Max Scherzer and Jon Lester Have Been Free-Agent Bargains

Two years ago, Max Scherzer and Jon Lester signed deals worth a total of $365 million between them, agreements which would keep both players employed into their age-36 seasons. The accepted wisdom, dating back at least as far as Mike Hampton and Barry Zito, is that signing free-agent starting pitchers to massive contracts into their 30s is a poor idea. If early returns are any indication, last season’s deal for Zack Greinke is unlikely to serve as evidence to the contrary. David Price’s injury scare, meanwhile, provides another reminder of the risks inherent to long-term agreements with pitchers.

Not all such commitments are doomed, however. We’re just entering the third year of the contracts signed by Scherzer and Lester, for example, and so far those deals look quite good.

Two offseasons ago, Lester and Scherzer represented the only two players to receive a contract of $100 million or more. Eight other players signed for at least $50 million, though. All 10 such contracts are listed below. For each player, I’ve also provided an estimate of the value he would have been expected to provide starting with the time he signed. To calculate this estimated value, I began with each player’s WAR forecast from the 2015 FanGraphs Depth chart projections, started with $7.5 million per win, added 5% inflation per year, and applied a standard aging curve. The rightmost column indicates whether the player in question was expected to outperform or underperform the cost of his contract.

The surplus and deficit figures for individual players vary by quite a bit. Overall, however, the actual contract and value numbers are within 1% of each other.

It might be hard to believe that, at the time, projection systems were calling for Chase Headley to record $100 million in value. Remember, though, that he had averaged more than five wins over the three previous seasons and had just completed a four-WAR year. From this point, it looked like Scherzer, Lester, and Hanley Ramirez signed contracts pretty close to their expected value. The number for Scherzer is probably even closer than what we see above after accounting for his deferrals, as he makes just $15 million per season over the playing life of the contract.

In addition to Headley, Pablo Sandoval, entering his age-28 season, looked to be a decent bet, as did Russell Martin. James Shields hasn’t done much lately, but in 2015, he was coming off his fourth straight 225-inning season and the 3.2 WAR he’d just recorded for the Royals (en route to the World Series) represented one of the lowest totals of his career.

On the other side of the ledger, aging sluggers Nelson Cruz and Victor Martinez didn’t look like they would age well. In three of the previous four years, Cruz had been worth roughly one win. As for Martinez, he was 36 years old. Despite having just recorded a 168 wRC+, age-related decline was imminent. Ervin Santana had decent seasons with the Royals in 2013 and the Braves in 2014, but in 2012 he put up a 5.16 ERA and a 5.63 FIP (142 FIP-) and was well below replacement level.

Here’s how those players performed during the two seasons following their deals, 2015-16. Red Sox fans might want to look away.

In just two years, Scherzer’s performance has been nearly equivalent to $100 million worth of production on the free-agent market. Nelson Cruz has vastly outplayed his projections over the last couple seasons, too, making his contract with the Mariners a very good one thus far. Nor are the Chicago Cubs likely complaining about the performance they’ve received from Jon Lester, who has also added 49.2 postseason innings, during which he’s produced a 3.48 FIP and 2.72 ERA in seven starts and one very important relief appearance. Russell Martin’s contract is slightly backloaded, but he’s been a good deal thus far, while Santana and Headley have played to expectations. The other four players have actually combined for a -2.3 WAR over the last two seasons when you include Shields’ time with the the White Sox.

The Padres probably actually did well to get rid of Shields when they did, but in addition to paying most of his 2016 salary, they’re paying another $22 million over the next two years, as well. Victor Martinez had a disastrous 2015, hitting like Jason Heyward did last season while providing no defensive value. He rebounded some last year with a 120 wRC+, but terrible baserunning and no defense limited his contribution to about a win. The Red Sox opted to spread $183 million between Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval while letting Jon Lester go. The result was four wins below replacement level in 2015 followed a replacement-level season from Sandoval in 2016 and a decent 2.6 WAR season from Ramirez.

Going forward, the projected value looks a lot like the value thus far.

Max Scherzer’s 6-WAR projection heading into the 2017 season is larger than the one he received before making his first pitch with Washington two years ago. The defending Cy Young Award winner has already given the Nationals good value, and he might be just a couple seasons away from providing the full value of his contract despite the five years he’s got remaining on it. Lester isn’t sitting quite as well, and there are some concerns about his spring velocity, per Jeff Zimmerman, but to expect a 33-year old, in the third year of a six-year deal, to record 4.5 WAR is a big victory for the Cubs.

At the other end, we have some players who were already negatives from year one of their contract — when teams generally get the best performance — and things don’t look much better going forward. When we combine the present surplus/deficit with future surplus/deficit, we can see how the value of the contracts changed over time.

Overall, the values have remained unchanged, but great performances from the big-name pitchers have upped their value, as have Nelson Cruz and Ervin Santana, who have put together some surprisingly solid performances. Headley’s value has dropped, but only to what the Yankees are actually paying him. Poor play by Ramirez, Martinez, and Shields has hurt them while Sandoval has been a huge waste thus far. Performance and injuries could still change things over time, but right now it would appear the Nationals and Cubs have gotten very good deals despite going against conventional wisdom.