Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 9/25/18

Meg Rowley: Hello and welcome to the chat!

Gerald: Do you like prospects? Baseball prospects to be clear.

Meg Rowley: Gerald, we’ve already talked about this.

Omar Linares: Can we please take a second to laugh at Mike Rizzo for trading away Blake Treinen and Jesus Luzardo for Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle?

Meg Rowley: That seems like too big a reaction, and an unkind one.

Meg Rowley: Doolittle has been hurt for stretches but still managed a two win season this year, and I don’t think most people thought Treinen would be quite this good.

Meg Rowley: We can laugh at others but we should do so remembering that they can laugh back. We are all fairly ridiculous.

Dave: Are you rooting for anyone in the playoffs?

Meg Rowley: I am rooting for good, interesting baseball.

Meg Rowley: In terms of my personal preferences, it is funny, you start to root for outcomes based on where folks you know have ended up in baseball.

Conner from AZ: Is it possible that Mookie Betts’ season is being overlooked? This is legitimately one of the greatest baseball seasons ever

Meg Rowley: I think we talk about Mookie a lot, and a lot is appropriate!

Brian CashGod: This has been a fun season, but damn am I pumped for the next month-plus! AL playoffs are going to be a slugfest, NL playoffs are going to have a lot of fresh faces, World Series is always a blast, and this offseason is shaping up to be one of the most memorable in a while. Let’s go!!

Brian CashGod: Also, FanGraphs is still doing live chats for a lot of the playoff games, right?

Meg Rowley: We will be doing live chats. Which games will be on the schedule, I don’t think we’ve decided yet.

Meg Rowley: We won’t chat them all (they aren’t all that interesting), but the WC games for sure, and the World Series. The series in between we’re still working out.

Rays GM: What should be on my shopping list for this offseason?

Meg Rowley: Some starting pitching wouldn’t suck, nor would a good bat.

Buck Schowalter: The Astros are on pace to have a historically good run differential in the modern era (behind only the 1998 Yanks and 01 M’s) and I was wondering how much of this was due to the dilution of competition currently going on in baseball. However, ESPN has the Astros opponents as having the best winning percentage in baseball (tied with Texas and Seattle). Baseball Prospectus has their adjusted win percentage at .693 which equates to a 113 win pace. Are they in serious contention for one of the all time regular season baseball teams?

Meg Rowley: I’m not sure about all that but they are impressively well balanced. We have them as having the best WS odds, and I find that hard to argue with.

Bork: Did Jayson Werth call the cops nerds as they read his blood alcohol content when he got a DUI?

Meg Rowley: You know when you try to make a joke and it just doesn’t land?

Hae-Lo Dee: There seems to be a big split in the M’s community between blow it up and ride it out. What do you think will happen? What do you hope will happen?

Meg Rowley: I think the time has come for the rebuild to commence, personally.

Meg Rowley: If I were them, I would try to move Díaz and Paxton.

Meg Rowley: I wouldn’t be surprised if they held on to Seager just to have him rebuild some value.

Meg Rowley: I feel bad. Their idea was to build a team that could win 85-90 games and go to the Wild Card, and they did the first part, even if it took this season from Díaz, and it still didn’t work.

Meg Rowley: I don’t know how much you can really get for the aging core, but it is time.

Trixie: Which team’s September collapse was worse: the Phillies or the Diamondbacks?

Meg Rowley: The Diamondbacks’ stings worse but also feels pretty excusable. They had a horribly hard stretch of games.

Meg Rowley: The Phillies are still, as far as I’m concerned, a bit ahead of schedule. I feel bad for D-backs fans. It is going to get harder from here.

Sharkarenado: After another amazing season by Mike Trout, which MLB record do you think he’s most likely to threaten by the end of his career: Most home runs, most hits, all-time WAR, or something else?

Meg Rowley: All-time WAR?

Wes: When do 10/5 rights set in? End of season or beginning? e.g. can a player veto a December 2018 trade or do they not get an opinion until the season starts in March 2019.

Meg Rowley: I would imagine at the end of the season. It’s based on service time and consecutive seasons spent with a team.

Jose Cardenal Virtues: I am new to this whole chatting thing. I keep changing my name for my chat posts. Is that considered bad form?

Meg Rowley: I suppose I would consider it bad form to change names in the same chat so that I would pick more of your questions.

Meg Rowley: Or if the name changes were meant to mask you as someone who asks nasty questions. But assuming neither is true, changing them week to week strikes me as fine.

Jsto: What odds do you give the Brewers winning the division?

Meg Rowley: 16.2% (yes, those are our playoff odds)

Meg Rowley: It’s only a game and a half but there just isn’t a lot of time

stever20: If Snell doesn’t win the AL Cy Young this year- who do you think wins it- Sale or Verlander?

Meg Rowley: Hmmmmm

Meg Rowley: Let’s think about what we might assume about voters

Meg Rowley: It should be noted that by our WAR, Verlander leads both (of course, he’s pitched more)

Meg Rowley: Snell leads by RA9-WAR (or did last time I checked)

Meg Rowley: I think if Snell doesn’t win, I think Verlander will because it’ll signal voters care a lot about innings.

Billy Beane: Hi Meg, what’s your prediction for the AL wildcard game? I have a sneaky feeling that we’re going to win it, and 28 other teams will laugh along with us.

Meg Rowley: In one game, predictions seem very silly, and both teams will bullpen the crap out of it.

Meg Rowley: I like that A’s team a lot. We somehow haven’t talked enough about how well they are hitting.

Meg Rowley: It’s really a toss up but I wouldn’t hate the A’s winning at all.

Jinder: Should MLB,  or individual teams, prohibit Barstool from hosting Barstool at the Ballpark? Barstool is a bad company but it doesn’t seem like the events are a bad thing

Meg Rowley: Britni de la Cretaz wrote a really smart piece about these events back in July that I would encourage you to read https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/barstool-at-the-ballpark-night/

Meg Rowley: If we are acknowledging that they are a bad site on which people write demeaning, awful things about all sorts of folks, and from which very real, awful harassment is directed and encouraged, it’s a partnership I wouldn’t be comfortable with if I were running a team promo department.

Meg Rowley: MLB is trying to attract new fans and retain old ones, so there is a tension around these events, but I don’t know how you say you care about marginalized fans, never mind the women, non-binary people, LGBTQ people and people of color who cover your game, and also associate with these guys.

Bobby Cox: Fangraphs has never written an article about Hall of Fame outfielder Harry “the Slug” Heilmann. Surely this site can provide a scouting report and a synopsis on Hall of Fame players that are at least as long as what the site does for 45 FV high school prospects?

Meg Rowley: Not sure how much value there is in a scouting report on a guy who died in 1951 but there is a lot of great coverage on the game’s history, some of which happens at The Hardball Times, much of which comes from other outlets. I’m not FanGraphs is the place for it.

Jinder: Should the Cubs take action (trade, suspend, release) against Russel without a verdict from an MLB investigation?

Meg Rowley: I don’t have an issue with them waiting until the MLB investigation concludes, though they don’t have to wait.

Dub: Does Kapler help or hurt the Phillies’ chances of signing Harper and/or Machado?

Meg Rowley: I’m not sure how much it matters honestly. It’s about the money.

Meg Rowley: And the desire to win a ring. I’m sure manager personality factors some, but only at the margins, after $$ have been discussed.

Dub: Outside of Yankee fans, MLB, & Fox everyone will be rooting for the A’s in the WC game right?

Meg Rowley: The Yankees have engaging, likable players, and we shouldn’t underestimate how many casual fans found their way into the game through the Yankees.

Meg Rowley: But I would imagine that many more attentive fans are likely to side with Oakland.

JerkFace: I found out Mike Trout’s flaw. 30 Grade HR swing. It’s not violent like Stanton, nor smooth like Griffey. The two handed half follow through looks like he didn’t get all of it. Most of his HR’s look like line drives in the gap that carry 425 ft. over the wall.

Meg Rowley: I actually like that about him. Nothing will ever top Griffey’s swing for me, but something about that “holy crap, that was a home run” from Trout makes me really appreciate him. Like, imagine being that strong and looking so modest about it.

My Name Is Garfield: What do you think the odds are that Kershaw, Harper and Machado are all playing for the Dodgers next year?

Meg Rowley: Kershaw very high, Harper and Machado quite low, though Machado more likely than Harper.

Matt: Do you like prospectors? Gold prospectors, to be clear.

Meg Rowley: No, it is bad for the environment.

Woad Raider: How amazing will it be if the Dodgers miss the playoffs?

Meg Rowley: It will be surprising, that’s for sure.

Guest: Thoughts on NL winning inter league play this year?

Meg Rowley: We don’t really know if that means much and also, the Orioles and Royals are terrible.

Tony: Put my two week notice on and quit my job without anything lined up. Any advice? Just couldn’t continue

Meg Rowley: Don’t buy a new TV, do start looking for a new gig, but also, remember that we only live so long and being miserable at work isn’t worth it if you’re at all in a position to do something about it.

Curious fan: Is anyone running the community graphs now? Saw the last post was more than a month ago.

Meg Rowley: This was going to shift around but I am not sure where it landed. I will ask!

CubbieBlues: Hey Meg, what do you think would be an appropriate way for the Cubs to handle Addison Russell? And a second question: what do you think they’ll actually do?

Meg Rowley: A suspension seems appropriate, though MLB might take care of that for them.

Meg Rowley: He’s not all that good, so they might just cut their losses.

Meg Rowley: I would like it if they would have a DV expert come in and talk to that clubhouse about how to talk about this stuff.

Meg Rowley: Rizzo kind of botched it, though I think the impulse to say “I don’t know what happened” is better than when dudes say things like “Oh he’s a great guy in the clubhouse.”

Lazzaro Da Fietta: Odd man out: Dodgers, Rockies or Cards?

Meg Rowley: Rockies, I expect.

Herzog & co.: Is there any chance Harrison Bader wins the ROY? He’s right up there in WAR. I know he doesn’t have the future that Acuna or Soto are likely to have, but the award is supposed to be for what you’ve done, not what you might do in the future, right?

Meg Rowley: I would be surprised. He’s been great, but Acuña has been better and in less time. I don’t think him winning is an injustice.

Lou: You think the Giants will try to build an more analytical FO with Evans being removed from the GM position or will they not change course from their current philosophy?

Meg Rowley: The spread on how analytical orgs are has really compressed but still, hopefully, they use it as a chance for a reset. Easier to hire an analytically inclined guy or gal, than change course mid stream.

Brett: Do you see the A’s using a Bullpen Day (or, *clutches pearls* an OPENER?) in the Wild Card?

Meg Rowley: I wouldn’t be surprised if they start with a starter, and similarly unsurprised to see that starter go two to three innings.

I Have To Go To Work Tomorrow: Please spare a thought for us baseball fans here in England. The most exciting month of the season is upon us, but so many of the games will start at between midnight and 3am local time.

Meg Rowley: Can you secure a temporary assignment stateside?

Moltar: Are weekday daytime playoff games still a thing? I’ve always been so baffled by the reasoning behind putting your best, most exciting games on TV at a time when the vast majority of potential viewers are at work or school. Air all the games overlapping in prime time instead.

Meg Rowley: I believe they are and I also found them very irritating when I was not doing this job.

About to Graduate: Say you’re getting a graduate degree in Statistics and love baseball.  Best interest to pursue?  A blog, or something else?

Meg Rowley: Depends on what you want to do. If you have the credentials and want to work in a front office, I’d do a little public facing work so you have something to show when you’re interviewing for internships.

Ian: How much longer do you think it is until we see actual consideration from the Angels on trading Mike Trout?

Meg Rowley: I’m sure they will talk about it this offseason just as they’ll talk about a very, very long extension.

Bork: I believe 10/5 rights is exact to the day, including mid season. Players can be traded the day before they would hit it.

Meg Rowley: I believe this is correct

Bork: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-10-and-5-rights/ from 2011 but they haven’t changed since then

Meg Rowley: Oh hey there you go.

Lefty : Kim Ng reportedly on Giants short list. Great hire?

Meg Rowley: I am sure she would be! I look forward to the day when we have more names on this list. A lot more names. I don’t know that Kim Ng wants to be a GM. She has a pretty rad job now.

H Town Melo: As an Astros fan, I’m more scared of the Indians than the Red Sox. Short series, great rotation, this one has a classic Houston sports let down written all over it.

Meg Rowley: Your favorite team won the World Series literally last year.

Meg Rowley: You are the reigning World Series Champions.

Meg Rowley: I get being afraid of that Cleveland rotation.

Woad Raider: Would a Rockies – A’s World Series be a great thing for baseball?

Meg Rowley: I think expanding the circle of teams that contend is always good. Something fresh is always good.

Meg Rowley: Though we’d have to watch that Rockies team hit, which feels… less good.

Jonny: I get why Ohtani is the frontrunner, but why do people seem to think that Andujar and Torres have better Rookie of the Year cases than Joey Wendle? Is it Yankees over Rays bias, prioritizing offense way over defense, prioritizing top prospects over surprise rookies, or a combination?

Meg Rowley: I think it is all of those things.

Nik: I’m considering how much I will pay for a seat at the division series and (GOD PLEASE) the world series. I’d pay $1200 for a seat. I am not wealthy, but I’m not poor. I have have to attend alone, and damn I’ll attend alone. Would you attend the WS alone?

Meg Rowley: I love going to baseball games alone, so yes. I like going to games with friends, too. Don’t get me wrong. But there is something very different about attending solo.

Depressed Jays Fan: Trout’s only flaw….mediocre at best defense. And it is something nobody wants to be caught dead talking about.

Meg Rowley: People do talk about that. If for no other reason than it is has rebounded from last year.

AIrport Banana: Can you quantify how much of an advantage big market teams have over small market teams in terms of WAR or Wins Above Average? Seems tricky to pin down, but it’d be nice to estimate how many more expected wins the Cubs/Dodgers would have over the Brewers/Rockies over a certain time period based only on market size or payroll.

Meg Rowley: If you’re talking about the projections, and you assume there is some relationship between quality of player and payroll (which, that’s tricky of course with how good young guys are, but think about a team like the Dodgers), we already sort of do.

TheDaver39: Astros or Indians – who do you like?

Meg Rowley: Astros to win, Cleveland to enjoy

Jay Gaffe: Osuna’s assault charge has been withdrawn! Now we can move on and focus on baseball again

Meg Rowley: First,

Meg Rowley: Second, I would invite you to think about a better way to talk about issues like this.

Walking Stephen Piscotty: Will the AL West basically be dominated by the Astros and A’s for the next 2-3 years?

Meg Rowley: More the Astros than the A’s but yeah

Lyle Overhead Bobblebay Doll: I loved hearing the Brewers broadcast enjoy and embrace last night’s unusual bullpen strategy. In your daily baseball watching, would you say broadcasters are more willing to engage with out-of-the-box thinking than before or is it same-old same-old?

Meg Rowley: I think it depends tremendously on the broadcast. There is a lot of variation.

Depressed Jays Fan: Trouts defense may have rebounded but it isnt great. Not by a long shot.

Meg Rowley: I don’t think I said that.

TheDaver39: Jose Ramirez has trailed off quite a bit in the past month. Can he turn it back on in the postseason?

Meg Rowley: I am not super worried. I am a little bit worried. I am not super worried.

Adam: If he ever does leave the Angels (either via trade or free agency), which team would you want to see Trout go to?

Meg Rowley: I always assume money will matter a lot so I’m inclined to say Yankees, but Phillies seems like a possibility (this is in free agency, obviously).

Meg Rowley: We aren’t very sophisticated when it comes to diagnosing what drives these guys’ decisions.

Walking Stephen Piscotty: Are we going to get Cubs-Dodgers NLCS for the third straight year?

Meg Rowley: I think yes, but boy, I do like that Brewers team.

JH: An idea I had while thinking about Ohtani DHing next season: all NL teams should try to get their pitching prospects at least a couple hundred PAs in the minors at DH during years lost to TJ on the theory that maybe it’ll help them develop a little bit as hitters for when they ascend to the no-DH league. Thoughts?

Meg Rowley: I think so yes, but I do like that Brewers team.