Is 50 Games Too Weak a PED Punishment?

As you know by now, Melky Cabrera failed a drug test and was suspended for 50 games yesterday for using synthetic testosterone during the best season of his career. Cabrera will miss the rest of the Giants’ regular season, but he’s already been worth 4.5 WAR to the Giants, and some people within the game are grumbling that a mere 50 game suspension isn’t enough of a deterrent to prevent ballplayers from taking performance-enhancing drugs. If it isn’t an effective deterrent, is it an adequate punishment?

Kirk Gibson, the manager of the Diamondbacks, was outspoken yesterday. “Obviously, there’s not a big enough deterrent if it continues,” he told the Arizona Republic. “I think it should be a minimum of a year (for a first positive) and after that it should just be banned.” So what kind of suspension would adequately deter players from using banned drugs?

It’s very likely that almost no number of games could compete with the $60 to $70 million that he may have cost himself in the offseason free agent market, as Dave Cameron writes. Nothing incents like dollars and cents, to coin a phrase. For a walk year player in Cabrera’s position, where cheating could literally earn him the better part of a hundred million bucks, it’s easy to imagine that even a one-year punishment wouldn’t be high enough, especially with disgraced BALCO founder Victor Conte claiming that “To circumvent the test is like taking candy from a baby.”

The effectiveness of the deterrent will depend on the player’s own expected value, how much they have to gain against how much they have to lose. A player like Cabrera, in a walk year, on a team in a dogfight for the division, could hardly have any more to gain. A player like Manny Ramirez, on his last legs, trying to prove that he still deserves one of 25 roster spots, could hardly have less to lose. Players like them would have the greatest incentive to cheat. And I doubt that either a 15-game suspension or a 150-game suspension would much affect their calculus, considering that the first stands to make seven years of guaranteed salary and the second is on the verge of retirement anyway.

The third type of player with an elevated likelihood of cheating would be a minor leaguer who is trying to stick in the majors. The major league minimum is an order of magnitude greater than the minor league minimum, and drug testing is more stringent in the minor leagues, where players are not covered by the MLBPA. A player who arrived in the major leagues and wanted to stick there would similarly have an elevated incentive to use. A player like Alex Sanchez, for example. But they have much more to lose, because a positive test could just about end their career.

(I’ve always thought it strange that the suspension for steroids is not much higher than the 60-day suspension that Otis Nixon received for testing positive for cocaine in 1991. Of course, that occurred in the context of Len Bias legislation and the recent memory of cocaine destroying baseball in Pittsburgh for most of the decade. It was a special circumstance.)

The more difficult question is how to deal with the aftermath. Obviously, the Giants won’t be vacating the victories they won with Melky Cabrera, and Gibson’s grievance is understandable, considering that Cabrera OPS’ed 1.167 in nine games against the D-Backs. If the D-Backs miss the playoffs by fewer than the four games that they lost to the Giants, Melky’s malfeasance may be recalled. Moreover, the winner of the ALCS may grumble that the National League gained home field advantage in the World Series thanks primarily to All-Star MVP Melky Cabrera’s chemically-aided heroics.

Worse, if Cabrera had waited until the end of the year to get caught, he might have won an MVP award. And, as we learned last year amid the saga of Ryan Braun’s failed test and successful appeal, those are permanent, too, which means that whoever finished in second place to Cabrera would have a legitimate beef as well: people who win MVP awards are worth more money on the open market, and MVP awards add to a player’s historical legacy as well, so they can build momentum for a Hall of Fame case.

Take, for example, Vladimir Guerrero, who’s more or less borderline, with 60 fWAR in his 16 years. He won a single MVP award in 2004, so his case would be greatly strengthened if he had one or two more. He finished fourth in 2002, when Barry Bonds won; third in 2005, when Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz finished first and second; and third again in 2007, when Alex Rodriguez won.

I have no way of asserting beyond a shadow of a doubt that Guerrero is more clean than Rodriguez, Bonds, and Ortiz. But if Guerrero won a retroactive MVP or two — like the New Zealand shot-putter who won gold a couple of days ago after the Olympics ended, when the Belarusian winner tested positive for steroids — that would make him a near-certainty for the Hall, rather than a player who will struggle to stand out against many other talented peers from the Steroid Era.

(As it happens, there’s a very good chance that Melky Cabrera will deprive Andrew McCutchen or Buster Posey of the 2012 batting title. But it also bears mentioning, as Jonah Keri writes, that it’s unclear just how much of Cabrera’s 2011-2012 spike is attributable to PED usage, as opposed to BABIP variance and so forth.)

Gibson is almost certainly right that a yearlong suspension would be an increased deterrent, and it might lessen steroid use on the margins. It would also raise the stakes if there ever were to be a false positive with the test, which Major League Baseball has long denied, but Ryan Braun’s successful appeal was predicated on just that notion. And that is why the players’ union is unlikely to sign off on any increase in suspension time.

The union is also unlikely to sign off on any increased scrutiny of players in contract years or at the beginning or end of their careers, even if they are likely to be at elevated risk for PED use. The court of public opinion will have no such scruples, however, and the suspicion of chemical enhancement that greets every great performance in a walk year, from Adrian Beltre to Gary Matthews Jr., will continue unabated. So Melky will likely need to accept a one-year contract for next year, and hope that he can kill it — like Beltre in 2010 with the Red Sox, for example — to set himself up for a major payday in 2013.

That won’t help the Giants, of course, and the damage has already been done to the Diamondbacks, not to mention home field in the World Series. The 50 game suspension hurts the Giants a lot more than it hurts Cabrera, who already did irreparable damage to his free agent value and historical legacy. If teams can pressure their players not to use, because of the damage that their absence could do to the team, then the 50 game suspension would truly be an effective deterrent. If not, then it will always pale in comparison to the money.





Alex is a writer for The Hardball Times.

178 Comments
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Pat
11 years ago

50 games for a first time offense is still not enough of a punishment for guys like Cabrera who are about to become a FA and can risk doping and not getting caught to cash out in the offseason.

Drew
11 years ago
Reply to  Pat

However, now, following the suspension and all the lazy, suspicious talk that will follow, the monetary penalty will be too steep, considering Melky took a substance that helped him sculpt his body, not play baseball better.

Richiemember
11 years ago
Reply to  Drew

ARFARFARFARF!! Drew, you so funny!

Balthazar
11 years ago
Reply to  Pat

I agree with Pat, and with Kirk Gibson, that 50 games and loss of salary is too small a penalty for first time; year minimum, with five year second ban, essentially career ending?

But the real issue was missed, both in Gibson’s remark and in the post. ‘Cheating’ is one thing. Robbing other players of perceived accomplishment is a further thing. Putting pressure on other players to abuse enhancers is a further and more important thing still. But the real issue is the Sign-and-Crash Syndrome. Player X has a way above projection fifth season, and then an off any reality plane walk year performance. X sings for multi at ten fat figures a year. Player shows up the first season and can’t hit his weight nor drive the batted ball hard enough to stun a seagull, so that his acquiring team is _cheated not only our of the performance expeted by tens of millions of dollars!_. Seriously, forge your mortgage docs, the law comes down. Dose, lie, sign, and you Cadillac all the way to the bank. It’s gross FRAUD, and teams on the buy-and-cry side are hurt big time. How many of you recall the Gone Vaughns, Mo and Greg? Most of us hafe forgotten The Incredible Shrinking Chone, but it hurts to say he’s still collecting his bi-monthly increments. And of course Beltre had a *cough* hitting problem for two years after he arrived in his new city which wasn’t just a function of the number the park did on his batting pattern (itself significant). There are waaay too many other instances of the build up to cash in trajectory. I’m for being all over the players so that franchises don’t get burned.

Given that team after team has been burned by these inflatable stat free agents, why are the penalties still so lame? Because everyone still hopes to cash in of the juiced guys if they _don’t_ get caught. It’s a cyring shame Sabean isn’t the one suspended, because he’s made much moolah looking the other way on nonbelievable performances for many, many years. Tony Larussa might have gone to Hall anyway, but he’s a lock riding in on the back of some non-naturally Herculean shoulders. The fact that most if not all orgs still hope to ride the needle for the few precious extra wins that follow is the heart of the problem.

The tests _are_ easy to circumvent. No one no way should have believed Melky Cabrera’s performance, it just reeked of juice. But to keep it up, one suspects he must have been dosing in season, not just in the offseason under masking agents. Tighter testing regimes with more randomnness, and stiffer penalties, PLEASE. I like homeruns too, but not as much as I like sports performance and dislike massive fraud and outright theft. What Melky Cabrera ‘lost’ this coming offseason _never belonged to him_, he’s not the kind of talent to have deserved the contract numbers leveraged on juiced numbers. It’s the game which has won, not the conniver who lost.

One man’s view . . . .

enhanced performance
11 years ago
Reply to  Balthazar

bravo!!!
I have been saying the same thing for months now. It is shocking to me that Melky’s cheating is what it takes for mathematical people to take their collective head’s out of the sand and start seeing the obvious.
I love the Mr. Remington’s point about Vlad Guerrero and players cheated by Bonds, Ramirez, Canseco, Clemens, McGwire, Sosa etc. I would point out that we don’t know whether or not Guerrero cheated. We do know guys like Mike Greenwell in1988 who finished second in the MVP to an admitted cheater named Jose Canseco (even if you think he did not deserve to be ahead of Puckett). I bet Greenwell would love to have an MVP award.

AL MVP awards that appear tainted starting in 1996 & 1998 Juan Gonzalez, 1999 Ivan Rodriguez (came back to spring training one year and no one recognized him), 2000 Jason Giambi, 2002 Miguel Tejada, 2003 & 2005 & 2007 Alex Roidriguez. The national league is not better when you consider Barry Bonds, Ken Caminiti and Sammy Sosa.

Thank you Mr. Remington!

Balthazar
11 years ago
Reply to  Balthazar

So Alex, I’m well aware of Dave’s view re: Beltre. You’ll also note, that I did not say ‘Beltre wasn’t worth it’ in my remarks above. Let’s be clear concerning Adrian. He was, and is, a _fantastic_ defender, as I’ve had reason to see in person and otherwise in his time in Seattle. He had several good years of road offensive production during his contract which seemed in line with his skill set and approach. He always played to the best of his ability, and he was deservedly well liked personally by just about everybody. Safeco severely hurt his offensie production in Seattle, no question. I personally disliked his rockhead approach at the plate, but regardless of that he provided considerable value during that particular contract. Whether that matrix adds up to ‘market return for salary paid’ is arguable, but yes, one can certainly argue the point.

What is also clear is that Adrian was hurt in his walk year in LA, turned in a not believable performance based on his approach and skill set (most of those 49 tates _the other way_ when he’s never done a thing like that before or since, he’s a dead pull guy?). Followed by nearly two years of far below average production which don’t seem entirely attributable to the disadvantages of Safeco (he wasn’t getting the ball out of the infield during a lot of that). And one can add that Adrian was hurt his last two years in Seattle, with lowered production attendant, so when he came to market again he had to take a one-year. And again he’s suddenly _not_ hurt, and turning in numbers far superior to anything he’d done anywhere since his last year as a Dodger, if admittedly in a very favorable offensive context for his skillset and approach. Nothing in that in any way ‘proves’ that Belre used enhancers. That said, I’d prefer MLB had an adequate testing regime in place so that I could largely dispense with the strong suspicious which frankly should linger over the performance of a player I’d generally like to like.

But my larger point isn’t anything to do with Beltre, as you’re aware, Alex. My larger point is leveraged on the likes of Chone Figgins, and Greg Vaughn, and Jayson Werth, and all their ilk. None of them have failed MLB’s terribley weak *wink-wink* testing regime either. Teams all went out and bought the fumes on these guys, and have been badly hurt by the performance collapses which followed. Some of them bounce back to a reasonable level of production for what should be expected for them (see, Beltre, Adrian). Many don’t, and it’s major money and roster configurations lost in the heist.

When players have performances in their ‘coming on the market’ seasons which surely look out of character, nobody should believe their eyes. Nothing in Melky Cabrera’s career suggested he was -at all capable_ of the numbers he was putting up, and him signing any contract based on those numbers would have been, in my view, criminal. Now yeah, when a player is injured in their ‘coming to the the market’ season, it can cost them tens of millions of dollars relative to their broadly defined level of performance. That puts tremendous pressure on a person’s ethics, no question. Not all players who use are ‘bad people’ is a point I’d accept. But I would far prefer a testing regime for substance enhancement for MLB which left far less discretion to players to screw up, or blatantly steal the dough.

It’s not a lost season from the coming off juice crash which is the real point, or the phony ‘glory year.’ I personally don’t care at all about shaming particular individuals; if the users quietly go away, I’d be just fine. It’s the fraud and the attitude that “I’m ENTITLED to that money” which is the real cancer in the game, and why we need to get this process right. Either we’re watching a sports _performance_ where individuals compete to the best of their ability, or we’re watching an entertainment _exhibition_ like pro wrestling where everything is rigged and effectively a lie. And if we don’t ensure the former, we will assuredly receive the latter.

Drew
11 years ago
Reply to  Balthazar

It’s like the view from inside a retarded toilet.

Drew
11 years ago
Reply to  Balthazar

Would you take awards/stats away from pitchers who had TJS or LASIK eye repair?

Even if roids helped Bonds hit (they didn’t, but let’s pretend they did), in my eyes he actually *lost* value when he bulked up so much because he could no longer be a top tier OF as he was in the early 90s.

The main enhancements were to the size of his body, which, in effect, actually led to him being less of a player. In an alternate universe, without HGH, he’d have the same batting numbers but even better fielding and baserunning value. He’d have 15 WAR per season.

Balthazar
11 years ago
Reply to  Pat

To summarize comments below re: what testing and penalty regime would constitute an effective _minimum_ standard to inhibit abuse of performance enhancers in baseball:

—4-6 full random test a year while a player is an unretire professional, at least two of which have to be in the offseason

—1-2 year ban for first offense, including loss of salary and no service time accrual

—5 years to lifetime ban on second offense

—team option to void all contracts for any defense

—player appeal process, requiring onus on player to demonstrate significant potential for a false positive

A regime of that kind would have a significant impact on the incentive to use enhancers. It is painfully obvious that MLB has _not_ made an effort to implement such a ban. The owners and the users are still co-dependent in ongoing fraudulent performance.

Drew
11 years ago
Reply to  Balthazar

I believe it was more a change in the league/game as a whole (parks, balls, pitching, less emphasis on running game, etc.) rather than some kind of unnatural occurrence. Bonds wRC+ in 1992 was over 200; in 2001 it was 230ish. Not drastic to me at all. Kind of a Roger Maris / George Foster kind of season.

The following seasons he didn’t hit 73 home runs. Did “the juice” wear off? When Brady Anderson hit 20 then 50 then back to 20, what happened? Did he only juice a little bit? Was it on some kind of time release?

To some extent I’m playing devil’s advocate to balance out the conventional wisdom, so I’m not trying to be dismissive or rude. And I get that an absence of evidence is not evidence of absence and all that. I just don’t think the enhancement in performance is measurable, and anything other than marginal even if it could be measured.

Nate
11 years ago
Reply to  Pat

Beyond punishment, is a 50 game suspension long enough for the “enhancing” effects of taking steroids to no longer be present? If you are trying to stop players from being enhanced, shouldn’t they have to sit at least until the effects wear off? I have no idea how long this would take but it seems like it isn’t even considered in these suspensions.

Drew
11 years ago
Reply to  Nate

A game or two would be enough.

West
11 years ago
Reply to  Pat

I preface this comment by saying I despise Sheriff Joe Arpaio and hope he gets hit by a bus, BUT his extreme penalties for DUI’s have been a success. No one in Arizona even takes the chance of driving a little buzzed because the risk is not worth the reward.

I think the MLB needs to take a similar approach. A 5 year ban for the first positive test would eliminate almost all PED use, except for players with absolutely nothing to lose.