Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 8/27/19

Meg Rowley: Good morning and welcome to the chat.

Meg Rowley: What a nice day for a chat — allow me a moment to fetch a seltzer.

Aaron: After watching the A’s last week, if they had this year’s team with last year’s bullpen performance, they might we a top-3 team in MLB. What on earth happens to bullpens when they plummet like this? Why does bad relief pitching seem to snowball so much?

Meg Rowley: For any one reliever, it isn’t a ton of innings, they have more limited repertoires than starters do, which makes it harder to adjust if things go badly, and if more than a couple are ineffective for a while, you get other dudes pitching more than might be advisable. It’s just a recipe for volatility.

Lucas: Has David Appelman ever done a chat about the business of Fangraphs? I would enjoy that, and I’m sure others would as well.

Meg Rowley: David’s not much for chats, but (and my delay has been in trying to find the episode) he did a guest spot on Effectively Wild that might be of interest

Meg Rowley: Here we are: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-1321-you-are-the-…

Meg Rowley: The whole episode isn’t about that, but there are some insights you might find interesting.

Greene: Who are the favorites for the NL and AL Cy Youngs?

Meg Rowley: So imagine right now the AL is Lynn vs. Charlie Morton (what a world, what a time) — the NL has gotten more interesting, but seems like it is basically Scherzer/deGrom. This is where one’s view of the importance of IP probably decides it for you.

Ollienyy: In your personal opinion, do you think the Yankees offense will be strong enough to get through a likely postseason matchup with the Astros or will lack of Premium Starting pitching still cost them?

Meg Rowley: I think the Astros emerge from that series, and I think you see Yankees relievers throwing a fair number of innings.

David: Some basebaww: Apparently Vogelbach and Kikuchi are best friends.
To the point that Kikuchi’s son is named Leo Daniel Kikuchi, and Yusei has confirmed the middle name is named after Vogelbach. Goldsmith mentioned this on the recent Dipoto podcast.

Meg Rowley: That’s a nice thing. It’s been a not good season in Seattle, but that is nice

Leland: Narvaez/Murph 2020: who do the Mariners keep and who do they trade?

Meg Rowley: Seems like they’ll keep both? You need a back up (I know the playing time split has been closer to 50/50), they aren’t likely to be contending next year, and there’s no reason to rush Raleigh along.

Nick: Should JD Martinez opt out?  On one hand, it’s hard to see him getting a larger deal in the slow free-agent market of recent seasons; on the other hand, the only real competition in the OF/DH market this off-season is . . . Yasiel Puig?

Meg Rowley: I’d be surprised — even with a relative dearth of other options, he’s 32 and really shouldn’t play in the outfield.

Trent: Which manager is most likely to be fired?  And which manager do you think most *deserves* to be fired?

Meg Rowley: Not really in the habit of calling for people’s jobs, but, and at the risk of igniting the fires of Queens-based grievance, I have not found Callaway to be especially impressive, despite the recent improvement in the Mets’ chances of playing October baseball.

Derek: Were those black and white player’s weekend uniforms supposed to symbolize something or have some kind of purpose? They made for a rough weekend of watching baseball…

Meg Rowley: I had heard that the idea was that the players would use them as a canvas, and wear bright and distinctive shoes, arm sleeves, etc. and use bats with a similar purpose.

Meg Rowley: I didn’t especially care for the white unis (I thought the black unis often looked cool), but I do appreciate them trying stuff.

Ed: Beautiful morning in Seattle, Meg! What’s your guess on whether MLB will tone-down the baseballs next year?

Meg Rowley: I’d be surprised (errrr uh assuming for a moment they control the ball, which, hey, who’s to say, not me) given how much of the current offensive environment is supported by home runs.

Olson: As, Rays, Indians; Cubs, Phillies, Mets:  Which two teams miss out on the wildcards?

Meg Rowley: Think the Phillies and Mets will miss out in the NL, as I expect Nats/Cubs — strong chance Cleveland misses the mark in the AL.

Andy: Soooooo the cardinals?

Meg Rowley: Wishing I’d had more conviction in my preseason predictions now.

Jason: Are the White Sox going to be Padres-y fun next year?  They’ll have Eloy, Moncada, Robert, Madrigal, Cease, Kopech, Giolito… maybe Vaughn.  That feels like a lot of guys.

Meg Rowley: The system isn’t as deep, there are question marks with some of those dudes, and I think we’re still a little reticent to call this rebuild fixed, but they are definitely more fun now than they were at the start of the season.

Miss Chanandler Bong: Is it actually possible that Clayton Kershaw has become underappreciated? In his “down” years since 2018, he’s put up 20.5 K-BB%, 2.75 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 311.1 IP (4.3 WAR/200). For reference, here’s a four-year stretch from a current CY contender: 16.3 K-BB%, 3.59 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 773 IP (4.1 WAR/200). That pitcher is Justin Verlander from 2014 to 2017.

Meg Rowley: Hard to be underappreciated when you’re the consensus best pitcher in baseball for as long as Kershaw was, but I think we have yet to start appreciating his new, graceful start to the decline as fully as we will in a season or two.

Quincy: Should I feel more happiness that Jose Ramirez found his offensive prowess at the plate or more sadness that he broke his hamate bone? (P.S. Thanks for doing the FanGraphs event in Cleveland – I went to the Derby and All-Star game but the FanGraphs event was my highlight of the weekend)

Meg Rowley: First, thanks for coming and hanging out with us — and happy, I would think? Things looked… very bleak for a while there. Always better to be hurt than just bad. To be clear, it is bad to be hurt, I don’t wish anyone to get hurt, but in terms of emotional experience, the possibility that the badness is temporary is nice.

John B: In a dynasty ottoneu fangraphs points league I have been offered $4 Forrest Whitley for my $4 Andrew Vaughn. Would you take that deal?

Meg Rowley: I would direct you to a fantasy chat, as I care about you personally and want you to get advice from actual experts.

Gila Monster: Is Zac Gallen looking like an ace? He has four near elite pitches by whiffs via Statcast and has really embraced his changeup.

Meg Rowley: Ace feels strong (we overuse that descriptor imo) but I think there is a reasonable argument to be made that even with the loss of Greinke, the addition of Gallen and Leake are at worst a net neutral for that big league roster, which is pretty nifty.

Meg Rowley: I’m like very much what the Dbacks are up to.

Cat Latos: I like cats as much as I like a reliable bullpen. How come some competitive teams don’t like having a reliable bullpen?

Meg Rowley: Maybe feeling alive only comes under very specific circumstances for them.

Ryan: In honor of college football starting, which do you think happens first: The Astros miss the playoffs or Alabama misses the playoffs?

Meg Rowley: Astros — they have to pay people.

Ryan: Who wins the Centrals?

Meg Rowley: Cards and Twins, imo.

Dave: If you could pick any player in baseball, besides Trout, to join your Mariners, who would it be?

Meg Rowley: Oh sure, now they’re *my* Mariners.

Meg Rowley: Hmmmm.

Meg Rowley: Position player? Lindor. Pitcher? Shane Bieber.

Anthony: Sooooo is Tauchman a rookie or not

Meg Rowley: He is not.

ThickTanPretzel: Hi Meg, I’ve been fascinated by what’s going on at Deadspin over the past month or so – the investigative reporting about new management, and EIC Megan Greenwell’s decision to leave. It seems like Deadspin is corporate-owned but their writers are union protected, so not sure how relevant their situation is to FanGraphs, but I’d be curious to hear your thoughts about how vulnerable you and others in your profession feel to monied overlords coming in and telling you how to do journalism. Thanks!

Meg Rowley: FanGraphs is a very weird, special, unicorn of a place — the only overlord we recognize is Appelman, and he’s a great boss (not just saying that, I swear). But in the industry more generally? It’s a big, big problem, and a pressure that we should all be worried about in every sort of digital media.

Meg Rowley: It isn’t altering the shape of coverage everywhere or impeding good work (the folks at Deadspin are still trudging on) but it a disconcerting, if not alarming, time.

Jubilee: Do you think Felix showed enough for a team to take a chance on more then a minor league deal next season? Also do you think he would ever embrace the possibility of ever being a reliever or even closer?

Meg Rowley: I think he is likely to get a minor league deal with an invite to spring training, though a team like Miami might take a flier.

Meg Rowley: And I’m not sure — it wasn’t well received in Seattle but I think that had more to do (or at least, a lot to do) with org politics and slights than anything else.

Meg Rowley: I have one more Felix column in me but I’ve been saving it because lately I haven’t felt sad, and I have been enjoying that.

Thomas: Can you just tell me one redeeming, rewarding, warming (any positive adjective really) analytical stat about the cubs? I feel like every very involved person in baseball just says how overrated we are and it makes me sad 🙁

Meg Rowley: I swear I ask this in a nice way: are they saying the Cubs are overrated, or are they saying there are aspects of their roster that just aren’t very good?

Meg Rowley: Those aren’t the same thing.

Meg Rowley: Kris Bryant is having a nice lil bounce back. That’s good.

Meg Rowley: Javy Baez? Also good!

Meg Rowley: That’s two whole good things!

Guest: Do you think the yankees will try to resign Didi or Betances?

Meg Rowley: Don’t have inside info but Didi yes, Dellin no.

Hunter: What if age never comes for Justin Verlander, and he just kind of stays like this forever, fueled by petty grudges with local sportswriters who reveal his love of space against his will?

Meg Rowley: Time comes for us all, no matter how keen our grudges.

Silver Lining Showdown: Who has the better career: Josh Bell or Daniel Vogelbach?

Meg Rowley: Josh Bell.

Lance Lynn: Cy Young because of WAR? #’s are mediocre across the board to be one of the favorites

Meg Rowley: Tied for the second-best FIP in the AL.

Lunar verLander: re. AL Cy Young: No love for Verlander or Cole?

Meg Rowley: Of course in the convo, but that wasn’t the question.

2-D: Are you going to relish or bid good riddance to the last season of 40 man September baseball?

Meg Rowley: I know it makes games longer, but I’m bummed they are getting trimmed. It’s nice to get a look at guys, and the callups mean a lot to some fringe roster dudes.

Derek: Are there any broadcast teams you particularly like (or dislike)?

Meg Rowley: this is not an exhaustive list by any means, but I enjoy the Padres, D-backs, and Dodgers booths

btrams: re, NL Cy Young: Ryu?

Meg Rowley: Is a good pitcher! The ERA will be appealing to people! I think Scherzer and deGrom are more deserving!

Meg Rowley: I like exclamation points!

Dennis: How often does Mike Petriello broadcast games? I heard him once and would love to hear him more

Meg Rowley: I agree — he does a good job.

Dennis: Do u think MLB should change the rules so teams can have two separate squads, one for Defense one for Offense so it would be fun to see the best of both?

Meg Rowley: No.

Dennis: As a huge Mets fan is it smart to root for them to do poorly so they can get a regime change and not have a manager/gm who says he makes 80% of his decisions against analytics?

Meg Rowley: I think you should root for them to do well because ownership seems to be a not insignificant part of the problem and likely isn’t going anywhere.

Meg Rowley: You guys very recently got the fun of a World Series, and the playoffs — the dysfunction isn’t always such an issue that it prevents good baseball.

Marshall: Would football be a more enjoyable game (from fans’ perspective) if offensive players had to play defense, and vice versa?

Meg Rowley: No, but the sports can be different.

Ryan: When are we going to see your article on the 12 minute Red Sox game?

Meg Rowley: David, you can just call me.

Meg Rowley: (soon)

Dennis: Do you like exclamation points because it looks like a baseball bat   !

Meg Rowley: No but now I won’t be able to unsee that.

Matt W: Wouldn’t the all-white/black jerseys have been better if they had some kind of trim or accent in a team’s color? Maybe outline the name/number in a color? It was impossible to see the nicknames, and when watching highlights, there was no way to tell by looking what teams were involved.

Meg Rowley: Also, put the umps in neon. Made it very confusing when the team where black was in the field.

Knuckles: How much of Shane Bieber is his quality of a pitcher and how much is the fun that comes with yelling “Hey Beebs!” and watching a bunch of JumboTron high stepping?

Meg Rowley: The second doesn’t get in the way of the first, which is saying something.

Yankees/Dodgers: That… kinda felt like a playoff series, didn’t it?

Meg Rowley: Yes.

Meg Rowley: Not the one I think we’ll get ultimately, but yes.

Phills Phan: I’ve heard multiple Phillies players in postgame interviews basically beg the fans to stick by them and basically stop booing them. Do you think a change in the level of support a home crowd gives a team could/would have an effect on how that team plays at home?

Meg Rowley: I think being miserable at work can impact job performance, but probably not so much that it would tilt a season, and not in a way that is easy to measure.

btrams: soooo what’s the WS matchup

Meg Rowley: Astros/Dodgers

Greg: I don’t drink coffee but somehow it became my job to order coffee for the break room. What flavors should I get?

Meg Rowley: Not keen on flavored coffee personally.

Meg Rowley: Ok pals, I need to get rolling. Thanks for the questions, and sorry for what I didn’t get to. The site will be dark next Monday for the holiday, and I will not be chatting next week as I will be in the mountains with rather spotty internet.

Meg Rowley: Have a great week, and see you in September!