Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 2/4/2020

Meg Rowley: Hi everyone, and welcome to the chat.

Meg Rowley: Any news that’s of interest?

Meg Rowley: Let’s get a couple of Kiley-related questions out of the way.

BJ: Meg, thanks for taking the time to chat. Will Kiley’s departure affect Prospect Week and the release of the rest of the team prospect lists?

Meg Rowley: Prospects Week will kick off as planned on February 10 – it’ll feature Eric’s Top 100 among other things, and we’re really excited for it.

Meg Rowley: Obviously the prospect team going from two people to one person will have some effect on the lists, but we’re working on a good pace (Orioles will drop tomorrow) and have been planning for Kiley’s potential and eminent departure for a little while now.

Meg Rowley: So while this is the first you are hearing about it, it isn’t new news to us. And Eric is still alive, and well, and committed to producing freakishly deep prospect coverage.

Meg Rowley: As for potential additions to the staff to backfill Kiley’s position, that’ll be sorted out in good time. And don’t fret – if/when we have news on that score, we won’t be shy about sharing it.

Meg Rowley: So while we hate to see Kiley go, we’re continue to be really proud of and confident in our prospect coverage. I think the breadth and quality of Eric’s analysis, coupled with what The Board does now (and some new features that are coming soon) make our coverage pretty special, even if after today, it is less concerned with kitchen remodels than it has been lately.

JSDee: Biggest surprise free agency deal of the off season?

Meg Rowley: Remain surprised by the length of Mike Moustakas and Drew
Drew Pomeranz’s deals.

Nick: Do you have a favorite entry in the SABR writing awards?

Meg Rowley: This is like asking me to pick a favorite child, especially since Jay and Rachael are nominated in the same category. I think that the variety of pieces and authors is really cool, and they are all worthy of consideration.

Meg Rowley: (sorry, as you might imagine, the number of notifications that I am receiving on a day like today is non-trivial)

jamesdakrn: With the astros scandal, Cole and Rendon saga and now the impending Mookie trade, MLB F5 season this year is muuuch better than last year

Meg Rowley: I would argue that one of those things is not like the other ones, because free agent signings are fun, and scandals and trades of franchise players are kind of a bummer.

HS sports editor: Whats the worst thing about editing (mine is not getting to write as much)

Meg Rowley: That ranks highly on my list. I think generally, and this very rarely happens with our staff but, not knowing how to fix a piece that needs fixing is a bummer, because I feel like I’ve let the writer down.

Bobby: When will fangraphs post its projected standings for 2020?

Meg Rowley: Mid part of this month – gotta fold ZiPS into the Depth Chart projections (which are powered entirely by Steamer right now) and then we’re off to the races.

mike: which is worse? hall of fame voting or iowa caucus?

Meg Rowley: Iowa. Baseball matters a lot to all of us, but matters objectively less than a reliable and accessible democratic process of voting.

Logan: What are your favorite and least favorite uniforms among all MLB teams?

Meg Rowley: I never thought I would say this but, I am genuinely offended by the swoosh on the Yankees unis. Just truly wounded by them.

Meg Rowley: The Padres’ brown unis are great, and I love every. single. version of the D-backs unis.

Meg Rowley: You’re thinking to yourself, “Even the ugly ones, Meg?” and to that I say, those most especially.

Dog mutton: Happy for Marco, But would you not agree thats a pretty team friendly extension?  With better defense, a slightly less rabbity ball, and slightly more 4-seamer usage, this could wind up being good value for Seattle.  Thoughts?

Meg Rowley: It is but one that isn’t particularly surprising given his age and injury history. Which isn’t to say that some yucky leverage doesn’t exist here, but that it is of a slightly different favor.

Sorry, asking for my fantasyteam: sorry if this is already posted somewhere or if it’s misdirected, but do you know when full pre-seasons ZiPS will be posted? Or thebat? Seems like Dan’s pacing for the end of next week

Meg Rowley: Mid-Feb as well.

Meg Rowley: Dan’s almost done as you noted.

mt: Will we hear from Sheryl Ring this season? I really enjoyed her law-focused articles.

Meg Rowley: Sheryl took her talents to Beyond the Box Score last June, and has been doing good work over there.

Marc: I don’t understand one thing, about the Red Sox’s reported offer including Price- presumably they’re going to at least TRY to contend for a wild card this year, right? Their rotation would be Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Perez, and ?? Johnson? They’re all injury risks too

Meg Rowley: Would imagine there might be some major league pitching going the other way, too.

bartosz: Where does Puig end up?

Meg Rowley: Give. Me. Puig. In. Pittsburgh.

Meg Rowley: Honestly there are and Cleveland feel like the best fits.

Meg Rowley: Very excited to spend another season being told that actually, that Cleveland outfield is good.

onomatopoeia: Where do you come down on the Seattle NHL team name debate?

Meg Rowley: As long as we avoid appropriating Indigenous names and iconography, I’m good. Kraken is a good name. That’s fine. Go Krakens. Woot, the Krakens.

Buff: I’m wondering if there is any way to calculate wins above replacement for the playoffs or the World Series. Assuming the Dodgers are going to win their division, what would the value of a Mookie Betts be toward a World Series championship? Can we quantify it?

Meg Rowley: Championship Win Probability added likely your best bet here.

Greene: If you want a democratic process for voting, then something that breaks the caucus system is probably a good thing, given how undemocratic that system is.

Meg Rowley: Doesn’t mean that integrity of this election is unimportant

Elliott: Is there a graceful way for the Red Sox to not trade Betts at this point?  Talks about the trade have been so public and have advanced so far that it seems like it would be difficult for Betts to feel like he’s actually wanted in the organization.  That could set up an awkward season for him and the team both if he does remain in Boston.

Meg Rowley: Not trading him is infinitely easier to explain than trading him in my opinion.

Meg Rowley: You know us, the team with one of the best players in baseball? Yeah, we decided to keep him. He’s very good.

Meg Rowley: So easy!

Nick: Your love for the DBacks’ uniforms confirms there is no accounting for taste.  Thankfully, the DBacks themselves are coming to their senses.  Per a recent USA Today article:  “The club next season no longer will wear dark gray jerseys on the road, and all of their uniforms – home and road – will no longer feature the gradient pattern on the shoulders or down the sides.”

Meg Rowley: I know, and I am devastated by their cowardice.

Sirras: Which teams have had the least comprehensible offseasons as far as you are concerned? CHC/BOS with the lack of spending? COL doing COL things? NYM going with small changes rather than big ones?

Meg Rowley: Cubs by a mile. The lack of signings, the Bryant grumbling, the grousing about payroll. Colorado and Boston deciding to behave this way toward franchise players was similarly wild.

cWPA: Barry Bonds has the 11th highest cWPA ever but he never won a ring.

Meg Rowley: Sure, but we have a pretty good idea of how much he helped?

cWPA: (I wasn’t complaining, I just thought it was pretty wild!)

Meg Rowley: Oh yes, very much wild.

Olerud’s hat: Do you think that a deal for Betts would benefit from a 3rd team that could absorb payroll in exchange for a prospect?  Seems a very Dipoto moment.

Meg Rowley: My sense is that there is sufficient salary relief on the table, it’s just a matter of Boston deciding what they want.

Viking: A little late, but better chance for Bonds/Clemens to get in the HOF – BBWAA (larger, but hardened opinions) or some iteration of a committee (smaller, but maybe less sympathetic if Joe Morgan has any sway)?

Meg Rowley: BBWAA I would think – the committees are smaller, and I’d imagine the PED attitudes more ingrained.

John Mc: Will Fan Graphs be posting the 2 and 3 year Zips projections?

Meg Rowley: Yup, but later.

Art: Does Kiley’s departure mean the lifestyle podcast is officially dead?

Meg Rowley: Alive forever in our hearts and the shocking number of texts I have received about that damn kitchen.

Sam Delaplane’s Fantasy Island: Megstrodamus, what would you say are the three storylines that will shape baseball in 2020?

Meg Rowley: Seems likely that we’ll be on the look for more cheating and very attentive to the ball, but if some of the clubs that made strong offseason additions have their way, we most also get a lot of talk about a new wave of contending teams, and wouldn’t that be fun?

Meg Rowley: Let’s root for that.

The Ghose of Wade Boggs: Would it be possible to add height and weight as parameters to the sort-able leaderboards? I was hoping to do a study on the correlation between size and infielder defense and that would be a huge help if at all possible.

Meg Rowley: Can ask, but not on the top of the dev priority list. I’d also be careful about relying too much on listed weights, which are often approximate and are not updated all that regularly, and heights, which are sometimes generous.

JSDee: Looking at the Dodgers rotation in 2020, seems like the team might be more vulnerable than discussed. Are you surprised that a team that close to the WS the last few years has been this quiet?

Meg Rowley: good opportunity to check out Jay’s piece! https://blogs.fangraphs.com/david-price-would-offer-dodgers-more-name-…

Jolly Roger: If Puig was on your fantasy team would you be worried that he’ll be playing in Japan, or will he eventually take a 1 year deal on a bad team and move forward and get 500+AB’s?

Meg Rowley: I expect he will play in the States and see significant playing time.

Meg Rowley: Finally, a fantasy question I can answer.

Ben: If the Angels give up the DH on some days when Ohtani is pitching, would he get the pitcher bonus or the DH penalty for those plate appearances when his WAR is computed?

Meg Rowley: My understanding (and this makes sense) is that if he’s the pitcher, the pitcher stuff

Trent: Barry Bonds is actually 165th all-time in cWPA:  https://www.thebaseballgauge.com/post.php?tab=players_at&play_type=All…

Meg Rowley: ah well

Olsen: Re: New Wave of Contending Teams:  Would you take the White Sox, Blue Jays, or Rangers as the most likely to make the playoffs in 2020?  How about 2021?

Meg Rowley: The Reds, and then Reds and White Sox in 2021. Think the Rangers and the Blue Jays are still a ways off

John Cardinal: Why do you repeatedly claim to be so worried about certain players on the Astros being hit by pitches? It comes off as painfully sanctimonious, especially after they’ve shown zero accountability or remorse for their actions.

Meg Rowley: Because I can wish that their apologies were more satisfying without hoping they get beaned by a baseball. I’m really something.

Guest: Most Home/Road Trips are either 9 or 6 games long. Why doesnt MLB make it a rule that 15 of the first 21 games of the season are always played in Domes and warm weather Cities to calm down on rain outs?

Meg Rowley: Because those teams want July home games just like everyone else does.

Meg Rowley: There is always going to be very limited interest in a schedule rule that means some teams play more of their home games when kids are still in school.

Fellow West Seattleite: Pouring one out for Kiley and his awesome contributions to Fangraphs. And counting on Eric to continue all the great work with The Board!

Meg Rowley: Yeah, we’ll definitely miss Kiley, but uhhh Eric is very good at this, and it won’t be his first time guiding the ship. ‘Tis the nature of the business – we know how to bob and weave at this point.

Fangraphs Audio: New FA episode?

Meg Rowley: Today! It’s wrapped and mostly edited, and will go live shortly after I’m done here.

Guest: You’re equating the bummer of the Red Sox trading Mookie Betts to one of the biggest sports scandals of the past 20 years???

Meg Rowley: They can both be bummers and be different degrees of bummers.

Superb Owl: What was your favorite Super Bowl commercial?

Meg Rowley: They were all bad. Brady’s ghostly profile being a Hulu ad was pretty damn funny though.

Matt Klentak: The scandals are only “bummers” because how MLB/MANFRED handled the situation in the past & present. MLB KNEW in 2017 this was happening & only decided to do something about it because a player went public 2 years later. The actual reporting & investigating was awesome, cant miss stuff. Baseball hasnt been that talked about on twitter ever & I cant wait for more stuff to come out.

Meg Rowley: I was as delighted as anyone by “banging scheme,” and Ken and Evan’s reporting, and the subsequent analysis by others was really sharp and interesting, but it’s never good when the validity of two World Series is in question.

Meg Rowley: Your millage may vary, but that’s where I’m at.

Smucky the Cat: How far in advance are the EW season previews recorded? For example if you recorded the Cubs one today and tomorrow they traded Bryant (or Red Sox and Betts, Rockies and Arenado) I imagine a lot of the preview might not be relevant

Meg Rowley: The turn around is pretty tight, and based on our schedule (which I will not share exactly to allow us the all important wiggle room) we should be ok when it comes to Boston for sure, but will obviously keep those potential trades in mind when we prep for them.

TomBruno23: Trivia Time: Can you name the only Hall of Famer to throw a pitch for Tampa Bay?

Meg Rowley: Wade Boggs, right?

Meg Rowley: Weirdly Wade Boggs?

Matt Festa at a bus stop: Do most teams stack a roster with utilitymen like the Mariners?  Dylan Moore, Nola, Shed Dee, Sam Haggerty, Tim Lopes.  I know Shed’s going to start at 2B, but that’s a lot of pocketknives.

Meg Rowley: I think it is safe to say they are officially in “see what we have” mode – the flexibility is nice and also, they don’t really care if they win so.

TomBruno23: Yes Weirdly Wade Boggs (WWB) it is, nice work

Meg Rowley: Have to give credit to Sam Miller for alerting me to that fun fact.

Christian: My favorite entry on the wCPA chart linked earlier:  Will McEnaney, who is thirtieth all time in wCPA, despite having a career WAR of -1.1.

Meg Rowley: such delightful goofiness

Meg Rowley: Alright pals, sorry for cutting this one short, but I gotta get rolling. Thanks for all the questions and sorry for what I didn’t get to.

Meg Rowley: Tomorrow? The Orioles list and absolutely no staff departures at all.

Meg Rowley: Have a great week!