Let’s Talk About the Other Awards Candidates

Kyle Ross and Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

As much as I love coverage of Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, or Cal Raleigh, talking about the absolute best players in the league can be a bit too rich, like trying to eat an entire plate of fudge in a single sitting. Since so many baseball arguments revolve around who is going to win an award or who is the best at something, I feel there’s a bit of a weird tendency for the next tier of players — those who are having great seasons but are likely to fall short of winning a major award, even if they end up as finalists — to get surprisingly little coverage relative to the big dogs (or dumpers). So, in the interest of improving the coverage-to-awesomeness ratio for baseball’s next-best guys, here are the most interesting players on the edges the awards conversation. I’ll also throw in some updated long-term projections because, as Chekhov’s projection system states, if ZiPS is on the mantle in the first act, it should be run at some point. Stats are through Wednesday’s games unless otherwise noted.

Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks

If you’re looking for one of the reasons the Diamondbacks have actually improved their position in the playoff picture, from a 1% playoff probability at the trade deadline to 4.5% entering play Friday, Geraldo Perdomo has a lot to do with it. I bet most baseball fans with a passing familiarity with WAR could name Ohtani as the NL leader, but I doubt a very large percentage would be aware that Perdomo is the current runner-up. Perdomo’s offensive improvement this year has been across the board, and he’s already got significantly more home runs (19) than he did over his first three seasons in the majors (14).

People like to use the “professional hitter” label for someone like Luis Arraez, but Perdomo would be a far better choice. He still doesn’t hit the ball very hard; his hard-hit rate is only in the 12th percentile, thanks to a really slow bat (7th percentile). But for Perdomo, his excellent contact skills are the means to an end, not the end itself. His contact rate of just under 90% has more juice than that of many players who make more contact because he’s so selective. He’s eighth in the league in Statcast’s out-of-zone swing percentage and 15th in squared-up percentage.

ZiPS Projection – Geraldo Perdomo
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ WAR
2026 .271 .371 .423 513 88 139 25 4 15 75 79 77 21 121 4.7
2027 .265 .364 .412 514 86 136 25 3 15 74 78 76 20 116 4.4
2028 .261 .361 .407 514 86 134 24 3 15 74 78 75 19 114 4.2
2029 .257 .357 .399 514 85 132 24 2 15 73 78 74 18 111 3.9
2030 .256 .356 .398 515 84 132 24 2 15 72 77 74 16 110 3.8

Maikel Garcia, Kansas City Royals

Who’s the best third baseman in baseball this year? OK, it’s not Maikel Garcia, since I think that José Ramírez will be that for the next 3,500 years as he slowly transforms into a sandworm while putting up about 10,000 WAR. But Garcia is almost certainly the best of the rest of the hot corner denizens, and I’m not sure how many people realize just how good he’s been. Garcia has always had good plate discipline, but never was a big home run hitter despite a very solid hard-hit rate. Here’s a non-exhaustive list of players who hit balls 95 mph at a lesser rate than Garcia in 2023-2024: Cal Raleigh, Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso. But this time around Garcia is hitting with more loft (three degrees on average), and swapping grounders for fly balls as a result. He’s also pulling them, too, which is a good thing if you want to hit homers.

Oh yeah, it’d be a federal crime if he didn’t win a Gold Glove at third base this year.

ZiPS Projection – Maikel Garcia
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ WAR
2026 .270 .331 .404 570 82 154 32 4 12 70 54 98 25 105 3.1
2027 .271 .332 .405 561 81 152 31 4 12 69 53 94 23 105 3.1
2028 .269 .331 .399 546 78 147 30 4 11 67 52 90 21 104 2.9
2029 .268 .330 .397 527 75 141 29 3 11 64 51 87 19 103 2.7
2030 .267 .329 .394 502 71 134 28 3 10 60 48 83 16 102 2.4

Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies

I loves me some Kyle Schwarber, but I’m surprised Trea Turner hasn’t gotten more attention, since he’s been the better overall player this season. He’s out with a hamstring injury at the moment, but he’s generally been healthier this season than last, and is conclusively showing that his down 2023 season (in relative terms) was the fluke. What’s pumping up his WAR this year is a quick change in his defensive performances. Now, measuring defense can be an absolute nightmare compared to offense, simply because we’re trying to measures events that didn’t happen instead of things that did. Like, if you wanted to measure my rate of obnoxious tweets, you could just count my tweets and multiply by — I don’t know — 0.5. But how many obnoxious tweets do I defend readers from by forbearance? OK, probably none, but you get what I’m going for, I hope — it requires a lot of guesswork. So considering that both Statcast and Sports Info Solutions, two sources that rarely agree on Turner, see a big improvement, of 15 runs and 14 runs, respectively, I think there’s something there. Those runs are the difference between a guy who may be able to stick through most of his decline at shortstop and one who may have to be moved to another position in a year or two. He now looks like he’ll remain a shortstop for the rest of his time in Philadelphia.

ZiPS Projection – Trea Turner
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ WAR
2026 .284 .335 .438 585 91 166 30 3 18 75 42 116 27 114 4.2
2027 .277 .331 .421 542 82 150 27 3 15 66 40 109 22 109 3.3
2028 .268 .321 .402 497 72 133 24 2 13 58 36 101 17 101 2.4
2029 .264 .317 .394 444 62 117 21 2 11 50 32 93 14 98 1.9
2030 .257 .309 .377 385 51 99 18 2 8 41 27 83 11 91 1.1

Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays

Did you know that Junior Caminero has hit 44 homers this year? OK, you probably did, but I guarantee the average fan wouldn’t. Sure, he plays for the Rays, but he still deserves one of those big phenom extensions, like the one Corbin Carroll got from the Diamondbacks. Remember, Caminero is only 22.

ZiPS Projection – Junior Caminero
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ WAR
2026 .261 .307 .517 578 87 151 26 1 40 111 37 121 7 126 3.9
2027 .267 .315 .530 589 92 157 27 1 42 116 41 118 7 132 4.5
2028 .269 .320 .538 587 94 158 27 1 43 119 43 113 6 135 4.8
2029 .272 .324 .544 585 96 159 27 0 44 121 45 109 6 138 5.1
2030 .274 .329 .552 583 98 160 27 0 45 122 47 106 5 142 5.4

Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers

Brice Turang was solid last year, but nearly half his WAR came from baserunning and defense. His .254/.316/.349 line was rather underwhelming. This year, no player has increased his hard-hit rate more than Turang, as he’s gone from 30% to 47%, a bump of 17 percentage points. Only four other players have improved by even 10 points. And the results are more than just pleasing to statnerds like me; he’s cashed all that hard contact into 18 homers, up from his combined 13 in 2023 and 2024. That certainly makes up for stealing fewer bases this time around, and Turang is a big reason why the Brewers are the only team in baseball with a decent chance to win 100 games this year.

ZiPS Projection – Brice Turang
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ WAR
2026 .267 .332 .401 539 80 144 24 3 14 66 53 120 28 103 3.1
2027 .264 .330 .394 538 80 142 24 2 14 66 54 117 27 101 3.0
2028 .262 .328 .392 538 80 141 24 2 14 65 54 115 25 100 2.9
2029 .260 .327 .390 538 79 140 24 2 14 64 54 114 23 99 2.7
2030 .257 .324 .383 522 75 134 23 2 13 62 53 110 21 97 2.4

Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

Meet Cristopher Sánchez, your runner-up in the NL Cy Young race. Paul Skenes certainly would get my vote if were a Cy Young voter this year (I’m not), but the difference between Skenes and Sánchez is smaller than most people think. Sánchez has thrown a few more innings than Skenes, and the ERA difference shrinks a bit when you consider team defense. Moreover, Sánchez is tied for the most quality starts in baseball with Bryan Woo of the Mariners. Again, Sánchez is not better than Skenes, nor is he having a better year than the Pirates right-hander, but the Phillies have survived a poor season by Aaron Nola and have a good chance of surviving the loss of Zack Wheeler in large part due to Sánchez’s ascension into acehood. Given that he’s now the top starter on a big market team that is the only club to clinch its division, it’s kind of weird that he’s not a household name yet.

ZiPS Projection – Cristopher Sánchez
Year W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ WAR
2026 11 7 3.36 30 29 179.3 163 67 16 44 171 125 4.0
2027 10 7 3.45 29 28 172.0 160 66 16 42 160 122 3.6
2028 10 6 3.54 28 27 167.7 160 66 17 41 152 119 3.3
2029 9 7 3.71 28 27 157.7 155 65 17 39 140 114 2.9
2030 8 7 3.93 28 27 153.3 155 67 18 39 133 107 2.5

MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals

OK, MacKenzie Gore isn’t having an amazing season, but given how badly the Nationals have wasted his efforts, I feel there’s cause to throw out a condolence shoutout. A 2025 All-Star with a 5-14 record, the Nats have lost 19 of the 29 games he’s started this season, so if he had just been slightly less effective in a few of his no-decisions, he could’ve been on the cusp of a 20-loss season right now that would’ve had little to do with his performance. Looking at pitchers with at least 3 WAR during the 2000s, Gore has the third-most decisions below a .500 winning percentage.

Wins Below .500
Season Name W L Decisions Below .500 ERA FIP WAR
2015 Shelby Miller 6 17 -5.5 3.02 3.45 3.69
2007 Matt Cain 7 16 -4.5 3.65 3.78 4.09
2025 MacKenzie Gore 5 14 -4.5 4.00 3.64 3.07
2021 Luis Castillo 8 16 -4.0 3.98 3.75 3.85
2000 Chris Holt 8 16 -4.0 5.35 4.40 3.34
2014 Nathan Eovaldi 6 14 -4.0 4.37 3.37 3.34
2010 Doug Fister 6 14 -4.0 4.11 3.65 3.32
2015 Corey Kluber 9 16 -3.5 3.49 2.97 5.57
2016 Robbie Ray 8 15 -3.5 4.90 3.76 3.28
2002 Mark Redman 8 15 -3.5 4.21 3.69 4.04
2008 Justin Verlander 11 17 -3.0 4.84 4.18 3.22
2021 Sandy Alcantara 9 15 -3.0 3.19 3.42 4.29
2017 Jeff Samardzija 9 15 -3.0 4.42 3.61 3.77
2007 Bronson Arroyo 9 15 -3.0 4.23 4.57 3.36
2006 Aaron Cook 9 15 -3.0 4.23 4.20 3.60
2013 Cole Hamels 8 14 -3.0 3.60 3.26 4.67
2012 Josh Johnson 8 14 -3.0 3.81 3.40 3.34
2008 Matt Cain 8 14 -3.0 3.76 3.91 3.65
2001 Pedro Astacio 8 14 -3.0 5.09 4.22 3.20
2014 Jeff Samardzija 7 13 -3.0 2.99 3.20 4.43
2024 Garrett Crochet 6 12 -3.0 3.58 2.69 4.64
2016 Michael Pineda 6 12 -3.0 4.82 3.80 3.20
2021 Antonio Senzatela 4 10 -3.0 4.42 3.61 3.50
2002 Ben Sheets 11 16 -2.5 4.15 3.76 3.83
2006 Zach Duke 10 15 -2.5 4.47 4.13 3.22
Pitchers with at least 3.0 WAR, 2000-2025

ZiPS Projection – MacKenzie Gore
Year W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ WAR
2026 10 9 3.83 29 29 157.3 143 67 18 55 178 106 2.7
2027 10 9 3.89 28 28 152.7 142 66 18 51 169 105 2.5
2028 9 10 3.97 27 27 152.0 143 67 18 50 164 103 2.4
2029 9 9 4.06 27 27 146.3 141 66 18 48 153 100 2.2
2030 8 10 4.18 27 27 144.3 142 67 18 47 146 98 2.0

Jakob Marsee, Miami Marlins

I won’t say exactly whom I plan to vote for in the NL Rookie of the Year voting — you have to promise not to, and I think the penalty is being flayed alive — but I will say that Jakob Marsee ought to get serious consideration in a season when nobody’s having a year like Skenes or Jackson Merrill did last year. Marsee is only a few tenths of a win behind the three NL rookies who have racked up more WAR, and he has done it in less than half the plate appearances of any of them. I don’t believe that the Rookie of the Year award should be the Most Valuable Rookie of the Year award, meaning that if you’re talking greatness, then you really should care quite about wins above average and actual awesomeness, without over-prioritizing playing time. It would be totally understandable to vote for the players with more of the typical counting stats — again, I might do that, or I might not; I am not at liberty to say — but if you’re not at least seriously considering voting for Marsee, I think you’re doing your ballot a disservice.

ZiPS Projection – Jakob Marsee
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ WAR
2026 .244 .344 .406 532 81 130 24 7 16 73 74 127 39 105 2.8
2027 .248 .347 .410 536 82 133 25 7 16 75 75 124 37 108 2.9
2028 .248 .347 .407 536 82 133 25 6 16 75 75 122 35 107 2.8
2029 .249 .347 .409 531 81 132 25 6 16 74 74 119 32 107 2.7
2030 .246 .346 .403 521 79 128 24 5 16 72 73 115 29 105 2.5





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

1 Comment
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Roger McDowell Hot Foot
25 seconds ago

This is great. It’s a good year for runners-up! I was aware of Turang because most of his 17 million (approx.) RBI came against my team, and I was aware of Caminero because everyone loves the young-star hype, but I was honestly not at all aware how well Perdomo was doing this year. I think I’d still take the under on his ZIPS projection — he’s such an extreme contact maximizer that the risk of regressing to the mean seems large — but that isn’t meant to take away from what he’s done this year.