Neil Weinberg FanGraphs Q&A – 10/8/14
2:41 |
@NeilWeinberg44 is my Twitter handle if you want to get in touch another way. |
3:02 |
: Alright, let’s discuss baseball and baseball stats. We could also pretend a baseball game happening, although that might get complicated.
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3:02 |
Do you think Adam Eaton will consistently be a 4 to 5 WAR player, assuming he stays healthy? |
3:04 |
: Was about a 3 WAR player in 538 PA this year, so he’d have to add 10-15 runs of value to do so. I think the 115-120 wRC+ range is about right, so he’d have to really start impressing the base running and defensive metrics. I think he’s good enough to do it in theory, but we’re talking about the stars all lining up. Expected a 2-3 WAR guy, be thrilled if he reaches that 4-5 WAR ceiling
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3:05 |
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3:05 |
Would a trade involving Jose Quintana and Mookie Betts make sense for both teams? The White Sox could potentially have Sale, Rodon,Danks and perhaps sign Shields or a lower tier guy like McCarthy. |
3:06 |
: hmmm…this is interesting. Quintana is good pitcher on a very great contract, so he’s the type of pitcher who you’d consider in a deal like this. I think it’s JQ+something for Betts, but I don’t think it’s a crazy place to start.
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3:06 |
Who are some under-the-radar players(in fWAR and other stats) that their current teams are under-utilizing and would be likely breakout candidates if they were dealt? |
3:07 |
: Craig Gentry is always my answer to this question. But let’s see…who else?
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3:09 |
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3:09 |
It is generally believed that the AL is better than the NL. One can confirm this by looking at interleague records over the past few years. Am I correct in saying that Fangraphs does not adjust for this in WAR/wRC+/etc. and the league adjustment is for DH or no DH purposes? |
3:10 |
: Not really. So in WAR, we zero out both leagues so that each league has exactly 0.0 win above average. And wRC+ and other index stats are scaled to your specific league average, not MLB.
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3:11 |
The early steamer projection on Wilin Rosario… too optimistic? He looks like the 3rd best catcher next year if these projections come true. |
3:11 |
: Doesn’t steamer just project 2013 Rosario with slightly better defense (2-3WAR)? What are you looking at?
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3:11 |
Why all this chatter about Mookie Betts? Is there reason to suspect he may be available? |
3:12 |
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3:12 |
Please tell me Ben Cherington would not trade Mookie in a Hamels deal. |
3:13 |
: I mean, it wouldn’t bet Hamels for Betts with no other stipulations. They could exist in the same trade if Philly added more or ate lots of money.
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3:13 |
We want a Rusney Castillo projection! Rabble! (also Melky Cabrera, Dustin Pedroia, Brett Lawrie, Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Homer Bailey, Masahiro Tanaka, Matt Cain, Kris Medlen, CC Sabathia, Patrick Corbin, Matt Moore, Michael Wacha, Jon Lester) |
3:14 |
: Injured players are a little wacky right now because we have to shift the playing time over from 2014 to 2015. Will get updated!
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3:14 |
Any chance FG can get rid of the annoying video ads that automatically play? Don’t mind FG making its money but video ads are the worst. |
3:15 |
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3:15 |
Any particular reason FG doesn’t carry postseason data in the individual player game logs? Calendar won’t let you move past September. The data is on the player pages, just not game logs. Would be nice to get data for particular series rather than the whole postsean |
3:16 |
: Yeah, I think the entire industry is just weird about postseason data. This would be solid to have
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3:16 |
enough with the mookie betts questions today. |
3:17 |
: People want to talk about Mookie! Ask non-Mookie questions if you want non-Mookie answers!
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3:17 |
When calculating RE24/9, do you need to make an AL/NL adjustment, or does (mlbR/mlbIP-RE24/IP)*9 work? |
3:18 |
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3:19 |
: This is going to line up with a pretty standard RA9 type number, but we use different park adjustments for RE24 and like ERA-, so there’s not a clean way to make them identical. The method would be better if you went through and did it for each game rather than assuming the 0.46, but I’m usually just shooting for a quick estimate
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3:19 |
Going forward, how worried about the Tigers are you? It feels like they’re fading and have some big, ugly contracts about to kick in. In addition, they’re either losing important pieces or about to overpay to keep those pieces (mostly V-Mart). |
3:21 |
: I think the Tigers are heading into an important offseason. Either they push in their chips for one last shot in 2015 or they should think about retooling. They have some contracts that will go south, but they also have a big payroll and aren’t totally prevented from spending more.
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3:21 |
: You don’t like the idea of paying only JV and Cabrera, but they’re still looking at $120M for 23 roster spots. That’s not bad!
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3:21 |
right now would you rather have 5 years of Rendon or 3 of Stanton |
3:21 |
wait Stanton has 2 years left, never mind! |
3:22 |
: Rendon!
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3:22 |
When building a team, would it be more beneficial to the team if a player’s WAR was from hitting or a combination of bat/glove? |
3:22 |
: On balance, it doesn’t really matter. But it depends on the type of pitchers you have and depth and such.
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3:23 |
Neil, I’m interested in writing for Beyond the Boxscore. How can I become an author? |
3:23 |
: I wonder if I’m allowed to answer this in a FG chat?! I’m going to. You should write a FanPost at BTBS or send samples to me or the other editors to demonstrate your abilities.
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3:24 |
Who’s the most valuable out of Alcantra, Baez and Soler next season? |
3:24 |
: Soler? Could reasonably be any of them.
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3:24 |
Am i the only one who thinks the RedSox should just keep betts? |
3:24 |
: Nope! Didn’t Dave write this same thing? Betts is valuable.
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3:24 |
The Tigers window… how close is it to shut? |
3:25 |
: When you can spend $170M, it’s never totally shut. But I think they’re closing in on a do some reorganizing/take a year off type spot.
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3:25 |
Would a 5/100 deal sign Pablo Sandoval? And would he likely post ~3WAR yearly average to make that a good contract? |
3:26 |
: I think that would get it done. I think he probably gets something more like 4/65, to be honest. I think it’s a better bet that he’s 2-3 WAR for the next few years
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3:26 |
I think we may get caught up a little too much in “trade value” and its emphasis on cost/control if people think that Stephen Strasburg is not enough to get Betts. The kid is young and Boagarts should be reminder of how things can pan out. |
3:27 |
: You have to consider that Strasburg only has two years left on his deal. Fine if you want to attach some risk to Betts, but if Stras gets hurt in April and misses 5 months, a lot of his value is gone. Established players are also risky!
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3:27 |
The 2015 AL Central Champion is ________, winning by ___ games |
3:27 |
: Tigers, 2.
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3:28 |
Are you buying into Michael Brantley? |
3:28 |
: Skeptical that all of the power is real. More like 4 WAR than 6.
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3:28 |
How do you compare the offence of NL teams to AL teams without including the pitchers? |
3:29 |
: On our leaderboards, there is an “NP” tab in the positions row. Click it!
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3:29 |
Believe the steamer projection for Bryant next year? |
3:30 |
: Seems bullish, but not in a crazy way. I think projections are great, but I’m not sold we do a great job on young players and post-injury players. Bryant is great, but I’m not sure he’ll be that good that fast. We’ll see!
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3:30 |
Is there any precedent for A-Rod’s situation, as in, a HoF caliber player takes an entire year off not because of injury and returns? Is it possible his health/performance will benefit from the time off? |
3:31 |
: The guys who went to war. Go look at Ted Williams career page. I will wait. He was insane. I know people are tired of ARod, but I am fascinated by how he will play in 2015
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3:31 |
Matt Joyce is basically a player who benefits from power and a few timely streaks of good hitting, is that enough to overlook his questionable splits, his lack of sustainable power and abysmal defensive prowess? Do Rays benefit anything from keeping him another year? |
3:32 |
: Joyce is one of those players who gets knocked for what he can’t do. Dude has been a 1.5+ WAR player every year in which he’s had any playing time. Just because he’s not a star doesn’t mean you don’t want that guy around.
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3:33 |
Do you know any programming languages, and if so, which do you find most useful? |
3:34 |
: I’m not a very good programmer. It’s something I want to do in the long run. I know the fundamentals of R, HTML, CCS, but I still use Excel/Docs for most things. Might try to pick up another this year.
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3:34 |
Follow up: Right so is it plausible that a 1.0 win player in the AL would actually be something like a 1.2 win player in the NL, since the player earned his stats playing against harder competition? Or is this adjusted for? |
3:35 |
: It should basically even out with the adjustments. But those are estimates. In theory, we would like to control for specific opponents, but haven’t implemented that yet. So an NL starter has to have a better FIP to have the same WAR, all else equal, but there’s a lot more to it.
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3:35 |
how is the difference in strength accounted for in FG’s iteration of WAR. |
3:35 |
: Can you be more specific?
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3:35 |
Do you see any reason to believe run scoring will make a comeback in the coming years? |
3:36 |
: I would imagine that in a few years, maybe around 2018 or so, you’ll notice the strikezone shrink back to pre 2008 levels and we’ll magically get more offense!
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3:36 |
Do you think sites like Fangraphs suffer from sensationalism? I remember when Dave was driving the RA9-WAR bus and seemed to back off. A couple years ago when framing was new, everyone was on the Yadier Molina for MVP bandwagon. But Lucroy has had an better season than that and we are now suddenly more skeptical of how much credit a catcher should get. |
3:37 |
: I think everyone has a recency bias. If you give me a new stat, I’m going to look at the world through those eyes for a while. But over time, the newness wears off and I just add it into my overall image of a player. Wouldn’t call it sensationalism, but we’re always fighting against putting too much emphasis on something right away
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3:37 |
if you could project the final standings for the NL Central in 2015, what would it be? |
3:38 |
: Well the teams will change their rosters, but: STL, CHC, PIT, CIN, MIL?
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3:38 |
Kolten Wong, Matt Adams or Oscar Taveras, who do you see becoming a Top 10 player in WAR at their position first? |
3:39 |
: Adams? Think Taveras has the most potential but he’s got the hardest competition.
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3:39 |
How is the difference in league strength accounted for in fangraph’s iteration of WAR? If I take someone with 4 WAR in the NL and he stays at 4 WAR in the AL? |
3:43 | : You should basically not see dramatic differences on average. Obviously, specific players will respond differently to a change, but we adjust for the difference in Batting Runs and the league adjustment. This is how we do WAR for position players |
3:43 |
What are the chances a player can change their batted ball profile? I really like Christian Yelich. His combination of discipline,power,speed, and left field defense reminds me a bit of Jayson Werth. But the power has been lacking and it is because he hits 61% Grounballs, next to Revere and Aoki…That doesn’t bode well for more power |
3:44 |
: I don’t know exactly how often it happens, but plenty of guys do change their profiles. Usually means swing mechanics or something about which pitches they attack.
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3:44 |
If the Tigers fall do you see the Royals as the long term leader in that division? |
3:45 |
: I think you could make the case that all four teams have a pretty even outlook for the next 4-5 years. Might put my money on CWS.
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3:45 |
The Yankees and Braves runs were insane, but St. Louis has made 11 of the last 15 postseasons, which seems less insane a goal for teams with money and smart FO’s. This is how I am coping with the Nats 2014 NLDS, but it could apply to Detroit too, I guess |
3:45 |
: Consistent regular season success is a skill. Winning in the playoffs is just a thing that happens 🙁
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3:45 |
Assume the Rockies are going in a different direction. Bogaerts and Betts for Tulowitzki and Brothers. Who says no? |
3:46 |
: I don’t know…that’s a lot for Boston to give up, but Tulo is awesome and his contract isn’t bad. Guess it’s conditional on the medicals…
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3:46 |
Do you think a team like the Red Sox has gotten cheap because they realize that money isn’t needed to win? They seem to be reluctant to spend and have “can they afford it” conversations while the the Yankees and Dodgers are spending like drunken sailors. |
3:48 |
: I think teams are getting wise to the idea that you shouldn’t just sign a good player, you should sign the player that fits best. Cubs are a good example. They could have signed someone last winter, but there was no point. Why waste a year?
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3:48 |
Do you know any foreign languages, and if so, which do you find most useful? |
3:49 |
: I know a little German, and I was learning Spanish for a bit but life got in the way. Would like to get back to it.
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3:49 |
It is a shame there is no Steamer projection for A-Rod. I bet it sees a 3 win player. |
3:49 |
: It will show up eventually! Very early stages!
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3:49 |
Python all the way, baby!!! |
3:49 |
: This one comes up a lot. Interested in trying.
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3:49 |
It is worth a note Strasburg will not be a National in 2017. Zero chance. Boras guy. That hurts his value to the Nationals. |
3:50 |
: Money talks. If Nats want him to stay, he’ll stay. But he’s not someone who will sign a team friendly deal.
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3:50 |
I’m thinking in terms of something like a RE24-WAR instead of RA9-WAR. Though maybe REW plus a replacement level adjustment would be better, or does that not really work with pitching WAR? |
3:51 |
: Yeah, I would favor an RE24-WAR, but the problem is that for most pitchers it will be very close to their RA9-WAR, so the value added is pretty low relative to some other stats we could create. But for some pitchers, it’s a huge deal.
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3:51 |
If you were a GM this offseason, are there any guys you’d target in a trade that the fans would hate you for at first, but you think could become a solid starter? i.e. I think Hank Conger is bad, but what if he hit a bit? |
3:52 |
: Gentry. I don’t think teams place enough value on amazing defensive players, so there would be a moment of “he hit what in 2014?” and then a moment of “omg he caught that?”
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3:52 |
OT but awesome http://pnis.co/hard1.pdf |
3:52 |
: Haha!
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3:52 |
Do you think baseball would be better with more offense? |
3:53 |
: I don’t mind low run scoring, but I think the average fan prefers it.
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3:53 |
Chances of Joey Votto being the Yankee’s starting 1B in 2017? |
3:53 |
: Doubt it. If you’re taking Votto’s contract, you want the 2014-2016 version of Votto to compensate for the later version that is less good.
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3:53 |
The pirates finished a full 12 games ahead of the Cubs in the standings this season. Do you really anticipate the Cubs improving/Pirates regressing 12 games?! That is what you are suggesting when you rank CHC ahead of PIT in your NL Central projections. |
3:55 |
: Pirates going to lose Martin, it seems like. Cubs going to get full seasons from a handful of prospects. Cubs more likely to sign big free agent. I don’t think it’s a crazy though to say the Pirates get 5 games worse and Cubs get 8-10 games better. But I thought about the other way.
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3:55 |
*actually, the pirates were 15 games better than the cubs, 12 ahead of Cincy! |
3:55 |
: RE: above comment
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3:55 |
Is “hard hit” % data publicly available anywhere? |
3:55 |
: No. Mark Simon tweets about it a lot though.
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3:56 |
Why is a context neutral stat such as WAR the starting point for an MVP discussion? I would think when talking about value of what has happened in the past, context is incredibly important. RBI isn’t as advanced as the other stats out there but I don’t think it should be ignored if it’s simply an MVP discussion, not a best player discussion. |
3:57 |
: This is a value question. I personally don’t like to assign credit for when a player gets there hits, but it’s reasonable if you do. If you want something like RE24 instead of batting runs for the MVP discussion, that’s fine.
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3:57 |
The entire Diamondbacks organization for Mookie Betts: who says no? |
3:57 |
: Well without Gibson and KT….that might be okay… 🙂
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3:58 |
Do you think the Braves could get a decent return for Chris Johnson? His D has improved somewhat and his contract isn’t onerous. |
3:58 |
: No. Johnson isn’t a horrible player, but he makes 7-10 million right? He’s not worth more than that, so no one is giving up anything more than some meh player
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3:58 |
In 3 years, who hits the ball farther, Harper or Stanton? |
3:59 |
: I love this question. Harper, I think.
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3:59 |
Why do the Rockies seemingly get in their own way in both front office decisions and with organizational moves. Are they the most poorly run organization in baseball? |
4:00 |
: I don’t know. But I’m fascinated by teams that do things a specific way consistently without any success. My guess is that ownership has a different set of goals and values that most of us think, so we see weird behaviors but they aren’t as worried about it? No idea. Probably better question for Paul.
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4:00 |
On a mostly unrelated note, how’s this for depressing? 2014 Tigers bullpen: 447 IP, 0.6 WAR; sum of 11 former Tigers’ 2014 relief stats: 447.1 IP, 5.8 WAR. |
4:01 |
: This is everything you need to know about the Tigers.
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4:01 |
I don’t think that the Red Sox are cheap, I think that they realize the true contribution of PEDs was player longevity and multi-year high dollar investments in players in their 30s (ie most free agents) are no longer as succesful as they were a decade ago. |
4:02 |
You’ll notice, some writers are about winning right now and some writers are about winning consistently. If a team sits out a big free agent (think Cano), they aren’t committed…or they’re super smart! Different values. |
4:03 |
I’d like to pretend game 5 of the NLCS is happening tomorrow. Let’s make that happen! |
4:03 |
: Can Fister pitch?
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4:03 |
I always thought Jeter’s “marquee value” was over-stated, but were you aware his last home game was the most watched game in YES Network history? They were mathematically eliminated at that point! |
4:03 |
: Jeter is beloved.
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4:03 |
What kind of return could Yoenis Cespedes bring in trade? Could a team like the Mariners trade from their pitching depth? Iwakuma is only signed for 2015 as well I believe. |
4:04 |
: Cespedes probably brings back a similar player. Good not great on a short, reasonable deal.
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4:04 |
How confident should I be as a Bucco fan that Polanco will take a step forward and push Snider into the 4th OF role next year? |
4:04 |
: You’re never sure, but Polanco should be a regular in 2015.
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4:05 |
: Alright, quick break. Throw up some more questions and I’ll keep going until they run out.
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4:07 |
How are park factors calculated? |
4:08 |
http://www.fangraphs.com/li…
: Basically, you compare how a team hit (and their opponents) to how well they hit on the road. We use 5 years of data. You can read the specifics if you follow that link. So basically, how did a team and their opponents hit at a park for the last five seasons relative to how they hit in the other parks. |
4:08 |
what do you prefer, RA9 or ERA? |
4:09 |
: RA9. ERA is only useful because it’s so common. If RA9 was on every website like ERA, I would never look at ERA.
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4:09 |
AL Central might have the most disappointing ballparks in the bigs. Comerica is rather unremarkable. Progressive lacks ANY semblance of atmosphere around the park (yes that is a factor), Target field is new-ish but not very moving and the Cell is probably the worst park in the bigs. Your thoughts? |
4:10 |
: I’m biased for Comerica, so whatever. But I’ve heard Target is great. I think Prog is fine and people like the K. I hate US Cellular. Agree that it’s the worst active park (that I’ve been to).
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4:10 |
Do you think teams should be more aggressive about modifying their home parks to fit their team compositions (say, moving in the RF porch if your team has strong lefty pull hitters?) |
4:11 |
: No, because you can’t change the park every year and your team is going to change a lot. I think you have to commit to a style and go with it. I would, however, want LF and RF to play evenly.
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4:11 |
What stat is next up on Friday? |
4:11 |
: I don’t know! Any requests? Usually decide on Wednesday after the chat.
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4:12 |
As a Royals fans: What do you think it would cost for Votto if they decided to let Butler fully walk and let Votto DH? |
4:12 |
: Very interesting, because Votto is a great player who is paid a lot of money. Those are hard guys to trade because there’s so much name value, but also, guys who make sense to deal if you want to rebuild. Gosh, I don’t know.
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4:13 |
Is a stress fracture in a foot/ankle a worrying injury for a young player or is that the type of injury that usually heals fully? Asking since Rafael Devers suffered one today but since he is only 17 immediacy isn’t an issue, I just know in basketball stress fractures on feet can kill talented young players careers. |
4:14 |
: I know a little about this from following Iglesias’ injury, but I’m given to understand from the medical people I heard from, that if you allow them to properly heal it isn’t necessarily a problem. But that might also vary. You never want to see an injury like that, but it’s not a death sentence.
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4:14 |
Instead of altering your park to fit your players… why don’t you just build your roster with some element of park in mind? |
4:14 |
: Most teams do, I think. But it’s hard because there’s only a finite number of available players at one time.
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4:14 |
US Cellular is an especially disspiriting park because one of the rejected designs (Armour Field) had a very progressive design and would’ve probably have become a classic park along the lines of OPACY http://www.thursdayassociat… |
4:15 |
: No offense to anyone who likes it, but I found the Cell to be super duper depressing. My wife and I always joke about them serving Digorno pizza too. Frozen pizza!
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4:15 |
If you pushed your home park’s fences back to 500 feet and then built your team around that, could you win 70 games/season at home with a league average payroll? |
4:16 |
: I don’t think so.
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4:16 |
Reasonable returns for Joyce and/or Zobrist? |
4:17 |
: Zobrist could net you a non-elite, but very good prospect. Joyce, probably someone with a non-starter MLB future with some upside? I’m bad at prospects, though.
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4:17 |
Gosh if the fences were 500 feet an outfield seat would be worth like $2 |
4:18 |
: I would like to see what baseball would look like in weird parks.
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4:19 |
What makes KC’s UBR the worst in baseball? |
4:19 |
: They have some very horrible base runners and some very good ones. The -10 for Aoki is a bit strange, but everything else lines up with my expectations. Remember this is non-SB stuff
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4:20 |
Which WS possibility would be the most competitive, or most likely to go 7 games |
4:20 |
: O’s Cards? I have no idea. Going with that.
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4:20 |
What made you a Tigers fan? |
4:20 |
: Grew up in Toledo and my dad grew up in Detroit.
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4:20 |
While we’re talking about parks: Why don’t MLB teams insist their minor league affiliates set their fences (when possible) to match the dimensions of the major league stadium? |
4:21 |
: Right? There’s another problem with this though, it’s not just about dimensions. It’s about the weather and the atmosphere. Coors and Petco don’t play extreme because of the dimensions, it’s largely about the air. Can’t fake that. But teams should kind of think about this.
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4:21 |
Is there any chance that the Marlins make a play in free agency? They seem pretty close, with Fernandez returning around mid season, some bullpen upgrades and fixing the infield could have them right there, and they did spend money before trading it away 3 years ago. |
4:22 |
: You never know, this seems like a year they’re spend, but can you imagine a player signing a long term deal with them ever?
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4:22 |
Isn’t the average length of time a specific minor league team is affiliated with a specific major league team too short for the big league club to insist on a similar park? |
4:22 |
: Well you wouldnt get them to change the structure, just the fence dimensions. Maybe that’s more expensive than it seems.
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4:23 |
Why don’t the red sox have any desire to move betts to 3B? he came up as a SS and it would 1. plug a huge hole in 3B and 2. Free up the playing time situation in the OF |
4:23 |
: I have heard this floated, and that they just aren’t saying anything to avoid tanking WMB’s trade value?
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4:25 |
Well, if you want to talk about weather, I’m also always baffled as to why teams don’t insist the AAA club is close by and in similar climate (and near busy airport). Forcing a player to fly 2000 miles for every call-up/send-down seems like an enormous hassle for your talent. I know there are business concerns with affiliations but still… |
4:26 |
: Teams prefer this, just isn’t always possible. Tigers have affiliates close by and near their spring training facility (also one in CT). But there’s never going to be perfect alignment as long as the affiliates have some control.
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4:26 |
Is Mookie Betts the most hyped prospect since Harper? Every other question on every Fangraphs chat is about him. |
4:27 |
: 1) Betts is a prospect and he’s interesting because he might be traded! 2) Overhyped? Harper is one of the best players ever for such a young age.
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4:27 |
Do you believe in MGL’s times through order penalty. it seems rock solid, but why don’t managers know anything about it? |
4:28 |
: Yes. Managers don’t know lots of things. Also, managers can’t bring themselves to accept that something that doesn’t look like it’s happening is happening. Pitcher is throwing well means pitcher is throwing well to a manager. They can’t break the conditioning.
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4:28 |
Didn’t say overhyped for Harper, just that people are freaking out about Betts. |
4:28 |
: He’s interesting! I don’t think over-hyped and talking about are the same thing.
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4:28 |
Betts at 3rd is what? Matt Carpenter? |
4:29 |
: I think that’s what you hope. Although we’re not really sure about Carp’s true power. Great approach and all, but there’s some uncertainty still about exactly what kind of player he is
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4:29 |
Betts for Dylan Bundy. Who says no? |
4:29 |
: Sox.
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4:29 |
Is the time though the order penalty “equal”? I imagine a fastball/ slider guy suffers more than a Kershaw type with several elite pitches in the arsenal |
4:30 |
: Everyone suffers, but better pitchers are working from a better baseline. So Kershaw is worse 3rd and 4th time through, but 3rd time through Kershaw is still a good pitcher.
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4:30 |
If you could just get a manager to realize “hey their 4 best hitters are coming up for a 4th time, maybe they shouldn’t see the same stuff from a tired pitcher” |
4:32 |
: Managers also don’t want to pull a starter who is doing well. They just don’t, even if you can predict he’s about to falter.
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4:32 |
do you know of any coaches or would be managers that are coming through system who have working knowledge of sabermetrics? I don’t understand why management isn’t insisting on it. |
4:33 |
: There are plenty, but I think it comes down to the fact that most coaches are employed to helps players with their skills. So a pitching coach doesn’t need to know FIP as much as he needs to know how to help you throw a better curveball. That’s my guess. But there’s a lack of adoption of good decision making on the field
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4:33 |
If I’m a starter facing my 30th batter I just throw 3 to the backstop and go “see?” and try to come back on the hitter…ok, no, no player would do that! |
4:34 |
: So, I’ve been thinking about this. If I was a relief ace, I would start warming up on my own all the time. Force the manager to bring you in with the optics of you being ready.
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4:34 |
Every year, the top prospects get asked about a lot. I don’t think Mookie is any different. (Anyone remember Taveras last year?) PLUS MOOKIE BETTS IS AWESOME!! |
4:34 |
: Going to be Mookvember.
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4:34 |
I love the fountains at the K. Such a unique ballpark element that makes for a great atmosphere to watch a game. The architectural style of the stadium is still very appealing considering when it was built. |
4:34 |
The biggest problem with the Cell (besides location) is that it’s so generic and dull. There is absolutely nothing remarkable about it. And yes, I know I’m behind the chat 😉 |
4:35 |
Yeah, maybe not throw–at least not hard–but get up and move around and stuff. |
4:36 |
“he’s the closer, he wouldn’t be ready to pitch.” “he was literally throwing all inning.” /blank stare “um….” |
4:36 |
Rangers: Discuss. |
4:36 |
: Hurt. Will be much better than people expect in 2015 because they will forget it’s a pretty decent roster
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4:36 |
People push for sabermetrics friendly coaches, but we also know managers have a far bigger impact in off the field matters and don’t matter much on the field. I doubt Dave Cameron or MGL would be a good managers. |
4:38 |
: I agree. The key is to get good personnel managers to use good strategy. I’m pretty sure MGL would get fired quickly, because while they would play optimal strategy, the players wouldn’t like him. The key is to get a beloved Jim Leyland who either learns the right strategy or listens to someone who knows it.
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4:38 |
The Rangers? They are a team in Texas. They play in a stadium that just this year got a corporate name. I believe they field 9 players in any given game, along with a DH. |
4:38 |
: That 9 players thing wasn’t a given this year
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4:38 |
Besides Oakland and Tampa (the only actual dumps left) and Atlanta (new ballpark already in works) what’s the next stadium to get a replacement? |
4:39 |
: Good question! Others are mostly really new or well established!
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4:39 |
Most people don’t understand that Oakland’s stadium was actually pretty nice until the 3rd deck was inserted. The view rivaled that of Chavez Ravine |
4:39 |
: Correct.
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4:40 |
Did you already catch up with the Catcher’s defense guy from last week and I missed it, or have you not gone over that yet? |
4:40 |
: There was a person who asked this question about DRS and why our columns don’t total up. He hasn’t come back though, so I don’t want to answer without him around 🙁
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4:40 |
The Nationals, and presumably some other teams, have a defensive alignment assistant. Will there ever be an in-game substitutions assistant somewhere |
4:41 |
: There should be. Manager should have a guy who can quickly assess the odds of every move. Even if the manager doens’t listen, he needs to hear it
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4:41 |
I’m pretty surprised Chris Davis isn’t on the O’s ALCS roster. Are they punishing him like the Giants did with Melky? |
4:41 |
: Only eligible for game 6/7. Not worth burning the roster spot for 1-5
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4:42 |
Ah, come on, some of us inquiring minds want to know. |
4:42 |
: Basically, in catcher DRS is also bunt runs saved and something like an adjusted earned runs thing. We don’t have columns for those, but they show up in the total!
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4:42 |
Do you have an ottoneu team? |
4:43 |
: I do. Was a rebuilding year, but I think the odds of finishing second to Dave in 2015.
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4:43 |
re warming up before asked to; I assume the coach would have a little chat with you after doing it a few times. |
4:43 |
: Pssshhh wouldn’t stop me.
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4:43 |
Will computers/tablet ever be allowed in the clubhouse? The new NFL program seems interesting and number crunching during the game could be fun. |
4:44 |
: Key problem so far is the sign stealing worries. You can’t have something that can show you the catcher’s fingers in real time. Otherwise, yeah. Totally
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4:44 |
It’s kinda weird how post-season suspensions work, right? Wouldn’t it make more sense to have each series count as 5/7 games against the suspension so guys coming back isn’t determined by how long series go? Players could make up the balance at the start of the next season. |
4:44 |
: A game is a game. You don’t get to shorten your suspension if a game gets rained out.
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4:45 |
sometimes I wonder if teams would be better off managing themselves. probably not, but I mean would Max Scherzer do a worse job, really? |
4:45 |
: I think about this all the time.
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4:45 |
Why hasn’t anyone calculated (or published?) postseason WAR or Win Shares. Seems to me like it would be an interesting study even for such small sample sizes. |
4:46 |
: We don’t have defensive numbers for the postseason, so we don’t do it. But I think we’re all generally in favor of the idea that we should count postseason numbers when looking at a player’s career
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4:46 |
: Alright, getting late! Should probably wrap this up. Catch me on Twitter if you;d like @neilweinberg44. Take care.
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Neil Weinberg is the Site Educator at FanGraphs and can be found writing enthusiastically about the Detroit Tigers at New English D. Follow and interact with him on Twitter @NeilWeinberg44.
AL Central might have the most disappointing ballparks in the bigs. Comerica is rather unremarkable. Progressive lacks ANY semblance of atmosphere around the park (yes that is a factor), Target field is new-ish but not very moving and the Cell is probably the worst park in the bigs. Your thoughts?
Target Field is awesome!