Mariners Address Center Field With Second Baseman
Shohei Ohtani. Giancarlo Stanton. Something about Shohei Ohtani, and something about Giancarlo Stanton. Given the nature of the rumor mill these past few weeks, it would’ve been easy to forget that teams have other needs. Take the Mariners, for example. The Mariners badly need a good starting pitcher. That could be Ohtani. They’re right in there, among the seven finalists. But the Mariners have also needed a center fielder. Finding a center fielder is less interesting than trying to land Ohtani, sure, but it doesn’t mean it could just be ignored. Not everything has to do with Ohtani, or Stanton. And so on Thursday, the Mariners have made a trade with the Marlins. A trade to address the other need. A creative one!
Mariners get:
- Dee Gordon
- $1 million in international slot money
Marlins get:
The Mariners’ roster lacked a center fielder. Dee Gordon isn’t a center fielder. He’s a second baseman. The Mariners will ask him to convert, so I guess that means he is a center fielder, at least by label. The Mariners are taking the chance that Gordon can pull this position switch off. From the Marlins’ side, does this need to be explained? Gordon turns 30 next April. He’s due at least $38 million over the next three years, and that could turn into $51 million over four. The Marlins wanted out. They’re all about cutting costs right now, so this is a normal trade for prospects. If, that is, you believe the Mariners had prospects to give. It’s debatable.
Oh, and there’s slot money, too. Turns out this is connected to Ohtani after all. He just can’t be escaped.
There’s a whole trade here to be evaluated on its own merits. Gordon’s a good player. Neidert could become a good player. We’ll get to that. But we can talk about the money first. The Mariners added $1 million to their available international money. Wednesday, they also added $1 million to their available international money, when they sent catcher David Banuelos to the Twins. As a result, at least for now, the Mariners could offer Ohtani a slightly larger signing bonus than any other finalist. It’s not the Rangers, anymore.
Now, this gets weird. On the one hand, we’ve been given no indication that Ohtani considers money much of a motivating factor. On the other hand, it at least looks curious that the Mariners have added $2 million over 24 hours. Especially given that it let them barely leapfrog the Rangers. Ohtani, you’d figure, can’t not care about money at all. If this is something the Mariners had to do in order to put their pursuit of Ohtani over the top, well, that justifies everything. Ohtani is that valuable. We just can’t take anything for certain. There are six other finalists. Banuelos is a real prospect, albeit in the lower levels. If the Mariners *don’t* land Ohtani, they’ll have exchanged resources for slot money they might not know what to do with. There’s a risk until Ohtani’s signature is on an actual contract.
I have no idea what to do with that. None of us have any inside information. Some people think the Mariners are the easy favorites. Others think other things. We probably all just want this to end, one way or another.
So let’s talk about Gordon. Ohtani angle aside, this is still an interesting trade. The trade itself is conventional, but the Mariners’ intention isn’t. Gordon was busted for PEDs in 2016, but he just bounced back with a good regular season as an everyday player. Gordon became an everyday player in 2014. Since then, he’s been worth about 3.2 WAR per 600 plate appearances, putting him around players like Ender Inciarte, Dexter Fowler, Joe Panik, and Kole Calhoun.
Gordon is an average or slightly below-average hitter, because he seldom walks and he seldom goes deep. He worked hard to turn himself into a defensive asset at second base, after he had problems as a shortstop. Of course, Gordon is a hell of a runner. Again, over the past four years, by baserunning runs per 600 plate appearances, Gordon ranks fourth in baseball, behind only Billy Hamilton, Jarrod Dyson, and Delino DeShields. Gordon is quick, having just finished with baseball’s fourth-fastest average sprint speed.
The Mariners see a potential center fielder. Gordon hasn’t been a center fielder. He said that he was surprised when the Mariners informed him of their plan. You could say it’s way too simplistic — Gordon is fast, so, therefore, the team thinks he can handle it. But…yeah, kind of. I mean, speed is the most important thing for a center fielder, provided eyesight is a given. Gordon has it in spades. Click on that sprint-speed leaderboard again. Six of the top ten players are center fielders, not counting Gordon. Of the top 30 players, 16 are center fielders, again not counting Gordon. The three players with higher sprint speeds than Gordon in 2017: Billy Hamilton, Byron Buxton, and Bradley Zimmer. Center field, center field, center field.
The job isn’t only based around speed. It’s also a matter of reads and instincts. Gordon has already shown his adaptability, by transitioning so well to second base. And Jerry Dipoto thinks this ought to be in his wheelhouse.
More Jerry Dipoto on converting Dee Gordon to CF pic.twitter.com/lr5DDmt51v
— Ryan Divish (@RyanDivish) December 7, 2017
It’s not like this is unprecedented. We’ve seen attempts like this before. The Nationals had their Trea Turner experiment. Billy Hamilton was a minor-league infielder before he was one of the best defensive outfielders on the planet. The same goes for Mookie Betts. The Dodgers, just this season, started trying Chris Taylor in center field. And even though the circumstances were different, the Royals converted Alex Gordon from corner infield to corner outfield, where he became defensively elite. The odds are pretty good that Gordon can do this. If anything, his range is somewhat wasted at second, with infield alignments moving around so much.
Granted, we always have to consider the possibility that Gordon won’t take to center field. That would give the Mariners an issue. There’s no easy way to then move pieces around. For me, the bigger concern isn’t about 2018. It’s more about 2019, or especially 2020. How well is Gordon’s speed going to age? It bodes well that he was still so fast at 29. But just four of the top 30 sprint speeds from 2017 came from players in their 30s. Credit to Rajai Davis, who, at 37, was still one of the 15 fastest players in baseball. Gordon might preserve his range. If he doesn’t, he’ll force the Mariners into tricky decisions.
It’s a short- and medium-term move. Gordon makes the Mariners better now, and he makes them more athletic now. This improves the Mariners’ chances of winning the wild card, and remember that they have baseball’s longest active playoff drought. There’s no question that Dipoto feels a certain urgency to make something happen. The looming problem is that the Astros aren’t going away. Ideally the Mariners would have a clearer path to first place in the division, but these are the kinds of moves they have to make, if they refuse to tear down. The farm is as empty as ever, but the major-league product is okay. And Ohtani might be just around the corner. You can’t ignore Ohtani.
Going to the Marlins, once more, are Neidert, Torres, and Dugger. Neidert is the best-looking prospect of the three. He was probably the best pitching prospect in the Mariners’ system. I got some quotes from Eric Longenhagen to help out, here, so here’s Eric on Neidert:
Neidert is 87-92 with movement, any pitch in any count. Plus changeup and command projection. Curveball is fringey but I think it plays up against righties because of his cross-bodied delivery. Scouts tend to underrate changeup/command righties because those skills tend to be more acquirable than velocity (traditionally, maybe not any more) and a breaking ball. But I think we forget that changeup and command projection apply to the guys who already have them, too. If you suddenly have a 7 change and 7 command, you have Kyle Hendricks‘ 2016 season. I think Neidert is a #4, but I think there’s more room for growth above that than others give him credit for.
On Torres:
Torres originally had a deal with the Yankees for $2mil but New York backed out, probably due to a failed physical, something with his arm. Seattle signed him later in the summer of 2014 for like $375k. His arm is fine now, I have a 6 on it. I think he stays at short or is plus at 2B, has the power to play there if he has to move. Switch-hitter, K’s a lot. Hasn’t developed as a hitter because he’s been hurt. Profile has some volatility but he’s an up the middle guy with power.
And on Dugger:
Dugger: athletic righty, 92-94, average curveball. Good arm action. Spent two years at Juco, then draft year at Texas A&M.
Eric says that Neidert and Torres were two of Seattle’s top six. Now, relative to the rest of baseball, that was a mediocre top six to begin with, but subtraction is subtraction. Neidert might have a narrow path to success, being able to afford little loss to his arm strength, but he already has command, which is important. It means he could make it, and he could make it soon.
But Neidert wasn’t going to help the 2018 Mariners as much as Dee Gordon. Neither was Torres, and neither was Dugger. They certainly weren’t going to help as much as Shohei Ohtani might be able to. The Mariners are essentially trying to stay afloat, building a product good enough they can stay in the race while the farm starts over. Give a farm three years and it can be fixed. Can the Mariners hang around for two or three years? Gordon should make that a little more likely. And Ohtani — well, we all know about that one.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Say the Gordon CF experiment doesn’t pan out. Do you put Haniger in CF? Heredia is the only other option but I wouldn’t have his bat in the lineup if it can be avoided, other than to maybe be a weak-side platoon with goldilocks.
I would guess that Haniger would be plan B. He might have been plan A if they had signed Jay.
I feel confident that Haniger could be a passable CF for two or three years. He may not be great or even below average, but over-emphasizing -5 on defense is far from a sin for a +15 sophomore.
Heredia was a damn good CF even if not Dyson out there and was really good against LHP. If the team feels he’ll never be serviceable enough vR (which may be true), then they definitely need someone else out there for 80% of the time. Ah, heck. The Gordon trade may have just been to buy enough time to see if Heredia makes any growth vR is winter-ball or something. I don’t know.
I know a lot of middle infielders do well when converted to the outfield, but normally those conversions happen at lower price points than this.
Keep in mind a lot of Gordon’s strength over the last couple years has been his defense. There is no way to know that he’ll be as good in center as he was at 2nd base.
I can’t tell whether Dipoto is a total genius for solving center field like this or if he’s too clever by half. I’m probably not the only one who can’t make up their mind about this.
Someone might be able to look at how Gordon did on fly balls? Maybe that would shed some light on this? Any scouts in the house who have some insight?
On the Marlins side, they got an actual prospect and got to dump Gordon’s salary so they must be pretty pleased with themselves.
I have a feeling this is much more about the IFA money than solving center for Dipoto. Solving center could have been done by re-signing Dyson at 2/20 rather than trading three prospects for a conversion project making 3/38. Dipoto is just that desperate for the IFA money. If they get Ohtani, then it’s obviously worth it. Otherwise I don’t like this deal at all for the M’s.
Dyson has to be platooned, though, and is around 4 years older, if I’m not mistaken. But I generally feel the same way about this deal.
Seems like he could have done something less costly to pry another million out of the Twins if this were the case. They’re still sitting on a pile.
I wonder what the general reaction would be if, say, the Mariners signed Tyler Chatwood, and the Cubs got Dee Gordon to play in the outfield.
Positive?
It’s not as if the Cubs already have like 6 outfielders or anything…
Considering the Mariners desperately need pitchers with a pulse in the rotation, I would like that deal way more for the Mariners than for the Cubs, simply because they’re so dang desperate. Even at the same price tag.
I think I would like the Cubs trading for Dee Gordon less, though. Almora might be able to learn to hit righties if he plays against them more, and if he doesn’t you want someone you know can play the position as a fallback (Jon Jay). Dyson would also be a great platoon option with Almora.
This logic may or may not be what I actually say on Earth-Two where this actually occurs.
There’s a special edition of “The Wheelhouse” out now, discussing the details on Gordon. Dipoto stated that someone asked him if he’d seen him track down fly balls from 2B. He told Jerry not to worry, he gets them all.
“provided eyesight is a given”
Tommy Pham would like a word
CF is the one position on the field in which Dee Gordon couldn’t outplay Adam Dunn for a Gold Glove, so buyer beware…
Jarrod Dyson and Gordon both project for 85 wRC+ next season, they’re basically equal as baserunners, and we know, rather than speculating, that Dyson’s a plus CF. Oh, and Dyson would probably cost less than $13M next season (and definitely fewer than 3 years) and would’ve enabled Seattle to keep one of its best prospects. I’m sure the Mariners believe that Gordon projects as more than an 85 wRC+ guy, but even if he’s 90-95, I don’t see how that’s a significant enough upgrade to warrant this trade. He’s even got the terrible against LHP, so probably should be platooned trait. If they wanted to create a potential Jarrod Dyson, why not just re-sign the real one?
I like Dyson, myself, but I imagine the Mariners are thinking about how Gordon is about four years younger, and didn’t have Dyson’s 2017 injury problems.
And Dyson can’t hit LHP.
Gordon’s no good either, but, yeah, woof
In the last three calendar years, Gordon has hit LHP just as well as Dyson has hit RHP (92 vs 94).
I’m almost positive he has a career batting average over .300…
My first thought was that maybe Gordon wouldn’t require a platoon partner, and that that may have been a motivating factor, but as Jeff noted, Gordon’s terrible against LHP too. Not Dyson bad (no one is), but probably requires a RHH CF on the roster either way
The durability concerns I didn’t think of, but I’m not sure the age difference should matter all that much to Seattle, given where they’re at on the win curve, unless they have reason to believe Dyson’s on the verge of breaking down by 2018. He still rated really well by sprint speed and was fantastic on the bases and in the outfield, though, so, at least based on the public metrics, I don’t see why he wouldn’t profile all that much worse than he did last year
What’s weird is that the Mariners have no real interesting middle infielders in their system now, yet just a few years ago, they were loaded. Hopefully Seager, Segura, Cano, and Gordon stay healthy and productive long enough to buy Jerry time to find their replacements.
And then there’s the pitching. They have a lot of interesting relievers, despite trading several away, but they’re going to have to buy starters whether or not they get Ohtani.
I hope this works, and it’s easy to see how it could–especially with Ohtani. But man, lot risk involved. Gutting the farm further to bank on a semi-expensive conversion project. Not what I would have conjured up. I suppose I will feel differently if they land Ohtani, though.
The history is interesting. Billy Hamilton played one season of CF in the minors and was immediately a +10 CF, and Betts and Taylor took real quick to the OF as well.
So the history of success for these kind of moves is outstanding. Are we missing any failed conversions though? Hanley Ramirez is the one who comes to mind, though at that point in his career he was hardly a speed guy.
Jose Ramirez played a good portion of 2016 in LF and wasn’t much good at it iirc. Of course, he went right back to being an effective 3B and then kept getting better, and Gordon doesn’t have any versatility if he’s not good in the OF. He doesn’t have the arm for 3B, and his past work at short doesn’t inspire confidence. And the Mariners would sooner chew glass than play him over a healthy Cano.
Obviously the problem is with guys named Ramirez.
If push came to shove, and he was an embarrassment in even the corner outfield, they could probably slide Cano to 1B.
Two from the past few years come to mind that weren’t full-on failed conversions but more of abandoned attempts to add versatility.
The Cardinals tried Kolten Wong in the outfield in 2016, and I don’t think that he was particularly good there defensively. Not full on terrible, but clearly less valuable defensively than staying at second. He didn’t play in the outfield at all in 2017. He didn’t have enough time in the outfield for the defensive stats to mean anything at all, but that’s what I recall being the organization’s view.
IIRC, the Cubs at one point had the idea that Javier Baez could play in the outfield as part of his super sub role but pretty much gave up on it. I don’t remember, however, if he was so much bad at it as just better enough at playing infield that the Cubs thought it made more sense to move other guys around.
I assume that the failed conversion attempts generally happen either in the minors or in spring training so we don’t hear about them as much as the conversions that worked.
Craig Biggio spent a year and a half as a bad CF and then a half year as a bad LF at the end of his career. Considerably older than Gordon, but we don’t have a lot of post-prime 2B->CF transitions to choose from.
My sense is that we get a lot of selection bias here, because players who didn’t succeed in the OF were just moved back to the IF before spring training was up/they called up to the majors. Unfortunately, that’s not much of an option here.
Those players were also quite a bit younger. I don’t know whether that has anything to do with it or if it just reflects a willingness to experiment more with player positions when they’re cheap.
@sadtrombone: Someone – maybe you – made a similar point recently about “airball revolution” players who were marginal major leaguers prior to making swing changes to increase launch angle.
We don’t hear about the players who are the opposite side of the coin from Justin Turner or J.D. Martinez, because if they aren’t successful from trying to improve launch angle (strikeout too much to offset the value of when they do make contact, etc.), then they just disappear as more washed-out guys who never quite made it in the majors.
That wasn’t me, but I remember it and strongly agree with that point. The classic example I remember is Garin Cecchini, who was actually a prospect until he tried a swing change and it totally destroyed him. It’s an n=1, but it is also a black swan case that shows the limitations of how we analyze swing changes.
In general, we’re way too inclined to ignore selection bias in sports where there’s lots of experimentation but failure is given a very short leash.
Actually, I’m thinking selection bias might play less of a factor here, because the value of a middle infielder means that a promising young player typically stays there unless they were blocked. When they make the move, it means they had some skills that were so exceptional that it justified losing them from the infield just to get them in the lineup.
Of the examples given in this thread, Biggio wasn’t much of a runner by the time he moved to the OF, and Kolten Wong was only moderately fast. Baez didn’t have meaningful OF time, so Jose Ramirez is the only one who’s even close to Dee Gordon’s profile.
Shortstops stay at that position if they can handle it defensively, but I don’t agree that teams prize second basemen over centerfielders.
As an indication of that, 2B and CF (as well as 3B) have the same positional adjustment for Fangraphs WAR (each +2.5). In fact, those three positions are the three to which shortstops typically move if they can’t handle shortstop defensively in the minors, depending on an individual player’s particular skillset.
I concur with Dave T on this. 2B, 3B and CF are all lateral moves and going from one to one of the others usually involves much more risk than reward unless the player is young and/ or fringey at the “old” position. A young 2B without the arm for 3B or the hands to continue forward might move to CF if the organization feels he might at least have the ability to read a flyball and become a Bernie Williams/ Kenny Lofton-type CF (all range, no arm).
The Bavasi Mariners decided to switch around Jose Lopez and Chone Figgins for no real reason and it blew up in the faces almost too well. Interestingly enough, the same group decided to try Dustin Ackley in CF and it, again, blew up in their faces. Granted, in this case, Ackley was a horrible hitter who needed to salvage his career, was blocking shinier and very-ready prospects.
Juan Lagares, too. It’s obviously not automatic but it does seem like the position-change success rate for speedy middle infielders as CF is notably high.
Dee Gordon feels like Chone Figgins 2.0 to me. Similar hitters, although Chone had better plate discipline. He was also a great defender in the infield, but was pretty bad in the outfield despite his speed. Hopefully this works out better for the Mariners than that did.
Figgins wasn’t that bad in the OF. He was horrible at 2B and had a good year at 3B, though. It was also a completely different organization.
That said, while it isn’t apples-to-apples, I don’t see this potential experiment working out, either. I am more inclined to think Dee Gordon will be shipped out from Seattle long before he plays a game in Center, though.
These types of trades are the ones you can expect the Mariners to make, or Dipoto to make. It makes sense if they wanted to move Cano to first base and protect him a bit, but thankfully they took Ryon Healy off our hands and now are somewhat forced to commit to that move also. It also means Dyson is a free agent and per Beane a RHOF is now available. that said Dyson is probably a Rajaj Davis type signing at current trim.
It also makes sense in the “Dipoto loves to create himself excess to trade from”. In the past, it’s been RP, the occasional SP and OF. Now, it’s an established MLB 2B. I can’t help but think if he can get a more real CF and/ or anything more valuable than a Nick Neidert, he’ll take that trade and ease Godon’s anxieties about position-changing.
You know who else was very fast? Shane Victorino and Jonny Damon. And Nori Aoki.
Disappointing that you build an argument upon all the fast players who are successful in CF, but completely ignore all the fast players who are terrible out there.
Center field requires way more than speed. I remain skeptical that Dee Gordon can become a positive-value in CF, defensively.
Shane Victorino was slightly above average for his career in CF, and a lot above average in RF.
Damon was fine in CF in his youth.
Nori Aoki was never very fast.
All those statements sound nice but unfortunately they are all factually incorrect.
Johnny Damon had a negative UZR for his career of -42 in CF. He had a negative UZR every year except his debut.
Shane Victorino was plagued by inconsistent glove work and tracking abilities, which is why he has as many negative UZRs as he does positive, and that’s why he has a UZR/150 of only 2.7.
Nori Aoki’s speed is discussed by many scouts and sources, such as this one: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/11/10/7171223/nori-aoki-baserunning-outs-offense-steals-caught-stealing
For example, Aoki led the league in infield hits, a pretty good measure of his speed.
You might be looking at his baserunning, which would make sense because he’s a terrible baserunner. But he’s quite fast. His baserunning is held down by poor decision-making and awkward slides.
Johnny Damon had a negative UZR for his career of -42 in CF. He had a negative UZR every year except his debut.
Johnny Damon debuted in 1995. UZR debuted in 2002.
Shane Victorino was plagued by inconsistent glove work and tracking abilities, which is why he has as many negative UZRs as he does positive,
Actually, counting seasons where he had reasonable samples of CF work, he has 4 positive seasons and 2 negative seasons by UZR.
I don’t think I need to explain why 110-inning seasons don’t count as reasonable samples.
and that’s why he has a UZR/150 of only 2.7.
So, he was slightly above average for his career in CF.
For example, Aoki led the league in infield hits, a pretty good measure of his speed.
I’m not convinced that is a measure of elite speed. Aoki is not slow by any means, but I don’t think of him as being in the Hamilton-Gordon-Burns class, and I think his home-to-first times have as much to do with his way of hitting as his running. Jose Iglesias is another one who regularly appears on home-to-first leaderboards, despite not having real elite speed.
By the way, funny you posted the link to that article which included this sentence:
“His wheels have translated to fairly good defense as he has a career UZR of +8.3 and DRS of +10 to his credit.”
If anything, Aoki is the poster child of the outfielder who was able to put up positive defensive value for a few years thanks to his speed, despite his ridiculous routes.
Alfonso Soriano moved from being a bad 2B to having a 3 year run of +55 UZR +37 DRS as a left fielder during his age 30-32 seasons.
Dee Gordon should be fine. More upside than downside on his defensive performance.
I remember looking at Soriano’s outfield numbers in bWAR, fWAR, and WARP at the time. I do not remember which was which, but one thought he was great, one thought he was mediocre, and one thought he was awful. Grain of salt and all that.
I’d guess the conversion plan is more likely to work than not. But I wondered….did Lorenzo Cain come up as an alternative? Would he have cost so much more than Gordon? And he’s basically the same offensive player, with a record as a defensive CF no one has to guess at. While this may turn out OK for Seattle, I just think they could have found a better alternative for around the same outlay of resources.
In the podcast, Dipoto implied they inquired for trades, then at free agents, but presumable couldn’t find a price they were willing to pay. Only then did they go the creative route.
Cain is likely to go 18 to 20 million. He’s elite at CF but you can easily raise a point about his defensive performance trending downward. He’s also 2 years older than Gordon. The pool money is a factor as well.
thanks you, that’s all very relevant. 5-7 million more per season for Cain over Gordon, and even though his defensive output is trending down, it STILL has to be predicted, today, to be a lot better than Gordon’s. Cain’s OPA+ in 2017 was 112, and lifetime he’s at 106. Gordon last year was 94, and lifetime OPS+ is 93. l don’t agree with the choice of Gordon over Cain, although it’s not as simple as I made it seem in my first post as you pointed out. And Seattle would also lose their 1st round draft pick by signing Cain…and the million bucks in international money might put them over the top for Ohtani. Or it might not. At the end of the day, I’d still rather have Cain for this team. Better defense, much better offense…the plusses, IMO, more than offset the minuses.
Dee should have no trouble switching to CF. It’s not that hard. Tell him, Wash.
Jeff hit this some in his article but I think people are underestimating the skill it takes to play outfield sometimes. Its more than just speed. Maybe in 2 years Dee Gordon able to make up his lack of experience with his speed but by then I expect his speed to start dropping off. I bet he hasn’t played the outfield since Little League. Getting a good read on a ball is going to be challenging for someone who probably hasn’t played the position in 15+ years.
Are we sure that the Mariners are really going to keep Gordon and have him play CF? Given DiPoto’s history, it seems entirely possible that he made the trade for the international dollars, and thinks he can flip him for (at least) equal value at some point over the off-season.
There’s one thing I just absolutely can’t help but think about and it’s something I’ve brought up in sub-thread comments here already. Is the angle that Dipoto acquired Gordon just to trade him again really so much more preposterous than moving him to CF?
Why isn’t that being brought up in these analysis articles? Every fiber of my being says it’s more logical than moving him — especially when looking at the tenures of some players acquired by Dipoto. Many don’t last a month. Ah, heck. Especially given that there are so many other potential pluses to getting Gordon (the Int’l Pool money at the time; the cost of only an interesting B- prospect and two namelesses), it just makes sense.
Gordon and Cano are surplus together. Gordon is relatively cheap for the value he brings and Dipoto loves to create these surpluses so he can trade more easily. I just can’t help but think people should be thinking about what organizations need/ could use a 2B and have a surplus of any of the following:
– 1B
– SP
– OF
There have to be at least 2 teams out there for a bidding war to start. And with the Yankees just trading Marte away for Stanton, there’s at least one longshot match.