Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 5/12/15

Kiley McDaniel: I’m here, sans beer, get used to it

Kiley McDaniel: Alrighty I’ll get the announcements out of the way about the existing content, in case your question is generall in terms of timeframe

General top prospects questions can usually be answered by the top 200 (though some things have changed for some of these guys already): http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Check the team prospect lists for questions on some deeper cuts, here’s the last list with links to the other 29: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

July 2 update in three parts: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

And, finally, the draft content has been coming fast and furious of late and the 2015 stuff will get updated in a few weeks as the info is still rolling in

Mock Draft: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…
2015 draft prospects: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…
2016/2017 draft prospects: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From joe
how has evaluating prospects changed over the last 10, 20, 30 years?

Kiley McDaniel: I can only guess since I started in the last 10 years. Lots more phone calls and relationships, along with way poorer scouting info/consensus and stats due to communication via technology and showcases/access to players

Comment From Bryan
Is Mallex Smith the future starting center fielder in Atlanta?

Kiley McDaniel: Could be. Has the tools to be a solid starting center fielder, but the bat is seen as just okay, so the speed needs to play in all phases.

Comment From Philip
Ryan Butler, anything there? Good start to year

Kiley McDaniel: One of the post-draft, low-bonus sleepers for the Padres. Chance to start but probably a reliever, has injury history and effort to reliever but has hit 100 mph. Follow links above for report.

Comment From Jared
Any sense of what the Dodgers will do in the draft? Safe to assume they’d take an injured player who falls to them?

Kiley McDaniel: Would not assume that. Haven’t written it yet, but I already know of two teams that said they will not take an injured player with their first pick. Things like GM/owner mandate and job security come into play at times, and if you pick in the top 15, the injured guys probably aren’t atop your board anyway. End of the round, it at least will be discussed.

Comment From j
Heard any more on who the Yankees could take at 16?

Kiley McDaniel: They have no idea who will be on the board at 16, same for the teams around 10, so they haven’t zeroed in on a guy yet. They had 3 scouts in to see TN prep RHP Donnie Everett the night I saw him, so run wild with that if you want (I haven’t).

Comment From Judge and Executioner
Kiley, you bumping up any prospects on The List based on early season performances?

Kiley McDaniel: Jeff Hoffman being healthy and Alex Reyes’ stuff ticking up are the two early examples that come to mind of top 100 guys moving up. Trevor Story has moved up, but still investigating that one. Richie Shaffer is on the list. Adam Miller with ARZ was 96-98 on back to back nights for me. Zach Jones with MIN has a cleaner delivery to go with 95-99 heater. Andrew Bellatti with TB has moved into list contention.

Comment From Mike
Can we have tool grades for current big leaguers (especially Harper and Harvey)? Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel: Be patient. You’ll get much more than that.

Comment From Philip
Any new luscious fox rumors

Kiley McDaniel: That names keeps getting better

Comment From Bren
Thanks for all the great work! Justin Hooper seems to be going down on most draft rankings. Any chance he could make it to the Mets at 53, and would they have any shot at signing him with a small draft pool?

Kiley McDaniel: He won’t be an easy sign, so if he slides that far, in order to sign he’ll probably go to a team with a big bonus pool. I’d think he’ll need top 30-40 money. I guess Mets could do that if they really wanted to.

Comment From Ryan
Safe to say Orlando Arcia would offer more contact but less power than Segura in the future?

Comment From Josh G
What kind of ceiling does Orlando Arcia have with the bat in the majors?

Kiley McDaniel: Anther guy that is probably moving up. In the Brewers list http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… I said his realistic upside (75% projection) is .275/.335/.435, 15 homers and that’s with above average baserunning and at least avg D at SS. Upside may still be the same, but probability is up.

Comment From Hi Erix
Hey Kiley! Any chance the astros go with an under slot guy (Garret Whitley?) with one of their top-5 picks and try to have it both ways?

Kiley McDaniel: The 2nd pick has a slot value of $7.42 million and no one in this draft is worth that, so they’re definitely going under there. the 5th pick is just under $4.2 million and I’d bet they go a little under that as well, in part because they seem to be targeting a number of guys. Haven’t heard Whitley with them at all, but check the mock link at the top for all the names I have heard with them.

Comment From King Kunta
Did you ever see Tyler Duffey in Chattanooga like you mentioned a couple weeks back? Anything different with him this year leading to the huge uptick in Ks? I assume Berrios looked generally impressive.

Kiley McDaniel: I saw Berrios in my one game last week (changed schedule) and will see Chattanooga again this week, maybe twice. Not sure which pitchers I’m getting yet, but I’ll get around to Duffey eventually. I tweeted about Berrios from the game that he was the most impressive P I’ve seen all year and GM Terry Ryan (who sat in front of me) also seemed pretty enthused from our conversation.

Comment From Chris
Have you guys at FG ever thought about creating a statistic that measures the overall outlook of an organization’s farm system? Kinda like a future value for the whole club?

Kiley McDaniel: As I said before, be patient. Wouldn’t it be cool if that thing also updated in real-time as guys were added to the system?

Comment From Miles
Phils fan here, Please give me some hope. Say nice things about Carlos Tocci or something.

Kiley McDaniel: You guys are still #1 at cheese steaks!

Kiley McDaniel: Oh and Ruben Amaro was excited after a couple homers sailed out at a HS baseball game I saw him at, so that emotion is still in there

Comment From Philip
Do you think zech lemmond has the stuff and durability to hold up as a starter?

Kiley McDaniel: Durability is the question after shoulder trouble last spring and generally pitching at Rice. The stuff is there to start, but he’s been a reliever most of his college career, so that is the big question and will dictate his value. I lean toward reliever on him.

Comment From Small Ball
Any small college players look to be in play in the first five rounds besides the ones you have already listed?

Kiley McDaniel: Small college, haven’t heard of many past Tanner Rainey at West Alabama. Lots of JC guys and there’s always a couple anonymous ones that sneak in the top 5 rounds. Josh Staumont at Azusa Pacific and Cody Ponce at Cal Poly Pomona were known names last summer and Staumont last spring. There’s some smaller D1’s on my lists but those are the small school big names. Kyle Wilcox at Bryant has a shot as well along with Mariano Rivera Jr at Iona and Austin Allen at Florida Tech

Comment From mtsw
What’s the deal with Jason Garcia? So far in Baltimore, he looks the part of “guy who never played above A-ball” but without the supposedly elite velocity. Should Baltimore waive him, recalibrate the radar gun in Sarasota and move on with their lives? What’s the upside to burning a roster spot on him if he can only throw 93-94?

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think a Rule 5 reliever has ever gotten someone that worked up before. Not sure what to tell you, but I wonder about your priorities. The thing with velo guys is sometimes the velo isn’t there, especially when you throw them in the deep end of the pool and they’re forced to try to survive. That’s why 29 other teams didn’t pick him when they knew the stuff was there.

Comment From Chicago Mark
Hello Kiley, Care to give a stats prediction on Syndergaard tonight.

Kiley McDaniel: Nope!

Comment From Shohei
What level of prospect is Shintaro Fujinami?

Kiley McDaniel: Very good, but not Otani-level. That’s the dude in Japan. Every scout I’ve talked to says Shohei Otani is better than Darvish.

Comment From Shawn
#1 beer for you?

Kiley McDaniel: I’m a Guinness man

Comment From Ben
Is there anything “more special” about Carlos Correa that would indicate he would have less growing pains in MLB than SS like Bogaerts and Russell?

Kiley McDaniel: That stuff is random, as far as being able to predict it. I know you fantasy players don’t like hearing it.

Comment From Hoff
What would the Rangers need to see from Joey Gallo to get him to the bigs this year? Especially with whats looking more and more like a lost season.

Kiley McDaniel: Especially when it’s a lost season, you save the service time. If they call him up and he goes 2 for 20 with 12 K’s, will you complain they brought him up too fast and ruined him and he doesn’t belong in MLB? If so, you’re basically the reason he isn’t up. Shiny toys are fun, though.

Comment From Cubbie Blues
Who from the draft is most likely to be a Kyle Schwarber – a polished college bat who goes earlier than expected?

Kiley McDaniel: By definition I can’t know this because I’m helping set expectations

Comment From Brock Sampson
What are you hearing regarding Bundy’s return? The results appear to be mostly good and I’ve heard much of his stuff has returned, but I haven’t heard anything substantial.

Kiley McDaniel: Nothing better than 60 and lots of 50 and 55 from what I’ve been told. Peak was 70’s and 80’s

Comment From Frank Cesare
do you think at times, Folty will flash a 70 slider? and will he ever be able to consistently use it at that level?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve talked to a scout that put a 70 on the breaking ball, but I’ve only seen him flash 60 at times, which is what most scouts report.

Comment From matt
should we be excited for maikel franco’s promotion? will the phillies brutally screw up the development of another top prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: Should we send the Red Cross to Philly? These people are down, man. Some social workers and psychologists, too.

Comment From Josh G
Can Kodi Medeiros succeed as a starter, or is he destined to be a reliever?

Kiley McDaniel: I think starter, but he’s super unique and scouts are risk averse, so they’re gonna say reliever when they don’t have an MLB comparable. This answer was brought to you by: keeping your job.

Comment From Larry David
How far out of your top 200 is Trevor Story? What’s the FV looking like there?

Kiley McDaniel: Outside for now, but I’m looking into it, so could be in there in a few weeks. Not due to stats, just trying to figure out if anything changed or if he’s just pouncing on fastballs the first time thru the league.

Comment From Tom
Would Chris Carter’s offense be a realistic floor for Gallo’s MLB future?

Kiley McDaniel: Chris Carter hit 37 homers last year. I know people in this chat like prospects and may tend to overrate them, but you realize a bunch of these guys are gonna totally suck, right? And we don’t know which ones.

Comment From Derek
What are your thoughts on Aaron Judge? He’s off to a terrific start to the season at Trenton. Is there a scenario where we see him in Pinstripes at any point this season?

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think so. I thought Judge would have some trouble in A-Ball, but he steamrolled through it and is so far doing the same in AA. He’s obviously beating expectations so far.

Comment From Phillies113
I almost asked you an Aaron Nola question, but then I remembered you’ve written about him before, so I’m not going to ask you an Aaron Nola question now.

Kiley McDaniel: Three 60’s at his best with 55 command, but the stuff can play down a tick and he throws from a low slot, so that gets into the “not a lot of comparables, so I’ll round him down” area for scouts. I’m on the high side.

Comment From Metsfan
Would you trade Syndergard straight up for Addison Russel if you were the mets?

Kiley McDaniel: 19th on my list (Noah) vs. 3rd (Russell) and I give the benefit of the doubt to hitters in these types of questions, so yes.

Comment From matt
who do you think would be a good pick for the phillies at 10? if stephenson is there should they get him?

Kiley McDaniel: Teams try to hit home runs in the first round instead of taking what’s there. Happened with Stroman and I think it’ll happen again with Carson Fulmer. If the expected players go top 5-7, he’s the guy I take. The Phillies need to get something out of this pick.

Comment From Nick
If Jeff Hoffman were available, where would he go in this draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Well we haven’t seen the post-TJ stuff in a game yet, but seems like he’s all back. I’d take current Hoffman 1-1 in this draft and might take him over Rodon as 1-1 in last year’s draft, too. I said healthy Hoffman (pre-TJ) was clearly my top prospect in last year’s draft and this year’s draft is weaker.

Comment From joe
what about prospect evaluation do you think can or will be improved upon in the next 5-10 years?

Kiley McDaniel: Creating scouting big data

Comment From Josh I
Let’s say Manfred announces today that all draft picks are now tradeable. What is the value of the average first overall pick, in terms of players? Worth a rental pitcher, two years of an average outfielder, what?

Kiley McDaniel: On average, probably about what the 25th or 30th prospect is like. Usually available in trade for a couple years of a 60 or better FV guy. 1.5 years of Price was traded for a good big leaguer and ~90th overall prospect

Comment From Marshall
Going into this past weekend’s series between Florida & Vandy I expected AJ Puk to remind me of a lefty version of Alex Meyer. I came away thinking that was the closest thing to David Price I’ve seen since 2007. Did that series potentially feature the next two #1 overall picks?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes

Comment From Ryan
Moncada

Kiley McDaniel: Good question

Comment From Colby
are we out of the sss window yet?

Kiley McDaniel: For prospects, we never are. You can’t change a projection just based on one season of numbers, if that’s all you have.

Comment From Bart
What present day pitcher might you compare Noah Syndergaard to?

Kiley McDaniel: Well he’s literally pitching on this present day, so I’ll go with Noah Syndergaard.

Kiley McDaniel: There’s similarities to Jordan Zimmermann and early John Lackey

Comment From Lalo
Do you see shades of Meadows in the way Daz Cameron is viewed right now? I remember reading a lot the year of his draft about how scouts were questioning him and generally the idea was that he was dropping. Is something similar happening to Daz?

Kiley McDaniel: Meadows was always seen as a top 10 guy by every scout, it was a debate about #1 or #10. Cameron is seen anywhere from 5th to 30th (in a much worse draft) and has had uneven performance and just good, not great tools. Not the same thing. That said, some of the same teams that liked Meadows over Frazier are also high on Cameron. Not the same kind of player, but both are long track record, toolsy at a young age prep outfielders.

Comment From Avery
Any prospects that you are higher on than other scouts or rankings?

Kiley McDaniel: You have access to all the lists, I feel like you could make a more comprehensive list than what I can recall. Albies is one that comes to mind, Carson Fulmer in the draft. Stroman since day one. Forrest Wall in last year’s draft.

Comment From Chad
What do you see from Hoffman this year? Does he reach the Jays in 2015? As SP or RP?

Kiley McDaniel: SP, 2016 at the earliest

Comment From Kyle
Any players connected to Atlanta with any of their picks in the draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Wrote about this in the mock linked at the top

Comment From Comegys
How do you deal with age among HS players when ranking the 2017 players? It seems like so many of the kids are held back these days and that a HS kid 1 year older than another kid will definitely look much better at age 16 than another kid at age 15. Also, if you were drafting would this matter to you? Rodgers is older than Brady Aiken.

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, but you have to take that information in context. Rodgers had less tools as a HS junior than he does now, but he would’ve been a late 1st rounder then. He was the top prep player in this class two summers ago, when he was 16. The fact that we watch him for another 6 months doesn’t change that he’s been the best kid in his class for years, it just means we should give the younger kids a little more rope when comparing them. The track record of kids that are the best in their class from 16 to 18 is ridiculously good, particularly among hitters.

Comment From Tim
TB doesn’t often rush pitching prospects, but just how good is Blake Snell and has his early dominance and TB’s injuries made any difference on his big league ETA?

Kiley McDaniel: Still command issues, stuff is pretty much the same but a little more arm speed. Doesn’t really change ETA, especially with their deep SP group.

Comment From Larry David
Oh hey I just found the FV of Story after reading through one of the links you posted. Go figure. Thx.

Kiley McDaniel: Or you could go to his player page. It’s there, too!

Comment From Judge and Executioner
Thoughts on Perazas hot start and when, and how, it translates in Atlanta?

Kiley McDaniel: Same dude. Question has always been how that will play at the MLB level (early count contact hitter with speed) and performing in AAA doesn’t really tell us anything. What scouts are seeing is much more important.

Comment From Tim
Someone like Alex Wood…What is he worth in term of prospects? A top 50/ 2 top 100 Prospects? Thanks for the help in trying to gauge trade value among young MLB regulars

Kiley McDaniel: Since he doesn’t have a pretty delivery and wasn’t a huge prospect coming up, probably just one top 100 guy and couple other solid dudes. Also depends on which team is making the first call. If Braves are shopping him, then lower end, if teams calls and has targeted him, then maybe 2 top 100 guys.

Comment From Kyle
Will Josh Bell have enough power to stick at 1B?

Kiley McDaniel: Just barely, but scouts are a little concerned about the upside

Comment From Marshall
Ruben Amaro was watching AJ Puk hold his ridiculous velocity late in his start vs Vandy this past weekend….with a crane in the background that Puj did not climb

Kiley McDaniel: Well, that we THINK Puk didn’t climb

Comment From Kingpin
With the caveat that I understand the Diamondbacks are impossible to predict, what are they going to do with Peter O’Brien? The bat seems ready now, but he can’t play catcher and they already have like 10 OF’s on the big league roster.

Kiley McDaniel: Seems like poor planning to have a last place NL team’s top 10 assets include like 8 1B/LF/DH’s, doesn’t it?

Comment From bpqa
What exactly is bat speed? Is it literally the peak speed at which the batter can swing the bat, or is it the quickness with which the batter can go from deciding to swing to getting the bat through the zone, i.e. bat quickness?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s how fast your bat is, as a proxy for margin for error in your swing. People try every week in this chat to claim we could just measure that with a radar gun or something but that isn’t really the point, since we don’t diagnose swing flaws with a slide rule, so judging the margin for error via bat speed in a perfectly objective way won’t really help anything since the more important part of the equation is super subjective and based on what things look like and how you react to outside stimuli, not a number.

Comment From Avery
Long term Odor or Travis?

Kiley McDaniel: Long term Odor is not a phrase I want to speak or hear or read

Comment From Colby
Do you see Oliver Drake as a top tier closer someday or just a quad a guy?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s a pretty wide gap, but way closer to AAAA than top tier closer

Comment From Daniel
Is Houston really out on Rodgers?

Kiley McDaniel: Not from what I’m hearing

Kiley McDaniel: But I do hear conflicting info on HOU’s preference re: Rodgers or Swanson. Close to coin flip according to the industry, don’t have a great feel for what HOU will definitely do, but I’m pretty sure that’s because they don’t know yet either. It would be dumb to have already decided.

Comment From mtsw
Do certain organizations lean towards college players or HS players as a matter of philosophy? (“Moneyball” claimed the A’s leaned towards college guys but that was an eternity ago)

Kiley McDaniel: Well we have hard data on who teams are drafting, but often times, if it’s anywhere close to 50/50, it’s just random variation making up that gap. Some teams definitely lean heavily one way or the other as a philosophy, but this can change when results aren’t there, like the Phillies taking a bunch of college guys last year.

Comment From TF Fredrik
After seeing you post the clip of Syndergard I was wondering about the scouts view at games. I always like watching major league games on tv because I get the best view of pitches. sometimes an angle might be off a little which can play tricks with the pitches on the corners but still I feel comfortable watching from this view and knowing what pitches are thrown and where they are caught. Scouts mainly sit behind the plate correct? To me this view doesn’t seem the same. Is it something I would appreciate more if I just saw more from back there? Do you like that view yourself or would you prefer behind the pitcher? I am sure there are reasons they’re called the scouts seats.

Kiley McDaniel: The TV angle drives me crazy. By definition, due to the batter’s eye, it’s either way too high or too off to the side and could usually be zoomed in some, too. Scouts get to basically sit at the perfect angle and back there you can see all kinds of stuff re: pitch movement you can’t see on TV. Not even a question for me.

Comment From mikeleelop
fans are freaking out that Sanchez will flame out as a starter due to command/control issues – 7bb/9inn… is there a reason to have an optimistic outlook for him going forward?

Kiley McDaniel: You should panic and be stressed all day about it! I think he’s a late-inning reliever and that’s a good outcome from what he was as drafted. Everyone can’t be a star.

Comment From Mike
Is there anyone in DE worth watching for this draft or in the near future?

Kiley McDaniel: Jason Bilous was the rare DE prep pitcher with some upside, but he missed the spring with TJ surgery. DE product Jake Fraley may be a 1st rounder out of LSU in 2016. Other than that, no.

Comment From Dan
I don’t follow prospects that closely, but who would you say has Bryce Harper potential in 2016 or 2017?

Kiley McDaniel: No one. If there was a Bryce Harper every few years, that wouldn’t be a thing to ask about. You’d ask where all the Mickey Mantles are.

Comment From mtsw
Any colleges stand out as particularly hard/easy to pry guys away from if they’ve commited there?

Kiley McDaniel: Stanford and Vandy are tough. Parent like the education and they target more well off kids for obvious reasons. Almost every other school is about the same-matters more about the kid than the school to gauge signability.

Comment From Josh G
When will MLB allow trading of draft picks?

Kiley McDaniel: One day, yes. In my lifetime? No idea.

Comment From Hoff
Baez for Syndegaard, who says no?

Kiley McDaniel: Baez is kinda radioactive at this point. Would be dumb to trade him now unless the Cubs have no faith in him.

Comment From Philip
Joey Gallo reminds me of Barry Bonds with more power

Comment From TF Fredrik
Are, the ‘who have you heard about so & so picking at 35?’ questions your new ‘tell me about X prospect 15 games into the season?’ questions? So little thought in them. Don’t understand why people ask that.

Comment From Matt
Did you hear anything about how Reynaldo Lopez looked in his first start? The statline certainly looked nice. Is he a guy who could fly up prospect lists if his breakout continues this year?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s already in the 50’s on my top 100 and he’s been good for part of one season. He’s already good!

Kiley McDaniel: Alrighty thats all folks