NERD Game Scores for September 18, 2016

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
St. Louis at San Francisco | 16:05 ET
Reyes (28.0 IP, 95 xFIP-) vs. Suarez (75.0 IP, 109 xFIP-)
St. Louis’s wild-card odds have declined by nearly 20 points since Thursday, an interval which accounts for the first three games of their series against San Francisco in the latter’s ballpark. The results could have been worse: had they not won last night, the loss in wild-card probability would likely have amounted to roughly 30 points.

Regard:

Wild-Card Odds, Cardinals and Giants
Event STL WC% Change SFG WC% Change
Before Series 52.1% 67.3%
After Game 1 43.3% -8.8 72.4% +5.1
After Game 2 28.1% -15.2 79.6% +7.2
After Game 3 34.3% +6.2 74.7% -4.9
Total -17.8 +7.4

The endeavor has become more difficult in the meantime, as well, with the recent success of the Mets — rendering a win today even more consequential.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio or Television.

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One Other Brief Note
Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features Minnesota at New York NL, starts at 13:10 ET, and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.

Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and also the rest of the internet. Note that calculations both for team and game NERD scores feature adjustment for postseason odds that increases as season progresses. Read more about those adjustments here and here.

NERD Scores for September 18, 2016
Away SP TM GM TM SP Home Time
Daniel Norris DET 8 5 5 4 6 CLE Trevor Bauer 13:10
Kyle Gibson MIN 4 4 5 6 4 NYN Gabriel Ynoa* 13:10
Ivan Nova PIT 7 4 4 4 3 CIN Dan Straily 13:10
Andrew Cashner MIA 4 4 4 4 1 PHI Alec Asher 13:35
Jake Odorizzi TB 5 4 6 9 7 BAL Wade Miley 13:35
Joe Ross WAS 7 4 5 4 5 ATL Matt Wisler 13:35
Jose Quintana CHA 5 4 5 4 8 KC Danny Duffy 14:15
Wily Peralta MIL 6 4 5 4 8 CHN Kyle Hendricks 14:20
Ross Detwiler OAK 3 4 4 4 4 TEX Colby Lewis 15:05
Marcus Stroman TOR 10 9 7 4 6 LAA Alex Meyer* 15:35
Alex Reyes STL 8 7 7 7 4 SF Albert Suarez 16:05
Doug Fister HOU 3 6 5 5 3 SEA Ariel Miranda 16:10
Jose De Leon LAN 8 5 6 4 10 AZ Robbie Ray 16:10
Jarred Cosart SD 2 4 4 4 5 COL Chad Bettis 16:10
CC Sabathia NYA 4 5 6 9 6 BOS Drew Pomeranz 20:08
SP denotes pitcher NERD score.
TM denotes team score.
GM denotes overall game score.
Highlighted portion denotes game of the day.

* = Fewer than 10 IP, NERD at discretion of clueless author.





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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