Erik Williams, Ron Chenoy, Brett Davis-Imagn Images
The trade deadline is nearing, and while we’ve had some recent activity — Josh Nayloris a Mariner! Ryan McMahon and Amed Rosarioare Yankees! — the general environment can be best described as “peaceful.” If this is anything like past years, however, that’s about to change as teams face up to their Artificially Designed Roster Construction Deadline anxiety. And while we don’t know exactly what will happen — and if you do, you should probably use that time machine for purposes better fit to benefit humanity — it doesn’t mean that we can’t do some fantasy tradecrafting. Asusual, I’ve conjured up some possible trade scenarios, trying to construct packages that are at least within the realm of plausibility. So get out your Hugwatch foam finger, read along, and maybe add your own ideas in the comments section!
For each player in the high minors or the major leagues, I’ve included their post-2025 projections while under contract — you can find their rest-of-2025 projections on their player pages.
The Philadelphia Phillies acquire 3B Eugenio Suárez from the Arizona Diamondbacks for OF Justin Crawford, P Jean Cabrera, and 1B Keaton Anthony
Alec Bohm is out with a fractured rib until at least mid-August, well after the trade deadline, but even after his eventual return, Eugenio Suárez represents a real short-term upgrade. Some thump is more than welcome, as the Phillies are currently 13th in the majors in homers, easily their lowest ranking since emerging as a legitimate contender in 2022. I’m skeptical about Suárez over the long haul given his age and up-and-down career path, but two months is a short sprint, and Philadelphia’s core isn’t getting any younger. Otto Kemp is a nice enough fill-in, but he’s more of a solid utility infielder, and is stretched as a starter.
Justin Crawford was one of the big movers in the ZiPS projections compared to the preseason, and I’m more bullish on him than the 40+ FV next to his name on The Board. Frankly, I like him enough that I would do this trade straight up if I were the Diamondbacks, but I think the Phillies, who have an aging core and still want that World Series trophy, would give up more than just Crawford. Jean Cabrera and Keaton Anthony are lesser prospects, of course, but they’re lesser prospects who are fairly close to contributing in the majors if they develop well, which I think ought to be a priority for Arizona, an organization that appears to be more interested in retooling than undergoing a full teardown.
ZiPS Projection – Justin Crawford
Year
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2026
.296
.343
.402
503
79
149
26
6
5
57
36
109
30
107
2.8
2027
.291
.340
.391
519
82
151
27
5
5
59
38
108
30
104
2.7
2028
.290
.342
.397
527
85
153
28
5
6
60
40
107
30
105
2.8
2029
.286
.339
.392
528
84
151
28
5
6
60
41
104
30
103
2.7
2030
.284
.339
.392
518
83
147
28
5
6
59
42
100
28
103
2.6
2031
.282
.338
.392
500
80
141
27
5
6
57
41
94
26
103
2.5
ZiPS Projection – Jean Cabrera
Year
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
ERA+
WAR
2026
5
5
4.51
21
20
105.7
110
53
13
45
76
92
0.8
2027
5
5
4.28
20
19
103.0
103
49
11
41
75
97
1.0
2028
5
5
4.07
20
19
104.0
102
47
10
40
76
102
1.3
2029
5
5
4.02
20
19
103.0
100
46
10
38
75
103
1.4
2030
6
4
3.89
20
19
104.0
101
45
10
38
76
106
1.4
2031
5
5
3.91
19
18
101.3
98
44
9
37
73
106
1.4
ZiPS Projection – Keaton Anthony
Year
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2026
.260
.317
.361
415
41
108
25
1
5
51
29
93
0
89
0.2
2027
.263
.320
.370
419
42
110
25
1
6
52
30
93
0
92
0.4
2028
.262
.320
.370
416
42
109
25
1
6
52
30
91
0
92
0.4
2029
.261
.319
.366
306
30
80
18
1
4
38
22
66
0
91
0.2
2030
.264
.322
.373
220
22
58
13
1
3
28
16
48
0
94
0.2
2031
.253
.314
.351
154
15
39
9
0
2
19
11
33
0
85
0.0
The Chicago Cubs acquire P Nathan Eovaldi from the Texas Rangers for OF Owen Caissie and SS Cristian Hernandez
Giving up Owen Caissie is tough to swallow, as both ZiPS and I feel pretty confident that he will be a legit dude at the major league level (and I like Caissie more than ZiPS does). You don’t get real pitchers for free, however, and there just aren’t many good ones available. Nathan Eovaldi isn’t a short-term rental, and the Cubs are deep in bats. Chicago has an elite lineup “supported” by a questionable rotation; failing to get the best starter possible would be borderline malpractice. As a groundball-heavy pitcher, Eovaldi is a good fit on a team that has Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson on the middle infield.
Because of my love for Caissie and the fact that I’m also having the Cubs pick up the $59 million or so remaining on Eovaldi’s deal, I’m not inclined to add too much else to this package, which may cause Rangers fans to unfriend me (or at least, they would if I had any influence over the organization). Cristian Hernandez is pretty far down Chicago’s minor league pecking order, but he’s a solid defensive player, he’s fast, and he has a frame that seems like he could add some power as he develops. With Marcus Semien in decline and Corey Seager good for an IL stint seemingly every year, it would be useful for the Rangers to have another hedge or two for Sebastian Walcott. I would not, however, offer Moisés Ballesteros in addition to Caissie.
ZiPS Projection – Nathan Eovaldi
Year
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
ERA+
WAR
2026
9
5
3.25
23
23
130.0
117
47
14
32
118
127
2.8
2027
8
5
3.51
21
21
118.0
113
46
14
31
102
118
2.2
ZiPS Projection – Owen Caissie
Year
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2026
.239
.321
.415
494
63
118
26
2
19
75
56
187
5
107
1.7
2027
.245
.329
.431
503
66
123
27
2
21
80
59
180
5
113
2.1
2028
.249
.334
.445
510
70
127
27
2
23
83
61
176
5
118
2.5
2029
.251
.336
.452
518
72
130
28
2
24
86
62
172
4
120
2.6
2030
.251
.338
.451
521
72
131
28
2
24
88
64
168
4
121
2.7
2031
.250
.337
.449
521
72
130
28
2
24
88
65
165
4
120
2.6
ZiPS Projection – Cristian Hernandez
Year
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2026
.216
.278
.316
500
55
108
26
3
6
49
41
146
25
68
0.0
2027
.223
.286
.329
511
59
114
27
3
7
53
43
141
25
74
0.5
2028
.226
.289
.333
514
60
116
28
3
7
55
44
136
24
76
0.7
2029
.230
.292
.341
405
48
93
23
2
6
44
35
103
18
79
0.7
2030
.235
.299
.349
344
42
81
20
2
5
38
30
84
15
83
0.8
2031
.238
.303
.358
302
38
72
17
2
5
34
27
73
12
86
0.8
The New York Mets acquire P Merrill Kelly from the Arizona Diamondbacks for P Blade Tidwell and 1B Ryan Clifford
There are some questions about Blade Tidwell’s command, but I think his upside makes him interesting enough to be worth acquiring in a Merrill Kelly trade. I’ve already given the Diamondbacks another outfielder, and I personally think the Mets should be leery about sending Jacob Reimer in a theoretical Kelly deal, but I think Ryan Clifford has enough promise to give Arizona a solid enough starting first baseman; Pavin Smith isn’t the definite solution there and feels more at home as the DH.
Kelly’s no superstar, but he’s one of the few Diamondbacks starters who is overachieving this season, and I think he shores up the Mets’ rotation for the homestretch.
ZiPS Projection – Ryan Clifford
Year
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2026
.213
.313
.398
488
55
104
25
1
21
72
67
175
3
97
0.6
2027
.220
.320
.413
501
59
110
26
1
23
78
70
170
3
103
1.1
2028
.226
.326
.424
509
62
115
27
1
24
82
72
165
3
107
1.6
2029
.235
.336
.445
515
65
121
28
1
26
86
75
160
3
116
2.2
2030
.238
.340
.446
522
67
124
29
1
26
88
78
157
2
117
2.4
2031
.238
.342
.445
526
67
125
29
1
26
89
80
155
2
117
2.4
ZiPS Projection – Blade Tidwell
Year
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
ERA+
WAR
2026
8
7
4.20
25
20
113.7
110
53
13
51
100
99
1.2
2027
8
6
4.00
23
18
108.0
103
48
12
45
94
104
1.3
2028
7
6
3.91
22
17
106.0
99
46
11
43
93
106
1.5
2029
7
6
3.83
21
16
103.3
96
44
10
40
89
108
1.5
2030
8
5
3.82
21
16
103.7
96
44
10
40
89
108
1.5
2031
7
6
3.84
20
15
100.7
94
43
10
39
85
108
1.5
The Tampa Bay Rays acquire C Sean Murphy from the Atlanta Braves for 1B Xavier Isaac, OF Colton Ledbetter, and P Gary Gill Hill
Drake Baldwin has rendered Sean Murphy practically redundant, making the latter surprisingly tradeable for the Braves as they look towards the future. To that end, Atlanta has a bit of a shopping list: minor league pitching depth, a bat to replace Marcell Ozuna, who is a free agent at the end of the season, and a candidate to start in left field so that the Braves don’t have to leave the position open for auditions in the spring, as they have recently. Gary Gill Hill, Xavier Isaac, and possibly Colton Ledbetter may be able to meet those needs.
The Rays give up value, but they also keep their prizes; I’m not even considering sending Carson Williams in this swap. Murphy has proven he can still be a top-notch catcher and he’s a big upgrade for the Rays here. Picking up the very reasonable three years and $45 million left on Murphy’s contract would also allow the team’s new owners to give a hint that they won’t be quite as thrifty as the current regime without really spending a large amount of money.
ZiPS Projection – Sean Murphy
Year
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2026
.230
.320
.443
343
42
79
16
0
19
52
36
102
0
112
3.0
2027
.224
.313
.426
326
38
73
15
0
17
47
34
98
0
105
2.5
2028
.217
.308
.401
304
34
66
14
0
14
42
32
94
0
98
1.9
ZiPS Projection – Xavier Isaac
Year
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2026
.215
.313
.398
339
45
73
16
2
14
53
44
142
4
95
0.5
2027
.225
.322
.419
356
49
80
17
2
16
59
47
142
4
103
1.0
2028
.228
.326
.424
373
52
85
18
2
17
65
50
141
4
105
1.2
2029
.235
.334
.440
391
57
92
19
2
19
70
53
142
4
112
1.7
2030
.238
.339
.446
404
60
96
20
2
20
74
57
143
4
115
1.9
2031
.240
.342
.448
413
63
99
21
1
21
77
59
142
4
116
2.0
ZiPS Projection – Colton Ledbetter
Year
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2026
.237
.295
.366
435
55
103
21
4
9
57
33
150
18
81
0.7
2027
.242
.300
.376
442
58
107
21
4
10
60
34
145
19
86
0.9
2028
.244
.304
.382
442
60
108
22
3
11
62
35
140
19
88
1.1
2029
.246
.306
.383
407
55
100
20
3
10
58
33
125
17
89
1.0
2030
.248
.308
.394
371
51
92
18
3
10
53
30
112
15
92
1.1
2031
.245
.307
.388
330
45
81
16
2
9
47
27
99
13
91
0.9
ZiPS Projection – Gary Gill Hill
Year
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
ERA+
WAR
2026
4
4
4.52
22
21
99.7
108
50
13
37
64
92
0.7
2027
4
4
4.19
22
21
103.0
107
48
12
37
65
99
1.1
2028
5
3
4.04
22
21
107.0
107
48
11
37
69
103
1.4
2029
5
4
3.89
22
21
108.7
106
47
10
36
70
106
1.6
2030
5
4
3.72
22
21
111.3
106
46
10
35
73
111
1.7
2031
5
4
3.65
22
21
111.0
104
45
9
34
74
114
1.8
The San Diego Padres acquire 1B/DH Ryan O’Hearn from the Baltimore Orioles for pitchers Bradgley Rodriguez, Bryan Balzer, and Jagger Haynes
Ryan O’Hearn is having a very nice season for the Orioles and has been a highlight for the team, one that I didn’t see coming at all when they purchased his contract from the Royals a few years ago. The fact remains, however, that he has little defensive value and hits free agency in two months. As such, I couldn’t in good faith give any top prospects to the Orioles; if J.D. Martinez didn’t land any back in 2017, I don’t think the Orioles are going to this year. What I did do is give the Orioles a couple arms in Bradgley Rodriguez and Jagger Haynes who could actually contribute over the next few seasons. Bryan Balzer is much farther away, but unless the Orioles decide to spend aggressively on pitching in free agency, which I doubt, they need to find other ways to get interesting arms into the system wherever they can.
ZiPS Projection – Bradgley Rodriguez
Year
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
ERA+
WAR
2026
3
3
4.03
49
0
58.0
51
26
5
22
53
99
0.1
2027
3
3
3.84
51
0
61.0
52
26
5
21
57
104
0.3
2028
4
2
3.64
52
0
64.3
54
26
5
21
60
109
0.5
2029
4
2
3.44
53
0
65.3
53
25
5
21
61
115
0.6
2030
4
2
3.51
54
0
66.7
53
26
4
20
62
113
0.6
2031
4
2
3.39
54
0
66.3
53
25
4
20
62
117
0.7
ZiPS Projection – Jagger Haynes
Year
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
ERA+
WAR
2026
3
6
5.25
22
21
96.0
101
56
13
57
70
76
-0.2
2027
4
4
4.86
22
21
96.3
97
52
11
52
72
82
0.3
2028
4
5
4.57
22
21
100.3
98
51
10
50
76
87
0.6
2029
4
5
4.34
22
21
101.7
97
49
10
47
78
92
0.9
2030
5
4
4.15
22
21
104.0
97
48
9
45
80
96
1.1
2031
5
4
4.08
22
21
103.7
96
47
9
43
81
97
1.2
The Toronto Blue Jays acquire P Edward Cabrera from the Miami Marlins for OF Alan Roden, 3B Orelvis Martinez, and OF Yohendrick Pinango
People mostly talk about Sandy Alcantara, but Edward Cabrera has quietly been Miami’s best starter this season. He has stayed healthy and has cut back on the walks, and both of his breaking pitches and his changeup are viable strike three offerings, set up with a fastball that still comfortably hits 97. There’s risk with Cabrera, certainly, but I think the Jays should be firmly in win-now mode. For their part, the Marlins are in sore need of anyone who can offer even a remote chance of providing their punchless lineup with something worthwhile in the future. I think Kyle Stowers is for real, but he needs some sidekicks. Alan Roden can hit, but it’s hard for Toronto to give him too much rope given the pennant race, and Orelvis Martinez’s poor 2025 is practically screaming “change of scenery candidate.” You might see including Yohendrick Pinango as gilding the lily, but given that the Jays get to keep Cabrera well past this season, I think it’s fair to add him to the trade.
ZiPS Projection – Edward Cabrera
Year
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
ERA+
WAR
2026
6
6
3.93
26
25
126.0
106
55
16
51
125
106
1.7
2027
6
5
3.94
25
24
118.7
100
52
15
47
115
106
1.6
2028
6
5
3.96
23
22
113.7
98
50
14
43
107
105
1.5
ZiPS Projection – Alan Roden
Year
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2026
.266
.347
.399
414
60
110
22
3
9
52
41
72
7
105
1.4
2027
.266
.349
.400
413
60
110
22
3
9
52
42
70
7
105
1.5
2028
.267
.349
.402
408
59
109
22
3
9
51
41
68
6
106
1.5
2029
.263
.346
.394
396
57
104
21
2
9
49
40
65
6
103
1.2
2030
.261
.343
.388
376
53
98
20
2
8
46
38
62
5
101
1.0
2031
.257
.338
.382
346
48
89
18
2
7
42
34
57
5
98
0.8
ZiPS Projection – Orelvis Martinez
Year
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2026
.200
.269
.374
439
49
88
20
1
18
57
36
140
1
74
-0.5
2027
.209
.277
.395
446
52
93
21
1
20
61
37
136
1
82
0.0
2028
.213
.282
.401
446
53
95
22
1
20
62
38
132
1
85
0.2
2029
.217
.287
.412
405
49
88
20
1
19
57
35
116
1
89
0.4
2030
.220
.291
.412
369
45
81
18
1
17
52
33
104
1
91
0.5
2031
.222
.292
.413
334
40
74
17
1
15
47
30
93
1
91
0.4
ZiPS Projection – Yohendrick Pinango
Year
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2026
.235
.311
.372
476
49
112
23
3
12
54
50
119
6
87
0.2
2027
.241
.318
.390
490
52
118
25
3
14
59
53
119
6
93
0.6
2028
.245
.323
.400
497
55
122
26
3
15
62
55
116
6
98
0.9
2029
.251
.328
.412
478
54
120
26
3
15
61
53
108
6
102
1.1
2030
.251
.329
.410
463
53
116
25
2
15
60
52
102
5
102
1.0
2031
.254
.332
.420
448
51
114
25
2
15
58
50
97
5
105
1.2
The Cleveland Guardians acquire IF Shay Whitcomb from the Houston Astros for 1B Ralphy Velazquez
If you’re looking for the next Addison Barger, I think Shay Whitcomb is a good candidate. Much like Barger was, Whitcomb is an older, fringy infield prospect who stat people like a lot more than scouts, and he has real upside in the right situation. Still, the Astros appear to have basically no interest in Whitcomb; when he’s been up in the majors, he’s been limited to a combination of pinch-hitting, pinch-running, and late-inning defensive work, with only scattered starts at third. If simultaneous injuries to Isaac Paredes and Jeremy Peña can’t get him an extended audition in Houston, I don’t see what would.
The Astros have struggled at first base since age caught up with Yuli Gurriel, and both of the name brand free agents brought in as solutions since — José Abreu and Christian Walker — have kinda splatted in Houston. I don’t think Cleveland would part with C.J. Kayfus for Whitcomb, but Ralphy Velazquez is more speculative; he’s still in the low minors, with promising tools and decidedly mixed results. Even if Walker bounces back, he’s only signed through 2027, so Velazquez developing into a big leaguer is unlikely to cause any kind of position controversy.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
I might just be being crazy — I like to have at least one crazy trade — but the Rangers offense just feels so meh to me that I think swapping a pitcher for a similar bat (as I note, I love Caissie) that they should still do it. I probably should have directly addresse dthis though.
I also removed another Rangers trade (MacKenzie Gore for pitching prospects) because I was running long and had to cut a few and it didn’t dawn on my dumb brain that until the thread that it kinda unravels this trade)
Why would the Rangers sell Eovaldi when they’re tied for the third wild card and have the 2nd best run differential in the AL?
I might just be being crazy — I like to have at least one crazy trade — but the Rangers offense just feels so meh to me that I think swapping a pitcher for a similar bat (as I note, I love Caissie) that they should still do it. I probably should have directly addresse dthis though.
Not feeling the Keller/Caissie vibes?
I also removed another Rangers trade (MacKenzie Gore for pitching prospects) because I was running long and had to cut a few and it didn’t dawn on my dumb brain that until the thread that it kinda unravels this trade)