Melvin Upton Jr. Heads to Toronto, Continuing Preller Purge
It could be argued that, when Atlanta sent Craig Kimbrel and Melvin Upton Jr. to San Diego last April, it was neither Matt Wisler nor Jordan Paroubeck nor the draft choice they received from the Padres which represented the greatest benefit of the deal for the Braves, but rather the relief from Upton Jr.’s salary. At the time, Atlanta owed more than $45 million to Upton Jr. through the 2017 season. Getting out from under the contract made sense for a club that appeared unlikely to contend anytime soon. Upton Jr., who possessed negative trade value, was nevertheless traded.
Quite a bit has changed in the meantime, it seems. Since arriving in San Diego, Upton Jr.’s on-field performance has improved as the total remaining cost of his contract has decreased. Once a liability, Upton Jr. became a hypothetically tradeable asset — one who was actually traded today, to the Blue Jays, for right-handed prospect Hansel Rodriguez.
There is, of course, some cost to the Padres, who will pay $17 million of the $22 million still owed to Upton Jr. through next season, per Jon Heyman. But that’s not entirely surprising: the trade market currently features a great number of outfielders, something that was true last summer and carried over into the free-agent market last winter. The cost to acquire outfielders simply isn’t very high, and Toronto is benefiting from that glut.
As Jeff Sullivan noted earlier this month, Melvin Upton Jr. is back. Updating the chart Sullivan used in that piece, we can see the different Upton eras.
| Split | PA | BB% | K% | ISO | wRC+ | BsR/600 | Def/600 | WAR/600 |
| 2010 – 2012 | 1883 | 10% | 26% | .194 | 109 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 3.5 |
| 2013 – 2014 | 1028 | 10% | 32% | .116 | 66 | 1.8 | 1.7 | -0.1 |
| 2015 – 2016 | 602 | 7% | 28% | .179 | 104 | 6.1 | 1.5 | 3.1 |
Upton has recorded 21 homers while also stealing 29 bases in 37 tries. While, at 31, he’s certainly on the downside of his career, he has also provided solid value over the past year, even if it’s still fair to wonder what the future holds. Upton is still striking out an awful lot, he doesn’t draw a ton of walks, and some of his offensive resurgence is tied to his BABIP, but most of it is the reduction in strikeouts plus the power resurgence. Dividing Upton into eras like up above, except using batted-ball numbers, doesn’t show a lot of change in most areas.
| GB/FB | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | HR/FB | Pull% | Cent% | Oppo% | Soft% | Med% | Hard% | |
| 2010-2012 | 0.96 | 17.9 % | 40.3 % | 41.8 % | 9.3 % | 14.0 % | 43.7 % | 33.1 % | 23.2 % | 20.2 % | 50.5 % | 29.2 % |
| 2013-2014 | 1.17 | 18.4 % | 44.0 % | 37.6 % | 14.0 % | 9.5 % | 40.3 % | 34.8 % | 24.9 % | 17.9 % | 50.0 % | 32.1 % |
| 2015-2016 | 1.28 | 20.9 % | 44.4 % | 34.7 % | 11.5 % | 16.0 % | 39.4 % | 32.4 % | 28.2 % | 19.7 % | 46.6 % | 33.7 % |
The big difference is the power, as more of Upton’s fly balls are leaving the ballpark compared to his time in Atlanta. He hasn’t hit nearly as many infield flies, but by direction and type of contact hasn’t changed significantly. That isn’t to say that Upton isn’t better. He definitely is, and the easiest way to see that comes in his strikeout rate.
While a 28% strikeout rate still represents a high mark, even in this strikeout-heavy era, coming down from 32% is a big deal. We are making some assumptions, but consider it this way: if given 600 plate appearances, reducing strikeout rate by 4% gets you 24 addition balls in play, a .300 BABIP gets you seven or eight more hits, and in 550 at-bats, that’s an increase in batting average and on-base percentage of about 15 points. That increase compensates for the lower walk rate. Combine the lower strikeouts with the increased power and Upton changed from albatross to asset.
The projections aren’t yet buying into Upton given his disastrous time in Atlanta, giving him an 84 wRC+ in the FanGraphs Depth Charts projections. Adding a bit of offense on the basepaths and roughly average defensive value make him about a one-win player over the course of the season, which is worth more than what Toronto will be paying him. He does have some immediate upside. On a Blue Jays roster not teeming with valuable outfielders, Upton provides needed depth the rest of the season at all three outfield positions, a right-handed alternative to Michael Saunders, and a cheap option for next year as, at worst, a fourth outfielder.
As for San Diego, this is the second deal they’ve made like this so far this year. James Shields, signed by the Padres prior to 2015, was sent to the White Sox along with around $30 million to pay for a bit over half of a contract that’s over after the 2018 season. After making the mistake of trying to contend in 2015, the Padres are attempting to purge themselves of the decisions made shortly after A.J. Preller took over.
Upton’s arrival allowed the Padres to acquire Craig Kimbrel. Upton’s departure might allow Manuel Margot, the top prospect acquired from the Red Sox for Kimbrel, to receive some playing time down the stretch as the Padres attempt to usher in a new era. By trading for 18-year-old Anderson Espinoza in the Drew Pomeranz deal and spending more than $50 million on international prospects, the franchise is attempting to move forward to contention in a more sustainable avenue than they attempted a few winters ago. The prospect they acquired for Upton fits that mold.
Hansel Rodriguez is just 19 years old and still pitching in Rookie ball, but he has a big arm. Odds are not great for success, but as a flyer, the payoff is great if he even makes the majors. Dan Farnsworth wrote this before the season:
Rodriguez has a live arm but a lot of work ahead of him to turn into a pitcher, needing to develop his secondary stuff and find consistency on the mound. Pitch grades on his offspeed pitches are a shot in the dark at this point, as he’s still figuring out what works for him. An improved ability to throw strikes in the Gulf Coast League last season was a step in the right direction.
It might seem like the Padres are simply giving away an asset for little in return, especially with all the money headed toward Toronto, but Upton’s not too distant past and the poor market for outfielders hurts his value. The trade does more to tidy up San Diego’s house as they move toward the future than it does to provide new furniture. The team could have held on to Upton hoping for a better market at this time next year, but at that point, his contract would have paid him the exact same amount they’re giving to Toronto and run the risk that Upton would slide back to the stats that made him a salary dump in Atlanta.
Toronto gets a player who might contribute to a playoff run this year and next without any worries that his salary could impede an on-field decision, and San Diego moves forward. The trade didn’t have to be made by either club, but the move fit the long- and short-term goals of both clubs. Toronto is trying to get back into the playoffs in a race that could be decided by the smallest of margins, while San Diego is trying to build a club that can contend, but of which Upton was never going to be a part. This isn’t the type of trade that either team celebrates as a major win, but it certainly has the potential to help both clubs.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
Maybe it’s just me, but Melvin seems like a natural as a BJay.
I see what you did there..
Deadspin’s that way, bud
Upton is also a fallback for next year if they choose not to re-sign Bautista at whatever price the market puts on him. (Saunders is also a free agent this offseason but more likely to be coming back.)
Classifying Upton as a fallback for Bautista seems rather optimistic at best and an insult to Bautista at worst.
Upton has actually outproduced Bautista overall this year.
Upton has a lower wRC+ by 19 points, lower wOBA by around ~40 points and leads Bautista in WAR by only 0.6 wins despite having nearly 100 more PA’s.
How exactly has he outproduced Bautista?
You just said he leads Bautista in WAR by 0.6 wins.
Also, I’m not sure “only” is the right word to use when that’s 2/3 of Bautista’s WAR to date. Upton has generated more WAR even on a pure rate basis.
Also staying healthy is part of production.
You do realize that decimal point WAR is virtually meaningless? A 0.6 difference is really no difference at all. WAR is not meant to be accurate to decimal points.
Upton has had significantly more PA’s/innings yet there is really no difference between them in WAR and Bautista has been miles better at the plate. Thats a strange definition of outproducing.
So what you’re saying is that Jose Bautista is a replacement level player, because 0 WAR is no different from a 0.9 WAR. By your logic, Bautista has also failed to outproduce Anthony Gose.
I also don’t know why I have to point out that defense and baserunning matter. It’s like trying to explain to a kid that there are already three outs, get off the field already. How many stolen bases does Bautista have again?
Its not “my logic” its how WAR actually works. Minor differences in WAR are virtually meaningless. That is not what WAR was meant to do. How you are a registered user of Fangraphs and dont know how one of the most common stats in analytics works is baffling
WAR should be used as a guide for separating groups of players and not as a precise estimate. For example, a player that has been worth 6.4 WAR and a player that has been worth 6.1 WAR over the course of a season cannot be distinguished from one another using WAR. It is simply too close for this particular tool to tell them apart. WAR can tell you that these two players are likely about equal in value, but you need to dig deeper to separate them.
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/
How many stolen bases does Bautista have again?
Who cares? Stolen bases account for almost nothing in overall value. Upton’s SB’s this year have added less than 2 runs (1.8 to be exact) to his total value. Even the best base stealer in MLB will only add ~5 runs. The difference in value between a great base stealer and an average base stealer is so small its mostly irrelevant. SB’s dont matter. The tiny tiny advantage Upton may have in SB is dwarfed by Bautista being roughly 20% more valuable at the plate.
You should really spend more time reading this site and less time commenting. Because it doesnt appear you really grasp some pretty basic concepts.
Are you aware that the fact that WAR is not accurate to the decimal point does not mean that anything after the decimal point is meaningless? It simply means that WAR is not incredibly accurate and the further you go under 1 WAR, the greater the likelihood of error interfering with accuracy of measurement. Your quote is simply laughable because you’re assuming that a 0.3 WAR difference between two players in the 6 WAR region is exactly the same as a 0.6 WAR difference between two players in the sub-2 WAR region. Like I said, by your logic, there is no difference in Bautista’s value from Anthony Gose, Jeff Francouer or any other replacement-level player.
I mentioned stolen bases because you’re essentially acting like those people who use RBIs as the only criterion for evaluating a player, completely ignoring that baserunning and defense and defense are relevant.
You want to dig deeper to separate them? Bautista and Upton have generated exactly the same number of weighted runs. Since Upton has had 27% more plate appearances, Bautista would have generated about 11 more runs than Upton over the same playing time.
On the other hand, Jose Bautista has cost his team about 8 runs on defense, while Upton has saved his team about 8 runs. 16 is greater than 11, and this is without factoring in the number of runs that Bautista would likely have cost his team on defense if he played more.
@indubitably: Of course SB and defense are built into WAR, which is why Upton’s WAR is higher than Bautista’s.
Its pretty hilarious that you are arguing with Fangraphs own definition of WAR.
Just like the definition says, WAR is meant to separate players into groups of equal value. It doesn’t matter if the group is 6 WAR players or 1 WAR players. Once you are in that group your are virtually indistinguishable from other players in that group in terms of value.
Like I said, by your logic, there is no difference in Bautista’s value from Anthony Gose, Jeff Francouer or any other replacement-level player
again, this is not “my logic” that is how WAR actually works. The rules dont change just because the WAR is lower. Despite your incredulity, yes, based on WAR, Jose Bautista in 2016 largely is indistinguishable from Anthony Gose or Jeff Francour. They are all in the same WAR bracket.
You also appear to have shifted the conversation from “production” to “value” and mostly on defence (which is notoriously sketchy). You realize those two things are not the same? You originally said that Upton has “outproduced” Bautista. Now you are saying he he has been more valuable because of DRS. Ignoring for a second the whole “their WAR’s are virtually indistinguishable” part, that is a totally different argument than the original.
In 2015 Alex Gordon and Andrew McCutchen virtually had the same WAR. I doubt anyone would argue that Gordon and his 122 wRC+ “outproduced” McCutchen and his 169 wRC+ though.
Before questioning others logic you should probably take a look at your own.
You are misreading Fangraph’s definition of WAR, inventing your own out of pure imagination, and trying to hijack it. The quote you provided said very clearly:
WAR can tell you that these two players are likely about equal in value, but you need to dig deeper to separate them.
It does not say that they cannot be separated. Which I have already done for you because you are too lazy or stupid to do so.
It’s your own problem if you choose to interpret production as purely offensive. There is nothing in the word “production” or its usage that excludes defense. I’m not responsible for your mental retardedness. I already specifically said “overall” in my first comment and it’s not my problem if you cannot read.
Production = runs. Upton has been worth more runs than Bautista. Upton has been worth more runs than Bautista on a rate basis. End of story.
And if Bautista is virtually identical to Jeff Francouer, there is no insult having Upton, or Jeff Francouer, as fallback or Bautista.
SB and defence are both already built into WAR so I’m not really sure what the point of bringing them up separate is?? They are already accounted for.
I would have to agree that you don’t seem to really know what you are talking about. Which makes your condescension fairly amusing. And not in a good way.
as long as it moves smoak to the bench, nice pickup.
I’m dumbfounded by the extension. Seems like Smoak is playing even worse than before the contract was handed out to him.
He has a 139 wRC+ since the extension. Maybe you’re just biased?
Most probably. I checked and he had .745 OPS before, and now .808. I was watching yesterday’s condensed game, and twice they had RISPs and Smoak was the third out. His WPA is negative since the extension, though.
It most definitely should. Upton can play LF, Saunders DH, and EE 1B. Rotate JB to DH and Upton to RF every now and then. Smoak shouldn’t start again unless it’s to give EE a night off when he’s the DH.
Steroids. The whole league is juicing again and Melvin is one of many players as evidence.
That is certainly a compelling case you have presented. I am convinced.
I understand that it’s hard to give ballplayers and mlb the benefit of the doubt at this point.
I don’t think it’s entirely accurate to call Preller’s 2015 “trying to contend”. Sure it was sold to the fans and media as that but I think it was mostly to bring talent into a fairly barren team. The true goal of those moves was to accelerate rebuilding of the pipeline at the expense of a lot of money. The jury is still out on how effective this will be but as a Padre fan it’s nice to see the team spend money to eventually put a better product on the field.
Seriously. He’s pretty dramatically overhauled the Padres core over the past 2 years, while putting asses in the seats, for what amounts to Trea Turner and Matt Kemp’s contract.
Preller gave up a lot more in those trades than just Turner and taking on most of Kemp’s contract. He also gave up Joe Ross and Yasmani Grandal in those deals, to name two. And Matt Wisler is still only 23.
Good call on Joe Ross, but that’s how much Wil Myers costs.
Wisler, though, has sucked for 3 years at this point. I don’t think the Padres would have taken him back for Upton straight up, if offered.
Grandal’s an interesting case, because he’s an asshole who gets in fights with teammates, and is bad at throwing and blocking baseballs, but has nice framing stats. They may have sold low on him, because they had Hedges coming up and didn’t want to deal with Grandal’s shit.
This, to me, makes a ton of sense. When I saw the return he got for Pomeranz, I thought back to 2015 and said to myself, “When did the padres GM get so good”, and I even wondered if they’d fired GM’s between then. When looking at it this way, it makes way more sense. I’m impressed. He signed a bunch of guys, traded for big names like Kemp and Kimbrel, and then sold them all off a year later and got great value.
I think he realized that doing it just through the draft would take too long, so he brought in a bunch of pieces and one by one started selling them off for more than he got them for.
As a dodgers fan, i kind of hate to say it, but that’s brilliant work. I think in a few years, the Padres will be competing with the Dodgers for the division. I’m not really sure how much longer the Giants will be competing. Posey and Bumgarner will still be young, but a lot of the rest of their roster will be on the wrong side of 30.
There is no way to justify the Kemp deal. None.
Star power? Plus he’s really good looking!
Actually, though. The Padres have enjoyed their highest attendance since 2007 over the past two years, and it’s been over 10% higher than any year since 2009. Kemp’s star power is definitely part of that.
Posey is actually right at the average age of the Giants, 29. And right before next season, he will be on the wrong side of 30.
“He signed a bunch of guys, traded for big names like Kemp and Kimbrel, and then sold them all off a year later and got great value. ”
Except he didn’t flip a single player for positive net value.
I don’t really think Saunders needs a platoon. He has hit better vs lefties this year, and on his career he is about the same. With that said, it can’t hurt to have Upton.
Agree – all of the Jays’ big boppers have little in the way of platoon splits this year. In fact, as you noted, Saunders has actually been their 2nd best bat against lefties this year. I think Melvin is really more about getting guys a day off here and there (the Jays’ position players are 3rd oldest in MLB) and especially giving Bautista and his foot problems a couple days a week at DH.
I would say he can spot Pillar on days they face a tough righty since he’s a better bat, but Upton has pretty similar numbers to Pillar against righties this year. It’s really against lefties that Upton is markedly better than Pillar so maybe Melvin spots Pillar against lefties. I figure he spots Saunders or Pillar 1 day a week and then Bautista 2 days a week and gets 3-4 days per week overall. without looking a little closer, he might now be the best 4th OF and gives the Jays great insurance at a cheap price should any of their OF go down with an injury.
Melvin in Atlanta was a terrible perfect storm. The hitting strategy Greg Walker preached to everyone, regardless of their skills, (swing at everything, pull everything, hit everything in the air, you can’t hit a home run with the bat on your shoulder) was the worst possible strategy for a player with BJ’s skillset. I don’t know if these were bad habits to which Upton was already prone in Tampa Bay (though I suspect they probably were), but he bought into it, and it was disastrous.
Is this just a caricature of Walker? I am glad to see someone address this because the Atlanta year’s are remarkably inconsistent with the rest of Upton’s career.
It’s mildly hyperbolic, but not nearly to the point of caricature. That was, in a nutshell, the strategy he taught. A lot of guys suffered with it (in Atlanta and Chicago), but Melvin is likely in a close race with Adam Dunn for guy who struggled the most under him. Go take a look at the one and only year Dunn played under Walker. It’s not hard to spot.
I think its pretty cool that he is up in Canada and literally just walks across to the other baseline and plays for the other team. It’s like when you are in little league and only guys show up from your team and the other team gives you a player.
Upton’s case was a bit different. Because he was moving to a team located outside the US he had to go to Buffalo before last nights game to get a work visa. Not sure if its the first time this has happened for a player changing teams who are playing each other
Hard to believe that he’s essentially back to being himself after two lost years in Atlanta. If Upton was a replacement-level player at the very least, the 2013 Braves would’ve been a 100 win team.
He’s not. It’s all BABIP. Career low walk rate + career high K rate +juiced ball + BIP luck = perceived resurgence.
“There is, of course, some cost to the Padres,”
Understatement of the year. He was basically offered with a $17M dowry, That’s how bad the original signing was by Atl and the subsequent trade by SD,