Let’s Fix the Mets Outfield
The Mets have Yoenis Cespedes back! That’s great news, in that he’s a good player, they’re a win-now team, and good players help win-now teams win more. But it’s also a problem, because the Mets already had too many corner outfielders even before Cespedes re-signed with the team. With Cespedes back, they now have four guys for two spots, with three of the four being too similar to work as complementary parts. This is no longer depth; this is officially a logjam.
Complicating the problem is that the team also still kind of needs another outfielder; Juan Lagares is the only real true center fielder on the roster, but how much they can count on him is something of a question, given the thumb injury that sidelined him in 2016 and the elbow problems that limited him in 2015. If the team sees Lagares as more of a defensive replacement than a regular, then the team with the most crowded corner outfield in the game is still short a starting center fielder.
So, let’s try and help Sandy Alderson out here, and see if we can find some ways to turn four corners and no CF into a three man group the team can be happy with on most days.
Let’s say that the Mets intend to play Cespedes in left field, his preferred position, so bringing him back to town leaves mostly just right field for the combination of Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, and Michael Conforto. Yeah, Granderson played 250 innings in center last year and wasn’t a complete disaster, but he’s also going to be 36 next year, and he isn’t the athlete he was earlier in his career; making him a regular CF at this point seems unwise.
Granderson, Bruce, and Conforto are all left-handed, so there’s no platoon to be run there, and with a lefty swinging Lucas Duda penciled in at first base, they can’t even really move too many PAs there either; at least one of the three has to go. And given that the Cespedes contract pushes the team pretty close to the roughly $150 million in payroll they spent on the 2016 edition of their roster, it’s not too hard to make a case that Granderson or Bruce should be the odd man out, so that the team can free up $10-$15 million in salary to spend on upgrades elsewhere. Keeping either of those guys around as a part-time player would be a weird way to use 9-10% of the team’s payroll, and given that both only have one year left on their deals, they should both be tradable.
Given how poorly he played after coming over to New York at the deadline, Bruce seems like the more natural target to dump. He’s also younger and a little cheaper, so there might be more suitors for Bruce as well, who could look at him as this year’s Mark Trumbo; a cheap source of power on a one year commitment, hoping to get a big walk year and maybe land a draft pick if he leaves as a free agent next winter. And, the team that pulled this trick with Trumbo last year could now use a right fielder, so you’d think there’s at least a natural phone call there between Alderson and Dan Duquette. The Blue Jays have also been tied to Bruce, having almost acquired him last spring, and the Red Sox could use a left-handed OF/DH, so there are plenty of potential landing spots for Bruce in the AL East.
But while dumping most of Bruce’s salary and getting whatever non-prospect back in return a +1 WAR slugger making $13 million can command would be the easy first step, it doesn’t really solve the Mets problems. They’d still have the left-handed Conforto around to back up the left-handed Granderson, and they still wouldn’t have a center fielder, or at least, not one they can definitely count on. So dumping Bruce is just step one in the plan to fix the Mets outfield.
Step two is a bit more interesting, and probably involves shopping Conforto around the league. This would have sounded unthinkable a year ago, when Conforto looked like the future of the Mets offense as a rookie, but after a down year in 2016 that included a stint back in Triple-A, Conforto’s future in New York is a bit more questionable. Especially with Cespedes now re-signed for the next four years, Conforto is looking at another year as a part-time player in 2017, and has to hope to do enough in that role to get the team to trust him with a starting job in 2018, after Granderson likely leaves as a free agent.
The Mets could certainly hold onto Conforto as depth for this year, giving him playing time at the corners when either Cespedes or Granderson need a day off, or giving him some time at first base if Duda’s back issues flare up again, and have him around for 2018 and beyond as a regular. But there might be value in seeing if they can turn him into an everyday center fielder instead, turning some long-term value into an upgrade for 2017 that might fit better with their current roster.
For instance, let’s just say the Mets called the Pirates and asked Neil Huntington to think about whether he’d be interested in acquiring Conforto in a deal that brought Andrew McCutchen to New York. I don’t know that the Mets make that move one for one — the upgrade might not be worth giving up five years of Conforto and taking on ~$28 million in salary for the next two years — but it’s not too hard to think about a deal that is centered around those two switching cities, with McCutchen joining Cespedes to provide some right-handed offense in a line-up that leans left-handed at the moment.
Of course, McCutchen’s defensive abilities in CF are a bit up in the air right now, given his career-worst season with the glove last year, so maybe the Mets would rather acquire a guy who can cover a bit more ground if they’re giving up on Conforto’s offensive potential. There may be a few options in that realm too.
If you want pure defense, I could see the Reds being interested in shipping Billy Hamilton to New York if it got them Conforto, since Hamilton only has three years of team control remaining; Conforto might fit their long-term plan a bit better. Hamilton might be too similar to Lagares in terms of creating value from his defense, but if you think his second half improvement in plate discipline and adjustments in batted ball profile might be legitimate, Hamilton could probably make himself a regular +3 WAR player by hitting just enough to let his legs create a lot of value. Again, I don’t know if there’s a one-for-one trade to be made there, but it’s not too hard to see a win-win deal centered around Conforto and Hamilton.
Or, if the Mets wanted a younger Cespedes-style player who can handle center, maybe the Cardinals would be interested in swapping Randal Grichuk for Conforto, giving them more of their kind of hitter to replace Matt Holliday in left field. Grichuk is young enough and valuable enough that picking him up in a deal wouldn’t really be moving future for present, as much as it would be moving lefty corner guy for righty center guy, which could help the Mets rearrange their talent level in a way that better fits what else they have.
I think I’d like the 2017 Mets better with any of McCutchen, Hamilton, or Grichuk in center field instead of having Granderson and Lagares share time there, and I don’t think it’s all that crazy to think that making Conforto available gets you any of those three, and maybe plus something else in those deals as well. There aren’t a lot of good young hitters out there, and the Mets will have a surplus of lefty corner outfielders even if they ship Bruce to Baltimore for some packing tape and a couple things of Old Bay, so putting Conforto out there in a seller’s market might not be a bad idea.
If Conforto can get you a legitimate upgrade in center field, or at least a guy like Grichuk who might fit the Mets roster a bit better, that’s probably a move the Mets should consider making. Keeping Conforto sort of works if Bruce is sent away, but moving both could give the Mets their best chance of winning in 2017. And given the money they just committed to Cespedes, taking advantage of his prime is probably an idea worth pursuing.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I’m concerned that a four-year deal for Yoenis Cespedes will block Tim Tebow on the organizational depth chart.
LMHAO!!!!
But why would the Pirates trade for an OF?
If you feel that the value of the package you’re getting is better than what you’re giving up (whether it’s Conforto or Conforto+), you make the trade. Conforto can start in right with Polanco and Marte moving positions, and Austin Meadows starts in the minors. If Meadows dominates AAA, you can always flip one of your outfielders for premier pitching.
I think moving basically anybody *but* Conforto is likely to be the answer here. All the other guys you mention are 30+ and gone soon. May as well run Lagares out there for the defense, assuming they’re going to stop sending everybody through there for a couple of hundred innings
Find a way to move Granderson and Bruce and go pay Fowler?
Why the hell would you move Granderson?
To free up the cash necessary to go get Fowler as well as allowing the Mets to give Conforto more PAs.
That would be unwise. There might be an argument for moving Bruce, but there is no reasonable one for trading Granderson, who has been worth 10 WAR or so in his time with the Mets, and remains a perfectly capable CF, especially in a platoon. Granderson has been as good as Fowler the last two years, and proved himself capable of still playing CF at an above average level. A Granderson/Lagares platoon in CF is one of the league’s best. No need to make changes there. As far as Conforto, he skipped AAA, and clearly would benefit from a less rushed development. Keep Bruce unless someone will pay his entire salary and give up a return similar to what Mets paid (Wotell +Herrera), and option Conforto to AAA for a half season, netting an extra year of Conforto in the process and the chance to cash in Bruce for a better return after he returns to form at the deadline or via a QO.
So that I’m clear, your suggestion is that the Mets’ solution to an overly crowded outfield, unless someone will pay Bruce’s entire salary, is to do nothing? To keep the crowded outfield? To pay Bruce $13M to be a part-time player? To limit Conforto to fewer than 100 games? To pay Granderson $15M to be a platoon player?
This seems….unwise.
Honestly, these proposals are pretty awful for the Mets. McCutchen is another corner outfielder at this point, so that doesn’t solve the issue of not having a center fielder. Billy Hamilton is a bad hitter who plays great defense, and the Mets already have that with Lagares. Grichuk maybe makes some sense, but Conforto has demonstrably better offensive upside when not hindered by a wrist injury or Terry Collins jerking him around and refusing to play him.
Keep Conforto and let him play everyday in RF. Let Lagares do his defensive thing in CF with smatterings of Granderson. Or, in a dream scenario, dump Granderson too and sign Fowler.
To the issue of Collins “refusing to play” Conforto:
— Conforto played regularly thru June 24, on pace for 547 PAs to that point.
— He hit .222/.296/.431 to that point. This is a left fielder, not a shortstop.
— He collapsed after a hot April, hitting .148 with 12 RBI in May and June. The Mets offense scored 3.2 R/G in that stretch.
But you wanted to stick with Conforto?
He came up twice more after that, but he never hit enough to earn a regular job. And he had no hidden advantages — e.g., he hit significantly worse with men on base last year, with a 4/1 SO/BB ratio.
Look around MLB last year and see how many players age 23 or younger played as much as Conforto last year while producing as little. You might be surprised. Per Fangraphs, there were 24 guys age 23 or less who batted 300 times. Conforto was 20th in wOBA, 18th in fWAR.
I’d love to have enough offense to play him every day for a year no matter how bad he slumps. But I don’t see us having that luxury, and this team is built to win NOW. I haven’t given up on him, but if there’s a team out there that still rates him as highly as we did a year ago, I would explore a trade.
How about down the stretch when Bruce was literally useless? Or how about not putting him on the DL when he’s dealing with a sore wrist for 6 weeks after a hot start? Or when he was sent up and down twice only to sit on the bench rather then getting consistent at bats? Conforto clearly has immense potential (see 2015 and the healthy portions of 2016), using him as a bench bat is beyond stupid.
I agree. If the Mets think that Conforto needs a few more years to blossom, than moving him now makes sense given the players they have. They have a very good rotation now, but pitchers can easily become unavailable for long periods of time as we have seen with Wheeler.
Also, I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss McCutchen because of one bad season. For me, it’s not enough to determine that he can’t be an average to slightly below average CF going forward. He may have been dealing with some sort of injury. If the Mets think that McCutchen can come close to the superstar level he was at before, than they should definitely consider trading Conforto for him.
Hamilton is somewhat redundant with Lagares, but at least the Mets would have a legitimate option at CF if they don’t feel Lagares can play a whole season. Also, Hamilton and Lagares could form a decent platoon.
Conforto never was given a legit chance in the subsequent call-ups. He’d be benched after 1 0-4. His swing was noticeably better for his final call up, when he destroyed Vegas and he was using the whole field. TC just didn’t play him.
In his first recall, Conforto started 13 of 23 games and averaged 2.5 PAs per team-game. At no point did he sit out even 2 straight games, or go 2 straight games without getting 2+ PAs in a game.
He hit .200 with 1 HR, 3 RBI in 50 ABs. At that point, I stopped caring what he had hit in Vegas.
I’ll grant that he got little chance in his second recall, in September. But by that time, they had dealt for Bruce; and as bad as Bruce looked at times, he was okay in September, and there are obvious reasons to play him over Conforto anyway. Conforto wasn’t going to play over Granderson (who raked in September), or Cespedes (who didn’t, but come on).
So who done him wrong?
As the team’s been living with this outfield more or less (minus Jay Bruce, who I think everyone agrees needs to just be traded immediately for whatever they can get back) for the better part of two years already, I’ve thought a lot about how to manage it. I think you can make the mix they have (again minus Bruce) work pretty well if you’re willing to give everybody pretty regular days off.
The way I’m envisioning it is something like this, over the course of a seven-game week. Cespedes starts in LF six days, and sits once. Lagares starts in CF five days, and sits twice (could be 4/3 if we’re not that high on him). Whichever of Granderson and Conforto is better able to handle CF (personally I think that’s Granderson) starts in CF when Lagares sits, call it two days a week, and starts in RF, let’s say, three days, for a total of five days starting. Then the fourth guy, let’s say Conforto, starts in RF four days a week and LF once, when Cespedes sits. That’s 5 starts per week each from Conforto, Granderson, and Lagares, with 6 from Cespedes. If you want to take one Lagares start and redistribute it to Granderson you can do that too, or to Conforto for that matter.
Everyone gets regular rest, Lagares’s defense is in there most of the time. Cespedes and Lagares obviously play against all left-handed starters. If it’s managed properly I think this mix of outfielders can be perfectly functional, and I’m not sure any of the players mentioned here as alternatives are superior baseball players to any of the four. (Though that may involve being somewhat high on Lagares myself.)
Absolutely not everyone agrees with trading Bruce. Makes far, far more sense to finally let Conforto get a half year at AAA, netting an extra year of his services, considering the holes in his game which were exposed last year. He has been rushed and skipped AAA entirely because of the Mets 2015 world series run. Now is the chance to let him get his seasoning, gain an extra year of his prime, and put yourself in a position to recoup better value for Bruce at the trade deadline or a QO if he recovers old form. No one is going to trade anything for Bruce of close to the value the Mets paid for him. Trading him now would be classic “buy high, sell low” behavior. Nothing wrong at all with Cespedes in LF, Granderson in CF, Bruce in RF, with Lagares and Ruggiano playing everyday vs Lefties and Granderson and Bruce sitting. Grandy and Bruce are both FA’s next year, so trading Conforto would be a mistake unless the haul is McCutcheon straight up and he moves to RF.
The things that are wrong with that plan (in my view at least) are basically 1. good lord that defensive alignment is atrocious, with Granderson flanked by Bruce; and 2. Michael Conforto is almost certainly better at baseball right now than Jay Bruce is. That last claim is certainly backed up by the projections, which see Conforto as a +2.5 WAR player in a little under 600 PAs compared to Bruce’s less than +1 WAR in just over 600 PAs. Conforto’s probably a better hitter and is definitely the better defender, probably by a lot.
Also Conforto spent large parts of 2016 at AAA and murdered the ball. Like, .422/.483/.727 murdered. I doubt he has anything much left to learn there.
Yes, trading Bruce now will not recoup Dilson Herrera levels of value. That’s because the initial trade was awful. Playing Bruce over the superior Conforto in the likely-futile hope that he recovers enough value to trade for something Herrera-ish feels to me like throwing good money after bad. Take what you can get, make the best of a bad situation, and commit to giving Conforto a roughly equal 3/4 share of the outfield playing time next year. He’s good enough to deserve it.
How is that defensive alignment “atrocious”? Granderson has never been a below average CF, and you have the best CF defensively in baseball backing him up. Cespedes is a superlative defender in LF. Bruce has been bad the last few years, but has not always put up poor defensive numbers, so it’s not clear that he is terrible to begin with, but even if I accept last year’s numbers as his true talent level, 1 bad Outfielder out of 4 hardly makes a ‘terrible’ defensive alignment. And I’m not completely sold that Bruce is quite as terrible defensively as his numbers indicate last year; they seem somewhat anamolous when compared to his career norms, and I think his career defensive numbers provide a more reasonable expectation for his performance rather than relying solely on last year.
Conforto might well be better than Bruce next year, but Bruce might also return to his old 5 WAR form, and you’re not going to get a solid return for him right now. Projections are projections; they aren’t always right and it isn’t like Steamer is a particularly accurate one. Bruce is a talented player who put up consistent 4-5 WAR seasons fairly recently. He remains in his prime and was the top prospect in baseball coming up and it’s very possible that he will regress back towards his true talent level, after some admittedly weak performances. More importantly, Conforto was rushed up not because he was ready, but because the Mets were on a World Series run. He would benefit from a half season in AAA, which he skipped entirely except for 1 month last year. He moved directly from AA and everyone saw that he had aspects of his game that need development. Guy is just 23 and has very little minor league experience, and if we option him just for the first 2 months of the season, we net an extra FA year of Conforto in his prime, and delay his arbitration. So it’s actually trading Bruce which will surely be the most expensive option, assuming that Conforto’s FA year costs more than 13 million, which it will. Even if Conforto is significantly better than Bruce, we can have him up by June anyway, so Conforto’s possibly or probably being better than Bruce in 2017 (which is far from guaranteed) doesn’t necessarily imply that the best move is not optioning him for 2 months, and seeing if you can get more value from dealing Bruce at the deadline or tendering him if he does return to his form of a few seasons ago, and getting an extra year of prime Conforto rather than rushed Conforto.
You do realise that Bruce has provided close to replacement level value for 3 straight years.
At this point, the team employing Jay Bruce in 2017 will be elated if he can return to being even a league average player.
He also was in the middle of the best offensive season of his career when the Mets acquired him, and his defensive numbers last year look extremely out of line with his norms. Whether or not they will be elated doesn’t mean that it’s out of the question that he will go back to his previous level of performance when still in his prime. Many players do. Take Granderson for example. Or look at Justin Turner or Daniel Murphy if you need proof that talented players sometimes make adjustments. Bruce still has loads of talent and it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see him hit 40 homeruns and play average RF defense next year, and perhaps finally develop a little patience at the plate, and become the player everyone projected him to be coming up. 13 million is not a crazy price to find out if Bruce can reach his ceiling finally. He would also significantly benefit from a platoon mate, say, Justin Ruggiano.
No, Conforto did not spend “large parts of the season at AAA.” He spent about 30 days there. Guy only has 733 career minor league plate appearances. He has been significantly rushed. An extra full year of Conforto at 29 will be worth more than 2 months of Conforto at 23 without question, and no one who saw him play last year would think he has nothing left to learn in the minor leagues. There is nothing wrong with being a little patient with Conforto and letting him play 2-3 months in AAA as depth when 4 of the Mets starters are inevitably out for the season by July. I absolutely promise you that no one will be complaining the Mets have ‘too much depth” by midseason. It will be a Christmas miracle if the Mets starting crew of D’Arnaud/Duda/Walker/Cabrera/Wright/Cespedes/Granderson/Bruce makes it through the year without multiple season-ending injuries
The trouble with giving Conforto a half-year at Vegas is the grossly distorted environment there. I was disappointed when we extended that relationship recently. I don’t know what anyone learns from a place where the whole team (including pitchers!) batted .291 with a .365 OBP, yet was out-scored.
We all know that you have to deflate those numbers, but how does a Las Vegas batting coach convince someone like Eric Campbell that his .322 career BA in that town doesn’t mean he’s doing well enough to succeed in the majors? (Well, Soup knows now, I guess.) How do you tell Matt Reynolds that his .284 BA there is a failing grade?
If Conforto goes back there, the message should be that he will be graded solely on things like contact rate, curve-ball recognition, and hitting to all fields, with zero regard to triple-crown stats.
Surprisingly uninformed column from Dave. “Was above average” now equals “wasn’t a disaster” for Granderson? Cespedes was the disaster in CF; Granderson has been above average in CF every season in his entire career, including 2016, and is significantly better suited to play there than anywhere else in the OF. His noodle arm is no fit for RF and he’s never played LF, which is Cespedes’ territory. The only reason Granderson was moved to begin with was that Lagares was, at the time, coming off his monster season the year Grandy was signed. If Granderson, despite never posting below average CF numbers in his life is an inadequate CF for Dave, how the hell does Andrew McCutcheon fix the problem?
Conforto still hasn’t logged a full year in AAA (he skipped AAA, aside from 1 month last year when he was demoted) and could use a couple months time there, after struggling greatly at the plate last year. Leaving Conforto down for 2 months will net the Mets an extra year of his services anyway, and it would be silly not to do so, given the Mets abundance of outfielders.
The solution to this non problem? Bruce in RF (barring a very strong trade offer for a useful prospect and a team which will pay the entire contract), Granderson in CF, Cespedes in LF. Lagares as the backup, playing CF vs Lefties and defensive replacement. Re-sign Ruggiano who was recently non-tendered as the 5th outfielder, preferably on a minor league invite for flexibility. Ruggiano and Lagares should play everyday vs Lefties; Granderson and Bruce should NEVER play vs Lefties. Conforto should stay in AAA until at least June.
There’s really no logjam here. I wouldn’t trade Bruce unless there was an excellent return. Otherwise better to let Conforto have a half season in AAA which he skipped and keep him for an extra year and delay his arbitration, and potentially get a draft pick on a QO for Bruce if he returns to his level of performance from a couple years ago, which is hardly out of the question.
Granderson has been a league average over his career with a +2.4 UZR (+0.4 UZR/150), but his last season of significant CF play was with the Yankees in 2012 when he put up -18.1 UZR (-18.5 UZR/150). He used to be much better. He’s been fine over ~500 innings since 2013, but to commit to him as your CF is putting a lot of faith in a 36 year old who hasn’t put significant time at the position in 4 years.
Fair enough, but his career numbers are fine in CF; he looked very strong there last year; he has the best CF in baseball to back him up and get 1/3 of the starts (all the starts vs Lefties); the 2012 year looks very anomalous in light of his career norms; and he is better suited to play CF than RF and has better numbers there. Unless someone is going to pay all of Bruce’s contract and give up an at least decent prospect, I’d rather go Cespedes/Granderson/Bruce with Lagares and Ruggiano starting vs Lefties and Conforto up by the all-star break and getting a non-rushed developmental path so he reaches his true potential and we get an extra prime year from him. Grandy and Bruce are both FA’s at the end of the year, so it’s not like this is a long-term problem, even if you do think it’s a short-term one.
Forget about his career numbers in center field. He’s 36 years old. The fact that he was an elite athlete in his 20s and was a good glove in center is irrelevant. It’s like saying he’s still a capable base stealer because he was good at that 10 years too. He was passable in a short sample last year. That’s great and all but that doesn’t mean he’s someone you want to stick in CF daily.
First of all, Lagares is also going to play 50-60 games in CF so he’s not really going to play every day. I’m sure Granderson can play 100-110 games in CF in a platoon with Lagares that will be a quite productive offense/defense lefty/righty platoon. Moreover, the idea that the Mets have a lot of depth to be given away here is an illusion. We haven’t even seen Lucas Duda come back healthy or swing a bat at all yet. If he’s not going to play much, Bruce has to be the 1B and Conforto the RF. We don’t want to count too much on Lucas Duda’s glorious return, and get stuck watching James Loney all year again. Mets are coming off an astronomical number of injuries (Duda, Walker, Wright, Lagares, Flores, Cabrera, D’Arnaud) and can’t just give guys away. Last, no one is going to give up anything of value that would make it worthwhile for the Mets to trade either Granderson or Bruce in the final year of their contracts. But you can’t trade Conforto either, because he’s also not going to return value after a down year, and more importantly, you’d then have only 1 starting outfielder returning in 2018, with both Bruce and Granderson free agents.Since you can’t get anything worth giving up productive MLB bats in Conforto, Bruce, or Granderson, you need to make the best use of what you have. Play Granderson in CF which he has been fine at in 50 games over the last 3 years. Lagares is going to play a lot anyway, and we got by with Cespedes there last year, who is an awful CF. Mets can let Conforto learn CF in AAA, which he had started to do before we called him up to rot on the bench again late last year. If we don’t try to get Conforto to learn CF, we end up just having this same problem next year. We need to have him start playing some RF too, which he hasn’t really done. Almost all his games are in LF which he’s not going to play anymore unless he leaves the org
Time to bring Justin Turner home next, unless you were counting on David Wright’s back to magically heal
Question for discussion. Worst move of Sandy Anderson’s tenure, losing Justin Turner for nothing, or losing Daniel Murphy for a draft pick? last year’s Mets + Turner + Murphy=world series. Alderson always undervalued those two for little to no reason
Angel Pagan trade gets an honorable mention
Turner was a 25th man type utility guy that supposedly took his body more seriously and made a major mechanical change at the plate. Nobody saw his breakout coming. That’s why the best he was able to command was a minor league deal. Murphy is similar in that he was a good but not great bat with a shit glove at second. The Nats tried to sign Zobrist. When that didn’t work, they tried to trade for Brandon Phillips. Murphy was, by all accounts, a distant third in terms of Mike Rizzo’s preferred options. Again, if any other GM around the sport thought Murphy’s transformation into Barry Bonds in the 2015 postseason would carry over, he would have done a lot better 3/$37M. If anything your honorable mention is probably the most deserving of scorn.
Turner made his adjustment with the Mets in late-August 2013. Started driving the ball out of nowhere and ended the season with a .280 BA. No reason he should have been non-tendered. Similarly with Murphy, his change came with the Mets and they let him go as well. The Mets should know their players better than any other team in the league.
Trading Bruce for next to nothing makes sense if they reallocate his $13M elsewhere. At that point I don’t think you really have a surplus any longer. Duda is no guarantee to come back mashing. In that case Conforto makes a great plan B for first base. Also, Granderson and Cespedes are both over 30 and will likely each hit the DL at least once.
Agree that there is no way Mets trade Bruce for next to nothing, and they would be foolish to do so. Unless the Mets get a prospect and pay 0 of his salary, better to keep the depth considering how fragile our team is, and roll the dice on Bruce returning to 4-5 win form, which is quite plausible. No one will be complaining the Mets have ‘too much depth” come June, believe me.
One quibble: it would make more sense to play Bruce at 1B in that scenario. Conforto is the much better outfielder, is young and should be developing his defensive outfield skills.Bruce is also a lefty thrower, and a taller target than Conforto, and would probably be a strong defensive first baseman. It would be extremely surprising if Conforto isn’t a better outfielder than Bruce defensively, and it would also be surprising if Bruce is not a better defensive 1B than Conforto, who should be working on his OF defense anyway, since they will definitely need him to be starting there in 2018, when Bruce and Grandy are both Free Agents.
Bruce has not been worth more than 1 WAR since 2013. At $13M for 2017 he has no value. 4-5 wins out of him is a pipe dream.
It isn’t. He’s played at that level of performance for several years as recently as 2013, and is almost certainly not as bad as he looked in 2016, during which he did hit 33 homeruns. It’s far from out of the question that he plays an average RF next year and hits 35+ homeruns and draws some more walks and retains his form from a few years ago. Many players have done this. See Granderson for instance. Bruce was the best prospect in baseball coming up, is in his prime, and is an enormously talented player. It is extremely unlikely that he will be as bad as he was last year with the Mets again. People are also forgetting that he was in the middle of the best offensive season of his career before the trade, after which he was terrible for an extended period. It’s at least reasonable to expect that he returns to the form he showed for the first half of 2016, with defensive numbers more in line with his career averages, and is a 3+ win player. Even if he’s not, you don’t trade him unless there’s a solid return and his salary is paid the acquiring team. Sandy just picked up the option a few weeks ago, he’s not going to pay half his salary or trade him for nothing when no new information on Bruce’s performance has come in. He knew from the beginning that he was probably going to retain Cespedes, and he wouldn’t have picked up the option if he wasn’t comfortable keeping him and hoping for a return to form if no acceptable trade offer materializes. People who think Sandy is going to give Bruce away for nothing a couple weeks after giving him a 12 million contract are crazy. Maybe no one offers anything good for him after seeing how much he struggled with the Mets; in that case, the Mets will keep him happily and give Conforto some much-needed development time and as a hedge against injuries to be promoted in June. Nothing wrong with that
Bruce’s 2013 season is not only 3+ years ago, but his 4.2 WAR included a fluky looking 10.1 UZR/150. That’s from a player with a career 1.5 UZR/150 who has put up negative UZR/150’s each of the last few years (between -4 and -9 each year) and turns 30 in April 2017.
Even if you believe that Bruce can get back to hitting value around 115-120 wRC+ – like 2011 to 2013 – he’s far more likely to be around a 2 – 2.5 WAR player than around a 4 WAR player because the UZR/150 is almost certainly more like a -5 than a +10. In each of the past two years, he’s also lost 4-5 runs of baserunning value versus 2013, which could knock him down to about 2 WAR even if he hits well.
There’s also the fact that his 2013 hitting line included a .322 BABIP from a player who now has a career .284 BABIP.
Okra is right: 4-5 wins from Bruce is a pipe dream.
I am projecting Bruce at +2 UZR/150 (his career average.)
Bruce put up a 112 wRC+ last year, including 124 before the trade). In ’15 he put up a 92, and ’14 a 79. In the 4 years before that, he was very consistent, hitting between 115-124 every year and playing 150-160 games a season. He was in the process of matching a career high WRC+ last year. Given that he hit 124 for most of last year, and hit between 115-124 for 4 years in a row from ’11-13, it’s certainly not unreasonable to think that Bruce hits 124 next year.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but wouldn’t a 124 + wRC and +2 defense in RF amount to roughly 4 WAR? If so, it’s certainly not out of the question or a “pipe dream” that he hits at the level he’s hit at for 5 of the last 7 seasons, and plays defense at the average level that he’s played over that span. Players also often make steps forward, like Daniel Murphy or Justin Turner or Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion. Bruce has loads of talent, massive power, and was once the best prospect in baseball. If he improved his plate discipline and approach it’s certainly not unreasonable to think he could hit 40 homers and top the .559 slugging percentage he put up prior to the trade deadline.
At the very least it’s certainly not a “pipe dream” to think Jay Bruce might have another 4 WAR season in his prime. I didn’t say it was the most likely outcome; I said I’d rather “ROLL THE DICE” on Bruce returning to 4+ WAR form and putting everything together, and let Conforto develop a bit in AAA rather than give away Bruce for pennies on the dollar.
Mets are constantly making these moves where we give guys away for next to nothing (Justin Turner, Daniel Murphy, Angel Pagan) just as they are about to break out, and then you guys are always saying “no one could have predicted that!” Sometimes, you need to take talent into context when evaluating performance and not give away guys for nothing by assuming that they will never take a step forward, and that every year they will repeat the same result. You don’t buy high and sell low if you want to be successful. Bruce has shown signs of putting everything together, and if the alternative is giving him away for a non-prospect or eating some of his salary, you’d be crazy not to keep him and roll the dice. Worst case scenario is that he sucks, and you promote Conforto by June.
Again with your career numbers… Why are you projecting a guy who’s defense and base running have visibly cratered following a knee surgery a couple of years ago to produce at his career average? You’re dreaming if you think 2017 Jay Bruce will magically become an above-scratch defender again like he was several years ago.
Decided to look back at prospect Jay Bruce. It’s true, as a first rounder with a brilliant year and a half age-20 and 21 season in the minors, he was considered the game’s top hitting prospect. I think today’s projections would look a little more skeptically at him, based on K/BB numbers. Given all of that, at the end of the day JB has been something of a bust. Career: .248 / .318 / .467.
The Royals and Mets could make a deal. Knowing that getting Conforto is not an option, the Royals could perhaps entice the Mets with a near-MLB-ready pitcher (Erik Skoglund, maybe) for Bruce, who could fulfill KC’s search for an everyday DH or as a left/right platoon in right field with Hunter Dozier.
Funny, I was thinking of Conforto in a package with say Lagares and Wheeler for Cain…(I’m now ducking from whatever object you are about to throw at me).
Certainly not on Conforto + anything else for Cain. Maybe I’d think about Conforto for Cain straight up, but I’d probably say no to that if I’m the Mets. Not because Cain isn’t a better player (he is), but you only get 1 year of him vs 5 years of Conforto. No dice.
That’s way, way too much for Cain. He’s great and all but he’s 32 and is a free agent after the season. I wouldn’t trade Conforto for Cain straight up, much less throw in Lagares and Wheeler.
Lorenzo Cain is 30 and turns 31 when the ’17 season begins (4/13).
I love Cain but the Mets aren’t giving up 5 yrs of control on Scooter for 1 yr of Cain. A year from now they can sign him as a FA.
Completely forgot about Cain being a FA after 2017. Brain burp on a late-night post, no way that flies.
A Granderson-Lagares CF platoon is workable for this year. Bruce has to go, but there’s little need to trade a young bat like Conforto. He just needs to play. Granderson can still play some rf and you sit Conforto vs the tougher lefties in the league. And, there’s no reason Cespedes still can’t play a little CF maybe 4-5 times a month, and you play Granderson and Conforto in the corners on those days.
Good comment. A Granderson/Lagares platoon in CF is likely to be one of the most productive in the league.
However, Cespedes sucks at CF and is superlative in LF, and he has said CF is hard on his knees. I really see absolutely no reason to ever play him again in CF unless Granderson, Lagares, Conforto, Nimmo, and Ruggiano are all simultaneously hurt and we are down to something like Cespedes/Bruce/Ty Kelly as our OF depth chart
Also, this column fails to note that Conforto started to learn to play a little CF there, and looked surprisingly good in a very short trial. Push comes to shove, if Granderson is really regarded as totally inadequate in CF (seems dubious to me, but OK), then we could always run a Cespedes/Conforto/Granderson alignment, assuming Bruce is traded. I’d still keep Bruce in that case, as I would rather claw my eyes out in horror than experience another year of James Loney at 1B if Duda gets hurt again or hasn’t fully recovered by spring. We don’t really know what we’ll get from him or Wright, so I think people are assuming the Mets have a lot more offensive depth than is really the case.
Knockdown arguments for keeping Jay Bruce, and waiting a month or two before promoting Conforto to the major league level all year.
1. Conforto has 1.043 days of service time entering 2017, his age 24 season. Suppose he starts the season on the MLB roster. Then he becomes a free agent in 5 years, after his age 28 season. On the other hand, if Conforto spends 6 weeks in the minors (roughly), and is promoted by the end of May, the Mets get his age 29 season too. They effectively buy out an extra free agent year of Conforto, in his prime, for 6 weeks of his age 24 season.. If Conforto really is as good as many people in this thread think he is (including myself), then it’s an absolute no-brainer to have Conforto spend 6 weeks of his age 24 season in AAA, a level where he’s played only 33 professional games, in order to receive 6 months of his age 29 season in return.
2. If I had to guess, I’d expect Bruce to have a higher WAR than Conforto in ’17. Why? First of all, Bruce handily out-hit Conforto in ’16. Fangraphs has Conforto as having a 96 wRC+ in ’16, and gives Bruce a 111 wRC+ for the year (124 before the trade, a tie for his career high.) Baseball Reference shows 92 vs 112, advantage Bruce. So no question about it, Bruce was the better hitter last year. Bruce was awful in ’14 and ’15, putting a putrid 79 and 92 wRC+ respectively, but before that had 4 straight seasons in which he put up a wRC+ of roughly 120, which was pretty much his level of play prior to the trade, going 124/119/120/117 over those 4 seasons. (Early projections you see now don’t take this into account; they are quick and dirty projections that ignore everything beyond 3 seasons, which is not justifiable on any basis besides convenience.) The most likely outcome for Bruce is that he will hit around his 115-120 wRC+ norm that he hit consistently for ’16, 13, ’12, ’11, and ’10. It’s extremely unlikely Conforto hits that well right away without any add’l development time, while Bruce could plausibly hit 40 homers next year. Bruce is not really that terrible of a defender; he’s above average for his career, (+2 UZR/150), and people are strongly overvaluing the most recent data of -8 in ’16. Most likely is that plays around his career averages, rather than his worst defensive season, which looks like an anomaly. When we know how noisy defensive numbers are, it’s best to go with the more complete data. It’s thus quite reasonable to expect Bruce to have a 115-120 or so WRC+ (he had a 112 WRC last year even despite the horrendous end of year slump) and play slightly above average defense, which should make him at least a 3 win player. Certainly not a guy who should be traded for nothing.
3. If Conforto plays all year in the majors, he will inevitably be platooned, stunting his development, since Lagares needs to start vs Lefties, and Granderson is a much better bat vs Lefties at this point. . Collins has given him only 68 PA vs Lefties over the better part of 2 seasons, with a 191/.145/.336 line. He only has 212 PA vs lefties in the minors, and only has 166 career minor league games (he signed extremely late in 2014, and was in the majors by midseason of 2015, skipping AAA.) Conforto is capable of being a star player in another 1-2 years, has shown signs of developing against lefties when given consistent playing time against them. We need to get him everyday at bats, not platoon at bats, for at least the first 1/3 -1/2 of the season, so that when he comes up for good, Collins will realize he has to play him every day.
4. Conforto has only 33 games of AAA experience, and 45 games at AA. It’s not like he’s being asked to repeat a level He has only 1/2 season of upper-level minor league experience in total. He was a below average MLB bat last year after showing promise of being much more in 2015, and clearly regressed offensively, showing reduced power and a much greater strikeout rate (ballooning from 20.1 percent in ’15 to 25.6 percent in ’16, both much higher rates than he showed in the minor leagues.) He cut the strikeout numbers significantly in his month in AAA, increased his power, and showed the capacity to hit lefties hard for the first time in his professional career. Still, this is only a month, and he should be given time to keep developing the skills he showed there to improve his long-term ceiling.
5. Conforto has essentially only played LF in his professional career, aside from 11 starts each last year in CF and in RF, split between AAA/MLB. We know that he is never going to play LF for the Mets, unless Cespedes suddenly decides he’s willing to play RF, which is doubtful. Both the numbers and my eyes showed that Conforto looked surprisingly adept in his very brief CF trial last season, and he looked to have the arm to play a strong RF from what I saw. He should be given every opportunity to develop into an MLB CF based on the early returns, and the only way for that to realistically happen is to give him a half season of CF experience in AAA first. I’d be more willing to accept the “trade Bruce for anything” stampede if the plan was to give Conforto the chance to play everyday in CF, but this doesn’t seem wise until we can get him some minor league experience in center. Even if you don’t buy Conforto as a CF whatsoever, it would still behoove the Mets to get him some reps in RF in the minors as well before declaring him our starting RF, and trading away our depth at the position, when h has only played RF 11 times in 3 professional seasons.
6. If we trade Bruce, we have no depth at all at 1B for the inevitable Lucas Duda injury. If I have to watch James Loney play 1B for the Mets ever again, I might claw my eyes out.
7. Jay Bruce was once the best prospect in baseball coming up. He was a hell of a lot better than Conforto in the minors, and has better offensive tools. Guy has loads of unfulfilled talent. Do not sell low on this dude.
At the very least, you’d be nuts to give Bruce away for free. You don’t just quote guys last year, or the last 3 years, because he struggled in 2 of those 3 years. To do a fair analysis, you look at the context of the guy’s entire career. Bruce’s career shows that you don’t just give him away because he’s only had 1 WAR in the last 3 seasons. He’s a guy entering his prime, age 30 season, has produced 17.5 WAR over roughly 7.5 seasons worth of at bats, meaning its perfectly reasonable to expect him to be a 2-3 win player, or approach his career highs of 4-5 wins if he has a career year.
Keep Jay Bruce!
You could have just said the last 3 words of your comment.
We need to resist the herd groupthink. A few too many guys taking steamer projections as holy gospel
Delmon Young was also once the best prospect in baseball coming up. He was a hell of a lot better than Conforto in the minors, and has better offensive tools. Guy has loads of unfulfilled talent, and is only 1 1/2 years older than Bruce. Do not sell low on this dude….er ok, even I can’t continue a snarky analogy when it’s to Delmon Young (my apologies to Jay Bruce).
Though it would still be better to put out an APB for Young than to play James Loney for any reason whatsoever.
What is Delmon Young doing these days? Let’s sign him to a miLB deal, we need some righty OF platoon bats. Personally, I’d bring back Justin Ruggiano for that role, though.
I mean, I do get that Jay Bruce isn’t the greatest, but if we have to eat salary to trade him, or if we get nothing of value in return, I’d keep him. At the least, he buys you a little development time for Conforto, a decent shot that he returns to his career average 3 WAR production and perhaps significantly more, as well as depth on a team where nearly every offensive player suffered significant injuries– D’Arnaud, Duda, Flores, Walker, Cabrera, Wright, Lagares, Cespedes are all returning from injuries, many season-ending.
If you can get something of value by trading him, and clear a spot for Conforto to play every day, that’s fine. But if the proposal is “getting rid of MOST of his salary and getting a non-prospect in return”, there’s really no reason to do that. Maybe you trade him for another equivalent salary guy like David Robertson or someone like that. I doubt Sandy is going to give him away for free or eat salary when he just picked up the option 2 weeks ago, though sometimes Alderson does make some pretty bad giveaways at times (Justin Turner, Collin McHugh, Daniel Murphy, Angel Pagan, Dario Alvarez, etc.)
Jay Peterman: “Well that certainly was a lot of words.”
Seems like the natural trading partner is the Red Sox, who have an outfield full of center fielders. No way the Sox are going to move Betts or Benentendi, but JBJ could be had. The Sox want a power pitcher and can afford to eat Bruce’s salary, so maybe that’s the match. JBJ and one of the three starters they would move — Pomeranz, Bucholtz, or Wright — for Harvey and Bruce.
As a Red Sox fan, I’m a huge fan of JBJ, I’m a little leery of Bruce, and Harvey would be hard to root for (seems like a jerk). That said, I think this could be a win-win deal, with Bruce being a decent fit for LF (Benintendi sliding over to CF or RF) and Harvey challenging for the #1 slot. And the Mets get a big boost for their OF defense – in fact, if you put in Lagares as a defensive sub you can slide JBJ to RF due to his stronger arm.
What about Conforto for Kiermaier, straight up?
I can’t see the Pirates dealing McCutchen like that…
Should Lucas Duda really be blocking anyone at this point? Yes 2014 and 2015 were nice years, but they were more good than great and he now has 2604 PA over 7 years with a .345 wOBA ranks 23rd among all 1B with at least 1500 PA.. He has accumulated 5.9 WAR over those 7 years (2010-2016) which ranks 25th among all 1B with at least 1500 PA. He’s a 31 yo with a bad back, a middling track record and a likely ~$7M salary once he goes through arbitration. (Of course, the Mets could still non-tender him for another couple days before the 12/2 deadline.)
I’ve also been wondering if the Mets are going to tender Duda coming off that injury. They didn’t even play him in the Wild Card game, he missed almost the whole season, wasn’t exactly all-world before that. You might non-tender him and try to re-sign him on a minor league deal or incentives for playing time if you can still do that under the new CBA. Bruce could then shift to 1B, Conforto to CF, Granderson to RF, or Granderson in CF and Conforto in RF, more plausibly.
First, the Mets aren’t selling low on Conforto. Second, they need to have cheap productive talent now to offset the big payroll items on the roster.
Having said the above, if the return is someone also controllable at least 3 yrs like Wil Myers, you’d have to keep an open mind. Not sure how many actually fall into this category that would tempt the Mets.
In my view, a lot of it depends on the trade interest for these guys. They should put out feelers for Conforto, Bruce, Granderson, and Duda. If teams are showing very little interest in Bruce but they’ll give up a decent prospect for Granderson, then trade Granderson. If they would get comparable returns, then maybe you keep Granderson and trade Bruce.
If it turns out that a team thinks highly of Duda, you get rid of him and see if Bruce or Conforto can hack it at 1B (and obviously you get a RH 1B with a steady glove as a fallback option).
If there’s no interest in any of those guys, so you would have to eat some money and get nothing in return, then you see if a team would take on Conforto as if he’s still has a bright future (but you absolutely don’t sell low, if the return is based on last year’s performance).
It’s easy to say “trade this guy, and keep that guy” but we can’t make that decision without knowing their trade markets.
Has, has, has to be Bruce playing 1B in the trading Duda/Duda breaks his back again scenario. Bruce is a natural guy to move to 1B, tall lefty thrower, has lost some speed in the OF, bad knees, etc, It’d be nuts to move Conforto to 1B at age 24 when he’s shown nothing but signs of being an excellent defensive outfielder and even held his own in CF for a few games last year. Conforto needs to be getting lots of reps at CF and RF which he has barely played before a few games at the end of last year in AAA/MLB, not playing 1B
Sure, Conforto for Grichuk makes sense for the Mets, but what would the Cardinals get out of such a deal? They’d simply be swapping one young outfielder for another, and while Conforto has one more year of team control, Grichuk is currently the better player. Plus, it would deprive the Cardinals of their Plan B to stick Grichuk back in center if they can’t land the defensive center field upgrade they want.