Matt Moore Without Matt Moore’s Fastball

On Aug. 22, Tampa Bay left-hander Matt Moore reminded everyone of how excellent he can be. Once a consensus top-three prospect (alongside Bryce Harper and Mike Trout), Moore was dominant. In six innings, he recorded 16 strikeouts — 13 of which came in a stretch of just 15 batters. He allowed a single run. But there’s one problem: Moore was pitching for the Durham Bulls, in a game against the Columbus Clippers.

Sad puppies.

At a point earlier in his career, Matt Moore had been an All Star; now he was in Triple-A. Why? Well, since returning from a Tommy John procedure that limited him to just two appearances in 2014, he had been, to put it not nicely but succinctly, putrid. Moore made his season debut in Tampa on July 2. Since (and including) that time, he’d made six major league starts, giving up 26 runs (all earned) in 26.2 innings. Lest you think this was a function merely of batted ball luck, consider: over those 26.2 innings, Moore had struck out 17, walked 13, and gave up four homers as well. The Rays sent him to Durham.

Moore had been an ace starter before having the surgery two starts into the 2014 season, but six starts into his return he hardly looked the part (and two starts following his return from the majors haven’t offered any counterarguments to that point). I’m not sure what Tampa’s expectations were for him, but the often less-grounded expectations of fans and media were that he’d step back into his previous role in front of the Tampa rotation, thereby forming an unbeatable duo of awesomeness (potentially with capes!) with Chris Archer. But so far it hasn’t happened. Can Matt Moore be an ace again? Was Matt Moore ever an ace? Do capes help you pitch? Why questions? How about answers!

There seems an obvious and easy answer to his struggles: he’s missed a year’s time after Tommy John Surgery. Pitchers returning from that procedure often experience diminished command and control. Moore has a 5.70 ERA and is allowing almost two HR/9 (home runs per nine innings) and exactly two HRTDO/9 (that’s Home Runs to David Ortiz) so control could certainly be his problem. We could chalk it up and move on, but then what would be the point of this article don’t answer that question keep reading please and click on all the ads and buy wonderful things hooray America thank you.

To answer what is wrong with Matt Moore now, we need something to compare him to, and that thing is pre-surgery Matt Moore. Pre-surgery Matt Moore came up in late 2011. He threw just nine innings and then 10 more in the postseason. He was fantastic, but 19 innings isn’t much of a sample. He did throw substantial innings next season (2012) and the following season (2013), recording 177.1 and 150.1 innings, respectively. They say “show don’t tell’”and this is FanGraphs so here is a table (we’ll have a graph later, I promise!) comparing Moore’s strikeout and walk rates to that of the league average starter.

First, for 2012:

And then, for 2013:

We can see that before the surgery Moore was well above average in both strikeouts and walks. He could get away with the walks because of the strikeouts. He wasn’t a ground ball guy, posting rates eight and six percentage points below league average during 2012 and 2013, respectively. Given the number of grounders he was getting and the walks he allowed, you might think home runs would have been a bigger problem for him, but they weren’t. I suspect at least partially for this reason FIP wasn’t as big a believer in Moore as the rest of us. Moore’s FIPs in his two big innings seasons were 3.93 and 3.95 (his xFIPs were 4.35 and 4.32), both right in the vicinity of league average (and the xFIPs were well above league average).

At this point it looks like Moore was a guy who had the (very valuable) ability to strike hitters out, but wasn’t exceptionally good at any other part of pitching. The best pitchers limit walks and home runs in addition to striking batters out. The overall package was still a valuable one, but Moore looked like a guy with a killer fastball who could play off it with his secondary pitches, a curve and change. Moore was a guy who needed his mid-90s velocity.

That’s what has happened to Moore’s fastball velocity. It should be pointed out that Moore threw nine innings in 2011 and 10 in 2014, but even if you ignore those seasons due to sample size concerns, there’s a clear trajectory there. There is a bit of procedural/bad news here as well. Brooks Baseball, from where this and the below charts were taken (thanks!), calculates fastball velocity a bit differently from how we do here at FanGraphs. The result is that Moore’s velocity is higher via Brooks than it is via us. If you look at Moore’s page here on the site we have his fastball velocity at 91.5 mph this season. That, again, according to us, is below the league average for starters of 91.9 mph.

But whether Moore’s fastball averages 92.something or 91.something is immaterial to the fact that hitters have swung and missed less and less at it over time.

I went through Moore’s splits thinking maybe his problem is inconsistency. Maybe he’s having problems getting through the order a second time, or facing right-handed hitters, or something of that nature. As it turns out, he is having problems facing right-handed hitters, but he’s also having problems facing left-handed hitters. He’s been bad in the first inning, the second, the third, and so on. Then I came across this stat: this season, after 0-2, hitters are hitting .273/.333/.515 against Moore. That is astounding. Here is the link because I almost don’t believe it myself.

The danger for Moore is that his velocity won’t return and other stats like his strand rate and HR/FB will normalize. That would be a real problem. It’s possible Moore’s velocity will ramp up. He’s not far after the surgery and maybe after a regular off-season to get fully back in game shape, things will look better for Moore. But right now, his walk rate is right around career average. His ground ball rate is right around career average. But without his velocity, the Rays might be looking at a future without a pitcher whose career looked so promising just a few seasons ago.