Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 3/17/2020

Meg Rowley: Hi everyone – going to give the queue a bit more time to fill up. Will get started in a few minutes!

JR: Given the Marlins much improved farm system, how many seasons (assuming this one happens) do you think before Miami is a viable postseason contender? Or at least playing meaningful games after June?

Meg Rowley: Heck, they might be playing meaningful games this June (please let’s be playing baseball in June!) – a shortened season can make things pretttty weird. But realistically, I’d say two more. And a lot depends on them being willing to spend money, which…

Josh: I know there are more important issues than baseball, but how do you think shortened seasons will look similar to the strike-shortened seasons of the past?

Meg Rowley: I think we might end up with some real funky playoff teams if things keep dwindling, though that likely manifests more as surprising Wild Card teams, or a few of the more coin flippy divisions going to the opposite side of the coin than we expected.

Meg Rowley: The Yankees are still good. The Brave are still good. And the longer they’re on break, the more dudes they get back.

Ryan Coleman: So if a pitcher sets a single-season ERA record in the (assuming) shortened year, does it stand?

Meg Rowley: I think it would always be described in terms of the shortened season. We are nothing if not avid asterisksers.

Nuke LaLoosh: How should I pass the time without any sports? Any tv or book recommendations?

Meg Rowley: If you like true crime, I might recommend Rachel Monroe’s Savage Appetites. It is about the societal preoccupation with true crime stories, but also grapples with how forensics and police work have advanced, and who has benefited (and suffered) from that: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Savage-Appetites/Rachel-Monroe/…

Meg Rowley: I find that keeping attention on a novel is tricky in times like this when your phone is always buzzing, so essays strike a nice balance.

Meg Rowley: This might also strike you as odd (so many of us are about to do a lot of nothing) but this is next in my queue: https://www.amazon.com/How-Do-Nothing-Resisting-Attention/dp/161219749…

Dave: A professional cricket player in England went on Twitter this week and volunteered to do grocery shopping for anybody in his area who can’t go themselves. What ballplayer do you feel would be best at stepping in to do your grocery shopping?

Meg Rowley: hmmmm that’s tricky – I imagine a lot of major leaguers haven’t done their own shopping in quite a while, and they might be used to a budget that doesn’t quite match mine.

Meg Rowley: (sorry if answers are a bit slow, my internet is being testy)

Sammi from a Brooklyn park bench: Can’t we just run the players out there in hazmat suits and play ball?  I mean, you could write their names on their backs in Sharpe so we know who they are….thoughts?

Meg Rowley: If baseball were different, how different would it be…

Meg Rowley: Gosh, we’d really just see no baserunning at all, would we? And imagine trying to field with imperfect peripheral vision. And jeez, hiding the ball if you’re pitcher seems like it would be a lot easier.

Rob K: Hi Meg! How are you doing? I hope you are doing OK. Do you have healthy any coping strategies for dealing with uncertainty?

Meg Rowley: I think to the best you’re able, set boundaries with yourself and with others. Have a time when you’re not looking at your phone. Politely ask your friends/partners/pets to talk about something else. Yesterday, a buddy asked me a series of completely reasonable questions about when I thought the season would get going again, and how the site was doing, etc. I had thought and talked about those things all day, and needed a break. So I told him so.

Meg Rowley: There is a lot of information that is important to know to keep yourself and your loved ones and your neighbors safe, but part of taking care of yourself is allowing your shoulders to drop every now and again.

Space Jam: If you had the chance to go back in time to witness any moment in baseball (or any sport) history, what would your top three be?

Meg Rowley: I’d like to see Merkle’s boner live because that moment is so meaningful in hindsight, so obviously impactful, but I want to know how the crowd felt in the instant it occurred.

Meg Rowley: We’re sometimes bad at recognizing meaningful shifts in our reality in real time.

Willy the Groundskeeper: Happy Saint Patricks day!!

Meg Rowley: Please stay home.

Craig G.: I don’t get the big deal about this penguins in the aquarium thing. They didn’t even seem THAT interested in the other fish. I’m all for penguins waddling around but let’s all calm down about this one, huh? Do you have a preferred genre of viral animal videos, to take the edge off?

Meg Rowley: I like the ones where an animal famous for doing one thing (flying!) does another thing (running!) – I watched the video of an owl running approximately 1 billion times.

Trinian: What is the biggest tactical change managers will make in a short season?  Pull Starters earlier?

Meg Rowley: Starter usage is going to be so fascinating. On the one hand: so many fewer innings on their arms! On the other hand: such a funky-ass preseason! Do guys get stretched longer? Fewer days of rest? CATS AND DOGS LIVING TOGETHER?

Jasper: Just want to say thanks for being here. I’m getting so much more done WFH, but I’m also already getting in the habit of pressing the pedal to the metal for eight hours, so diversions are most welcome.

Meg Rowley: We hope we can provide some levity and a diversion when one is needed. We also get that there is a lot going on right now.

Meg Rowley: And for folks who are newly adjusting to working from home: be generous with yourself. Getting used to that routine can take a lot of time, and some amount of trial and error.

Lunar verLander: Are you wearing green, knowing full well that there’s a high likelihood that you won’t get pinched for not wearing green?

Meg Rowley: No, and friends, don’t pinch people. Pinching sucks. What a mean, spiteful little gesture.

Charles P.: So much of baseball is dwelling in the spaces between the actual baseball. Games happen every day but they’re cushioned by the sprawl of the season during sleepy summers. What do you think happens to that sense of things (if you even agree it’s the case) with a condensed season and people so attuned to the remaining schedule?

Meg Rowley: I think that once the season gets going, assuming it does, it will feel very normal for long stretches, before being punctuated by moments when it feels super freaking weird. Like, when is the trade deadline?

Derek: Everything is weird!

Meg Rowley: So goddamn weird.

Howard D.: Is there anyone you think benefits particularly from a shortened season? Obviously fewer games is better for variation but any team/player/profilespecifically that might be good for?

Meg Rowley: Getting dudes back from injury is likely a help (Yankees, Braves, etc) but also, the long layoff might be bad for some (obviously all of this is very, very bad, but). It’s just so weird!

Chris: Why is it so hard to convince old people to shelter in place?

Meg Rowley: I have been struck by how many of my fellow 30-somethings have struggled to convince their parents to take this seriously. I think that has shifted meaningfully in the last few days, but there was a while when it was pretty grim.

Meg Rowley: Now, if you look at the pics of folks lined up for bars last Saturday, a lot of them were young! There isn’t an age floor or ceiling on foolish behavior.

Rays fan in OH: If a team wins the WS of a significantly shortened season, do you think that cheapens the win and is it fair to the team if so?

Meg Rowley: I don’t think so. I think every dumb game is going to feel like a miracle this year.

Meg Rowley: We’re going to be so amped to watch the Tigers play the Mariners.

Brian: The lads of Baseball Scotland are going ahead with opening day. As far as I can tell, all other baseball on earth is cancelled.

Meg Rowley: This is just hilariously irresponsible. I know this isn’t a big gathering, but folks, if you are able to, stay home.

Chris: Is the draft even going to happen? Outside of the first few picks it seems like it’d be totally random

Meg Rowley: You’re underestimating how much of the scouting has already been done. But it does mean that this year’s version of Keoni Cavaco might go a lot later than he otherwise might.

Bill Mrray: Do you see this shortened season positively or negatively affecting the free agent market next offseason?

Meg Rowley: I guess it in part depends on how much teams actually end up having to pay guys this year, but I’d also imagine that the lack of revenue will be pointed to as a reason for austerity. But it is really, really hard to say.

Jason: This sucks

No games today: This is taking #cantpredictball to a really unhealthy level

Meg Rowley: This super sucks. It isn’t the most important part of the way this sucks, but man, this super sucks.

Stuck in Snohomish: On a small positive note, searching for “banging scheme” on Wikipedia automatically redirects to the article “Houston Astros sign stealing scandal”.

Meg Rowley: We are sometimes very moderately blessed

Matt: Sorry if you’ve answered this any number of times but what does FanGraphs (and maybe sports writing in general) look like during an extended absence of baseball/sports?

Meg Rowley: Some things are easy to tell you for sure – we’ll keep writing and thinking and podcasting about baseball, we’ll keep trying to give you something to take your mind off things, we’ll continue to appreciate you reading the site.

Meg Rowley: Others are trickier – we’re going to have to flexible on the timing of positional power rankings, for instance.

Meg Rowley: It’s going to be tricky – the offseason winding down is always welcome because it is just a lot easier to write about baseball when there is baseball!

Meg Rowley: If you think of things you want to see on the site, though, we’re all ears.

Jinder: If MLB allowed one fan per stadium as a social distancing measure and you had the chance to be that one fan for a Mariners game, would you attend?

Meg Rowley: if I could do it without compromising the safety of ballpark staff, 10000000%

Meg Rowley: just 1000000000000000%

Stefan: Firstly, I hope you are safe and healthy. I know Washington is particularly suffering right now. Hope you are well! I digress, How are teams going to handle contracts and free agents? Will Mookie ever play for the dodgers? What is your take? Did the Dodgies give up Downs and #Verdugs for nothing?

Meg Rowley: It is just a very weird possibility! But maybe?

Guest: When was the last time you were outside?

Meg Rowley: Yesterday! I made sure I wasn’t close to anyone else, but went for a long walk. The CDC’s guidance isn’t that you never leave your house at all – it’s that you practice social distancing.

Mason N: You can bring back one uniform component from any time in baseball history for today’s game, what are they wearing out there?

Meg Rowley: Gimme them White Sox shorts and lapels, oh baby

Meg Rowley: you think the best weird thing about it is the shorts, but it’s actually the lapels

Guest: I’ve seen lots of people here and in yesterdays’ chats say that when they WFH they forget to take breaks from their work.  But I usually forget to stop my breaks and get back to work.  What does that say about me?

Meg Rowley: That working from home manifests differently for everyone and that there isn’t a single approach to doing it well.

Innocent Team Owner: Saw on Deadspin that the NFL is actually cycling through players more than ever. How quickly can this happen with the MLB as the NCAA pipeline gets reinforced? Between capped spending and unlivable MiL wages, surely we are primed to have our own more powerful head on the NCAA hydra

Meg Rowley: I’m not reading the new Deadspin

Jessie: Hi Meg! Thanks for being awesome. I managed to pick up both Cactus League and The Resisters from my local branch of the Seattle Public Library before they closed. Should I save the episode where you discuss these for later when I’ve read them, or would that episode be just as fun for someone who’s about half done with Cactus League and soon to pick up The Resisters? Again, thanks for being here! I mean, not literally here, duh, social distancing is great.

Meg Rowley: I would wait until you’ve read them

Meg Rowley: they aren’t super full of spoilers, but I think the conversation is more interesting having had the context of the book

Meg Rowley: books, rather

Guest: Did you see the fangraphs projections of shortened seasons this morning? It didnt seems to change outcomes drastically

Meg Rowley: (who do you think edited those pieces?)

Meg Rowley: as the season gets shorter, more and more changes

Meg Rowley: It isn’t always super dramatic but it can be meaningful

Nate: So…I know you watch football. Are my Texans basically the Dave Stewart era D-Backs right now? *Insert sad, depressed I need a stiff drink face here*

Meg Rowley: I think any time that the coach is the GM, we learn interesting stuff about how they prioritize perceived coachability, but also man, that’s a bad trade.

Rick: Are you on board for baseball during December? What would that look like? All games played in domes? where would the Twins play? Where would Atlanta play?

Meg Rowley: You’d have to play inside in all likelihood. Even if you’re not getting rained or snowed on, it’s going to be cold… also, we don’t have a flu shot-like vaccine for COVID-19. Are we really keen to get a bunch of people in a crowded space as we go back into what might come to be understood as cold, flu, and COVID-19 season?

GoBraves: How will shortened NCAA baseball season affect this year’s draft?

Meg Rowley: You’re getting fewer looks at guys, though as I mentioned, it isn’t as if teams are just now assembling their boards.

Derek: Do you listen to music while you work? If so, what kind of music?

Meg Rowley: Really depends on what I’m doing, and what my attention is like that day. Instrumental stuff is generally very safe – sometimes music with lyrics are too distracting.

Meg Rowley: This is a very specific recommendation, but I’ve found the Stranger Things score very nice to work to.

Guest: Thoughts on a snappier name than “Covid-19”?  The Covvie?  The Cove?

Meg Rowley: people seem to be trying to make ‘rona happen, though I’m not sure how well that is going, or whether I want them to succeed

Bart: Has the possibility of a baseball strike next year increased or deceased now that we have shortened season?

Meg Rowley: good god

Meg Rowley: Well the current CBA expires at the conclusion of next season, so I’d expect if there is a stoppage, it’ll be in 2022.

Meg Rowley: I don’t say this to downplay the serious issues that face labor but I’d imagine next year, people just want to play ball

Meg Rowley: and get paid to play ball

Rob: Starting to think there might not be any baseball at all. What player will you regret not having a season the most?

Meg Rowley: Not seeing the minor leaguers is just really very rough. All of it is bad, but there are guys who being a year older is going to shape our opinion of.

Derek: Has MLB mentioned any metrics or benchmarks they’ll be looking for regarding when it’s safe to restart the season? Is it just going to be when the CDC gives the ok? Seems like an extremely tricky calculus (and not just for baseball, obviously…).

Meg Rowley: I imagine they’ve discussed that internally but my sense is that CDC guidance is really driving a lot of this, along with the reality on the ground in places like Seattle, New York, San Francisco, etc.

Meg Rowley: Ok pals, I need to get rolling. Again, we really appreciate you sticking with us through this. We’ll do our very best to give you a port in the storm.

Meg Rowley: In the meantime, please make smart choices, not only for yourself but for others. Donate to food banks if you can. Practice patience and compassion as best you’re able – stress (and sadly, possibly grief) does a number on folks. We’re all going to have moments of being wigged out, or snappish with loved ones. We’ll all just do the best we can to help each other through.

Meg Rowley: Try to have the best week you can. Until next week!