Mariners Deal Sewald, Pollock in Pair of Trades With NL West Contenders

One day before the trade deadline, the Mariners kept busy by swinging a couple of trades with a pair of NL West contenders. They dealt closer Paul Sewald to the Diamondbacks in exchange for a three-player package — infielder Josh Rojas, outfielder Dominic Canzone, and middle infield prospect Ryan Bliss — that should help fill some holes in their lineup. To create the space necessary to fit the first two of them onto their 40-man roster, they also sent outfielder AJ Pollock, infielder Mark Mathias, and cash considerations to the Giants for a player to be named later.

Neither of the moves are blockbusters, and it’s worth noting the extent to which these three teams are clustered by record but have divergent Playoff Odds. A year after breaking their 20-season playoff drought, the Mariners (55–51) have played sluggishly; even with a 17–9 July, they’re a longshot for the playoffs, with 18.8% odds entering Tuesday morning. They’re fourth in the AL West, five games out of first place, and 3.5 back in the Wild Card race, with five teams ahead of them and in a tie with the Yankees. The moves they made could help them this year, but aren’t impactful enough to change their fate; they may help more down the road.

The upstart Diamondbacks (57–50), who were in sole possession of first place in the NL West as recently as July 8, made the more aggressive of the deals, befitting their need to improve their lot. They’re third in the NL West, 3.5 games out of first and in a three-way tie with the Brewers and Marlins for the third Wild Card spot. The Giants (58–49) are in the most comfortable position of the three teams: second in the NL West, 2.5 games out of first, and occupying the top NL Wild Card spot. Their trade might not amount to much more than taking a couple of flyers with comparatively little risk involved, and the possibility that a more substantial deal on Tuesday may make this one a footnote.

The 33-year-old Sewald was in the midst of his third straight strong campaign with the Mariners, having emerged as a reliable late-inning option since signing with the team as a free agent in January 2021. Originally drafted by the Mets in the 10th round in 2012 out of the University of San Diego, he spent parts of four seasons with the team (2017–20), getting knocked around for a 5.50 ERA but posting a 4.04 FIP thanks to a solid 23.5% strikeout rate. In three years with Seattle, he pitched to a 2.88 ERA and 3.35 FIP, boosting that strikeout rate to 35% and saving a total of 52 games.

Sewald’s Seattle breakout owes to a makeover set in motion by Mariners pitching coach Pete Woodworth, bullpen coach Trent Blank, and director of analytics Joel Firman, with a goal of getting him to use his low-90s fastball at the top of the strike zone and to swap his deep-breaking slider for a more horizontally oriented sweeper. To get there, Sewald adopted a lower release point, which added deception to his delivery and helped him increase the spin rate and velocity of his fastball as well as the horizontal movement of his new sweeper. He became a poster child for the concept of vertical approach angle (VAA), the angle at which a pitch crosses home plate; by flattening out his VAA, he helped the pitch play better at the top of the strike zone. Lookout Landing’s Michael Ajeto and our own Jake Mailhot have written a lot about Sewald’s emergence. Here you can see how some of the specs of his four-seam fastball changed, along with the results:

Sewald is throwing his fastball from a lower release point than ever — about four inches lower than in 2020, his final season with the Mets, and a hair lower than last year. Only three pitchers have a lower VAA on their four-seamers: Adam Cimber (-2.3 degrees), Jose Cuas (-3.2), and Tim Hill (-3.2), with Alexis Díaz tied with Sewald at -3.5. With the changes, Sewald has been more effective than ever. In 43 innings, he’s put up a 2.93 ERA and a career-low 2.88 FIP, driven by a 35.5% strikeout rate and a career-low 1.05 homers per nine; that last mark is a substantial improvement over 2021–22, when he served up 1.4 homers per nine. Hitters are barreling just 4.4% of their batted balls off him, a rate that places him in the 92nd percentile and represents a steep drop from his rates of 12.6% in 2021 and 9.4% last year. His 26.3% hard-hit rate places him in the 98th percentile and is down from 40% in 2021 and 33.6% last year. His 1.94 xERA is in a virtual tie with Josh Hader for second among all relievers with at least 40 innings, with Félix Bautista (1.72) the only one lower.

All of which is to say that Sewald is a very good reliever, something in short supply in the Diamondbacks bullpen, which entered Monday with the NL’s fourth-highest ERA (4.49) and seventh-highest FIP (4.29); they’ve been prone to allowing home runs (1.16 per nine, third-highest) and have struck out a middling 23.8% of hitters (eighth). Manager Torey Lovullo has not had a set closer, instead taking a matchup-based approach using righties Miguel Castro, Kevin Ginkel, and Scott McGough, as well as lefty Andrew Chafin. Chafin and McGough have each saved eight games, Castro seven, and Ginkel three. With Sewald, who has converted 21 out of 24 save chances, Lovullo now has a go-to closer, bumping the aforementioned quartet into setup roles.

Sewald, who is making $4.1 million this year, has one more year of club control remaining, so he didn’t exactly come cheap, but none of the three players heading to Seattle is anything close to an impact player. The 29-year-old Rojas, who will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, is hitting a dismal .228/.292/.296 (61 wRC+), has yet to homer in 216 PA, and has plunged to -0.1 WAR. That’s quite a comedown after last year’s career-high 2.7 WAR, set as he hit .269/.349/.391 (108 wRC+) with nine homers and 23 steals. This year, his 86.9 mph average exit velocity, 3.4% barrel rate, and 26% hard-hit rate are his worst numbers since getting a foothold in the majors in 2021.

Rojas has primarily played third base the past two seasons but can play second as well, and for as weak as his offense has been, he looks like Jose Altuve next to Kolten Wong, whose weak offense (.165/.241/.227, 36 wRC+) helped the team land on the Replacement Level Killers second base list. Presumably Rojas will take over the long half of a platoon with pesky righty José Caballero (.228/.353/.329, 103 wRC+).

The 25-year-old Canzone is a lefty-swinging outfielder who was chosen in the eighth round of the 2019 draft out of Ohio State and entered the year at no. 33 on the Diamondbacks Top Prospects list as a 35+ FV prospect. He was recently upgraded to a 40 FV on the Board, having improved his stock by hitting .354/.431/.634 (149 wRC+) with 16 homers in his second go-round at Triple-A Reno, producing a 90 mph average exit velocity with an impressive 13% barrel rate and .596 xSLG. While he’s somewhat chase-prone, with a 33.5% O-Swing%, he trimmed his Triple-A strikeout rate from 20.3% last year to 13.2% this year and improved his walk rate from 7.7% to 12.8%. Recalled in early July, he got a taste of major league action, hitting .237/.293/.368 (79 wRC+) with one homer and a 19.5% strikeout rate in 41 PA; prior to going 0-for-3 on Sunday, he had three two-hit games in a row, the last two of them (ahem) against the Mariners.

Canzone’s only plus tool is his raw power, but if things go right, he has a chance to be useful corner platoon piece in the Matt Joyce or Seth Smith mold. For the moment, he could serve as part of a solution in left field as the Mariners try to withstand the loss of Jarred Kelenic, who is out until September after fracturing his left foot by kicking a water cooler. That said, 26-year-old lefty Cade Marlowe has been getting most of the work (six starts in seven games) in left, though it’s worth noting that right fielder Teoscar Hernández could be on the move before the closing bell rings on Tuesday.

The third player in this deal is Bliss, a 2021 second-round pick out of Auburn. The 23-year-old, who lists at 5-foot-6 and 165 pounds, entered the year at no. 25 on the Diamondbacks prospect list as a 40 FV prospect. Though he played 10 games at shortstop at Double-A Amarillo, he’s really a second base-only defender who’s pretty rough at the keystone; he could get a look in center field down the road to increase his utility. He’s chase-prone (30% this year) and has 45-grade raw power, but he’s a spray hitter who adjusts well to breaking balls and has good speed. Promoted to Reno after hitting a sizzling .358/.414/.594 (162 wRC+) with 12 homers and 30 steals at Double-A Amarillo, he’s scuffled thus far (.196/.274/.357 in 62 PA).

Notably, Bliss doesn’t need to be added to the 40-man roster until after next season. The Mariners did need to make room for an extra body, so they sent Pollock and Mathias to the Giants to clear space. The 35-year-old Pollock, whom the Mariners signed to a one-year, $7 million deal in January, has been a disappointment, hitting just .173/.225/.323 (51 wRC+) in 138 PA and recently landing on the IL due to a left hamstring strain, though he could be activated as soon as Tuesday. With Mitch Haniger on the IL due to a fractured right forearm and with Mike Yastrzemski landing on the IL on Monday due to a hamstring strain, the Giants’ outfield depth has been depleted, and they landed on the Killers list for both left field and center. Their preference was for a righty-hitting outfielder, and Pollock does swing from the right side, though his hitting has been going downhill; after posting a 137 wRC+ with the Dodgers in 2021, he sank to 92 (.245/.292/.389) with the White Sox last year. Presumably the cash considerations for this deal are to cover the lion’s share of his remaining salary in hopes of bringing back a prospect in return.

“Obviously, he hasn’t had a great season in Seattle,” Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said of Pollock, whom he knows from the pair’s days with the Dodgers. “But we kind of look at sort of some of the underlying measures of plate discipline, of how he’s moving around the field. His sprint speeds are good. We just view him as a really good change of scenery candidate.”

As for Mathias, he’s a 28-year-old utilityman who has been on the move lately. At last year’s deadline, he was traded from the Brewers to the Rangers, then in March from the Rangers to the Pirates; the Mariners selected him off waivers on July 2. He never made a big league appearance for them but did play 16 games at Triple-A Tacoma. After hitting .247/.319/.506 with six homers in 91 PA split between Milwaukee and Texas last year, he hit just .231/.355/.269 in 62 PA for Pittsburgh this year but has hit .299/.405/.427 in Triple-A, showing good plate discipline via a 14.2% walk rate. He’ll report to Triple-A Sacramento and could see time with the Giants as they sort through the options in their middle infield.

Given general manager Jerry Dipoto’s reputation, we probably haven’t seen the last of his deadline moves, as he may emerge with another ninth-inning option, but by trading their closer at this juncture, the Mariners may well be perceived as putting up a white flag. In dealing Sewald, they’re certainly giving up a good player, but they’re also trading from strength given their ability to mint relievers. That’s a not-so-subtle acknowledgement of their need to compensate for their struggle to develop useful position players, and for having taken a jarringly underwhelming approach to upgrading their roster after last year’s excitement. We’ll see if they do anything on Tuesday that moves the needle on their chances at getting back to the playoffs.