Let’s Make Some Deals: 2023 Trade Deadline Edition

With less than a week to go until the trade deadline, things have been relatively quiet on the transaction front, possibly due to the uncertainty surrounding Shohei Ohtani’s availability. But now that an Ohtani trade is off the table, I think we can expect things to really start moving in the next day or so. That makes this the perfect time for one of my favorite/most dreaded pieces of the year, in which I kick things off with some trade imagineering that hopefully doesn’t result in too many people being mad at me. Not all of these deals would necessarily be accepted if they were offered as-is — teams value players differently, after all — nor am I reporting on actual trades that are in the works. But I tried to make sure that each of these deals was plausible and actually met the needs of the teams in question. Let’s get to it!

The Philadelphia Phillies acquire 1B Paul Goldschmidt from the St. Louis Cardinals for OF Johan Rojas, SS Hao-Yu Lee, and OF Carlos De La Cruz

Right now, the Phillies are hoping to get Rhys Hoskins, who is a free agent at the end of the season, back for a playoff run. But rather than pin their postseason dreams on a guy coming off a significant injury, why not simply get a plug-and-play first baseman who is signed through 2024? If Hoskins turns out to be healthy for the playoffs, the Phillies will have an extra pinch-hitter ready for situational duty. But if they trade for Goldschmidt, it would solidify first base while also allowing them to put Bryce Harper back at DH most games. That would leave Kyle Schwarber and the heavily slumping Nick Castellanos to fight for playing time once Cristian Pache returns from his elbow injury (assuming he picks up where he left off). The Phillies are ninth in the NL in runs scored and with a fairly set lineup, there just aren’t a lot of places to add significant run production. Goldschmidt is about as good as you can do at the deadline this year.

On the other side, Rojas gives the Cardinals some of what they lost when Harrison Bader was sent to the Yankees, while Lee could eventually end up playing second base for the Red Birds. Lastly, De La Cruz is a highly intriguing bat who is kind of blocked in Philadelphia at the moment.

The Baltimore Orioles acquire P Dylan Cease from the Chicago White Sox for INF Jordan Westburg, CF Jud Fabian, SS Joey Ortiz, and P Justin Armbruester

The Orioles have churned out an impressive assortment of hitting prospects the last few years, but the farm system hasn’t been able to come up with starting pitching anywhere near as well. Even assuming that Grayson Rodriguez works out, the Orioles likely need more rotation help and it’s probably going to have to come from outside the organization. That might mean trading away some of their young hitters and watching them succeed elsewhere. The team is contending, but I don’t think the front office is suddenly full of wild gamblers, so I doubt we’ll start seeing names like Coby Mayo or Heston Kjerstad move for short-term rentals.

Dylan Cease, however, is not a short-term rental; the Orioles would get to keep him until the end of the 2025 season. This may be blasphemy to some, but given their respective contract situations, I’d happily give up more for Cease than I would for Ohtani. Westburg’s stock has shot up this year, and with ZiPS seeing him as an above-average starter in the majors right now, the White Sox could reap the benefits of having him on the team very quickly. Since Cease represents significant value, the Pale Hose are going to need to offer more than just Westburg, so I included two interesting offensive prospects in Fabian and Ortiz who could help shore up the organization’s lackluster depth. I also included Armbruester, a little talked-about pitching prospect who probably has a good shot at fitting in the back of the rotation in the not-too-distant future.

The big question is just how available Cease actually is. The White Sox are a mess at the moment, but they’ve given every indication that they think they’ll be contenders in 2024. That might make it difficult to get them to part with Cease without a ridiculously lopsided offer. I don’t think the Orioles would go that far, but it’s certainly worth asking.

The Los Angeles Angels acquire OF Cody Bellinger and P Marcus Stroman from the Chicago Cubs for P Jack Kochanowicz, SS Kyren Paris, and P Sam Bachman

Après Ohtani, le déluge. Ohtani is finishing the season in Anaheim, and while we’ve talked a lot about theoretical Ohtani trades, we haven’t really discussed what the Angels should do if they’re buyers instead of sellers. Since they’ve decided to keep Ohtani, it doesn’t make sense to just shuffle around where they are; if you’re pushing in your chips, push in all your damn chips. The Angels already picked up Lucas Giolito from the Sox, but that might not be enough given their position in the playoff race. Stroman and Bellinger are both short-term rentals, at least if Stroman opts out of the final year of his deal, which is almost certainly the right move from his perspective. If I were the Angels, I’d give up even more than this — I initially had them giving up Edgar Quero as the centerpiece, but they already traded him for Giolito. I’d even be open to including a different pitcher if the Cubs were worried about Bachman’s shoulder.

The Cincinnati Reds acquire P Eduardo Rodriguez from the Detroit Tigers for P Brandon Williamson, CF Michael Siani, and P Carson Spiers

The NL Central is ripe for the taking, and the Reds really could use a starting pitcher to help secure a division crown. (I originally sent Giolito to Cincinnati, but trades wait for no man… to finish writing his piece.) I don’t expect the Reds to give up the house for anyone — productive minor leaguers are basically a necessity if the team is going to be a basement-tier spender. But I don’t think the Tigers will get a haul for E-Rod, as he’s almost guaranteed to hit free agency via his opt-out — he’ll easily beat the three years and $49 million remaining on his current deal — and carries heightened injury risk. Maybe this isn’t enough to tempt the Tigers, but I’d certainly try to offer a package like this first. I’d be open to talking about Chase Petty or Christian Encarnacion-Strand if I absolutely have to.

The San Francisco Giants acquire P Jordan Montgomery and SS Paul DeJong from the St. Louis Cardinals for P Landen Roupp and P Keaton Winn

My goal here was to improve the Giants without making a trade that requires them to give up Kyle Harrison, Luis Matos, or Marco Luciano, as I don’t think they’d do that except in extreme circumstances. The rotation hasn’t been great after Logan Webb and Alex Cobb, and as the Giants have very good playoff odds, another dependable arm in the rotation is a must. They can choose from the also-rans situationally when a fourth starter is needed in a potential playoff series. I like Casey Schmitt, but his aggression at the plate has been taken advantage of by pitchers, and Brandon Crawford, while better, is well past his peak. It may have gone unnoticed given St. Louis’ extremely disappointing season, but DeJong has put up a nice little season. He’s on track for 20 homers and is no longer looking up longingly at the Mendoza line. Roupp has a clear path to the rotation in St. Louis in 2024 (the team needs starters), and Winn offers some flexibility in his usage. That Winn is a fastball/splitter pitcher with no impressive breaking pitch doesn’t even doom him to the bullpen; Kevin Gausman has shown that success can happen with that profile. Both these prospects have fairly high floors without big ceilings, and that’s usually right up the Cards’ alley.

The Minnesota Twins acquire P Josh Hader from the San Diego Padres for P Marco Raya and P Brent Headrick

The projections still give the Padres a fighting chance at the playoffs, but I think we’re approaching the threshold where San Diego tries to retool a bit and trade off talent that isn’t signed for 2024. This is a seller’s market, and given the state of the Padres farm system, the lure of getting some prospects back has to be real. I don’t think the Twins will make a huge move, at least in part because of the big league success the prospects they traded to the Reds and Orioles last year have experienced, but our depth charts (and ZiPS on its own) see the Twins as having one of the weakest and shallowest bullpens among the contending teams. And there isn’t likely to be anyone better than Hader available.

The Milwaukee Brewers acquire 3B Jeimer Candelario from the Washington Nationals for 2B Robert Moore and SS Freddy Zamora

I can’t imagine that the Brewers will stand completely pat given their precarious lead in the NL Central, but I suspect they aren’t in the mix for the best players available at the deadline. The team is 13th in the NL in runs scored, so they need to add offense fast, and Candelario’s a solid bat to plug into the middle of the order for two months. Third base has been one of the lineup’s (many) weak spots. Brian Anderson has been fairly mediocre this season and is currently on the injured list, while Luis Urías, previously one of the team’s unsung heroes, missed time with an injury to start the season and then played such bad baseball upon his return that he ended up back in Triple-A. Urías has hit better of late in the minors, but I don’t think the Brewers should be putting all their eggs in that basket with such little time left to find another plan. Plus, even if Urías storms back to the majors, the Brew Crew have been awful at first base and designated hitter, too.

The Tampa Bay Rays acquire P Kyle Finnegan from the Washington Nationals for SS Greg Jones

While Hader would be a lot of fun on the Rays, Tampa Bay tends to go the quieter route. The Rays bullpen has been unusually shallow (for them) this year, and while Finnegan has been merely middling for the Nats, his stuff is better than his strikeout rate suggests, with a plus fastball and splitter to go with a decent slider. This is an organization that has a knack for squeezing performance out of underperforming pitchers with raw tools, and I think they could do similarly with Finnegan, who isn’t a free agent until after 2025. Jones is blocked at shortstop by a Wanderwall, and the Nats are in the stage of their rebuild where they should be grabbing as much raw talent as they can, regardless of position.

Have your own trade you want to get people mad about? Jump into the comments!