Mr. Consistency Is Cleveland’s Second-Half MVP

A brief examination of the Cleveland Indians’ roster reveals a number of good players having a number of good seasons. That’s generally the type of thing you’d expect from a team that currently possesses one of the best records in baseball.

Much of Cleveland’s overall success has been the result of a strong second half. By wins above replacement, Corey Kluber has been the club’s most important contributor since the All-Star break. Among non-pitchers, Francisco Lindor has a very narrow lead over one of his teammates in the WAR column. And the identity of that teammate might not be completely obvious. It isn’t last year’s breakout star Jose Ramirez, for example. It’s not big offseason acquisition Edwin Encarnacion, either. No. In a virtual tie with Lindor for second-half WAR is veteran Carlos Santana. The first baseman has arguably been the best player on baseball’s best team in the second half. The 31-year-old soon-to-be free agent has inarguably been one of baseball’s best hitters since the All-Star break.

Travis Sawchik noted a week ago that the Indians were becoming American League favorites — this, while the club was only just entering the second half of its two-week-long win streak. Cleveland now has a several-game lead on the rest of baseball in terms of wins since the All-Star Break, a fact illustrated graphically here:

This chart is sorted by second-half winning percentage, which explains why some of the teams seem slightly out of order in terms of wins. The top four teams shown here are all leading their divisions. Ditto for one of the teams, Boston, tied for fifth. As for division-leading Houston, they established such a big lead in the first half of the season that their second-half slide hasn’t cost them much ground. The Dodgers have lost 11 of their last 12 and still rank fourth in the MLB in wins since the All-Star break.

What’s interesting about Cleveland is not only that they’re pacing the league in the second half, but that they’ve also posted one of the biggest improvements from the first half — this despite having produced a solid first-half record. Here are the biggest improvements from first-half record by winning percentage.

The Cubs have posted the biggest improvement in the second half, but they were below .500 at the All-Star break. The Washington Nationals were good in the first half and have been slightly better in the second. Cleveland was also good in the first half but have been amazing thus far in the second. At the All-Star break, the Dodgers had a .678 winning percentage. The Indians’ second-half winning percentage is .692. Here is how all of the teams have done so far this season by half, through Wednesday’s games.

Cleveland has been resurgent in the second half? And who’s led that resurgence? The club’s rotation certainly deserves a bulk of the credit — though, to be fair, the rotation has been very good all season. The starters put up a 3.76 FIP in the first half. That was good for third in MLB, though poor luck or poor defense or both led to a 4.29 ERA that was closer to the middle of the pack. In the second half, Cleveland starters have posted an amazing 3.12 FIP, nearly half a run better than the second-place Diamondbacks. And Cleveland’s luck has turned around a bit: their 2.97 ERA (66 ERA-) is the best in baseball when you factor for park and league.

Cleveland’s offense has improved just from slightly above average in the first half — while being terribly un-clutch — to 10% above league average as a team. While Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Edwin Encarnacion get more of the notoriety, and perhaps deservedly so, Carlos Santana has been outhitting the rest of the team by leaps and bounds. Here are the nine Cleveland batters with at least 100 plate appearances in the second half, through Wednesday.

Jay Bruce (omitted here) has a 131 wRC+ so far for Cleveland in under 100 plate appearances, but Santana is way ahead of Edwin Encarnacion, and the difference between Santana and Francisco Lindor is roughly the same as the difference between Lindor and Yan Gomes. As for being one of baseball’s best hitters in the second half, here’s the leaderboard for qualified hitters sorted by wRC+ through Wednesday.

Santana got off to a lousy start this season, but he’s going to end up with another solid year right around his career marks. He has been one of the more remarkably consistent players since he entered the league. In his first full season back in 2011, Santana received 658 plate appearances and put up a 124 wRC+ and a 3.3 WAR. In his seven professional seasons, he’s recorded just one “down” year — back in 2015, when he received 666 plate appearances but only put up a 105 wRC+ and 2.1 WAR. In every other season, he’s produced a wRC+ between 120 and 132 and a WAR between 2.6 and 3.6. He compiled more than 600 plate appearances in every case. For all that consistency, Cleveland has paid a bargain $33 million total over those seven years, as Santana heads for free agency heading into his age-32 as a first base/DH-only hitter.

Santana’s consistency and health is remarkable, especially considering that the serious knee injury he suffered as a rookie likely affected his long-term ability to remain at catcher. In spite of that, he’s always hit enough to stay in the lineup and is one of just six MLB players with at least 600 PA in each of the past six seasons. Of players in that club, Adrian Gonzalez is unlikely to reach the 600-PA threshold this season, leaving just Santana, Justin Upton, Andrew McCutchen, Ian Kinsler, and Robinson Cano. Out of all MLB players, only McCutchen and Cano have recorded more plate appearances and a higher wRC+ than Santana’s 123 since the beginning of the 2011 campaign.

There’s something to be said for just showing up, but Santana doesn’t just show up. He’s the embodiment of the sometimes derisive term “professional hitter”, and he’s in the middle of the best half-season of his career. Pitching and defense are important, but with the way he’s hitting, Carlos Santana has been the second-half MVP for baseball’s best team in the second half.