Mariners Grab Luis Castillo From Reds in Five-Player Deal
After a small amuse-bouche in the form of an Andrew Benintendi trade to get our deadline appetites drooling in anticipation, the Mariners have served up a mighty entrée in the form of landing Luis Castillo, arguably the best pitcher plausibly available this week, in a late Saturday trade. Heading the quartet of players heading to Cincinnati is shortstop Noelvi Marte, the No. 11 prospect both on the midseason update on The Board and in my preseason ZiPS Top 100 Prospects. Joining Marte is shortstop Edwin Arroyo, starting pitcher Levi Stoudt, and reliever Andrew Moore.
Castillo’s season got off to a rocky start thanks to lingering issues with a sore shoulder. Those are always concerning, but he was able to debut in early May after a thankfully eventless rehab stint. After some spotty command in his first game back, he’s been absolutely solid, making his second All-Star team this year; in 14 starts for the Reds, he has struck out 90 batters against 28 walks, putting up an ERA of 2.86, a FIP of 3.20, and 2.1 WAR. That’s enough for 16th in the NL despite Castillo not debuting until Cincinnati’s 29th game. While it wouldn’t impress Old Hoss Radbourn or Amos Rusie, Castillo is a workhorse by 2022’s standards, finishing the fifth inning in every start since his first one and boasting a streak of four consecutive games of at least seven innings, with three of the four opponents (Braves, Rays, Yankees) being quite dangerous.
Naturally, landing Castillo makes Seattle’s rotation a considerably more dangerous unit. ZiPS gives it an even bigger boost than our depth charts do, bumping it from 18th in the league in projected rest-of-season WAR to 10th. Overall, ZiPS thought the Mariners were a .527 team going into the season, and now my projections see them as a .545 team with an 84% chance of making the playoffs, up from 76%. This move is more about making the team as dangerous in the playoffs as possible; the Mariners could add Juan Soto, too, and the math of an 11-game deficit would still make winning the AL West a tough road.
As exciting as it is to see the Mariners do whatever they can to push themselves over the top this season, this move may even be a bigger deal for the 2023 season. Pencil in $15 million for Castillo’s salary, and the M’s have a committed luxury tax number of just around $115 million, with only Adam Frazier and Mitch Haniger as significant free agents. Having a solid rotation already put together gives Seattle nearly unlimited options this winter.
| Player | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo | 13 | 7 | 3.09 | 28 | 28 | 163.0 | 133 | 56 | 13 | 59 | 177 | 135 | 4.1 |
| Robbie Ray | 12 | 9 | 3.44 | 31 | 31 | 183.3 | 141 | 70 | 28 | 57 | 230 | 121 | 3.9 |
| Logan Gilbert | 11 | 9 | 3.79 | 30 | 30 | 159.0 | 145 | 67 | 22 | 45 | 159 | 110 | 2.8 |
| George Kirby | 6 | 6 | 3.95 | 25 | 25 | 134.3 | 129 | 59 | 25 | 22 | 137 | 105 | 2.1 |
| Chris Flexen | 9 | 9 | 4.34 | 29 | 27 | 151.3 | 157 | 73 | 21 | 44 | 113 | 96 | 1.7 |
| Marco Gonzales | 10 | 11 | 4.66 | 27 | 27 | 148.7 | 152 | 77 | 26 | 47 | 101 | 89 | 1.1 |
Whether the 2022 season ends in champagne or sadness, I think this season will go down as one of the finest chapters of President of Baseball Ops Jerry Dipoto’s career. While the Mariners winning 90 games in 2021 was fun, when it’s time to make the hard decisions, it would have been malpractice to consider this roster a 90-win team rather than one a lot closer to the 76 wins that run differential actually suggested. Instead of clinging to the notion that Seattle had 90-win talent on the roster and simply had to bring back the same roster and let the playoff appearances pile in, the front office approached last winter as if there were a lot of work to do. Before the lockout, the Mariners acquired Frazier from the Padres and then swooped in to ink the reigning AL Cy Young winner in Ray to a five-year, $115 million contract. When the offseason (eventually) resumed, they picked up Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suárez, also from the Reds, in a six-player trade. And when it was abundantly clear that the minors were too small to contain Julio Rodríguez’s talent, he was in the Opening Day lineup rather than hanging out with the Tacoma Rainiers, waiting out any service time games. Similarly, the team approached the decision of how to use Kirby from the viewpoint of “how fast can he be in Seattle” rather than “how long can we justify keeping him in the minors.”
As you have probably surmised, I’m a big fan of both this trade and the more general approach to Seattle’s team-building this year. So how ’bout them Reds?
In terms of the pure value returned for Castillo, the Reds did very well. Prying a prospect ranked anywhere near the top 10 is a Herculean task, and Marte wasn’t the only prospect going to Cincy. He has a lot of power for a 20-year-old shortstop, and he’s not just a shortstop in a theoretical sense; he’s very likely to stick at the position over the long haul.
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | .244 | .310 | .384 | 562 | 74 | 137 | 19 | 0 | 20 | 85 | 46 | 174 | 11 | 79 | -1 | 0.9 |
| 2024 | .250 | .317 | .412 | 539 | 75 | 135 | 21 | 0 | 22 | 89 | 46 | 165 | 10 | 88 | -1 | 1.5 |
| 2025 | .258 | .327 | .443 | 542 | 80 | 140 | 22 | 0 | 26 | 99 | 49 | 161 | 10 | 98 | 0 | 2.3 |
| 2026 | .262 | .332 | .464 | 543 | 83 | 142 | 23 | 0 | 29 | 104 | 51 | 163 | 10 | 104 | 0 | 2.8 |
| 2027 | .259 | .333 | .457 | 540 | 83 | 140 | 23 | 0 | 28 | 103 | 53 | 166 | 9 | 103 | 0 | 2.7 |
| 2028 | .258 | .336 | .457 | 532 | 83 | 137 | 22 | 0 | 28 | 102 | 56 | 166 | 9 | 103 | 0 | 2.8 |
ZiPS isn’t sure about the rest of Marte’s offensive game other than solid speed — he still has a lot of development ahead of him — but a player with his power potential and at least competence with the glove in the middle infield is a player you ought not bet too much against.
| Year | W | L | S | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 10 | 11 | 0 | 5.36 | 29 | 29 | 136.0 | 144 | 81 | 28 | 52 | 115 | 88 | 0.8 |
| 2024 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 5.29 | 26 | 27 | 122.7 | 127 | 72 | 24 | 46 | 105 | 89 | 0.8 |
| 2025 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 5.19 | 26 | 27 | 122.7 | 126 | 71 | 24 | 45 | 107 | 91 | 0.9 |
| 2026 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5.25 | 24 | 24 | 111.7 | 115 | 65 | 22 | 41 | 98 | 90 | 0.8 |
| 2027 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5.22 | 23 | 23 | 108.3 | 110 | 63 | 22 | 40 | 96 | 90 | 0.8 |
| 2028 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 5.25 | 22 | 22 | 102.3 | 103 | 60 | 21 | 37 | 92 | 90 | 0.7 |
My colleague Eric Longenhagen has written in the past that Stoudt “may begin his big league career as a short-outing starter and shift to the bullpen as his options dwindle.” The projections don’t tell a very different story than that. Stoudt hasn’t been particularly dominating in the minors, and ZiPS sees his average outcome being a back-of-a-rotation starter. As a reliever, his ERA+ projections improve into the low 100s, giving him solid odds of being a roughly average long man at the back of a bullpen.
Arroyo is another shortstop with power, though not in Marte’s league, and it’s still uncertain whether he sticks at short. The Andrew Moore in this trade is not the former Mariners starter, now in the Blue Jays’ organization, but a hard-throwing JUCO project drafted in 2021. He’s made a lot of progress this season; a walk rate of 4.7 per nine, hardly a celebratory number for most pitchers, is practically a revelation after he walked 18 batters in 19 1/3 innings last year. Even in college, he walked seven batters a game. The Reds love these types of projects, so it’s not surprising to see a prospect like him in a trade.
(Eric has a full prospect piece here.)
My complaint about the Reds isn’t this trade, which is actually fine, but the circumstances that led to this trade becoming a necessary evil. The 2021 Reds were a flawed team, but there was a lot of talent there to build on; I’d argue that they actually went into the offseason with a stronger roster for the 2022 season than the Mariners did. But whereas Seattle rose to the challenge to invest in the team and get into serious playoff contention, Cincinnati’s owner instead slammed the contention window shut so quickly that they’re still finding shards of glass on I-71. The analyst in me appreciates that both sides did well on technical merit, but Cincy’s cynical, soulless year forces me to knock serious points off their score.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Step 1. Acquire middle infield depth
Step2. ????
Step 3. Profit
You acquire the best players you can. Marte can play 3B. McLain 2B, Barrero CF and De La Cruz SS. If all 4 of these make it and Arroyo does too then this is a great problem to have.
The Reds mostly stockpiled third basemen in the past so this seems like a step up.
(I am not at all convinced that Marte or De La Cruz are going to be middle infielders, or even infielders at all)
Yes. Pretty much. That’s why teams draft SS and CF and give the side-eye to young 1B/LF who don’t hit like Bonds.
Any reference involving South Park is appreciated. Thank you, jingram.
I really don’t see the point of criticizing past actions of the Reds. I get that it’s always popular around these parts to blame teams for not spending money – particularly with those whose livelihoods depend on the state of the sport – but the Reds weren’t going anywhere before and they aren’t going anywhere now. They don’t have anywhere near the talent of Milwaukee or St. Louis, and they will never have the resources of Chicago or St. Louis.
Further, the Reds made some serious efforts at recent playoff success in 2018 to 2020 – the Moustakas and Castellanos contracts immediately come to mind, along with trading for Trevor Bauer, giving out more than $100 million in contracts – and it didn’t work out. Small market teams can’t spend money every year, they have contend in cycles.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/04/offseason-in-review-cincinnati-reds-11.html
Constantly criticizing teams for not spending money even when it doesn’t make good business sense (and when said team actually tried to spend money a few years back) is an odd position for an analytics website, and leads to bizarre outcomes like, say, supporting the Lindor contract.
Given what the team is (and has) now, the trade was a good haul for Cincinnati. Would it be controversial just to leave it at that?
That’s why you invest in free agents. To improve your team that already has a solid core.
They gave it no effort, and are looking just to lowball and pocket profit-sharing revenues.
Tampa Bay is consistently contending and have a smaller budget than the Reds. But TB does not trade players for non-prospects (Iglesias, Chapman, Frazier, Bruce, …). This says nothing of giving away their best SP from 2021 (Miley) last winter because they did not want to exercise his $10 million option. Hopefully the two trades the Reds have made thus far are an indication that Bob has decided to let the experts make the trades and stay out of it.
Never let a good opportunity to criticize ownership go to waste.
From a baseball standpoint, this is a heck of a trade and a win-win for both teams.
It’s not “popular around these parts”, it’s knee-jerk. And Szymbo is the Head Knee-Jerk.
They do the analysis, then come Conclusion Time simply channel Karl Marx.
Dan Zsymborski – Fervent Marxist
Eventually if you write enough things someone will accuse you of being a Marxist, even if your politics are very much the opposite. I don’t make the rules I just report them.
I have never been accused of being a Marxist! Wait, I have too. OK, I guess you’re right.
The Adult Analytical Approach to addressing this question would be to compute the going deadline rate for Castillo caliber starters, then compare to what the Mariners gave up. Dan instead just goes “Team spend money! Team GOOD!!!!”
(yes, Tarzan was a Marxist; look how he dressed)
Two clubs, both alike in dignity:
2021 CIN Batting + Pitching WAR: 17.6 + 16.2 = 33.8
2021 SEA Batting + Pitching WAR: 12.1 + 14.3 = 26.4
But one is trying to improve. The other is merely trying to get cheaper.
2022 CIN Batting + Pitching WAR: 5.5 + 4.4 = 9.9
2022 SEA Batting + Pitching WAR: 14.3 + 6.8 = 21.1
It would be one thing if the Reds decided to do a full rebuild, or even a partial rebuild. Not every team can contend every year, and sometimes windows of contention close. That’s not what happened with the Reds.
The Reds just wanted to get cheaper. They shed players and contracts. The Reds had to eventually add payroll because they didn’t want to deal with a union grievance over revenue sharing money. Where did they end up? Just $10 million cheaper in 2022 than 2021 and a lot worse on the field.
So yes. It would be controversial to leave it at that. The Reds deserve our scorn.
@highduffy: Like Szymborski’s “must buy Free Agents” analysis, your argument is dumb. Reds’ success hinged on whether Nick Senzel & Hunter Greene & Lodolo would be perennial All-Stars. Pretty apparent they wouldn’t be in 2019 and Dick Williams spent big money on Castellanos & Moustakas anyway which got him fired. The Mariners produced Kirby, Gilbert, Noelvi Marte, and Julio Rodriguez (!!) (and luckily had FV40 Ty France turn into a top-50 trade value asset) which makes them contenders. Signing Robbie Ray wasn’t the difference.
Cincinnati is a small market, maybe $300M revenue tops which means their payroll maxes out at $150M, maybe up to $180M if they’re willing to take losses. The Cubs and Cardinals routinely run $200+M payrolls and the Cardinals minor league player development is legendary. Thus the Reds need to run a more Rays-like approach and mostly eschew free agency, which on average produces negative results. Paying big money to 30+ yo’s is empirically stupid, unless your market size and revenue base allows a payroll which can tolerate big mistakes (see Nationals’ recent free agent pitching signings for example).
It’s not an argument. It’s what happened.
The Reds payroll in 2019 was $132M.
The Reds payroll in 2020 was $149M.
The Reds payroll in 2021 was $131M.
The Reds payroll in 2022 is $109M.
The Reds simply shed payroll.
Nick Castellanos opted out of his deal. That was $32M off the books over the next two years. That wasn’t enough.Rather than decline Wade Miley’s $10M club option for $1M, they placed him on waivers, after which the Cubs claimed him.
Rather than pay Tucker Barnhart the last $7.5M on his contract, they traded him to Detroit for a Nick Quintana, whose stock is still falling. At least they got someone for Barnhart.
The Reds dumped Sonny Gray’s $24.1M over the next two years in a trade with the Twins.
The Reds dumped Eugenio Suarez’s $33.8M over the next three years and Jesse Winker’s next two arbitration years for a handful of magic beans.
The Reds then traded Amir Garrett for Mike Minor’s $10M plus some cash.
And then the week after that, the Reds realized they’d be in deep shit and subject to a union grievance over revenue sharing money under the new CBA so they signed Colin Moran, Donovan Solano, Hunter Strickland, and Tommy Pham to the tune of $13.3M.
All told, the Reds shed about $98.4M in future liabilities and added $23.3M back and, generously counting, received 6 prospects.
The Reds have no player under a guaranteed contract after 2023, and the only players who are under contract for 2023 are Votto and Moose.
The Reds are neither eschewing free agency, nor are they keeping the good players that they already have by locking them into contracts. They’re not even doing the Rays thing of being cheap but trying to compete. They’re simply being cheap bastards and hoping we won’t notice. They stink.
Ok, first you were arguing that the difference between the Mariners and Reds was their payroll and now — realizing you were wrong — you’re saying the Reds gave their players away. I agree on Miley and maybe they should have traded Castellanos, though they were in distant playoff contention in early September last year. I thought they got too little for Gray and maybe for Winker/Suarez too.
As far as not noticing, the Reds made it clear that they were going to do this when they fired Dick Williams. Fangraphs loved him, but he was terrible and they had to unwind all his moves.
Are you just dense or are you purposefully misreading me?
What I’m saying is that the Reds aren’t even trying to compete. They’re not rebuilding. They’re not trying to get better. They were just trying to get cheaper.
And then, because the of new CBA rules, the Reds realized that they couldn’t get that cheap and had to spend money on free agents. That’s what I’ve been saying all along.
Letting Castellanos go was defensible, because they at least made him a qualifying offer. The reason why they got so little for Winker and Suarez is because they packaged Suarez’s $33.8M remaining with Winker. It was a contract dump.
It’s just a failure to compete by the Reds. They’re like a second Pirates now, taking their revenue sharing money and putting the minimal amount of payroll they have to on the field. They both stink.
I do think that it’s always worth issuing reminders that when an owner previously known for not spending much does something truly uncharacteristic, it is probably not them turning over a new leaf.
Guys like Castellini, Kendrick, Moreno, Dolan, Sternberg, Monfort, and Reinsdorf (if he lives long enough to reverse it) are pretty well set in their ways. If they do something dramatic in one direction, it’s likely they’ll have buyers remorse and do something lousy on the other end.
(Bob Nutting is also set in his ways but he is so set in his ways it’s hard to even imagine him doing something like this before snapping back. And John Fisher’s patterns are likewise bad an predictable. There are a lot of bad owners!)
The central is infinitely more winnable than the AL West.
“The resources of St Louis”
St Louis GDP – $152B
Cincy GDP – $137B
StL metro pop – 2.8M
Cincy metro pop – 2.25M
Stl average metro income – $66k
Cincy average metro income – $56k
Cards owner (Bill Dewitt) net worth – $4B (a large chunk of that is the cards since they’re worth just north of $2B
Reds owner net worth ($400M), Reds valued at a little over a billion.
Reinvest in your team and try to be “good” or at least not embarrassing for 25 years. Thats the difference. The Cardinals don’t have some natural economic advantage here. The reds also don’t have to compete with the Blues (or other hockey team) for dollars during half the season.
They do have The Bengals to compete with, though. Of course, if The Reds were in contention in September, I’m sure there is enough oxygen in Cincinnati to keep them in the spotlight & fans showing up.
That’s more of a point & not an excuse for how they operate.Which I fall more on you/hugh duffy’s side than anyone else.
Sure, but the NFL season is September to January and only one game per week.
NHL is October to June and 3-4 per week.
I guess on the annual you could make that argument. But April to May/June, the Blues are in the playoffs or competing for a spot 3-4 times a week.
Reds have to compete with what? 2 games? 6 if they make the playoffs. Vs like 30 games the Cards have to compete with for sports eyeballs.
Reds also have a MLS team which will draw (as the Royals), but StL will have that soon too.
Thanks Dan, I’m sure Reds fans are feeling similarly today. Noelvi Marte, if things pan out at least ~50th percentile, should be an excellent piece for the next crown jewel teardown trade in July 2029.
This is an enormous haul for the Reds. The Mariners paid the rack rate here for a premium arm. I thought they’d go for Mahle because then they wouldn’t have to give up Marte but they are going all in. Rotation goes from a question mark to a strong one. They can rest up Kirby and Gilbert now. I would imagine this has a very, very positive effect on their playoff odds.
I don’t think Marte is a shortstop. Errors aren’t everything, but they can be a deal breaker, and it’ll take many, many years for him to become even competent at the position if he can even get there. But the power is very real. He reminds me a whole lot of Eugenio Suarez, in multiple ways. I think that’s a positive but realistic outcome. I hope the Reds don’t decide he has to stick at shortstop since they seem to think that guys who should be third basemen can play everywhere, but he’s a great get for any rebuilding team.
I really, really like Arroyo. Maybe he’s a 2nd baseman because of the arm but his actions are much more like an infielder than Marte. He’s been raking. Getting him as the second piece is also very strong.
This is definitely a big deal for both sides.
I thought we’d go for Mahle too. Those ZIPS projections for Marte make me feel a little better… But I don’t like it
Mahle is younger and so he’s a candidate for a team that wants to give out extensions in a way that Castillo isn’t. I guess you could also extend Castillo but he’ll cost more both in terms of prospects and extensions.
Anyway, the deal is a really big deal for the Mariner. Castillo is a solid #2, and probably slots in ahead of Robbie Ray in a playoff rotation, whereas Mahle would probably slot behind. Logan Gilbert is a solid #3 right now, so this bumps guys like Flexen and Kirby out of a lot of work in the playoffs. It’s a real, playoff-ready rotation in a way that it wasn’t before. That’s probably why they did that instead of trading for Mahle.
If the Mariners don’t start limiting Gilbert’s innings, he won’t be a factor in the postseason.
Kirby too
Excellent insight sadtrombone. What do you think of this for 2025:
2B: McLain
SS: De La Cruz
3B: Marte
CF: Barrero
Super Sub: Arroyo
5 of the Reds top 10 prospects are SS and Balcazar (AZL) and Cabrera (DSL) are coming in behind them.
I don’t think Barrero’s going to hit, which is too bad. He’s probably going to bounce around the league as a backup type.
McLain has had a weird year. I don’t know how it turns out for him. Pretty good chance he’s a 2-win player at 2B, but there’s more chance of him busting than I thought.
I am a big believer in Marte’s bat and Arroyo’s overall profile. I think Cam Collier is probably going to race to the big leagues and will stick at 3B.
If I had to guess I’d say Marte is in RF, McLain at 2B, Arroyo at SS, Collier at 3B in 2025.
De La Cruz is virtually impossible to predict. But if you forced me to guess I’d say he’ll have value similar to that of Jonathan Villar, a guy who plays a lot of positions but not well and has one huge standout tool (with Villar it is speed, with De La Cruz it would be power). Some years he’ll play well and in others he’ll get himself DFA’d.
Barrero was promoted way before he was ready, and it has wrecked his development at the plate.
Agreed on Barrero’s development path. Between rushing him, injuries and their Buck Farmer addiction the Reds have done him no favors.
Assume you mean Kyle Farmer *
Trust me, it’s a fool’s errand to start penciling in infields/outfields/rotations with future prospects. I say this as a card carrying member of the Gregory Polanco will be Dave Parker 2.0 club. You’re setting yourself up for heartbreak.
“If you hear any noise, it’s me and the boys (cryin’*).”
*about the Reds
I like the return too. Depends of course a lot on marte. Marte has real power but his contact rates have fluctuated and he probably isn’t a shortstop.
But even if marte is a 25% k guy who has a 310 obp he still could be a 3-4 win guy as a plus defensive third baseman who hits 25-30 bombs.
Of course there is also a worst case scenario were he is like andujar and can’t really play third either and doesn’t have enough hit tool to get to his raw power consistently but that would case, overall there are still some favorable outcomes.
Agreed re Arroyo.
But I’d go even further and say he’s clearly the best piece coming back to Cincy. I have Edwin the #5 overall prospect in the minors right now, behind only Gunnar, Tovar, C. Carroll, and J. Walker. (Marte is around #25 or so.) An 18-year-old shortstop with a .900 OPS in full-season ball is an extremely rare commodity. Add in the steals (21-for-25 so far in 2022) and sweeten with the fact that 12 of Arroyo’s 13 longballs have come on the road, and he’s very likely even better than his impressive slash line appears at a glance.
I too like Arroyo quite a bit and can envision him turning out better than Marte. That said, I need to at least see how he does in high A since a lot of low A pitching is really awful right now.
I like Arroyo a lot but he is a long way from the majors. I think analysts have dramatically underrated his tools (I think the arm plays at shortstop, I think he has more raw power than previously assumed) but he’s in A-ball. If he’s doing this in AA then yeah, he’s easily a Top 5 prospect.
You still have that big a difference between Marte and Arroyo? There is 2 yrs separating them and Arroyo is just 1 level behind Marte. Arroyo is destroying A and is still just 18.
I would think Arroyo is a 45+ now. I’m still not sure if Marte is a 60. He might be more of a 55. But he’s still a very good headliner for a deal like this.
It’s pretty tough to put a 60 on anyone who’s never played above the low minors, IMO.
I generally agree because AA is a crucible.
He and Luciano have a lot of similarities. I like Luciano better but it seems like they should be near each other and near that FV55/FV60 line. Both of them have so much power projection and probably won’t stick at shortstop, with a decent chance they’ll wind up in the corner outfield. I think they go together, wherever they are. Putting them at a 60 is a bet their power can carry them. I’m sort of on board with it because they’re still pretty young but it’s not exactly a low-risk situation.
I would feel a lot better about Arroyo if he were not in the California League. It will be interesting to see what kind of stats he puts up for the Reds the next 6-7 weeks. If he can still produce a .900 OPS in Daytona at age 18 he becomes a 50 in my book. If not I agree with sadtrombone and rate him a 45+.
He’s in the Cal League, yes, but gaining zero advantage from his Modesto home park, which is historically an *extreme* longball suppressor. Specifically, Arroyo is hitting more than 50 points higher on the road, and whaddayaknow, 12 of his 13 homers have come on the road as well.
He’s possibly the most underrated prospect in the minors right now — I have him #5 overall, or about 20 slots better than fellow shortstop Marte (who’s committing errors at twice the rate of Arroyo). Arroyo is the gem of this trade, from the Cincy side of things.
This deal may make it harder for the Nats to get proper value for Soto in the same way that Durant’s price shot up after the Rudy Gobert deal.
Potentially. It also removes the Mariners as a landing spot for Soto. Marte was one of the few premium prospects who wouldn’t contribute to a playoff-worthy team in the near term.
But we keep hearing the Padres and Cardinals are still involved, and as long as they’re still bidding against each other they’ll still get a lot.
I’m at least as curious about what this means for the Frankie Montas trade. Castillo and Montas are comparable in many different ways, and this is about $65M in surplus value right here.
Why? 1.5 years of Jeff Samardzija returned FV60 Addison Russell back in 2014. This is a bit more than that but I think Castillo is a bit more highly regarded than Shark.
But it’s not 2014 anymore. Torres for Chapman wouldn’t happen anymore either. Teams are different (better? Smarter?) now.
That’s the benchmark, sport. That’s what you use rather than surplus value. The Chapman trade was an outlier as you say, rightly. Samardzija was not.
As an Astros fan, I am really content with the Mariners team building. 2023 is a lot more interesting, but after that Seattle has weakened a lot of Julio Rodriguez years. Oakland is down and it looks to be a while. Angels might not trade Ohtani which means they will be all in in 2023. Rangers look to be going hard for 2023 as well.
I thought it was going to be Seattle, but is any team besides the Astros going to try to give themselves a sustainable winning window in the AL West?
Seattle traded two good prospects, not their entire system. You’re making a whole barrel of assumptions on how the future will work out if you see this trade as ruining the future beyond 2023 for the Mariners.
I am assuming the prospects the Mariners gave up will be better than nothing in 2024 and beyond. Likely significantly better. That isn’t a big assumption. Using the Farm Ranking values, the Mariners gave up over a third of the value they had on the farm.
Marte and Arroyo, per Ben Clemens values, are worth more than rest of system combined
Yeah…as an Ms fan I feel the same way.
Our ‘window’ was like cracking open this year, with 2023-26 as a serious peak.
Now…? It feels like our true window is this year and next. They HAVE to both extend Castillo AND sign one of the big SS free agents to play 2B (which won’t happen… They are the Ms) after all.
…so we get a couple exciting 2nd or 3rd place finishes, y’all keep rolling.
…but then again, as an Ms fan, if they make the playoffs just once, maybe it’s worth it?
They’re gonna be fine. Losing Marte and Arroyo hurts but they all of have Ray, Crawford, Ty France, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Julio Rodriguez under team control until at least 2025, and Suarez has a team option for 2025 as well. That’s basically anybody who is anybody.
Arroyo and Marte probably won’t even be ready until 2024 or 2025 anyway, so what this really hurts is in 2025/2026. That’s a long time from now!
Jesse Winker and Luis Castillo are only there for the next year and a half, but aside from that they can keep making runs over and over again.
I dunno. Marte could be up as early as summer next year, almost certainly up to the majors 24. If they “hit” on Marte as a star 3B, the cheap years of Marte & all others position them maybe better than Astros. Maybe. Now… no way. Astros still better setup for this year, for next 5.
Marte is a lot of things but I sincerely doubt he’d be up next year. He’d have to demolish AA to get promoted to AAA early, then demolish AAA enough for the Mariners to promote him to the bigs. I just don’t see it.
Exactly, and you forgot Raleigh, who looks like a real major league player, not to mention the bullpen stuffed with cost controlled arms.
Marte and Arroyo are nice pieces to dream on, but with a rotation of Ray/Castillo/Gilbert/Kirby the Ms can actually hope to compete with the big boys now.
The Mariners being better in 2022 and 2023 (especially if they make the playoffs in one or both of those years) makes it more likely that they are willing to spend again. Having prospect capital is nice, but if they are willing to have a top 10-15 payroll again, that is an extra $40-60M in payroll a year which does a lot for filling in holes.
As much as we love to dream on prospects, the most likely outcome is that Marte and Arroyo aren’t stars and there is a very real chance they never even make the big leagues. For every Bo Bichette, there is a Carter Kieboom.
Excellent analysis, Joe. The Mariners really aren’t that close (to the all important 1st Round bye), and come 2024 they’d really prefer Marte to a Castillo they’ve moved on from or a Castillo they’ve just invested another $125 million+ in.
When folks around here downvote you for pure analysis, you know you’re doing it right!
Dan I love your work and I know you’re not the prospect guy but I think you switched the defensive opinions on Marte and Arroyo. There is a very small chance Marte sticks at SS. He has not been good there and his body has changed a lot in the past year. So much so that many people don’t even feel like he’ll be able to handle 3B but will have to go to LF eventually. Arroyo was drafted as a glove first SS and has backed it up in his pro career. Barring unforeseen injury he’s a SS through and through. He has leapfrogged Marte in some evaluators eyes this year.
I was going to say the same thing. Marte has looked destined to move off SS since his IFA days, with the power and eye profiling well enough to help him retain value even with projections down the defensive spectrum.
Arroyo has always been a promising defender as you note. Barrero is probably the best pure defender of the Reds SS group post trade, but Arroyo’s bat gives him the best chance to win the job in a few years.
As a Mariner fan I believe Arroyo has a much better shot of sticking at short than Marte does. I think there’s a good argument Arroyo is the better prospect honestly, and I love Marte. I was really surprised they dealt them both.
Good move for the M’s but Reds fans should be thrilled with that haul.
I do appreciate Jerry D’s beating Cashman to the Castillo punch by including not one but both coveted SS prospects to get an arm who can help carry them deep into the playoffs. Meanwhile Volpe & Peraza remain “off limits” and thus the Yankees will settle for leftovers on the pitching market. It took fortitude for the M’s to make this move.
You think both of them are off limits? Reading between the lines it sounds like Volpe was off limits but not Peraza.
Curious to see what the return for Montas is now. I imagine many of the same teams will be involved.
Starting pitchers don’t carry teams deep into the playoffs. That’s been so, so disproven.
Disproven where?
I mean, I’m not exactly arguing for one side or the other. But respectfully, I’m curious about the source of your certainty.
Volpe may be off limits, but it hasn’t sounded as if Peraza is…
Reds got a HAUL. I’m okay with Cashman walking away. The Yankees equivalent would be several top prospects with names you recognize.
I think the Angels’ problems all started when Dipoto was forced out by Scioscia. It set them back a few yrs. And just this yr Angel broadcasters were still making snarky remarks about dipoto the M’s turnover and bragging how the Angels keep their players. Like the jilted dumpee.
Erik Bedard and James Shields are concerned about this trade.
I totally agree with your conclusion, I have been a fan for a long time and have lost that loving feeling for the game. It is things like how the Reds gave up, how other teams are stingy, how the game is petty such as with the minor league cut backs.
Well said, thank you, Dan.
I have serious doubts about this trade from the M’s perspective. It’s fine to overpay for a difference-maker in the right situation. Like when you’re in commanding position for a playoff spot and it’s a toss-up if you will get a bye. But the Mariners could easily miss the playoffs this year. And if they do make it they’re facing the longest road. Are they doing this just to end the playoff drought?
From the Reds perspective, this is a huge win.
Yup, dang right. As your reward, I will answer your closing question. Yup, that is exactly why they have made such an egregious overpay
Castillo is just as likely to blow out a shoulder or elbow or whatnot within the next 2 years as Marte is to bust.
The M’s will make the playoffs.
They’ve got a 3-game cushion or so, and I don’t see either of the Soxes making a big move, or the Orioles or Tribe either. That’s the competition.
And with the Wildcard round an actual *series* now, it makes more sense this year to push in a big pile of chips, rather than overpaying just for the one-game do-or-die baloney.
I do agree that the Reds did very, very well for themselves, though. Arroyo is gonna be a 3-5 WAR shortstop for a long time, and Marte will likely hit well enough to be an above average regular somewhere in the field, during his prime 4-6 years.
The Mariners only have $115M committed for next year? Wow. They’re good now and pretty likely to break that postseason absence streak, but they’re REALLY well set up to go chase Trea Turner or maybe Correa in the offseason. Throw a bunch of money at one of them to be the franchise SS, move Crawford to 2B, and that’s a really solid team. There’s also a lot of 1B/DHs available this offseason in a range of qualities, which is the other main hole.
The rotation’s really good and deep, the bullpen is already really good and they keep finding good relievers out of nowhere, and w one of those marquee SS they could put out a lineup of
C Raleigh
1B France
2B Crawford
3B Suarez
SS Turner/Correa
RF Haniger
CF J-Rod
LF Winker
DH FA (Martinez, Abreu, Belt, Blackmon, Soler, Mancini, Bell… etc)
which is really excellent. though I would encourage them to go for the higher end on the DH honestly.
I would guess they’re more likely to extend Castillo and/or Winker than sign Turner or Correa. 2023 will probably be more about depth.
If they’re going all in for a $250M+ deal, they’re going to do it for Ohtani. That 2024 class looks much more like their speed, with Ohtani, Julio Urias, Mahle, Castillo, and Giolito all being slated for free agency. Not all of them will get there but that’s when Winker and Castillo’s deals will be up and where they will have needs.
(Haniger, if he returns, is also more likely to be DHing)
“He [Marte] has a lot of power for a 20-year-old shortstop, and he’s not just a shortstop in a theoretical sense; he’s very likely to stick at the position over the long haul.”
Most reports I’ve read and heard say he’s very UNLIKELY to stick at shortstop over the long haul. Some don’t even see him hitting the big leagues at short.
“The 2021 Reds were a flawed team, but there was a lot of talent there to build on; I’d argue that they actually went into the offseason with a stronger roster for the 2022 season than the Mariners did. But whereas Seattle rose to the challenge to invest in the team and get into serious playoff contention, Cincinnati’s owner instead slammed the contention window shut so quickly that they’re still finding shards of glass on I-71.”
Seems like exactly what the 2018 Mariners did.
Literally my first reaction was the Mariners acquired so much Future in Kelenic (top 5 overall!) and now it’s on the table for something as high risk as not being the champions in the next two years