Milwaukee Brewers Top 36 Prospects
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Milwaukee Brewers. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as our own observations. This is the second year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers.
A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.
All of the numbered prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here.
| Rk | Name | Age | Highest Level | Position | ETA | FV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Ashby | 23.6 | MLB | MIRP | 2022 | 50 |
| 2 | Joey Wiemer | 22.9 | A+ | RF | 2024 | 50 |
| 3 | Sal Frelick | 21.2 | A+ | CF | 2025 | 45+ |
| 4 | Garrett Mitchell | 23.3 | AA | CF | 2022 | 45+ |
| 5 | Brice Turang | 22.1 | AAA | SS | 2023 | 45 |
| 6 | Ethan Small | 24.9 | AAA | SP | 2021 | 45 |
| 7 | Jeferson Quero | 19.2 | R | C | 2024 | 45 |
| 8 | Jackson Chourio | 17.8 | R | CF | 2025 | 45 |
| 9 | Felix Valerio | 21.0 | A+ | 2B | 2023 | 45 |
| 10 | Tyler Black | 21.0 | A | 2B | 2025 | 40+ |
| 11 | Freddy Zamora | 23.2 | A+ | SS | 2024 | 40+ |
| 12 | Abner Uribe | 21.5 | A | SIRP | 2023 | 40+ |
| 13 | Hedbert Perez | 18.7 | A | LF | 2024 | 40+ |
| 14 | Antoine Kelly | 22.1 | A+ | SIRP | 2023 | 40+ |
| 15 | Max Lazar | 22.6 | A | MIRP | 2022 | 40+ |
| 16 | Eduardo Garcia | 19.5 | A | SS | 2024 | 40+ |
| 17 | Joe Gray Jr. | 21.8 | A+ | RF | 2023 | 40 |
| 18 | Dylan File | 25.6 | AAA | SP | 2022 | 40 |
| 19 | Korry Howell | 23.3 | AA | CF | 2022 | 40 |
| 20 | Taylor Floyd | 24.1 | AA | SIRP | 2023 | 40 |
| 21 | Carlos Rodriguez | 21.1 | A+ | LF | 2022 | 40 |
| 22 | Hendry Mendez | 18.1 | R | CF | 2025 | 40 |
| 23 | Zavier Warren | 23.0 | A+ | 3B | 2024 | 40 |
| 24 | Russell Smith | 22.8 | R | SIRP | 2025 | 40 |
| 25 | Alec Bettinger | 26.5 | MLB | SP | 2022 | 35+ |
| 26 | Brett Sullivan | 27.9 | AAA | C | 2022 | 35+ |
| 27 | Mario Feliciano | 23.1 | MLB | C | 2022 | 35+ |
| 28 | Justin Topa | 30.8 | MLB | SIRP | 2022 | 35+ |
| 29 | Hayden Cantrelle | 23.1 | AA | 2B | 2024 | 35+ |
| 30 | Victor Castaneda | 23.3 | AAA | MIRP | 2022 | 35+ |
| 31 | Eduarqui Fernandez | 20.1 | R | RF | 2023 | 35+ |
| 32 | Nick Bennett | 24.3 | AA | MIRP | 2023 | 35+ |
| 33 | David Fry | 26.1 | AAA | C | 2022 | 35+ |
| 34 | Hobie Harris | 28.5 | AAA | SIRP | 2021 | 35+ |
| 35 | Cam Robinson | 22.3 | AA | SIRP | 2022 | 35+ |
| 36 | Clayton Andrews | 25.0 | AAA | SIRP | 2021 | 35+ |
Other Prospects of Note
Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.
Corner Power Bats
Ernesto Martinez, 1B
Weston Wilson, UTIL
Thomas Dillard, DH
Tristen Lutz, OF
Martinez, a 22-year-old Cuban player, has an elite baseball frame and incredible bat speed, but his swing path is barely usable and has been for a while. Wilson, 27, plays everywhere except catcher and center field, and has posted above-average batting lines throughout his minor league career, so he’ll likely get a four-corners cup of coffee with someone else eventually; Keston Hiura and Mike Brosseau are jammed in front of him on the depth chart right now. Dillard and Lutz both have plus power, but don’t have the hit tools to support where they fall on the defensive spectrum.
Older Arms and Indy Ball Finds
Peter Strzelecki, RHP
Jason Alexander, RHP
Andy Otero, LHP
Noah Zavolas, RHP
Kent Hasler, RHP
Zach Vennaro, RHP
Strzelecki, 27, spent a year at a JUCO and another one injured as an amateur, only entering pro ball at age 23. He’s had good peripherals for most of his career and dominated Triple-A in 2021 (47 innings, 65 strikeouts) largely due to deception and fastball carry. He and Jason Alexander have the best control of this group. Alexander, 28, is a minor league NRI signee who transferred several times as an amateur and missed a year with TJ. He didn’t end up in pro ball until age 24, but he has a good sinker/changeup combination and had been upper-level rotation depth for the Marlins. Otero, 29, has 30-grade velo but a snapdragon curveball and viable changeup. He’d probably make a fine four to five inning spot start if called upon. The same is true of the 25-year-old Zavolas, a kitchen sink righty with plus breaking ball spin rates among his bevy of offerings. He has struck out a batter per inning throughout his career and came via Seattle as part of the Domingo Santana/Ben Gamel swap. Vennaro, 25, was signed out of the Can-Am League. He sits 95, can sink it or ride it, and has an average slider. That was enough for him to miss about a bat per inning at Double-A. Hasler, 26, was signed out of the Frontier League. He sits about 91-92 with riding movement and throws his mid-80s slider about 60% of the time.
Youngins
Alexander Cornielle, RHP
Jheremy Vargas, SS
Edwin Jimenez, RHP
Jesus Chirinos, C
Jolon Zhao, RHP
Logan Henderson, RHP
Carlos Rodriguez, RHP
Cornielle’s slider has plus-plus movement and he got a late look in Low-A at age 20, but his delivery relief-only implications. Vargas, 18, has a skills-over-tools utility look. Jimenez, 20, has a prototypical pitcher’s frame and already sits about 90-92 with vanilla secondary stuff, though he mixes pitches in a mature way. Chirinos, another 20-year-old Venezuelan, is a maxed-out catcher who posted among the highest top-end exit velos in this system at a whopping 112 mph. The track record for guys who’ve spent four years in rookie ball — which Chirinos has if you count a lost 2020 — is not encouraging, though. Zhao was a sleeper as a teenager due to his low-90s arm strength and elite breaking ball spin. He returned from TJ this year and was very rusty, but is still worth monitoring because of his background (he’s from China) and the reps lost due to injury/the pandemic. Henderson, a 2021 fourth round JUCO arm, has a plus changeup, while Rodriguez, a sixth round JUCO arm, is a plus on-mound athlete with big time arm speed. He’s wild, but has more upside than Henderson.
Bench Types
Gabe Holt, UTIL
Corey Ray, CF
Zack Raabe, 2b
Holt has great feel for contact and could be a low-impact 2B/3B bench sort. Ray, who was arguably the top draft prospect in his class, has premium physical tools except for a 20-grade bat. Raabe had spurts of strong performance in college at Minnesota but never hit for power in wood bat leagues. He was the club’s 2021 eighth rounder.
System Overview
Some of this is due to the process by which we tend to arrive at our rankings, but the Brewers have clearly made a concerted effort to build via hit-tool oriented up-the-middle players; eight of their top 11 prospects are either middle infielders or center fielders. When the Brewers deviate from an up-the-middle approach, they’ve tended to target hitters with one premium tool, typically measurable raw power.
Their acquisition of pitchers has been less traditional, and they’re perhaps the best club in the game at plucking interesting pitchers from independent ball, including Jake Cousins, who should have been on last year’s list. Many of their pitching prospects have extreme release points or pitch characteristics that are unique in some way, which has been true for most of the David Stearns era. The group is a little thin at present and the Brewers probably need more pitching depth than they currently have to sufficiently navigate the injuries that typically befall a big league staff.
Milwaukee was one of a number of teams that seemed less inclined to protect their fringe 40-man prospects ahead of the deadline. I mentioned missing data in Joey Wiemer’s blurb. I sourced some specific TrackMan data across the entire minors at the end of the season, and most of the Brewers’ A-ball hitters are missing from it. When I checked with a source from a different org on some of those names, they were experiencing a similar issue. It’s a glimpse into how haphazard the data-sharing aspects of ops seem to be, if nothing else.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Low velo guys everywhere! Is this by design?
They love guys with deceptive deliveries and flat approach angles. That said, what stands out to me isn’t the number of low velo guys, it’s the lack of pitchers who have any shot of starting someday. Small probably will, Ashby might in a couple of years once he masters the 3-inning relief role that the Brewers use to break in pitching prospects. Russell Smith, maybe. After that you’ve got a bunch of guys who might be 6th or 7th starters if they pan out like Bettinger, File, etc. Aaaand that’s it. Good thing this team more or less has the current rotation figured out!
Valerio sounds like the kind of guy who would be a lock to show up on one of Cistulli’s lists
Saw him play at couple times last summer in what we used know as the Carolina League, and he looked like the best all around player on the field to me.
This is better than I expected. Still not good, but it’s okay. Probably around 20 in terms of systems, maybe 25 if you’re feeling pessimistic. I’m pretty high on all the guys who are 45 and up and pretty down on all the guys who are below that. Not a deep system at all. The one guy I think might have more left in him below the 45 level is Joe Gray. I think most likely he’s a 4th outfielder but he’s got enough tools that he has a chance for more.
The concerns about Frelick’s and Mitchell’s offense are overblown because there’s a clear shortage of players who can legitimately play center field right now. How many no-doubt center fielders are going to have 50s or higher on them when this is all done? Corbin Carroll, Josh Lowe, Luis Matos, Jasson Dominguez, and Zac Veen? Colton Cowser if you’re bullish on the instincts in CF. That’s a pretty small list. (Guys like Andy Pages, Robert Hassell, Austin Martin, and Brennen Davis are very likely 50s or better but they’re tweeners). I guess Kevin Alcanatra too but I’m not convinced, and Pache will potentially get a 50 but I don’t understand anyone who thinks he’s going to hit at all.
I agree that Wiemer looks like a really good prospect. He’ll probably just be good enough to get by, and with some Justin Upton-ish upside on offense (I don’t really think that regularly running wRC+’s in the 125-135 range is a likely outcome, but it is theoretically possible).
I’d quibble with your list (I’d add Alek Thomas, who may not be plus there but where everything suggests will be able to play a decent CF, and would subtract Jasson who is just too far off to know whether he’s bound for a corner). But the point is a good one.
Not sure what the stuff is like, but Indy Ball signee James Meeker was a fun box score follow after signing with the Brewers last summer.
Put up 39 IP | 0 ER | 13 BB | 55 K from 2020-21 in the wilderness followed by 18 IP | 1 ER | 5 BB | 22 K with the Brewers.
Granted, he was a 26 year old in A ball, but could be in line to move up quickly this year if he keeps notching zeroes.
I watched Meeker pitch a couple of times last season. He mixed a sinker, slider, curve and I thought I saw a changeup or two, but they might’ve been breaking balls that backed up on him. He showed really good command in every quadrant. FB around 91-93 up to 95 that I saw. Slider upper 80s (looked like a cutter at times), curve 82-84. He was a fun watch. One of the outings I saw was his 5 K’s in 1.1 IP outing. So that may have caused some bias on my end. But I was a little surprised not to see him in the Indy ball section as well.
5Ks in 1.1 innings?
Thanks sm9. I Remember the 5K in 1.1 IP outing from following the boxes. One of the Ks reached 1st on a passed ball.
Based on the grades, the system seems well below average. Don’t get the headline
While mitchell will never get to the raw power he has without a big swing change i think he should get a high end 50. He has premium obp skills and will stick in center, that is enough. Imo this farm is around 25ish
Also, 8 Homers in 61 starts projects to 20HRs in 150 starts. So he is listed with 60 raw and 30 game power, but he got to a little more juice last year, arguably a notch or two above 30. He also projected to have 41 steals and 112 walks over 150 games, so his results mighty be better than they look at first glance as well.
So far
CHC: 271.5 (imo lot of generous 50s and 40+ given out)
Mil: 137
Oak: 105
LAA: 79
To put into perspective here is where these systems would rank based on the 2021 preseason list
CHC: 11th
Mil: 25th
Oak: 29th
LAA: 29th
Oakland and LA both 29th despite one being at $105 million and the other at $79 million? Or a typo?
Probably there was a really big gap near the end of the list last year.
Last year washington was in last at 63, Colorado was 2nd to last at 109
Got it! I assumed you were looking at all 4 teams simultaneously rather than individually which is why I was confused.
Just noticed that the article says the Top 36 Prospects but the URL says the Top 37 Prospects. Did someone get dropped at the last minute?
I was looking at this system the other day thinking that although poor, the top 6 prospects complement the team’s immediate needs very well:
Ashby currently in the bullpen, Turang profiling as a lefty utility glove to compliment their RHB left-side of the infield, Weimer/Mitchell/Frelick in A+/AA to replace Cain/platoon with Renfroe next year or later this year, and Small as a back-end type to buttress against injuries.
That being said, I feel Eric underplayed the extreme lack of SP depth. It’s terrifying and made me realize how badly they need to extend another arm besides Peralta.
Obviously health is the wild card in all this but Burnes, Woodruff, Houser & Lauer are all under control through 2024, I believe 2025 is Peralta’s last option year & Ashby/Small are still under one year service time.
While the drop off from there is precipitous, that’s a pretty solid seven SPs with a good mix of talent & team control.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see them going pitching heavy this draft after focusing more on position players the last couple years.
They definitely need some more hitting though
The dropoff of Yelich after 2019 definitley hurt them
If Mitchell lands anywhere near Grisham or Nimmo that’s a pretty valuable player and certainly well above what could be considered a “role player”
Wiemer’s arm isn’t mentioned in the discussion, though graded at 70, and he threw a guy out at third from deep right field during an AFL game. It was impressive.
JC Mejia just graduated by 2 1/3 innings. Would he still have been a 35+? I’m intrigued by his slider. .138 xBA / .283 xSLG / .268 xwOBA on the pitch, with a 41.7% whiff rate.
I enjoy reading these every year–they’re the primary reason I subscribe. However, there always seem to be discrepancies within the writeups. For instance, Ethan Small’s writeup says he has a below-average slider, but his list of pitches does not mention a slider. Also, does he sit 91-92, or 91-94? I don’t want this to sound like nitpicking, but I know that two ticks on a fastball is important.
Can anyone shed light on why the discrepancies and when in doubt what information I should rely on? Thanks!
I’ve always wondered the percentage of each FV group to have decent careers (5 or 10 years) in the majors. I know this differs by team, but it’s still something good to know. Anyone help here?
It’s probably like the much-referenced “future total career WAR” list: when you ask where to find it, the response from the writer will be, “on my hard drive LOL”.
Search for a Fangraphs article by Craig Edwards titled An Update to Prospect Valuation (November 12, 2018). There’s a table called Valuing Top-100 Prospects. The table shows the “Bust Rate” for FV 50-70, separated out by pitchers and position players (Bust Rate is less than 1 career WAR). Doesn’t go below FV50 but even at that level the Bust Rate is over 50% for both pitchers and position players. So for FV 45 and 40, you’re probably looking at Bust Rates around 75-90%.
interesting. I wonder if this means one should look at most 50’s as 45’s, ect? Although, if they fail to get 1 WAR, those 50’s aren’t even 45’s either haha
Not sure if this is the place to bring this up, but I hope to get the attention of Eric, or other FG staff.
I want to point out that the MIL prospects haven’t been added to the 2022 BOARD yet. The other org reports hit the board right away.
Good catch! Should be remedied shortly – thanks for the note!
I had the misfortune of catching Small’s worst start of the year in Nashville in September. His control was downright awful that day. Perhaps a fluky result of fatigue, but his 4.9 BB/9 over 77 IP indicates a shortcoming one cannot abide in a soft tossing starter.
Small maybe be nearly 25 years old, but he needs more cooking IMO. I would advise against the Crew counting on him as their #6 SP in 2022.
Pipe dream: Lindblom rediscovers passability.
Lindblom pitched really well, by the numbers, for the last two three months in AAA. It was somewhat surprising how he was “left for dead” basically. then again, the Brews big league staff was loaded
June through end of season for Nashville: 100.1 IP, 21 ER, 3.23 ERA 113Ks 23 BBs