What Goes on in Draft Rooms
The draft is in five days, which means that teams are beginning to gather in their respective war rooms to prepare. It’s an exceptionally busy and hectic time. Many clubs have already had smaller, regional meetings as well as private workouts for players, both en masse and of the individual variety. The magnets are all printed out and ready to go. It’s just time to line them up.
Small or Large?
Teams organize their war rooms in highly divergent ways, but the biggest current split revolves around just how big the room is in terms of attendance. Some teams only have crosscheckers and those with more senior titles attend meetings, while others bring in their entire scouting staff. During my time with the Astros, the team always conducted full-staff meetings, and the benefits were numerous and glaringly clear. Area scouts know these players better than anyone and have seen them more than anyone. They’ve talked to the player, and quite possibly the player’s family. They might have followed a college player since their high school days. They know their coaches and summer league managers. They’ve run into the player’s representative multiple times during the spring and had a few chit-chats with them. Even if theirs is not the most important pure talent evaluation (though it often is), the things area scouts bring to the table are immensely valuable. And beyond their considerable assistance throughout the entire draft process, there’s also the simple morale component. Area scouts have sacrificed their lives for six months. They’ve missed birthdays, anniversaries and little league games, recitals and parent-teacher conferences, and now they’re not allowed in the room? It never made any sense to me, and it feels like more and more teams are moving to an all-scout meeting, as they should.
Reviewing Players
The players have been seen all they are going to be seen. The models have been run. Some are purely performance-based, while others incorporate more advanced technology like Trackman or Rapsodo when available. Some also try to fold in scouting grades as part of a more holistic approach to generating a number. The magnets have been lined up in a general way, but open discussions about each player can move the needle. Video is played while the player is discussed. A scout goes through the player’s history, their 2021 season, what the players is good at and, just as importantly, what they aren’t. Questions are asked within the room. What is the player’s future defensive position? Did they change something mechanically? Is there physical projection? Analysts will chime in on how the data sees the player, and how they compare to their peers in terms of performance, spin rates, exit velocities and other metrics. Many players have done NFL combine-style work at showcases or private events, and sports scientists will chime in on the player’s overall athleticism. Makeup is also discussed.
Most Day One or Two candidates have had a sit down with the team. Some have been asked to fill out questionnaires and many have not only spoken to a scout at some point, but also a sports psychologist or mental skills specialist (the Dodgers have a program called “Strong Mind” that they lean on). Most of the talk revolves around how the player will adjust to professional baseball, how aware the player is of their own strengths and weaknesses, and what their work ethic and approach to the game is. The player’s medical history is reviewed. All draft-eligible players submit to a medical questionnaire administered by the league office, and many make imaging of important joints like elbows, shoulders, ankles and knees available as well. Sometimes a team comes away with minor concerns, while other medical histories can create more significant questions, even to the point of putting a player in a separate “do not draft” category due to long-term injury concerns. Signability is discussed, and the player’s representation is confirmed for if a call needs to be made prior to an impending pick. Has the player or agent given any indication of what it will take to sign? Some players are ready to go and will communicate back that they are good for slot money through a certain round. Others, usually high school talents, provide a specific number they will ask for regardless of draft position. All of these factors can play into moving a magnet up or down the board, and significant adjustments to teams’ rankings are made between the beginning of draft meetings and the day selections are made.
Draft Day
Look, draft day is just plain fun and exciting. Some teams have their entire staff in suits; good food is brought in. It’s a celebration of a job well done and the anticipation of adding new players to your organization is palpable. Behind the scenes, agents have been ringing scouts and executives all day to politic and posture for their clients. Some take the calls, others let them go to voice mail; I know of one executive who turns his phone off from the morning of Day One until the first pick is made. By this time, the board is lined up and teams have spoken to the clubs ahead of them to help assess who might and might not be available by the time they are put on the clock. Some teams are forthcoming with such rumor-mill level information, others not so much. The day drags, and it feels like it takes forever for the draft to actually start in the early evening. For teams with late first round picks, there’s another two or three hours to wait between the first pick and their selection.
Then the draft finally begins. Some people are assigned magnet duty, removing each player’s magnet from the board after their name is called in order to avoid the massive embarrassment of selecting a player who has already been drafted. Picks are entered on a computer via MLB’s eBIS system, then confirmed, then announced to the public. As picks come off the board, the set of players teams are thinking about for their first pick starts to dwindle. Sometimes there are still multiple options, sometimes just one, and sometimes teams have to improvise, though rarely to the point of desperation. Everyone lines up players differently and if a team picking 15th lines up their top 15 players, chances are good that between evaluation differences and signability picks ahead of them, three to seven of those first 15 are going to be on the board for them.
As a team’s pick approaches, it’s almost time for outgoing calls to begin. There is a strategy to timing here: you don’t want to start too soon and give an agent too much time to shop your offer around, but you don’t want to start too late because you need to allow some room to get a deal done. And let’s be clear. The overwhelming majority of picks you hear on Day One of the draft are made with both sides having already agreed upon a bonus before the selection. There are reasonable rules provided by MLB as to how you’re allowed to frame those negotiations, but there is still plenty of room to allow the process to play out as it does. With somewhere between five and 15 minutes to go, the calls begin. Messaging from both sides of the table can vary wildly, but most parties are honest in their responses. Often, subtle pressure is applied by teams in the form of, “We have three guys lined up and we’re offering X dollars. You’re our top guy for this offer, but if you decline, we’re going to move to the next player on our list.” The most frequent response from agents is, “I’ll call you back in a couple of minutes.” From there, agents can respond with “yes,” “no,” a counter offer, or more information, such as “Don’t worry about my player, he’s going to go a couple picks ahead of you,” or “Don’t take my player, he has a better offer in terms of money behind you.”
Once a deal is agreed upon, the pick is made and there are handshakes all around, especially for the area scout, who will now be entered as the signing scout upon execution of the contract. Scouts want their players to be drafted and have an emotional investment in them. They want those handshakes and often advocate hard for their players, but they also have to be fair to the overall player pool. Often the best advice an evaluator can provide is to tell a team not to take a player rather than push to select them.
The first day is a whirlwind, but most teams only make one or two selections. Day Two, consisting of rounds two through 10, is more hectic due to the more limited time between picks but the process stays the same. And magnet duty becomes even more of a priority on Day Three, when there is no time between picks. Prior to each day, players of interest are once again reviewed in terms of signability, as some high school players now disappointed with their outlook inform teams that they are going to school, while others, mostly of the college variety, lower their price in order to ensure a selection that is attached to a bonus slot.
The Aftermath
Once the draft is finally over, and everyone has time to take a deep breath (about five minutes or so), the administrative functions kick in. Contracts have to be generated and signed, with some area scouts driving out to a player’s home to get ink on paper quickly and ensure that the verbal agreements are honored. Physicals need to be scheduled, with top picks usually going to the ballpark for a press conference and photo op on the field, while later-round picks usually head to a team’s spring training site to get the process initiated. In the background, player development is working to decide affiliate assignments for their signed players. The influx of fresh faces has a depressing flip side to it, as the beginning of multiple career always results in the endings of others. In the weeks following the draft, player releases — which remind everyone that most picks don’t work out — come fast and furious.
The 2021 Amateur Draft will be the second-shortest ever at 20 rounds. Team personnel have put their hearts and souls into the process for the last six months, but preparations have been going on for more than a year, and the 2022 process has already begun with college summer leagues and the high school showcase circuit already well underway. The picks themselves go past like the blink of an eye, but as the process ends, new baseball careers begin and the cycle always starts anew. Actually, it already has.
Kevin Goldstein is a National Writer at FanGraphs.
Nice work, Kevin. I am a former agent and I can attest to the fast and furious minutes leading up to the pick. The worst is when the phone simply doesn’t ring when you thought (or had been told) it was going to. I was also blown away when a team that never had a local scout present took our guy… and it happened more than you would think… especially after round three. That was 20 years ago so I imagine things have changed a bit… but the excitement remains the same.
The surprise picks are awfully fun, huh?
Would you mind elaborating on the agent side of things? Like a parallel timeline to this.
Twenty years ago is ancient history in this business. I mean, that was before Brad Pitt even wrote that book that became the meme about Ron Washington telling Chris Pratt how incredibly hard it is to learn to play first base.
Antonio… Joser is some bit correct, things have changed a lot from the early 2000’s. However, as agents (and I worked for a very large agency that you have heard of), we spent the years leading up to the draft being a little like a college coach. We spent lots of time at high schools, colleges and showcases scouting the players, talking to scouts, and meeting families. I even got sent to scout school (I don’t even know if the Bureau exists anymore). By the time the draft rolled around, we had invested 24 months or more trying to find the right guys to represent and convince them to trust us with their futures. Remember, 24 months in advance it is often hard to tell a 5th rounder from a 1st rounder. So we advised guys across the spectrum.
In the weeks of before the draft and the relationships are locked in, we were on the phones nonstop. The teams would talk to us as advisors and also talk the directly to the families or the kid themselves. The scouts also talk to each other. Coordinating, filtering, and sorting through the information while staying on a coordinated message was important. The relationships with the scouts and front office are integral. They want to know what you are hearing from other orgs and you want to know what they are thinking. Those relationships are key. Your job as an agent is to FILTER and not let the families get too excited or too down. You need to talk to each family and each player about their intentions/desires about playing/signing and at what thresholds. Real discussions – so that you can have real discussions with the teams. There is some posturing “I really like the idea of going to Stanford” – but most of the team appreciate straight shooting. As an. advisor, you create a reputation of straight talk, it will only help your players in the long run.
By the time of the draft, you have an idea as to where roughly in the draft your guys is gonna get popped. For instance, you have intel that your guy is projected mid-to late 1st but if “Royals” get a shot they will take him at 12 and if they don’t then they might slide to Dodgers at 28. Honestly, back then we had some major publications doing mocks… but we were hesitant to use those much as we had our own draft boards with our own intel.
On draft day, we often deployed our people to go to the houses of players while someone manned the mother ship to coordinate everyone. Lots of cell phone calls and hopefully, celebration. The surprises happen… and sometimes you are consoling a “lock first rounder” that falling to the fifth round is still incredible (you are elite) but a full scholarship to ACC college is a better platform than signing with the team. Lots of emotions. I used to always tell my guys to not get too high or low… they have work left to do.
Kevin… have things changed much? I hear that my old group has an analytics group now but I imagine our war room with the maps and dry erase boards still looks the same.
“teams have spoken to the clubs ahead of them to help asses who might and might not be available”
I presume you meant “assess” there . . .
Was going to comment on that too. Both words lend a meaning to the sentence, but not quite the same one. This one is a bit more amusing.
Ah you beat me to it…I was going to go with some sort of riff on Elaine’s “what, you don’t think I can put asses in the seats??”
It’s fixed.
How close is it to the blockbuster hit Draft Day starring beloved baseball moviestar Kevin Costner?
Why are there so many fans, like me, that are as excited about and excited to read about the building of the team? Goldstein’s posts are the rare treat for this side of the game. I especially appreciate the analysis of the different cultures that can contribute to an organization, especially when that culture is intentional.
I would love to one day hear a tradeoffs analysis of a team like the Nationals, with the fewest coaches AND fewest quants versus teams like the Giants with the most of both.
I don’t know about everyone else but I can speak for myself. Aside from just loving baseball, team building is an iterated puzzle. You never quite solve it, and even if you did the puzzle itself is changing. It’s fun!
Not sure the Giants have the most quants. Lots of team hide their quants by sub-contracting….
Is outsourcing the analytics department (or at least some analytics personnel) common across organizations? Intuitively, I guess that makes sense to me, given that it is more project-based than regularly occurring (presumably), with the full-time employees handling the regularly occurring analytics.
It’s not super common, but it is with a few organizations. It’s like you say. We’re building this model and we have it all scoped out, but need a small army for a bit to get it done in time.
Thanks for the response! I find that interesting from a pure employment standpoint. Would the contract analysts prefer to be employed full-time by an org, or do they like the flexibility that contract work provides? Do they provide contract work in fields other than baseball as well, or are some even employed full-time in other fields and do baseball work on the side? I ask these purely rhetorically, as the answers are specific to individuals of course. Analytics are more or less the one job function within baseball operations that transcends fields/industries, so I find this fascinating.
These articles are must-read content for me. A lot of this kind of stuff is never talked about and is mostly overlooked by fans. For me, What goes on off the field can be just as interesting as what goes on inside the white lines.
Can you elaborate more on the mechanisms around a team being told “Don’t take my player, he has a better offer in terms of money behind you” and then not taking the player because of it?
This has always confused me about the over/under slot negotiations. Once the player is drafted, the player has very little leverage. All they can do is refuse to sign. I can certainly see a team reneging on a verbal agreement poisoning the well enough to get a player to try again next year, but would a player react that way simply to another team drafting them and offering them a bit less than their best offer?
The only thing I can think of is that teams don’t want a disgruntled employee, and a few hundred thousand just isn’t enough money to be worth risking the bad vibes and development cost associated with that kind of thing. And that’s certainly sounds reasonable on its face — but basically nowhere else in the ecosystem do teams have that attitude. If they did they’d be paying all minor leaguers $50k a year, they wouldn’t have file-and-trial orientations to arbitration, etc. It just seems so unlike the teams typical public behavior for them respect these gentlemen’s agreements.
Alternatively, maybe players being drafted are in such a bad negotiating position that any resulting bonus numbers are going to be relatively close to their actual minimum acceptable offer. In that case “Don’t take him, he has a better offer” really just means “He won’t sign for that” with the extra market pressure of “Someone else thinks he’s worth that price.” The problem there is that would require teams to be really good at assessing the some subjective values on behalf of the player, and I’m not sure I think that’s plausible.
What am I missing?
I would guess some guys get picked anyway? Kevin said something else earlier–most players either communicate they want slot money for X number of rounds and/or a specific dollar figure. I don’t know how often a team gets the message “don’t pick, we have more money later” but hopefully you’re not too far off and so hopefully you don’t get that message often, or if you do and you decide to pick them anyway you are prepared to offer them a bit more or play hardball.
But you can’t play hardball too much, especially for underslot deals, because if you don’t sign them you lose the bonus money assigned to that slot. So teams have a pretty strong incentive to honor some of these agreements because if your supposed underslot pick goes to school he can blow up your bonus pool plan.
Also, these are often conversations with agents that have OTHER players you like as well, and screwing their player over isn’t going to help things with other players.
And it’s not like there are different agents every year or they get amnesia. The baseball transaction universe (whether you’re talking about team to team or team to agent) have few enough actors that get replaced slowly enough that the whole thing is basically an Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma. As Axelrod and others have shown, such setups tend to give rise to cooperative behavior because “defection” in one round gets remembered and punished in later rounds. Everybody wants to keep playing the game in the long term which creates the incentive to not behave badly in the short term.
“The only thing I can think of is that teams don’t want a disgruntled employee, and a few hundred thousand just isn’t enough money to be worth risking the bad vibes and development cost associated with that kind of thing. ”
Why risk a few hundred thousand doing this when you can risk a few million by fudging their service time a few years later?
This is great, thanks. Quick question–are you and Eric planning to upload writeups for draft prospects to THE BOARD soon? I’ve been looking forward to reading them!
“Some people are assigned magnet duty, removing each player’s magnet from the board after their name is called in order to avoid the massive embarrassment of selecting a player who has already been drafted.”
Has this occurred, to your knowledge? If so, any details you’d care to share? (what year, what round, what team, maybe what player – as granular as you’d be comfortable sharing)
I would assume more likely in the later rounds when the names start to run together and are less familiar, and draft room focus starts to wane after sitting around for hours on hours and people start getting punchy.
Plus I don’t know the mechanics of the actual picking process – if a designated person within an organization takes the pick to a certain MLB designee, and they may go “Jesus Christ Gerald, that guy’s already gone, pick someone else” and no one else is aware of the snafu or if it’s more widely known. Or the whole process could be entirely automated – type the player’s name/ID number into some computer system where the already-selected players are greyed out or otherwise highlighted to show they’re no longer available.
Only a couple times, and always in the WAY later rounds, past 20, which is all we are doing this year, and probably never doing more than 25 in the future. And yes, one definitely gets punchy, but that will be mitigated with day 3 going from 30 rounds to ten. The mechanics help you avoid too much embarrassment. The computer is going to tell you that the player is not eligible due to a previous selection.
IIRC, about a decade ago one team intended to draft a certain college pitcher around the 14th round, but they accidentally announced that they were picking a pitcher with the same name from a different school. The pick stuck, though I don’t remember whether they signed the guy or not (he was a total non-prospect).
The problem with that was that they did not only select the wrong player, they also entered the wrong ID and thus the pick was locked.
Similar to the Giants taking Brock Bond when they wanted Casey Bond? They got both, but Brock ended up being the better player. (Though Casey has the better IMDB page!)
I seem to recall something like that happening 5-6 years ago in a trade. A team had two prospects with a really common Spanish name like Francisco J[uan] Martinez and a Francisco J[ose] Martinez (or something like that) and another team ended up accidentally trading for the non-prospect one.
I remember that. Can’t think of the players or the team but I do remember that set of circumstances.
As a former magnet duty captain I appreciate you point out the importance of it!
Sometimes I would take it for a bit just to walk off the nervous energy….
Kevin, this was fantastic. You are such a valuable addition to the prospect team at FG. Thanks for this unique insight.
I’m curious about a couple of things:
1. With summer leagues (especially the CCBL) starting weeks before the draft with several higher-profile 2021 elig. players participating, are teams going to put a lot of stock into those performances? Someone like Kentucky’s John Rhodes has a limited sample of college at bats and never played on the cape. Do you think his performance (and players like him) there can greatly shift his stock prior to draft? Or is that evaluation set at this point?
2. You mentioned the in ‘The Aftermath’ section that:
“as the beginning of multiple career always results in the endings of others. In the weeks following the draft, player releases — which remind everyone that most picks don’t work out — come fast and furious.”
How bad is it going to be across the minors this year? With roster sizes set to be cut and fewer affiliates per organization, are we looking at an unprecedented purge of players across the minors in the coming weeks? Coming out of a pandemic, it will be hard to stomach seeing so many careers ended.
Thanks again for the article and all your hard work.
1. Some stock certainly. They’ve been watched/tracked certainly. It can move the stock, but I wouldn’t say “greatly”. At a certain point, the models get run, and that’s that.
2. It’s already been bad. The big releases happened in the off-season and after spring training broke.
One thing I’ve always wanted to know, and maybe you can provide some insight Kevin:
How do you feel about “ceremonial” picks, like how the Mariners drafted Ken Griffey Jr’s son in the 24th round because that was his dad’s number? Do you think there is a worthwhile place and purpose to these sort of picks?
Actually might write a blurb about this for tomorrow’s piece….
I remember the Phillies taking a couple of ceremonial picks a few years back, during their “rebuild” and a local writer got pissed and published a rant of some sort. I responded with a “happens all the time and nothing to worry about” remark and he basically told me that I was an idiot and should go $%#! myself. I guess he was really sure that there was some kind of big opportunity being missed there.
My understanding is that there’s no money involved and the kids are not going to go to camp so it’s just a cool gesture to the family. Kid gets to see their name called and nothing more.
Do any of these kids end up trying to make a team? I know that Piazza was supposedly a favor to Lasorda but I assume that they actually thought he might be something. I’d like to read the piece, if you do decide to write one.
Another great you-were-there piece, KG. You’ve been an invaluable addition to the roster.
Thanks for this article. I love all the behind-the-scenes stuff, like this, and how some trades come together. It’s kind of the game within the game. I’d love to see additional BTS articles.
Based on the reception these get, you will certainly get more.
I thought my dream of a baseball career was done…(stares wistfully out of the window)… Magnet Guy…
Must have 10 years of quantitative analysis experience, proficient in Hadoop, python, noSQL database, data lakes, and R. Minimum of a masters degree in computer science or related field. Experience in baseball as a former player (D1 college level or above) preferred.
Starting pay $45,000/year.
Usually those qualifications are for the unpaid intern positions. You need more than that to get $45K per year.
I’ve long wanted to dress dogs in suits and put them around the table when the MLBN crew comes in to shoot our footage. A dream that remains unfulfilled.
Will the bulldog be handing (er, pawing?) an ace of hearts to one of the other dogs under the table?
For rebuilding teams, can the draft shift trade direction?
Say you draft 3 pitchers you love. Does your prospect target list shift to fill other gaps? Or is basically any prospect acquisition about getting the best player(s) available regardless of position?
I’ve always assumed in baseball, since the prospects are so far from the MLB, that you always just draft the best talent/signable player available at every pick. The chances of what you need now vs. 5 years from now are almost certainly going to be different.
Very interesting read. Thank you.
Great piece Kevin and 100% spot on. I was the baseball ops intern / magnet-man for the Astros in 2012 (Correa draft), just before you arrived. The anticipation and energy on draft day is unreal. Best part of the whole ordeal was the days before the draft in the room with the scouts going back and forth about player X or player Y. The debate that year was between Correa, Buxton, and Appel (with a little bit of Giolito and Fried discussion in the mix). The passion that the area scouts have for their guys is incredible. The work those guys do on a day-to-day basis is truly outstanding. I only saw it for a season, but walked away with an intense respect for the process and the people that get it done year in and year out.
Fascinating stuff, as usual, Kevin. Have you ever seen a team make a panic pick with their first or second picks because their plans were shot? Would you be able to tell?
Why don’t more HS players who aren’t drafted as high as they want going to Juco for a year to be available 12 months later? I understand there’s a major difference in program quality, but it would keep them from being off the market for 3 years.