Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 4/17/18

Meg Rowley: Hello, and welcome to the chat!

Well-Beered Englishman: Would you rather cheer for a team that loses 100 games in the season, or a team that reaches the World Series but loses every WS game 25-0?

Meg Rowley: Well having been a fan of the 2008 and 2010 Mariners, a team that reaches the World Series and loses horribly. Mostly because my mom taught me I should try new things.

Albie Lopez: Are you worried about the early numbers from Chris Archer? Strikeouts are there and velocity seems within reasonable error bars. Think he rebounds and has a normal season?

Meg Rowley: I’m a little concerned. The walks aren’t great. He’s had a hard time locating in some of these starts. That the velocity hasn’t dipped dramatically and that he is still generating swings and misses is why I’m not a lot concerned. It’ll maybe probably straighten out to something more effective than this, but it would be great to see that happen soonish.

resumeman: Will you be updating the ATC projections for the Rest of Year projections, or will that just be the ZIPS/Steamer ones?

Meg Rowley: I have asked the boss and he says just Steamer, ZiPS and THE BAT

PTBNL: Price v Ohtani is must-see TV tonight even though the game starts at 10:05 ET

Meg Rowley: One thing you could consider doing is upending your whole life and leaving everyone and everything you hold dear and moving to the west coast, where I will be comfortably watching the game at 7:05.

Meg Rowley: But barring that, yes, I expect it will give you a good reason to be tired at work tomorrow.

Bubba: More Carson chats!

Meg Rowley: I am in favor, and you are in favor, but I suspect that they cause Carson literal physical pain, and that is probably an unreasonable thing for us to ask of him merely for our entertainment.

Meg Rowley: Also, Carson is a very busy guy who keeps all this splendor running.

Cronsky: What is the best case you can make for stats like wOBA and SIERA? My dad and grandf

Meg Rowley: I think when you’re talking to folks who have relied on traditional stats and are suspicious of sabermetrics, it often helps to leave the math aside and talk about the concepts, at least in the beginning.

Meg Rowley: Maybe they find the formula intimidating. Maybe they have a hard time making that translate into what they are watching. But they are smart guys and they probably intuitively understand the idea behind wOBA that not all hits are created equal.

v2micca: Seriously, how strong do you have to be to snap off the bat at the handle, and still get enough on the pitch to send it into the bleachers?

Meg Rowley: So, so, so, so strong.

Meg Rowley: So strong.

Meg Rowley: The most strong.

Meg Rowley: I’m not sure we’re talking enough about how good Harper’s start has been, I guess because the Nats have sort of stumbled, but he’s just been phenomenal and so, so, so strong.

PTBNL: Before opening day the Red Sox had a 40% chance to win the AL East – now they have a 61% chance. Are we comfortable saying their chances have increased that much based on a 13-2 start and a slow start for NYY?

Meg Rowley: I think so. We maybe undersold how tight that race was going to be. There’s obviously still time for things to swing back New York’s way, but banked wins are banked wins and the Red Sox pitching is appreciably better, especially with the Yankees bullpen having a rough go.

Meg Rowley: Still think it stays tightish (NYY’s expected wins haven’t really moved) but Boston has moved things for now.

Rougned Odorizzi: Man, Aaron Judge is for real, isn’t he?

Meg Rowley: Both literally and figurative Quite Real

Pimp my Rhys: Do you think players who wear the C-flap get less respect among other players?

Meg Rowley: I don’t think so.

Meg Rowley: A fastball to the face screws you up pretttty badly.

Meg Rowley: Maybe there are some self-proclaimed tough guys who think it’s silly, but we shouldn’t listen to them.

Not the Maddog: In 72 career games, Albies is hitting .296/.353/.514 good for a 129 wRC+. He’s the youngest player in baseball and is listed at 5’9″, 160lbs. Just wanted to say that he is amazing.

Meg Rowley: He is! He also has one of the biggest gaps between his wOBA and his xwOBA so he probably isn’t quite this amazing, but he is amazing.

ummm..: Meg, life is weird, if I was a bowl of coleslaw and you a blanket we couldn’t have a conversation

Meg Rowley: I’d be warmer, though. So pros and cons.

Webster: Will Jose Altuve hit a home run this season?

Meg Rowley: Hot Take Incoming: More than one!

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Meg, you are the expert on baseball players getting angry. You might have seen Marisnick get pretty steamed after he got bodied by the ump on strike 2 in extras. How will this change once we get robot umps?

Meg Rowley: You still need a guy back there to announce the count and monitor plays at the plate, so not very much.

Meg Rowley: When I was at BP, I wrote about this. It isn’t a reason not to do it (there are other real reasons not to do it) but one of the reasons I don’t like the idea of going to an autozone is that you strip the home plate ump of the power to make decisions, but guys are still going to yell at him.

Meg Rowley: We yell at umps after replay decisions change, and they aren’t the ones making the call. We are often monsters.

Jon: I too enjoy your rapport with Carson. Two odd souls bonding over weirdness (I mean this in the best way)

Meg Rowley: Carson is a delight. I am consistently grateful that I get to work with a bunch of smart, kind, weird baseball folks. It is low key the best part of this job.

Rock Kickass: Where would Meg Rowley hit in the FG Beer League Softball batting order?

Meg Rowley: I am a diligent scorekeeper.

Meg Rowley: 9th.

Rob: Are you concerned about Stanton’s performance this year?

Meg Rowley: Nope.

Meg Rowley: The line is weird right now, certainly.

Meg Rowley: But quietly, he is at the moment a slightly above average hitter. Power makes up for so much.

Meg Rowley: I do feel for him, though. Even with the spike in strike outs, the way he’s not being great is the way I think fans hate the most, even if the overall picture tells something different.

John S: do you think it gets lonely being the Mariners? wouldn’t it feel better for all in a revamped national league west?

Meg Rowley: What benefit do you get swapping Oakland for San Francisco?

Carlos Slamtana: Will I be ok?

Meg Rowley: You are hitting the ball so hard right now! And have so little to show for it! I think you will be just fine. But you must be so annoyed.

Duffy: In a 5 x 5 roto league would you trade Nelson Cruz for Bundy, Castellanos, and Andrew Miller?

Meg Rowley: I beg of you, only because I am sure you are a nice person who deserves good advice, to ask the fantasy guys.

54: Do you ever get the urge to just stomp around and declare in your best cro-magnon voice “ME GROWLEY” before your first coffee of the day?

Meg Rowley: How do you think I wake up?

Justin: Didi Gregorious, good hitter now?

Meg Rowley: Maybe not this good, but the plate discipline improvements are encouraging and very soon, should they stick, we might even call them real!

Sean: Did Stanton bite off more than he could chew? New league, no permanent position, warm weather to “cold weather” city, no fans to crazy fanbase…that’s a lot change to digest.

Meg Rowley: He really will be fine, so no.

Meg Rowley: The warm weather to cold weather city thing is such a funny perceived change to me. Sure, NY right now is colder, but the Bronx in August isn’t an ice box and it isn’t as if the Marlins only play in Miami.

pH: Is Ben Gamel the starting LF for the Mariners by this weekend?  Why are they waiting to call him up?

Meg Rowley: They’ve said it is because of the match ups and also because, well, they signed this Ichiro guy, and now they’re in a roster pickle

Meg Rowley: From Servais:

Largest Adult Son: How does one go about submitting an article for THT?

Meg Rowley: My contact info can be found here: https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/who-we-are/about/

Meg Rowley: And I would suggest submitting a pitch for an article first.

Gordon: Are there 10 players in beer softball? Name the person you think would hit behind you Meg!

Meg Rowley: I need more coffee

Dan: While the Mets start has been impressive, the Braves would have the same record would were it not for a bad slide, Vizcaino meltdown, and weather. They also hold one of the best (and young) offenses in baseball with Acuna on the verge and an impressive crop of pitching prospects. Why aren’t the Braves getting more publicity for their impressive play and blossoming future?

Meg Rowley: Because a lot of people don’t think about baseball in terms of Pythag or BaseRuns records, and the perception of where they each are in the competitive cycle is different.

Meg Rowley: Also, people are, I think understandably, more inclined to believe in a rotation that is here rather than one that is promised

Billy Beane: I think re: the Mariners it would be better for the Rockies to be in the west with the A’s and an expansion Portland team.

Meg Rowley: Well the Rockies are now the M’s “natural rivals” in inter league play, so they get a series there anyhow.

Burt Reynolds: What are your thoughts on B Nimmo? Is he getting over hyped or is his plate discipline really elite enough to even make the Mets realize he needs to play in the MLB?

Meg Rowley: Free Nimmo imo.

Sean: Could baseball players realistically change their collective temperament and play the game in a more gentlemanly fashion (eg, no takeout slides, no running into the catcher, no throwing at guys)? Do you think it’s a cultural or structural thing?

Meg Rowley: I don’t think it is a gentlemanly thing. I think it is a human thing. I think because we still see fits of nonsense that we sometimes forget how much less nonsense there is than there used to be. Some progress is being made!

Meg Rowley: I think you need rules + culture change. Culture will restrain many, and then you have rules with consequences for the rest.

Lunar verLander: If Nimmo has an offensive slump in the future, who gets first dibs on the “Finding Nimmo” article?

Meg Rowley: Congratulations, it is you!

John Stamos: Where can I find 2018 statcast data?

Meg Rowley: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search

54: Do you think of yourself as a baseball writer first and foremost, or a a writer who is currently primarily occupied by baseball?

Meg Rowley: a baseball writer

Meg Rowley: My academic interest was in theories of representation and democracy. Guess which one is more fun right now?

stever20: how big was the Nats comeback vs the Mets last night?  Was that a season saver already?

Meg Rowley: It’s April. The Nats need to win games, and games against division rivals, but I think we sometimes get too wrapped up in sequencing.

Tat: Are takeout slides and throwing at guys really comparable acts of temperament? Seems like one is intended for harm while the other usually isn’t

Meg Rowley: You don’t throw at a guy because you think it feels *good*

Justin: What Judge is better, less contact more power guy or this guy? (Obv he could still go back to the other guy, but if he were more like this or more like that)

Meg Rowley: Sort of a matter of preference, I suppose. I mean, this guy is literally better in terms of wRC+. This guy seems less exploitable. That’s good, too. For the Yankees, this guy. But if you like the 2017 version of Judge better just in terms of the aesthetics, I wouldn’t fault you.

TITUBS: is Jed Lowrie a great player now?

Meg Rowley: Maybe not *great* but it turns out that if you are finally healthy and finally able to sleep well, you’re better at athletic stuff. Also Athletics stuff.!

LosDoyers: Similar to judge, Bellinger has a very weird line thanks to SSS – hitting  .310 but his SLG is .448

Meg Rowley: As a fan of weird baseball, I like early season stuff. Also easy as someone who is not a fan of either the Dodgers or the Yankees.

yerp: I’m taking a non-sportsball friend to his first game Friday; how do I ensure he falls deeply in love and never wants to do anything else in his life besides engage in baseball? Only halfway kidding.

Meg Rowley: Don’t tell him you’re putting such weighty expectations on his first game. Get there early if you can for batting practice. Answer questions. Eat some good snacks. Be willing to leave a little early.

James: As far as I can tell, only one player on the astros has a wOBA that exceeds their xwOBA. Please tell me this will even out by, like, tonight.

Meg Rowley: I do not think you need to worry about the Astros generally or against Ariel Miranda specifically.

Doug: What? No more Vedder Cup?

Meg Rowley: A nation mourns.

stever20: So hr/g mlb wide right now have gone down from last year at 2.52 to this year so far 2.12.  Is this all cold weather related, or do you think there’s a major change we’re seeing?

Meg Rowley: Allow me a moment to find something

Meg Rowley: Rob Arthur makes a pretty compelling case that it is at least somewhat that the ball is less lively https://theathletic.com/311416/2018/04/12/home-runs-are-down-and-early…

54: Do you think the Francisco Mejia predator lawsuit ultimately cascades into the case for Minor League players to be paid in a more reasonable fashion, or is that a separate battle?

Meg Rowley: Separate battle and one that is moving in the wrong direction if you want them to get paid more unfortunately

v2micca: Teheran has looked good his last two starts.  Velocity is still down, but he was locating his breaking pitches well.  Are you Bullish or Bearish on him at this point?

Meg Rowley: Need to see more for longer personally

Earl Weaver’s tears: Meg: it’s clear to me as a former O’s fan that Balt. is going nowhere this year.  Is it too late to try and move Machado and Brach for any young pieces they can get?  If either one gets injured before the trade deadline, the opportunity is lost.

Meg Rowley: I just don’t think they are going to get enough for you to ever feel like they got all they could for those guys. If it were me, I’d just focus on enjoying them.

Tree: How thoroughly would a team have to dominate for MLB to step in and break things up somehow? 130 wins? 140?

Meg Rowley: For just one season? I’m sure it would invite some close looks to see if there was any funny business but absent that. 130 wins is so many wins, so I doubt it is ever an issue.

Manderson: Does Verlander enter the HOF with a Tigers hat?

Meg Rowley: Does Verlander enter the HOF?

54: How long until we see MLB expand again? Is a general contentment with the current setup keeping the league at 30, or the bear of filling out minor league systems, or something else?

Meg Rowley: Based on what Manfred has said, as soon as the stadium situations in Tampa and Oakland get sorted, it’ll be on the table in a more concrete way.

Adam: Was Acuna ready for the MLB after Spring Training? But we know he was primarily kept down for the extra year of control… Is 9 poor games in AAA enough to alter opinions of his readiness after 2017 and the Spring?

Meg Rowley: Not really. It’s been a rough go but I don’t think anyone’s assessments are meaningfully different now.

Henry Rowengartner: Where can I look at xwOBA?

Meg Rowley: Baseball Savant. Very handy.

Sean: Darkhorse, super-early-season SSS MVP candidates (eg, 2015 Josh Donaldson)?

Meg Rowley: Let’s agree to something between us. You agree that my actual MVP has not changed, and I still think it will be Mike Trout. Mike Trout is so good.

Meg Rowley: Agreed?

Meg Rowley: Acknowledge this is a Take

Meg Rowley: ?

Meg Rowley: Ok

Meg Rowley: Matt Chapman

Jon: In how many of your chats has some variation of “ME GROWLEY” been mentioned? It’s happened in every one I’ve seen so far. Is it prevalent in your real life?

I guess this comment is part of the problem, though.

¯\_(?)_/¯

Meg Rowley: At least five times every chat.

Tat: Where have all your articles gone!

Meg Rowley: Published last week, and will again this week. Managing THT takes time and at least some effort.

CamdenWarehouse: I thought you were a baseball pundit?

Meg Rowley: Are there people who willingly take on the title of pundit?

Tat: +/- what %: The Twins’ playoff odds have been hurt by the weather so far this much _________

Meg Rowley: We have their playoff odds as up slightly since the start of the season so, 0%?

Meg Rowley: Sean retooled our playoff odds page: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2018-04-17&dateD…

Meg Rowley: It is a fun toy.

54: Peer into your crystal ball and when it is all said and done, where does Mike Zunino’s career get plotted in relation to Matt Wieters?

Meg Rowley: Zunino is a better framer with just absurd raw power who is now (crosses fingers and toes) makes contact and has been pretty durable. They’re not natural comps and yes, I am a Zunino apologist, but if the swing changes stick I’d take Z.

Xavier: Is Michael Conforto overrated now? I feel like he’s more of a 3/4 WAR guy but people are talking about him like a 5+ WAR super star

Meg Rowley: I think people are talking about how happy they are he is back and healthy, and likely to play a bunch.

Loge Mazzilli: Are you at all concerned about the attendance drop? I’m a bit of a box score browser, and even factoring in the weather, it seems like there have been A LOT more 8-15 K games than usual.

Meg Rowley: Not yet. I think we should wait until later into the year. The weather has just been so gross. I do think that MLB should make a concerted effort to make game attendance more affordable.

Meg Rowley: I love what the Orioles are doing with letting kids in for free, or what the A’s and Rockies have done with their game pass programs.

Meg Rowley: That is a longer standing issue but while we’re talking about attendance.

The Hamburglar: The Mariner’s rotation is so gross outside of Paxton

Meg Rowley: 🙁

JoMama: The weather has never been this bad for so long to start the season… and chances are it won’t be like this for awhile. Why are people looking to fix a one time problem?  (I know there’s always April postponements, but never this much)

Meg Rowley: Perhaps they are concerned with the continued longterm worsening of storms due to changes in climate

Meg Rowley: or they are cold at a game and grumpy about it

Meg Rowley: either/or

James: Given the success of Verlander, Morton, and Cole after moving to Houston, does that make the astros a more attractive target for possible free agent pitchers?

Meg Rowley: Yes, though them being really good and likely to challenge for a World Series again at some point probably made them an attractive destination already.

54: It seems like a lot of professional baseball writers struggle to maintain their fandom through their career, especially after venturing off from covering “their” team. To each their own, or does it take a personal strategy to compartmentalize for the sake of objectivity?

Meg Rowley: I think it is mostly that you aren’t engaged with the day to day as much because you’re covering the whole league.

Meg Rowley: Sure, you have to be honest with yourself (and your readers) about potential bias. But for example, tonight I will watch Ohtani pitch. I will check in on the Puerto Rico series. I doubt I’ll see a pitch of the Mariners game.

Fredrick: Do you think expanding the season to include more off days at the start of 2018 has influenced decision makers to be more willing to postpone games? Or have all the postponements been entirely weather related?

Meg Rowley: The weather has been truly, truly awful.

Ozzie A: Please miss, don’t judge me on my small sample size!

Meg Rowley: This works both directions.

North Bill Bill North: Do you have more fun watching pitchers with awkward and funky deliveries or seemingly effortless ones?

Meg Rowley: Hmmmm. I enjoy them both for different reasons. You can’t make me pick!

Kyle Schwarber: Can I show you my taxes?

Meg Rowley: Please don’t

54: NOW THAT AN EXTRA YEAR OF CONTROL HAS BEEN ASSURED, WHICH PROSPECT ARE YOU MOST EXCITED TO SEE CALLED UP IN THE NEAR IMMEDIATE FUTURE?

Meg Rowley: Acuna and please stop yelling.

Texas Toast: Willie Calhoun should be up by mid-week this week right?  He’s hitting the ball well after a slow start & the Ranger injuries are piling up

Meg Rowley: I expect he’ll be up soon

Mike: Should Kershaw leave the Dodgers after this year, is there any way that he doesn’t end up pitching three shutouts against them in the World Series?

Meg Rowley: The world rarely provides us with such neat narratives, and also, I think he stays with the Dodgers.

Baseball for $100, Alex: Wait a minute…you’ll answer questions about Twins playoff odds, but not about an actual reality of Cahill starting today?

Meg Rowley: He is going to start today. Also, I have learned that today is the A’s 50th Anniversary game, so congrats to the A’s, and also to Trevor Cahill.

Minnesota Mike: I cut bait on Logan Morrison as he’s shown nothing, was I too aggressive in doing so?

Meg Rowley: Like, as a fan? A human person? A fantasy owner? Probably no to all three.

Dan Y: Why does MLB have to keep tinkering with the ball? They’ve had 100+ years so why is it so difficult to find a balance between offense and pitching?

Meg Rowley: Because the game and the people who play it change over time.

Bob: Kurt Suzuki has one strikeout in 32 at bats. ONE.

Meg Rowley: Kurt is sort of an underrated name for a man. Solid name.

v2micca: Despite it being utterly irrational, do you ever feel your actions possibly affect the outcome of a game?  For example, I was at that miserable Cubs/Braves game and bailed after the 5th with the Braves up by 7 runs.  Can’t shake the feeling that If I had stuck it out things might have gone differently.

Meg Rowley: I mean, you would have been cold outside longer.

Meg Rowley: That feeling is so tempting, but just remember that thousands of other people experience the same thing and do their own bits of sorcery.

Meg Rowley: Which means that even if it is really, it probably isn’t just your fault. Let yourself off the hook.

Sean: Who is the best hitting coach in the league? (seems like something we should be aware of given that more and more players seem to be consciously overhauling their plate approaches.)

Meg Rowley: Really hard to say, especially with so many guys working with outside coaches during the offseason. Isolating what is the hitting coach is really tricky.

Rollie’s Mustache: How long before television broadcasts bring pitch tunnelling into the mainstream? Eno’s recent article at the Athletic is proof that it’s possible to simplify a complicated concept and give the viewer a more meaningful reason as to why a pitcher is doing what he’s doing.

Meg Rowley: You still have broadcasts that resist OPS+.

Meg Rowley: I think it is a ways off.

Meg Rowley: Alright friends, I need to get going. I’m sorry for what I didn’t get to. Hope everyone has a good rest of the week and enjoys Ohtani later!