Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 6/23/15

11:05
Kiley McDaniel: I’m still on the road, working my way around Florida for a few more days lining up some Florida State League games before I head back to the ATL

11:06
Comment From Bret
Jeff Hoffman thoughts from yesterday? Please and thanks, sir.

11:09
Kiley McDaniel: Once I get some time (should be next few days), I’ll write up Hoffman and Alex Reyes. Hoffman was 93-97 last night, curveball flashed the same as it was before TJ and he threw the changeup a lot more often. TOR has made his delivery less aggressive, more upright and more crossfire and he throws a slower curve most of the time, saving the best one for when he needs it. He’s also pitching to contact to limit pitch count and using his third best pitch (CH) more, which explains the lower than expected K rate. I’ll elaborate more, but this is more wait and see than good or bad. More important to see if TOR lets Hoffman loose next year

11:10
Comment From Brian
Where does Touki go in your Atlanta prospect rankings now?

11:13
Kiley McDaniel: Bethancourt, Wisler and Folty should be graduating this year, Peraza may as well. That leaves Albies, Rio Ruiz, Max Fried, Ricardo Sanchez, Manny Banuelos, Lucas Sims, Braxton Davidson, Tyrell Jenkins and Mallex Smith at the upper part of that list. I’d say Touki and Allard both would fit among the first few names. Should both be top 6-7 in the system next year.

11:13
Comment From Dan
Ruddy Giron. I know you’re probably tired of q’s about him, but… Is the word on him he’s a likely SS going forward? Would it be fair to put a 50 FV/OFP on him with a lot of variance top or bottom to that?

11:16
Kiley McDaniel: Probably a lower end 45 FV right now, maybe high 40. Haven’t made a lot of calls on him, but HS senior age guy not striking out in Low-A and playing shortstop is a really good place to start, just not the ridiculous tools of, say an Amed Rosario, to be a top 50-100 guy with limited pro track record.

11:16
Comment From Brett Cecil
Do you think Osuna eventually is a SP? Possible number 3?

11:18
Kiley McDaniel: Opinion entering the year was a little more reliever than starter and the TJ in the rear view doesn’t help that, as does the relief success this year. I would guess relief, but probably gets a shot to start at some point. Problem is, after MLB relief success, the leash gets short for keeping him as a starter since they know the backup plan will work.

11:18
Comment From mcf1417
Does the Touki trade bump the Braves up any further in organizational rankings?

11:19
Kiley McDaniel: Don’t have a great sense for that right now with trades, in-season performances and the draft. Should have more on this after the draft signing deadline

11:19
Comment From Guest
How concerned are you about DJ Peterson?

11:20
Kiley McDaniel: It wasn’t great when I saw him earlier this year. A little off-balance, seems to be pressing/guessing a bit, but the tools are the same, so I chalk it up to more of abad stretch and snowballing than real long term issues. Maybe moves back his timetable, maybe slide him down the list a bit, but nothing major.

11:20
Comment From Josh G
Does Orlando Arcia profile similarly to Alcides Escobar with the bat, or is there more power potential there?

11:20
Kiley McDaniel: Little more pop, maybe a little less glove, but the bat has played more than expected, so maybe it’ll keep happening

11:20
Comment From Bugs Meany
What do you make of the changed approach Nick Williams has shown this year? Is the improvement real?

11:21
Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t made calls on him yet but we’re starting to get to the point that it’s hard to explain this away as a fluke. The P/PA and K rate were the thing holding back his potential and there are very few examples of guys fixing that once they’ve been in pro ball for a few years. So, I’m surprised and hopeful but still a little skeptical for now, until I learn more.

11:21
Comment From Jobu
Thoughts on Alex Reyes?

11:24
Kiley McDaniel: Sat 96-100, hit a couple 101s, curve flashed 65, maybe even 70, change was fringy to average and the delivery is really really easy, esp when considering the absurd arm strength. Delivery and athleticism says he should have better CMD than he does, but I think he’s still learning to harness all that new armspeed. I say starter and could be frontline, but it’ll take a few years to work it all out. Average command flashed at times, so I think it’s in there and STL has been good with teasing that out of less talented arms.

11:24
Comment From Jake
Any change on Cubs international targets since the last update?

11:24
Kiley McDaniel: Lots of July 2 stuff coming later this week. I think you’ll like it.

11:24
Comment From Leprekhan
Any reason to worried that Kolby Allard hasn’t officially signed yet?

11:24
Kiley McDaniel: No. He isn’t pitching anytime soon, so no rush

11:25
Comment From Not the guy from the comment section
Any comps for Anthony Alford? What kind of tools does he have? 70 speed, 55 hit, 45 power with 60 raw?

11:26
Kiley McDaniel: 70 run, 55 raw. Upside is enormous and this is his first year fulltime playing baseball http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

11:27
Comment From Will
How do you gauge feel for the barrel head?

11:30
Kiley McDaniel: It’s more art than science. Some is how handsy the swing is, how well he hits balls when he’s fooled or off balance, how well he manipulates his swing to hit different sorts of pitches…that sort of thing.

11:30
Comment From Alex
Heard anything about Clinton Hollon’s start back from TJ?

11:31
Kiley McDaniel: Per FG prospects writer Chris King he was 91-93 t95 in his first extended spring start off TJ

11:31
Comment From Josh G
Odds that a team signs Melissa Mayeux?

11:31
Kiley McDaniel: This is a true no win question for me

11:31
Comment From Matt
What are some things you look for in ‘breakout’ pitcher candidates, either in their statistical profile or watching them live?

11:33
Kiley McDaniel: Gotta be live. Anyone can see a good stat line and I’m not appreciably better than other internet people at decoding those. I can notice things in game that other scouts may pass over or not weight the same way that I do. I’m not saying they completely miss stuff that I see, but there’s so much info from a 100-pitch outing that the opinions will vary after seeing the same thing.

11:33
Comment From Curioso
Matt Boyd. He’s cruising through the minors but his projections are still kinda meh. Do you see him continuing his success or see him dive bombing fast?

11:34
Kiley McDaniel: Talked about him in last week’s chat. Stuff randomly ticked up and he’s a guy now. You’ll see him higher on lists this offseason (and sooner from me, when I update the lists).

11:34
Comment From matchphoric
thoughts on raimel tapia?

11:35
Kiley McDaniel: A whole bunch of them here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

He can really hit

11:35
Comment From Mike
Off of the Osuna question…would an org see more value in Osuna as a mid rotation starter or higher end reliever like he is right now?

11:36
Kiley McDaniel: mid rotation starter is worth more than basically every reliever in baseball, maybe minus a couple of them. It’s just much harder to do one and people already thought Osuna may not be able to do it

11:36
Comment From Pete
How dumb is it to draft college relievers in the first round with the intention of converting them to a SP role? See: Howard, Nick.

11:37
Kiley McDaniel: Michael Lorenzen went from college closer/right fielder to big league starter in less than 2 years. I’d say that one worked.

11:37
Comment From Giants Fanboy
Any of the top J2 prospects linked to the Giants right now?

11:38
Kiley McDaniel: They don’t have a deal with a big money guy, but I know they’re trying hard on one of the uncommitted prospects

11:38
Comment From Mitchell
What should the braves do with peraza considering Peterson, Simmons, maybin and smith’s fantastic year in double a? Do they trade him or see if he can be better than Peterson or what?

11:39
Kiley McDaniel: Too many good players isn’t a problem, it’s an opportunity. They could easily sell high on Maybin and slide Mallex into that spot, but they look dumb if Mallex isn’t good. They should/will wait until it’s a pressing issue where they have to make a lineup spot for a guy, not proactively open a spot for an unproven guy.

11:39
Comment From dom
how much do you think Dansby Swanson would receive as a free agent?

11:41
Kiley McDaniel: Depends on what type of contract you’re talking about. Prospects of his quality are generally thought to have an asset value (for their six controlled years, factoring in arb salaries and other stuff) around $30-50 million. Moncada was seen as a better amateur prospect but not by an enormous margin, and BOS paid $63 million for him

11:41
Comment From Guest
Is Franklyn Kilome someone to watch out for?

11:43
Kiley McDaniel: Yes. projectable, young, loose and up to 96 recently, also per FG’s Chris King. One of Philly’s top 10 guys right now, I would guess.

11:43
Comment From Eric
Where are your organizational rankings located in the site? Did you do preseason ones?

11:43
Kiley McDaniel: Nope, but they’re on the way

11:43
Comment From Dan
To follow up with Giron though, if he keeps up anything close to this level of production and hard contact through the end of the year, maybe even getting a look in High A, he’ll shoot up general lists right? I was just curious tools-wise.

11:44
Kiley McDaniel: Tools are good, potential everyday but not huge. Like a little behind Orlando Arcia tools-wise. Check where he was ranked after a season in Low-A.

11:44
Comment From RotoLando
Did you get to hang out in Dunedin at all, or is it all business, then right back to the road?

11:45
Kiley McDaniel: It was in Tampa last night. I’m hanging around Tampa a few days since there’s a lot of teams based here and I’m seeing friends during the day, but I’ll be all business headed back home soon, then off to see Team USA v Cuba, other minor league stuff, etc.

11:45
Comment From The Bronx Empire
Have you heard NYY connected with anybody in this J2 class?

11:46
Kiley McDaniel: Nope, but some teams in the penalty box will get a solid prospect. Lots of high prices coming down, a few sneaking close to 300K

11:46
Comment From Eric
Seems like you were the low man on Touki. Do you think the D-Backs deserved to get roasted like they did?

11:47
Kiley McDaniel: Was I? I was touting him as a HS soph when I first saw him and he was just on the podcast, so I feel like I’m on the Touki train. Just a longer term guy as he’s trying to harness everything. It’s a volatile asset class, but frontline upside

11:50
Kiley McDaniel: And the D’Backs should and have been roasted for this and other decisions they’ve made. Someone accused me of being anti-DBacks when I said something critical of them in the offseason. Here’s the thing: they are doing lots of thing counter to industry consensus, which is fine, but when they start not working out and the two guys running the show have never run the show before, it starts to look like they don’t know what they’re doing, rather than being mavericks with great ideas.

You think the Dodgers wouldn’t have paid more in cash to get Touki? He may end up being nothing, but I think they could’ve gotten more if they looked around. The timing is also odd. Just a lot of slightly weird things start to present this picture of a team losing lots of small marginal value in lots of decisions that is starting to stack up and this new group is still in their first season.

11:51
Comment From mtsw
Do all players on the 40-man roster make MLB minimum or is it only guys who are on the 25-man? Or is it guys who have a certain amount of service time? Sorry: I know this should be google-able but am having trouble finding non-ambiguous info on it.

11:51
Kiley McDaniel: the 15 dudes on the 40 man that are in the minors get more than most if not all of the minor leaguers but not the big league minimum

11:51
Comment From Joe
Does Devers project to be any good defensively at 3rd base, or is he likely to move off the position?

11:52
Kiley McDaniel: Similar to Panda or Maikel Franco. Hands and arm are good, limited laterally and the body could go south making the feet a bonafide problem. Devers is good for now, at this size.

11:52
Comment From mikeleelop
why would the Jays change Hoffman delivery? Also your comment about “letting Hoffman loose next year” means he’s holding back or just not a max effort guy?

11:56
Kiley McDaniel: https://www.youtube.com/wat…

This is Hoffman as an amateur. He’s aggressive down the hill, exploding at the plate. He isn’t that now, much closer to Aaron Sanchez mechanically.

I hope TOR is toning it down, having him pitch to contact, not throw the hard CB (his best pitch), throw more CH as a way to limit the pitch count to protect his arm while it’s more fragile, as he’s coming off of elbow surgery. I don’t know if that is the case, but I hope that’s what it is.

11:56
Comment From dom
what does Kang’s relatively smooth transition to MLB mean for the KBO and its players?

11:57
Kiley McDaniel: May make it a little easier for those guys to get a chance, but he was the best player in the KBO last year. Doesn’t mean that other guys coming over will be better than expected, as he could easily be the exception.

11:57
Comment From Plz is this prospect LEGIT?
How do you become a scout? I heard there are scout schools that team’s have. Is that true? And How hard is it to get into one?

12:00
Kiley McDaniel: There is an MLB scout school that teams can sponsor someone to go to. A team has to send you there and sometimes media members can go if there’s an open spot left. It teaches you the basics and some guys that go and have been scouting in some form for a few years don’t learn much, but newbies learn a ton. Some teams send their data guys so they can learn about scouting and the process.

Some teams don’t send guys there at all because they do their own school, usually at fall instructs, where their scouts come in and help teach the newer hires of people newer to scouting. For me, the best way to learn is a motivated scout that wants to teach you or is open to answering questions. The only way to even make that work is to go to games as often as possible. I didn’t make big jumps in my ability until I averaged more than a game per day a few years back, as that helps you notice things quicker and build a library to compare players.

12:00
Comment From FISHFAN69420
Tell me not to be alarmed re: Kolek. That he’s just working on command and secondary pitches, results be damned.

12:02
Kiley McDaniel: I had him 6th in his draft class on draft day. Schwarber, Hoffman, Finnegan and a few others have passed him, but this isn’t some free fall. He’s still top 15 in the class and he’s the kind of guy where it can click in the next year or so and he jumps a few guys. DON’T BE ALARMED YET

12:02
Comment From Brian
Why do you think the potential hit tool for Nick Plummer is 45+ and not 50 or 55?

12:04
Kiley McDaniel: His finish is rigid and will need to be fixed, which usually can be fixed. He’s also only been to a few big events where he faced pro level pitching and performed well at a few, but struggled at another one. His body has changed a few times in the past year and he faced garbage competition this spring, so he may take a little longer than the warm weather guys. He has the tools to be a 55, but there’s plenty of questions to answer.

12:04
Comment From Bret
Are “less aggressive” delivery and “more upright and more crossfire” good things? I’m used to hearing about Aaron Sanchez’ delivery becoming “too upright”.

12:06
Kiley McDaniel: I hate crossfire except as a last ditch effort you do in AA or higher to make stuff play better. I also like aggressive deliveries, like what Hoffman used to do, more than upright and stiffer, tall-and-fall type deliveries. Some teams/scouts disagree with these opinions. There’s pros and cons and examples on both sides and no one player validates or invalidates these opinions.

12:06
Comment From CTW
follow-up: compare and contrast Kolek and Alex Reyes

12:07
Kiley McDaniel: Reyes throws harder, has a better breaking ball and is farther along in general. Prefer him by a good bit

12:07
Kiley McDaniel: Just got a phone call I’ve been waiting on, so I’m dumping you guys. You’ll bounce back tho!





Kiley McDaniel has worked as an executive and scout, most recently for the Atlanta Braves, also for the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates. He's written for ESPN, Fox Sports and Baseball Prospectus. Follow him on twitter.

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Jeff
8 years ago

Should Jays fans be excited about Anthony Alford?