Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 6/30/15

Kiley McDaniel: Headed to Hickory once we’re done here but you people get me for an hour or so. For most basic July 2 questions see the July 2 board (will be updated any minute when the admin sees my email) http://www.fangraphs.com/sc… and the international article archive http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… which has articles covering many of the more nuanced issues in the int’l game

Comment From mike
Bluejays sign Vandy commit Pruit, anything there besides speed and potential?

Kiley McDaniel: Plus speed, CF fit, twitchy athlete, has bat speed and decent results but swing is inconsistent. solid gamble. thought it would take more money than that to buy out Vandy

Comment From Giants Fanboy
Which do you think the Giants are more closer to signing between Fox and Eddy Julio?

Kiley McDaniel: I think it’s a real but unlikely chance on both. Say around 25%? Could jump in the coming weeks as neither have a deal in place yet.

Comment From Billy
So besides Socrates Brito having an 80 name, does he have much future potential?

Kiley McDaniel: Lefty raw power, some idea how to hit, some athleticism, but more of a backup/AAAA projection at this point

Comment From Steve from Wilmington
So I shouldn’t be worried that the Phillies are going into the Penalty on July 2nd and will be forced to be restricted in July 2016?

Kiley McDaniel: Well they have a big enough pool, when you factor in the 50% max add’l value they can trade for, to fit the two guys I’ve heard them tied to by a hair. Maybe they have a couple more guys targeted I don’t know about, or they’ve targeted a Cuban for later and they’re going way over, but that isn’t clear yet.

Comment From mike
Heard good things about Anderson Espinoza? Any plans to see him in the GCL?

Kiley McDaniel: Heard good things, into the mid-90s and I missed him by a week on my first Florida trip–he flew in the day I was leaving Ft. Myers. Will try to get him in my next trip at the end of this month

Comment From Braves fan
Who do you see as the 5 Braves starters in 2017?

Kiley McDaniel: Anyone who has a confident answer to this doesn’t know what they’re talking about. Mix the current rotation, top tier prospects and leave one spot open for wildcard pop up guy, future draft pick or trade/FA signing.

Comment From MoonOverMyHamels
Is Alfaro a reasonable centerpiece in a Hamels to the Rangers trade? What other pieces would it take?

Kiley McDaniel: Well he’s injured and likely out for the year, so no. Will be updating the team prospect lists soon to answer these sorts of questions, but here’s the list from before the season to give you an idea of possible fits: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Caribe
Can Renfroe play a passable centerfield for the Padres?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think so but won’t say absolutely no

Comment From Anon21
How are people liking Ozhaino Albies’ 2015 campaign? There’s been a drop-off in the raw stats, but is that mostly attributable to age/level?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s younger than many of the HS kids drafted last month and he’s hitting .328/.378/.412 and playing plus defense with plus wheels as a switch hitter in a full-season league. There isn’t a guy that could do that in this draft.

Comment From Julio Pepper
Could Julio Urias be an above average pitcher in the majors right now? He looks absolutely filthy, like a Baby Lefty Pedro.

Kiley McDaniel: He may have been that good last year, we just can’t know since he hasn’t been challenged at that level yet. Also, he’s currently out with an eye issue for a bit longer.

Comment From Darren
Have you gotten any reports on Kyle Zimmer? How he has looked and what the plan is for him the rest of the year?

Kiley McDaniel: Heard the velo was down in short stints when he came off the DL, but he’s coming off shoulder stuff, so give him some time.

Comment From Greg
You’re projecting Pache and Diaz to Atlanta, I’m guessing I should be excited about that as a Braves fan if it happens?

Kiley McDaniel: Look at the board and find a better way to spend $3.4 million. There aren’t very many.

Comment From James
Is Jose Berrios ready for the majors or more to work on? Better yet: if called to the majors, where would you slot him amongst Hughes, Erv, Gibson, Pelfrey, May? Thanks

Kiley McDaniel: Upside better than all of them, hard to say how he’ll react to the best competition he’s ever seen. That said, I saw him about a month ago and he’s the best pitcher I’ve seen all year. He was ready for MLB that night and Terry Ryan was two rows in front of me.

Comment From Fadu
Have you scouted Luca Dalatri yet? If so, initial impressions?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, big raw power, some upside on the mound, still early as the cold weather kids, two-way guys and big guys all tend to take longer to develop and he’s all three.

Comment From Carson Cistulli
Matt Boyd! GO!

Kiley McDaniel: Wrote about him in depth a chat or two ago. The stuff ticked up this year out of nowhere and at an advanced age…so kinda hard to guess where this is going next, but he’d be at least a 45 FV right now.

Comment From Gary
Syndergaard or Rodon going forward?

Kiley McDaniel: Would’ve said Rodon before the year but Thor has exceeded my expectations and Rodon’s issues in college have cropped up again. Pretty close to tossup at this point.

Comment From Chris
How concerned should I be about Moncada? I know he hasn’t played in games for a while, but it’s Low A, and his numbers at the plate are pretty awful. Other Cuban players like Puig showed less rust when they came stateside.

Kiley McDaniel: This is getting a lot of conversation in the industry right now. Everyone liked him as an elite guy, though the price tags varied a bit, all 8 figures, though. Now questions are starting to be asked. Rusney hasn’t worked out that well so far, either. I’m seeing Greenville tonight so maybe I’ll get more clarity on this

Comment From laxtonto
Jenkins (2nd round for Texas)… Legit 7 speed? And no one seems to have any video of his swing..

Kiley McDaniel: Boy are you going to love the Sortable draft board. It answers both questions! http://www.fangraphs.com/sc…

Comment From Caleb
Bundy is shutdown for the year. Is it time to start feeling nauseous about his future?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s out of options next year, too. Has to be in the big leagues or else he has to pass thru waivers and someone will def claim him.

Comment From Derek
Have you heard anything at all about the Brewers and any J2 guys?

Kiley McDaniel: Heard them on a guy that’s been on every version of my list named Simon Muzziotti, a speed type CF from VZ. Should show up in the update to the list whenever that comes thru.

Comment From Darren
Chase Vallot has been doing well with the bat as an 18 year old at Low-A. Can he stick at catcher? How good is the power?

Kiley McDaniel: 20 homer power and maybe http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Jim
Dodger’s are going to sign all the J2 players, for comparison are these top 3 guys equivalent to like 1st round players? Or is it completely different because risk profiles?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah hard to say for sure since there aren’t players like all of them to slot against in the draft. Alvarez is the top guy this year and has thrown about 10 innings for scouts. Fox would go late first to early 2nd and he’s 3rd best of the group for me, so basically yes.

Comment From some guy
any word on Brady Aiken’s signing bonus? Smart move for him to turn down the Astros’ $$ and go to CLE instead (financially and organizational fit)?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s been announced, was over slot by a few hundred thousand. Orgs are both forward thinking and he lost over $2 million and a year in a professional org, so I’d say bad call in hindsight.

Comment From Jelme
Victor Robles has started hot in the GCL after raking in DSL. Is it time to jump on the bandwagon?

Kiley McDaniel: Ranked him 18th in the system this winter off of the DSL and instructs, so I’d say I was already there http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Chris
If Benintendi had put up similar numbers for two straight years, where do you think he would have gone in the draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Scouts wouldn’t have been watching him last spring. The question was around the summer (Team USA/Cape) when they would’ve been watching and he wasn’t there to face top competition daily with a wood bat. Can’t go much higher than 7th, but maybe a few slots.

Comment From Tom
Great coverage of the July 2nd signing period – the Sortable board is a terrific resource. Even with their signing bonus limit of $300K, are there any players being connected to the Yankees?

Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t heard any, but the Red Sox have been tied to a few players and I know another team in the penalty that isn’t NYY with some players lined up, so I’d expect NYY to have on or two guys lined up, I just don’t know who.

Comment From Andrew
Do you think Billy McKinney could hold down the Cubs CF job starting next year until someone like Happ, Almora, or Zagunis emerge?

Kiley McDaniel: Happ is corner OF, Zagunis is corner OF and McKinney is fringy in CF while Almora is fantastic defensively in CF. So, maybe, but don’t think that’ll happen for an extended period.

Comment From Jake H
You getting any reports on Dustin Fowler who was just promoted to the Tampa Yankees?

Kiley McDaniel: Have seen him a bit this year. Solid contact bat with a little power but not outrageous tools, so will have to prove it at each level.

Comment From laxtonto
Latest word is Yoan Moncada is looking more “mlb regular” than “franchise player”, what do you think? totally ridiculous to ask this question about a 20 year old?

Kiley McDaniel: Not ridiculous, but he’s 100 or so PA into his pro career after not playing for over a year. Right to be a little skeptical, but not worried.

Comment From Brian
Us lay people tend to look at the stat line more than the scouting line. Michael Chavis was seen as a 3B with a potential above average hit/power tool but he’s performing terribly so far. Any concern from scouts or is this just a normal case of HS draftee struggling in his first full season?

Kiley McDaniel: Was more avg bat with plus raw power for me at draft time, but a little worried about his mechanics backing up and aggressive approach that replaced more even approach over the summer. Looks like that’s continued, but above avg bat control is in there still.

Comment From Vic
Should Phillies fans be overly excited about the recent developments when it comes to Kilome? What is his ceiling?

Kiley McDaniel: I liked him before the year http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

And our guy Chris King wrote him up with video yesterday http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

There’s frontline potential, in part because he’s so far away, but I’d say mid-rotation as a more reasonable projection given pitcher attrition.

Comment From Greg
Kiley does Vlad Jr have a cannon for an arm like his father did?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope http://www.fangraphs.com/sc…

Comment From Chris
How likely is Michael Kopech to be a starter by the time he makes the majors? He obviously has a lot of velocity and a solid breaking ball, but his command and change up seem to leave something to be desired.

Kiley McDaniel: That’s the question. It’s AJ Burnett if it all goes right, late inning relief if it goes okay and flameout if it goes badly. In general, the middle outcome is the most reasonable, but with pitchers, the worst case scenario is sadly the most likely

Comment From Kingpin
Will Hector Olivera even get MLB time this year? I know he’s only been in teh states a few months, but he had a checkered medical history in Cuba previously. Is it too premature to call him injury prone?

Kiley McDaniel: He’ll be in the big leagues this year and he’s been banged up before, so yeah I guess you could call him that

Comment From zackleftyp
Any thoughts on Jeremy Rhoades?

Comment From Astros Fan
where do you come down on Colin Moran as a prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: For questions like these, search the player name in the upper left corner and see the articles called Evaluating the Prospects: [Team Name]. Opinion hasn’t changed on either this year.

Comment From Friedman Jewelers
At this point, is it safe to say that everyone was low on Maikel Franco’s abilities, or is he going to get figured out?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s an aggressive hitter and those guys often hit early then regress as the league adjusts. He’s at the very top end of expectations right now, so I”d expect him to regress a bit.

Comment From Proswagonist
With international players being locked up so early, do July 2 surprises ever occur?

Kiley McDaniel: Sure, just not that many and usually not on the top players

Comment From Matt Boyd
Matt Boyd? Is he Clayton Kershaw yet? Matt Boyd!!

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll hang up and listen

Comment From Sawx
Have you written on Rafael Devers yet? I’d love to hear more about him.

Kiley McDaniel: Wrote him up twice and graded his tools, all can be found here on his player page http://www.fangraphs.com/st…

Seeing him again tonight, may upgrade hit and game power tools by the end of the year

Comment From Me
Why does life suck?

Kiley McDaniel: You don’t ask me enough chat questions

Comment From Friedman Jewelers
any FV uptick for Ryan Cordell now that he’s really breaking out?

Kiley McDaniel: probably 40 but intirguing

Comment From Billy
Peter OB ever going back behind the plate?

Kiley McDaniel: I hope not

Comment From Billy
Does Gary Sanchez have upside still?

Kiley McDaniel: 70 raw power, 60-70 arm, potential to catch if he feels like it, feel for the bat head…it’s all still there

Kiley McDaniel: Also, I feel like there’s a lot of prospect fatigue on Sanchez. If he took the trajectory of Kyle Schwarber but performed the same as he is now, people would be more excited.

Comment From Hugo Z
Is there any new way to explain to people that three months of good, but not exceptional play from Jace Peterson is not a reason to ship off Peraza?

Kiley McDaniel: Well that’s not THE reason, but if you feel Peterson is the guy for the next year or two, Mallex Smith and Maybin are the CF and someone offers your at least retail value for Peraza….then that could be a reason.

Comment From Joe
In the amateur draft, which player did you think got picked too early? Too late?

Kiley McDaniel: Trenton Clark to MIL at 15 for basically slot was the best value in the top 15

Comment From bagman
Does this feel like the end of Dylan Bundy’s chance at making it?

Kiley McDaniel: Not at all

Comment From Flavored Joe
Austin Meadows: any concerns about the lack of power? The FSL only explains away so much.

Kiley McDaniel: He was always going to be a later developing game power type guy. Doesn’t even show it to you in BP that often because he isn’t trying to yoke it at any time, more hard line drives that will grow into loft

Comment From Guest
did the Astros get 3 top 8 talents in this years draft?

Kiley McDaniel: 3, 4 and 12 for me http://www.fangraphs.com/sc…

Comment From Jeff
Valddy Jr a chance to be a Star?

Kiley McDaniel: 65 raw power projection and feel to hit. Could turn into something like that, but there’s a long way to go

Comment From Bren
So have the Mets lucked out with early deals for Gimenez and Guerrero, or can we pretend that it’s just really good scouting?

Kiley McDaniel: It was a near dog fight to get Amed Rosario a few years back, but NYM got him because they pulled the trigger early. Seems to be a trend now.

Comment From Billy
Thoughts on Miguel Castro making it back to bigs this year… Bullpen or starter short and long term?

Kiley McDaniel: Gotta let him start, not sure if he stick there or not but have to find out

Comment From Sandy Kazmir
Have you even seen any of the Rays farm clubs play this year or are you just going by whatever Boston’s front office tells you to report?

Kiley McDaniel: Fun! Saw Rays/Red Sox GCL game last week. Rays had more talent. Orlando Romero was into mid-90’s, Adrian Rondon looked great and I heard Sandy Brito has recently been into the high 90s

Comment From mike wants wins
How will any team “win” next year’s July 2 signing period, if twenty+ teams can go over, and they all think there will be no penalty for doing so? If there are 20 elite prospects, aren’t they all getting maybe 2? Shouldn’t more teams be going all in this year?

Kiley McDaniel: Let’s tone that question down a couple dozen notches. No one wins July 2nd on July 3rd. It happens years later, with the first pole being 2-3 years later when we find out what kind of trade value these guys have. Because 20+ teams can go over doesn’t mean they all will, or even half of them will. 20+ could go over this year and it looks like 3-5 actually will. I’ve heard of 3-5 teams that are already looking to go over next year, so I think the outcome will be about the same as this year, but less 7 figure players left out since this year was particularly deep and 5-7 teams eyed going over but opted not to.

And for the teams that go over next year, there almost certainly will be sanctions via lost high picks in the likely int’l draft for 2017.

Comment From Guesto
Would a decent Jorge Mateo comp be Billy Hamilton? Speedy slap hitters?

Kiley McDaniel: The tools aren’t completely different at the same stage, but google the fangraphs jorge mateo video. Body and actions are totally different. Mateo has better shot at SS and is 80 runner with normal first step, Hamilton was literally off the scale with a crazy first step.

Comment From Jackson
Assuming he makes it, odds Greg Bird avoids the nickname, “Big Bird”?

Kiley McDaniel: maybe 50/50? He isn’t that tall.

Comment From baltic+wolf
Kiley: can you see Pete O’Brien being a contributor to the DBacks either later this season or next? A ton of Ks but great power in a hitter’s park and moved recently to the OF. What is his power potential in the bigs?

Kiley McDaniel: All comes down to contact and we know the BA will probably never be better than .260 or .270 true talent wise (aside from BABIP flukes, etc), but it could also be .220 with muted game power from the raw 65 power. Won’t know until he gets MLB at-bats.

Comment From Nick
When Jung Ho Kang came over I read that his leg kick would be a problem in several scouting reports. It seemed like no one thought he could just make it smaller. Do scouts generally believe that a hitter’s mechanics are set in stone?

Kiley McDaniel: At that age with that kind of success under his belt, that’s generally correct. Scouts mostly think that and they’re mostly right.

Comment From Sandy Kazmir
Do you think in some futuristic utopia that the Rays minor leaguers could get recognized as prospects or do you think that prospect “experts” will still be on the take from the richest teams at that time?

Kiley McDaniel: You seem to have some anger issues. I gave the Rays the longest list of “prospects” in the whole series and said there was a lot of upside with multiple guys that could breakout and give them some elite guys, which would push them above the middle tier of systems.

Snell has done that to some degree (command still a bit behind) and Honeywell has continued from his early success. I’m not your problem.

http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Teddy
It appears that Richard Urena has shown more power than expected this year with 12 HR’s. Do you have any updates on him?

Kiley McDaniel: Talked to a scout a few weeks back that was bullish on him and Dawel Lugo relative to where I had them pre-season. They may both get a bump when I make more calls. Like Lugo in my 2-game look on him in FL.

Comment From Giants Fanboy
Is Kyle Crick’s command unsolvable and should just be converted to a reliever?

Kiley McDaniel: Wouldn’t say unsolvable but maybe not worth trying to make into a starter. SF had no sense of urgency on this topic from my convos with their FO for the list, so maybe they’ll start him another year, but at some point you have to explore late inning relief for Crick.

Comment From hfb
when a scouting report mentions “feel to hit” what specific hitting skill is being referenced? plate discipline? contact ability?

Kiley McDaniel: Bat control, keeping mechanics consistent or making them work when they’re off-balance/fooled. Generally lower K rate, more contact. Nothing to do with plate discipline, but often one will show up where the other is.

Comment From Guesto
Andy MacPhail most necessary and ASAP decision will be…..

Kiley McDaniel: I have some ideas and I bet he does, but AMP’s stated course of action is to gather information, which is what I’d do before anything drastic happens. Something drastic would happen if I were in his spot.

Comment From Proswagonist
Will you be attending the Futures Game?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep

Comment From Sean
Hi, I’ve been trying to get info on Carlos Tocci. Is there any reason for his improvement this year? Is it just being a year older, adding weight/muscle, or is the stat line misleading and there’s not improvement? Any info on that?

Kiley McDaniel: Added weight, matured. Saw him briefly last week in FL. Is big enough now that the bat isn’t getting knocked out of his hands. Will be higher on the list, but my look on him was uneven.

Comment From Cubs Fan
Why is Luis Medina considered a relief prospect at 16? Am I missing something?

Kiley McDaniel: Watch the video. The delivery is horrendous. There are some other concerns that are more speculative and we’ll find out if they’re true in time.

Comment From Bucky
Are any teams rumored to be more heavily involved in the Kevin Maitan sweepstakes?

Kiley McDaniel: There are 3-5 teams looked to go big next year and that derby started months ago. If a team isn’t in by now, I don’t think they have a chance, but lots of teams are in already.

Comment From Giants Fanboy
If we ever see an international draft as soon as next year, is there a possibility that the teams that are planning to spend over the cap this year are going to be amnestied?

Kiley McDaniel: Can’t come until 2017. has to be CBA change and it expires Dec 1 2016.

Comment From Danny
Any J2 signings from last year sticking out yet?

Kiley McDaniel: Top guys on the lists were Lara/MIL, Rondon/TB and Hernandez/SEA with a number of players a little lower in the 40 FV range, led by De Leon/NYY. I’d probably still break down the big dogs from last year that way.

Kiley McDaniel: Alrighty I’m gonna hit the road to see Greenville/HIckory tonight, then Dave Cameron for lunch tomorrow and college Team USA v Cuba the rest of the week in Raleigh/Durham/Charlotte.