Maybe Travis Shaw Is Just Better Than Pablo Sandoval

Perhaps you already thought it inevitable, but now it’s official: Out of the gate, Travis Shaw will be starting for the Red Sox at third base, over Pablo Sandoval. Through the end of his contract, Sandoval is owed more than seventy-five million dollars. Shaw, meanwhile, is owed an amount of money you could actually imagine in your own bank account. This is surprising, because of the commitment the Red Sox made to Sandoval the previous offseason. But this is not surprising, because Sandoval was a disaster. Hanley Ramirez might’ve been a more conspicuous disaster, but Sandoval managed to beat him, ever so slightly, in negative WAR.

There are just a few things that have to be said in response to the news. The first, which is critical, is this is non-binding. I mean, Shaw will start on opening day, but beyond that, no one’s really said anything. It stands to reason Sandoval is going to play; he’s not going to be a full-year pinch-hitter. It is legitimately unusual for a team to rule against its own financial commitments, at least this soon. And then — well, this decision was probably easy. This is the right time to give Shaw his chance. He might just be a better baseball player than Sandoval is, and after back-to-back seasons of misery, the Red Sox are in the business of maximizing wins.

One of the things that makes this situation unusual is that career courses like Sandoval’s are unusual. Sandoval was a good enough player almost every season through 27. That’s what you want to see in a free agent, but of course, it all came crashing down at 28. Sandoval’s drop-off was historically significant, and there just aren’t that many comparisons. Sandoval’s in line to lose playing time after Year 1 with his new team. Melvin Upton came apart at 28, but then he was again allowed to play regularly. Chone Figgins lasted a year and a half in Seattle before he started to lose time. He was older than Sandoval. The Angels dumped Josh Hamilton after two of five years, and he, too, was older than Sandoval. Hamilton is an interesting case, not because he was ever as bad as Sandoval on the field, but because of how much money the Angels ate. There’s a small but real history of teams just cutting bait. Teams don’t always side with the money — you can also look at Aaron Hill, or you could look at the same Red Sox, with Rusney Castillo.

No team wants to be let down by the players getting paid the most money. That’s tough on owners, and it does introduce a variable, where teams will be more likely to try to squeeze what they can out of the big-money contracts. If you look at the Red Sox’s situation, though, there’s of course already been a front-office change, where the current man in charge isn’t responsible for Sandoval being on the books. So he doesn’t have any of his own loyalty there, and ownership is willing to give Dave Dombrowski the benefit of the doubt for the time being. More than anything, they want to win. Their situation sucks when the team sucks, and there’s no better time than now to give Shaw an opportunity.

Shaw was never a big prospect. He actually hit fairly poorly just last season in Triple-A, as notable players go. As for Sandoval, he achieved some measure of international celebrity, and it wasn’t that far back a few organizations thought him worth roughly nine figures. At first it doesn’t make great sense that Shaw might be the better baseball player, but is it strange, really? After what we all just saw, would it really be so insane to suggest that Shaw improves the odds of making the playoffs?

You don’t need to understand regression to the mean to understand that Sandoval is unlikely to be 2015-level bad again. He was arguably the worst regular player in baseball. He’s not going to be worth -2 WAR, but then, consider, over the past three years combined, he’s been worth +3.1 WAR. He comes out just a hair above 1 WAR per 600 plate appearances. Obviously that’s sunk by the season that was, but think about Sandoval’s skillset. He’s an excellent contact hitter, for sure. Yet he doesn’t have speed to beat out grounders. He doesn’t hit for all that much power. He’s a clear negative on the basepaths. And he’s been a below-average defender. Last year, he was an awful defender, and though he should be better than that, I don’t know anyone who’d think of him as a positive. He’s been hit-or-miss in spring. Sandoval just doesn’t have much working in his favor.

Shaw? Well, Shaw has mostly been a first baseman, but he’s not unfamiliar with being a third baseman, and the Red Sox specifically cited his defense as a major reason why this decision has been made. I don’t think we can assume Shaw is better than average, but he should be playable. On the bases, Shaw moves like a guy who’s mostly been a first baseman, but it’s unlikely he’s bad on Sandoval’s level. Which leaves us with the offense. What’s odd about Shaw is that, in the majors, he out-hit himself in Triple-A. But that’s what just happened, and Shaw’s also been productive enough in spring.

He’s not without his peers. Carlos Correa out-hit himself in Triple-A. So did Corey Seager. So did Mikie Mahtook and Adonis Garcia and Trayce Thompson. So did Francisco Lindor! What you should always care about most is major-league performance, and in the majors, Shaw showed power, and he showed roughly average contact skills. Over about 250 chances, Shaw ran a 117 wRC+. It’s not about believing whether that’s real. It’s about giving that a chance. Most recently, Shaw was good, and Sandoval was bad. If the Red Sox weren’t going to give Shaw a chance now, when would they? What would it take, and what message would this send? Shaw earned this. He mostly earned it last summer, but he’s only helped his case in March.

He’s not a lock, and the team knows that. Sandoval’s not pleased on the inside, and the team knows that. A helpful side effect could be that Sandoval will feel more motivated by this. He will have to perform in his more limited opportunities, and perhaps he responds well to that. But this is what circumstances called for. There’s a decent chance Shaw will just be another Will Middlebrooks. If he gets himself exploited in regular duty, then, the door’s open again. Then Sandoval could step forward. Yet if Shaw doesn’t struggle, I don’t think there’s anything to feel bad about. You can’t say Sandoval didn’t have his turn. He’ll get another turn if Shaw is exposed, and then no matter what Sandoval would do, at least people would know the backup isn’t the superior option.

I’ve never had to make any decisions involving tens of millions of dollars. I can’t imagine the Red Sox are thrilled, but, money is the only thing pulling in that direction. You keep Sandoval as the starter if you’re trying to get the most out of Pablo Sandoval. You give Shaw an opportunity if you’re trying to get the most out of the Red Sox. Seems like it should actually be a pretty easy call.