Let’s Make Some Deals: 2023 Trade Deadline Edition
With less than a week to go until the trade deadline, things have been relatively quiet on the transaction front, possibly due to the uncertainty surrounding Shohei Ohtani’s availability. But now that an Ohtani trade is off the table, I think we can expect things to really start moving in the next day or so. That makes this the perfect time for one of my favorite/most dreaded pieces of the year, in which I kick things off with some trade imagineering that hopefully doesn’t result in too many people being mad at me. Not all of these deals would necessarily be accepted if they were offered as-is — teams value players differently, after all — nor am I reporting on actual trades that are in the works. But I tried to make sure that each of these deals was plausible and actually met the needs of the teams in question. Let’s get to it!
The Philadelphia Phillies acquire 1B Paul Goldschmidt from the St. Louis Cardinals for OF Johan Rojas, SS Hao-Yu Lee, and OF Carlos De La Cruz
Right now, the Phillies are hoping to get Rhys Hoskins, who is a free agent at the end of the season, back for a playoff run. But rather than pin their postseason dreams on a guy coming off a significant injury, why not simply get a plug-and-play first baseman who is signed through 2024? If Hoskins turns out to be healthy for the playoffs, the Phillies will have an extra pinch-hitter ready for situational duty. But if they trade for Goldschmidt, it would solidify first base while also allowing them to put Bryce Harper back at DH most games. That would leave Kyle Schwarber and the heavily slumping Nick Castellanos to fight for playing time once Cristian Pache returns from his elbow injury (assuming he picks up where he left off). The Phillies are ninth in the NL in runs scored and with a fairly set lineup, there just aren’t a lot of places to add significant run production. Goldschmidt is about as good as you can do at the deadline this year.
On the other side, Rojas gives the Cardinals some of what they lost when Harrison Bader was sent to the Yankees, while Lee could eventually end up playing second base for the Red Birds. Lastly, De La Cruz is a highly intriguing bat who is kind of blocked in Philadelphia at the moment.
The Baltimore Orioles acquire P Dylan Cease from the Chicago White Sox for INF Jordan Westburg, CF Jud Fabian, SS Joey Ortiz, and P Justin Armbruester
The Orioles have churned out an impressive assortment of hitting prospects the last few years, but the farm system hasn’t been able to come up with starting pitching anywhere near as well. Even assuming that Grayson Rodriguez works out, the Orioles likely need more rotation help and it’s probably going to have to come from outside the organization. That might mean trading away some of their young hitters and watching them succeed elsewhere. The team is contending, but I don’t think the front office is suddenly full of wild gamblers, so I doubt we’ll start seeing names like Coby Mayo or Heston Kjerstad move for short-term rentals.
Dylan Cease, however, is not a short-term rental; the Orioles would get to keep him until the end of the 2025 season. This may be blasphemy to some, but given their respective contract situations, I’d happily give up more for Cease than I would for Ohtani. Westburg’s stock has shot up this year, and with ZiPS seeing him as an above-average starter in the majors right now, the White Sox could reap the benefits of having him on the team very quickly. Since Cease represents significant value, the Pale Hose are going to need to offer more than just Westburg, so I included two interesting offensive prospects in Fabian and Ortiz who could help shore up the organization’s lackluster depth. I also included Armbruester, a little talked-about pitching prospect who probably has a good shot at fitting in the back of the rotation in the not-too-distant future.
The big question is just how available Cease actually is. The White Sox are a mess at the moment, but they’ve given every indication that they think they’ll be contenders in 2024. That might make it difficult to get them to part with Cease without a ridiculously lopsided offer. I don’t think the Orioles would go that far, but it’s certainly worth asking.
The Los Angeles Angels acquire OF Cody Bellinger and P Marcus Stroman from the Chicago Cubs for P Jack Kochanowicz, SS Kyren Paris, and P Sam Bachman
Après Ohtani, le déluge. Ohtani is finishing the season in Anaheim, and while we’ve talked a lot about theoretical Ohtani trades, we haven’t really discussed what the Angels should do if they’re buyers instead of sellers. Since they’ve decided to keep Ohtani, it doesn’t make sense to just shuffle around where they are; if you’re pushing in your chips, push in all your damn chips. The Angels already picked up Lucas Giolito from the Sox, but that might not be enough given their position in the playoff race. Stroman and Bellinger are both short-term rentals, at least if Stroman opts out of the final year of his deal, which is almost certainly the right move from his perspective. If I were the Angels, I’d give up even more than this — I initially had them giving up Edgar Quero as the centerpiece, but they already traded him for Giolito. I’d even be open to including a different pitcher if the Cubs were worried about Bachman’s shoulder.
The Cincinnati Reds acquire P Eduardo Rodriguez from the Detroit Tigers for P Brandon Williamson, CF Michael Siani, and P Carson Spiers
The NL Central is ripe for the taking, and the Reds really could use a starting pitcher to help secure a division crown. (I originally sent Giolito to Cincinnati, but trades wait for no man… to finish writing his piece.) I don’t expect the Reds to give up the house for anyone — productive minor leaguers are basically a necessity if the team is going to be a basement-tier spender. But I don’t think the Tigers will get a haul for E-Rod, as he’s almost guaranteed to hit free agency via his opt-out — he’ll easily beat the three years and $49 million remaining on his current deal — and carries heightened injury risk. Maybe this isn’t enough to tempt the Tigers, but I’d certainly try to offer a package like this first. I’d be open to talking about Chase Petty or Christian Encarnacion-Strand if I absolutely have to.
The San Francisco Giants acquire P Jordan Montgomery and SS Paul DeJong from the St. Louis Cardinals for P Landen Roupp and P Keaton Winn
My goal here was to improve the Giants without making a trade that requires them to give up Kyle Harrison, Luis Matos, or Marco Luciano, as I don’t think they’d do that except in extreme circumstances. The rotation hasn’t been great after Logan Webb and Alex Cobb, and as the Giants have very good playoff odds, another dependable arm in the rotation is a must. They can choose from the also-rans situationally when a fourth starter is needed in a potential playoff series. I like Casey Schmitt, but his aggression at the plate has been taken advantage of by pitchers, and Brandon Crawford, while better, is well past his peak. It may have gone unnoticed given St. Louis’ extremely disappointing season, but DeJong has put up a nice little season. He’s on track for 20 homers and is no longer looking up longingly at the Mendoza line. Roupp has a clear path to the rotation in St. Louis in 2024 (the team needs starters), and Winn offers some flexibility in his usage. That Winn is a fastball/splitter pitcher with no impressive breaking pitch doesn’t even doom him to the bullpen; Kevin Gausman has shown that success can happen with that profile. Both these prospects have fairly high floors without big ceilings, and that’s usually right up the Cards’ alley.
The Minnesota Twins acquire P Josh Hader from the San Diego Padres for P Marco Raya and P Brent Headrick
The projections still give the Padres a fighting chance at the playoffs, but I think we’re approaching the threshold where San Diego tries to retool a bit and trade off talent that isn’t signed for 2024. This is a seller’s market, and given the state of the Padres farm system, the lure of getting some prospects back has to be real. I don’t think the Twins will make a huge move, at least in part because of the big league success the prospects they traded to the Reds and Orioles last year have experienced, but our depth charts (and ZiPS on its own) see the Twins as having one of the weakest and shallowest bullpens among the contending teams. And there isn’t likely to be anyone better than Hader available.
The Milwaukee Brewers acquire 3B Jeimer Candelario from the Washington Nationals for 2B Robert Moore and SS Freddy Zamora
I can’t imagine that the Brewers will stand completely pat given their precarious lead in the NL Central, but I suspect they aren’t in the mix for the best players available at the deadline. The team is 13th in the NL in runs scored, so they need to add offense fast, and Candelario’s a solid bat to plug into the middle of the order for two months. Third base has been one of the lineup’s (many) weak spots. Brian Anderson has been fairly mediocre this season and is currently on the injured list, while Luis Urías, previously one of the team’s unsung heroes, missed time with an injury to start the season and then played such bad baseball upon his return that he ended up back in Triple-A. Urías has hit better of late in the minors, but I don’t think the Brewers should be putting all their eggs in that basket with such little time left to find another plan. Plus, even if Urías storms back to the majors, the Brew Crew have been awful at first base and designated hitter, too.
The Tampa Bay Rays acquire P Kyle Finnegan from the Washington Nationals for SS Greg Jones
While Hader would be a lot of fun on the Rays, Tampa Bay tends to go the quieter route. The Rays bullpen has been unusually shallow (for them) this year, and while Finnegan has been merely middling for the Nats, his stuff is better than his strikeout rate suggests, with a plus fastball and splitter to go with a decent slider. This is an organization that has a knack for squeezing performance out of underperforming pitchers with raw tools, and I think they could do similarly with Finnegan, who isn’t a free agent until after 2025. Jones is blocked at shortstop by a Wanderwall, and the Nats are in the stage of their rebuild where they should be grabbing as much raw talent as they can, regardless of position.
Have your own trade you want to get people mad about? Jump into the comments!
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
The return for these seems to be pretty low. There are not a lot of sellers and there are a lot of buyers, and in several of these cases the teams don’t actually have to trade them (Goldschmidt, Cease). The Padres may not even do anything, especially if that’s the return. The only one I think seems like it’s the right level is the Rays trade for Finnegan.
I think the biggest deals may actually be need-for-need deals between teams on the playoff bubble, especially if it’s between an AL and an NL wild-card contender. Nobody wants to cough up the farm for a rental, and I’d find it hard for someone with 2024 control like Goldschmidt to be moved if their team isn’t planning on blowing off the 2024 season.
Like that’s not going to be the best can do for Candelario in this market.. that’s even skewered more towards the sellers in the last couple of days…
Rizzo might even package Candy and Thomas like he’s done in the past with Scherzer+Trea, Soto+Bell
And that one might be one of the closer ones. You can sometimes trade guys like Zamora and Moore for a rental bat, but there have to be more of them than this.
I kind of wonder if the Nats would be interested in this deal more if Garrett Mitchell was added.
I like Candy + Thomas to CLE for …. stuff. CLE has lots of stuff, especially pitching, that WAS sorely needs. Thomas would step in as the OF’s leading power bat (yes really, and I know that’s sad) and has another year of control, while Candy could move JRam to 2nd, or simply take over for Josh Bell.
Hell, WAS could even eat take back Bell to juice the prospect return.
Cleveland’s not trading away pitching. They have Aaron Civale, 3 rookies, and 3 injured starters whose future is uncertain. And very little behind them in the minors. Also, Ramirez isn’t moving to 2nd. Cleveland still has 634 middle infielders in the majors and minors.
If CLE thought any of those 634 infielders were ready to help the offense, they’d have been called up by now. As a rental, Candy doesn’t get in the way of anyone’s long term plans.
Two of them – Arias and Freeman – are already in the majors – and Cleveland wants to give them a chance. Plus, there’s zero chance they move Ramirez to 2B.
And 1B is mostly occupied by Naylor. So that leaves DH. Which means that Washington would have to accept Josh Bell back in a trade. Except Bell has a $16.5M player option for next year which he’s definitely picking up. So Cleveland would have to pay a premium for Washington to take him back in a trade.
Then there’s the question as to whether Candy is better than Bell as a hitter. Bell was better last year which is why he got a much bigger contract. This year? Candy has the better numbers but Bell has much better xwOBA. Which means Bell may still be the better hitter.
Then Bell had better get it in gear in the next two months.
That said, a 1B/OF is a more likely target for Cleveland.
Yankees are another fit for Candylane. Exactly what they need
The only thing the Yankees need is a fire sale.
If Cleveland goes the cheaper route they could take Alex Call, a plus defender in center but can play all 3 OF spots who hits lefties decently ( but can’t hit righties) to platoon with Brennan.
Cleveland had Call up last year…
…for about a week.
Don’t recall if he got an AB…
16 PAs across 12 games with Cleveland last year.
Gotcha.
Not listed here.
The comp pick for Bellinger alone is worth roughly a 40+ in the draft if they don’t trade him. I find it hard to believe the surplus value of trading both him and Stroman is just two 40s when Giolito netted a 50 and 40.
These returns are particularly light where teams would easily extend QOs (Hader, Belly, Montgomery, I assume ERod though I’m not sure if he’s had one before?)
E-Rod has had one, but he’s also probably the most valuable starter available at the deadline. Montgomery and Stroman have looked a little shaky lately.
Has Montgomery really looked that shaky? He had a bad start in Wrigley. But in July – that poor start included – he has a 2.74 ERA, 20:8 K:BB ratio, only 2 HRs allowed in 23 IP, a .205/.277/.374 slash line against. I mean, I know that’s not 1998 Randy Johnson, but it’s pretty much right in line with Montgomery’s numbers all season.
Fair enough, I was letting recency bias take over.
The Cardinals would not just want to get a 2nd round draft pick, that probably wouldn’t help the MLB club until at least 2029, when they get attempt to get a prospect that could help in 2024…
Yep, either Zips is higher on all of these prospects than Longenhagen is or Dan isn’t aware that Giolito just got traded for an FV50 and all of Stroman, ERod, and Montgomery are better than Giolito and none of Dan’s deals include an FV50. Likewise, Cease will return an FV60 and FV45+ not just an FV50 and a couple of FV45’s and Goldschmidt returned two FV50’s when he had 1 year of control a few years ago, so he should go for that this time too since he’s still playing at a 4.5-win level.
He’s definitely aware that Giolito got traded for a 50 since he mentioned that Quero got moved in the second to last sentence of the Bellinger/Stroman trade. Definitely seems like a weak return.
Yeah the Sox got two top 50 prospects in the trade for Cease (cease and Jiminez) for a pitcher under similar control situation (Quintana)
Quintana was a reliable innings eater who had produced 20.1 fWAR over the previous four and a half seasons when he was traded. Cease has never reached 200 innings, and produced 11.9 fWAR over the previous four and a half seasons.
Dylan’s fastball velocity is down, his exit velocity is a career worst, his Z-Contact% is up, and his Zone% is down. Anyone who trades a FV60 for him would need their head examined.
yeah these trades suck lol
how does stroman and bellinger get significantly less than giolito and lopez
Agreed. If I’m Chicago and I’m trading Cease, and Baltimore could have him for three postseasons, the centerpiece better be someone like Mayo.
As you said, there ain’t many sellers and with Ohtani off the market (plus the premium they paid for Giolito), the price for Cease or any other potential good arm with control should be sky high. I’m not sure what other arms may fit that bill on non contenders. Keller?
I think this is correct. I don’t necessarily think any of these guys are going to get moved, but an FV55 position player is probably the centerpiece of a Cease trade. Mayo or Lawlar, most likely. I don’t really believe in Cartaya, I think Caminero is probably a 60, and I don’t think Mayer or Mead are going anywhere for various reasons. Otherwise, you would have to send back something like six or seven players, including multiple FV50s. If they threw in Cowser and DL Hall to this deal it would probably work (but I’m high on Cowser).
I’d also rather have Lawlar than Mayer, if I were the White Sox.
Much better defender…and he’s actually hitting in AA.
(Hoping someone pitches me on Mayer over Lawlar…but I know it will just be another downvote 😂)
Mayer is a tools bet. He likely has more raw power and his swing is very pretty. There are also some questions about Lawlar’s hit tool. I would counter that there are also a bunch of questions about Mayer’s hit tool and that he might have to move to third base.
My sense is that pretty much everyone has them back to back in terms of future value, but I feel more confident with Lawlar. I’ve never put a lot of stock in a “pretty” swing. I’d probably go Lawlar, Mayer, Merrill, Colson Montgomery, and then Amador, but Mayer is a whole lot closer to Merrill than Lawlar.
(although I would put Caminero as clearly the second best infield prospect in the minors behind Holliday, and Brooks Lee probably tied with Lawlar)
Yeah, the main thing is Lawlar has been a lot better, every time he’s been the same age as Mayer, and at the same level.
Which is why, after they both opened last year in Low-A, Lawlar reached AA at the end of the season, while Mayer opened this year in Salem.
…and why Lawlar will likely finish this season in AAA (he’s been on fire since the start of June), while Mayer and his pretty swing will open next year in Portland.
Cease will turn 28 this winter and has already shown clear signs of decline. I wouldn’t trade Westburg for him straight up.
Not that ZiPS is everything, but it projects Cease with 11.1 fWAR between now and 2025, his last year of team control (including his remaining fWAR this year). It projects Westburg with 8.7 fWAR over that same time. I would definitely trade Westburg for him straight up given current roster composition, but I wouldn’t add a whole lot more to the deal. Cease has the advantage of being a rarer commodity but the downside of increased injury risk (and has lost a full tick of velo in the last year).
When you consider that Westburg will be substantially cheaper for the next two years, and then will have multiple years of team control after Cease hits free agency, the gap isn’t that huge, certainly not equal to a top 100 prospect (Ortiz), a near-MLB ready No. 5 starter/swingman (Armbruester), and an upside CF.
I just realized that I was adding an extra year of team control to Cease. He’s actually got 8 fWAR projected until he’s a free agent, while Westburg is at 5.7 over that same period. But then you get Westburg for another three years. I’d do Westburg and Armbruester and maybe a 35+ guy for Cease, but I wouldn’t do this deal, and I’m confused that anyone thinks the O’s are underpaying.
I think the ZiPS projection for Cease is wildly optimistic. It has him for a better BB% in each of the next three seasons (3.63, 3.47, and 3.30) than his career best mark (3.69 in 2021). With the velocity loss and Zone% decline, I expect his BB% to continue rising rather than falling, while I expect his K% to fall as well. At 28, that is not a profile I would want to invest in.
We’re definitely on the same page that others here seem to be overvaluing Cease, and you’ve convinced me that the concerns are even greater than I was initially thinking. I’d still be interested given the short term needs and the years of control, plus the possibility the O’s development team can improve him, but I would not do the trade proposed in this article.
Bellinger is such a great fit for the Angels that I think they would be justified in trading O’Hoppe (gulp) straight up for him.
But I do wonder if the Cubs (or any of the other contenders hoping to get Ohtani next year) would want to do anything to help the Angels keep Ohtani, and you’d have to think that making the postseason would help those odds. I’m probably overthinking this a bit, but when it involves the upcoming Ohtani sweepstakes I’m not sure you can overthink things.
Why would the Angels trade their starting catcher (when healthy) for Bellinger? They just endorsed the guy with the Quero trade!
Tbh, I was thinking of this before the Quero trade, since having Quero for the long haul lessens the blow of losing O’Hoppe (and also since Thaiss and company have been surprisingly ok in his absence).
I don’t think the Cubs are serious contenders for Ohtani anyway, and I do think you are overthinking this even if that is a high bar.
On the other hand, the Cubs (and a few other teams) really should still be in wait and see mode, as they have four more games until the deadline and they could easily be in the tough spot they are now deciding what to do, but four wins or four losses (or even 3-1 or 1-3) make a decent difference in playoff odds.
I thought it was a bit weird that the Angels said definitively they weren’t trading Ohtani, though I guess it’s not as though there is some law that says they couldn’t change their minds if they lost 5-6 in a row.
Wait and see mode over 4 games? The Cubs being wait and see mode at all was media nonsense, they’ve had the periphs all year
The NL Central stinks, even if they lose all 4, they would still be one semi-hot streak away from winning the division.
If they lose all four games, they will be in a much worse position than the Angels were when they declared themselves buyers. And they won’t have the historical circumstances as an excuse. Basic arithmetic would tell you that they’d be way more than a semi-hot streak behind, especially since there are two teams significantly ahead of them already.
But to be clear I’m not saying they should sell. I’m just saying there is very little reason to jump in early to a sellers market (edit: on the buyer side, of course). And a few more days could make their situation clearer.
Every team with a pocketbook is a somewhat serious contender for Ohtani but each team individually is unlikely to land him.
I think he signs with a West Coast team but the idea that how the Angels or Cubs or anyone else does the next 3 months will influence where Ohtani signs seems laughable.
I think if the Angels win the World Series he is way more likely to stay. I also think that the Angels are still the favorites, simply because there is something of a binary stay/go choice and if he stays that’s the Angels and if he goes then it’s open to all teams with $500 million to spare. If he goes, I don’t think it’ll be too much about the money (as it will be astounding for sure), but where Ohtani wants to be for personal reasons and his stated desire to win. Chicago doesn’t seem like a great contender on either front. Dodgers, Giants, Mariner, New York Teams, Texas, you’d think maybe Boston?, and maybe Atlanta if they qualify as a team that would open its checkbook, all seem like more likely options. Chicago seems like it would be a big surprise, like Philly or Washington, or hell, Baltimore. They have some tiny chance, but if any team should be trying to play 3D chess (and you’re probably right that no team should except I’d say the Angels should), it’s not them.
The Cubs are also more or less in the same spot in the standings as the Angels and are probably better than them so trading their best players to them in general would be a really strange deadline deal.
The Angels aren’t acting rationally, though – they’re viewing this as their only shot to get to the playoffs with Ohtani…which is their only shot at keeping him.
The Cubs should absolutely trade Bellinger at the deadline. They’re better than they’ve been…but they’re not good.
The Cubs have the 5th best run differential in all of baseball.
5th highest run differential in MLB, 3rd highest in NL. plus with their top 3 starters, they could hang with anybody in the post season
I think you may be overstating things a bit. The Braves and the Dodgers are clearly better, the lineup is fine but not elite, and I don’t even know who the third pitcher is that you are referring to.
There’s a case for not selling but let’s not go overboard. They would be underdogs in the second round.
To be clear: There is a reason why Depth Charts projects them to win 29 games and lose 31 the rest of the way. It roughly projects the same thing for the Brewers and Orioles too, it’s just that they’ve banked more wins. They don’t have to sell, but that doesn’t mean they’re all-world either.
You could have written the same thing about the Phillies a year ago.
I assume he means Steele, Stroman, and Hendricks.
Stroman, Steele and Hendricks. Hendricks has been a phenomenal post season pitcher
Hendricks? Maybe he’s back, but I wouldn’t count on it. His strikeouts are down and he hasn’t been a playoff-caliber performer since 2020.
They’re as good or better than all the teams they’re chasing except maybe Philly. They’re 5th in run differential, 6th in base runs, 10th in position player WAR, and 11th in SP WAR. Barring a collapse over the weekend it would be foolish for them to sell because they don’t think they’re as good as the Dbacks, Giants, Marlins, Reds, and Brewers.
Couldn’t you say that is rational on the Angels part, though?
This brings up “rational based on what?” Making the playoffs? Making money? Making (or preventing) the legacy of the team that “wasted” Ohtani and let him get away?
Unless a team was going to make a truly stupid offer for Ohtani, it’s hard to imagine that trade setting up the Angels for success in 2024-26. Without Ohtani, the Angels are a bad team. Even if they hit on the prospects they got for Ohtani, and maybe also signed another free agent, what are the odds that those players would add up to Ohtani’s value? Low, right? The odds are against the Angels moving forward, but it feels like keeping Ohtani is somehow still the best option, even though it is likely futile.
But beyond that it also seems like the Angels will be less of a joke of a franchise if they fight to keep maybe the greatest baseball player of all time. Trading him is giving up and branding yourself a joke of a franchise. I say let it ride!
As you mentioned above, it does seem a tad bit odd for the Angels to already definitively say they’re backing out on dealing Ohtani just before dealing for Giolito.
I’ve said elsewhere (more than once) that I suspect they may still be hedging a bit w/ their weekend series coming against the Jays while slotting Giolito immediately in there to face them — and bumping Ohtani up a day, which got them a sweep of the Tigers yesterday.
IF they somehow get swept by the Jays this weekend (and fall 6 games behind them), they still have a day-and-change to reverse course. IF they somehow manage to do the opposite, they’d pull even w/ the Jays and maybe only be a game or so out (or possibly even tied for that last WC spot). Of course, those are the extremes and not too likely, but if they do happen, well…
Honestly, I wouldn’t worry too much about chasing down the Yanks or Bosox — they’re only barely ahead of the Angels anyway. It’s really only the Jays that are the real challenge to catch, and they have this weekend series just ahead of the trade deadline to see if they have a real shot (and w/ Giolito helping them some while relegating Silseth or maybe Anderson to a better suited role)…
I think we mostly agree given the standings and their talent, being buyers is irrational for the Angels. But given the point where the franchise is in time — about to lose Ohtani — buying is rational.
If the Cards were to trade Goldy to the Phillies, the return would have to include one of their big 3 pitching prospects, probably Griff McGarry.
Not just that, it would have to contain enough pitching talent to actually outperform Goldschmidt himself next year, and I highly doubt anyone is going to offer that much.
I highly doubt the Cards consider trading Goldy for more position player prospects
I think they don’t want to blow up their chances in 2024, unless they got a pitching prospect like Painter or Abel as part of the deal.
I was thinking the same thing. Abel or McGarry; I’m not sure the Cards would want to wait on Painter, given the drama they’ve had with other starters, so someone ready to join forces now seems more attractive.
I think Abel and McGarry are grossly overrated. They have little to no track record of throwing strikes and have insane BB% in the minors. I don’t see how it improves in the bigs. I think they’re relievers. McGarry especially.
Not just that. Even if he’d be ready by 2024 Opening Day, one good prospect alone isn’t going to outperform Goldschmidt himself next year. The Cardinals have no interest in overall making their 2024 team worse.
I don’t know why everyone is so fixated on a Goldschmidt trade. I suppose anything is possible but if they plan to compete in 2024 then trading Arenado and Goldschmidt doesn’t make a lot of sense, and they have no-trade clauses. If it were just one of those things I’d say the speculation would make more sense, but both?
Frees up 1B for Jordan Walker and nets a pretty significant return.
Walker isn’t a 1B, any any return would make the 2024 team overall worse than it would be with Goldschmidt. The Cardinals at least have other decent OF options already on hand if Walker doesn’t work out there.
as we’ve seen this year, it doesn’t take a lot to “compete” in the central. I think they can approximate Goldschmidt’s production in an addition by subtraction scenario where walker isn’t attempting to play the outfield anymore. if they can get some MLB-ready average or better arms in return they should really think about it
No, it would be almost impossible to approximate Goldschmidt’s value that way.
For one thing, Walker isn’t likely to play 1B any better than he does the OF.
What about the Cardinals 2023 season and their history of spending in free agency suggests the team will compete in 2024?
I can see them not rebuilding, but 82 wins will be a good outcome for the Cards in 2024.
I don’t think you have to squint your eyes that hard to see the Cards competing in 2024. Clay Davenport’s Adjusted Standings – which filters out sequencing luck, among other things – has the Cards ahead of the Reds and one game behind the Brewers this season. IOW, they’re not that different talentwise from the top teams in a weak division. Add in that most of their underperformance this year can be chalked up to a horrible bullpen (a real problem, but the type of thing you can make respectable in an offseason) and Adam Wainwright, and you could see how a once-proud organization will finally be motivated to open up their wallets and patch their holes.
All that said, I don’t think those things will happen. But I do think there’s a pretty decent core there, especially at the plate.
Sure, the offense is fine. The pitching staff is abysmal, though, and the front office has been spending less and less every year relative to league spending. I think the most likely outcome is they replace Montgomery with a similar pitcher, trade for a back-end starter to replace Flaherty, and run the same team out in ’24. With zero minor league depth, the most likely outcome will be win total in the 70’s, and we’ll be discussing STL as a key trading partner again next season (Goldschmidt/Arenado/Edman).
The Cardinals have had some really good teams in the last decade or so that should have inspired the front office to spend a little more. The fact that spending has dropped instead of increased should be enough information to predict the future.
The Cardinals have not been spending less and less! They gave out an $85M 5-year contract just last offseason, and the only reason they didn’t spend more was that the right opportunities didn’t come up or fell through last offseason. Even then, their payroll is again at a franchise high. Besides, both the Mets and Padres are clearly spending beyond their long-term means and skewing those MLB-wide numbers.
Also, they have a very decent farm system, so your assertion of “zero minor league depth” is absolutely false. Even if Liberatore remains nothing more than a AAAA player, they also have guys like Wiinn, Grefecco, and Hence coming before too long.
tdouglas said the Cardinals have been spending less and less relative to the rest of the league – and he’s right! This year they’re 16th in team payroll. Going backwards in time they rank 16 – 12 – 9 – 9 – 6. Admittedly it was a bit lower before that, but the Cards haven’t ranked in the bottom half of team payroll since I don’t know when. My data goes back to 1998, and they’ve always been in the top half of spenders, until this year.
The only reason I have hope at all that they might spend a little more this winter is because they’ve never had any particular reason to be super-aggressive in the market. They’ve generally played in a super winnable division, and their spending level generally allowed them to win that division. Now that the division isn’t just there for the taking, it may encourage a change in habits. (Then again, attendance is still quite high – 3rd in baseball – as are local TV ratings, so maybe the team will conclude the bottom line is just fine.)
They have always spent decently in free agency even if it doesn’t always work out as well as hoped. They also have an excellent front office and plenty of capital to swing trades in addition to free agent signings, including at this very upcoming deadline.
Meanwhile, they already have a championship caliber offense for next year (and a surplus beyond that), the majority of which also play good defense, and just need to rebuild most of the pitching staff. As for the pitching itself, they do have a few good pieces for next year with Mikolas, Helsey, and Gallegos, some nice prospects, and if Matz’s turnaround since being demoted to the bullpen and promoted back to the rotation is for real, that’s even better.
Then of course, there’s the weak division, which should continue being weak next year even if the Cubs, Reds, and Pirates continue getting better.
I don’t want to bust any bubbles but the Cubs will be buying (btw the binary options) and Value that QO they can give Bellinger for FA flexibility. They have multiple routes to one of the 7888 playoff spots. I do like Paris more than most but also the Cubs have prospects
I’d like you all to help me will over (to Cubs) Carlos Hernandez and Eugenio Suarez this TDL
You’re not the only one that thinks the Cubs end up buyers.
They *might* still sell but the price needs to be high ceiling ML ready at a minimum.
A lot of folks forget the Cubs can afford to resign both Semien and Bellinger and both seem to enjoy ChiTown. All they need is the *will* to go for it to open another competitive window. ’24 is more likely than now but in a weak division it wouldn’t take much to plug the holes.
Are the Cubs even sellers at this point?
I also wonder if Detroit would even want CES. We can say what we want about Torkelson, but, they’re going to give him A LOT of rope because he was picked 1-1 & he HAS been hitting for 3 months now & the metrics says he’s actually better than the stats (xwOBA of .341 vs current wOBA of .312)
They also have Colt Keith, who may need to move to 1B. Kerry Carpenter is probably a 1B/DH, so is Justice Bigbie, etc.
What they really need is a 2B or 3B (assuming Keith can’t play 3B) or a good corner OF. CES is none of those.
They have a 21.5% chance of making the playoffs if they just play this out. That’s not great, but it’s enough that maybe they just don’t do anything at the deadline.
There are several different versions of “selling” or “not selling” they could do. I think they wind up closer to the “not selling” side of this. And if they do trade guys like Stroman (who can’t get a QO and is probably more likely to be dealt) or Bellinger (who can get a QO and is probably less likely) I wouldn’t be surprised if they targeted guys who are basically ready and could maybe even help this year. For example, guys like Michael Busch, Justin Foscue, Ryne Nelson, etc.
Deleted my reply. I see what you mean now.
Stroman and Bellinger both have player options only for 24. why would one be eligible for a QO, but not the other?
You can only get a qualifying offer once in your career. Stroman was extended a QO once with the Mets, which he accepted, and he can’t ever get a QO again.
Bellinger has a complicated mutual option though the assumption is he’s going to reject the $24M and become a free agent.
To find a team like the Cubs, in a similar situation of being more talented than their record shows and not having the greatest postseason odds, who made the decision not to sell but to buy, and then went on to win the World Series, you have to go all the way back to two thousand and twenty one.
Carpenter is fine in the OF imo. He runs well and has a good arm just needs to work on his routes.
FG has him as a +1 fielder, so far!
Has Stroman dropped in value due to his recent streak of bad starts? I would think him and Bellinger would be able to get more than a 40+ and two 40s.
I think aiming for prospects that could impact next year’s team is good and the Cubs certainly need pitching. I think they’ll aim more for a corner infielder than a shortstop. Paris may may not have the arm for third base and doesn’t look to hit well enough for first.
No chance the Cubs sell unless they lose the next three in StL. You win 8 of 9 and then the GM says to the players and the fans, sorry, not good enough? No, that’s not going to happen. Improve the pen and get somebody at 3B and the Cubs might be the 3rd best team in the league. Add in a soft schedule after the next couple of weeks and they really have no excuse not to go for it.
At this point strength of schedule is important: sellers will be even weaker than before so anybody with a lot of post-deadline sellers is going to get a decent boost. Say anybody with a couple of series against both ChiSox and Detroit or Wash and Pit.
And this will help even the stand-pat teams.
Ohtani to the Tigers for Rodriguez and a 45 prospect
Pushes their 2024 win projection from 115 to 120!
What could San Diego get for Soto? Will he really be traded twice in two years?
My, how his stock has fallen, from Ted Williams 2.0 to trade chip….
They could get a haul. Not as much as they gave up last year, of course, but a haul none the less.
Also, everyone is a trade chip if the price is right.
They’d get more than the FV50 that Giolito returned but Machado only returned 2 FV40+’s and 2 FV40’s in his walk year. Expiring bats really don’t go for that much at the deadline.
Soto is not an expiring bat. He’s still arb eligible in 2024.
Oops, yeah, good call. In that case, I’d say he’d return half of the FV60 and 3 FV50’s he returned last year, so say 2 FV55’s or an FV60 and an FV45+. That’s about what 2 years of Realmuto returned.
Whatever price the Padres are setting on Soto I am guessing it is much too high for it to happen.
It’s not *his* stock that’s fallen.
SD needs pitching for now and later.
Yeah Idk, that return for Cease seems pretty light.
He hasn’t been as good as he’s been the last 2 years but he’s still 15th in fWar and has 2 more years of control after this season.
Trading him for Ortiz (50FV), Westburg (45FV, fringe defense). Fabian (45 FV, 37%K rate in AA) and Armbruester (40FV) doesn’t seem like good value.
To each their own, but I think that return is too much, not too little. A lot of that is about Westburg, who Eric (and thus fangraphs) is/was simply wrong about. Nobody else had him ranked in an area where he’d be a 45 (many had him as a top 50 overall prospect), and as I commented at the time of the rankings, the idea that he has fringe defense at 2B or 3B is really hard to justify. Others (including KLaw and Kiley) have said his defense is average or better, and so far in the majors he’s looked terrific defensively (I’m talking eye test, but the metrics have loved him too in that very small sample). I like Eric’s stuff quite a bit, but he was out on a limb on that one, and the limb snapped.
ZiPS thinks Westburg is a 2.5 WAR player next year and a 3 WAR player in 2025, and if you view the trade through that lens, this is a haul for the Sox.
Interesting, thanks for chiming in. I may have put too much weight on Eric’s view of him out of convenience.
From that lens, that does seem closer to fair value. Especially if my Sox are trying to “contend” next year, having a ready to go MLB starter is nice.
I find it hard to evaluate trades like this because it’s hard to judge the player development side. The O’s have been so good at developing hitters recently. Can we assume that those players will find equal success if traded? I don’t know how to answer that.
If we do just make that assumption, then I’d take this deal in a heartbeat if I’m Chicago. Westburg and Ortiz would be your starting middle infield next year, and a good one at that. Armbruester will be in the majors too next year; I don’t want to assign that much value to him, but he’s a potential No. 5 or 6 starter. And then Fabian is a nice upside play. I think the only reason to say no would be that it’s hard to trade a very good player like Cease and not get a potential star back, and this deal would be more about good starters than getting a potential star. That said, the ChiSox could use multiple good starters, so I’d definitely take this deal from that side.
I’m biased as an O’s fan, but I would be livid if Baltimore traded that much for Cease. His velocity is down, his average exit velocity is a career high, his hard hit rate is up dramatically, his Z-Contact% is up, and his Zone% is down. Plus, he’s never pitched 200 innings in any season. Cease is on the wrong side of his peak, the only question is how fast he declines.
If we’re going to deal that much young hitting, I would prefer it to be for one of the Mariners’ young starters.
That Bellinger deal seems quite low tbh. Seems like a bunch of teams could top that. Also, the Cubs tend to target high upside guys in trades and will take the best prospect they can get as opposed to some depth guys like when they got PCA and Alcantara. I can see them targeting some complex guys they really like.
Yeah I checked Baseball Trade Values (for whatever that’s worth) and it does have more value going to Cubs than the Angels, but it goes against what appears to be a seller’s market and I think it’s been a buyer’s market the last few years with COVID and all the economic consequences of that. I could see models being overly fitted to conditions that have since changed.
I do wonder given the change in the team’s trajectory if they will target more MLB ready players in order to go for it next year rather than high ceiling players further away.
I think we really need to know who has Rule 5 crunches to know what sorts of prospects are going to be available. That’s the biggest driver of deadline deals–when a team signed a whole lot of kids out of Latin America and high school and they are showing big tools but aren’t ready yet.
For example, you can pretty sure that some set of Jonathan Aranda, Osleivis Basabe, and Greg Jones will be on the move from the Rays.
(This is my plea, yet again, to put Rule 5 status on THE BOARD)
sadtrombone is right about Rule 5 status on THE BOARD and the trade deadline is an excellent time to point it out
::facepalm:: I just don’t see the Cards trading Goldschmidt and not getting pitching in return. Certianly not for outfielders when the team already has an outfield glut.
Padres 2023: 9 SS on their way to 82 wins!
Cardinals 2024: 9 OF on their way to 82 wins!
I feel the only way the Cardinals would trade Goldschmidt is for significant pitching upgrade that they can slide into the rotation for 2024.
Man that ERod package is weak. Just a bunch of spare parts. The Tigers desperately need bats, I doubt they go for a pitching heavy package with their main asset. Also Siani is essentially Parker Meadows I don’t see the fit there at all.
The problem with ERod is he has an opt out.
He had a great first half but lately…no so much.
So the risk runs both ways: he might right the ship and walk so you price him as a rental, or he doesn’t and you’re stuck with the full deal, and there’s no way to know what he is.
Any deal could be too much, too little, or just right.
I think it would be a huge disappointment for STL to trade their big trade chips, including Goldschmidt, and not get a 50 FV prospect back. Their front office has continually said they are competing in ’24, and these estimated returns don’t accomplish that. Mozeliak and company have never sold before, so I could see their inexperience leading to poor trades, but it certainly wouldn’t be ideal.
And if you’re trading Goldy, there’s no reason to keep Arenado around. Might as well go all-in and trade him, too.
Arenado’s three years younger and has three more years of team control than Goldy.
Sure, but if you’re punting on 2024, then you’re only getting two more years of Arenado, who is already deep in his decline defensively. It is likely that he won’t be a significant asset to the ’25 and ’26 teams.
Son.
If you ignore every single piece of reputable evidence and treat 100 games of defensive data as incontrovertible evidence of true talent…Arenado is still a 4 win player.
Also…putting Walker at 1B isn’t “punting on 2024,” haha.
Making the team overall worse by subtracting Goldschmidt’s excellent offense and turning Walker into a butcher at 1B instead of RF would indeed be punting on 2024.
However, even if they were to punt on 2024 (which they’re not), they still wouldn’t be punting on 2025 and later, so Arenado would still be staying even if they were interested in trading Goldy.
Transplanting Walker’s butchery to first (assuming that he even would be a butcher at first) frees up an OF spot for an actual OF.
Also. There is nothing about this Cardinals roster that should give a faint of a whipper
…dad?
Arenado is clearly a different player this year defensively. There’s a reason all three defensive ratings agree, plus I’ve watched all 100 games this season and see a different player. Any fan would tell you the same. For every stud play he makes, he’s dropping balls and throwing poorly.
Putting Walker at 1st isn’t a move a team that plans to contend makes. They have no idea if he can handle the position. If they go into the season, and he can’t handle it, they’ve got a serious roster situation on their hands.
Letting Oli Marmol manage isn’t a move a team that plans to contend makes.
Sounds like he might be having concentration issues because the Cardinals are such a bad baseball team.
Like…why would any financially secure adult be locked in defensively on a team that thinks putting Walker in the OF “is a move that a contending team plans to make.”
More to the point…Mozeliak isn’t an idiot, so I doubt that the Cardinals “plan to contend” next year.
They should hope to do so, but they only have one starting pitcher on the roster who can even be described as “above average.”
He’ll be a free agent. They owe another guy $37m for his 35 and 36 seasons.
Other players seem to be concentrating just fine. Goldschmidt, Dejong, and Contreras are all performing as their typical defensive selves, and all three have made tens of millions of dollars. Arenado was also on some terrible Rockies teams while playing amazing at third, even when he had his huge contract.
I’m not sure if you’re being pessimistic because of the poor season or if you’re a fan of a rival team, but what in the world do you mean you “doubt that the Cardinals plan to contend”? Why would they keep Arenado and Goldschmidt if they weren’t planning on contending? Mozeliak has said multiple times that Arenado is staying put, and he doubled down again just a few minutes ago.
I actually agree that the odds of contending are much lower than most fans think, because the rotation can’t be fixed in one offseason. Dan Symborski agreed with that assessment in his latest chat, too. But to say they aren’t gonna try is crazy. Mozeliak can only spend the money he is given by ownership.
I’m an AL fan on the East coast. I genuinely do not care one way or the other about the Cardinals.
But I do like Goldy, and I respect Mozeliak as a competent GM.
The Cardinals’ roster isn’t good, and doesn’t have a clear route to being good next year.
They should set Goldy free, with an eye towards 2025…when Arenado should still be a Cardinal, but Goldy almost certainly won’t.
I am trying not to be hyperbolic now, but if the 22% playoff-odd Cubs traded two of their best players to the 23% playoff-odd Angels for a 40+ and two 40s when they won’t even be able to roster all their 45s this winter, marking a third straight July selloff, I actually might stop watching baseball.
Yeah. That scenario seems a lot more like wishful thinking from the author than a legitimate possibility.
It’s really hard for me to see why they think that. They probably aren’t going to pick up Lynn or Anderson’s options so they will need viable players at C, 2B, SS, RF, and 2 SP, plus the usual bullpen churn just to fill out the roster. Plus the usual injury risk on Moncada, Jimenez, and Robert. I can definitely see them trying to sell me on those players being Seby Zavala, Romy Gonzalez, Colson Montgomery, Oscar Colas, and a couple of pitchers on the wrong side of 30 on “prove-it” deals, but I’m not buying that. I certainly don’t see them committing 9 figures in free agency to anybody.
I mean, they are currently trying to sell me on Jake Burger as a second baseman. When Burger was drafted, most people seemed to think he wasn’t athletic enough to stick at 3B and would have to move to first. That was before roughly 17 serious foot and ankle injuries. Stuff like that makes it hard to take them seriously.
If they wanted to go all-in by stripping what is left of their minor league system for position players and sign 3 strong starting pitchers then I think they could do it. That is more than I could say for the Nationals or Royals.
They might do the first part, but I’d be shocked if they signed one truly “strong” SP, much less three. Reinsdorf doesn’t like long term deals for free agent pitchers and good free agent pitchers don’t give discounts.
How many “strong” starting pitchers are headed to FA?
How many deep pocket teams will need pitching?
There’a difference between wanting and getting.
Lynn and Kelly are gone.
After moving pitchers they get back Trace Thompson and two AA pitchers.
Sounds like more trades are coming.
And now Graveman is going to Houston.
They’re not kidding about being sellers.
I know the Angels can’t really do any better because they have emptied the system out, but I am pretty sure the Cubs can do better than this elsewhere if they are so inclined.
The hader deal is quite light, if that’s all they can get they are better off just running out the 20ish% playoff shot
Lol. The cubs are 2.5 games behind LAA , have a better run differential, and are just as close in the wild card race.
but you think the Cubs should sell and Angels buy? Why?
You couldn’t come up with a middle reliever trade for our beloved Orioles? /s
Orioles need LHP and could use a backup C. Let’s make up a trade: Pirates trade LHP Rich Hill and C Austin Hedges to the Os for Hudson Haskin (who will be rule 5 eligible and seems like a 4th OF with a modest “ceiling”) and Leandro Arias (the proverbial “lottery ticket”). Mostly, this would give the Bucs another OF prospect named “Hudson H.”
Good idea but a bit light in today’s market.
Don’t forget Pitt looked pretty good early in the year despite losing Cruz.
They’ll want more.
I think the Pirates may be keeping Hedges around as effectively a catching coach for Rodriguez and Davis. Davis was talking about how, when he was catching bullpens, Hedges was giving him helpful tips, and if Hedges can help Davis out to the point where he’s viable as a part-time catcher in the future, that’d help them more than any lottery ticket they might get back for him.
This may be wishcasting because Davis is not putting up good numbers as an outfielder and I’d sure like him to have some defensive home.
re: the Angels-Cubs’ trade:
1. Cubs are much more likely to buy than sell if things do not change in the next week;
2. Jed Hoyer is on record that they are hoping to buy at the deadline;
3. Hoyer likes his job and Cubs fans are enjoying this team, even though they are only .500 and only have a 22% chance of making the playoffs (as of today’s date);
4. Cub fans have fallen in love with Bellinger and they have always liked Stroman too. The fans want both players to stay, not be traded. No way that the Cubs are going to trade their best player and best pitcher this season for a couple of C+ prospects. Not going to happen because point #3 (Hoyer likes his job and they don’t HAVE to sell unless they are offered something really strong).
MLB.COM has the typical “faceless team exec” analysis piece about who might move and not a one saw the Cubs as sellers.
Your list expains why.
Especially because of #4.
When your best performers are also fan favorites (filling seats) you don’t move them unless the team implodes.
A lot of these trade deadline articles seem to be getting written based off standings from a month ago.
The Cubs have the sixth best Pythag and BaseRuns winning percentage in the sport, an easy remaining schedule, and are four games out in the Wild Card and 5.5 in a not-exactly-daunting NL Central. The projection-based standings have their playoff odds essentially the same as those of the Angels, while the season-to-date stats ones give the Cubs a 51.5% chance of reaching the postseason to the Angels, ahem, 20.5%.
That just doesn’t add up to a sell, let alone of Bellinger and Stroman to an Angels org failing to give up particularly interesting prospects. Like, look at this (https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2023-in-season-prospect-list?org=laa%2Cchc) and explain how adding three more 40 and 40+ guys into a super-deep farm system that already has like 35 such prospects helps Chicago?
Two days’ worth of results later: loooooooooooololol.
A week of results after that: loooooooololololololololol
I think the Cubs are going to be buyers, but if they’re sellers 100% agree they should package Bellinger and Stroman together as an Ohtani-lite. That said they need a top prospect back not a collection of FV 40 guys. Given the Angels system and the trade they already made, there’s not a match there.
If the Marlins go for Candelario, I think a sneaky pickup for them might be Alex Call as a right handed platoon partner for Chisholm in centerfield and defensive replacement in general.
I don’t believe the Reds would include any of their current starters in a deal (except Weaver, who nobody would want), particularly a starter for which they have 5+ years of control. They need an additional starter, and a couple relievers.
How about the Mariners acquire Dylan Carlson from the Cardinals for Emerson Hancock (and maybe a low end prospect throw in)?
Why in the world would the Cardinals trade Goldschmidt for a trio of players whose combined value will almost certainly be significantly less than Goldschmidt’s in 2024?
The Cardinals are retooling, NOT rebuilding, and they need Goldschmidt’s excellent combination of offense and defense to help them win next year.
Besides, the Cardinals already have enough outfielders and both Gorman and Donovan who can start at 2B for years to come! The Cardinals need pitching, not position players who are only as good or worse than what they already have! You didn’t even offer them a replacement at 1B!
What do you see a Verlander deal looking like?
FWIW:
Mets eat $20M+, get a couple of 40’s from Texas.
Alternately, Texas pays full freight and the Mets get a PTBNL.
There’s a lot of money left on his contract even if he’s back in shape.
Doubt anybody else has the pockets and the hunger to risk taking on $60M on a 40 year old.
Turns out the Rangers went for Sherzer instead.
They got the Mets to eat $35M to get a 21year old FV50 AA 2b.
Very interresting…
How could the Cubs sell being over 500?! This is the problem with baseball. Some teams don’t even try to win.
MLB has to add some incentive for these teams… I’ve said add a draft pick for all teams that finish over 500… maybe after round 3… or addl pool money. Something. Imagine being a Cubs fan and they just give up after 4 months…
Well, the Cubs aren’t actually selling. Easily half of Fangraphs’ deadline trade coverage seems to have gotten written based off standings from three weeks ago.