Mapping a Francisco Lindor Extension

The Mets acquired Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco for little more than a song this offseason, the team’s new ownership making a splash just two months after officially taking over. A one-year rental of Lindor’s services plus Carrasco was enough to give New York an argument for being the favored squadron in the NL East in a likely battle with Atlanta. But what’s the fun of being a large-market team if you’re not going to act like one? Just like the Dodgers, who quickly moved to ink Mookie Betts for the next dozen years after their blockbuster pickup, the Mets have deep pockets and play in a city with limitless revenue potential. Keeping Lindor, if possible, ought to be the team’s priority. Reggie Jackson didn’t go into the Hall of Fame as an Oriole!

While no concrete terms or even loose parameters have leaked, both Lindor’s camp and the Mets have been interested in talking deal. Waiting around to see what happens is one option, but it’s a good deal more fun to play fantasy billionaire ourselves. I didn’t develop a projection system just to get people mad at me — at least not entirely.

Mega-star contracts are difficult because you don’t have a lot of direct comparables. Fernando Tatis Jr. signed a monster 14-year, $340 million pact with the Padres, but there are reasons he should get more than Lindor: He’s five years younger and coming off an MVP-caliber season. On the flip side, Tatis also had less leverage, with four full seasons until free agency.

The best place to start is the basic projection for Lindor from 2022 on. I’m letting ZiPS decide where the endpoint is, given that we don’t have any specifics to work with.

Right now, ZiPS projects that a Lindor extension ought to be something in the neighborhood of nine years and $279.7 million. Let’s round that up to $280 million, because what’s $300,000 between friends? It doesn’t have as flashy a bottom-line figure as the Tatis deal, but it pays Lindor more on an annual basis, and both sides take a risk by signing a contract a year in advance.

Just to get an idea about the risks at stake, here are the projections based on Lindor having his 10th-percentile and 90th-percentile projections for 2021.

In the sunnier projection, ZiPS pegs his future deal at a whopping 10 years and $371 million. The weaker year projects to lose him about $50 million on a nine-year contract. This is a larger spread than usual, simply because there’s a little more uncertainty about Lindor right now than most superstar situations. If Mike Trout were a free agent after the 2021 season, it’s hard to envision his contract getting that much larger based on this season, simply because there’s very little ceiling left. In Lindor’s case, as marvelous as he’s been throughout his career, he hasn’t established that 7.7 WAR from 2018 as his baseline expectation. In 2019, he missed essentially all of spring training and then most of April due to calf and ankle injuries, and in 2020, he lost about a hundred points of slugging percentage from the year before. Just like there’s room to go down, there’s still room for him to go up.

The Mets have more than Lindor to worry about in terms of free agents-to-be, with Michael Conforto, Marcus Stroman, and Noah Syndergaard all unsigned past 2021. But I’d argue that Lindor’s skillset is the hardest to replace. Thor comes with the big question mark coming off Tommy John surgery, Conforto is excellent but still a corner outfielder, and Stroman’s ceiling is likely a rock-solid No. 2 starter. What Lindor brings is the threat to be the best player in baseball at his position in any given season while also being the youngest of the quartet.

Even with Robinson Canó salary’s back on the books when he returns from his suspension next season, the Mets are under $100 million in guaranteed contracts for 2022. If any meeting of the minds can occur, they should ink Lindor as quickly as possible, get all parties focused on winning the World Series in 2021, and be content knowing they have an All-Star at shortstop for the next decade.