Let’s Talk About the Other Awards Candidates

As much as I love coverage of Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, or Cal Raleigh, talking about the absolute best players in the league can be a bit too rich, like trying to eat an entire plate of fudge in a single sitting. Since so many baseball arguments revolve around who is going to win an award or who is the best at something, I feel there’s a bit of a weird tendency for the next tier of players — those who are having great seasons but are likely to fall short of winning a major award, even if they end up as finalists — to get surprisingly little coverage relative to the big dogs (or dumpers). So, in the interest of improving the coverage-to-awesomeness ratio for baseball’s next-best guys, here are the most interesting players on the edges the awards conversation. I’ll also throw in some updated long-term projections because, as Chekhov’s projection system states, if ZiPS is on the mantle in the first act, it should be run at some point. Stats are through Wednesday’s games unless otherwise noted.
Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks
If you’re looking for one of the reasons the Diamondbacks have actually improved their position in the playoff picture, from a 1% playoff probability at the trade deadline to 4.5% entering play Friday, Geraldo Perdomo has a lot to do with it. I bet most baseball fans with a passing familiarity with WAR could name Ohtani as the NL leader, but I doubt a very large percentage would be aware that Perdomo is the current runner-up. Perdomo’s offensive improvement this year has been across the board, and he’s already got significantly more home runs (19) than he did over his first three seasons in the majors (14).
People like to use the “professional hitter” label for someone like Luis Arraez, but Perdomo would be a far better choice. He still doesn’t hit the ball very hard; his hard-hit rate is only in the 12th percentile, thanks to a really slow bat (7th percentile). But for Perdomo, his excellent contact skills are the means to an end, not the end itself. His contact rate of just under 90% has more juice than that of many players who make more contact because he’s so selective. He’s eighth in the league in Statcast’s out-of-zone swing percentage and 15th in squared-up percentage.
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | .271 | .371 | .423 | 513 | 88 | 139 | 25 | 4 | 15 | 75 | 79 | 77 | 21 | 121 | 4.7 |
| 2027 | .265 | .364 | .412 | 514 | 86 | 136 | 25 | 3 | 15 | 74 | 78 | 76 | 20 | 116 | 4.4 |
| 2028 | .261 | .361 | .407 | 514 | 86 | 134 | 24 | 3 | 15 | 74 | 78 | 75 | 19 | 114 | 4.2 |
| 2029 | .257 | .357 | .399 | 514 | 85 | 132 | 24 | 2 | 15 | 73 | 78 | 74 | 18 | 111 | 3.9 |
| 2030 | .256 | .356 | .398 | 515 | 84 | 132 | 24 | 2 | 15 | 72 | 77 | 74 | 16 | 110 | 3.8 |
Maikel Garcia, Kansas City Royals
Who’s the best third baseman in baseball this year? OK, it’s not Maikel Garcia, since I think that José Ramírez will be that for the next 3,500 years as he slowly transforms into a sandworm while putting up about 10,000 WAR. But Garcia is almost certainly the best of the rest of the hot corner denizens, and I’m not sure how many people realize just how good he’s been. Garcia has always had good plate discipline, but never was a big home run hitter despite a very solid hard-hit rate. Here’s a non-exhaustive list of players who hit balls 95 mph at a lesser rate than Garcia in 2023-2024: Cal Raleigh, Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso. But this time around Garcia is hitting with more loft (three degrees on average), and swapping grounders for fly balls as a result. He’s also pulling them, too, which is a good thing if you want to hit homers.
Oh yeah, it’d be a federal crime if he didn’t win a Gold Glove at third base this year.
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | .270 | .331 | .404 | 570 | 82 | 154 | 32 | 4 | 12 | 70 | 54 | 98 | 25 | 105 | 3.1 |
| 2027 | .271 | .332 | .405 | 561 | 81 | 152 | 31 | 4 | 12 | 69 | 53 | 94 | 23 | 105 | 3.1 |
| 2028 | .269 | .331 | .399 | 546 | 78 | 147 | 30 | 4 | 11 | 67 | 52 | 90 | 21 | 104 | 2.9 |
| 2029 | .268 | .330 | .397 | 527 | 75 | 141 | 29 | 3 | 11 | 64 | 51 | 87 | 19 | 103 | 2.7 |
| 2030 | .267 | .329 | .394 | 502 | 71 | 134 | 28 | 3 | 10 | 60 | 48 | 83 | 16 | 102 | 2.4 |
Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies
I loves me some Kyle Schwarber, but I’m surprised Trea Turner hasn’t gotten more attention, since he’s been the better overall player this season. He’s out with a hamstring injury at the moment, but he’s generally been healthier this season than last, and is conclusively showing that his down 2023 season (in relative terms) was the fluke. What’s pumping up his WAR this year is a quick change in his defensive performances. Now, measuring defense can be an absolute nightmare compared to offense, simply because we’re trying to measures events that didn’t happen instead of things that did. Like, if you wanted to measure my rate of obnoxious tweets, you could just count my tweets and multiply by — I don’t know — 0.5. But how many obnoxious tweets do I defend readers from by forbearance? OK, probably none, but you get what I’m going for, I hope — it requires a lot of guesswork. So considering that both Statcast and Sports Info Solutions, two sources that rarely agree on Turner, see a big improvement, of 15 runs and 14 runs, respectively, I think there’s something there. Those runs are the difference between a guy who may be able to stick through most of his decline at shortstop and one who may have to be moved to another position in a year or two. He now looks like he’ll remain a shortstop for the rest of his time in Philadelphia.
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | .284 | .335 | .438 | 585 | 91 | 166 | 30 | 3 | 18 | 75 | 42 | 116 | 27 | 114 | 4.2 |
| 2027 | .277 | .331 | .421 | 542 | 82 | 150 | 27 | 3 | 15 | 66 | 40 | 109 | 22 | 109 | 3.3 |
| 2028 | .268 | .321 | .402 | 497 | 72 | 133 | 24 | 2 | 13 | 58 | 36 | 101 | 17 | 101 | 2.4 |
| 2029 | .264 | .317 | .394 | 444 | 62 | 117 | 21 | 2 | 11 | 50 | 32 | 93 | 14 | 98 | 1.9 |
| 2030 | .257 | .309 | .377 | 385 | 51 | 99 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 41 | 27 | 83 | 11 | 91 | 1.1 |
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
Did you know that Junior Caminero has hit 44 homers this year? OK, you probably did, but I guarantee the average fan wouldn’t. Sure, he plays for the Rays, but he still deserves one of those big phenom extensions, like the one Corbin Carroll got from the Diamondbacks. Remember, Caminero is only 22.
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | .261 | .307 | .517 | 578 | 87 | 151 | 26 | 1 | 40 | 111 | 37 | 121 | 7 | 126 | 3.9 |
| 2027 | .267 | .315 | .530 | 589 | 92 | 157 | 27 | 1 | 42 | 116 | 41 | 118 | 7 | 132 | 4.5 |
| 2028 | .269 | .320 | .538 | 587 | 94 | 158 | 27 | 1 | 43 | 119 | 43 | 113 | 6 | 135 | 4.8 |
| 2029 | .272 | .324 | .544 | 585 | 96 | 159 | 27 | 0 | 44 | 121 | 45 | 109 | 6 | 138 | 5.1 |
| 2030 | .274 | .329 | .552 | 583 | 98 | 160 | 27 | 0 | 45 | 122 | 47 | 106 | 5 | 142 | 5.4 |
Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers
Brice Turang was solid last year, but nearly half his WAR came from baserunning and defense. His .254/.316/.349 line was rather underwhelming. This year, no player has increased his hard-hit rate more than Turang, as he’s gone from 30% to 47%, a bump of 17 percentage points. Only four other players have improved by even 10 points. And the results are more than just pleasing to statnerds like me; he’s cashed all that hard contact into 18 homers, up from his combined 13 in 2023 and 2024. That certainly makes up for stealing fewer bases this time around, and Turang is a big reason why the Brewers are the only team in baseball with a decent chance to win 100 games this year.
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | .267 | .332 | .401 | 539 | 80 | 144 | 24 | 3 | 14 | 66 | 53 | 120 | 28 | 103 | 3.1 |
| 2027 | .264 | .330 | .394 | 538 | 80 | 142 | 24 | 2 | 14 | 66 | 54 | 117 | 27 | 101 | 3.0 |
| 2028 | .262 | .328 | .392 | 538 | 80 | 141 | 24 | 2 | 14 | 65 | 54 | 115 | 25 | 100 | 2.9 |
| 2029 | .260 | .327 | .390 | 538 | 79 | 140 | 24 | 2 | 14 | 64 | 54 | 114 | 23 | 99 | 2.7 |
| 2030 | .257 | .324 | .383 | 522 | 75 | 134 | 23 | 2 | 13 | 62 | 53 | 110 | 21 | 97 | 2.4 |
Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies
Meet Cristopher Sánchez, your runner-up in the NL Cy Young race. Paul Skenes certainly would get my vote if were a Cy Young voter this year (I’m not), but the difference between Skenes and Sánchez is smaller than most people think. Sánchez has thrown a few more innings than Skenes, and the ERA difference shrinks a bit when you consider team defense. Moreover, Sánchez is tied for the most quality starts in baseball with Bryan Woo of the Mariners. Again, Sánchez is not better than Skenes, nor is he having a better year than the Pirates right-hander, but the Phillies have survived a poor season by Aaron Nola and have a good chance of surviving the loss of Zack Wheeler in large part due to Sánchez’s ascension into acehood. Given that he’s now the top starter on a big market team that is the only club to clinch its division, it’s kind of weird that he’s not a household name yet.
| Year | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11 | 7 | 3.36 | 30 | 29 | 179.3 | 163 | 67 | 16 | 44 | 171 | 125 | 4.0 |
| 2027 | 10 | 7 | 3.45 | 29 | 28 | 172.0 | 160 | 66 | 16 | 42 | 160 | 122 | 3.6 |
| 2028 | 10 | 6 | 3.54 | 28 | 27 | 167.7 | 160 | 66 | 17 | 41 | 152 | 119 | 3.3 |
| 2029 | 9 | 7 | 3.71 | 28 | 27 | 157.7 | 155 | 65 | 17 | 39 | 140 | 114 | 2.9 |
| 2030 | 8 | 7 | 3.93 | 28 | 27 | 153.3 | 155 | 67 | 18 | 39 | 133 | 107 | 2.5 |
MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals
OK, MacKenzie Gore isn’t having an amazing season, but given how badly the Nationals have wasted his efforts, I feel there’s cause to throw out a condolence shoutout. A 2025 All-Star with a 5-14 record, the Nats have lost 19 of the 29 games he’s started this season, so if he had just been slightly less effective in a few of his no-decisions, he could’ve been on the cusp of a 20-loss season right now that would’ve had little to do with his performance. Looking at pitchers with at least 3 WAR during the 2000s, Gore has the third-most decisions below a .500 winning percentage.
| Season | Name | W | L | Decisions Below .500 | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Shelby Miller | 6 | 17 | -5.5 | 3.02 | 3.45 | 3.69 |
| 2007 | Matt Cain | 7 | 16 | -4.5 | 3.65 | 3.78 | 4.09 |
| 2025 | MacKenzie Gore | 5 | 14 | -4.5 | 4.00 | 3.64 | 3.07 |
| 2021 | Luis Castillo | 8 | 16 | -4.0 | 3.98 | 3.75 | 3.85 |
| 2000 | Chris Holt | 8 | 16 | -4.0 | 5.35 | 4.40 | 3.34 |
| 2014 | Nathan Eovaldi | 6 | 14 | -4.0 | 4.37 | 3.37 | 3.34 |
| 2010 | Doug Fister | 6 | 14 | -4.0 | 4.11 | 3.65 | 3.32 |
| 2015 | Corey Kluber | 9 | 16 | -3.5 | 3.49 | 2.97 | 5.57 |
| 2016 | Robbie Ray | 8 | 15 | -3.5 | 4.90 | 3.76 | 3.28 |
| 2002 | Mark Redman | 8 | 15 | -3.5 | 4.21 | 3.69 | 4.04 |
| 2008 | Justin Verlander | 11 | 17 | -3.0 | 4.84 | 4.18 | 3.22 |
| 2021 | Sandy Alcantara | 9 | 15 | -3.0 | 3.19 | 3.42 | 4.29 |
| 2017 | Jeff Samardzija | 9 | 15 | -3.0 | 4.42 | 3.61 | 3.77 |
| 2007 | Bronson Arroyo | 9 | 15 | -3.0 | 4.23 | 4.57 | 3.36 |
| 2006 | Aaron Cook | 9 | 15 | -3.0 | 4.23 | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| 2013 | Cole Hamels | 8 | 14 | -3.0 | 3.60 | 3.26 | 4.67 |
| 2012 | Josh Johnson | 8 | 14 | -3.0 | 3.81 | 3.40 | 3.34 |
| 2008 | Matt Cain | 8 | 14 | -3.0 | 3.76 | 3.91 | 3.65 |
| 2001 | Pedro Astacio | 8 | 14 | -3.0 | 5.09 | 4.22 | 3.20 |
| 2014 | Jeff Samardzija | 7 | 13 | -3.0 | 2.99 | 3.20 | 4.43 |
| 2024 | Garrett Crochet | 6 | 12 | -3.0 | 3.58 | 2.69 | 4.64 |
| 2016 | Michael Pineda | 6 | 12 | -3.0 | 4.82 | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| 2021 | Antonio Senzatela | 4 | 10 | -3.0 | 4.42 | 3.61 | 3.50 |
| 2002 | Ben Sheets | 11 | 16 | -2.5 | 4.15 | 3.76 | 3.83 |
| 2006 | Zach Duke | 10 | 15 | -2.5 | 4.47 | 4.13 | 3.22 |
| Year | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10 | 9 | 3.83 | 29 | 29 | 157.3 | 143 | 67 | 18 | 55 | 178 | 106 | 2.7 |
| 2027 | 10 | 9 | 3.89 | 28 | 28 | 152.7 | 142 | 66 | 18 | 51 | 169 | 105 | 2.5 |
| 2028 | 9 | 10 | 3.97 | 27 | 27 | 152.0 | 143 | 67 | 18 | 50 | 164 | 103 | 2.4 |
| 2029 | 9 | 9 | 4.06 | 27 | 27 | 146.3 | 141 | 66 | 18 | 48 | 153 | 100 | 2.2 |
| 2030 | 8 | 10 | 4.18 | 27 | 27 | 144.3 | 142 | 67 | 18 | 47 | 146 | 98 | 2.0 |
Jakob Marsee, Miami Marlins
I won’t say exactly whom I plan to vote for in the NL Rookie of the Year voting — you have to promise not to, and I think the penalty is being flayed alive — but I will say that Jakob Marsee ought to get serious consideration in a season when nobody’s having a year like Skenes or Jackson Merrill did last year. Marsee is only a few tenths of a win behind the three NL rookies who have racked up more WAR, and he has done it in less than half the plate appearances of any of them. I don’t believe that the Rookie of the Year award should be the Most Valuable Rookie of the Year award, meaning that if you’re talking greatness, then you really should care quite about wins above average and actual awesomeness, without over-prioritizing playing time. It would be totally understandable to vote for the players with more of the typical counting stats — again, I might do that, or I might not; I am not at liberty to say — but if you’re not at least seriously considering voting for Marsee, I think you’re doing your ballot a disservice.
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | .244 | .344 | .406 | 532 | 81 | 130 | 24 | 7 | 16 | 73 | 74 | 127 | 39 | 105 | 2.8 |
| 2027 | .248 | .347 | .410 | 536 | 82 | 133 | 25 | 7 | 16 | 75 | 75 | 124 | 37 | 108 | 2.9 |
| 2028 | .248 | .347 | .407 | 536 | 82 | 133 | 25 | 6 | 16 | 75 | 75 | 122 | 35 | 107 | 2.8 |
| 2029 | .249 | .347 | .409 | 531 | 81 | 132 | 25 | 6 | 16 | 74 | 74 | 119 | 32 | 107 | 2.7 |
| 2030 | .246 | .346 | .403 | 521 | 79 | 128 | 24 | 5 | 16 | 72 | 73 | 115 | 29 | 105 | 2.5 |
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
This is great. It’s a good year for runners-up! I was aware of Turang because most of his 17 million (approx.) RBI came against my team, and I was aware of Caminero because everyone loves the young-star hype, but I was honestly not at all aware how well Perdomo was doing this year. I think I’d still take the under on his ZIPS projection — he’s such an extreme contact maximizer that the risk of regressing to the mean seems large — but that isn’t meant to take away from what he’s done this year.
I have some real questions about how sustainable the improvements for Turang and Perdomo are. If you can just decide to increase your hard hit rate why doesn’t everyone do it? And I think at least some of this damage will go away once teams update their game plans. But it does seem like they should hang on to at least some of those gains. They have gone from these defense-driven 2-win players to guys who can actually punish a pitch. That should have some other benefits with their strike zone awareness.
Turang has more than quintupled his fast swing rate from the first two years – so he’s either seeing the ball better or making a conscious decision to trade some contact for power.
Perdomo’s a bit more confusing, because I don’t actually see anything in his underlying that would indicate this jump.
Probably one of those “let’s see if he can repeat it” deals with Perdomo, but his increased walk rate and lowered strikeout rate does indicate he’s made changes in his approach this year that have paid off. His BABIP is down from last year, too, so this isn’t really a luck thing. I do think ZiPS is a little too optimistic on him going forward, though.
To me he looks like a guy who’s just gotten really good at barrels.
Davy’s article sort of explains Perdomo’s improvement. I don’t think it explains whether it is repeatable, just how it happened.
Good shout – should have clarified that I can’t tell whether something’s changed or he’s just having a hell of a year.
Obviously ZiPS greatly disagrees, but I can’t sign myself up for Caminero’s profile long-term. His homers make up almost a quarter of his total times on base – there’s really no other aspect of his game. Looking for Stathead comps, there are a lot of Adam Duvall and Dave Kingman seasons. Not bad at all, but not something I’m rushing to give a nine-figure contract.
I get the skepticism over Caminero – however I think the comparisons with Duvall and Kingman are a bit off. Duvall never hit over 40 HR, while Kingman did it once. They both usually ran far higher K% – Caminero has hit 40 bombs while (just) striking out under 20%. So yes, this absolutely could be his career year, and he settles into a low OBP, high HR slugger, but he is 22.
I’d also add that Caminero’s a functional 3B.
Kingman had a 120 wRC+ through age 32 – that plus scratch DEF/BSR is a 4 WAR player.
Ketel Marte type, albeit getting there a very different way.
i think freddy peralta of the brewers deserves some attention
thanks
Poor Gore is gonna do the Bud Black revue through 2030 😕
IIRC this is the second straight year that Gore has started off the year looking like a star and then got hammered in the second half of the year.
It was a huge mistake for the Nationals not to trade him at the deadline this year. They are not going to be good during his team control years and teams like the Red Sox and Cubs were desperate at the deadline.
I guess the question is whether it’s him or his team.
I grant that I don’t follow baseball like I used to, but aside from Mad Max, I can’t recall a pitcher who hasn’t stalled out or broken under their watch.
Team has played scratch defense behind him this year, per OAA.
2025 NL Rookie of the Year Jack Dreyer seems weirder than Caleb Durbin, Jakob Marsee, or Isaac Collins but only by a little.
It feels like relievers are more plausible candidates for Rookie of the Year than for other awards because the rookie class is so uneven from year to year.
It will probably go to Drake Baldwin though. He’s been good and he has decent name recognition.
And catcher is a tougher position. 3 WAR is just good from that slot, no matter if he’s a rookie or not.
Dreyer is pretty interesting, though, maybe because the rest of the Dodgers pen outside of Vesia and Casparius (and Wrobleski too) has been such a major bummer.
Only 10,000 WAR for Jose Ramirez over the next 3,500 years?
Feels light to me, that’s less than 3 WAR per year. I’d put the over under at 12,000 WAR, which is just less than 3.5 WAR season.
I would also think the God-Emperor of Cleveland would also be able to predict exactly which pitches are coming his way. If you think Jose Ramirez is good now, wait until he knows exactly what you’re going to throw before you throw it!
He has a 232 wRC+ in 3-0 counts, I think that is probably the floor for a true talent 135 wRC+ hitter who knows every pitch and location without fail.
I kind of wonder what would happen in this case. I don’t think it’s out of the question that he would get an intentional walk 650 times a year. I think that would give you a wRC+ of about 350. But Ramírez also probably can foresee which stolen base attempts will work, so he’s probably also stealing at least 300 bags on top of that, maybe a lot more, and with basically no caught stealing scenarios.
(He would also be an absolute beast in terms of positioning himself on defense, but let’s ignore that for a second).
I don’t know exactly how much WAR that player would have but it seems like three or four of them would probably make him the most valuable player of all time. Brewer Hicklen has a wRC+ of 306 this year with one stolen base and has been worth 0.2 fWAR in 4 PAs. Multiply that times 150 and you have got probably about 30 WAR? And he’s going to have twice as many stolen bases with no caught stealing, a higher wRC+, and a few extra PAs. With 650 walks and 300 stolen bases we are probably talking about 40 WAR seasons.
If we’re talking the steps necessary to achieve perfect prescience, I’m pretty sure his true talent level would increase quite a bit in the first few years, before he’s no longer able to swing a bat!
Okay, if we’re taking this super literally then Cleveland should repeatedly clone Ramirez and have them awaken once the last one starts to stiffen up. The remainder can join the front office and they’ll have the best analytics in the game.
This particular technology also allows us to run out some all-star teams for each franchise. We could finally see how the Big Red Machine would do against modern pitching, and you could throw in other elite players too if you wanted to. Of course, they’d have to hit against a rotation of all-stars from every franchise. When they play the Phillies, they’d have to pitch against a rotation that includes not only Wheeler and Sanchez, but also Halladay, Carlton, and Schilling.
Or, you could clone Ohtani 26 times and see what happens if you taught them to play different positions (and you’d have a ridiculous pitching staff, if oft-injured). Or if you wanted to be less productive, you could run the Dee Gordon / Adam Dunn / Bartolo Colon league for real and see what happens.
Presuming they’re comfortable with the technology underlying Axlotl tanks.
Ah, what am I saying – they’re billionaires!
but how will he adapt to the marauders? to say nothing of the d-wolves
I’m pretty sure Joe Posnanski wrote a whole column devoted to how Trea Turner was a candidate for NL MVP. So at least there’s that.
I just have a hard time buying his defense going from move off the position bad (for years) to top of the league good at age 32, which is kind of a problem since the candidacy is entirely predicated on that.
He failed my eye test in the games I watched, I havent seen any Phillies fans talking up his defense all year and their fans were all about Schwarber for MVP, not him. It’s all guys who just sorted by WAR in the last month and went “hey look!”
If he’s +8 at the position next all-star break, sure, I’ll adjust my judgment. It’s still too early
His defense is good but not “top of the league good”. That’s pretty silly. Mookie Betts has been a significantly better shortstop in 2025.
I love Trea, but he’s basically producing at the same level this year as he did for the Dodgers in 2022, and he finished 11th in MVP voting that year.
In a league where Shohei Ohtani both hits and pitches, everyone else is going to have to get in line and wait for a down year.
Though I recognize the silliness of telling Dan Szymborski what ZiPS says, the ZiPS on the site has these RoS projections for wRC+: Baldwin 105, Collins 105, Durbin 100, Marsee 93. Looks to me like Marsee’s success so far has been BABIP-fueled. Still exciting if he can combine that with above-average CF defense, but still doesn’t seem as valuable as Baldwin.
At bats Marsee has half as many.
Freddy Peralta just can’t get love anywhere. He’s having a fantastic season. Hes been must start all year.
Probably the biggest barrier to a big Caminero extension with the Rays is Wander Franco…both the monetary impact and the trepidation to take another risk. They SHOULD sign him but I wonder if those are factors why they haven’t.
Does caminero know or routinely hang out with Franco? Maybe he does. I literally have no idea.
If not, it seems extremely unlikely they would make a decision specifically related to Franco as opposed to generally the likelihood of outcomes for a player this age with this profile.
Also is there any monetary impact from Franco? Isn’t he on the restricted list and not getting paid?
They are changing owners, so there are no big expenditures coming until that wraps up. And then it’s anybody’s guess how they will approach it.
Great stuff! Andy Pages putting up a 4 WAR season seems like something a lot of people would be surprised by too.
Oh, quick note: I’m not sure the right column under Mackenzie Gore’s section is accurate. It says “WAR” but those look like xFIP numbers to me.
Garcia is that rare example of a guy who always looked one minor adjustment away from breaking out actually making that adjustment and breaking out. Nice to see him getting some much deserved attention.
I would have absolutely no objection to Sanchez winning the Cy over Skenes. Pitched in meaningful games April-Sept, deeper into games on average, and in a tougher home park. It’s not like Skenes has 50 more K’s than him or anything that indicates a huge gap in high-end dominance.