Neil Weinberg FanGraphs Q&A – 10/8/14

Neil Weinberg: Hi all. Queue is open and we’ll start at three. Basic reminder that this chat favors stat/FG/sabermetrics questions, but regular baseball stuff is cool too.

@NeilWeinberg44 is my Twitter handle if you want to get in touch another way.

Neil Weinberg: Alright, let’s discuss baseball and baseball stats. We could also pretend a baseball game happening, although that might get complicated.

Comment From Rob
Do you think Adam Eaton will consistently be a 4 to 5 WAR player, assuming he stays healthy?

Neil Weinberg: Was about a 3 WAR player in 538 PA this year, so he’d have to add 10-15 runs of value to do so. I think the 115-120 wRC+ range is about right, so he’d have to really start impressing the base running and defensive metrics. I think he’s good enough to do it in theory, but we’re talking about the stars all lining up. Expected a 2-3 WAR guy, be thrilled if he reaches that 4-5 WAR ceiling

Neil Weinberg: But I am generally fond of his skill set.

Comment From Jesse
Would a trade involving Jose Quintana and Mookie Betts make sense for both teams? The White Sox could potentially have Sale, Rodon,Danks and perhaps sign Shields or a lower tier guy like McCarthy.

Neil Weinberg: hmmm…this is interesting. Quintana is good pitcher on a very great contract, so he’s the type of pitcher who you’d consider in a deal like this. I think it’s JQ+something for Betts, but I don’t think it’s a crazy place to start.

Comment From Jacob
Who are some under-the-radar players(in fWAR and other stats) that their current teams are under-utilizing and would be likely breakout candidates if they were dealt?

Neil Weinberg: Craig Gentry is always my answer to this question. But let’s see…who else?

Neil Weinberg: Typically, my answer to this is going to be able really good defensive outfielders or catchers. Bourjos is another, but that kinda backfired this year

Comment From Steven
It is generally believed that the AL is better than the NL. One can confirm this by looking at interleague records over the past few years. Am I correct in saying that Fangraphs does not adjust for this in WAR/wRC+/etc. and the league adjustment is for DH or no DH purposes?

Neil Weinberg: Not really. So in WAR, we zero out both leagues so that each league has exactly 0.0 win above average. And wRC+ and other index stats are scaled to your specific league average, not MLB.

Comment From Ryan
The early steamer projection on Wilin Rosario… too optimistic? He looks like the 3rd best catcher next year if these projections come true.

Neil Weinberg: Doesn’t steamer just project 2013 Rosario with slightly better defense (2-3WAR)? What are you looking at?

Comment From Corry
Why all this chatter about Mookie Betts? Is there reason to suspect he may be available?

Neil Weinberg: Well the Red Sox have more players for next year than lineup spots, so someone is getting moved. Betts is probably the most desired piece by other orgs, so there will be lots of talk.

Comment From Guest
Please tell me Ben Cherington would not trade Mookie in a Hamels deal.

Neil Weinberg: I mean, it wouldn’t bet Hamels for Betts with no other stipulations. They could exist in the same trade if Philly added more or ate lots of money.

Comment From Ryan
We want a Rusney Castillo projection! Rabble! (also Melky Cabrera, Dustin Pedroia, Brett Lawrie, Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Homer Bailey, Masahiro Tanaka, Matt Cain, Kris Medlen, CC Sabathia, Patrick Corbin, Matt Moore, Michael Wacha, Jon Lester)

Neil Weinberg: Injured players are a little wacky right now because we have to shift the playing time over from 2014 to 2015. Will get updated!

Comment From John
Any chance FG can get rid of the annoying video ads that automatically play? Don’t mind FG making its money but video ads are the worst.

Neil Weinberg: These shouldn’t happen. If you see one, get a screenshot, make note of exactly when and where you saw it, and use the Contact form at the bottom of any page. If you get autoplay videos, let us know because they’re just slipping past our defenses like we’re a member of the Tigers outfield

Comment From BradO
Any particular reason FG doesn’t carry postseason data in the individual player game logs? Calendar won’t let you move past September. The data is on the player pages, just not game logs. Would be nice to get data for particular series rather than the whole postsean

Neil Weinberg: Yeah, I think the entire industry is just weird about postseason data. This would be solid to have

Comment From dude
enough with the mookie betts questions today.

Neil Weinberg: People want to talk about Mookie! Ask non-Mookie questions if you want non-Mookie answers!

Comment From Mark
When calculating RE24/9, do you need to make an AL/NL adjustment, or does (mlbR/mlbIP-RE24/IP)*9 work?

Neil Weinberg: Basically depends on what you want it to show. I typically just use a basic conversion to get a rough sense. So (Innings*0.46 – RE24)*9 / IP

Neil Weinberg: This is going to line up with a pretty standard RA9 type number, but we use different park adjustments for RE24 and like ERA-, so there’s not a clean way to make them identical. The method would be better if you went through and did it for each game rather than assuming the 0.46, but I’m usually just shooting for a quick estimate

Comment From anthropomorphic human
Going forward, how worried about the Tigers are you? It feels like they’re fading and have some big, ugly contracts about to kick in. In addition, they’re either losing important pieces or about to overpay to keep those pieces (mostly V-Mart).

Neil Weinberg: I think the Tigers are heading into an important offseason. Either they push in their chips for one last shot in 2015 or they should think about retooling. They have some contracts that will go south, but they also have a big payroll and aren’t totally prevented from spending more.

Neil Weinberg: You don’t like the idea of paying only JV and Cabrera, but they’re still looking at $120M for 23 roster spots. That’s not bad!

Comment From hscer
right now would you rather have 5 years of Rendon or 3 of Stanton

Comment From hscer
wait Stanton has 2 years left, never mind!

Neil Weinberg: Rendon!

Comment From Jacob
When building a team, would it be more beneficial to the team if a player’s WAR was from hitting or a combination of bat/glove?

Neil Weinberg: On balance, it doesn’t really matter. But it depends on the type of pitchers you have and depth and such.

Comment From Oscar
Neil, I’m interested in writing for Beyond the Boxscore. How can I become an author?

Neil Weinberg: I wonder if I’m allowed to answer this in a FG chat?! I’m going to. You should write a FanPost at BTBS or send samples to me or the other editors to demonstrate your abilities.

Comment From Beau
Who’s the most valuable out of Alcantra, Baez and Soler next season?

Neil Weinberg: Soler? Could reasonably be any of them.

Comment From Guest
Am i the only one who thinks the RedSox should just keep betts?

Neil Weinberg: Nope! Didn’t Dave write this same thing? Betts is valuable.

Comment From Lewis
The Tigers window… how close is it to shut?

Neil Weinberg: When you can spend $170M, it’s never totally shut. But I think they’re closing in on a do some reorganizing/take a year off type spot.

Comment From Guest
Would a 5/100 deal sign Pablo Sandoval? And would he likely post ~3WAR yearly average to make that a good contract?

Neil Weinberg: I think that would get it done. I think he probably gets something more like 4/65, to be honest. I think it’s a better bet that he’s 2-3 WAR for the next few years

Comment From Dom
I think we may get caught up a little too much in “trade value” and its emphasis on cost/control if people think that Stephen Strasburg is not enough to get Betts. The kid is young and Boagarts should be reminder of how things can pan out.

Neil Weinberg: You have to consider that Strasburg only has two years left on his deal. Fine if you want to attach some risk to Betts, but if Stras gets hurt in April and misses 5 months, a lot of his value is gone. Established players are also risky!

Comment From Tim
The 2015 AL Central Champion is ________, winning by ___ games

Neil Weinberg: Tigers, 2.

Comment From Rocco
Are you buying into Michael Brantley?

Neil Weinberg: Skeptical that all of the power is real. More like 4 WAR than 6.

Comment From Fronk
How do you compare the offence of NL teams to AL teams without including the pitchers?

Neil Weinberg: On our leaderboards, there is an “NP” tab in the positions row. Click it!

Comment From Beau
Believe the steamer projection for Bryant next year?

Neil Weinberg: Seems bullish, but not in a crazy way. I think projections are great, but I’m not sold we do a great job on young players and post-injury players. Bryant is great, but I’m not sure he’ll be that good that fast. We’ll see!

Comment From Dom
Is there any precedent for A-Rod’s situation, as in, a HoF caliber player takes an entire year off not because of injury and returns? Is it possible his health/performance will benefit from the time off?

Neil Weinberg: The guys who went to war. Go look at Ted Williams career page. I will wait. He was insane. I know people are tired of ARod, but I am fascinated by how he will play in 2015

Comment From Jacob
Matt Joyce is basically a player who benefits from power and a few timely streaks of good hitting, is that enough to overlook his questionable splits, his lack of sustainable power and abysmal defensive prowess? Do Rays benefit anything from keeping him another year?

Neil Weinberg: Joyce is one of those players who gets knocked for what he can’t do. Dude has been a 1.5+ WAR player every year in which he’s had any playing time. Just because he’s not a star doesn’t mean you don’t want that guy around.

Comment From Rocco
Do you know any programming languages, and if so, which do you find most useful?

Neil Weinberg: I’m not a very good programmer. It’s something I want to do in the long run. I know the fundamentals of R, HTML, CCS, but I still use Excel/Docs for most things. Might try to pick up another this year.

Comment From Steven
Follow up: Right so is it plausible that a 1.0 win player in the AL would actually be something like a 1.2 win player in the NL, since the player earned his stats playing against harder competition? Or is this adjusted for?

Neil Weinberg: It should basically even out with the adjustments. But those are estimates. In theory, we would like to control for specific opponents, but haven’t implemented that yet. So an NL starter has to have a better FIP to have the same WAR, all else equal, but there’s a lot more to it.

Comment From waldy
how is the difference in strength accounted for in FG’s iteration of WAR.

Neil Weinberg: Can you be more specific?

Comment From Dom
Do you see any reason to believe run scoring will make a comeback in the coming years?

Neil Weinberg: I would imagine that in a few years, maybe around 2018 or so, you’ll notice the strikezone shrink back to pre 2008 levels and we’ll magically get more offense!

Comment From Gila Monster
Do you think sites like Fangraphs suffer from sensationalism? I remember when Dave was driving the RA9-WAR bus and seemed to back off. A couple years ago when framing was new, everyone was on the Yadier Molina for MVP bandwagon. But Lucroy has had an better season than that and we are now suddenly more skeptical of how much credit a catcher should get.

Neil Weinberg: I think everyone has a recency bias. If you give me a new stat, I’m going to look at the world through those eyes for a while. But over time, the newness wears off and I just add it into my overall image of a player. Wouldn’t call it sensationalism, but we’re always fighting against putting too much emphasis on something right away

Comment From Corry
if you could project the final standings for the NL Central in 2015, what would it be?

Neil Weinberg: Well the teams will change their rosters, but: STL, CHC, PIT, CIN, MIL?

Comment From Jacob
Kolten Wong, Matt Adams or Oscar Taveras, who do you see becoming a Top 10 player in WAR at their position first?

Neil Weinberg: Adams? Think Taveras has the most potential but he’s got the hardest competition.

Comment From waldy
How is the difference in league strength accounted for in fangraph’s iteration of WAR? If I take someone with 4 WAR in the NL and he stays at 4 WAR in the AL?

Neil Weinberg: You should basically not see dramatic differences on average. Obviously, specific players will respond differently to a change, but we adjust for the difference in Batting Runs and the league adjustment. This is how we do WAR for position players http://www.fangraphs.com/li…

Comment From MAtt
What are the chances a player can change their batted ball profile? I really like Christian Yelich. His combination of discipline,power,speed, and left field defense reminds me a bit of Jayson Werth. But the power has been lacking and it is because he hits 61% Grounballs, next to Revere and Aoki…That doesn’t bode well for more power

Neil Weinberg: I don’t know exactly how often it happens, but plenty of guys do change their profiles. Usually means swing mechanics or something about which pitches they attack.

Comment From Beau
If the Tigers fall do you see the Royals as the long term leader in that division?

Neil Weinberg: I think you could make the case that all four teams have a pretty even outlook for the next 4-5 years. Might put my money on CWS.

Comment From hscer
The Yankees and Braves runs were insane, but St. Louis has made 11 of the last 15 postseasons, which seems less insane a goal for teams with money and smart FO’s. This is how I am coping with the Nats 2014 NLDS, but it could apply to Detroit too, I guess

Neil Weinberg: Consistent regular season success is a skill. Winning in the playoffs is just a thing that happens 🙁

Comment From Brades
Assume the Rockies are going in a different direction. Bogaerts and Betts for Tulowitzki and Brothers. Who says no?

Neil Weinberg: I don’t know…that’s a lot for Boston to give up, but Tulo is awesome and his contract isn’t bad. Guess it’s conditional on the medicals…

Comment From Guest
Do you think a team like the Red Sox has gotten cheap because they realize that money isn’t needed to win? They seem to be reluctant to spend and have “can they afford it” conversations while the the Yankees and Dodgers are spending like drunken sailors.

Neil Weinberg: I think teams are getting wise to the idea that you shouldn’t just sign a good player, you should sign the player that fits best. Cubs are a good example. They could have signed someone last winter, but there was no point. Why waste a year?

Comment From hscer
Do you know any foreign languages, and if so, which do you find most useful?

Neil Weinberg: I know a little German, and I was learning Spanish for a bit but life got in the way. Would like to get back to it.

Comment From Guest
It is a shame there is no Steamer projection for A-Rod. I bet it sees a 3 win player.

Neil Weinberg: It will show up eventually! Very early stages!

Comment From dude
Python all the way, baby!!!

Neil Weinberg: This one comes up a lot. Interested in trying.

Comment From Dylan
It is worth a note Strasburg will not be a National in 2017. Zero chance. Boras guy. That hurts his value to the Nationals.

Neil Weinberg: Money talks. If Nats want him to stay, he’ll stay. But he’s not someone who will sign a team friendly deal.

Comment From Mark
I’m thinking in terms of something like a RE24-WAR instead of RA9-WAR. Though maybe REW plus a replacement level adjustment would be better, or does that not really work with pitching WAR?

Neil Weinberg: Yeah, I would favor an RE24-WAR, but the problem is that for most pitchers it will be very close to their RA9-WAR, so the value added is pretty low relative to some other stats we could create. But for some pitchers, it’s a huge deal.

Comment From Jeff
If you were a GM this offseason, are there any guys you’d target in a trade that the fans would hate you for at first, but you think could become a solid starter? i.e. I think Hank Conger is bad, but what if he hit a bit?

Neil Weinberg: Gentry. I don’t think teams place enough value on amazing defensive players, so there would be a moment of “he hit what in 2014?” and then a moment of “omg he caught that?”

Comment From hscer
OT but awesome http://pnis.co/hard1.pdf

Neil Weinberg: Haha!

Comment From Dom
Do you think baseball would be better with more offense?

Neil Weinberg: I don’t mind low run scoring, but I think the average fan prefers it.

Comment From Guest
Chances of Joey Votto being the Yankee’s starting 1B in 2017?

Neil Weinberg: Doubt it. If you’re taking Votto’s contract, you want the 2014-2016 version of Votto to compensate for the later version that is less good.

Comment From Hurdle
The pirates finished a full 12 games ahead of the Cubs in the standings this season. Do you really anticipate the Cubs improving/Pirates regressing 12 games?! That is what you are suggesting when you rank CHC ahead of PIT in your NL Central projections.

Neil Weinberg: Pirates going to lose Martin, it seems like. Cubs going to get full seasons from a handful of prospects. Cubs more likely to sign big free agent. I don’t think it’s a crazy though to say the Pirates get 5 games worse and Cubs get 8-10 games better. But I thought about the other way.

Comment From Hurdle
*actually, the pirates were 15 games better than the cubs, 12 ahead of Cincy!

Neil Weinberg: RE: above comment

Comment From Rocco
Is “hard hit” % data publicly available anywhere?

Neil Weinberg: No. Mark Simon tweets about it a lot though.

Comment From Dom
Why is a context neutral stat such as WAR the starting point for an MVP discussion? I would think when talking about value of what has happened in the past, context is incredibly important. RBI isn’t as advanced as the other stats out there but I don’t think it should be ignored if it’s simply an MVP discussion, not a best player discussion.

Neil Weinberg: This is a value question. I personally don’t like to assign credit for when a player gets there hits, but it’s reasonable if you do. If you want something like RE24 instead of batting runs for the MVP discussion, that’s fine.

Comment From Hurdle
The entire Diamondbacks organization for Mookie Betts: who says no?

Neil Weinberg: Well without Gibson and KT….that might be okay… 🙂

Comment From Vslyke
Do you think the Braves could get a decent return for Chris Johnson? His D has improved somewhat and his contract isn’t onerous.

Neil Weinberg: No. Johnson isn’t a horrible player, but he makes 7-10 million right? He’s not worth more than that, so no one is giving up anything more than some meh player

Comment From Dom
In 3 years, who hits the ball farther, Harper or Stanton?

Neil Weinberg: I love this question. Harper, I think.

Comment From Jacob
Why do the Rockies seemingly get in their own way in both front office decisions and with organizational moves. Are they the most poorly run organization in baseball?

Neil Weinberg: I don’t know. But I’m fascinated by teams that do things a specific way consistently without any success. My guess is that ownership has a different set of goals and values that most of us think, so we see weird behaviors but they aren’t as worried about it? No idea. Probably better question for Paul.

Comment From Mark
On a mostly unrelated note, how’s this for depressing? 2014 Tigers bullpen: 447 IP, 0.6 WAR; sum of 11 former Tigers’ 2014 relief stats: 447.1 IP, 5.8 WAR.

Neil Weinberg: This is everything you need to know about the Tigers.

Comment From Guest
I don’t think that the Red Sox are cheap, I think that they realize the true contribution of PEDs was player longevity and multi-year high dollar investments in players in their 30s (ie most free agents) are no longer as succesful as they were a decade ago.

Neil Weinberg: I don’t think: not spending = cheap. I think that’s just what a lot of people say because they view the game differently.

You’ll notice, some writers are about winning right now and some writers are about winning consistently. If a team sits out a big free agent (think Cano), they aren’t committed…or they’re super smart! Different values.

Comment From Natitude Adjuster
I’d like to pretend game 5 of the NLCS is happening tomorrow. Let’s make that happen!

Neil Weinberg: Can Fister pitch?

Comment From Dom
I always thought Jeter’s “marquee value” was over-stated, but were you aware his last home game was the most watched game in YES Network history? They were mathematically eliminated at that point!

Neil Weinberg: Jeter is beloved.

Comment From Guest
What kind of return could Yoenis Cespedes bring in trade? Could a team like the Mariners trade from their pitching depth? Iwakuma is only signed for 2015 as well I believe.

Neil Weinberg: Cespedes probably brings back a similar player. Good not great on a short, reasonable deal.

Comment From Bertrum
How confident should I be as a Bucco fan that Polanco will take a step forward and push Snider into the 4th OF role next year?

Neil Weinberg: You’re never sure, but Polanco should be a regular in 2015.

Neil Weinberg: Alright, quick break. Throw up some more questions and I’ll keep going until they run out.

Comment From David
How are park factors calculated?

Neil Weinberg: http://www.fangraphs.com/li…

Basically, you compare how a team hit (and their opponents) to how well they hit on the road. We use 5 years of data. You can read the specifics if you follow that link. So basically, how did a team and their opponents hit at a park for the last five seasons relative to how they hit in the other parks.

Comment From David
what do you prefer, RA9 or ERA?

Neil Weinberg: RA9. ERA is only useful because it’s so common. If RA9 was on every website like ERA, I would never look at ERA.

Comment From Keith
AL Central might have the most disappointing ballparks in the bigs. Comerica is rather unremarkable. Progressive lacks ANY semblance of atmosphere around the park (yes that is a factor), Target field is new-ish but not very moving and the Cell is probably the worst park in the bigs. Your thoughts?

Neil Weinberg: I’m biased for Comerica, so whatever. But I’ve heard Target is great. I think Prog is fine and people like the K. I hate US Cellular. Agree that it’s the worst active park (that I’ve been to).

Comment From mtsw
Do you think teams should be more aggressive about modifying their home parks to fit their team compositions (say, moving in the RF porch if your team has strong lefty pull hitters?)

Neil Weinberg: No, because you can’t change the park every year and your team is going to change a lot. I think you have to commit to a style and go with it. I would, however, want LF and RF to play evenly.

Comment From David
What stat is next up on Friday?

Neil Weinberg: I don’t know! Any requests? Usually decide on Wednesday after the chat.

Comment From Douglas
As a Royals fans: What do you think it would cost for Votto if they decided to let Butler fully walk and let Votto DH?

Neil Weinberg: Very interesting, because Votto is a great player who is paid a lot of money. Those are hard guys to trade because there’s so much name value, but also, guys who make sense to deal if you want to rebuild. Gosh, I don’t know.

Comment From Guest
Is a stress fracture in a foot/ankle a worrying injury for a young player or is that the type of injury that usually heals fully? Asking since Rafael Devers suffered one today but since he is only 17 immediacy isn’t an issue, I just know in basketball stress fractures on feet can kill talented young players careers.

Neil Weinberg: I know a little about this from following Iglesias’ injury, but I’m given to understand from the medical people I heard from, that if you allow them to properly heal it isn’t necessarily a problem. But that might also vary. You never want to see an injury like that, but it’s not a death sentence.

Comment From Hernan
Instead of altering your park to fit your players… why don’t you just build your roster with some element of park in mind?

Neil Weinberg: Most teams do, I think. But it’s hard because there’s only a finite number of available players at one time.

Comment From mtsw
US Cellular is an especially disspiriting park because one of the rejected designs (Armour Field) had a very progressive design and would’ve probably have become a classic park along the lines of OPACY http://www.thursdayassociat…

Neil Weinberg: No offense to anyone who likes it, but I found the Cell to be super duper depressing. My wife and I always joke about them serving Digorno pizza too. Frozen pizza!

Comment From mtsw
If you pushed your home park’s fences back to 500 feet and then built your team around that, could you win 70 games/season at home with a league average payroll?

Neil Weinberg: I don’t think so.

Comment From Sandy Kaz
Reasonable returns for Joyce and/or Zobrist?

Neil Weinberg: Zobrist could net you a non-elite, but very good prospect. Joyce, probably someone with a non-starter MLB future with some upside? I’m bad at prospects, though.

Comment From hscer
Gosh if the fences were 500 feet an outfield seat would be worth like $2

Neil Weinberg: I would like to see what baseball would look like in weird parks.

Comment From Guest
What makes KC’s UBR the worst in baseball?

Neil Weinberg: They have some very horrible base runners and some very good ones. The -10 for Aoki is a bit strange, but everything else lines up with my expectations. Remember this is non-SB stuff

Comment From Mike
Which WS possibility would be the most competitive, or most likely to go 7 games

Neil Weinberg: O’s Cards? I have no idea. Going with that.

Comment From Brad
What made you a Tigers fan?

Neil Weinberg: Grew up in Toledo and my dad grew up in Detroit.

Comment From mtsw
While we’re talking about parks: Why don’t MLB teams insist their minor league affiliates set their fences (when possible) to match the dimensions of the major league stadium?

Neil Weinberg: Right? There’s another problem with this though, it’s not just about dimensions. It’s about the weather and the atmosphere. Coors and Petco don’t play extreme because of the dimensions, it’s largely about the air. Can’t fake that. But teams should kind of think about this.

Comment From Guest
Is there any chance that the Marlins make a play in free agency? They seem pretty close, with Fernandez returning around mid season, some bullpen upgrades and fixing the infield could have them right there, and they did spend money before trading it away 3 years ago.

Neil Weinberg: You never know, this seems like a year they’re spend, but can you imagine a player signing a long term deal with them ever?

Comment From hscer
Isn’t the average length of time a specific minor league team is affiliated with a specific major league team too short for the big league club to insist on a similar park?

Neil Weinberg: Well you wouldnt get them to change the structure, just the fence dimensions. Maybe that’s more expensive than it seems.

Comment From Guest
Why don’t the red sox have any desire to move betts to 3B? he came up as a SS and it would 1. plug a huge hole in 3B and 2. Free up the playing time situation in the OF

Neil Weinberg: I have heard this floated, and that they just aren’t saying anything to avoid tanking WMB’s trade value?

Comment From mtsw
Well, if you want to talk about weather, I’m also always baffled as to why teams don’t insist the AAA club is close by and in similar climate (and near busy airport). Forcing a player to fly 2000 miles for every call-up/send-down seems like an enormous hassle for your talent. I know there are business concerns with affiliations but still…

Neil Weinberg: Teams prefer this, just isn’t always possible. Tigers have affiliates close by and near their spring training facility (also one in CT). But there’s never going to be perfect alignment as long as the affiliates have some control.

Comment From Joe
Is Mookie Betts the most hyped prospect since Harper? Every other question on every Fangraphs chat is about him.

Neil Weinberg: 1) Betts is a prospect and he’s interesting because he might be traded! 2) Overhyped? Harper is one of the best players ever for such a young age.

Comment From Brad
Do you believe in MGL’s times through order penalty. it seems rock solid, but why don’t managers know anything about it?

Neil Weinberg: Yes. Managers don’t know lots of things. Also, managers can’t bring themselves to accept that something that doesn’t look like it’s happening is happening. Pitcher is throwing well means pitcher is throwing well to a manager. They can’t break the conditioning.

Comment From Joe
Didn’t say overhyped for Harper, just that people are freaking out about Betts.

Neil Weinberg: He’s interesting! I don’t think over-hyped and talking about are the same thing.

Comment From Dylan
Betts at 3rd is what? Matt Carpenter?

Neil Weinberg: I think that’s what you hope. Although we’re not really sure about Carp’s true power. Great approach and all, but there’s some uncertainty still about exactly what kind of player he is

Comment From mtsw
Betts for Dylan Bundy. Who says no?

Neil Weinberg: Sox.

Comment From Guest
Is the time though the order penalty “equal”? I imagine a fastball/ slider guy suffers more than a Kershaw type with several elite pitches in the arsenal

Neil Weinberg: Everyone suffers, but better pitchers are working from a better baseline. So Kershaw is worse 3rd and 4th time through, but 3rd time through Kershaw is still a good pitcher.

Comment From hscer
If you could just get a manager to realize “hey their 4 best hitters are coming up for a 4th time, maybe they shouldn’t see the same stuff from a tired pitcher”

Neil Weinberg: Managers also don’t want to pull a starter who is doing well. They just don’t, even if you can predict he’s about to falter.

Comment From Brad
do you know of any coaches or would be managers that are coming through system who have working knowledge of sabermetrics? I don’t understand why management isn’t insisting on it.

Neil Weinberg: There are plenty, but I think it comes down to the fact that most coaches are employed to helps players with their skills. So a pitching coach doesn’t need to know FIP as much as he needs to know how to help you throw a better curveball. That’s my guess. But there’s a lack of adoption of good decision making on the field

Comment From hscer
If I’m a starter facing my 30th batter I just throw 3 to the backstop and go “see?” and try to come back on the hitter…ok, no, no player would do that!

Neil Weinberg: So, I’ve been thinking about this. If I was a relief ace, I would start warming up on my own all the time. Force the manager to bring you in with the optics of you being ready.

Comment From More Mookie, Please
Every year, the top prospects get asked about a lot. I don’t think Mookie is any different. (Anyone remember Taveras last year?) PLUS MOOKIE BETTS IS AWESOME!!

Neil Weinberg: Going to be Mookvember.

Comment From Sam
I love the fountains at the K. Such a unique ballpark element that makes for a great atmosphere to watch a game. The architectural style of the stadium is still very appealing considering when it was built.

Comment From Stanatee the Manatee
The biggest problem with the Cell (besides location) is that it’s so generic and dull. There is absolutely nothing remarkable about it. And yes, I know I’m behind the chat 😉

Comment From hscer
Yeah, maybe not throw–at least not hard–but get up and move around and stuff.

Neil Weinberg: “why didn’t you use kimbrel?”

“he’s the closer, he wouldn’t be ready to pitch.”

“he was literally throwing all inning.”

/blank stare

“um….”

Comment From Rawson
Rangers: Discuss.

Neil Weinberg: Hurt. Will be much better than people expect in 2015 because they will forget it’s a pretty decent roster

Comment From Guest
People push for sabermetrics friendly coaches, but we also know managers have a far bigger impact in off the field matters and don’t matter much on the field. I doubt Dave Cameron or MGL would be a good managers.

Neil Weinberg: I agree. The key is to get good personnel managers to use good strategy. I’m pretty sure MGL would get fired quickly, because while they would play optimal strategy, the players wouldn’t like him. The key is to get a beloved Jim Leyland who either learns the right strategy or listens to someone who knows it.

Comment From hscer
The Rangers? They are a team in Texas. They play in a stadium that just this year got a corporate name. I believe they field 9 players in any given game, along with a DH.

Neil Weinberg: That 9 players thing wasn’t a given this year

Comment From mtsw
Besides Oakland and Tampa (the only actual dumps left) and Atlanta (new ballpark already in works) what’s the next stadium to get a replacement?

Neil Weinberg: Good question! Others are mostly really new or well established!

Comment From Pat
Most people don’t understand that Oakland’s stadium was actually pretty nice until the 3rd deck was inserted. The view rivaled that of Chavez Ravine

Neil Weinberg: Correct.

Comment From Bill
Did you already catch up with the Catcher’s defense guy from last week and I missed it, or have you not gone over that yet?

Neil Weinberg: There was a person who asked this question about DRS and why our columns don’t total up. He hasn’t come back though, so I don’t want to answer without him around 🙁

Comment From hscer
The Nationals, and presumably some other teams, have a defensive alignment assistant. Will there ever be an in-game substitutions assistant somewhere

Neil Weinberg: There should be. Manager should have a guy who can quickly assess the odds of every move. Even if the manager doens’t listen, he needs to hear it

Comment From Matt
I’m pretty surprised Chris Davis isn’t on the O’s ALCS roster. Are they punishing him like the Giants did with Melky?

Neil Weinberg: Only eligible for game 6/7. Not worth burning the roster spot for 1-5

Comment From Bill
Ah, come on, some of us inquiring minds want to know.

Neil Weinberg: Basically, in catcher DRS is also bunt runs saved and something like an adjusted earned runs thing. We don’t have columns for those, but they show up in the total!

Comment From Pat
Do you have an ottoneu team?

Neil Weinberg: I do. Was a rebuilding year, but I think the odds of finishing second to Dave in 2015.

Comment From Mariano 4eva
re warming up before asked to; I assume the coach would have a little chat with you after doing it a few times.

Neil Weinberg: Pssshhh wouldn’t stop me.

Comment From Gila Monster
Will computers/tablet ever be allowed in the clubhouse? The new NFL program seems interesting and number crunching during the game could be fun.

Neil Weinberg: Key problem so far is the sign stealing worries. You can’t have something that can show you the catcher’s fingers in real time. Otherwise, yeah. Totally

Comment From mtsw
It’s kinda weird how post-season suspensions work, right? Wouldn’t it make more sense to have each series count as 5/7 games against the suspension so guys coming back isn’t determined by how long series go? Players could make up the balance at the start of the next season.

Neil Weinberg: A game is a game. You don’t get to shorten your suspension if a game gets rained out.

Comment From Guest
sometimes I wonder if teams would be better off managing themselves. probably not, but I mean would Max Scherzer do a worse job, really?

Neil Weinberg: I think about this all the time.

Comment From Bill
Why hasn’t anyone calculated (or published?) postseason WAR or Win Shares. Seems to me like it would be an interesting study even for such small sample sizes.

Neil Weinberg: We don’t have defensive numbers for the postseason, so we don’t do it. But I think we’re all generally in favor of the idea that we should count postseason numbers when looking at a player’s career

Neil Weinberg: Alright, getting late! Should probably wrap this up. Catch me on Twitter if you;d like @neilweinberg44. Take care.