Mock Draft 3.0: The Morning Of

Today is Day One of the draft, so here’s another mock. We may have another mock just before the first round kicks off that is just names with teams. The spice was really flowing yesterday afternoon, as teams have been in meetings for at least a few days and have moved on to gathering intel themselves after lining up their boards. Full scouting reports and draft rankings can be found over on The Board.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA)

The overwhelming majority of our sources believe the Pirates are taking Mayer, but it’s quite possible that not even the Pirates themselves are going to be sure until minutes before the draft. We’re not hearing Jordan Lawlar here anymore and haven’t heard either of the Vandy arms for a while, so this is likely going to come down to how negotiations go between the Pirates and the camps of Mayer and, probably, Henry Davis.

2. Texas Rangers
Pick: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt

The strongest names in this mix are Leiter and Kahlil Watson; it sounds like Jordan Lawlar is not in the mix here. Rumors still abound that both the Red Sox and Leiter’s agent and family trying to steer him to Boston at four, but teams picking in the single digits don’t think they’re going to be able to pull it off. The Rangers like Mayer and Kahlil Watson plenty, and sources indicate they have had some Leiter vs. Kumar Rocker discussions in the room. Leiter could be in the Texas rotation by 2023 to help kick-start their re-emergence in the American League West. This is more of an educated guess that Texas will call Leiter’s name and dare him to turn down close to $8 million.

3. Detroit Tigers
Pick: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (OK)

We think Detroit would love for Mayer to fall, but their realistic mix is Brady House, Jackson Jobe, and Jack Leiter if he’s here. The Tigers had a lot of heat in to see the Vanderbilt arms late, but Leiter is the only one getting mentioned here. Our most recent intel suggests they will look to cut an under-slot deal with Jobe, who comes with all of the risks associated with high school arms but also arguably has the best pure stuff in the draft.

4. Boston Red Sox
Pick: Henry Davis, C, Louisville

Two-thirds of our sources don’t think Leiter’s gambit to fall here will work, as he is just too damn good to drop this far. The Red Sox had a recent workout with Henry Davis and Brady House in attendance, but teams picking behind Boston think Leiter is the priority with Davis as the backup plan. The Harry Ford under-slot rumors here might just be a backup plan if somehow Leiter and Davis come off before this pick.

5. Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS (NC)

The two of us disagree about who to mock here. Eric still wants to gut feel mock Colten Cowser to Baltimore since his situation (though not skillset) is similar to Heston Kjerstad’s last year: he’s a high probability big leaguer who is best appreciated by data-driven teams and likely presents a huge haircut at this pick. Cowser and Sal Frelick have been the two players most frequently attached to Baltimore in the scenario in which they cut, but a new name was passed around as a rumor on Saturday: Matt McLain. With all of that said, the Orioles have heavily scouted the prep shortstop class and would strongly consider Kahlil Watson and Jordan Lawlar here. Lawlar’s age works against him in a model-heavy organization like Baltimore, but Watson’s massive tools could force Baltimore to just play the board and steer away from doing anything overly crafty.

6. Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep HS (TX)

Talk that Lawlar may be heading to Vanderbilt permeated the industry yesterday. It could just be posturing, but we do think there’s a point where he becomes a nearly impossible sign, and his age means he’d be a draft-eligible sophomore in a couple of years. The Diamondbacks mix here is likely to be whatever high school shortstops are left (though purportedly not Brady House), with Kumar Rocker and an under-slot college bat (Cowser is the favorite) as potential options, as well.

7. Kansas City Royals
Pick: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt

The Royals have considerable interest in Kahlil Watson and Brady House, but Kumar Rocker is just too good of a value pick here for a club that has a history of favoring college arms who present good value.

8. Colorado Rockies
Pick: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS (GA)

The Rockies seem to be focused on bats with the usual prep shortstop suspects as well has Colton Cowser, who has a wild range of draft possibilities and could go anywhere between five and 15. House’s power would play wonderfully in Colorado and he’s extremely athletic for his size. This is his likely floor, as he’s being discussed anywhere from three to eight.

9. Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Will Taylor, SS, Dutch Fork HS (SC)

The Angels have been attached to players of all shapes and sizes this spring, but late murmurs have them paying the freight on Taylor, who has reportedly thrown out a $4 million-plus asking price in order to forego a college football career at Clemson. Most see him as more of a mid-to-late first-round talent, but the opportunity to save somewhere around $1 million dollars in pool money to re-distribute elsewhere adds to the appeal for the Halos. If any of the names that we have coming off ahead of the Angels are still here, then they’d have to consider taking them rather than Taylor.

10. New York Mets
Pick: Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge HS (IN)

Sal Frelick and Montgomery are the strongest names in the mix here, with Matt McLain and Ty Madden also in orbit. Over the weekend, multiple sources had them ready to make a reach for Montgomery, who many see as more of a late first-round talent. He’s a big, athletic future third baseman with plus raw power out of a viscerally attractive left-handed swing.

11. Washington Nationals
Pick: Ty Madden, RHP, Texas

The Nats are mostly attached to college player and have a penchant to college arms. This might be Madden’s ceiling, and there are many teams doing late homework on the Texas right-hander, believing that he might still be on the board in the late teens. It’s a classic starter package with plus stuff and while it’s hard to find an obvious home for him, at some point Madden’s stuff is just too attractive a combination to pass up. We also considered mocking Gunnar Hoglund here based on Washington’s remarkably successful history of drafting and rehabbing Tommy John guys (Jesús Luzardo, etc.).

12. Seattle Mariners
Pick: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA

The Mariners are consistently attached to the mid-tier college bats in McLain, Sal Frelick and Colton Cowser. McLain is perhaps the preference here because the Mariners have so many great young outfielders.

13. Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Benny Montgomery, CF, Red Land’s HS (PA)

Maybe it’s just a case of convenient geography, but the Phillies have been attached to Montgomery much of the spring, and this is around where his talent merits.

14. San Francisco Giants
Pick: Colton Cowser, CF, Sam Houston State

The Giants will likely be jumping for joy should Cowser still be available to them with this pick. Some models used by teams have Cowser just a tick behind Davis in terms of offensive ceiling, he just didn’t play in a big conference. The Giants are also believed to be interested in the group of college arms expected to go in the teens, and there’s one, somewhat wild rumor that has them kicking the tires on two-sport prep star Bubba Chandler.

15. Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss

The Brewers have been focused on college arms, especially Hoglund and, less strongly, Kasnas State left-hander Jordan Wicks. Hoglund could go anywhere in the 11-20 range, depending on how teams view his medical following recent Tommy John surgery. Prior to the elbow going pop, he was seen as going somewhere between five and 10, so this really isn’t much of a fall for him. If they’re not thrilled will the remaining college arms, the Brewers could downshift to a cost-savings strategy that revolves around some of the high-performing college bats, beginning with Wright State infielder Tyler Black. The Black rumor was passed around a lot on Saturday. That would be for under-slot, but there’s lots of action on Black between here and the mid-20s.

16. Miami Marlins
Pick: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College

There doesn’t seem to be any particular player family that the Marlins are focusing on, as they’re simply in best-player-available mode. They’ve been attached to college pitching (and would love to see Ty Madden fall to them) and high school pitching (Andrew Painter early in the spring), as well as the upper tier of the high school outfield crop. Sal Frelick can play center field, makes a ton of contact and could reach the top of the big league lineup quickly, as the Marlins don’t think they are very far from being dangerous.

17. Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Bubba Chandler, SS/RHP, North Oconee HS (GA)

With multiple picks, the Reds have financial flexibility, and they are probably the team best suited to prevent Chandler from attempting to be next star quarterback at Clemson. Their focus seems to be on high school bats, and they would be very tempted by Benny Montgomery if he was still available.

18. St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: Trey Sweeney, SS Eastern Illinois

The Cardinals have mostly been rumored with the high school tools types, in particular highly-athletic prep catcher Harry Ford, but recent talk has them looking closely at Sweeney, a small-school college infielder with crazy numbers (1.234 OPS this spring) and the kind of power, patience and contact skills that make statistical models squeal with delight.

19. Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State

Most teams think the Blue Jays will try to cut an under-slot deal here. We might have gotten a bit too excited at news of a private workout with Jay Allen, as rumors around Toronto remain wildly varied, and like the Cardinals, they’ve also been looking closely at Trey Sweeney. Off the board in this scenario, Wicks is too good a pitcher to drop out of the teens. Because the Jays lack a second rounder, they can’t really mess around with tough-to-sign players here.

20. New York Yankees
Pick: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS (GA)

This would be the floor for Hoglund, and the Yankees would also have interest in Will Bednar, who is rumored to have a $3 million price tag, which in terms of strict slot adherence, would end at 22. Ford is one of the best athletes in the draft but teams are mixed as to his ability to catch, with some saying they’d just scrap it immediately and send him out in center field. Connecticut lefty Frank Mozzicato is also an option here and basically every pick after this.

21. Chicago Cubs
Pick: Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State

Most Cubs rumors revolve around high school players, including high school lefty Anthony Solometo, who reportedly wowed the team in a private workout, as well as the top high school catchers in Harry Ford and Joe Mack. Bednar made a slow and steady climb on draft boards this spring, and then rocketed up them during the college postseason, thanks to one of the better sliders in the draft.

22. Chicago White Sox
Pick: Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East (NY)

We don’t have enough room to list the high school position players the White Sox are considering with this pick. If there is a prep bat rumored to go anywhere from 20-50 on Sunday, he’s likely somewhere in their mix. They would love for Colson Montgomery to still be on the board for them, but that seems unlikely at this point. Teams think Jay Allen will come off the board sooner than we have him mocked here and he’s a player type fit with Chicago, but we have no hard intel connecting Allen and the Sox. Scouts vary wildly in their power projection for Mack, ranging from fringy to plus, but he’s a real catcher with a plus arm, and evaluators have more of a consensus in their praise for his hit tool. Chicago’s scouting director saw Michael McGreevy’s last outing for UC Santa Barbara, so maybe he fits here, but it wasn’t a great look.

23. Cleveland
Pick: Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace (NJ)

Cleveland has a thing for high school arms and Solometo is seen by some as the top left-hander in the draft, regardless of age. They seem like a logical landing point for fire-balling prepster Chase Petty, but many sources picking below this believe he’ll still be around for them, and might even fall entirely out of the first due to concerns about the delivery and smallish frame.

24. Atlanta Braves
Pick: Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP/SS, Nebraska

Rumors were strong Saturday that the Braves were ready to take Schwellenbach should he still be on the board, and that will likely be the case. The most interesting thing here might be what position they announce him as. They’re an exceptionally data-driven team when it comes to pitching, and if a mid-tier college arm somehow falls to them, it could alter their plans.

25. Oakland Athletics
Pick: Max Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks HS (CA)

The A’s have been rumored to be lining up any number of high school outfielders, but late word has them turning their focus on Muncy, who provides more assurance than most teenage bats as a big performer against some of the top high school competition in the country. Young outfielders Jay Allen, Joshua Baez, Tyler Whitaker and Ethan Wilson could all still be in the mix. Oakland’s system is pretty shallow, so this draft’s huge depth suits them particularly well.

26. Minnesota Twins
Pick: Jay Allen, CF, John Carroll Catholic HS (FL)

Allen might go ahead of this. High school infielders like Cooper Kinney, Wes Kath, and Izaac Pacheco are also thought to be in the Minnesota mix.

27. San Diego Padres
Pick: Frank Mozzicato, LHP, East Catholic HS (CT)

We listed several high schoolers who worked out for the Padres in our last mock. We’ll add Gage Jump to that list, though that might not be telling since Jump is a SoCal kid and already in SD’s neighborhood. Mozzicato had a private workout that impressed the Padres, and is the kind of big, athletic arm they covet.

28. Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina

Williams seems to have a status as back-up plan for any number of teams picking in the 20s, and his pitch data should appeal to the data-driven club. The Rays would assuredly have interest in Sweeney here as well, and possibly Tyler Black, with high school bat Cooper Kinney being mentioned as a deep sleeper.

29. Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami of Ohio

Sam Bachman’s hip and shoulder issues have some teams off him, and he also presents considerable reliever risk. The Dodgers have taken pitchers with both these issues before, including several last year.

30. Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Matt Mikulski, LHP, Fordham

Mikulski has plus stuff and little leverage sine he’s a senior, and makes sense for the Reds here if they spend big on their first-round pick or with their next comp pick.

31. Miami Marlins
Pick: James Triantos, SS, Madison HS (VA)

Teams are attaching Triantos, who has a very advanced hit tool, to Miami, Cleveland, and Texas.

32. Detroit Tigers
Pick: Jud Fabian, CF, Florida

Some feel like Fabian might go back to school if he doesn’t go in the first round. The Tigers have a penchant for SEC bats, and this is a good high-risk/high-upside pick on a player who was expected to be a top five selection heading into the season.

33. Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest

Cusick has big stuff, but not everyone is convinced he can remain a starter long-term.

34. Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Tyler Black, 2B, Wright State

Black is likely to come off the board a little bit before this (maybe even right before this pick, to Milwaukee), but as a contact-oriented middle infielder, he’s the Rays’ type of player.

35. Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian HS (FL)

Painter also offers a wide-range of possibilities, as he could go as high as the late teens, but we’ve yet to hear of him being any team’s primary target that high.

36. Minnesota Twins
Pick: Ethan Wilson, OF, South Alabama

This would just be a good value pick here.

Reverse Mock

We often come to learn about players attached to teams after the first round, and can also typically ballpark which teams are on which players later in the draft based on their previous draft history. We could mix this stuff in to a second round mock that would also feature a lot of total and complete guesses, so rather than do that, we’re trying what we’re calling a “Reverse Mock” where we list players and tell you what teams we have attached to them and why.

  • Denzel Clarke, OF, Cal State Northridge: 2nd round (dope)
  • Max Ferguson, 2B, Tennessee: Cleveland (team draft pattern)
  • Dominic Hamel, RHP, Dallas Baptist: Atlanta (dope)
  • Wes Kath, SS, Desert Mountain HS (AZ): Tampa Bay, Chicago White Sox, Oakland (all dope), Cleveland (pattern)
  • Cooper Kinney, 2B, Baylor HS (TN): Tampa Bay (dope)
  • Cody Morrissette, 2B, Boston College: New York Yankees, Seattle (dope)
  • Matthew Polk, OF, Orange Lutheran HS (CA): Oakland (dope)
  • Ricky Tiedmann, LHP, Golden West JC: St. Louis (dope)
  • Matheu Nelson, C, Florida State: Minnesota (pattern)
  • Tyler Whitaker, OF, Bishop Gorman HS (NV): Oakland (dope)
  • Carson Williams, SS, Torrey Pines HS (CA): San Diego (dope)
  • Alec Willis, RHP, Regis Jesuit HS (CO): Los Angeles Dodgers (dope), Philadelphia (dope)
  • Ben Kudrna, RHP, Blue Valley HS (KS): Pittsburgh (Bonus-driven logic and dope)
  • Noah Miller, Ozaukee HS (WI): Arizona, Seattle (dope)
  • Edwin Arroyo, SS, Arecibo Academy (PR): Boston (dope), St. Louis, Minnesota (pattern)
  • James Wood, 1B/OF, IMG Academ (FL): Cincinnati (dope)
  • Jackson Merrill: Seattle, Philadelphia (dope)
  • Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU: Washington (pattern)
  • Peyton Wilson, 2B, Alabama: Milwaukee, Seattle, Cleveland (pattern)

Sounds like they’re going to school: Thatcher Hurd, Caedmon Parker, Cody Schrier





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sadtrombone
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sadtrombone

About a week ago you mentioned that Colton Cowser and Kumar Rocker were FV50s but they are still listed as FV45+ on the board. Are you planning to upload the new list before the draft happens? I would still really love to read your reports on the draft prospects before the draft happens.

sadtrombone
Member
Member
sadtrombone

Just to follow up on this–Spencer Schwellenbach, who you have at 24, isn’t even on the list currently up there. Tyler Whitaker, mentioned as being in play at 25, isn’t on there either. Something about this does not seem right.

TheGarrettCooperFanClub
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Member
TheGarrettCooperFanClub

Idk why this got downvoted so much. I was looking for reports and see to where certain prospects were ranked too, but they weren’t shown on the board, which I agree seemed odd for a player projected to go in the first round.

sadtrombone
Member
Member
sadtrombone

I don’t know either, but they’ve been referencing a new list and new players all week and it isn’t up. I don’t have idea why it isn’t up but based on that it seems most likely that they thought it had been uploaded and it hasn’t.

I was kind of hoping to read about some of these guys before the draft started but I guess I’ll have to settle for reading them after they get picked.

VinnieDaGooch
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VinnieDaGooch

Probably because you are commenting it on every draft article. I am sure they have seen your comment by now if they were going to

sadtrombone
Member
Member
sadtrombone

Yeah, that’s probably where the downvotes are coming from. So I’ll take the hit if that’s annoying to people. But it’s also easier than asking “what are the scouting reports on these 25+ prospects that I would like to know more about.”