Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 8/3/18

Meg Rowley: Good afternoon from Boston, and welcome!

Meg Rowley: This should be the last week for a while where the schedule is wonky, so thanks everyone for being patient.

stever20: Is Bryce Harper officially back?

Meg Rowley: Was Bryce Harper ever really gone? I know this season has not gone the way that he or the Nationals wanted it to. I know that the increase in strike outs has worried some. I also don’t want to chalk it all up to BABIP.

Meg Rowley: But barring some injury we don’t really know about, I think this is a fluky, weird year, that we’ll look back on and think, “Huh, that was strange.”

Moelicious: Does Meg purchase overpriced stadium food or sneak in her own treats?

Meg Rowley: I can’t speak to all ballparks but at Safeco you don’t have to sneak in food. You can bring in snacks! I have done both. It is nice to not have to spend a zillion dollars if you don’t want to, but also nice that there are tasty options if you want to splurge.

the Amazin’s: I know this isn’t about baseball, but what is your take on the Urban Meyer situation going on at OSU?

Meg Rowley: I think if the last two years have taught us anything, it is that predators thrive in environments where their abuse is ignored and thereby enabled. I think it is important that there are serious consequences for those who allow abuse to thrive. The consequences for victims are certainly severe.

Kino Interntionale: If for some reason you had been compelled yesterday afternoon to make a list of the least likely players to walk 5 times in a game, where would Roughned Odor have ranked?

Meg Rowley: That was crazy enough. That one of them was a bases loaded walk? That Dee Gordon also walked once on the same night? That’s some dark magic.

Lucas Giolito: Are you worried about me?

Meg Rowley: Yes, yes I am. I think your margins for error weren’t huge and you’ve been not good for a while now.

Stefan: If mike trout was in a wheel chair for life but was guaranteed still retained all over his batted ball skills (like no drop off).  He could still hit home runs, hit for a high average and drive runners in no problem, but he would be slow on the base paths and also very bad in center field.  Would teams still want him?

Meg Rowley: I think that being wheelchair-bound would mean that Mike Trout couldn’t play professional baseball. That said, I think that Mike Trout would probably make a really terrific coach. So if some tragedy befell him, and he was still interested in being around the game, I think the game would have room for him.

Justin: Has Cleveland done enough to legitimately compete for the World Series or do they need to add more before the end of August? Tommy Pham would’ve been a great acquisition.

Meg Rowley: I think if the bullpen stabilizes with the trades and Andrew Miller, which I expect it will, they are in really good shape.

Meg Rowley: Pham would certainly have been nice as insurance given Brantley’s health history, but Martin isn’t a bad second option, and I feel a lot better about them than I did a month ago.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Meg! It’s been three weeks since you’ve given us a business word!

Meg Rowley: Been too busy with the business! There is not a business word on my forthcoming episode of FanGraphs audio, but I promise more soon.

Cool: If the Angels struggle into the beginning of next year and look out of it by the deadline what are the chances they trade Trout?

Meg Rowley: I go back and forth on this. On the one hand, like, which team could acquire him? Would you want to be the GM who traded the greatest player maybe ever? On the other hand, if you wait too long you’re really not going to get a return that makes your fanbase feel good.

Belted: Hey Meg, I really enjoyed your article on ‘the grumps’. It seems to me that it would be in MLB’s best interest to make sure radio and TV broadcast crews were actually enthusiastic about the game *as it is today*. Do you see a change coming in that regard? Side note – how much of this is Joe Morgan’s fault?

Meg Rowley: I think some of this will naturally take care of itself as a new generation of broadcasters come in. Teams could certainly prioritize it in their hiring. Another important way to combat this and appeal to fans is to diversify the broadcasting corps.

Meg Rowley: The thing about people really loving baseball is that it allows you to do so much. When things are good, your joy shines through. When events merit criticism, you’re in a position to make suggestions and offer critiques and have people believe you’re doing so for the game’s betterment.

Greg: So do you have any thoughts on the Osuna fiasco in Houston? I feel like obviously, domestic abuse is a horrible thing…and if it turns out to be as bad as we think, then he and Luhnow deserve to get crucified for everything. But aren’t we jumping the gun a little to make conclusions before we know the details of the case? Not that it’s out of the realm of possibility, but I have a really hard time wrapping my head around why Luhnow would do this and put his job on the line/risk a clubhouse mutiny without having a decent understanding of what happened…could definitely be wrong though

Meg Rowley: I’ve seen a lot of this sentiment floating around in various forms and would like to note two things.

Meg Rowley: First, the evidence was compelling enough to MLB for them to issue what I believe is the third longest suspension since the policy was adopted in 2015. Whatever else you might think of the policy, I think most people would agree that they haven’t been overly strident when they don’t think there is evidence of wrong doing.

Meg Rowley: That the suspension was as long as it was after a thorough investigation is a pretty compelling reason to think there was a  serious issue here.

Meg Rowley: And second, I don’t think Luhnow is in danger of suffering much in the way of actual consequences here. Theo Epstein is doing just fine.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Obviously, a more stringent punishment for DV offenses (say: a postseason ban similar to PED violators) is something many want to see. However, how does (or should) this sqaure with the players trying to improve their standings vis-a-vis the collective bargaining agreement? I would think that some concession (possibly even just a minor one) to the players should be given in exchange for agreeing to greater punishment scope for DV offenses, but if the union fights for this, can’t gain any concessions from the owners, and the policy stays as it is, who (if anyone) is in the wrong?

Meg Rowley: Suspension policies are always tricky for unions because their basic role is to advocate for their members and keep them on the field as much as possible. I would also like to think that the union is (or will be) savvy enough to recognize that being overly strident here looks just terrible.

Meg Rowley: As for who is in the wrong? I hope they can come together on this issue. We should also remember that what the Astros did here was an active choice. When teams do this it is always an active choice. They could have made other choices, but they made this one. That the policy incentivizes that behavior does not absolve them from their active choice.

Vlad Jr’s Grandma: How do you feel about the Jays annual sojourn to SafeCo? Lots of Mariners fans seem to get quite salty.

Meg Rowley: I will speak only for myself and say that I have had a few really unpleasant experiences with Jays fans during that series, especially in recent year, and I think the number of fans there emboldens some of them to behave badly.

Meg Rowley: I don’t mind having a lot of opposing fans in the park and most of them are fine and I get the appeal given how far away Toronto is. But I don’t love being heckled for cheering for my own team in my own ballpark.

tb.25: Mariners 🙁

Meg Rowley: More like 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁

Meg Rowley: because you see, for how many years it has been

GERB: Jose stole 11 bases in July. I’m pretty sure he’s decided he wants to go 40/40, think he gets there?

Meg Rowley: I think it’ll be tight on the stolen base side. Not impossible, but pretty tricky. I think he’ll go past 40 on the HRs though.

Hooha: What was it like watching the red sox v yankees game in Boston last night?

Meg Rowley: When I left my hotel for dinner, the Yankees were up I think five-zip. When I turned around at dinner two hours later they were down a billion to five. So mostly very disorienting.

CrashedDavis: the M’s are no longer in playoff position. while that drought ending would be fun, as an Os fan, at least we’re not the Mariners is one of the only joys in baseball this year

Meg Rowley: Hey at least if they make it, I’m sure Edwin Diaz will pitch in the wild card. Was that mean? Yes, but so was your thing.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Congratulations on emceeing Women in the Ballpark Night at Safeco again!

Meg Rowley: Thank you! I’m really excited we’re having the event again, and were able to incorporate some new voices to share their perspectives on their careers and on baseball more generally. It’s going to be a great evening.

Meg Rowley: If you’re in Seattle and care to join us, you can buy tickets here: https://www.mlb.com/mariners/tickets/specials/beyond-the-baselines

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: The AL has some really compelling races for MVP (Trout/Ramirez/Betts), Cy Young (Sale/Bauer), and ROY (Torres/Bauers/Ohtani). What are your early predictions?

Meg Rowley: I still think it’ll be Trout when it’s all said and done. Sale if the should stuff clears up quickly and he’s ok after. Torres for ROY for now.

Flex: Yasiel and the Bat: a tale as old as time?

Meg Rowley: True as it can be.

Kino Interntionale: How many players in the NL have at least a 1% chance of winning this year’s MVP?

Meg Rowley: hmmmm 10? 8? 6.5!

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Does a multi touchdown beatdown like the Brewers took last night, or the Mets took earlier in the week meaningfully change projections of a given team the rest of the season? That 16 runs was a good chunk of the Brewers’ season-long run differential!

Meg Rowley: It can but obviously for teams with much thinner margins.

Meg Rowley: 16 runs is a lot in a game and can be a big chunk of the Brewers, but matters a lot less for the Astros. Their projections typically reflect that margin some already

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Do the Mets fire-sale it this offseason after settling their GM situation? After the top of their rotation, Conforto, and maybe Nimmo and/or Flores, that roster gets ugly in a hurry.

Meg Rowley: They’ve said they aren’t going to, but honestly, I’ve given up trying to predict what they are going to do. All I am counting on is someone roughly five years older than I am, who isn’t very good in the lineup for 75% of games for no good reason at all.

Bo: Who, in your opinion, “won” the deadline? Not necessarily who got the best players, but who looks to have made the best deals?

Meg Rowley: Those aren’t related questions?

Meg Rowley: I like what the Dodgers did. I like what Cleveland did. I still am pretty confused by the Rays but what else is new.

Baseball Fan: What does MLB do to address the overabundance of position-players pitching? Expand rosters? Seems like the MLBPA wouldn’t fight them too hard on a extra spot or two

Meg Rowley: I don’t think having more relievers on rosters is something we’re super jazzed by.

Bo: Acuna seems to be coming into his own in the leadoff spot. Is there any merit to the lineup change causing the spark? Or is it simply that he’s finally getting comfortable at the major league level?

Meg Rowley: Probably more overall comfort I would guess

Moelicious: Players robotically talk about how winning is everything but Adam Jones shot down an opportunity to go to a contender because????? Do you believe players really care about winning or it’s mostly about maximizing their individual performances in order to stay employed and get paid well?

Meg Rowley: I think players, like all human beings are complex, and care about lots of things, and how much they care about each individual thing can vary over time.

Charles Finley: Would anyone be interested in trading for Roughned Odor?  Also, how effed is the rangers organization rn, given their lack of MLB talent and bloated payroll?

Meg Rowley: Here is my thing with Odor: even when he is good, he still isn’t that great. The bat has turned around and thank goodness, but he isn’t a good baserunner and outside of some highlights, the glove isn’t that great either.

Meg Rowley: It can still be a fun profile when it is working but when it isn’t, it is dreadful, and it was recently very dreadful

Jenny: Even as a Mariners fan, I feel like Oakland is at least moderately cheer-able given Moneyball and Beane being the first gay GM but dang this dream season ended quickly.

Meg Rowley: You’re mistaking Billy Beane and Billy Bean, but yes, they are pretty root-for-able in my opinion.

Meg Rowley: Also the season isn’t over! But it doesn’t look great.

Bravesy McBravesface: I don’t mean to sound rude, but it feels like your article yesterday was essentially complaining about people complaining about baseball.  It also seems like you, as well as several other writers on this site, have made a habit of writing pieces that complain about the social issues surrounding baseball.  Those things don’t really square up for me.  Your position seems to be that complaining is only okay when baseball writers do it.  Can you please tell me what I’m missing?

Meg Rowley: As I said in the piece, if we are going to spend time and energy fretting about the game, I think there are more productive targets than whether Chase Utley wears socks during batting practice.

Meg Rowley: Letting people like the game as it is now, or like different parts of the game the most, and hoping for change around the DV policy, players’ attitudes toward women, people of color, and members of the LGBTQ community aren’t mutually exclusive goals.

LegalEagle: Planning to visit Seattle in early December. Suggestions?

Meg Rowley: Come back in July?

All Cats Are Beautiful : Re: grumpy announcers. I wish there were multiple broadcast teams. A dinosaur team like now. A stats team. A comedy team. Whatever. There’s no technological limitation to doing so.

Meg Rowley: I would imagine that it is mostly a budgetary consideration, but it isn’t a bad idea. I do like broadcasts having the challenge of appealing to broad audiences though.

Meg Rowley: Baseball is, at least in part, about coming together. I like it when we engage the same game at the same time. It’s one of the best parts of the postseason.

duder: I’m with Greg.  The majority of baseball writers have crucified the guy without knowing any real details of the case.  That’s irresponsible.  The mlb suspension seems like they’re just covering their own ass on the PR front, maybe partly because the media already deemed him guilty.  Maybe not, but Manfred didn’t have much of an explanation for the suspension.  Osuna says he accepted it because he’s trying to be cooperative.  He intends to plead innocent.  I think he deserves his due process.  If and when he’s convicted, then crucify the guy.  Just show some patience before passing judgment.

Meg Rowley: Apart from anything else, the policy explicitly doesn’t require a criminal finding to issue a suspension. The part of the policy he was investigated under was different, but the league didn’t suspend Sanó after sexual misconduct allegations this spring due to what they deemed insufficient evidence. MLB isn’t in the habit of siding with victims out of PR concern. And I would imagine part of why Manfred was circumspect was the ongoing criminal case.

Meg Rowley: I’d also remind you that as an employee, he received the process he was guaranteed under a collectively bargained policy.

Morton Salt Girl: It is the third longest in a sample size of, what, 8?  Don’t give the dude who was dragging you for being terrible at analytics ammo by being terrible at analytics.

Meg Rowley: The point is that a 75-game suspension is itself an indication of seriousness and we know what the longer ones entailed.

Scott: The Mariners would have best record in the National League

Meg Rowley: 🙁

Zihuatanejo: What do you think we, the consumers of baseball, can do to discourage game-grumpiness?  Write MLB?  Only watch games with pleasant announcers?  Throw rocks at John Smoltz?

Meg Rowley: Please don’t throw rocks at anyone!

Meg Rowley: I think having clear eyed enthusiasm is good. I think providing feedback is good.

Cone: Has anyone ever called you Rowdy Rowley?

Meg Rowley: Not before today.

JRuby: Gut feeling: who out of the Braves, Nationals and Phillies makes the postseason?

Meg Rowley: Braves and Phillies

Ron: Are Jays fans really that bad? I had always thought they were so polite in Canada. I’ve been at games where the 7 Line and that Dodgers Pantone group were there and both times they seemed very respectful and gracious.

Meg Rowley: We all get a little thrill out of being rowdy. And that’s fine! But I’ve had a few experiences more akin to when the Yankees or Red Sox are around and that’s less fun.

Ryan: Are position players pitching still a fun thing?

Meg Rowley: Less and less with each day.

Meg Rowley: I think the only one I’ve really enjoyed has been Rizzo taking the mound for the cubs just because he’s a better player than you typically see in that spot.

Moltar: The Mets need more than a GM, they need a team president in the worst way. And not like the one we have, who is the owner’s son and has never held a real job his dad didn’t get for him.

Meg Rowley: Real talk: the Mets need new ownership.

Ben: Yankees twitter up in arms over whether they should be positive (on pace for 100+ wins, 2nd best record in baseball) or negative (gonna go to a Wild Card, team has been mediocre for at least a month and a half and pitching is faling apart). Thoughts?

Meg Rowley: Winning a lot is bad for you. Winning a lot messes you up. Everyone should experience more losing.

OddBall Herrera: How deafening would the calls for change to the W.C. system be if the A’s or Mariners walk into Yankee stadium and beat them in a one game playoff?  That’d be low-hanging-fruit-clickbait stuff sports writers can only dream of.

Meg Rowley: That is always the risk. That’s why it is good to win the division. And we don’t have to indulge the worst parts of sports media.

Matt: Wait…did Jenny just misspell the Oakland GM’s last name? Or are there two different people? Is Billy Bean(e?) the GM? I’m so confused now.

Meg Rowley: Billy Beane is Oakland’s GM. Billy Bean is a former outfielder and MLB’s first  Ambassador for Inclusion, working with clubs and players to make the league more inclusive. Bean came out in 1999, after his playing career ended. Just a mistake I would imagine, and one that probably confuses people often.

GoMs: Weird how Meg is the only one who ever gets attacked in her chats… *hand on chin emoji*

Meg Rowley: That isn’t true. There’s disagreement in most chats. I will say it can take on a different tone here, though that isn’t true of all the disagreement I face. Disagreement is totally fine and is in fact, welcome.

Meg Rowley: I also don’t publish the worst ones.

Meg Rowley: Ok, sorry to leave it on a sort of downer note, but I have to get going.

Meg Rowley: Next week, I am back on Tuesdays and by popular demand, at 2 PM ET so that chats don’t overlap.

Meg Rowley: If you’re in Boston, our Saberseminar Eve meetup is tonight at Meadhall at 7 pm. We hope you can join us.

Meg Rowley: Until then, as Jeff would say, have great days!