NERD Game Scores for May 31, 2017
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.
How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.
Most Highly Rated Game
Milwaukee at New York NL | 19:10 ET
Guerra (8.2 IP, 98 xFIP-) vs. deGrom (64.0 IP, 68 xFIP-)
Because the author himself wasn’t aware, it’s possible that at least one reader isn’t currently aware of how good Jacob deGrom has been so far this season — in particular at missing bats. Among the league’s 92 qualified pitchers, he’s recorded the second-lowest contact rate (68.1%), the fourth-highest swinging-strike rate (15.3%), and the third-highest overall strikeout rate (32.2%). There’s obviously quite a lot of interaction between those metrics; in each case, however, one is forced to reach the conclusion that Jacob deGrom is missing a lot of bats.
By what means is he doing it? Largely by recording much higher whiff rates on every pitch. Regard, deGrom’s repertoire from 2016 versus the current season (data care of Brooks Baseball):
| Pitch Type | 2016 Count | 2016 Wiffs | 2017 Count | 2017 Whiffs | Whiff Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fourseam | 989 | 12.3% | 444 | 18.2% | 5.9% |
| Sinker | 412 | 5.6% | 151 | 11.9% | 6.3% |
| Change | 261 | 21.8% | 93 | 20.4% | -1.4% |
| Slider | 434 | 12.9% | 268 | 16.4% | 3.5% |
| Curve | 254 | 10.6% | 84 | 14.3% | 3.7% |
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio or New York NL TV.
Another Brief Note
Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game hadn’t been announced as of press time. That said, it can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text when available.
Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and also sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and the rest of the internet. Note that calculations both for team and game NERD scores feature adjustment for postseason odds that increases as season progresses. Read more about those adjustments here and here.
| Away | SP | TM | GM | TM | SP | Home | Time | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Godley | AZ | 8 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 6 | PIT | Chad Kuhl | 12:35 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 4 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | TOR | Mike Bolsinger | 12:37 |
| David Paulino* | HOU | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 1 | MIN | Hector Santiago | 13:10 |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 7 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | MIA | Dan Straily | 13:10 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHN | 7 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 10 | SD | Luis Perdomo | 15:40 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | CLE | Mike Clevinger | 18:10 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYA | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 4 | BAL | Kevin Gausman | 19:05 |
| Junior Guerra* | MIL | 8 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 10 | NYN | Jacob deGrom | 19:10 |
| Chris Archer | TB | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | TEX | Austin Bibens-Dirkx* | 20:05 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 7 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | CHA | Mike Pelfrey | 20:10 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | KC | Ian Kennedy | 20:15 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LAN | 5 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 10 | STL | Carlos Martinez | 20:15 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | LAA | Jesse Chavez | 22:07 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 5 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 10 | SEA | James Paxton | 22:10 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | SF | Matt Cain | 22:15 |
TM denotes team score.
GM denotes overall game score.
Highlighted portion denotes game of the day.
* = Fewer than 10 IP, NERD at discretion of doomed author.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Just noticed the author has gone from “very handsome” to “doomed” in this year’s footnoted cautions.
Age catches up with us all…
Smiling Bartolo Colon.png