Mets Add Fifth Starter in Minor Swap

Being Mets-y has been an insult for years, a description of a team combining bad execution and bad luck to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. It’s the kind of thing that describes poor decisions but also poor circumstances. Kodai Senga spraining his calf in his first game all year and missing the remainder of the season? That’s Mets-y. Trading a huge haul to replace him and then getting nothing from the big name replacement? That’d be Mets-y too, but things have changed in Queens. Instead of splashing out prospects for Yusei Kikuchi or going after a toolsy young arm, as the Orioles did for Trevor Rogers, the Mets are doing the MLB equivalent of shopping at Costco. They acquired Paul Blackburn from the A’s in exchange for Kade Morris, their 17th-best prospect, as Will Sammon reported.

Blackburn is definitely not a name you’d put on a marquee. He’s pitched to a 4.83 ERA and 4.36 FIP in his major league career. You know how Yu Darvish is so fun because he throws seven pitches and they’re all above average? Blackburn is like that – only all of his pitches are below average. He has six different options, but our stuff models think that only his slider and cutter are even decent. He makes up for that lack of raw juice with command and with the willingness to throw any pitch in any count.

That sounds mean, but I promise it’s not. Guys like Blackburn are the glue that holds major league rotations together. In the past three years, he’s been a valuable contributor when healthy, racking up 266 innings of league average work. That’s awesome; 26 or so teams would love to have him as either a swingman or a fifth starter. He’s missed time with two different finger injuries and also with a metatarsal stress reaction – translation: a hurt foot. That’s not a huge problem, if I’m being honest; given that he’s mostly around for depth, a few missed turns every year is reasonable so long as he doesn’t miss an extended period of time. Starting rotations are more of an ensemble than a five-man group these days, and Blackburn is a capable part-time contributor.

Blackburn has only made a single start since returning from that foot injury, and it was a poor one; he gave up two homers in five innings against the Angels en route to surrendering four earned runs with only two strikeouts. But you’re going to get those clunkers from time to time with Blackburn. In exchange, you’ll also get games like his penultimate start before his injury: seven innings, three strikeouts, and a solo homer as the only run allowed. He’s a fifth starter, so you’re going to have to take some up with some down.

That will work just fine for the Mets, who have three guys they like at the top of their rotation even with Senga out until at least the playoffs. Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana are locked in as above average options. New York’s problem has been after them; Tylor Megill has struggled in the rotation this year, José Buttó looks better as a reliever, and David Peterson is probably no better than a fourth option, if he’s even that. To make matters worse, the bullpen has been no great shakes either, so any starter the team can push to the bullpen will be valuable there as well.

If you don’t need a starter who can pitch in the playoffs, Blackburn is a perfect addition. He solves a lot of the team’s problems to an acceptable degree, which is a great fit for the Mets’ budget-conscious deadline shopping. This doesn’t feel like the year to go all out to maximize the current team; it’s more about scooping an unexpected Wild Card slot if possible while keeping things in place for 2025 and beyond. Blackburn fills an immediate need, and he’ll even be around next year for rotation depth. He almost certainly won’t be the most impactful pitcher traded today, and he won’t have to be.

To get that kind of unexciting competence, the Mets gave up an interesting but volatile pitcher. Kade Morris was a third-round pick last year, and he’s climbing the minor league ranks slowly this season, most recently performing well in High-A. He throws four average pitches, with the highlight probably being a low-slot fastball that tops out above 96 mph. We projected him with plenty of relief risk coming into the year, but he’s throwing more strikes in 2024 than he did in college, which gives the prospect team hope that he’ll develop into a back-end starter or swingman with time. That’s a 40 FV, if you’re keeping score at home, and we have him down as the no. 18 prospect in the A’s org. If things go really well, we might be looking at a future Paul Blackburn, in other words.

By trading Blackburn for Morris, the A’s are essentially saying that they didn’t think that a strong market for Blackburn would ever develop, even if they’d held onto him until the offseason. I think they’re right: Increasingly, teams are targeting potentially elite talent in trades. No one wants a fifth starter or a rotation corner outfielder; the big trade returns come from dealing someone with splashy tools or dominant performance, and preferably both.

But when the league goes high (impact), you should go low (cost). A theme among trades I’ve liked for buyers this deadline is looking for average contributors to replace weakness rather than trying to improve an average position into a strength. (I’ve also liked trading with the White Sox as a theme, but that one’s harder to replicate.) The Mariners’ getting Justin Turner for a song is the hitting version of this trade, and I liked that one too. There’s nothing exciting about Blackburn. If everything goes as planned, he’s going to put up a four-handle ERA with a 20% strikeout rate. But teams need players like him to succeed, and for whatever reason, they’ve been available for very little this deadline. I love that the Mets took what the market gave them rather than trying to force the issue with a bigger trade – even if it’s not very Mets-y.