had never come up, you guys would be praising him like he was going to cure cancer and calling the Cubs greedy idiots.

Comment From Mark
Do you like Kolby Allard with the Rangers 4th pick? Or does the back injury make him fall a bit later?

Kiley McDaniel: A little high for me since we haven’t seen him throw recently, but when he was healthy, that fit about right.

Comment From TINSTAAPP
I’ve seen conflicting reports on the Red Sox handling of Cody Kukuk, was he released or put on the restricted list? What are his chances of ever making the majors with his off-field issues?

Kiley McDaniel: Restriced list, place on there in December

Comment From Matthew
What organization has the best scouting department?

Kiley McDaniel: 1. I have no idea and 2. i know which ones would get mad at me if I said I did

Comment From NY Johnny
What happens if Javier Baez never sorts out his contact issues?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s the guy that carries a bat with him everywhere, muttering something to himself and you hope you don’t run into him in an alley

Comment From El Gallo
How is the updated draft list coming together?

Kiley McDaniel: Uphill work, but it’s getting there

Comment From Andy
Pretty sure you don’t do dynasty stuff, but I’ll take a shot in the dark. Just traded Lewis Thorpe for Jake Marisnick. Smart move or did I just give up upside for a bench bat?

Kiley McDaniel: I can’t imagine a league where both of those guys have value right now

Comment From Mitchell
do you know if hunter renfroe was available to atlanta and they preferred wisler? I know they were both pretty much 1A and 1B for you

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah I ended up ranking Renfroe higher on the Padres list, then gave Wisler the nod on the top 200 after talking to more people. I think Atlanta preferred Wisler, not sure if Renfroe was avail or not, but you can see their preference for arms in their deals, so I don’t think it mattered.

Comment From Ryan
Thanks for all the info on the Indians farm system. What do the Indians do to get guys who aren’t highly rated prospects(Kluber, Brantley, Kipnis, etc) to all star level performance? Is it just luck?

Kiley McDaniel: If it isn’t luck, every team should be throwing money at the people that did that

Comment From Metsox
I just took Sean Newcomb in a super realistic dynasty type league over Conforto. Having read your write up and others I feel like his risk profile is pretty high to be so highly rated. The tools are obvious but I worry about him not having put it together yet. Do you see him as a starter longer term or will he end up as a high impact reliever?

Kiley McDaniel: Too early to tell, but the upside is an athletic 6’5 lefty with a low effort delivery and three plus pitches, so thats why he’s so high. People yelled at me to make him higher than ~50 in the whole game. Almost went in the top 5-7 picks in the draft.

Comment From Tim
Why won’t Lara play until the summer? (Excuse my cluelessness)

Kiley McDaniel: Short-season leagues start after the draft (like mid June) and he’s 17, so he’ll play on one of those (or so I’m told).

Comment From Matthew
What does a Kris Bryant and Cubs – Longoria-esq contract look like?

Kiley McDaniel: It looks impossible if Scott Boras is involved, which he is.

Comment From Doug
Is Boston’s AAA team better than the Phillies right now?

Kiley McDaniel: Seems mean spirited to actually answer this, but I’m thinking about it

Comment From Sadface
Time to worry about Dylan Bundy? Doesn’t seem like the velo is coming back.

Kiley McDaniel: Not quite yet, but his stock is slipping each day the velo isn’t there

Comment From Tony Womack
Re: Baez, I meant only that with Castro and Alcantera in the majors and Russell the darling prospect, it seems that he’s pretty heavily blocked when he could play somewhere else right now.

Kiley McDaniel: If he hits, he has a spot

Comment From David
Sounds like Wisler could be up by the all star break now, right? Do you see immediate success? His arsenal seems pretty major league ready.

Kiley McDaniel: The only question is durability if it turns out his command is fine when out of the PCL, which we’ll know by midseason. Need to break him in at the MLB level and find out.

Comment From Carson Cistullis Menswear Emporium
Brandon Lowe and Mike Shawaryn are _________ prospects.

Kiley McDaniel: baseball

Comment From Redbeard
Are there any current prospects or players in the Pirates org that I should be thanking you for?

Kiley McDaniel: There were some near misses that you would be def thanking me for. Don’t think I was instrumental getting anyone currently in the system.

Comment From Long John Silver
Who ends up being the long term CF for the Braves?\

Kiley McDaniel: Mallex Smith, Cameron Maybin or Jose Peraza. lots of factors in play to say which one with any certainty.

Comment From Vampire Weekend at Bernies
The Braves basically sold Kimbrel for $54M and got a couple prospects plus a draft pick in return. Keeping that in mind, how much would a prospect like Kris Bryant be worth in cash without getting prospects/picks in return?

Kiley McDaniel: over $50M, probably under $100M.

Comment From Stanatee the Manatee
Sorry if this has already been asked or covered on Twitter, but thoughts on Gary Brown, since he fell between the Cardinals and Giants lists?

Kiley McDaniel: last guy on a list type guy. 4th OF speed type defense/baserunning/contact type

Comment From Truman
Hey Kiley, any pro prospects on Mizzou’s team this year?

Kiley McDaniel: Freshman righties Tanner Houck and Bryce Montes de Oca are the best ones

Comment From Proswagonist
Rodgers is the consensus best talent in the draft, but what are the odds the DBacks take someone else?

Kiley McDaniel: Higher with them than any other team, since we have no idea who TLR and Stewart handle this sort of situation

Comment From Guest
We are told to avoid scouting the stat line, but can’t you kinda scout some tools for the stat line? I browsed the minor league stats for players that were young for their level and hitting a lot of HR,stealing a lot of bases, or striking out a lot of guys and before you lists went up and I was pretty happy to see a lot of them on your lists.

Kiley McDaniel: It’s instructive for many players, could tell the whole story for some guys, but could be misinformative for any one player

Comment From David
Are people overvaluing Brent Honeywell based on his screwball? From what I’d heard/seen, he rarely throws it, and the changeup is more his weapon.

Kiley McDaniel: People like his bonkers personality more than his screwball. Also, he’s legitimately good, so they aren’t overrating him.

Comment From Mitchell
braves dump upton so they can sign heyward? would make for television

Kiley McDaniel: CONSPIRACY THEORY ALERT

Comment From Zak
Saw you’re down on Kirby at UVA… thoughts on his teammate Brandon Waddell? When do you expect him to be drafted this year?

Comment From Eddie
Just moved to DC … is the summer college league here worth catching?

Kiley McDaniel: fringy stuff lefty, more of a senior sign type guy that returns to school

Kiley McDaniel: Almost always no

Comment From Fauntleroy
I was surprised (slightly) to see you give Correa and higher (slightly) offensive upside that Seager. It strikes me that Correa is more the true shortstop with a bat, and Seager is more of the bat than can play SS. But am I correct, you also see Correa has having the bigger bat?

Kiley McDaniel: Eh, they’re very close, but Seager has risk about his contact than Correa does at this point and is a lesser SS defender as well.

Comment From Zak
Any indication as to when Rodon will be called up? Is it more about when the wheels fall off Danks/Noesi, more about his service time or more about genuinely needing to make the previously mentioned adjustments?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s overwhelmingly about service time for the first two weeks

Comment From Vampire Weekend at Bernies
Ridiculous question: which prospect would benefit most from being allowed to use an aluminum bat?

Kiley McDaniel: Telvin Nash! 80 raw power and either didn’t or almost didn’t even make the others of note for the Astros list (it’s all a blur to me at this point).

Kiley McDaniel: Alright that’s all for today, I’m off to make more lists you people can get outraged about. Happy Baseball!