Top Prospects of the NECBL by the Numbers

A map of the New England Collegiate Baseball League.

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With August very much here, the nation’s collegiate summer leagues — many of which have probably hosted at least one future major leaguer — are coming to an end.

Below are the players to have performed most ably in this year’s edition of the New England Collegiate League. Offensive production (represented as the totally made-up SCOUT+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average) is essentially a version of wRC+, except using the three main defense-independent inputs (home-run, walk, and strikeout rate), all regressed duly*. Pitching performance (represented by the also entirely made-up SCOUT-, where 100 is league average and below 100 represents above-average run prevention) is calculated using a version of kwERA, with regressed strikeout and walk rates as the relevant inputs.

*By the method outlined here.

The idea here is not to suggest that the following players are/were the actual best prospects from the New England Collegiate League this summer. Outlets like Baseball America and Perfect Game will certainly do a much better job of that. Rather, it’s to (a) represent as accurately and responsibly as possible the best performances of the New England Collegiate League season and to (b) acquaint ourselves with those top performers.

Here are the top hitters from this year’s New England Collegiate League, as determined by the methodology explained above. Positions are those listed by team. Click on a player’s name for his New England Collegiate League player page.

Player Team POS PA xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Danny Collins LMR 3B 181 7.4% 10.4% 16.6% 165
Mike Orefice DW 1B 184 3.4% 15.3% 15.2% 134
Jeff Melillo NG C 125 3.3% 16.7% 18.7% 130
Frankie Schwindel KSB C 147 4.4% 5.1% 8.4% 129
Mike Papi KSB IF 89 3.0% 14.9% 14.8% 128
Rob Kelly VM IF 168 4.2% 5.6% 8.9% 127
Charlie White NG OF 88 2.6% 15.0% 14.3% 125
Grant Kay KSB IF 159 5.0% 6.5% 16.4% 124
Sheehan Planas-Arteaga NSC 1B 128 1.6% 22.0% 19.6% 124
Dylan Moore KSB IF 150 2.4% 11.9% 10.0% 122

• One of Danny Collins’s (Laconia, Troy) top abilities is his one of hitting home runs. With 19 of them, he bested second-place finisher Yale Rosen (Newport, Wash. St), 11th in the NECBL with a 121 SCOUT+, by seven. His 12 home runs this past spring were the third-highest total in the Sun Belt Conference.
Mike Papi of Keene is the highest-ranking freshman on the SCOUT leaderboard. Of note also is that he played, as a freshman, at an elite baseball program this spring — namely, at Virginia, where he posted a 15:17 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 130 plate appearances. While listed as an infielder here, Papi actually played most of his games this summer — or, at least, most of the recent ones — in center field.
Dylan Moore (Keene, Cypress Community College) is another freshman and also the only player among the top-10 batting leaders to’ve played shortstop consistently.

And here are the pitchers:

Player Team IP TBF xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Alex Haines VM 40.0 150 36.0% 8.3% 60
Matt Longfield NSC 26.2 112 31.2% 9.5% 74
Brian Derner NBS 37.2 153 30.8% 9.3% 75
Pete Kelich NG 41.0 165 29.7% 8.9% 76
Ryan Horstman KSB 26.2 112 29.9% 10.4% 79
Thomas Kriss LMR 20.0 87 29.2% 9.9% 80
Brett Graves NG 26.1 111 29.2% 10.0% 80
Steven Rice SM 30.0 125 27.4% 9.1% 82
Charlie Haslup SM 15.1 57 27.2% 9.4% 83
Tyler Gauthier KSB 19.1 75 27.4% 9.8% 84

Longer, Single Note
While not as dominant as Sean Manaea in the Cape League — and probably with less in the way of pure stuff — 6-foot-4, 215-pound left-hander Alex Haines (Vermont) was decidedly the best pitcher in the NECBL this summer, posting a 54:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 40 innings over nine appearances (seven starts). He struck out 108 in just 70.0 innings as a sophomore this past spring for Seton Hill (with an -i-, not an -a-) in Pennsylvania. Any report on Haines’ velocity is surprisingly difficult to find on the internet, although, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, he threw an 84 mph fastball as a 16-year-old.

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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10 years ago

From playing against him in the NECBL this summer, Haines was consistently in the 90-92 range against us.

10 years ago

Yeah, throwing 84 as a 16 year old really isn’t all that impressive, although that’s definitely an interesting find.

Are you planning on making one of these for the Cal Ripken league? I hosted a player for the Bethesda Big Train, and saw a bunch of league games.