NERD Game Scores for Thursday, July 28, 2016

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
St. Louis at Miami | 19:10 ET
Wacha (115.1 IP, 97 xFIP-) vs. Fernandez (120.2 IP, 56 xFIP-)
Probably an irresponsible way to evaluate a pitcher is to cite his WAR per games started. The author cites it here, however, as an attempt to answer a question poorly. The question: at what point is someone likely to tie and/or pass the injured Clayton Kershaw on the WAR pitching leaderboard. The answer: probably mid-August.

First, regard:

Those are the top-five qualified pitchers this year by WAR per game started. As noted, only the data from starts has been considered. Although, it doesn’t really matter: this is basically identical to the top-five pitchers by WAR without any additional criteria. It appears here, however, to provide a sense of how many more starts a pitcher might need — how many Jose Fernandez, in particular, might need — to catch Kershaw.

Fortunately, the math is pretty simple. Fernandez sits roughly a win behind Kershaw and produces roughly a quarter win per start. So, “four starts” would appear to be the answer. Accounting for today’s start and assuming that Fernandez appears for Miami every fifth day, he’s likely to have tied Kershaw following his start against the White Sox on Friday, August 12th. If Miami preserves a five-man rotation through a couple days off, Fernandez is still likely to appear in that White Sox series, just a day or two later.

Reason, is what has been exhibited here. But reason in the most frightening quantity.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: St. Louis Radio.

One Other Lone, Brief Note
Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features the same Cardinal and Marlin clubs cited above and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.

Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and also the rest of the internet. Note that calculations both for team and game NERD scores feature adjustment for postseason odds that increases as season progresses. Read more about those adjustments here and here.