Kiley McDaniel Spooky Chat – 10/31/18

Kiley McDaniel: Coming to you from Florida for one last time, it’s Kileychat

Mets: We hired an agent…. WTF? honestly, I don’t see how even a regular GM would see anything but a full teardown as the only option.

Kiley McDaniel: The Brodie Van Wagenen hire is definitely one drawing some conversation around the game. It’s definitely not normal to have a GM that is recused from talking contract extension with your best player. The game has also changed so much in the last 5-10 years and agents have almost no exposure to all of these new facets.

I’m not saying they/Brodie don’t understand the stats we talk about here, but you’ll need to staff up/direct an R+D department, know their blind spots, hire scouts, hire coaches, etc. Not every GM is good at this, but how can we expect BVW to be good at this right away with no prior exposure to any of it, working with people he essentially doesn’t know? We also don’t know what sort of personnel decisions he’ll make, whom he’ll hire/fire in the front office…there’s just a lot of questions.

Kiley McDaniel: He could be good–I don’t want to be cast as knocking the hire just due to lack of information about him–but it just seems like an odd decision and one that’s impossible to judge for awhile.

Walter O’Malley : Which is worse for pitcher health? Throwing 100 mph or throwing 100 pitches?

Kiley McDaniel: 100 mph. That’s the biggest known cause of arm injuries. Rest between starts would go way ahead of pitches per start in terms of importance for predicting injuries. There’s a reason relievers get used 2-3 days in a row and blow out more often.

James Brandon: If you were a GM, how much (if any) effort would you put into scouting independent leagues?

Kiley McDaniel: Very little. You can narrow it down to a handful of guys you may be interested in and a resourceful person can call coaches and get velos to where you could just ask a lower level scout to go to a couple games a month, if a guy seems interesting in a spot where you could actually let him play. I’ve been involved in some successful indy signings and we only had a scout watch the player in some circumstances.

Fred: Do you have any inkling as to what FV Yusei Kikuchi might get? Or rather what kind of starter he might be?

Kiley McDaniel: League average or so, maybe 55 FV, but some concerns as stuff/performance wasn’t quite as good this year and he’s only 27. The Japanese arms usually succeed in MLB early, especially if there’s some funk in the delivery/arsenal, but often get adjusted to unless they’re an outlier in some way and I’m not sure Kikuchi is.

Alex: How honest do you think scouts and front office types are compared to the general population?

Kiley McDaniel: In non-work environments, they aren’t any different than normal people, other than drinking a lot more. For work, they probably have a similar about of biases about strong beliefs as anyone, maybe a little more

Jacob: Better projected outfield defense: Eloy Jimenez or Christin Stewart?

Kiley McDaniel: We have Stewart as a DH and Eloy as a RF

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: yo dawg this chat is spooky af

TKDC: Is Fangraphs going to give its own free agent predictions like Dave Cameron used to do? Also, when can we expect to see the results?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes and they will be done by *shuffles papers*

Kiley McDaniel: ME

Kiley McDaniel: coming out Monday, I’ll handicap the market for each guy and another FG staffer will handicap the player

Cotty: Ok so this is a terribly dumb question, but: what exactly do prospects do all winter?

Kiley McDaniel: Once the Fall League ends, mostly go home and try not to get fat, some actively work on stuff or try to improve, some play winter league in various Latin countries

GM Guy: You think BVW has any knowledge on how to organize a scouting department? Thoughts on actually scouting players below A Ball? Is that stuff just still going to be decided by Ricco, Minaya, and co?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean we don’t even know if, other than Minaya, everyone else is staying in their current roles. I would imagine BVW will lean on Minaya a good bit for those sorts of things. The decision on scouting below Low-A may be a good indicator of where this is headed.

FanGraph’s Lurker: Chances the Ray’s consolidate their middle infield prospect depth for JT Realmuto?

Kiley McDaniel: I could see that. TB certainly has the ammo to do it. ATL is another heavily rumored destination. I could see WSH, but would guess they are quieter this offseason than past years. Seems like JTR and his camp are trying to force a trade and I’d think the Archer deal is where things would start.

Kevin: Which is scarier to see, a real life actual murderous monster, or a team with no shot at the 2019 playoffs and in desperate need of a rebuild trying to compete one last time?

Kiley McDaniel: B for sure

Kiley McDaniel: I mean I could get away from the monster but kidding yourself about a window of contention? The walls are closing in just thinking about it

Thom: Will we be referring to FanGraphs as FANG-graphs for the duration of the holiday?

Trent: What makes this chat “spooky”?

Kiley McDaniel: I think we’ve answered your question Trent

Randy: If were Miami would you accept either/both or neither of these trade packages for Realmuto:  (a) K. Tucker, Cionel Perez and Max Stassi / (b) Bukauskus, C. Perez, Freudis Nova and Max Stassi

Kiley McDaniel: Can’t imagine HOU would offer Tucker but I think A would get you very close

chris: I’ve always wondered as a baseball fan – why should I care about ratings?  I’m watching baseball either way.

Kiley McDaniel: Not if you take Smoltz’s advice and go outside and kick tree stumps until the game is full of Mark Lemke’s

Luis Robert Stevenson: Do you have a guess for how many years/$$ Nate Eovaldi reaps in FA? Do you think Alex Cora gets a cut, considering how much he used Nate in the WS?

Kiley McDaniel: Had him penciled in for 3/45 before the WS, still think it’s somewhere around there

RDJR8: The most staggering thing about the Mets hire is they had a solution right in from of them with Bloom. Comes from a progressive organization, widely touted throughout the league, and the Mets go and think hiring an agent with zero experience in baseball ops….I just don’t get how an organization can come to this conclusion, even the Mets

Kiley McDaniel: This seems to be a common sentiment amongst FG-reading Mets fans. I would caution some patience since we obviously know way less about BVW than the Wilpons do. But yes, on the face, it seems like Bloom is much closer to what they need to become a perennial contender.

Just A Dude: Reported offer of Soroka+Riley for Realmuto seems a little steep, yeah? Maybe that was just at the deadline with 2.5 years of control but what would you peg as a fair value there between the teams? Or is that still close?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean if we’re using Glasnow+Meadows+Baz as a floor, Soroka+Riley seems pretty close to that range. Soroka’s injury complicates things a bit more.

Jim Bob Cooter: There has been very little new info out of Baltimore on the GM search. Does any top candidate actually want that job?

Kiley McDaniel: Heard a lot of different things there, so not really sure what to believe. Best info I have is Kim Ng and Ben Cherington are leading names and the Angelos family has said they will be more hands off. I guess we’ll see if that ends up being true.

Rod: Does the BvW hiring mean the Mets are more or less likely to sell off deGrom & Thor?

Kiley McDaniel: He said in the presser that they’re in win-now and win-future mode (or something like that). I assume that means there won’t be a tear down, which means those guys stay, at least for the winter.

Draftnik: How does scouting change in the next 5-10 years. Will hi-def video and rapsodo/scoutcast be everywhere (with technology continuing to come down in cost) so you can just sit back in Florida and watch 5 giant screens with data feeds 24/7?

Kiley McDaniel: I wondered when they announced Google Glass years ago if that meant a scouting director would sit at home and flip between games from the POV of his scouts or specially-placed cameras. We didn’t get flying cars either.

Jay: What direction do you see the Diamondbacks taking this winter? They hinted at listening to offers for some guys, but that sounds like eyewash since all teams (in theory) do this every winter. If they try to hold it together than attempt to dump Greinke/Goldschmidt, etc., in season, their returns are going to be significantly less. Then it’s definitely over for thie group.

Kiley McDaniel: I would guess cautiously try to stay competitive (avoid big contracts for guys 30+) for 2019 and if things aren’t going well, then all the 2-3 years or less of control guys (and maybe Greinke) are on the block

Aaron: FA predictions on Monday, but FA period starts Nov 3. You’ll miss out on some predictions.

Kiley McDaniel: We’ll have the projections locked in by then, so you’ll have to take our word when we tell you. Also don’t think a bunch of huge deals will be signed in the first few days. Look at how long it took for anything to happen last winter

Jacob Wohl: Do you think certain scouting grades will transition to objectivity in the future? For example, what’s holding teams back from eliminating the need for raw power grades and simply rating players based on average or max exit velo? I see the need for subjective game power, but if a guy hits a ball 116+ mph I struggle with how to give him sub 70 raw (*cough* Monte Harrison *cough*). Maybe I’m just misinterpreting what raw power is?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve had this conversation with more than a few people before, and even the specific one about when a couple crazy high exit velos replacing a raw power grade. The game is moving in this direction but I think the path to more than 1-2 teams writing most of their reports off of Trackman type stuff alone is still a long way off

Kiley McDaniel: That would definitely make my job harder, tho. Or maybe if there’s fewer scouts we’d all be better friends like the last scenes of a horror movie when almost everyone has died? This really is a spooky chat.

Brusdar Graterol: Has this last season changed my overall outlook at all?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, has moved up some. Shown more sustained control/command than in the past, stuff held up, showed some durability, etc. I think he went from 45 to 50 and has shown enough upside to move more.

M: You’re the new Mets GM! Do you: trade DeGrom? Not trade DeGrom.

Kiley McDaniel: Well the issue here is when I’m named GM, I’ve already been told/come to an understanding about how this will be handled. I would lean toward blowing it up since I don’t see a road to short-term contention with this core at this payroll level.

Kiley McDaniel: And it sounds like there needs to be some wider-ranging blowing up of processes and whatnot, so doing that in a rebuild environment at the MLB level would fit culturally. And I think Mets fans would kinda like to follow in the footsteps of Sixers fans if they knew at the end of the rainbow they would have a perennial contender. A big market rebuild is more palatable if there isn’t a long history of winning. SF would be a much tougher sell for this course of action.

Matzabal: Is it wrong of me to think the shift makes the game less entertaining?

Kiley McDaniel: Kinda depends on what you think is interesting. I think the average FG reader likes the game getting more efficient/strategic and the average non FG reader probably thinks groundouts suck while ground ball singles (and O’Doyle) rule

Kiley McDaniel: But there’s room to disagree with that characterization within those groups

Dub: I can only keep 3 of Luis Robert, Francisco Mejia, Wander Franco & Vlad Jr. Which one doesnt make the cut?

Kiley McDaniel: Robert or Mejia depending on whose time horizon/position fits your team less

James: Has any fading team trying to put it all together for “one last shot” ever actually won the World Series? Or come close?

Kiley McDaniel: There was a movie about a cop on his last case before retirement where he determined he was too old for this shit but I don’t remember a baseball game in that one so I’ll say no

Shameless Cardinals Homer: Do you ever see MLB going to a full-on NFL-style draft for both domestic and int’l?  I mean trading up/back in rounds, etc.

Kiley McDaniel: Man I hope so, but seems like the owners aren’t real interested in it

scottz: Re: the Twins hiring Baldelli – does a guy who was a prospect who never reached his peak have any more insight for current prospects than any other manager type, or is it all just dependent on how you communicate/relate?

Kiley McDaniel: I’d say being a scout and coach on a progressive MLB team are much more important context for Baldelli’s future as a manager than his playing days.

Boba Chett: Any names to watch on the J2 scene for 2019? I.e. Miguel Tejada Jr?

Kiley McDaniel: Dominican SS Robert Puason still sounds like the best guy

Davoink Showerhandel: You’re trapped in a zombie apocalypse and a zombie is running toward your group of survivors.  You need someone in your group to bean the zombie with a fastball to the dome and put him down.  You’ve only got one baseball and your group’s survival depends on someone nailing this throw.  Which prospect do you want in your group – you need a combination of velocity and accuracy to put down this zombie

Kiley McDaniel: Gotta factor in CLUTCHNESS and WILL TO KILL and that’s why I want Bob Gibson because he’ll kill the zombie, kill his zombie family, and then he’ll really go to work on him

Mayor Quimby: What’s a rough FV for Nico Hoerner?

Kiley McDaniel: In fact, we have an exact one for you here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/?type=&pos=&team=chc

Marshall: A lot of teams passed on Trout in the draft. Did the Angels’ experience with Salmon influence their willingness to make that pick?

Kiley McDaniel: I see what you did there

kevinthecomic: is this your last chat from florida or your last chat from anywhere?!?!?!?!?!?!

Kiley McDaniel: Next one will be in Georgia or Alabama

Malcom Nunez: Am I next year’s Wander Franco?

Kiley McDaniel: No! You’re probably a first baseman!

john cale: there goes Trevor Rosenthal to the nats

Kiley McDaniel: here’s an example. I have him as the 62nd best free agent, projected for 1 yr 7M guaranteed

Kiley McDaniel: no terms disclosed yet. May be 1 year with an option and lots of incentives, if I had to guess more specifically.

Roger: Do Minor League teams generally turn a profit?  Or are they subsidized by their Major League affiliates?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes and technically yes b/c the MLB team pays all the player/coach salaries. MILB baseball is basically a theme park where the attractions cost the team nothing and they just sell concessions/parking/apparel, etc.

Guest: Why is Milwaukee a bottom 3rd payroll team but Cleveland is a middle third even though Milwaukee is twice as big a city as Cleveland?

Kiley McDaniel: Ask the owner, man

kevinthecomic: Lethal Weapon and no, there was no baseball

Kiley McDaniel: i think i’m getting too old for this chat

Guest: Not sure Bob gibson is a prospect

Kiley McDaniel: Hey i’m trying to survive and also see peak Bob Gibson slingin at Nazi zombies (they’re nazis now, too) don’t get in the way of my happiness

Rays: Then, which is linked with puason?

Kiley McDaniel: Oakland

kevinthecomic: Rotoworld has Rosenthal as the 61st best free agent!!!!  This is a spooky chat………………….

Kiley McDaniel: great minds!

The Ghost of Dan’s Grandma: My grandson, Dan Szymborski refuses to give me, his dead grandmother’s ghost, a kiss.  Could you prove greater than he and do me this kindness?  Come give Dan’s grandmother a kiss, Kiley.

Kiley McDaniel: oh we’re there, huh?

Turgid: Relatively new development… but Potbelly sandwiches give me diarrhea

Matt Damon: MATT.  DAMON.

Kiley McDaniel: Thanks for coming out, it’s time to take Scout on a walk and then work on the 17 projects I have going at once