Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 5/1/18

Meg Rowley: Hello, and welcome to  the chat!

Meg Rowley: There are roughly 200 Dodgers questions in the queue. And we will get to many of them! But first…

CamdenWarehouse: What’s next for the Mariners and Ichiro and when does it happen?

Meg Rowley: I imagine a somewhat painful parting is imminent. Heredia isn’t an All-Star but he is clearly a better option at this point than Ichiro, even just as a defensive replacement.

Meg Rowley: I was always concerned about how this was going to end. I don’t think it will cast a shadow for too long (Ichiro has to be aware he isn’t playing super well) but it’s a bummer of a footnote to add to a franchise legend’s story.

Q-Ball: It is now May….so, can Nats fans officially panic?  Improved NL East really not helping either.

Meg Rowley: PANIC seems like a lot, but STRONG CONCERN isn’t crazy.

Meg Rowley: I don’t expect the Phillies and the Braves to be lasting obstacles, and there’s a lot of time to make up 5.5 games. We still have them projected to win the division, but it wouldn’t hurt to get to it.

Anonymous: Think the Dodgers trade Kershaw?

Meg Rowley: Not even one tiny bit.

Zonk: Jansen and Kershaw are looking mortal, Seager is gone, and their best hitter right now arguably is Matt Kemp.  Time to panic in Dodgerland?

Meg Rowley: This panic feels more justified. Maybe not PANIC but panic. The Diamondbacks are a really good team! They have such fun hats and players! And the Dodgers lost a guy that is much harder to paper over with internal options.

Hannah Hochevar: Clearly the O’s and Dodgers match up on Machado (so long as the O’s help with salary, which only makes getting solid prospects more likely) – but as an O’s fan I just think prying Manny loose is a ‘from my cold dead hands’ situation…

Meg Rowley: This is obviously going to be the conversation, and I will admit that I can be a terrible coward who disgraces her family in my reticence to predict trades, but I don’t think it ends up happening.

Meg Rowley: For one thing, it seems like if you’re the Dodgers, you kinda want it to happen like, right now to maximize your chances to make up the ground you’ve ceded to the D-backs.

Meg Rowley: If I were them I wouldn’t sweat the money (I get to say that! It isn’t my money!) but the prospects they’d have to give up seem like a lot for a rental.

Mark: I’m worried about Devon Travis’ future. I’ve loved him ever since the Jays stole him from the Tigers, but it looks like his health has jus totally sapped his ability to hit. Or am I overreacting?

Meg Rowley: It’s really a bummer. He’s one of those guys who we’ve always said, “Well, if he could just get healthy. Or just stay healthy.” But he’s never been able to do it. I don’t think it is unreasonable to shift your expectations downward.

Carl: Seager for Machado, along with some combination of cash from the O’s and lesser prospects from the Dodgers, to keep LA under the luxury tax. Who says no?

Meg Rowley: The Dodgers. Every single one.

David: OZZIE AND ACUNA VS THOR I’M SO EXCITED

Meg Rowley: It is indeed a very fun thing!

Gibby’s Waddle: I know all the analytics on Jarlin the Marlin scream regression is imminent — is there anything that shows that maybe, just maybe, some of what he is doing is real and sustainable?

Meg Rowley: He’s a human being and we defy expectations all the time? But to answer sincerely, it seems like a reckoning is coming.

Meg Rowley: Apart from anything else, that strand rate combined with his peripherals is terrifying.

Billy Beane: Hey Meg, you are good at twitter.

Meg Rowley: The mistake here is that no one is good at twitter. Twitter is inherently terrible but I will be shackled to it forever and ever as part of my professional life.

Kristen: Opportune time for TEX to deal Profar to LAD?  On one hand, he has been hitting pretty well lately.  On the other hand, TEX needs to rebuild in a big way.

Meg Rowley: Not sure they’d get all that much in return. The Rangers do need to rebuild. I would be surprised if Profar nets them the dudes they need to start doing so.

Pennsy: Are MLB owners responsible for providing a supportive atmosphere for gay players, or is the onus on gay players to come out and change the atmosphere for themselves?

Meg Rowley: My answer to “Should an employer do all they can to ensure their workplace is a respectful one, and that their employees refrain from harassment?” is always going to be yes.

Meg Rowley: Baseball is a workplace. We don’t think of it that way much of the time, but it is. It isn’t on Sally in accounting to make the case for her own human dignity to the other folks at the widget factory.

Keefths: Can you go whisper something sweet to Domingo so he can pick it up ?

Meg Rowley: It’s the damnedest thing, isn’t it? I need to look at it more closely to see  if there is something that can account for him putting everything on the ground now. If it’s not an injury, I’d expect it to right itself, but it is real weird.

Slurve: Which consistently below average players do you root for?  Why?

Meg Rowley: Excuse you, Mike Zunino is good now.

Lunar verLander: Clearly small sample size, but which Astros pitcher do you think will get the most Cy Young votes at the end of the season?

Meg Rowley: I’m inclined to say Verlander just because of the innings he’ll pitch, but ummm we should be talking about Charlie Morton more. We should talk about him a lot.

Meg Rowley: I’m still not used to him throwing 97 easily, but man.

Zvazda: Hi Meg! I know you, Jeff and basically everyone have talked that Felix is basically done now. I’m curious what we think that means? Do you mean he’s done being the king or he’s close to being done in the majors?

Maybe i’m looking through Felix tinted glasses but I feel like over his last couple starts I’ve been able to see what the future, low velo, solid #3 starter or so looks like. I’m still hoping he’s gonna get a couple seasons good enough to be in the HOF. :'(

Meg Rowley: I won’t speak for Jeff (though I will because I don’t think he’ll disagree) but I don’t think he is done being in the majors. And I agree that we’ve gotten a few really good looks at what an effective, back-end starter Felix looks like, which is very encouraging for those of us who like him. But I don’t think, apart from the odd game here or there, that we’ll see old Felix again.

Meg Rowley: It’s a small baseball tragedy. I worry people will forget how amazing he was because those Mariners teams were so stinking bad.

LosDoyers: Jung Ho Kang to the Dodgers? Might be a cheaper option than Machado (tons of question marks) but a change of scenery + the largest Koreatown in the US w/ Ryu might do some good there

Meg Rowley: The drop off from Seager to Kang is well… the drop off from Seager to Kang, and the optics of that move would worse, all for a guy who it isn’t clear has much to offer baseball-wise.

stever20: Am I crazy or are we seeing more position players having to have Tommy John Surgery?

Meg Rowley: I’m not sure it actually is more, but I agree that it seems like more.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Why does the site’s banner say that Justin is talking Fantasy when you are here talking real baseball?

Meg Rowley: Because he is talking fantasy, albeit over at RotoGraphs.

Bryce Harper: I didn’t expect our division to be so competitive.  Any chance I get traded at the deadline if the team continues to be out of playoff contention?

Meg Rowley: I doubt strongly you’ll be out of playoff contention at the deadline, and even then, really doubt it. Like, really really.

Vslyke: Lost in the Braves strong start is how bad Julio Teheran has been. Do you see any hope he can get back to his old form?

Meg Rowley: I have been a skeptic and I remain a skeptic.

CamdenWarehouse: Why doesn’t Cy Young’s 749 complete games get its proper due as the most unbreakable record in sports?

Meg Rowley: Because with the way the game has changed, it isn’t something anyone is chasing now.

Big Joe Mufferaw: I really want Cano to be traded.. I think he could age gracefully like Adrian Beltre, imagine his numbers if he wasnt playing in Seattle.

Meg Rowley: I assume there is a bit of silliness in this question. Since coming to Seattle:

Meg Rowley: 2014: 5.6 WAR, 2015 (injury plagued year): 2.8 WAR, 2016: 6.1 WAR, 2017: 3.1 WAR

Meg Rowley: He has a 152 wRC+ and is quietly off to one of the better starts in his career. I think that’s the “embrace your salt and pepper hair, drink merlot in the afternoon, still run half marathons” of aging gracefully.

Austin: The real most unbreakable record is Barry Bonds’ walks in 2004

Meg Rowley: Bryce is trying.

TKDC: The three youngest players in MLBl now all play for the Braves. That has to mean something.

Meg Rowley: It means we are all getting older. Just, so much older.

Bort: Alex Rodriguez came back from a multi-year layoff and didn’t seem to miss a beat as far as hitting went. Why does everyone appear to be assuming that a much younger Jung Ho Kang is cooked?

Meg Rowley: I think most people are saying they don’t know, though the player you’re comping him to might hold part of your answer.

Kevin: why aren’t we talking about Ronald Acuna?  This kid is legit!!

Meg Rowley: Obviously it is great for Acuña and the Braves. I’m about to make an obvious point. But I love it when dudes have a good, solid start because it spares us so much gnashing of teeth. They’ve shown they are capable of being good ball players. They’ll have to adjust and all that, and will have slumps but they can do this. Now, he probably can’t sustain a .500 BABIP, but he’s been great, great fun.

stever20: what are your thoughts on the Dodgers window?  Is it in danger of closing soon?  Would that impact their thoughts in making a move this season that they maybe in the past wouldn’t have made?

Meg Rowley: Seager being out for the year is obviously a very bad, sad thing that materially impacts their chances this year, but let’s not be hasty. They are in the enviable position of being rich, smart, and having depth, all of which help when dealing with situations like this in the longer term.

v2micca: I know the Braves are over-performing right now.  But at what point can Braves fans legitimately get excited about the potential of Post-Season Baseball in ATL?

Meg Rowley: When the pitching starts to round into form. I don’t think they are super far off, and the position player core is very good. Pitching will be the thing in my opinion.

Do The Chop: Why does everyone assume the Braves are over-performing right now? Looking at you v2micca

Meg Rowley: I think the broader point is that the WC field is pretty crowded in the NL, and there are teams ahead of them that are more complete.

David: The Mariners really seem like they are back-to-back poor starts away from having a major bullpen issue. Scrabble needs to go so we have a pitcher with more flexibility. Also lol at the Cano trade.

Meg Rowley: I am sure he is a lovely human, but Rzepczynski is one of my least favorite pitchers to watch pitch.

Meg Rowley: Diaz has been great so far, and they’re getting contributions from Chasen Bradford, who it seems pitches every day, and James Pazos. Nick Vincent hasn’t been quite as reliable. Wade LeBlanc is there to pitch the innings no one else wants.

Meg Rowley: My bigger concern is that Mariners starters can’t seem to go deep into games, so I worry the pen gets over used.

Andrew: Braves promoting Soroka for tonight — spot start, or chance to stick? With Gohara still recovering and back in AAA and Anibal Sanchez seemingly the only pitcher in his way, think he might just be here to stay?

Meg Rowley: There’s a place for him if they want to give it, especially with Teheran doing whatever it is he is doing. That slider is interesting.

Zonk: The D-Backs may be a good team, but the uniforms are godawful.  Agree, or no?

Meg Rowley: Hot take: Disagree. I don’t love the all gray unis but the others have grown on me, and their throwbacks are wonderful. I bought two hats in spring training, and both were throwback Diamondbacks hats. Yes, my mother worries about me a lot! Thank you for asking!

2-D: Without even looking I’m going to guess Josh Hader just notched another strikeout.

Meg Rowley: Loads the dishwasher that way. It’s big mess. He’s had to switch to all plastic. His family appreciates the commitment to his craft but is candidly sick of the bit.

DG: Meg, what makes you the happiest?

Meg Rowley: Sitting on a patio in 74 degree weather with good drinks and snacks and exactly four other people I like.

v2micca: Soroka and Gohara could both be options for starters without really displacing anyone in the rotation.  The 2017 Dodgers showed us how to do it.

Meg Rowley: Sure. They have choices there. But there aren’t a bunch of Cy Youngs in the way.

Guest: Did you ever go to Mallards games when you were in Madison?

Meg Rowley: I did not, to my great sadness and shame.

Josh R: Make me feel better about injuries.  I just don’t remember anybody with a strained oblique 20 years ago. Other than hamstrings, nobody missed 6 weeks with muscle pulls in the “good old days”

Meg Rowley: Guys did in fact used to get hurt. They missed time. Sometimes they played through those injuries. They were often bad when they did that! Treating injuries extends careers, and a good old days that teaches athletes to ignore treatable pain isn’t all that good.

Do The Chop: Josh Hader is already the best pitcher in the NL Central. Agree or Disagree

Meg Rowley: He’s really good! He’s a reliever! So disagree.

Roman Numeral Three: Are Neil Walker and Jacoby Elsbury in danger of being DFAed?

Meg Rowley: That infield is getting crowded and Walker isn’t playing well. I’m not sure what the latest is on Ellsbury’s injuries.

Mike sixel: How are Lance Lynn and LoMo this bad? And will Buxton ever hit and be healthy? Sigh.

Meg Rowley: You know when you’re aware that something is bad, but you don’t think about it regularly, and then you look at it, and it is way worse than you thought?

Meg Rowley: That’s LoMo’s line right now. Good grief. Ditto Lynn’s walks. SO MANY WALKS.

Meg Rowley: Lynn probably isn’t this bad, and LoMo probably isn’t this bad either. But LoMo’s best is often just ok, so that’s a bummer for him.

Tom: Thoughts on Franchy? The plate discipline numbers are much improved and he still hits the crap out of the ball

Meg Rowley: I’m really enjoying watching him, and the approach looks legitimately improved. The defense is prone to some silliness, but he’s good and fun on a team that needs good and fun.

Jarrard: Do you believe in Caleb Smith?

Meg Rowley: I am intrigued by Caleb Smith.

Fellow M’s Fan: Is the Kyle Seager of pre-2017 ever coming back?

Meg Rowley: Probably

Meg Rowley: This actually isn’t his worst April

Do The Chop: Would you rather have Ozzie Albies or Javy Baez for the next 5 years

Meg Rowley: These questions are always weird, but Albies I guess? I don’t feel a ton of conviction about it.

T: Is Stroman toast?

Meg Rowley: The hard contact is concerning and the walks aren’t great. The velo is down a tick and the control has been very spotty. That said, I don’t think he is quite this bad. Not toast but definitely a bit more cooked than you’d like.

Optimistic M’s Fan: Any positive indicators that the Mariners starting rotation is going to get better? Erasmo has been awful, but I feel like Leake’s numbers are misleading and that there’s more to this staff than we’ve seen so far.

Meg Rowley: Paxton’s command has looked better? Some people are excited about Marco Gonzales? Outside of Paxton it isn’t a good group. It is weird to say this, but it’s bummer Kuma’s had a set back. This team could use him! Oh no!

stever20: How surprised are you at the Giants start right now?  15-14 after last year 1st 29 games going only 11-18.  All of this without Madbum.  Can they keep this up until he gets back?

Meg Rowley: I always thought they’d be better than last year, but I didn’t think they’d be over .500. Cueto being really good again sure does help a lot.

ThatsNotMyMonster: Obviously Ohtani and Hader are one-of-a-kind, but do you anticipate more teams trying out-of-the-box player utilization? (e.g., two-way players, multi-inning firemen, crazy shifts, etc.)

Meg Rowley: I think we’ll still see two-way players very rarely, but I would expect more multi-inning guys, and definitely more dudes who capable of playing multiple positions as a feature rather than a bug

Meg Rowley: Alright folks, I have to get going. Editing awaits! Sorry for what I couldn’t answer. See you all next week!