Mark Appel and a New Kind of Leverage
You’re going to see a lot of college seniors taken in the middle rounds of the draft today, as teams look to save bonus pool money in order to take a shot on an over-slot pick that they either drafted yesterday or might look to take at a certain spot today. College seniors often sign for a relative pittance since they don’t have any real alternatives other than to sign for what they’re offered. While college juniors can always threaten to go back to school, seniors don’t have a stick with which to negotiate, so their price falls accordingly.
That is the kind of leverage — the pressure created by having an alternative option — that most people are familiar with, at least in terms of how things work in MLB. The secondary path forces teams to negotiate a fair price, and players without a valid alternative sign for a deep discount. That theory holds in some cases, but Mark Appel is about to demonstrate that leverage can come in other forms as well.
The Astros used the #1 overall pick yesterday to select Appel, a college senior. He already used his go-back-to-school stick last year, and his college eligibility is now exhausted. However, the Astros did not take Appel because they thought that his lack of alternative options might get them a discount, and because of the new bonus pool rules, Appel’s selection means that no college senior has ever had as much leverage in negotiations as Appel has now.
Here’s why. The signing deadline for drafted players is July 12th at 5 pm eastern, giving teams essentially a month to negotiate with their drafted players. However, that deadline does not apply to college seniors who have no remaining college eligibility. They are excepted from the July 12th deadline, and are still able to negotiate a contract until the night before the 2014 draft. While the Astros will have about 35 days to get the rest of their draft picks signed and in the system, Appel does not need to rush to put his name on a contract if he — or his agent, Scott Boras, who has been known to drag out negotiations — doesn’t want to.
So, now, Appel can basically hold the Astros bonus pool hostage. The bonus recommendation for the #1 pick this year was $7.79 million, which means that Appel’s slot makes up almost exactly 2/3 of Houston’s $11.7 million pool for signing picks. However, the Astros can’t confidently go forward with signing the rest of their selections until they have some idea of how much of that pool it is going to take to get Appel signed.
Say, for instance, that Boras floats a $9 million figure as the target. I just made that number up, so don’t take it as any kind of rumored price tag. Because a team can go up to five percent over their allotted bonus pool without suffering the loss of a draft pick, the Astros could pay Appel up to $8.18 million without having to borrow money from any of their other draft picks. To get to $9 million, they’d have to reallocate $822,000 from their other picks. However, you can’t retroactively reallocate funds, and the picks that the money would have to be borrowed from will have to sign before Appel has to.
Basically, by holding out past the July 12th deadline, Boras and Appel can put the Astros in a bit of a pickle by holding the majority of their draft bonus pool hostage. Signing the rest of their selections without knowing exactly how much it will cost to get him signed is a risk, as it will leave the Astros with no flexibility to negotiate once they’ve already allocated the rest of their pool to picks 2-10. Sure, the caps are theoretically soft, but the Astros are not going to sacrifice their first round pick in 2014 to get Appel signed. As good as he might be, he’s not worth the loss of a pick at the top of the 2014 draft too.
So, $8.18 million is basically the Astros ceiling for Appel unless they free up money for him by getting discounts on later selections. But, if they draft a couple of cheap college seniors today and don’t take any hard-sign guys who fell due to bonus concerns, they’ll also be telegraphing that they’ve earmarked some extra money for Appel, and Boras have no reason to negotiate against the slot recommendation anymore.
The college senior signing deadline exception makes this a pretty fun test of game theory. If the Astros pick an easy sign cheap guy or two, then Boras will just push for the remainder of their bonus pool to end up in Appel’s account. If the Astros don’t pick an easy sign cheap guy, then Boras can simply refuse to seriously negotiate until after July 12th, forcing the Astros to guess how much they’ll need to save on other picks in order to leave enough room to get Appel signed without forfeiting their 2014 first round pick.
Or, they could just play it straight, draft players in line with the bonus recommendations, and spend all of the rest of their bonus pool money before the deadline, leaving themselves with exactly $7.79 million left and telling Appel that’s their best offer. Because, at the end of the day, he is still a college senior, and he doesn’t have the go-back-to-school stick. This is probably the most likely outcome, especially since Boras hasn’t dropped any hints that Appel is looking to break the bank and he’s more likely to want to sign with his hometown Astros than spend a year playing independent ball and hoping to get drafted for a third time next year.
Because of the Houston connection and Appel’s status as a good-not-great 1-1 selection, he’s probably just going to sign for something close to the slot bonus, and this will end up being a non-story. However, whenever Scott Boras is involved, you can’t ignore the possibility of gamesmanship, and Appel’s status as a college senior gives him a new kind of leverage that no draft pick has ever really had before.
While most seniors just have to take whatever is on the table, Appel’s situation gives him the ability to actually negotiate. While the bonus recommendations have generally reduced the bargaining power of agents for drafted players, in this special situation, the rules have probably given Appel more leverage than he would have had under the old system. Ah, the beauty of unintended consequences.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
If he decided to hold out for another year, he would be drafted for a 4th time, actually! Remember he got taken out of high school too.
Couple questions:
1. I understand that Appel can’t go back to school, but isn’t playing in the independent leagues a valid threat still?
2. I don’t understand how the Astros could possibly forfeit their 2014 pick based on Appel?
If a team spends 5% more than they are allowed they lose their first round pick in next year’s draft.
1. The problem with that threat is that Appel can’t get drafted higher. If they offer him slot for 1-1 he’s hoping someone else gets 1-1 next year and is willing to pay overslot, that’s a risky proposition.
2. If they go more than 5% over their allotted pool than they forfeit a pick next year.
Thanks for the 5% answers. I was missing that.
The first question is still valid (although, perhaps not in Appel’s case as he isn’t going higher than #1). If I’m a senior, drafted #15 overall. I can’t go back to school, but I can still go play elsewhere. Reenter the draft, become a free agent, etc. It’s not like he isn’t allowed to play baseball if he doesn’t sign this year with Houston.
Dave addressed this, in the third paragraph from the end.
Plus, he’s getting older and could hit the majors in a year or so. Why push back your career and contracts by a whole year just beacuse you wanted an extra 2 million? If he waits to get drafted next year (or even sign next year) he takes a whole year longer to reach the majors, he basically costs himself millions (assuming he doesn’t suck).
Also, based on the Astros choices last year, I would bet a basic agreement has already been discussed and he will get 7-8 mill! Just guessing, but last year the Stros knew exactly what each guy would cost, why would this year be any different. Going #1 is valuable enough to Appel, he doesn’t need to hold out like an idiot!
The Astros should send an job application for Costco along with their offer.
truly insulting to the millions of people unemployed or underemployed and the thousands of costco workers.
You’re right, that sounds more like a Marlins kind of move.
I was thinking of Matt Harrington, also advised by Scott Boras, who was drafted 5 times, but never got as much money as he wanted and now works at Costco making $11.50 an hour.
After being offered $4 mill by the Rockies, $1.2 mill by the Padres (Boras turned this down), & ~$100K by the DRays.
He fortunately did have an insurance policy w/ Lloyd’s of London & sued his first agent.
wow! harrington turned down $4M when he was first drafted at #7 overall. never sniffed that kind of money again, it seems. cautionary tale.
Mostly correct. But Harrington was represented by Tommy Tanzer the first time, and then Boras; he was only offered big money the first two times, then his skills fell off the charts. Boras was half of the cause of Harrington’s problems, if you like, but Harrington sued Tanzer (and settled), which gives you an idea who he blamed.
Brendan, he was drafted seventh because teams were worried (correctly) about Tanzer’s demands. He would been drafted higher otherwise.
Given a choice between suing Boras and someone else, I’d rationally choose the ‘someone else’ guy. Regardless of which one I blamed more. Heck, why couldn’t I anyways sue both?
Hey Costco employees, THIS IS ME INSULTING YOU. I would laugh if every costco employee was laid off today. Costco used their money to buy an election here in Washington state, which helped their bottom line and hurt our state. I insult costco people at every chance!
You really equate politics of the corporation with the workers??
Yeah! Screw that company that pays its employees a living wage, who has a CEO who works for reasonable pay! And screw them for funding a proposition that makes a product more available for residents. Assholes.
It’s interesting to me how the game theory of this plays out, because I generally think it’s almost never the best decision for the player to sit out a year, but it’s often optimal from Boras’s standpoint for the player to do it, as it makes Boras’s threats more credible. For the player, even if they get more money the next year, they’ve delayed free agency a year and lost access to premium coaching and development. I imagine the mean result of sitting out a year would be lower lifetime earnings.
In this particular situation, Appel won’t get more money next year, full stop. So I imagine he has less leverage than people think. I imagine the Astros are planning around this fact.
Would the Astros get the first overall in 2014 if they failed to sign him? Wouldn’t the Astros essentially be neutral on whether they get Appel or the #1 pick in 2014?
And if they do have the same #1 pick, Appel would have to sign a waiver to allow them to redraft him and do the whole thing over again except a year older off indy ball with no bargaining power or he would fall to #2 where he is sure to make less than the 7.79 slot this year. I will be shocked if he gets a penny over slot.
My understanding is that you get a pick after the previous year’s pick. So in this case, they’d get the 2nd pick. Although they might get the first pick due to their record. So if Appel plays hardball, he might wind up being picked #3 next year. I doubt the Marlins would give him more than he can make this year.
Adding to vivalajeter, This means they would only have to offer him the projected slot recommendation for either the #2 or #3 pick next year, as, arguably the optimal situation for the Astros (given their temporal distance from contending and the benefits of having lots of talent mature at the same time) might be to end up with the first two picks next year, and the monster bonus pool that will come with that. This strategy would be similar to the now extinct strategy of trading for type A or B guys at the trade deadline, only to allow them to leave in free agency, and getting the free draft pick.
With all that is at stake with this pick and Appel’s history I find it hard to believe that Houston would select him without a signing bonus figure already agreed upon.
Exactly, this deal will get done. Possibly for less than slot. Callis estimated $6.5M would do it last week and he has good ties with Boras Inc.
I don’t see why Appel would sign for less than the $7.79M. If he holds out until July 13, there will be at least that much available to pay him without penalty to the team and no one else to spend it on except other unsigned college seniors.
Because the Astros can get next year’s #1 if they don’t sign him and he’d have to go play for the St Paul Saints. In any case it’s not considered good form to agree to something before the draft and then renege.
totally agree. bad article by cameron as always, cant wait for posey to get hurt so we get another cameron special:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/buster-poseys-injury-opens-door-for-colorado/
hilarious. he cannot see all the angles and is always late to the party
I missed your earlier post when you came to the party. Could you provide a link?
Forgetting everything you else, you kind of look really stupid when you link to an article not even written by the person you’re insulting …
Ha!
Nice article – thanks.
If I’m interpreting this correctly, it would not be in Appel’s best interest (nor the Astros’) to hold out or play with this very much.
Delaying the start of his career & development for a few hundred k above doesn’t make much sense, since he’s not going to get significantly more as the Astros are not going to forfeit their 2014 top pick (which looks like another #1 or #2).
Couldn’t the Astros go for some harder signed guys with their later picks, telegraphing to boras that Appel isn’t like a Strasburg? Leaving open the possibility that their is less money than his slot recommendation available if he waits until after July 12th. The path of being like Aaron Crow and going to Indy ball doesn’t seem to be worth the downside of poor performance, injury, etc. without a lot to gain because teams only have so much bonus money allotted. It seems to me the Astros also have a significant amount of leverage, meaning the Nash equilibrium will probably be signing around the slot recommendation.
No – they can’t go significantly overslot on other guys until they know how much Appel is going to cost. If they go overslot and Appel doesn’t sign, then they lose Appel’s slot money, and if they’re now over 5% over their remaining allotment, they lose the pick.
So signing a bunch of other draft picks overslot while waiting for Appel to sign gives Boras more leverage.
****
Unless there is already an agreement in place, I think this plays out for Appel to get slot +5%. If Appel holds out, the Astros simply work the rest of the draft as if Appel doesn’t sign, probably ending up about 5% over on the total sum of their slots other than the number 1. Then when Appel does come in, what is available to him is his slot plus the added 5% that doesn’t trigger loss of pick.
Seems to me that the only way that Boras can get him signed for more than #1 slot+5% is to get him signed early, when the Astros can still steer more money his direction. As other picks sign at slot or above, the money available for Appel goes down.
I think there has to be an agreement, or at least a rough one, in place. Looking at what the Astros did last year, and with the consensus that Appel is not a Strasburg/Harper or even Gerrit Cole type #1, it seems very likely that they only took Appel over Gray and Bryant because they already knew that they could sign him for around $6.5M (the number to which Jim Callis has referred). I’m sure one of the three would agree to that, knowing that #2 slot is $6.7M and #3 is $5.6M.
So while the article is a good one, I think it’s really much more of a thought exercise.
But what’s Appel’s leverage? Sure he could refuse to sign for 10% under slot and go to indie ball but that’s just a pure spit decision that has almost zero chance of benefiting Appel. I’m sure Boras would be fine with that outcome, but I can’t think of a reason why Appel would be.
Yeah this article is just skimming past the fact that if Appel holds out, he needs to have a way to get more money than what the Astros are being offered (I know it is briefly mentioned, but it basically makes the whole leverage concept pretty meaningless).
To really drive a hard bargain, Boras/Appel have to be confident they could be picked in a slot with a high slot value next year (probably 3rd pick at latest) or that a team would be willing to give up their whole draft for him.
The college senior leverage is an interesting footnote, but I don’t think it really comes into play for a number 1 selection. It’s too hard to get the money you would pass on the next year.
Stupid article. The Astros have all the leverage. Offer him 6.75mm and say take it or leave it. He won’t have a choice and he won’t be taken first overall next year and risk injury.
Every day they don’t sign Appel the local media will be screaming bloody murder at the Astros. And that’s a heckuva lotta leverage that no one plays better than Boras.
He signs for somewhere between the $7.79 and $8.18 mill.
Why would the local media do that?
Because they want news, and because they need stuff to write about. Really, the local media always writes of the need to sign your guys to show TWIW and all that traditional media stuff. Didn’t think this was questionable at all.
and the fact that hes a hometown guy doesnt help
Yeah I’m sure Appel is going to screw himself out of a couple million just to spite the Astros.
Sure, but next year they have to sign whoever they take with their comp #2 pick or it’s gone for good.
True, but that didn’t prevent the Dbacks from taking & signing Archie Bradley two years ago (prior to new CBA).
I think this article misses the mark.
1. Appel can’t get drafted higher than 1st overall next year. (equal or less money would be the result)
2. The Astros could pick #1 again, and would then hold #1 & #2 overall if Appel didn’t sign. (again, less money for Appel in this scenario)
3. If Appel sits out the year, he loses one year in the MLB over his career…which could be $10+ mil if he’s a solid-good SP.
4. If the Astros sign all their picks before Appel, they have ALL THE LEVERAGE!! He can sign for what’s left or sit out the year & lose all the above mentioned future money.
I would argue the exact opposite of what this article discusses. I feel the Astros hold a ton of leverage here.
Yeah, I’m confused by this article. I don’t see a world in which Appel has any leverage.
Houston won’t necessarily draft #1 next year. Boras and Appell could wait a year and work out a big money deal with the Marlins…oh, uh…never mind.
All of this, I think, is moot, because I’m sure the Astros have a decent sense of what it will take to sign Appel.
That said, you’re missing an important point. The Astros will likely take a player or two that they want to sign overslot. If they sign that player overslot enough to put them more than 5% over their pool and Appel doesn’t sign, they lose their first round pick next year.
If he left Houston when he was 12, he probably has little if any attachment to it. His friends live wherever he lived in California and the Stanford area.
Even before Dave stated his conclusion, it was obvious to me that, unless Houston thinks they can sign him for less than the $7.79M, both sides might as well just agree to that amount and spare everyone the drama. (Scott Boras has no holdout threat in this case.)
If Boras does hold out, Houston can’t use that $7.79 for anything else. Houston will just sign whomever they sign with the remaining money and tell Boras to take the cap or shove it. They could probably even offer him less as the kid has no place else to go.
If Boras wants him to play independent ball for a year, the kid should tell him to shove it and get another agent.
Boras: Well Mark, I suggest you pass up $7.79M from your home town team and go make a few thousand in an independent league somewhere where nobody is watching, hope you don’t get hurt or that anyone better comes along in next years draft, and then we’ll see what we can get out of the Marlins next year.
Appel: People actually pay you for advice?
Except they probably won’t offer $7.79M. Callis mentioned $6.7M which sounds reasonable. If he doesn’t take it, yes the Astros can’t spend the extra $1.1M on somebody else without a penalty but Appel really screws himself.
You don’t sign with Boras in the first place unless you want every nickle that’s out there to be gotten. Everyone knows that’s what he does. It’s no secret.
You still haven’t explained how not signing with the Astros allows Appel to get anymore nickles.
Sure Appel will get at or about the recommend his recommended bonus, even with less leverage – but was it really worth it?
Houston will do the smart thing and intentionally delay his service time because they’re years away from competing. Pittsburgh was clearly on the upswing when he was drafted last year. He would have been called up to the majors (likely in the bullpen especially with Morton returning) in the 2nd half of 2013. After that he’s up for good, like Matt Moore. Houston won’t call him up until 2014 or 2015. That means he’s a year further from free agency and earning millions in arb deals before that. Oh, and he plays for the Astros!
Yes, because playing for Pittsburgh is some great shakes, right? Geez, PIT has a couple of interesting seasons and people start considering them a desirable location.
Luhnow has Houston in line to be a juggernaut somewhere around 2016. I think Appel has the foresight to look that far into the future. He’s not wanting for cash either, seeing as his family is loaded. It’s got to be a pride thing at this point.
Kev, you must be a huge Astros fan. By the end of the year with the Cards players graduating the Pirates will probably have the #1 farm in baseball. I would challenge you to find any sort of prospect ranking website that has the Astros system ahead of the Pirates.The Astros are AT LEAST 3-4 years away and thats if most of their prospects pan out. The Bucs already have a team capable of .500 or slightly better with 2 top pitching prospects knocking on the door and a lot more Latin American players and potential front-line starters in high-a and low-a. Plus the Astros are in the AL west now. If you think Houston is more desirable than Pittsburgh, it is only if you like hot weather.
I am fully aware that the Pirates have an excellent farm. I’m commenting more on the fact that this particular Pirates fan, after what seems like an eternity of following a losing team, is now getting all puffed up over a couple of near-.500 seasons.
The idea that Appel is doomed because he is now in the Astros system is ridiculous. I’d argue that the NL Central is tougher than the AL West this year, and I don’t see the Cardinals or Reds going away any time soon. The Cubs aren’t far away from contending either.
There isn’t a large gulf between Houston and Pit in terms of minor league quality. Everything you just said about Pit’s farm can be repeated for Houston’s. They’ve got several possible front-line guys and star potential everywhere. Houston should be able to afford a larger payroll too when the time comes to compete, so I imagine that’s a bit of an equalizer.
In any case, this is irrelevant. I’m just saying that this whole “but he has to play in Houston derpderpderp” is tired, banal and moronic.
Yea I agree with that part. The only thing I am wondering is how long they are going to be able to hold him down in the minors. He is close to big league ready and ideally the Astros wouldn’t want to call him up until super 2 cutoff of 2015, being that they wont be competing next year. Appels performance and what seems like a penchant for being sort of a difficult person (maybe thats an unfair judgement, but it does seem that way)may make it difficult for the Astros to NOT call him up by super 2 cutoff of 14 for the next year. Like you said though, the Astros SHOULD be able to support a decent payroll when they are ready to contend, so maybe that extra year of control isn’t important to them. These negotiations will show me a lot about Appel as a person. He really needs to take something at or close to slot, or even slightly below. If he drags this out past the July 12th deadline, people are gonna start to question his character and makeup being with how the situation played out last year.
I agree with some of the above comments, specifically that depending on how the Astros draft the rest of the way, they could easily hold all the leverage. If Houston simply signs the rest of their draftees to deals that don’t cause them to go over their draft pool excluding the #1 pick money, then they get to hold Appel hostage, not the other way around. Since the odds of Appel signing significantly below the slot price for the #1 pick is negligible, it’s not like Houston can really afford to go over slot on other players anyways (at least not without going underslot on other signings as well). The way I look at it is that Appel can threaten to not sign unless he gets more than slot value, and the Astros have until the deadline to decide if they’re interested. If not, they’d have a year to convince Appel to sign at slot value, or get the #2 pick next year, which isn’t an awful position.
I agree with ManBearPuig here.
I would also add that Dave’s argument seems to be based on the different deadline that applies to college seniors. If that is where he sees Appel’s leverage coming from (which I don’t totally agree with), they could mitigate a lot of that leverage by drafting other college seniors whose signings are not subject to the earlier deadline.
If I were the Astros, I’d offer an under slot contract and say take it or leave it. Even for 2 million below slot, I do not think it would make sense for him to risk injury and potentially lose a year of free agency to (hopefully) put himself in the same exact position next year with even less leverage and the Astros likely having two of the top picks.
Psychological/emotional arguments are certainly limited, but it would also be hard for a pitcher to turn down lots of guaranteed cash for a third time.
I wouldn’t change my draft strategy due to Appel, and I wouldn’t offer him over-slot money.
Given his age, and the unlikely scenario of making more money after playing independent league ball, I don’t think he will be a tough sign. Houston drafted him knowing he was willing to sit out last year. Unless they really messed up, they should have a good idea of what it will take to get him signed.
Wouldn’t an easy way around these be taking another college Senior in the first 5 or so rounds with the intention of signing him underslot and then telling him he will be signed only AFTER Appel signs and depending on how much Appel signs for
That leaves the player with a ton of leverage. If he for example decides to go to the independent league and try his chances next year, then the team will lose that slot money, and if they’ve already given it to Appel they will lose the draft pick. If they are going to sign players for less than slot, they need to have that pretty much worked out by the time they are ready to sign Appel.
It seems highly probable Houston knew in advance what he’d sign for before taking him. Boras needs to have credibility, and has historically proven that he values his reputation over the particular outcome for one client. He probably gave Houston clear signals on what number would be able to get the guy signed, or else Houston would have passed on him, as they did last year.
I don’t think Boras has “historically proven” any such thing. Boras may value his reputation, but he knows that every client comes first. He gets client’s money, and players line up to obtain his services.
Appel will be lucky to get the slot money. If I’m the Astros I offer that to him with a hard deadline of two weeks after which I go sign all my other picks and tell Appel its his risk if there isn’t slot money left.
To me it seems like the Astros have the leverage in this situation. If Appel doesn’t take what they give him he is turning down over 6 million dollars a year after turning down almost 4. He is also risking injury and delaying his pro career by another year. I offer him slot of even slightly less. He needs to let them know, if he hasnt already, at least a close estimate of what he wants so that they can sign their other picks accordingly. With the situation last year, if he tries to hold the Astros draft hostage his reputation will take a huge negative hit (although its unclear whether or not he cares about that). He took a risk and won. He can’t go any higher in the draft than 1-1, and like people have pointed out, he doesn’t want to become the next Matt Harrington. He is NOT a Harper or Strasburg like talent, and he should take slot or slightly below and be grateful to the Astros and get his pro career underway.
Are people forgetting that if Appel doesn’t sign they lose the bonus pool money? Like, if they sign a bunch of guys overslot and go to Appel with 6 million he can say “fuck you” and they’ll not only not get him, but I believe it could cause them to go over their 5% allotment and thus lose their first rounder next year, right?
What does that do for Appel?
There’s a lot of Fangraphs commemters who are very sure about the Astros and what they should do with Appel (and Boras). I admit that I have no idea how this shakes out. But I lean towards getting this done, no matter how fans view Boras’s ego and the need for fans to see Boras shot down. The Astros need Appel, and I think, maybe, that will be the key, rather than a hard line that fans like (with of course eventually Appel signing, because we are so sure that the Astros have all the leverage).
Personally, I kinda feel like the shoe is on the other foot here. If Appel goes to the indy leagues, he delays his arbitration clock by a year and takes the chance that he might get hurt. The Astros would get a very god replacement pick next year, which might be a stronger draft pool — considering that this year’s was supposed to be bad. Appel actually has a lot more to lose than the Astros here.
One other thing to consider is that Texas has no state income tax. If he goes back in the draft and somehow ends up on the Mets, Royals or Twins among others, he could pay between 7% and 9% of his bonus in state taxes, not to mention a similar percentage of his salary in the years he remains under that team’s control. Houston should use this issue in negotiations.
Appel wouldn’t been drafted number one if the Astros weren’t sure they could sign him for a number they were happy with. This whole article seemingly is disregarding that fact.
silly writing. No one will draft Appel again if he refused to sign twice after high first round picks. No way Astros suffer as a result. Well I suppose someone would draft Appel next year somewhere in the 20th round….
Astros will pay just under the slot suggestion, and certainly not over, and it will be done early.
The Astros have irritated their fan base with their cheapness. The PR hit of sticking to their guns for less than slot and not signing him is greater than the economic hit. Both sides have issues which drive the conclusion towards slot.
Looking at the economics, however, it would be interesting to see an analysis on the economics of bringing Appel up when he’s ready – say 2014 vs. maintaining an extra year of control. He would definitely put some butts in seats and improve ratings.
Can he threaten to play in Japan? Then he wouldn’t have to be drafted and would just go to the highest bidder correct?
Appel is signing for a below-slot bonus of $6.35 million, leaving Houston with an extra $1.44 million for the other draftees. I hope Dave is going to post something about this. The first article made me very interested in seeing it play out, and I’m a little surprised at the result.
One of Dave’s best theories since he insisted Fredi didn’t overuse the Braves bullpen three seasons ago. Even Frediot admitted he screwed up, but Dave? Not gonna happen.