Matrix Reloaded: January 24, 2025

I began last week’s Matrix Reloaded with a note about the slow pace of the offseason in January, and that was still the case when the column was published at 3:35 p.m. ET. So, of course, less than three hours after that went live, Roki Sasaki announced on Instagram that he’d signed with the Dodgers. His signing kicked the market into gear, making these past seven days far more eventful than what we’d experienced in recent weeks.

For my neurotic Offseason Matrices work, that means a lot fewer blank cells and a lot more maroon cells, indicating a lack of fit due to a positional logjam. The game of musical chairs continues and free agents remain available to sign, but many of the teams that might’ve been interested earlier in the offseason have since filled their openings. That doesn’t necessarily mean that all of these players will sign for less than what they were expected to when the offseason began — though, as Ben Clemens demonstrated earlier this week, many of them will — but it does mean their options are limited. Without further ado, let’s get to the transactions that happened and what we can glean about the ones that may still be to come.

Free Agent Signings

Dodgers Sign Roki Sasaki to Minor League Contract With $6.5 Million Bonus

• Eric Longenhagen’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection

Effect on the Dodgers

Except for eventually bringing back Clayton Kershaw, I don’t anticipate that Los Angeles will add another starting pitcher. I switched the Dodger cells for all remaining starters to maroon, with the exception of Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta. I highly doubt the Dodgers will sign either of them, but if any team understands the need for rotation depth, it’s them. Anybody the Dodgers might add to the rotation would have to be a clear upgrade over, or at least a safer bet than, the likes of Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, and Bobby Miller, which is why I haven’t completely ruled out Flaherty and Pivetta. Still, the Dodgers seem to be set here.

Effect on Other Teams

The starting pitching market should keep stirring now that Sasaki’s off the board, especially for the two other finalists in his sweepstakes: the Padres and the Blue Jays. The Jays have shown interest in Max Scherzer, with Jon Heyman declaring on MLB Network on Wednesday morning that they’re currently the likeliest landing spot for him. Toronto is also interested in Pivetta and Flaherty, as displayed on the Matrix.

San Diego’s position is murkier since its payroll is in dire straits, which is part of why Sasaki — who was limited to a minor league deal plus a signing bonus — was so appealing. Now, the Padres may have to get creative, trading off their roster before adding back to it. Flaherty and Pivetta are likely out of their price range even if they move Dylan Cease or Luis Arraez — also, dealing Cease to make room for Flaherty or Pivetta feels like, at best, a lateral move, and that’s only because Cease is entering is walk year — but after some maneuvering they could perhaps squeeze Scherzer or someone like Kyle Gibson.

Effect on Similar Players

You won’t be able to sign another ace-caliber pitcher for the major league minimum with six years of club control; Sasaki is a one-of-one.

Blue Jays Sign Anthony Santander for Five Years, $92.5 Million

• Dan Szymborski’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Blue Jays

After an often-fruitless chunk of the offseason, marred with constant We Tried reports, the Blue Jays finally got a big bat to join Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the middle of their lineup, and they might not be done yet. Santander’s positional flexibility (both corner outfield spots, first base, DH) gives Toronto options to further buttress its lineup and move Santander around accordingly. The Blue Jays are still in the running for Pete Alonso, for example, though if they sign him, they’ll either have to move Guerrero back to third base or use Alonso mostly at DH.

Effect on Other Teams

The Angels were the other team most strongly tied to Santander. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press described the Halos as co-favorites with the Jays for the switch-hitting slugger. There would’ve been a lot of Angels in that outfield if they’d signed him, causing a roster crunch that — and I’m speculating here — might’ve prompted them to trade either Jo Adell or Taylor Ward. I haven’t seen any reporting that says the Angels are looking to move on from either Adell or Ward, so we shouldn’t expect them to be in the market for another free agent outfielder just because they missed out on Santander. They probably targeted Santander because they felt he would’ve been an upgrade over at least one of those guys. The Tigers also were considered a possible landing spot for Santander, though it seems they viewed him as a fallback option if they couldn’t sign Alex Bregman, who, of course, remains available.

Effect on Similar Players

Alonso stands alone as the one bat-first free agent on Santander’s level, with Bregman, who is still a valuable defender, surely looking to do far better than Santander. It’s worth noting that Santander’s deal is going to come in at closer to $70 million in present value, though. (The linked tweet from Ken Rosenthal provides the union’s calculation, which always comes in lower than the league’s calculation that is used for CBT purposes.) While that doesn’t mean Alonso won’t be able to beat an AAV of $14 million, he may have to take a significantly shorter deal to do so. Something around the three-year, $68-$70 million deal he rejected from the Mets — an offer that contained opt-outs — might be the best that he could expect.

Dodgers Sign Tanner Scott for Four Years, $72 Million

• Ben Clemens’ Write-Up of the Deals
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Dodgers

The Dodgers’ bullpen is now pretty full, especially because if they go with a six-man rotation to start the season, before Shohei Ohtani is ready to return to the mound, they would be limited to only seven relievers. (Because Ohtani is a two-way player, once he is healthy enough to pitch, the Dodgers would then be allowed carry eight relievers while deploying a six-man rotation.) Scott, Blake Treinen, Evan Phillips, Ryan Brasier, and the out-of-options Anthony Banda take five spots right now, and while Alex Vesia can be optioned, it’s hard to see that happening after the year he just had. Michael Kopech should take the seventh spot; a report that he may miss the start of the season with forearm inflammation was shot down by GM Brandon Gomes.

It’s no surprise, then, that the Dodgers are gauging trade interest in Brasier, perhaps to make room for another elite reliever in Kirby Yates. Swapping out Brasier for Yates would leave Vesia as the only optionable arm in the pen, so maybe there would be another move coming to create additional flexibility.

Effect on Other Teams

Seeing one — and maybe two! — of the best relievers on the market go to the best team in baseball couldn’t have been enjoyable for the other 29 teams, but there are still other solid relievers available. I’ll get more into the lower-tier options in the José Leclerc section, but the pitcher for whom Scott’s deal matters most is Carlos Estévez. Teams looking to sign a surefire closer (insofar as a closer can be surefire) to a multi-year deal have Estévez as their only option; all the other high-leverage relievers on the market may have to settle for one-year deals.

Effect on Similar Players

Estévez is the same age as Jeff Hoffman, who despite failing two physicals still earned three years and $33 million from the Blue Jays. If Estévez is healthy, he should be looking at what Hoffman got as a minimum target, with Scott’s contract serving as a theoretical maximum, though he probably won’t get that much.

Braves Sign Jurickson Profar for Three Years, $42 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Braves

The most glaring hole in Atlanta’s roster was in the corner outfield. Ronald Acuña Jr. will start the year on the IL, and Jarred Kelenic was mired in prolonged slumps for much of 2024. Kelenic and Bryan De La Cruz may platoon in right field to open the season until Acuña returns, but as soon as he does, the Braves will feature a Profar-Harris-Acuña outfield. Man, that’s rock solid. The starting nine once Acuña’s knee is healed is locked in, with shortstop Orlando Arcia representing the only starter who could be displaced if Atlanta were to sign one of the remaining free agents.

Effect on Other Teams

Profar’s departure is another tough blow for the Padres, who always held out hope that they’d be able to iron out their payroll issues while he was still available. Left field isn’t the only position the Padres have left to fill; they also need a DH and another catcher. The clearance sale in February or even March could have some interesting names — remember, Profar signed for just $1 million last offseason! — and they might have to wait until then to squeeze multiple players into the budget.

Effect on Similar Players

None of the remaining free agent bats are expected to be in Profar’s salary range, so there are no conclusions to draw from this signing. That said, there’s one fewer team that could use Alex Verdugo, the best corner outfielder still on the market.

Athletics Sign José Leclerc for One Year, $10 Million; Guardians Sign Paul Sewald for One Year, $7 Million

• Michael Rosen’s Write-Up of the Leclerc Deal
• Updated Athletics Roster Projection
• Updated Athletics Payroll Projection
• Updated Guardians Roster Projection
• Updated Guardians Payroll Projection

Effect on the Signing Teams

If last year’s rookies can carry over their 2024 performances, it looks like the A’s are going to have a nice group of options to bridge the gap to flamethrowing closer Mason Miller. Leclerc and T.J. McFarland are the veterans of the group, aided by Tyler Ferguson (who’s actually a little older than Leclerc), Michel Otañez, and Grant Holman. If the bullpen is missing anything, it’s a second lefty to use in higher-leverage spots, along with grounder specialist McFarland; Hogan Harris is currently the top internal choice to fill that role.

As for the Guardians, Sewald is a shrewd addition to further bolster their bullpen, which was already the strength of this roster. That said, for as amazing as Cleveland’s relievers were last year, they collectively ran out of gas by the time the playoffs rolled around; Sewald should help protect them from having that happen again. He also gives the bullpen a different look, with lower velocity and a funkier arm angle, similar to former Guardians middle relievers Scott Barlow and Nick Sandlin.

Effect on Other Teams

With Scott, Sewald, and Leclerc — and maybe sooner than later Yates — off the board, the back-end reliever crop is starting to thin out a bit, though there are still some solid arms available. Estévez is the top remaining option, as I mentioned in the Scott section, but he is a better comp for Scott (and Yates) than he is for Sewald and Leclerc. David Robertson, who was ahead of Leclerc in the Rangers bullpen pecking order last year, is probably a better short-term option, though his age — he turns 40 in April — could make some teams pause. Kenley Jansen had a tough end to his year, when he left the clubhouse before the end of the season due to a shoulder injury, but he pitched well overall. There’s also rebound possibilities like Craig Kimbrel and Kyle Finnegan, both of whom spent significant time last year finishing games.

Effect on Similar Players

That $10 million is a pretty penny for Leclerc, even if the A’s perhaps had to pay a premium to get him to pitch in a minor league park. It also helps the A’s avoid a grievance. Now that their projected luxury tax payroll is above the $105 million mark — or 1.5 times what they’ll receive from revenue sharing — the burden of proof if a grievance is filed would shift from the MLBAPA to the team. (RosterResource currently projects the A’s to have a $106 million luxury tax payroll.) Regardless of what’s driving that $10 million, it’s still a great development for Estévez, Robertson, and Jansen especially. They should all be able to sign for higher AAVs, even if Estévez gets a two- or three-year deal. Sewald’s contract, on the other hand, is right in line with his median prediction (on the Total Spending Projection page), so it doesn’t really tell us anything new about the market.

Cubs Sign Jon Berti for One Year, $2 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Cubs

The signing of Berti isn’t going to generate much buzz in and around Chicago, but he’ll provide important insurance in case Nico Hoerner has to miss the start of the season because of his offseason flexor tendon surgery. Berti will also push top prospect Matt Shaw for the third base job.

Effect on Other Teams

Other clubs aren’t going to overreact to this news and immediately jump for somebody else, though it’s important to note that Berti’s infield and outfield versatility was in short supply in the free agent pool. Garrett Hampson, Adam Frazier, Enrique Hernández, and Whit Merrifield are still available.

Effect on Similar Players

The four players I just mentioned should’ve been glad to see Berti get guaranteed money coming off a non-tender. Hernández was the only of them who had a clearly better year than Berti, though, meaning that at least one of the others may still have to settle for a minor league deal.

Nationals Sign Shinnosuke Ogasawara to Two-Year Contract ($TBA)

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Nationals

Ogasawara is no Roki Sasaki: our Eric Longenhagen dropped a 35+ FV on him as his prospect grade, and his fastball tops out at a cool 92 mph. Then again, the Nationals don’t care how hard you throw ball four, and Ogasawara walked only 3.7% of batters faced in Japan last year. MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Trevor Williams, and Michael Soroka will take four spots in the rotation, leaving just one (maybe two) for Ogasawara, DJ Herz, Mitchell Parker, Cade Cavalli, and Jackson Rutledge.

Effect on Other Teams

The Pacific Rim scouting departments are close to closing up shop for the winter, at least as far as looking into players who could help major league clubs in 2025. Ogasawara, Sasaki, and Tomoyuki Sugano have signed out of NPB, and Hyeseong Kim is over from the KBO. The only unsettled player left is Kyle Hart, who got blitzed in his first major league action with the Red Sox back in 2020 but was fabulous in South Korea last year.

Effect on Similar Players

Hart was better in South Korea than Ogasawara was in Japan in 2024, and while that doesn’t inherently mean he should earn more — they’re different leagues and Hart is five years older — but it’s about the closest Hart will get to a proxy on what he should be looking for as he lingers on the market. Logenhagen has Hart graded as a 45 and Ben Clemens was bullish with a contract prediction for him (three years, $24 million), so Hart has Ogasawara beat both qualitatively and quantitatively.

Rumors of the Week

• Pete Alonso might be close to signing with the Blue Jays… unless, of course, he isn’t. In the Santander section, I already ran down the defensive shuffling that signing Alonso would require, so I instead want to use this section to elucidate how I personally read these types of rumors and how that applies to the Matrix.

In a nutshell, the Matrix is only as good as the news and rumors that are reported, but of course not all the player-team links are out there, and it’s always possible for publicly reported interest to be overstated or understated for any number of reasons. For example, the Diamondbacks were never mentioned to be a serious suitor for Corbin Burnes until that deal was done. Ditto for the A’s and Luis Severino, the Orioles and Tyler O’Neill, the Braves and Profar, and many others. Conflicting reports are more difficult to decipher than none at all, of course, so with Alonso I’ve got green cells (denoting a strong likelihood) for both the Blue Jays and Mets, reflecting Jon Heyman’s reporting that they’re the two likeliest teams to sign him.

• Alex Bregman is the other big fish available, and we got some fascinating news on that front Thursday: The Astros reportedly are still trying to bring him back, after all. As inelegant as a Blue Jays defensive realignment with Alonso may be, that’s nothing compared to what the Astros are considering. According to Bob Nightengale, they would make room for a possible Bregman return by sliding third baseman Isaac Paredes, whom they acquired in the Kyle Tucker trade, over to second and… moving Jose Altuve to left field. It’s true that Altuve has never played the outfield as a professional, but this is not the first time Houston has considered moving him from the dirt to the grass. As Stephanie Apstein reported in a March 2021 Sports Illustrated feature about Altuve’s case of the yips, the Astros had discussions about moving him to center field as early as his MVP-winning 2017 season. Still, this isn’t as clean a fit as it would be if Bregman signed with, say, the Tigers, but Altuve appears to be game for a position change if needed. According to The Athletic’s Chandler Rome, Altuve is exerting his influence to try to get owner Jim Crane to bring back Bregman.

• In order to re-sign Bregman, though, the Astros might have to move setup man Ryan Pressly and at least part of his $14 million salary to clear payroll. Thus far, Pressly is entirely disinclined to waive his no-trade clause (he has 10-5 rights) to go to a team in the east or west, but he may ultimately approve a deal to the Cubs.

According to Rome, the Astros are “unwilling” to pay the luxury tax this year. They’re currently about $3 million over the tax line, and as such trading Pressly wouldn’t be the only move Houston would have to make to cut costs in order to re-sign Bregman. The Astros could attach prospects to get a team to bite on Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier, or Rafael Montero, but they’d have to sweeten the pot considerably for any of them. McCullers and Javier are injured, and Montero was DFA’d and his contract is completely underwater.