Kiley McDaniel’s Superlative 2015 MLB Draft Chat

5:04
Kiley McDaniel: I’m here! I’ll be in and out since this will be open most of the draft (all of it?) and I have to eat and pee and all that stuff.

5:05
Comment From The Ghost of Dayn Perry
*raggaeton horn* *raggaeton horn* *raggaeton horn* *raggaeton horn* *raggaeton horn*

5:07
Comment From Straw Man
Rangers #4 pick: most enigmatic in first 10? I see you have Trenton Clark there. Anything to add to your prospect report on him? Curious about his speed especially. Have seen between 55 and 70.

5:07
Kiley McDaniel: It’s 55 or 60. It’s a maybe CF that would play LF if he can’t stick there but more and more guys telling me they think he can.

5:07
Comment From Josh
Lots of chatter on Aiken, but what about Matuella? Where do you hear his name being called?

5:08
Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like his range starts at DET/22 and LA/24 but he should get money from the 20’s wherever he lands

5:08
Comment From Guesto
What’s the most shocking/surprising thing that could potentially happen tonight?

5:09
Kiley McDaniel: Trenton Clark seems to be the guy that was flying under the radar. Some teams around 10 thought he’d go behind them as of yesterday. He may go a lot higher than expected.

5:09
Comment From Chris B.
Do you really have to eat and pee? I’ve seen 24 and Jack Bauer doesn’t do any of that stuff

5:09
Kiley McDaniel: Yeah but I have to get my own schematics (alas no Chloe) so the double duty gives me an excuse.

5:09
Comment From James
Are there any other rumors on the Jays at 29 besides the ones you have mentioned? Could they pick an injured pitcher like Aiken if he falls there?

5:09
Kiley McDaniel: Did I mention Hillman there? The guys I didn’t name that they’ve been tied to are mostly prep arms.

5:09
Comment From I have a question Kiley
Is it true that the Cubs have 2 deals in place, one being Ian Happ? Who could they target in round 2?

5:11
Kiley McDaniel: There aren’t deals in place at picks like that, but there are understandings like “we’d take you if you got here and we know you’re cool with slot” or something more vague like that. No reason to have deal done at 9 unless its someone with a near 0% chance of going ahead of you.

5:11
Comment From JC
Andrew Benintendi, any concern over how his power will play

5:12
Kiley McDaniel: Eh kinda but it’s more just a general concern about the bat since he hasn’t been closely tracked for years like these other guys and he’s short. If we only saw these guys starting in February, I don’t think you would hear that at all.

5:12
Comment From Mike C
You in agreement with scouts who think Jay can transition to a starter?

5:12
Kiley McDaniel: I think he can, but this is all degrees and shades of gray. If he’s basically never done it before, it would be foolish to say 100% or 0%. The team that takes Jay top 10 is factoring in dominating reliever as a reasonable outcome.

5:13
Comment From Eric
Hi Kiley, do you think there is any way that HS LHP Kolby Allard slips down to the Dodgers at 24? Who are names you think may end up going to the Dodgers at 24? Thanks!

5:14
Kiley McDaniel: He could go as high as 10-15 but probably goes more 17-25, so I could see it. Very hard to predict where injured guys go because you can’t see scouts at their games for the last few months and even the teams don’t know if they can take the guy until team doctor speaks up, which, for most teams, happened over the weekend. And with no chatter, no one wants to tip their hand, so no one talks.

5:14
Comment From Conor
Does Sands make it to the Mets at 53?

5:14
Kiley McDaniel: That’s about the middle of his range, so yes good shot.

5:14
Comment From Matt
Fantasy Dynasty League – taking into consideration proximity to the majors, upside, bust potential, etc, who would be your top couple of selections?

5:15
Kiley McDaniel: I’d lean bats, so top 5-6 would just be the top bats on my actual board

5:15
Comment From RYAN
I want the dbacks to snag Swanson but god i have a haunting feeling they are going to go with the pitching again

5:15
Kiley McDaniel: That’s not a question

5:16
Comment From Phillies113
How badly are the Phillies gonna screw this up? You can tell me, I can take it.

5:16
Kiley McDaniel: Prepare for them to not even turn in a pick and then you’ll be happy no matter what

5:16
Comment From Ryan
If Arizona is looking to save money with the first pick, who are some players they’re targeting with their next pick at 43?

5:17
Kiley McDaniel: The players they like have to get past the Astros at 37 (including Daz), so even the tailor made type of guy isn’t super likely to get there. Odds are it’ll be a 15-25 type value that slides into mid to late 20’s and they offer 20th overall money…something like that.

5:17
Comment From John
Are the Mets leaning towards prep arms at 53?

5:17
Kiley McDaniel: Heard them mentioned with all classes of player, so don’t think it’ll be easy to predict

5:17
Comment From Mark
What about Thomas Eshelman and his lack of stuff? Do you think he could gain some velo in the future?

5:18
Kiley McDaniel: was 91-93 t94 in one late outing. can’t see him ever throwing harder than that. usually is 89-91 t92

5:19
Comment From Matt
Position aside, who are the best couple of hitters in the draft?

5:18
Comment From Matt

5:19
Comment From RP
Some mocks today have Tucker falling to 10. Say both he and Stephenson get there, who do the Phillies go with?

5:19
Kiley McDaniel: I think Tucker, but hard Tucker getting past 4, 5, 6, 7 and 9

5:19
Comment From Chris B.
How much does the Bickford positive test impact his stock, if at all?

5:21
Kiley McDaniel: It doesn’t help the questions about his personality–just generally laid back, nothing negative on it’s own–but the issue that derailed his deal with the Jays was apparently an arm issue and some teams are pausing on the medical. Also doesn’t help that he faced poor competition this year, was in the doghouse in Fullerton before leaving, etc. Just a lot of little stuff adding up.

5:23
Kiley McDaniel: But some of the same stuff was said about Clay Buchholz out of a JC and he worked out pretty well compared to who was drafted around him. And medical questions often are false positives, so who knows.

5:24
Kiley McDaniel: I will say that I’ve had conversations with lots of scouts over the past few years and, while there isn’t data, we’re all pretty sure that the track record of pitchers that get taken off more than a couple draft boards (for particularly bad medicals) have a very bad track record.

I’ve heard medical questions that could be to this level on 4-5 guys, but I’m not sure how many are off more than a couple boards altogether. Kyle Freeland was in that area last year, Ryne Stanek was there a few years ago and both haven’t been great in pro ball.

5:24
Kiley McDaniel: Barret Loux was another one, etc.

5:24
Comment From Goo
If Allard is available to the Dodgers at 24, should they take him?

5:25
Kiley McDaniel: I think they should. Him and Aiken are similar gambles for me at this point and clearly better options from what I’ve heard of the medical than Bickford, Kirby or Matuella.

5:25
Comment From Josh Naylor
Could the Red Sox take me at 7?

5:27
Kiley McDaniel: I can’t see that happening because they’d be saving a lot of money for later picks and they pick so late there’s no way to know who gets there. You’d be trading the 7th overall pick for like 3 late 1st rounders effectively (bonus-wise) but 80-100 guys are off the board before you can make those other picks. They’d have to love multiple guys that they think get to their later picks to do that.

5:27
Comment From Phil
What will the Brewers do today? Safe picks or high risk.upside players? New scouting director makes things difficult but with the picks they have it seems like they could do a lot, maybe an overslot with someone?

5:28
Kiley McDaniel: I’ve joked a lot the last few weeks that every fan wants their team to go overslot on every pick and take the highest-ranked player on the media lists at every pick and to at least triple their int’l bonus pool every year. Overslot is good when the player is clearly better but you can’t force it. Higher bonus doesn’t equal good every time.

MIL could take Allard or Aiken and I heard a late Nolan Watson rumor, but I’ve heard them mostly with college pitching

5:29
Comment From Joe
If Stephenson is there at 14 and Braves draft someone else, is there any way he makes it to 28? Could he slide the way that Reid-Foley did because other teams behind Atlanta didn’t prepare for him to be there.

5:30
Kiley McDaniel: Reid-Foley was because of his arm action. Teams disliked that more than people thought–SRF got slot where he landed in the 2nd round. There would have to be lots of weird stuff in the top 10 for Stephenson to get to 14 because 10-13 all like him and I think he’s at the top of a few of their lists. Randolph is the guy that they could pass on at 14 and get at 28 if KC passes at 21.

5:30
Comment From Brandon
Do the Yankees take a bat at 16? A lot of people are saying they take a college arm but I don’t see it.

5:30
Kiley McDaniel: I’ve heard both things but I think it’ll be a value play based on who is there and a predetermined class of player

5:31
Comment From Nick
Im hearing the Twins are going to pop Daz if the Astro’s risk him getting to #37. Anyone else know about this?

5:33
Kiley McDaniel: I would either project Daz at 37, 9, 7, 6 or 5. MIN was told they can’t afford him and there’s a real chance they pop him and make him turn down $3.9M. I’d say 6 and 37 are Daz’s two most likely landing spots.

5:34
Kiley McDaniel: I put Tate there because that will be low stress, give them certainty about the price for their other picks and, for me, a better prospect. if the board falls a certain way, Daz could be their guy.

5:34
Comment From Mark
I’d like to see Buehler at 4 just because Walker Texas Rangers will happen

5:34
Comment From Steve
I want Whitley for the Yankees first pick. What are the odds of that?

5:34
Kiley McDaniel: Odds of him being there are like 25% maybe. 12 and 13 are on him, 14 is a maybe.

5:34
Comment From Jim
Are Chandler Day, Bryan Hudson, and Triston McKenzie options for the Mets at 53?

5:35
Kiley McDaniel: Sure, but lots of people are potential options. You could just quote my 35-60 rankings and technically be right.

5:35
Comment From Carson Cistuli
Scimitar to your jugular, which late round scrub will I be foaming over incessantly next year in my regular useless posts?

5:35
Kiley McDaniel: The one that sucks

5:35
Comment From Carson Cistulli
How cool am I on a 20-80 scale?

5:36
Kiley McDaniel: I’m starting to think this is actually Carson

5:36
Comment From Justin
Are the Braves going to try and spin deals below slot with players and really stretch their budget, or will they just take BPA with the picks tonight and build a solid portfolio? Any names or rumors for their picks?

5:38
Kiley McDaniel: Between today’s mock: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

And the long one: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

I mention all the guys I’ve heard them with. Sounds like a couple overslot and a couple under. West Alabama senior RHP Tanner Rainey and Tennessee prep 3B Trey Cabbage are common names for below slot, Randolph over.

5:38
Comment From Corry
I’m sure you or someone else has written about this, but I must have missed it. Can you explain why Daz Cameron could go top 10, or slip all the way to 37? Whats going on with him?

5:41
Kiley McDaniel: He wasnts $4-5M and once you get past the top 10 or so picks, it’s very difficult to give that kind of bonus without it causing you to go underslot for multiple picks after and not even being sure he’ll take the $4.5M (for example) that you come up with. So, if there’s enough no-fuss slot options with comparable talent for all the top 10-12 slots where they could take Daz (and it sounds like there are), then all the teams with only one pick in the top 40 can’t (or don’t want to, based on talent) put their whole draft into him. When teams with big pools have their later picks (like HOU at 37, ARZ at 43) is where the slide would end and, if those teams shave a couple million off early picks (paritcularly if HOU shaves on both of their picks), then they can offer $4M therea nd take a couple $1M kids after the 10th round if Daz changes his tune and they lose a smaller (roughly $1.5M slot) instead of a bigger one from a pick in the teens.

5:43
Kiley McDaniel: It’s basically all about leverage (Daz’s dad is rich and he can go to JC/College and have the same leverage next year and his adviser has a history of turning down big money if he deems it not good enough, like with Appel) and risk (losing your first pick and possible then losing a later pick as a result of the pool implications is an easy way to get on the bad side of ownership).

5:43
Comment From Straw Man
Lots of fans discussing pulling weird things in this draft. Like the possibility of a top-10 or top-5 selection taking Justin Hooper who they know won’t sign then getting draft compensation next year. Thoughts on the probability of that happening?

5:44
Kiley McDaniel: Will never happen. Too much risk aversion to do a transparent punt and few player are truly unsignable. This strategy takes them off the board completely, which is unfair to them and could cause a PR/legal issue if its proven the team had zero intention of signing him. Also, Hooper has an, ahem, aggressive adviser, so that tweet didn’t surprise anyone. Kids do that every year and sign if the money is right.

5:45
Comment From Tim
Even though Hooper tweeted he’s going to UCLA you still have him going to the Giants, what happens with him?

5:45
Kiley McDaniel: Either 18, somewhere in one of the comp picks for overslot or slides a long way and likely doesn’t sign.

5:45
Comment From Jared
Dansby Swanson just homered off Tyler Jay. This is not a question.

5:45
Comment From Preston
Is there any substance to the Trout/Whitley comp? Or is it just premium athlete from cold weather state?

5:46
Kiley McDaniel: Yeah that’s about it. It’s how NE scouts get their boss’s attention because the GM already asked him a few years back why he didn’t like Trout.

5:46
Comment From Eric
Have you heard the White Sox on anybody besides college arms? There has been some talk among by the beat writers here that Stephenson is a legitimate possibility for the pick.

5:48
Kiley McDaniel: Fulmer then Jay and it’s like 90% that one of them is there. Decent chance they both get there. I don’t know who their 3rd option is, but I’d guess another college pitcher.

5:48
Comment From CatGuy
Who are some of the guys who have a legitimate shot at the big leagues this year? Any position players?

5:48
Kiley McDaniel: No on bats, but Jay, Fulmer and Ferrell could all rush as relievers this year. They’re all 40 PV on the sortable draft board. Lots of questions can be answered by looking at that! http://www.fangraphs.com/sc…

5:49
Comment From Jeff Gross
What’s the probability that the Cubs sign Trenton Clark, giving them a possible Addison & Clark duo?

5:49
Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think that’s the reason, but I’m told the Cubs take him if he’s there.

5:49
Comment From john
Any potential draft prospects that are and have been under the radar from Washington?

5:50
Kiley McDaniel: I don’t know how you define the radar but here’s the good ones http://www.fangraphs.com/sc…

5:52
Kiley McDaniel: My randomizer on the music library has pulled up three straight ASAP Rocky tracks. Not a bad draft vibe.

5:52
Comment From Joe
I’ve read a lot of draft content, most of which seems to be regurgitated (not by you, but by others), so I don’t have any questions on players right now. But I was wondering what YOUR favorite part of draft day is? Starting fresh for 2016?

5:53
Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think I enjoy any one part especially. Maybe tweeting jokes about the telecast? Not a relief or joy of Christmas for me. Like getting back the scores for a test you think you got an A on. Could be crushed, but likely just looking over the results, learning a few things then moving on to the next one.

5:54
Kiley McDaniel: I’m kinda even keel for stuff like this. You kinda have to be for long grind type things

5:58
Comment From Bill
What are some things you have heard about the 2nd round? Any interesting things worth saying or just going to wait and see?

5:59
Kiley McDaniel: Check those two links above to the mocks. Lots of notes there. We know tendencies and some players that teams like but nowhere close to the info from the first round and that’s already a guessing game.

5:59
Kiley McDaniel: If your question is about the best prospects from a certain state or school, that’s why the draft board is sortable. Go play with it! http://www.fangraphs.com/sc…

5:59
Comment From CatGuy
What position does Josh Naylor end up playing? Is Demi Orimoloye a Day 1 guy?

6:00
Kiley McDaniel: 1B only and has never been anything else. Decent arm, but not enough wheels to play OF. Demi could be, wouldn’t shock me if he went 3rd round, though.

6:00
Comment From Preston
Gut reaction, is Chris Betts a C long term, and could he play any other non-1b position?

6:00
Kiley McDaniel: Yes, not really

6:01
Comment From Jake H
Any chance the Yankees go Aiken @ 16 if he is there and just say lets go upside?

6:01
Kiley McDaniel: There is a 0% chance

6:01
Comment From Guest
Do people actually read what you write?????

6:01
Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think so

6:01
Comment From Sam
What’s an ETA on Brendan Rodgers? Is he a top-30 MLB prospect?

6:03
Kiley McDaniel: These things are also on teh sortable draft board. ETA is listed and the FV maps to the top 200 (which is here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…)

Swanson and Rodgers fall into the 29-78 tier and they’re the only ones. I’d guess Swanson would be around the top of that tier right now, Rodgers around the middle.

6:03
Comment From Mike P.
Is there anyone with a…fun…name who could go at pick 420? You know you want to find someone now…

6:03
Kiley McDaniel: Skye Bolt?

6:03
Comment From Joe
What round do you see antonio santillian going?

6:03
Comment From Pale Hose
Kiley – can you tell us who you think is going where? Oh wait…

6:04
Kiley McDaniel: There’s a range projected for players to go and I also rank them based on how good I think they are. http://www.fangraphs.com/sc…

6:04
Kiley McDaniel: Seriously, the Sortable Draft Board could just be automated to answer half the questions in the chat. It’s good, I promise!

6:05
Comment From David
If both Jay and Tate are available at 6 for MN, who do you take?

6:05
Kiley McDaniel: I have rankings that exist only to answer this question and others like it. I swear this isn’t a trick. http://www.fangraphs.com/sc…

6:06
Comment From Jake
What do you see from the Dodgers tonight? 24, 35, etc? Thanks! Can’t wait for the night to begin

6:06
Kiley McDaniel: I think you guys are trolling me

6:06
Comment From Andrew
Do you know if teams have seen Aiken’s medicals?

6:07
Kiley McDaniel: I wrote about that too http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

The teams that are considering taking him have seen them and they’re generally better than expected but it’s more complicated than a normal TJ, so there’s some extra risk.

6:07
Comment From Andrew
Any word on D2 1st baseman Justin Garcia?

6:07
Kiley McDaniel: Tweeted about him about a month back. Bonkers numbers, 8th-12th round type.

6:08
Comment From Ryan
Lets say this year was an international draft and the July 2 class was eligible to be picked today, where would some of the bigger names go? Would Guerrero and Ortiz be 1st round picks?

6:09
Kiley McDaniel: This made my head hurt. There’s a whole layer of high level scouts seeing these guys in games that never happened, so hard to say with any certainty. I would guess top 30-40 picks for the top couple guys, but not top 10.

6:10
Comment From Brock
What’s the argument for the Astros taking Bregman over Rodgers At 2? Any sIgnificant reason because he’s seemed like a lock for top 2 for ages

6:10
Kiley McDaniel: Closer to the big leagues, less risk on the bat and would be cheaper.

6:10
Comment From Adam
If Cameron starts falling, do Braves really not pull the trigger?

6:11
Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think they take him at 14 or 28

6:12
Kiley McDaniel: For those asking for comparables, I don’t really do that if it doesn’t make sense, but you can take the tools from the sortable draft board and find someone with similar grades on the top 200 for an MILB guy similar.

6:12
Comment From Guesto
Feels inevitable that the Yankees draft Mariano Rivera III. Your values on the sortable draft board shows reliever stuff, not much room for potential growth. Anything else to get excited about with Rivera?

6:12
Kiley McDaniel: Chance to be 7th inning guy, chance for a little more but he’s small so I wouldn’t get too excited.

6:12
Comment From marc
biggest question mark around Happ is ______?

6:13
Kiley McDaniel: Probably a RF and may not be a plus tool. Also recovering from hernia surgery this year, so some scouts didn’t love the look they got. That said, he’s above average at almost everything and might play 2B and might have a 60 bat. He’ll go 5-11.

6:13
Comment From Thai
I know Tristan Beck is hard commitment to Stanford but I’ve heard that his upside potential is #1 overall pick in future draft. Do you agree with that assessment?

6:14
Kiley McDaniel: That’s technically everyone’s upside at some level so I can’t say no and he is projectable and talented, so possible but that’s said about a lot of HS guys. I think he goes tonight and signs.

6:14
Comment From North Side Irish
where does Happ play? Dirt or grass?

6:14
Kiley McDaniel: If the Jays take him, all the non pitcher and catcher positions play on the grass right?

6:15
Kiley McDaniel: Or turf, so technically neither I guess

6:15
Comment From Ian
Have you heard anything suggesting that agents are wary of dealing with Houston because of the Aiken thing last year?

6:15
Kiley McDaniel: Nope. Even the same agency has no problem working with Houston again.

6:16
Comment From mtsw
Feel like I often see teams linked to guys who play nearby. Is this more because proximity gives a better opportunity for decision makers to see them play repeatedly or do teams actually think there’s a marketing/whatever value to having “hometown players?”

6:16
Kiley McDaniel: They typically find out about the players earlier and can use the kid being a fan to get in better with the family, have him on scout teams, etc. Typically an advantage. Also, the high level scouts/execs have easier time seeing him and creating momentum internally to take the kid.

6:16
Comment From Preston
You said in your Mock that Bickford will slip to the 30-40s because of the positive test. If you were a team where would you rank him, how much would it effect his ranking?

6:17
Kiley McDaniel: It’s not because of the test, it’s a bunch of stuff. Test alone may not change anything. Medical is much bigger issue.

6:17
Comment From Jake H
Do you think the draft is funnier now that Twitter is a big deal?

6:18
Kiley McDaniel: The draft is funnier now that I’m a big deal. My twitter smells of rich mahogany.

6:21
Comment From Lil Cub
The Cubs 6th Round pick last year, Dylan Cease, has been throwing heat in extended spring training. What are your thoughts on him?

6:22
Kiley McDaniel: He’s always thrown hard, so that’s not surprising. I wrote him up this offseason http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

6:22
Comment From Guesto
I’ve heard Hayes is climbing draft boards. Could he be a surprise Top 10?

6:23
6:23
Comment From Thomas
Looking at that brilliant sortable draft board of yours, and was wondering, what is Yoan Moncada’s FV? I know it isn’t (directly) a draft question, don’t shoot me.

6:23
Kiley McDaniel: 65

6:23
Kiley McDaniel: (gunshot noise)

6:23
Kiley McDaniel: But Moncada is still volatile as he’s just playing games now. We have a pretty good sense of what Swanson can do.

6:24
Comment From Ryan
Realistic chance Bickford is chosen by the Jays again?

6:24
Kiley McDaniel: 0%

6:24
Comment From Randy
If Astros pass on Bregman at #2 seems like he would fall to #5 or #7 and Tucker could fall to #10. So over/under $9M in total bonus money for Bregman at 2 and Tucker at 5 for the Astros?

6:26
Kiley McDaniel: Bregman would likely go 4th or 5th but definitely 6th if he doesn’t go 2nd. Almost impossible to see BOS/7 get a crack at him. $8-9M is my guess

6:26
Comment From Abe
Which pitcher’s career will the Brewers ruin tonight?

6:26
Kiley McDaniel: Fun question!

6:26
Comment From Ajay
Superlative? Who has the best smile in the draft?

6:26
Kiley McDaniel: You!

6:26
Comment From Frank C
Do you think Garrett Whitley can be a 30 homerun guy?

6:26
Kiley McDaniel: No

6:26
Comment From Cicero
I know I haven’t heard them linked but could you make a decent argument for Tucker at #3 to the Rockies?

6:27
Kiley McDaniel: I think he’s the 4th best player, so I can make a case but that won’t make it happen

6:27
Comment From Pinstripe Wizard
What position does Mikey White profile best at?

6:27
Kiley McDaniel: SS. Isn’t pretty but it works

6:27
Comment From Eric
Kiley, in what order do you think the White Sox rank Tate, Fullmer, and Jay?

6:27
Kiley McDaniel: Fulmer, Jay, Tate. Also the order I have them.

6:29
Kiley McDaniel: Sortable Draft Board just got a last update, including position in today’s mock http://www.fangraphs.com/sc…

6:32
Comment From Josh
Do you see the Cards taking a SS at 23 (Newman) or a SP like Funkhouser? Thanks.

6:33
Kiley McDaniel: Heard both. Think they’d take Newman if he gets there, but lots of unsettled college pitching and I think they like Allard too, so hard to narrow it down.

6:33
Comment From Mike C
Kirby’s medical is scarier than Aiken’s?

6:34
Kiley McDaniel: No, but teams were told Kirby was minor strain and more than a few think it’s more than that. We knew Aiken was serious.

6:34
Comment From Danny
Have you heard about teams taking Matuella off their boards?

6:34
Kiley McDaniel: No, but some have said he doesn’t fit for them, like a team in the 20’s has him in the 30’s on their board.

6:35
Comment From Philip
You seem bullish on Kyle tucker with that 75% projection

6:35
Kiley McDaniel: To be fair, it’s because he’s really good

6:36
Kiley McDaniel: I wrote it in other places, but I should point out that these rankings are 100% my evaluation of the players. In cases like Tucker where he’s in my region, I’ve seen him enough to have a strong opinion. For players on the west coast, I’ve seen them but still check with scouts to see what’s changed (or what I’d see if I could be at every game).

6:37
Kiley McDaniel: So, I don’t mind going higher on a guy than other people are when I know I like him that much. Plus a bunch of scouts are at least as high as me, so I’m not on an island.

6:37
Comment From Randy
What do you think the proper time horizon is to judge draft picks?

6:38
Comment From Randy

Only during Armageddon, when Steven Tyler is singing that song from a rig like this one

6:39
Comment From Pinstripe Wizard
Outside of Cameron, who has the most signability questions?

6:39
Kiley McDaniel: Cornelius Randolph is a tough one to peg. Probably goes 10, 14, 21 or 28.

6:39
Comment From Wrenzie
With Hooper saying that he’ll honor school, is there a chance the Giants can still pick him at 18?

6:40
Kiley McDaniel: No one is taking him before 18

6:40
Comment From Pinstripe Wizard
Cashman apparently came out and said they were taking best available talent FWIW>

6:40
Kiley McDaniel: What else did you think he would say?

6:41
Comment From Wrenzie
Is there a buzz between the Giants and Joe McCarthy?

6:41
Kiley McDaniel: Well Joe didn’t text them back but he did touch their arm during dinner so that’s something maybe he likes them or even like likes them

6:42
Comment From CatGuy
Not draft related, but the Cubs are supposed to make a major announcement tonight and it sounds like it involves the Phillies (https://twitter.com/DGoss_7…). The logical answer would be Hamels to Cubs. if so, who do you think goes the other way?

6:42
Kiley McDaniel: Some random guy with 400 followers has a super specific scoop? I’m a little dubious.

6:45
Comment From Sugar Ray
Sortable draft board is your ranking, right?

6:45
Kiley McDaniel: Yes

6:45
Comment From john
where would devers go if he were eligible to be drafted and not in the red sox’s system? could we get a piece covering where some of the younger guys would fall if they hadn’t been international players?

6:45
Kiley McDaniel: Thats what FV is for, comparing players from different markets

6:45
Comment From Shyam
Any chance the Braves take Aiken given their apparent affinity for pitchers that have TJ?

6:46
Kiley McDaniel: No team has an affinity to pitchers with TJ. They’re tainted. No one likes that. It isn’t a market inefficiency or a strategy.

6:46
Comment From mtsw
If you got to meet Nasim Taleb in person do you think you could talk him into an appreciation of your profession (and baseball more generally) or do you suspect he’d snootily dismiss you as unserious?

6:47
Kiley McDaniel: Good question. Not sure what he’s like in social situations like that. Case to be made for either outcome.

6:47
Comment From Marcus A.
Were you in the draft room when you worked in baseball? Or were you a part of the information gathering process, but not necessarily the final decision?

6:47
Kiley McDaniel: In the room for the last week or two at two places, in and out for the third one. Never involved in the process of picking the guy. That’s for like the 4 top amateur scouts and that’s about it.

6:48
Comment From Marcus A.
Do teams generally have a list of a few guys for each of the later rounds or do they really rank nearly every player? Seems impossible to have an opinion on EVERYONE, so what do they do if a guy they thought would go 3rd round or so, falls to them in the 6th? Just ask a regional scout?

6:48
Kiley McDaniel: Talked about this in depth on the last podcast. They rank every player they would consider drafting, which is usually over 500 and there’s always a dozen or so leftover at the end.

6:50
Kiley McDaniel: Alright taking a breather to get my snacks in order and charge my phone

6:50
Comment From Me
Could you conceivably see a team drafting someone?

6:50
Kiley McDaniel: Ponder this question while I’m gone

6:51
Kiley McDaniel: And also don’t ponder this because it’s creepy

6:51
Comment From mtsw
Hypothetical: You have a 19 year old daughter. Which player likely to be drafted in the first round would you be most comfortable with her dating?

7:05
Kiley McDaniel: Ok I’m back now

7:05
Comment From Will
Kiley, in your podcast with Jim Callis, were you delibarately doing an impression of Carson at the start, or is he just rubbing off on you?

7:06
Kiley McDaniel: If I ever sounded that much like Carson by accident, I would need to go on a Dave Chappelle level vacation

7:06
Comment From Dan
What do owners think of drafts? DO they look at a draft and say “well BA/MLB had this ranked as ___” or do they, for the most part, trust in their FO and understand that no one will know for five years?

7:06
Kiley McDaniel: This question made me laugh on a few different levels. Spend millions on a scouting staff to prepare for the draft and then quote some journalist over your whole staff LOL

7:06
Comment From S
Is there every a good time to draft for need in the first round?

7:07
Kiley McDaniel: No!

7:07
Comment From Grandpaboy
If you’re advising a high school SP like Nikorak, do you put it out there that your price is “X” regardless of where your client is taken, or do you wait to see where he’s drafted and work from that slot value?

7:07
Kiley McDaniel: Depends on what the family wants to do and their appetite for risk of going to school

7:07
Comment From CatGuy
Perhaps before you posted it, some of us were unaware that such a board existed!

7:07
Comment From David
MLB fixed the Trea Turner conundrum, but how long until they allow trading draft picks outright? Is that in the next CBA?

7:08
Kiley McDaniel: I think so, but no definite

7:08
Comment From Miley KcDaniel
Where would you peg Carson Fulmer’s hit tool? Raw power? Don’t give me game.

7:08
Kiley McDaniel: I’ve seen him take BP. 45 raw in HS, could be a tick better with focus, I think. He’s a good athlete. 45-50 runner.

7:10
Comment From jyo
You guys think the Yanks will take Ian Happ?

7:10
Kiley McDaniel: He won’t get there

7:11
Comment From Harold Reynolds
They say don’t go HS catcher with the first pick, but I always say, all those Latin guys, those Latin catchers, they didn’t go to college. What say you Kiley?

7:12
Comment From Guest
Anything from the D3 ranks over the next few days?

7:13
Kiley McDaniel: Lots of D2 guys. Can’ recall if there’s a D3 guy in the top few rounds.

7:13
Kiley McDaniel: I got one right!

7:17
Kiley McDaniel: There’s at least three guys with a decent chance of going here

7:17
Comment From John
Could Tanner Rainey make it to the 4th round?

7:18
Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like 2nd-3rd, but more 3rd-4th talent. Senior sign to save cap money moves him up

7:18
Comment From The Dude
The Astros are going Aiken, right?

7:20
Kiley McDaniel: I have two picks correct and I feel nothing. The draft has worn me down

7:20
Comment From Cole
So, Alex Bregman, 2B?

7:21
Kiley McDaniel: No. He’s a SS for me. I think it’s kinda lazy to just say 2B because he doesn’t look like Rey Ordonez physically. He makes plays. Jhonny Peralta makes plays too. Doesn’t have to look one way.

7:22
Comment From Rhayex
You’re now two for two. I’m going to assume that the rest of your picks are correct as well now.

7:22
Kiley McDaniel: Oh no, high expectations are my greatest fear

7:22
Comment From Isaac S.
My friends and I have started a baseball podcast, and we are trying to get interviews. Any suggestions on how to contact players?

7:22
Kiley McDaniel: Agents

7:22
Comment From Skore
Who is the biggest upside, biggest risk pitcher in the class?

7:23
Kiley McDaniel: There are risk grades on the draft board right here http://www.fangraphs.com/sc…

7:23
Kiley McDaniel: And for upside, just add up the best three future pitch grades, combine with height and you’re basically there

7:23
Comment From David
Is there a type of player the Nats are targeting at 58?

7:24
Kiley McDaniel: No way for them to know what will be there.

7:24
Comment From Bob
Is it more work this time of year to work for Fangraphs or a team?

7:25
Kiley McDaniel: Team, definitely. I can set my schedule but for teams they own you around the clock, particularly in busy times like the draft and trade deadline

7:25
Comment From Matt
Where do you think Matuella will end up?

7:25
Kiley McDaniel: Mid to late 20s

7:25
Comment From Neil
Just wanted to say I think you a crushing it so far at Fangraphs.

7:25
Kiley McDaniel: I’ve always been a person of interest, so it was just a matter of time

7:26
Comment From Eric F
Any chance the Red Sox defy thinking and get Fulmer? I know Cherington has scouted him a lot, and I would love to see them pick him.

7:26
Kiley McDaniel: That wouldn’t be defying thinking, him and Benintendi are the two most likely picks for them.

7:27
Comment From The Bronx Empire
Not that it matters but just curious…did Aiken sign the form that permits HOU to redraft him? Have you heard?

7:28
Kiley McDaniel: Didn’t ask, but I can’t see how he would’ve. Even if he did, there’s no way Houston would take him again.

7:28
Comment From Harold Reynolds
Forget this baseball nonsense, what grade do you give Dansby Swanson’s basketball game? You can use your grade as a benchmark

7:28
Kiley McDaniel: (frantically adds another column to the sortable draft board)

7:29
Comment From Dick Head
Have you heard anything about what range/to who New England prep cf Ryan McKenna might go?

7:30
Comment From Corry
If you zoomed in on that live clip of Rockies draft room, you could see their entire draft board

7:30
Kiley McDaniel: He’s on the sortable draft board. I’d guess 4th-5th round money, could go anywhere tho

7:31
Kiley McDaniel: They intentionally set up cameras to not show the draft board that matters. I just rewound it and it looks like the signability/medical/20th round+/positional boards and it’s so fuzzy there’s no way to make out a name. Could also just be like results of the mental test all on one board, etc. That would never happen with a stationary camera.

7:33
Kiley McDaniel: So my streak is over, I had Trenton Clark going 4th, but had Tate there in a couple other mocks. He was seen as a target for awhile, so I get points for being close, if we do that.

7:34
Kiley McDaniel: To be fair, I think the grading of mock drafts is kinda dumb, but I get that it’s going to happen.

7:36
Comment From The Dude
The Rockies take Rogers so they can trade Tulo, right?

7:36
Kiley McDaniel: I hope you’re joking

7:36
Comment From Pat
Is Dansby the next Jeter? Re2pect

7:36
Kiley McDaniel: I know you’re serious because that’s spot on

7:36
Comment From John
Could Harrison Bader make it to the Mets in the third?

7:37
Kiley McDaniel: Definitely could, 2nd-3rd fit

7:37
Comment From Rhayex
You gave a player a 1 on risk? I (vaguely) remember reading that you almost never give 1’s out.

7:38
Kiley McDaniel: Yeah very rare but Eshelman has been this good for like 2 years and is low effort with tons of command

7:39
Kiley McDaniel: Houston goes best available and I get back on track with Kyle Tucker. Huge fan of him.

7:40
Comment From Nate
Think the Astros screwed up by taking Bregman over Rodgers? B/c it kinda feels like we did

7:40
Kiley McDaniel: They took my #3 player instead of my #2. It’s not a screwup, it’s a very slight disagreement.

7:41
Comment From JWarmold
Do you remember what kind of talent Joc Pederson was coming out of HS? Why did he slide to the 11th round? And why did he end up signing?

7:44
Kiley McDaniel: Was a non-projectable average tools type with some feel that lots of teams weren’t really on, so he was a later round overpay guy. That happens sometimes, but very rarely

7:49
Kiley McDaniel: The Daz freefall is on. I think it’ll go Benintendi-Fulmer-Clark at 7-8-9, Stephenson at 10

7:49
Kiley McDaniel: If Daz doesn’t slide in there somewhere, and I don’t think he does, then his next most likely spot in 37.

7:50
Kiley McDaniel: Another teams could step in, but if that happens, it would make the guy who just called mock drafts dumb point to his mock draft which is kinda fitting

7:50
Comment From Low Floor, Lower Upside
Any draft related creative uses of Periscope this year? Seems like so much potential for these type of events.

7:50
Kiley McDaniel: I know Keith used it some and I talked about it with some FG staff, then found out my iPhone wasn’t new enough to use the app. New phone on the way then Persicoping with me soon after

7:51
Comment From Guest
Random and not part of the draft, but what is the best way to contact you? Would love to ask you a few questions about your time in baseball. (Aspiring baseball ops college student)

7:51
Kiley McDaniel: kiley dot mcdaniel at gmail. No promises about quick responses, but I try.

7:51
Comment From Real Madrid winger Gareth Bale
from a scouting perspective, how would you explain Mark Buehrle’s success? 80 command?

7:51
Kiley McDaniel: Yep

7:52
Comment From Cole
Tulo…and stuff….yeah…30 texts.

7:52
Comment From Mitchell
Tucker swing looks weird to me. Anything that he will need to change?

7:53
Kiley McDaniel: Nope. That’s his selling point. You want it to look like that.

7:53
Comment From Big Jgke
love that mlb’s video of Tate is through a fence. Who took it, you?

7:53
Kiley McDaniel: I have some from through a netting. It’s classier.

7:53
Comment From Thomas
Rodgers a top-50 prospect in COL?

7:53
Kiley McDaniel: If not, then close.

7:53
Comment From Ron
Why did Astros pick Bregman instead of Rodgers? Isn’t Rodgers better offensively?

7:54
Kiley McDaniel: More upside, farther away, more risk.

7:54
Comment From John
Do you think one of the top 3 college arms drop to the Cubs?

7:54
Kiley McDaniel: Not now. Fulmer will go to White Sox. Clark to Cubs is my guess.

7:54
Comment From Big Jgke
Holy crap, is Gammons bringing out a Ted Williams comp for Tucker?

7:55
Kiley McDaniel: The swing does look like him. People just take it to mean overall comp when you bring up his name. Scouts have brought up Griffey too. It’s a really easy, handsy swing.

7:55
Comment From Robert
You think Tucker will have plus game power once he adds some bulk?

7:55
Kiley McDaniel: Yes. Peep the future game power grade here. That’s what you’re looking for http://www.fangraphs.com/sc…

7:55
Comment From matt
If Cameron falls to 14, do the Braves draft him and hope it works out?

7:55
Comment From Skore
Any chance that Stephenson falls all the way to the 16-20 range?

7:56
Comment From Patrick
Daz seems like a good fit for the Braves at 14, no?

7:56
Kiley McDaniel: No, No and No

7:56
Comment From The Dude
If 80 command means you get Mark Buehrle, isn’t Eshelman being severely underrated? I mean if you knew you had a Buehrle in this draft, you’d jump all over that.

7:56
Kiley McDaniel: You don’t know if it’s 55 command or 80 command until he gets to the big leagues. Only big league hitters can help you figure that out.

7:57
Comment From Mike
What does draft eligible sophomore mean in baseball? red shirt first year?

7:57
Kiley McDaniel: Redshirt or turns 21 within 45 days of the draft

7:57
Comment From Abe
Is Houston better off getting Aiken last year or Bregman this year?

7:58
Kiley McDaniel: #3 on my board vs. #17, so that seems pretty clear.

7:58
Comment From Tondo
Any concerns with Buehler’s career H/9? Seems to get hit a lot for a guy with his stuff

7:58
Kiley McDaniel: Not the biggest concern, but he’s easy to see his arm parth and doesn’t have much plane.

7:58
Comment From How does Jay compare to Sale at the same stage?
What looks weird about Tucker’s swing is that he drops his hands a little and points the barrel a little back toward the catcher.

7:59
Kiley McDaniel: Ideal hitting position to be in the zone as long as possible and get bat flat early, provided you have enough strength to still have some power, which he does.

7:59
Comment From Robert
Bregman, Tucker, Cameron would be a pretty crazy haul. You think the Astros could get enough of a discount from Bregman to make it work?

7:59
Kiley McDaniel: I think so. They also have other high-ish picks that they can grab seniors with.

8:00
Comment From Ebi
If Moncada were drafted, would he be an easy first overall?

8:00
Kiley McDaniel: I think so, but there’s a bunch of games that scouts haven’t seen the current version of Moncada play and that would decide it.

8:00
Kiley McDaniel: I know of at least one very high ranking scout that would take Swanson over Moncada.

8:01
Comment From EccentricChemist
Any other major fallers in this draft now besides Cameron with all the information that has now been released?

8:01
Kiley McDaniel: Cornelius Randolph, another GA prep bat with the sam adviser, has floated big but not quite as big as Cameron demands

8:07
Kiley McDaniel: Well I guess not that far. Stephenson/Randolph was seen as PHI’s decision, just thought it would go the other way. Should be Stephenson here.

8:10
8:11
Comment From TKDC
Updated pick for ATL with Randolph gone?

8:12
Kiley McDaniel: College pitcher. There’s a bunch in play here. Buehler, Harris, Funkhouser, Kaprielian

8:12
Comment From yoooo
Where do you see Trenton Clark’s most likely landing point? Rays, Pittsburgh maybe?

8:14
Kiley McDaniel: Marlins or Rays

8:14
Comment From Jake H
MLB just used your video I think for that bat flip

8:14
Kiley McDaniel: Yeah they used it a week after I posted it, but they called to ask for permission so it’s cool

8:14
Comment From Phillies113
Since I didn’t see it come down, I’m just gonna assume Stephenson flipped that bat into orbit.

8:15
Comment From Kaleb
Cameron and Stephenson still there…gotta believe one ends up with Atlanta. Big ups on the list Kiley.

8:15
Kiley McDaniel: Not so fast!

8:15
Comment From CJ
Dave Cameron has said that pitchers with below average velocity, but above average command and with a good change up are generally underrated as prospects. Is there a type of player you think is generally underrated as a prospect?

8:15
Kiley McDaniel: Yep, in part because they don’t get drafted very high

8:15
Comment From woot
Was Stephenson the Reds first choice there?

8:15
Kiley McDaniel: They were hoping someone from the top group slipped to them and he did

8:15
Comment From BKBlueJays
Has Toronto been linked to any of the injured pitchers at #29?

8:16
Kiley McDaniel: No team is really linked to the injured pitchers for reasons mentioned earlier in this chat, except for the Dodgers since they have a strong system and a July 2 spree coming, so they can take the risk.

8:16
Comment From Kaleb
Also, really wouldn’t surprise me if Atlanta went with Aiken and shocked the world. Former no. 1 with TJ behind him. Sounds right up Hart’s alley.

8:16
Kiley McDaniel: Very unlikely

8:22
Comment From DC
kiley if you have been kidnapped blink twice

8:23
Comment From aaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhh
Was Naylor an attempt to save pool money for a later pick?

8:25
Kiley McDaniel: It’ll do that too, but he wasn’t gonna be at their next pick. This happens sometimes, like with Kodi Medeiros last year. Defensible if they cut a lot of money

8:25
Comment From Marko
Any reason for Trenton Clark slipping?

8:25
Kiley McDaniel: Not sure. Some scouts say tweener but even those guys didn’t think he’d get past Tampa

8:36
Comment From Pierre
Does the Naylor selection indicate the Fish might make a run at Aiken at 50? Any chance Aiken falls that far?

8:36
Kiley McDaniel: Could get there, no real feel for where Aiken lands, but it’ll be somewhere tonight.

8:36
Comment From Sean Nolin
Odds Marlins land Hooper in the second round, with cap space saved?

8:37
Kiley McDaniel: That’s a maybe but SF would have to pass twice

8:37
Comment From Kaleb
Holeman burger is on me if the Braves pass up Cameron now…

8:37
Kiley McDaniel: Free burger for me!

8:37
Comment From Nosh Jaylor
Did the Naylor selection put you into a coma? ‘Cause food comas are kinda his thing.

8:38
Comment From Mike
HSer’s at the draft are going to sign for sure, right? Wouldn’t it be kind of dumb if they didn’t?

8:39
Kiley McDaniel: That’s why more don’t do it

8:39
Comment From Marky Mark
who the yankees going to take now?

8:39
Kiley McDaniel: My guess is Kaprielian

8:39
Comment From Derek
I’ve often seen the term “tweener”, what’s a tweener?

8:40
Kiley McDaniel: Not the ideal power for a corner position, not the ideal speed for a middle position. Works for SS/3B and CF/RF or LF.

8:40
Kiley McDaniel: Doesn’t count for the mock numbers, but I got that one

8:42
Comment From Mike C
If Allard proves healthy, does your FV on him improve significantly?

8:43
Kiley McDaniel: Yeah if it’s all back, it’s a 55 or 60 FV. Same general idea as Max Fried, but Fried had elbow surgery.

8:43
Comment From George
Jorge is calling you a nerd. What are you going to do about it?

8:43
Kiley McDaniel: Respond to him publicly via twitter!

8:43
Comment From Nosh Jaylor
Are there management teams that just don’t “get it”? That you regularly shake your head at during the draft?

8:44
Kiley McDaniel: Privately, but it usually doesn’t keep up in the draft for more than a year or two. Eventually they’ll take a guy I like with a high pick

8:44
Comment From Critical Thinker
In a fifteen-person Fangraphs battle royale at the Spring Training house, who ends up on top and what are the alliances formed along the way?

8:44
Kiley McDaniel: I win by commenting on everyone’s ability from outside the ring

8:44
Comment From This Clown
What Hall of Fame player can Brewers fans most reasonably expect Trenton Clark to become?

8:44
Kiley McDaniel: Lots of Hunter Pence in Trenton Clark

8:45
Comment From SIlky Johnson
What’s the word on Allard’s back injury?

8:45
Kiley McDaniel: Not a long term question

8:45
Comment From Matt
What the heck are the Braves doing? Don’t they have enough young, oft-injured lefties?

8:45
Kiley McDaniel: Both Fried and Allard wouldn’t have been availble to them healthy, so they took the opportunity to buy low and hope health returns

8:47
Kiley McDaniel: I mentioned Aiken in the Indians’ mix, so I think I get partial credit for this one?

8:47
Comment From Nick
Thoughts on Kaprielian?

8:48
Kiley McDaniel: Good, two 55 pitches that will flash 60 at times, 50 CH and CMD, good durable frame. High probability 3rd/4th starter

8:48
Comment From Mike C
Not a draft question, but thoughts on Anderson Espinoza?

8:49
Kiley McDaniel: Very good, much better than his bonus relative to others in his draft class. Some Red Sox fans asked why I had him so high pre-season with no real data, but he had an early verbal deal, like back in November, so the number was lower than his talent warranted. It’s about as good as a 17 year old 6’0 righty can look.

8:49
Comment From Call Me Carlos the Dwarf
Any chance the Yankees go Cameron at 30?

8:49
Kiley McDaniel: Possibly.

8:49
Comment From The Big Dipper
Would the Yankees have taken Whitley if he was available?

8:49
Kiley McDaniel: Definitely would’ve been in their mix.

8:49
Comment From Sean Nolin
Aiken to Indians is great, right? Indians rotation is loaded with young starters, no rush for Aiken at all

8:50
Kiley McDaniel: It’s a good pick but that’s not the reason. Value only, no need in MLB draft.

8:50
Comment From peachesnnuts
Allard is young right? 17.8 is a little below average?

8:51
Kiley McDaniel: 6 months below average. He’s real young, Aiken was too, which is a big reason why his velo popped late before the draft. Allard has hit 97 so could see the sitting velo climb from 90-93

8:51
Comment From Abe
Thanks for killing my buzz with the Pence comp for Trent Clark.

8:51
Kiley McDaniel: You know Hunter Pence is good, right?

8:55
Comment From DC
who will be the first players drafted to reach the majors? fulmer?

8:56
Kiley McDaniel: Him or Jay, whichever is used in relief. Maybe Ferrell if neither does.

8:56
Comment From Rico Brogna
Besides Cameron, who have you heard as “tough sign” guys?

8:56
Kiley McDaniel: Hooper is another, among the top 50 prospect types

8:57
Comment From Derek
How do you see the Cardinals taking at 23?

8:57
Kiley McDaniel: Could see Scott Kingery, Michael Matuella, Jon Harris, Kyle Funkhouser fitting there.

8:57
Comment From Tondo
I guess Buehler’s H/9 is an issue after all…

8:58
Kiley McDaniel: Durability is the big question there. Stuff/command has always been good. Lack of deception is tertiarty issue.

8:58
Comment From Nosh Jaylor
Right after my team picks I’m always filled with crushing Cistulli-esque ennui. Does any of this really matter? These are teenagers! I’ve wasted my life! TALK ME OFF THE EDGE KILEY~!

8:58
Kiley McDaniel: I’m kinda busy, sorry.

8:58
Comment From Kenneth
What do you think of this Bickford pick for SF?

8:58
Kiley McDaniel: Earlier than expected, but KC was on him too, so maybe they needed to take him there to get him. Talent is nice fit there, just other issues that made him slide for some teams.

8:58
Comment From EDogg
Earliest range you could see Azusa Pacific’s Josh Staumont going? Is he a starter or reliever going forward?

8:59
Kiley McDaniel: Answer is here, along with answers to a bunch of other questions http://www.fangraphs.com/sc…

8:59
Comment From Mike in EV
Any chance Betts slips down to the Yankees at #30?

8:59
Kiley McDaniel: Possible, but unlikely. I think they prefer Nick Plummer among HS bats, tho

8:59
Comment From neal
how dare you compare a drafted player to hunter pence, an above-average regular. everyone knows draft picks should only be compared to hall of famers or else it’s a reach

9:00
Kiley McDaniel: This question reminded me of Ernest Hemingway.

9:00
Comment From Guy
kaprelian to the pen this stretch run for NY?

9:00
Kiley McDaniel: No

9:00
Comment From Donaldson
San Fran with the Bluejays sloppy seconds again ?

9:01
Kiley McDaniel: I don’t even know what this means

9:01
Comment From neal
hello…newman

9:01
Comment From felix p
will Yankees save some money on Kaprielian for later round?

9:01
Kiley McDaniel: don’t think so, he was supposed to go right about there

9:03
Comment From Mike C
Any Wacha in Funkhouser?

9:04
Kiley McDaniel: Weirdest question of the night

9:04
Comment From Sugar Ray
Any guesses as to who Tigers take?

9:04
Kiley McDaniel: Funkhouser or Matuella

9:04
Comment From Mack
Newman — SS or 2B? Seems he’s either a Top 10ish guy or in the 30’s and you split the difference. So where do you ultimately see him?

9:05
Kiley McDaniel: plus run, plays SS, but no power

9:05
Comment From Esteban
What’s going on w/ Jon Harris stock?

9:05
Kiley McDaniel: Never put it all together in one outing this spring. Or maybe just once.

9:06
Comment From DC
any insight on how much daz is asking for?

9:06
Kiley McDaniel: At least $4M

9:15
Comment From Guy Incognito
So, can you sell me on Richie Martin? I’m really unimpressed with that pick, with that slew of great college starters left, is there any reason the A’s went with a low-ceiling SS instead?

9:16
Kiley McDaniel: I’m back, took another snack break

9:17
Kiley McDaniel: Bat is the question, plus run/field/throw and 50 power. He’s hit before–rake on the Cape last year–but hasn’t quite done it in the spring. Could be everyday guy. Similar type deal to Matt Chapman–big tools and some questions about contact.

9:21
Comment From The Big Dipper
What does Aaron Judge have to show to get in the top 20 next year?

9:21
Kiley McDaniel: Keep performing like crazy, I guess.

9:21
Comment From Esteban
The Cardinals are going to use their Cardinal Devil Magic to get an absolute steal, aren’t they? Who ya got for STL?

9:21
Kiley McDaniel: Jon Harris makes a ton of sense on all levels here

9:23
Comment From Guest
Since the Dbacks took Swanson does that essentially mean they’ve already agreed to terms? Is AZ just paying him second slot?

9:23
Kiley McDaniel: I would guess it starts with a 6. outside chance it’s a 7.

9:23
Comment From Ryan
Is there a point of no return for hooper? Say if he’s not gone by the end of round 2 is he basically unsignable?

9:25
Kiley McDaniel: Basically, but it depends how the money is spread out. A team with lots of picks could go underslot a few times and still have a chance to get him signed in a later round

9:25
Comment From Tondo
Any idea what’s Aiken’s price tag after TJ? Indians slot value is 2.4mil. He turned down 5mil with the Astros. Do you expect a massive over slot deal for Aiken?

9:25
Kiley McDaniel: No, roughly slot. He wasn’t going higher than that.

9:26
Comment From The Dude
Ashe Russell – Fashion icon

9:26
Comment From Mike C
Too late to replace Haroldd Reynolds with you? He’s insufferable

9:26
Kiley McDaniel: The views of Mike C don’t necessarily represent the view of Kiley McDaniel or FanGraphs, Inc.

9:26
Comment From Sugar Ray
So with Allard potentially being a 55 or 60 FV if healthy, why are there only 2 other 55 FV’s in the class?

9:27
Kiley McDaniel: He was gonna go top 5 if he was healthy. See, it makes sense.

9:27
Comment From felix p
surprise so far?

9:27
Kiley McDaniel: Naylor, for sure.

9:27
Comment From Matt
Hey Kiley – if they’re all on the board at 28, would the Braves take Hayes, Betts, or Matuella? Thanks!

9:27
Kiley McDaniel: I’d bet Hayes

9:27
Comment From Ron
Any predictions on Daz? Team or if he even signs?

9:28
Kiley McDaniel: He’ll sign. Houston is the guess. Maybe Arizona as 2nd most likely.

9:28
Comment From The Oaktown
1 to 10 how weird is Trent Clark’s swing?

9:28
Kiley McDaniel: It’s funny, but funny works sometimes. Plummer’s is a little weird, too.

9:28
Comment From philip
why is nick plummer still available?

9:29
Kiley McDaniel: Tweener with no projection and some stiffness to swing. Also played no competition in Michigan, started late in spring.

9:29
Comment From Dan
The Tigers took someone that wasn’t even in your mock draft. How upset should I be?

9:30
Kiley McDaniel: On talent he could’ve been. Heard he’s get 20’s money at a later pick. all the HS RHP’s are tightly packed. There’s lots of miles on the arm, some funk, not real big, just okay delivery, but the stuff is huge and command has improved this spring.

9:30
Comment From neal
teams really running away from the lower tier of college pitchers, huh?

9:30
Kiley McDaniel: Kinda weird

9:30
Comment From Scott
Funkhouser or Buehler or Harris would be a really good value pick for Angels no?

9:31
Kiley McDaniel: Would be, but heard them hard on Trahan and he’ll be there

9:31
Comment From Jack Cecil
How do you feel about James Kaprielian? I wish i was happy about it, but i feel like this is a panic move to try and improve the team ASAP.

9:31
Kiley McDaniel: It isn’t.

9:31
Comment From soxfan
whats up with buehler falling as much as he has.

9:31
Kiley McDaniel: Durability

9:31
Comment From The Dude
It’s like after four hours of chatting you are getting worn down.

9:31
Kiley McDaniel: WHAT

9:31
Kiley McDaniel: HOW DARE YOU

9:32
Kiley McDaniel: Questions about player’s ranges or tools or best player in your state or whatever, head over here and all the answers are right there http://www.fangraphs.com/sc…

9:35
Kiley McDaniel: Not sexy but DJ Stewart gets it done

9:35
Comment From Skore
Will the Giants save some money on the Bickford pick, maybe go after Justin Hooper at #31?

9:36
Kiley McDaniel: Very possible

9:36
Comment From peachesnnuts
This will be a fun chat to read in a few years. Somehow a thread from the Sale draft got posted a few weeks ago and everyone was complaining about their team passing on him. Oh forgot to mention, Josh Sale, not Chris, everyone hated Chris.

9:36
Comment From Ron
How much do you think Tucker gets? Slot at 5 is $4,188,700

9:36
Kiley McDaniel: Pretty close to that. Probably would’ve gone 6th if not 5th

9:36
Comment From Semperty
Upside for Plummer?

9:37
Kiley McDaniel: Chance to be 55 hit/power with walks and play CF. Big upside, but plenty of risk

9:37
Comment From Semperty
What makes Plummer so risky according to you?

9:37
Kiley McDaniel: Swing has stiff finish, very limited looks against good pitching, physically maxed out

9:37
Comment From Jacob
Why is Nikorak still on the board?

9:38
Kiley McDaniel: Velo tailed off quickly in starts and weather made him start late so only got like 6-8 starts

9:38
Comment From Kiley McDaniel
Do you ever get the feeling that you’ve been chatting for so long that you just start talking to yourself at some point?

9:38
Comment From Mike in EV
For purely non-baseball reasons, I am very disappointed that Buehler wasn’t picked by the Cubs.

9:38
Comment From Johnny5
Matuella to NYY?

9:38
Kiley McDaniel: 0% chance. Look for Brady Singer or Kyle Cody.

9:38
Kiley McDaniel: They were on Plummer at 30 as well.

9:39
Comment From Ryan
I know the answer is probably no or maybe, but any chance nikorak is available at 32? And do you think the As would have taken newman if the bucs didnt?

9:43
Kiley McDaniel: HS RHP’s are the ones that slip, but I’d guess he goes soon

9:43
Kiley McDaniel: Or right now.

9:44
Comment From Jake H
Are you surprised that Matuella wasn’t the dodger pick?

9:44
Kiley McDaniel: No, but he should go soonish

9:44
Comment From Misha
are there any teams who would just not take Bickford with any pick after the positive drug test?

9:44
Kiley McDaniel: Not because of that, but I think a few might not due to medical. Wasn’t clear how much they disliked the medical.

9:45
Comment From Ronnie
Does Daz Cameron really go to FSU if the money isn’t as high as he’d like it to be?

9:45
Kiley McDaniel: I bet he’d go to a JC like Chipola

9:49
Kiley McDaniel: Well ATL is taking Mike Soroka here and not KeBryan Hayes so shred those mock drafts and burn them thanks

9:49
Comment From Joe
DJ Stewart looks, um, really big. Is he a 1B/DH type?

9:49
Kiley McDaniel: LF, he’s shockingly quick for his size. 45 runner. Former standout HS RB

9:49
Comment From Jake H
MLB just competed Nikorak to Sonny Gray. Said same size. Isnt’ Gray like 5’10” and Nikorak is 6’4″?

9:49
Kiley McDaniel: 6’5

9:49
Comment From SIlky Johnson
Thoughts on the Soroka pick?

9:50
Kiley McDaniel: Very good player, more of a 2nd rounder so I’m sure they’re saving some money and making runs at some guys later

9:50
Comment From Tom
Where do you think Mac Marshall goes? Sometime tomorrow?

9:50
Kiley McDaniel: Yes

9:50
Comment From Could it be?
Could Funkhouser fall all the way to the Brewers at 40?

9:50
Kiley McDaniel: Who knows at this point

9:58
Kiley McDaniel: Asked an exec if Funkhouser’s slide is due to his camp not sending out medicals. “I think it’s just because he sucks.” Alrighty.

9:58
Comment From Heavens Halo
How surprised are you the Angels selected Taylor Ward? Is this a signability pick to save for a player later in the draft or did the Angels just really like Ward?

9:59
Kiley McDaniel: Very surprised, but, like Naylor, I bet they think he wouldn’t make it to their next pick so they took him here and they’ll save some money.

9:59
Comment From BigWang
Carson listens to Kenny G.

9:59
Comment From Random Dude
Who’s the #1 prospect for the 2016 draft?

10:00
Kiley McDaniel: Alec Hansen, but it’s tightly packed up top and it’s really really really good. Like way better than this year. http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

10:00
Comment From soxfan
How much do you think Fulmer will need to sign with the white sox. 8th pick slot value is $3,470,600 but he would likely want more due to high regard?

10:00
Kiley McDaniel: Nah, should be slot. He wants to pitch.

10:00
Comment From Walter
What do you see the Orioles doing with pick #36?

10:00
Kiley McDaniel: one of the HS RHP is my guess

10:01
Comment From Guest
Is Ian Kenedy a good comp for Kap?

10:01
Kiley McDaniel: Different kind of guy. Kap is power guy, Kennedy is finesse

10:05
Comment From Jack Cecil
Would you like Matuella as the Yankees next pick?

10:05
Kiley McDaniel: I would like it, they weren’t going to do it

10:05
Comment From DC
do you poll people after the draft to see why a particular player slides? if so is there anything from past draft that seems like a trend, other than signability and health

10:05
Kiley McDaniel: Yeah I ask pretty quickly once the guy starts sliding. Sometimes random, sometimes medical

10:05
Comment From Larry Bernandez
was there ever an 80 FV prospect? If so, who?

10:06
Kiley McDaniel: Impossible. Can’t be expected to be the best at his position in the game before he’s been to the big leagues. 70 FV is the max. Harper, Strasburg, etc.

10:06
Comment From Thorn
how many rounds are they doing tonight?

10:06
Kiley McDaniel: 2

10:06
Comment From Matt
Why is Harris still available?

10:06
Kiley McDaniel: Not sure

10:07
Comment From Jimmy
Do yanks take Mo jr and what round does he go?

10:07
Kiley McDaniel: Sure, but not definiely. 5th-8th area

10:07
Comment From John
Any idea on how much Dakota Chalmers is demanding? Could the Mets afford him at 53 with their limited bonus pool?

10:07
Kiley McDaniel: I think so, he’s being valued around there, haven’t heard about big demands.

10:08
Comment From Sweet Dee
Good value for the Jays getting Harris at 29?

10:08
Kiley McDaniel: Might be one of the best value picks

10:08
Comment From Jake H
Holder has to be a pick that they can save money on right?

10:08
Kiley McDaniel: Not really, he was gonna go by 40-45. I wasn’t high on him but lots of teams were

10:08
Comment From JP
what do you see AJ Preller doing in his first draft? Any tell on what he prefers?

10:08
Kiley McDaniel: He’s aggressive but he doesn’t have tons of bullets tonight

10:08
Comment From AndrewYF
Surely A-Rod had to be 75 FV

10:08
Kiley McDaniel: Yeah and Ruben Rivera too, right? That’s why you limit it to the bounds of human knowledge.

10:09
Comment From EccentricChemist
If the draft didn’t have spending limits, how much different would this draft look? Some of these picks seem even more extreme than last year when it came to saving money to get another guy later.

10:09
Kiley McDaniel: Not amazingly different, just a handful of picks

10:09
Comment From Joe
Re: HS RHP for Orioles — Hasn’t really worked out well in terms of health, so that’s surprising to me.

10:09
Kiley McDaniel: Eh, Harvey has been a success so far. His value is way higher than before they drafted him. Mostly freak stuff and a little arm soreness for a kid that hadn’t thrown much. It’s a big thumbs up.

10:10
Comment From Josh C
Do you like Holder at #30? Comps?

10:11
Kiley McDaniel: Okay bat, okay speed, not a ton of power, crazy good glove and tremendous athlete that emerged late, so some scouts think the bat will come. Brandon Crawford or so.

10:11
Comment From Huey
Could Matuella or Betts drop to Yanks at 57?

10:11
Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think either will

10:14
Comment From Matt
Dakota Chalmers HAS to be the next Braves pick, right? #ALLTHEPITCHERZ

10:15
Kiley McDaniel: Def could be, but they’ve been tied to tons of players with all those picks and money, Jalen Miller is even more likely and also GA kid.

10:15
Comment From mcf1417
Kiley, please tell me how to feel about Soboka.

10:16
Kiley McDaniel: Good if we like the other guys at other picks. Completely defensible in the 40’s, fine in the 30’s, tiny reach in late 20’s. Soroka is a slow burn guy that’ll be in AA putting up numbers and you’re like oh crap he’s good. Like Tyler Danish. Actually Brady Singer in this year’s class is another prep RHP like Soroka. I’d track those two and see who ends up better.

10:16
Comment From Beau
Walker Buehler is built just like Andy Ashby. Hopefully Gabe Kapler can put some weight on him.

10:16
Kiley McDaniel: He’s more of a muscle guy from my experience

10:16
Comment From John
Ke’Brian Hayes ceiling? Harold Reynolds talking him up

10:17
Kiley McDaniel: above average everyday 3B with 55s across the board except for speed

10:17
Comment From James
Can anyone predict who SF will take?

10:17
Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think so

10:17
Comment From Brian
Would it be foolish for the team that drafts Betts to immediately move him somewhere other than Catcher? Does he really have a shot to stay there?

10:17
Kiley McDaniel: Yes, has improved a lot back there

10:18
Comment From JP
Since Preller has only one “bullet”, could you see him picking one of the guys that have fallen so far? Funkytown, Mautella, etc.

10:18
Kiley McDaniel: Sure, if they get that far

10:18
Comment From Bob
Any chance a position player could go straight from college to the majors again?

10:18
Kiley McDaniel: Hard to imagine

10:18
Comment From Fan
As a Giants fan I feel more concerned if they pick a consensus guy.

10:18
Kiley McDaniel: Might break the streak of WS in every other year

10:18
Comment From Scottt
Are Ellsbury and Gardner decent comps for Benintendi?

10:20
Kiley McDaniel: Closer to Ellsbury, just smaller physically and he’s only been heavily scouted for a few months, so there’s some question about the bat but he demolished the SEC, so that’s as good as you can do on the amateur level

10:20
Comment From Ben
Is it even feasible for a team to sign Everrett Or Daz Cameron at this point?

10:20
Kiley McDaniel: Yes. Houston will almost certainly take Daz if he’s there at 37

10:20
Comment From Phillies113
Who’s the best fat prospect left available?

10:21
Kiley McDaniel: Tyone Perry! At least 60 raw from the left side!

10:20
Kiley McDaniel:

10:22
Comment From Matt
How about Alonzo Jones at 41 for Atlanta?

10:22
Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think he signs. Hamate injury, just ok spring and Vandy commit. Wouldn’t shock me if ATL did it tho.

10:22
Comment From JP
are there any other teams that could snake HOU for Daz before 37?

10:23
Kiley McDaniel: Only 2 more picks. LA could do it I guess but I don’t think LA or BAL does. Did I get the 37th pick right? This can’t be.

10:23
Comment From John
How far do you see Funkhouser sliding

10:23
Kiley McDaniel: Should end anytime now.

10:24
Comment From Wat
Does a team like the Mariners take Daz Cameron with their first pick since they had no first rounders?

10:25
Kiley McDaniel: That’s not how it works. He won’t get past Houston and Arizona and no 1st rounder means no pool money to pay him. If money wasn’t an issue he doesn’t get out of the top 15.

10:25
Comment From Dan
Is Christin Stewart not a massive reach at #34?

10:26
Kiley McDaniel: I’d say a likely 2nd rounder taken right before the 2nd. Lots of teams and me had him in the 3rd, but it’s 65 raw from the left side and some good performances, so you can see what people like.

10:26
Comment From jj
funkhouser to houston?

10:26
Kiley McDaniel: No, Dodgers

10:26
Comment From Joe
Not sure I agree with Daz at 37 when Houston picks again about 10 picks after? Or are the DBacks that big of a threat?

10:26
Kiley McDaniel: D’Backs are huge threat

10:27
Kiley McDaniel: Alright I’m gonna wrap this up after the 37th pick, which is the last pick from my mock

10:29
Comment From Rico Brogna
When Jim Callis says “a durable starter” it sounds like “adorable starter.” Especially entertaining when describing Funkhouser.

10:30
Kiley McDaniel: Don’t pick on Jim! He’s a friend of the pod and durable and adorable

10:30
Comment From JP
thank you for answering my questions. I appreciate you taking the time to do this chat and I will be looking out for your articles in the future.

10:30
Kiley McDaniel: This may have worked too well. Now I have to write things.

10:30
Comment From Guest
What did I miss re: Daz Cameron’s stock? Last I tuned into pre-draft coverage he looked like a consensus top-10 pick.

10:30
Kiley McDaniel: Scroll up a bit, I took a couple paragraphs and explained it all.

10:30
Comment From Benny
So we should be expecting your 2016 Mock Draft tomorrow morning just like Kiper, right?

10:31
Kiley McDaniel: Of course. 5 rounds.

10:31
Comment From Rico Brogna
I heart Jim.

10:31
Comment From neal
the only adorable starter in baseball is bartolo colon

10:31
Comment From Well-Beered Englishman
Any more players you’re surprised are still on the board?

10:31
Kiley McDaniel: Betts and Matuella are my best non-Daz players available

10:34
Comment From Rico Brogna
Hooper is going to college, correct?

10:34
Kiley McDaniel: Not decided yet, but starting to look that way

10:34
Comment From Tondo
What’s the issue with David Thompson? Even if he’s only a 1B, is his bat really worse than Shaw’s?

10:34
Kiley McDaniel: a tick less raw power and RH. Should go in 2nd-4th round area

10:34
Comment From Abe
Mookie Betts?

10:35
Kiley McDaniel: I’d take him over Daz. is he still on the board?

10:35
Comment From Community Love
Three Cheers for Kiley! And also, what’s the link to sortable draft board?

10:35
Comment From Community Love
Haven’t the Dodgers sort of done the exact opposite of what was expected of them tonight? That just an issue of an industry assumption?

10:35
Kiley McDaniel: They didn’t have the bullets to overpay everyone, so playing value made sense. College righty starters slid so they took them. That’s a Friedman/Zaidi approach to the draft.

10:35
Comment From Dock
Personally not liking the Royals selections. What am I missing by them not taking Plummer when there?

10:36
Kiley McDaniel: Big upside and risk, Watson/Russell and Plummer all in the same range.

10:36
Comment From tony
Why did walker buehler drop from your way too early rankings? Also any word on why funkenhousers velocity dropped?

10:36
Kiley McDaniel: No one know why his velo dropped but it came back mostly last week. Buehler was just a proven guy with stuff so I put him at 4. If it was allowed, I would’ve just ranked him 10th and skipped 4-9.

10:41
Comment From Just asking
I’m from Toronto, any info on this class of Canadians? Is there something in the water here that I’m not aware of that’s all of a sudden producing first round talent?

10:41
Kiley McDaniel: This was known a few years in advance. Gareth Morgan was the big guys last year and we all knew Demi and Naylor were coming this year, then Soroka emerged from 4th-6th rounder to a real guy last summer

10:41
Comment From JP
How far do you see Betts sliding as of now?

10:42
Kiley McDaniel: He’ll go soon unless he put out a huge number I didn’t hear about

10:45
Comment From Mal
Call it now McDaniel…who does Houston take at 37?

10:45
Kiley McDaniel: I called it this morning and I got the 37th pick for what will clearly be the only time in my life. That’s all for tonight’s chat, thanks everybody I’m gonna go collapse now.

We hoped you liked reading Kiley McDaniel’s Superlative 2015 MLB Draft Chat by Kiley McDaniel!

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Kiley McDaniel has worked as an executive and scout, most recently for the Atlanta Braves, also for the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates. He's written for ESPN, Fox Sports and Baseball Prospectus. Follow him on twitter.

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bob
Guest
bob

You think the dbacks draft DEEZ NUTS?!!!!