Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 7/23/19

Meg Rowley: Hi all, and welcome to the chat. Allow me one more moment of marching orders relaying, and then we’ll get started.

Meg Rowley: Ok, here we go.

Meg Rowley: Hello, baseball folks.

Jimmy: I’m not sure if you do fantasy questions, but would you trade a $2 Julio Rodriguez for a $27 Carlos Correa – currently in 1st, but hate trading away the next best thing!

Meg Rowley: I do not do fantasy questions, mostly because I don’t know anything and would give bad advice.

Xolo: As a fan, how do you handle your team adding a player who you dislike for off the field reasons?

Meg Rowley: It’s tricky. It’s tricky to even talk about, because while it absolutely alters our experience as fans, we want to be careful to avoid centering ourselves when we should be centering victims. I think it is ok to take breaks from teams you like, or express to those teams your displeasure. It’s also ok to remember that there isn’t really any completely ethical consumption of pro baseball. Which isn’t to excuse that stuff or say that you should throw your hands up. But no team is paying their minor leaguers a living wage. To be a fan is sadly to be compromised.

Meg Rowley: Wow, that’s a bummer of an answer

Meg Rowley: True, but a bummer. But also, you can still like a thing you like very much without liking every part of it.

matt: Should the phillies really be selling like two of their top five prospects for Matt Boyd? Should anyone? Feels like there’s a decent chance this is fluky, I say without any evidence.

Meg Rowley: It would not be my preference, though things have improved for Boyd in July, and the drop in home runs suggests maybe the pitch mix is different, though the rate is still not awesome. But they also need pitching help. The ideal solution would be to get a better pitcher but isn’t that always the solution?

(not that) James: I want my team to trade for an impact starting pitcher.  I don’t want my team to trade any of its best prospects.  I feel like this is a reasonable position to take.

Meg Rowley: It is a time that lends itself to irrationality but then, doesn’t fandom usually do that?

Scott: As a Giants fan, their recent hot streak has been really fun! But as a realistic Giants fan, I know that their true talent is probably a .500 team or worse, and it’d be best for their future if they sell off Bumgarner, Smith, Dyson, etc. How do I reconcile these two sides of fandom?

Meg Rowley: Remember that you’ve gotten three World Series parades very recently, and coast on good-ass feeling from that?

Lunar verLander: If you had to pick one, would you say that this trade deadline is going to be more “crazy” or “lazy”?

Meg Rowley: Going to have a piece on this later in the week. In chatting with front office sorts, I think even teams are sort of waiting to see how this week plays out, because it likely impacts the decisions of teams like SF and Texas pretty dramatically.

Scott: What do the Rays do with their ridiculous surplus of middle infield prospects? Trade some for help at the deadline? Move them to corner IF/OF positions? Trust that attrition will simplify things?

Meg Rowley: Why not all three! But trades seem very, very likely. Heck, a trade has already happened. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-rays-and-rangers-swap-prospects/

Guest: Springer for Bauer, who hangs up?

Meg Rowley: Yes

FanFan: Is it possible the Padres are able to unload Myers by packaging him with Yates and money and still get an okay, lottery-type return?

Meg Rowley: Sure, but seems like a misuse of Yates.

Chuck: Is Keston Hiura going to come crashing down to earth with that 66% contact rate?

Meg Rowley: Imagine there will be some regression but I really like the bat, and so does Eric. Read his call-up piece on Hiura, both for the scouting stuff and the charming hot chocolate story. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/called-up-keston-hiura/

J: I’m not sure if you do fantasy questions, but is it normal that mine involves Fernando Tatis feeding me grapes?

Meg Rowley: Oh extremely

astigmatic: Will there be any coverage on what has happened with the Indians lately? A lot of FG writers pointed out how disappointing their off-season was. I don’t disagree. But, I’m curious to know what’s going on here. Did they actually manage to patch many/most holes?

Meg Rowley: Have commissioned just such a piece today.

Matt: Any concern Vlad Jr has the Eric Hosmer profile? He has a near 50% GB-rate that has some history in the minors. Of player with 150 batted balls, no player has a lower launch angle on fastballs inside the strike-zone. I KNOW he is 20, but batted ball stuff stabilizes quickly(Hosmer was a uber-prospect with 70’s on his hit and raw power if I remember correctly)

Meg Rowley: Not really.

Aaron: Thoughts on Yordan Alvarez’s start to his career? What is his upside potential?

Meg Rowley: The bat looks great, and he is hitting the ball extremely hard. The upside is limited by the whole he’s almost certainly a DH thing, but like, really good DHs are useful. It’s still only 30 games but there’s enough in there to sit up straighter in your chair.

Meg Rowley: I expect, if this continues, he’ll be one of the dudes who jumps up the trade value series ranking pretty quick and fairly high come next summer.

billie flyballish: do you think bellinger sustains this new version of himself? Comparing him and yelich – they have nearly identical stats though diff slugging %… yelich running a higher babip but has sustained? thoughts?

Meg Rowley: the differences in approach, the improvement in the body, being able to layoff those backfoot breaking balls…. will he be a perennial MVP candidate? probably not — that’s really hard! but he’s very good in a way that appears to be real.

Ryan: What team are you most interested in as the trade deadline approaches? Giants seem like an obvious answer, but I’m also pretty interested to see what teams in the Centrals do.

Meg Rowley: also curious how/what Boston does, and what the Rays do

Meg Rowley: Would sleep better feeling like I understood the Reds better, so maybe they’ll do some stuff to make that happen.

David: Is the NL playoff race about as competitive as it is in the AL now? The Phillies, Brewers, and Dbacks are the only teams that seem like they could steal a playoff spot.

Meg Rowley: You don’t believe in the Giants? For shame!

Meg Rowley: (kidding…very kidding)

GSon: Afternoon Meg.. was it an emotional moment for you to see Edgar go into the hall?.. discuss…

Meg Rowley: Yes. In addition to being an amazing hitter and an important part of my young sports life, it is very nice to see a guy who is, by all accounts, a stellar human be recognized at a moment when baseball and its environs have so many stinkers.

Norman: Will the Brewers actually do anything to address their rotation?

Meg Rowley: Probably!

Logan: Without looking at what’s going the other way, which guy is a better fit for the Cubs: Whit Merrifield or Nick Castellanos?

Meg Rowley: Merrifield because I think he’s a better player and isn’t made of stone in the field.

Guest: I am excited to meet the Fangraphs crew at the Boston meetup, is anyone going to see Mike Trout in Boston that weekend too?

Meg Rowley: Sadly the timing of games didn’t work out. Friday we have the meetup, and then we have to, you know, go to Saberseminar.

John : Fernando makes me feel things in places that I thought were long dead. Is this the Padres’ Ichiro moment? If so, what advice do you have for maximize the embrace?

Meg Rowley: Just enjoy it, man. Just try to appreciate all the things about it.

Meg Rowley: I am very enamored with the idea of San Diego as a baseball town since the Padres are the only pro game going really.

Big Joe Mufferaw: So word on the street are MLB teams are asking for the moon and the sun for their trade targets. Is this the start of a new trend or just a waiting game?

Meg Rowley: Waiting game, coupled with a weird market.

Trevor: Which team is most at risk of alienating its fan base with its deadline decision.  Giants, if they don’t buy in response to their recent hot streak?  Indians, if they stand pat because they’re still concerned about spending?  Phillies, if they don’t do enough to try to make good on sky-high pre-season expectations?  Etc.

Meg Rowley: Probably Cleveland, SF, then Philly?

Meg Rowley: I don’t think you can accuse Philly of not trying in the offseason, and fans maybe understand the true state of things in SF?

Meg Rowley: Meanwhile Cleveland has to do something sometime, right?

Conor: Should I be worried about the Cubs? Media in Chicago/elsewhere seems very concerned about the team’s chances of making the playoffs, but they still have a slight lead and a very big run differential compared to the rest of the NLC…

Meg Rowley: They have holes and it is a tough division.

Meg Rowley: I don’t think it is a crisis but standing pat seems ill-advised.

Cat Latos: I’m ok with LAD going into the playoffs without having traded lux, may, or ruiz away. I think they can patch a pen together. Am I crazy?

Meg Rowley: they should improve the bullpen — this bullpen isn’t good

Meg Rowley: I’m not convinced it takes a top-line prospect to do it

Big Joe Mufferaw: Re: Vladdy,

Big Joe Mufferaw: Re: Vladdy, why not really? I think Matt brought up good points, I feel it deserves a better response than that..

Meg Rowley: Because the bat profiles are still different, they’re pretty different players, and it still isn’t even a full season of play?

David: Does Cleveland actually have to do anything at the deadline? I’m not saying it would be a great idea to stand pat but they’re still good enough to make the playoffs with the current roster, maybe even win the division with some luck.

Meg Rowley: what if they weren’t just content with maybe winning the division

Meg Rowley: I get that a lot can happen in the playoffs and I’m not saying they can’t win there. I am saying, if you’re a Cleveland fan, this approach has to feel pretty crappy, and wouldn’t it be nice if they did better?

Nate: Can we get all these Vladdy doubters on written record somewhere, so that whenever he finally has that monster breakout…they can be shamed?

Meg Rowley: Don’t think that’s the right approach. There is risk in the profile and of course prospects don’t work out! But I’m not concerned about that yet.

Meg Rowley: I don’t mean this as a knock on you, but I find those who are the most keen to keep score on this stuff often are the ones who’d end up being the least pleased with their score?

Bo: Do you like the Nationals to take the east more than the 18% chance FG has as of today?

Meg Rowley: Not especially — I think the Braves are really good

Alex: Hot Take: Marlins reach World Series in 2021 under leadership of Garett Cooper

Meg Rowley: That is indeed a hot take.

Lunar verLander: Is FanGraphs planning on having a trade deadline mega-chat?

Meg Rowley: We will have a chat — how mega it is is tbd because people have to write

Meg Rowley: but yes, a chat!

We are the same: Hi Meg. We are the same age. How did you manage to extricate yourself from a career path you loathed and find your way to one you appear to be thrilled to have?

Meg Rowley: I worked really hard, networked well, and got very, very lucky. The luck part makes everyone uncomfortable because it is not fair, but it is important to acknowledge.

Big Joe Mufferaw: Bellingers season is very similar to Harper’s MVP season. Plus, they are quite similar hitters (and swings). Who do you think best for the next 3 years?

Meg Rowley: Overall, probably Bellinger if this sustains because he’s more valuable in other aspects of his game.

Rich: Biggest mistake: the Athletics releasing Max Muncy to go sign with the Dodgers; the Dodgers trading Yordan Alvarez to the Astros; or the Astros trading Ramon Laureano to the Athletics?

Meg Rowley: Probably the A’s

Meg Rowley: Mostly because they’re the least well equipped to absorb mistakes.

Johnny: I can’t go to many games in person, but the one I did go to had a guy who heckled the left fielder(Reynolds in Pittsburgh) and also, for some reason, his own team’s left fielder(Nick Williams on the Phillies). Are hecklers common at ballgames? It was pret vexing because he did it the whole game.

Meg Rowley: I think they pop up, though less often than you’d expect given how awful humans can be?

Bo: At this point, does a deadline that falls more on the “lazy” side favor teams who are currently in playoff positions?

Meg Rowley: Yes, I’d think so generally, assuming the team in question isn’t wildly outperforming their underlying metrics and production

GSon: Word has it that Cleveland will be adding a two time Cy Young winning pitcher along with a pair of RP’s, one with a 98 mph fastball that he throws a split change out of the same tunnel. THE second, a fire balling former top of the starting rotation starter to be used in the pen.. think that might be enough?

Meg Rowley: How’s that outfield look?

Meg Rowley: Like I said, they might be able to get there as is! A lot can happen in the playoffs! But why settle for that?

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Every team singing God Bless America during the seventh inning stretch now…..gross or meh?

Meg Rowley: It is not for me.

AL : who will win the AL ?

Meg Rowley: Astros but it will be close

CLE OF: We look great, use your own website to check it out buddy.

Meg Rowley: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=5

Meg Rowley: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

Meg Rowley: aspire to more!

narvain: Hi Meg thanks for the chat.  My question is when people start their questions with “Hi Meg thanks for the chat” are you more likely to answer their question?

Meg Rowley: No, though courtesy is always nice.

Fat Matt: I don’t feel bad for anyone who goes to a baseball game and one of the worst parts is God Bless America.

Meg Rowley: Ok, but that wasn’t the question, or, I imagine, the point?

mike raisin: who leaves the dbacks first, greinke or ray?

Meg Rowley: Ray, I think.

Cleveland Indians: Did you ever think we’d be within 3 games of Minnesota with 2 months left after falling 11.5 behind?

Meg Rowley: No, though I didn’t expect you to stay 11.5 games back, either.

CLE OF: 6th in wRC+ since the beginning of May – aspiring and achieving!  https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&…

Meg Rowley: fandom is so weird — why not say hey, what if you did more than try to get me excited about a good couple of weeks from Tyler Naquin and Jordan Luplow?

Wow: Men on the internet really want to try and prove you wrong?

Meg Rowley: In the world but yeah, it takes on a particular flavor online. Now, I am often wrong, for I am human, and friendly discussion of that wrongness isn’t bad.

Meg Rowley: But also…

Fat Matt: If someone asks if that portion of the event is “gross or meh,” I assumed that they viewed it as a bad part of the game.  There’s just so many other things that people should worry about.

Meg Rowley: A lot of things can be objectionable simultaneously, even if they are differently objectionable. I think raising an eyebrow at an exercise in forced patriotism is worthwhile.

Meg Rowley: Basically, don’t underestimate my ability to be mad at all the things.

Genuine Ask: Do you feel that publishing the unfriendly discussion (and outclassing them) shuts them down or do they push harder?

Meg Rowley: I try not to publish the really yucky stuff because it is generally not baseball related and is absolutely there is get a rise out of me and I am trying to be better about not accommodating that, though as I told a friend recently, I am sometimes weak. BUT people disagreeing about the state of the outfield in Cleveland is not problematic, just goofy.

urgent please answer: Could Ohtani throw a splitter so nasty that he himself could not hit it

Meg Rowley: I am going to think about this once a day for the rest of my life.

CamdenWarehouse: and teams should stop telling me to stand and remove my hat for GBA

Meg Rowley: This makes my dad, who served, so mad.

hypothetically: who would be better at throwing out baserunners, prime yadier molina or wellington castillo with a revolver? Assumptions: Castillo gets six bullets and like instant replay he can get another bullet if he succesfully throws out the runner. Molina is unarmed

Meg Rowley: Think that’s a good place to call it!

Meg Rowley: Thanks for all the questions, sorry for the mannnyyyyyy trade proposals I didn’t field.

Meg Rowley: I will plan to chat at my usual time next week, but I reserve the right to not do that if the deadline is nutty and I need to edit. But I promise to alert the masses should that occur.

Meg Rowley: Hope everyone has a great week!