NL Wild Card Game Live Blog

6:36

Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

Jeff Sullivan and myself will be here with you all night long, if last night is any indication. So come fill up the queue with warmup questions, and we’ll chat the night away. I will make an effort to be in here before the game starts, but I can only guarantee I’ll be here for first pitch.

See you soon!

7:59	Paul Swydan: One minute guys. Literally just searching for the remote.

8:01	Paul Swydan: OK, mercifully found it between two pillows. One more sec, setting up polls.

8:02	Paul Swydan: Another amazing game!

8:02	Paul Swydan: Giants

8:02	Paul Swydan: Giants

8:03	Jeff Sullivan: I also had lost my remote!

8:03	Paul Swydan: OK, three polls up.

8:03	Jeff Sullivan: I intentionally hid it from myself last night because I was tired of the television. I didn’t know that worked

8:04	Paul Swydan: Hey if you guys didn’t read Jeff’s piece on Jarrod Dyson, you should do that now-ish.

8:04	Comment From Jack Z Predictions?

8:04	Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t do it now, there’s a new game starting!

8:04	Paul Swydan: I’ll say 5-3 Pirates.

8:04	Jeff Sullivan: oh what the hell, 7-2 Giants

8:05	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know what the point of predictions is but I’m feeling a bummer of a game after yesterday

8:05	Comment From Ruki Prediction: 4-2, Giants

8:05	Comment From Lyle 1-0 Giants

8:05	Comment From Pennsy PNC Park: Best stadium in the playoffs, or best stadium any time?

8:05	Paul Swydan: I don’t know, I still haven’t been. Sad face.

8:06	Comment From Mr. T My prediction…. Pain!

8:06	Comment From Guest Giants 4 – 1

8:06	Comment From benjamin 4-2 buccos

8:06	Comment From zmiko 3-2 Pirates

8:06	Comment From Jaack Prediction: Barry Bonds’ team wins.

8:07	Comment From Seth F 4-2 Giants

8:07	Jeff Sullivan: A year ago, the Pirates’ crowd was loud and charming and awesome. Now, not only do we know about them, but the Royals are the new kids. Going to be hard to top the noise we heard yesterday

8:08	Paul Swydan: I’m a little disappointed the Pirates are in alternate unis. I get that they’re trying to do a blackout tonight, but they’re called ALTERNATE unis for a reason.

8:08	Jeff Sullivan: I am always such a sucker for color-coordinated stadium crowds, except when it’s white

8:09	Paul Swydan: Agreed.

8:09	Jeff Sullivan: Black towels/pom poms? Stupid

8:09	Jeff Sullivan: NO ONE CAN SEE YOU

8:09	Paul Swydan: And, at first blush, it looks like this Pirates crowd did a heck of a job.

8:09	Paul Swydan: With the all black, that is.

8:09	Comment From James S You’re a bitter old man Jeff

8:09	Jeff Sullivan: Nobody can see black! Or dark red

8:10	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not striking! That’s the point!

8:10	Comment From NickS Should be black shirts and yellow towels

8:10	Comment From Guest How many people are in the chat right now?

8:10	Paul Swydan: I agree that a yellow out would have been cooler, but perhaps it is jarring to the players nonetheless? Can you imagine even asking a player that with a straight face though? I can’t.

8:10	Jeff Sullivan: It ain’t yesterday, that’s for damned sure

8:11	Jeff Sullivan: Players have to respond to Eno with a straight face

8:11	Jeff Sullivan: Relevant fun fact: PNC is an underrated pitcher-friendly environment

8:11	Paul Swydan: Heinz getting that face time right from the start. Already a good night for them!

8:11	Comment From Matts Obviously on any given day you’d want to put your best starter out there, but really how much of an impact would Cole have instead of Volquez? One game is kinda random anyway.

8:12	Jeff Sullivan: Gregor Blanco seems to feel like he should’ve homered. Does he know what a homer feels like off the bat?

8:12	Jeff Sullivan: MVP out to sliding MVP

8:12	Paul Swydan: I agree with you Matts, I didn’t see the harm in starting Cole on Sunday.

8:13	Paul Swydan: That was cool.

8:13	Comment From Compton Is it just me, or is this center field camera angle dreadful? ROOT Sports Pittsburgh has the best center field camera in the league, why does ESPN’s suck?

8:13	Jeff Sullivan: Rule of thumb: unless you’re talking about real aces or real nightmares, there’s not an enormous swing in winning odds by pitcher identity, especially with the bullpens looming sooner than usual

8:13	Paul Swydan: Simple answer – ROOT might not share. I imagine they’re still taping the game.

8:14	Comment From Kimball Giants radio color culling from Jeff’s piece on Pirates pitching inside

8:14	Jeff Sullivan: In fairness, people have known about that strategy for a while

8:14	Paul Swydan: Now that’s cool.

8:14	Comment From Human person When did Boch flip-flop Posey and Sandoval? Was it midway thru this year? I remember Posey hitting cleanup until fairly recently

8:14	Jeff Sullivan: I like distinct team strategies. Bummer to have Oakland out because of that, but the Royals have one of their own I suppose

8:15	Paul Swydan: Posey has essentially been hitting 3rd all season. http://www.baseball-referen…

8:15	Comment From NickS Jeff, I feel like PNC is the most well-known underrated pitcher’s park.

8:15	Jeff Sullivan: Still hipster, but almost too well-recognized to be hipster!

8:15	Paul Swydan: It looks like Posey hit 4th for like a week before the All-Star break.

8:15	Jeff Sullivan: PNC Park’s pitcher-friendliness is the Decemberists

8:16	Comment From Julian Your pick for surprise star of the game?

8:16	Paul Swydan: I will say Gaby Sanchez!

8:16	Jeff Sullivan: Edinson Volquez

8:16	Jeff Sullivan: Now my predictions don’t match anymore

8:16	Jeff Sullivan: Whatever, no one’s checking continuity

8:16	Paul Swydan: That’s why it’d be a surprise tho.

8:16

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Russell Martin seems like an obvious choice for the Cubs. ON Monday, Theo Epstein mentioned that they expect to contend for the division title in 2015 and a 3 or 4 year deal with Martin seems to fit their plan (as well as he being their type of player – high OB% and good defense).

8:17	Paul Swydan: Pirates recently said they’d go to the mattresses to keep him. Bottom line – Martin makes sense for like half the teams in the league. I had him in the Rockies’ blueprint for 2015 when I wrote that up last month too.

8:18	Jeff Sullivan: but I like that they’re still trying to us Rosario

8:18	Jeff Sullivan: it’s funny for gifs

8:18	Comment From Tucker Does Volquez have the lowest regular season WAR among any “play-in” game starter?

8:18	Paul Swydan: I defended Rosario for a long time, but, it’s not working.

8:18	Jeff Sullivan: He’s lower than 2012 Joe Saunders, but I’m not sure he’s actually worse than 2012 Joe Saunders

8:18	Paul Swydan: I was just going to say Joe Saunders!

8:19	Comment From Jon Does anybody like it when they look behind the hitter when the pitch is coming?

8:19	Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely no one, it’s done to infuriate

8:19	Jeff Sullivan: It does succeed in allowing us to more often appreciate the normal view

8:19	Paul Swydan: Yeah. That view should be for still photos only.

8:19	Jeff Sullivan: And even then it’s like “why is this a photo”

8:20	Comment From Tucker Jeff, what is your X factor for this game? You were both right and wrong last night if I remember correctly

8:20	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t really have one in the same kind of way but I think if the Pirates are super aggressive with their bullpen they can get the pitching edge in this game by the fourth or the fifth inning

8:21	Jeff Sullivan: They have to know better than to try to push Volquez, and I think they do

8:21	Comment From Park Chan hos Beard will the a’s always be doomed in the postseason with their strategy of acquiring underrated uppercut swingers? i understand it’s a decision born from financial constraints, but isn’t it easily exploitable with high heat?

8:21	Jeff Sullivan: 8 runs yesterday. We wouldn’t be talking about this if it weren’t for the run prevention

8:21	Jeff Sullivan: But it’s like, in retrospect, no wonder the Tigers shut them down

8:22	Jeff Sullivan: Mike Trout is easily exploitable with high heat, and he was worth 8 WAR

8:22	Paul Swydan: Also, Moss mashed at least one of his homers off a high fastball, so…

8:22	Jeff Sullivan: I think they were both low

8:22	Paul Swydan: I thought the second one was high. But I am frequently wrong.

8:22	Jeff Sullivan: Definitely low, after two high fastballs were taken

8:23	Comment From Santiago Has the Pirates defense really been that bad?(by the numbers) I can’t believe it

8:23	Jeff Sullivan: Doubt it. Numbers don’t know what to do with shifting

8:23	Comment From Nick Ohhhh Jeff 1 Paul 0

8:23	Jeff Sullivan: Big insight from Curt Schilling, when Volquez struggles it’s because he’s missing his spots

8:23	Paul Swydan: Add a couple zeroes to Jeff’s side!

8:24	Comment From Brandon Pedro Alvarez is responsible for a good chunk of those bad defensive numbers

8:24	Comment From Steve O Random, but what is the best minor league team name?

8:24	Jeff Sullivan: Volcanoes

8:24	Comment From Guest FG should do a live podcast during these games to spare us all from listening to the national announcers

8:24	Jeff Sullivan: We talked about this yesterday — it’s illegal

8:24	Paul Swydan: Biscuits

8:25	Comment From David Do you guys consider Bumgarner an Ace?

8:25	Jeff Sullivan: He’s about at my threshold. Hard to separate him from his league and park

8:25	Paul Swydan: Very much illegal! But appreciate the sentiment. I lobbied for Cameron to be the color guy on FOX when we signed with them this year!

8:25	Paul Swydan: Yeah, he’s 1A for me. I want him to be a #1, but Bochy ends up needing to lift him in the 5th inning more than a couple times a year.

8:26	Jeff Sullivan: John Kruk analyzing the shift, that’s exactly what we need

8:26	Comment From Glen is it illegal to talk about the game without doing a play by play?

8:27	Paul Swydan: I’m not sure we could successfully pull off talking about a game without talking about a game.

8:27	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know exactly why this is allowed but that isn’t, but, that isn’t

8:27	Paul Swydan: Oh, Josh!

8:28	Jeff Sullivan: How often does a player get an ovation from the home crowd after not making a catch?

8:28	Paul Swydan: Hit the heel of the glove. He’s so good he ran a hair past the ball. Rough.

8:28	Comment From Jamie I am not sure Kruk talking at all is what we need

8:28	Paul Swydan: Alright, I suppose I should own up to this now – I like John Kruk. There, i said it.

8:29	Jeff Sullivan: I like when I remember that I can tune these people out

8:29	Jeff Sullivan: Then I don’t mind them

8:29	Paul Swydan: I feel like while he doesn’t know everything about everything, he does keep an open mind about stuff.

8:29	Comment From Adam The TBS crew makes Kruk sound like Vin Scully

8:29	Paul Swydan: Also that.

8:29	Jeff Sullivan: Martin calling for the high fastball

8:30	Jeff Sullivan: Overthrown, but, welcome to baseball, adjusting to baseball

8:30	Comment From Cole Do you see either of these teams being able to defeat the Nationals?

8:30	Jeff Sullivan: Sure, why not?

8:30	Comment From Guest Good god, I actually measured the parallax on this camera angle and it’s about 30 degrees left of dead center.. so coming from further left than the LF plays

8:30	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I don’t think the Nationals are an invincible juggernaut.

8:31	Comment From Guest Is Joe Flacco elite?

8:31	Jeff Sullivan: Best Flacco I know

8:31	Jeff Sullivan: Can’t believe Volquez walked a guy

8:31	Comment From Guest I love how they switch to the camera angle that doesn’t suck on any close pitch

8:31	Paul Swydan: Yeah that’s weird.

8:32	Comment From semperty Last year I cheered for the Pirates a lot. This year their fans have made me dislike them more than almost any team in the postseason. I also don’t want San Fran to win another title. Any chance the A’s can momentarily join the NL?

8:32	Jeff Sullivan: Fresh teams are really exciting and fun, the first time

8:32	Paul Swydan: Yup. Like how you all rooted for the Red Sox in 03 and 04 and then immediately turned on us. Not cool, you guys. Not cool.

8:32	Jeff Sullivan: What a disaster

8:32	Jeff Sullivan: YOU turned on us

8:33	Jeff Sullivan: Can’t believe Michael Morse is injured

8:33	Paul Swydan: Hey it wasn’t my idea to make Schilling the closer.

8:33	Comment From Gina Paul, We need to get the jitters out lol

8:33	Comment From mg So who is the least fresh playoff team in 2014? Tigers? Cards?

8:33	Jeff Sullivan: Cards

8:33	Paul Swydan: Cardinals. I’m so done with them.

8:33	Jeff Sullivan: Man the Cardinals are dull for a team that isn’t dull

8:34	Paul Swydan: And I just know we’re in for a week of small market vs big market. Just kill me now.

8:34	Jeff Sullivan: If it has to be the Cards, then I want Cards/Royals

8:34	Comment From Tucker The Spurs of baseball–I root against both for no real reason other than “staleness.”

8:34	Paul Swydan: Yes, I said the same thing on Monday, Jeff. Cards/Royals would be fun.

8:35	Comment From Brad Paul, why do you despise the cards so much?

8:35	Jeff Sullivan: Can’t believe Ishikawa made an out

8:35	Paul Swydan: I don’t despise them so much as they’re just super boring to me.

8:35	Comment From Fletch Boy is Dan Schulman an upgrade over last night’s Ernie Johnson.

8:36	Paul Swydan: The silver lining is it’s a chance to read more Derrick Goold. And they do have Matt Holliday, who I will always love. But I still am just burnt out on the Cardinals.

8:36	Jeff Sullivan: Was re-watching the highlight of Moss’ second home run. Did Johnson even notice?

8:36	Comment From Park Chan hos Beard how pissed do you think billy beane is at bob melvin?

8:37	Paul Swydan: Not very. I don’t think Melvin cost them the game.

8:37	Paul Swydan: And yeah, sorry, that wasn’t a high fastball on Moss’ second homer. I’m an idiot.

8:37	Comment From Billy Agreed, its baffling to me that Ernie Johnson is the main play by play for any network.

8:38	Paul Swydan: Ernie knows basketball. Very well, actually. But TBS’ lack of willingness to find another lead man for baseball, in their 8th year of baseball coverage, is baffling.

8:38	Jeff Sullivan: Ernie Johnson is just so…boring. There’s no flavor there.

8:38	Jeff Sullivan: He doesn’t offend me with his stupidity or anything, he just doesn’t add any value.

8:38	Comment From Guest My favorite Kruk highlight: http://youtu.be/9SH715tr6ek

8:39	Paul Swydan: Which is fine on Inside the NBA. He’s the straight man for Charles and Kenny. But they’re not doing baseball games with him, and Ron Darling and Cal Ripken are nowhere near as entertaining or insightful as Charles or Kenny are.

8:39	Comment From Skore Are we seeing a reverse lefty strikezone? Ball inside called a strike, outside pitches called balls

8:39	Jeff Sullivan: It’s probably the angle

8:40	Comment From Anonymous Martin’s pitch framing skills fooling the crowd.

8:40	Jeff Sullivan: Also, crowd wants strikes

8:40	Jeff Sullivan: Also, I’m behind in the queue

8:40	Comment From Jamie Ripken seems to have almost nothing to say. I

8:40	Paul Swydan: Yup. He’s wasted there.

8:41	Comment From Steve Which team has the better shot to make the world series if they win this game?

8:41	Jeff Sullivan: I feel like it’s the Pirates

8:41	Paul Swydan: If Pagan was healthy, I’d say Giants.

8:42	Jeff Sullivan: Walker takes the 0-and-2 pitch down the middle

8:42	Paul Swydan: It’s a bold strategy, Cotton, let’s see if it pays off for him.

8:42	Comment From Guest Royals / A’s would have been the most fun WS, but rules, ya know?

8:42	Jeff Sullivan: Royals/Pirates would be awesome and weird

8:43	Paul Swydan: I want Angels/Dodgers most of all, I think. But I am on the record as predicting Angels/Nationals.

8:43	Comment From Tucker Who are each of your least favorite teams (division rivals of your respective teams excluded)?

8:43	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s the Red Sox

8:43	Paul Swydan: But Royals/Pirates would be cool too.

8:43	Paul Swydan: Rays for me. I’m sooooo over Joe Maddon it isn’t funny.

8:43	Jeff Sullivan: Panik! in the Outfield

8:44	Comment From Grand Admiral Braun Panik! at the Frisco

8:44	Comment From Conor How pissed is Adam Dunn?

8:44	Jeff Sullivan: I get the sense Adam Dunn doesn’t really get pissed off at anything

8:45	Comment From Not a SuckUp, I swear For all the worrying Jeff and Dave were sharing last night. You guys (esp, you Jeff) killed it with the articles today.

8:45	Jeff Sullivan: I’m 99% sure that game will have been the best game to cover all playoffs, and it wasn’t even in October

8:45	Paul Swydan: Agreed. We should forcibly deprive them of sleep more often!

8:45	Comment From Alex Some of it was in October

8:45	Jeff Sullivan: Not local time!

8:46	Paul Swydan: Come on Jeff, there’s only one REAL time zone in this country.

8:46	Jeff Sullivan: Hawaiian

8:46	Comment From Jaack Playoff idea: You get to take 5 players from any team you beat for the rest of the playoffs.

8:47	Jeff Sullivan: That’s too many!

8:47	Paul Swydan: That’s pretty much what they do in the Caribbean Series, is it not?

8:47	Comment From Bryan What has to happen for this Pittsburgh crowd to throw stuff on the field like the Atlanta crowd did a couple years ago?

8:47	Comment From semperty Can someone please make a gif of Pence talking to Panik in the dugout? Like now.

8:47	Jeff Sullivan: McCutchen rips off his jersey, reveals a Giants uniform underneath, spits on a picture of Sidney Crosby

8:48	Paul Swydan: Probably not as much as you think. It is Pittsburgh, after all.

8:48	Comment From Morty Show highlights of the PIT-TB game from Sunday

8:48	Comment From Skore semperty, Brisbee is on it

8:49	Comment From Zach Is there a website that has public access to shift stats? Pittsburgh has got me itching to dive into the numbers a bit.

8:49	Comment From Billy Pedro Martinez should be a one man booth for TBS games. Ratings would skyrocket.

8:49	Paul Swydan: We have access to shift stats. But we’re not allowed to publish them all in data dumps like we do other stats.

8:49	Jeff Sullivan: he’d play poorly in the “speak American” segment of the country

8:50	Paul Swydan: I refuse to believe there are people out there capable of hating Pedro Martinez. You can’t make me!

8:50	Jeff Sullivan: Can anyone hate Pedro Martinez today? I don’t get it

8:50	Paul Swydan: He’s so adorable!

8:51	Comment From Guest Zimmer

8:51	Jeff Sullivan: awkward

8:51	Paul Swydan: Zimmer actually didn’t. They talked all that out in short order.

8:51	Comment From Mike What teams that are left, would match up for the most “sabermetric World Series”. In other words, which teams’ front offices are the most advance in terms of analytics.

8:51	Jeff Sullivan: Pirates vs. nobody

8:51	Jeff Sullivan: Angels I guess

8:51	Paul Swydan: Yeah the Angels do stuff.

8:52	Paul Swydan: Duquette is old school saber.

8:52	Jeff Sullivan: Weird to think that the Angels are the most sabermetric AL team left

8:52	Jeff Sullivan: What happened in the world

8:52	Comment From Billy This is more like the game we expected last night.

8:52	Jeff Sullivan: And all it took is Edinson Volquez

8:52	Jeff Sullivan: I found that Hunter Pence gif semperty requested.

8:53	Paul Swydan: Is it bad that I know the exact scene you’re referencing there?

8:53	Jeff Sullivan: 55 pitches thrown so far in this game

8:53	Jeff Sullivan: 42 strikes. Eventless

8:54	Comment From Are we having fun yet? McCutchen’s hair makes me want to be a better man

8:55	Comment From Alex that’s hunger games?

8:55	Jeff Sullivan: Boat, fire pit, beers and a baseball game. That’s perfect

8:55	Paul Swydan: Yes, it is. It’s the scene where Katniss is retelling to Haymitch how she shot the arrow at the apple in the pigs mouth during her evaluation.

8:55	Jeff Sullivan: what are you saying

8:56	Paul Swydan: don’t worry about it!

8:56	Jeff Sullivan: I only watch nature documentaries

8:56	Jeff Sullivan: and volcano webcams

8:56	Comment From Jaack Remember that time that Dustin Hermanson was randomly the White Sox closer. That made more sense than whatever Paul is talking about.

8:56	Comment From Jon Whoa whoa whoa… Woody harrelson is in hunger games

8:56	Paul Swydan: Yeah, he’s one of the leads!

8:56	Jeff Sullivan: Why does PNC Park look so hazy

8:57	Jeff Sullivan: Remember that time Dustin Hermanson had a chin starfish

8:57	Paul Swydan: “That’s what they get for building the ballpark on the ocean.” – Oil Can Boyd, after a game was postponed for fog in Cleveland

8:58	Comment From Ruki Jeff, we can’t be sure that the station’s cameras are all just fogged over from poor maintanence, given the camera angles.

8:58	Jeff Sullivan: According to Buster Olney, Josh Harrison is always trying to get better

8:58	Jeff Sullivan: His massive breakthrough this season dates back to his time as a young child

8:58	Paul Swydan: I like Josh Harrison’s yellow batting gloves.

8:58	Comment From Mike I dont know a lot about the Pirates pen. When should Hurdle yank Volquez, if the score remains 0-0?

8:58	Jeff Sullivan: Holdzkom!

8:59	Comment From Jamie Hunger Games was surprisingly good

8:59	Paul Swydan: Thank you Jamie

8:59	Jeff Sullivan: Volquez should have 1-2 more innings maybe

8:59	Jeff Sullivan: Realistically 1

9:00	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Obligatory “Who would win a hunger games with MLB players” question

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: Puig

9:00	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know what the hunger game rules are but it’s Puig

9:00	Paul Swydan: I’ll put in a vote for Holliday. It would probably be pretty good, since so many of those dudes like to hunt.

9:00	Comment From Jamie Stanton

9:00	Comment From Glen is milton bradley officially retired? he’d win

9:00	Comment From Denji Somehow Hunter Pence

9:00	Comment From Jose Hunter Pence

9:01	Comment From Brandon I nominate Kyle Farnsworth for a sneaky win. That dude can Ground n Pound

9:01	Comment From Mike Ya, but theyre used to hunting things that dont fight back…

9:01	Comment From Tucker Bartolo Colon first to go?

9:01	Comment From Da Bear Bartolo Colon would be hungry enough to eat all the other players, so he wins.

9:01	Comment From Rothbard Mike Timlin. He always wore camo everything.

9:01	Comment From Jaack Hunter Pence can use photosynthesis, so he would definitely not starve.

9:01	Comment From Guest Ichiro would figure out a way to win

9:01	Comment From David Jayson Werth looks like a moutain man

9:01	Comment From Glen A-rod easy first to go

9:01	Comment From gump isn’t there audience voting/help ala survivor? puig for sure

9:02	Comment From Brandon Jose Altuve is pretty much Rue, right?

9:02	Paul Swydan: Ohhhhhhh, he is.

9:02	Paul Swydan: How mad is Jeff at me right now for bringing this up?

9:02	Comment From DC low and outside I saw Jaysen Worth hanging out at the Cavemen exhibit at the Smithsonian Natural History Museum. He looked at home.

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: I’m just ignoring the chat at this point

9:03	Comment From Mike Sandoval plays for who next year?

9:03	Paul Swydan: I say Red Sox.

9:03	Comment From Guest Pedro says, “Boom goes the dynamite!” http://m.mlb.com/video/topi…

9:03	Paul Swydan: Sox need a lefty hitter for the middle of the lineup and a third baseman. Sandoval solves both, in the short term anyway.

9:04	Comment From Mike What about least analytics friendly? Royals vs. Giants?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: either Giants or Dodgers

9:04	Comment From Dave Camerons Puppy This is late, but Chipper Jones would totally host the MLB hunger games on his hunting land

9:05	Paul Swydan: He probably already does.

9:05	Comment From Rothbard Redsox better not sign Panda. I’d much rather seen Cecchini play there next year.

9:05	Paul Swydan: No thanks.

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: There just is not another hitter like Pablo Sandoval today

9:05	Comment From NickS I’ve seen talk of Chase Headley as the “Middlebrooks is a bum” plan.

9:06	Paul Swydan: Headley disappears for half seasons at a time.

9:06	Paul Swydan: Here we go, first test for Hurdle.

9:06	Paul Swydan: How proactive is he going to be?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure they talked about this before the game

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Bullpen needs to be stirring right now

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: According to Curt Schilling, don’t allow leadoff runners

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I suppose in Volquez’s defense, the two hits so far have been on good pitches

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: But shit’s about to go down regardless

9:09	Comment From Mike Somewhere, I’d like to think Barry Bonds is enjoying this game

9:09	Comment From Grand Admiral Braun Does it bum you out when outstanding players (past or present) say something ridiculous or redundant like Schilling just did on Twitter? “Seems” like they should be better than that. But after all, a lot of them are just jocks.

9:10	Paul Swydan: No, it makes me happy because it means there is still room for people like Jeff and myself. If people like Schilling said smart stuff all the time, you guys wouldn’t need us!

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Schilling has been a talking head for years. It’s what he knows now

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Lots of former players have a lot of good things to say but not that many of them want to actually be in the media

9:10	Paul Swydan: Having said that, Schilling is a smart person. I would echo what Jeff just said.

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: So this is happening

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Volquez’s first bad PA of the inning. Reliever has to come in as soon as possible though

9:11	Paul Swydan: Is Hurdle limping? He looked like he wasn’t moving around too well there.

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Is that why he hasn’t come out to remove Volquez yet?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Nobody throwing in the bullpen. Welp

9:11	Comment From Giancarlo Yeah, he’s got that hip replacement coming up

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, I don’t know what to say about this — the Pirates are smarter than I am. This is their idea.

9:11	Comment From David He needs hip surgery.

9:11	Comment From James S Hurdle has had a lingering hip issue for a month or so.

9:11	Comment From Mark from PGH Hurdle fell down the steps and won’t take pain killers

9:12	Paul Swydan: Ah, that sucks. I like Clint. He used to wear the craziest Cosby sweaters to the Rockies’ holiday parties.

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.post-gazette.com…

9:12	Comment From Mark from PGH afraid of developing substance addiction since he is a recovered alcoholic

9:12	Paul Swydan: Yeah, that’s totally fair.

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: What how

9:13	Paul Swydan: WOW

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: how did that

9:13	Paul Swydan: The box score does not delineate between first row homers and 20th row homers.

9:13	Comment From Nuno Gloop Crawsome

9:13	Comment From Tucker NOW THE PHONE?!

9:13	Comment From Tucker NOW?!

9:14	Comment From semperty Clint Hurdle gets a reliever up AFTER the grand slam? Wow. Just wow.

9:14	Comment From Bob I thought that was going to be soft fly out.

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Here’s the thing: I bet even if they got the bullpen going, it wouldn’t have been enough time to get a reliever in for Crawford. But still, it’s Edinson Volquez

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I was convinced Crawford had himself a moderate-depth sac fly

9:14	Paul Swydan: Agreed.

9:14	Paul Swydan: I agree with the first thing, not the second. It looked deep to me off the bat.

9:15	Comment From Brandon Be honest: If you catch that home run, do you throw it back?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t really care about a Brandon Crawford home run ball

9:15	Paul Swydan: No, people that throw back home run balls are morons.

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I’d give it to someone

9:15	Comment From Guest Lester, Scherzer, and Martin to the Cubs in 2015. How many games do they win?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: 91

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Worley throwing. Would’ve loved Volquez for 3 and Worley for 3 as a tandem starter thing

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I know that sounds meaningless now

9:16	Paul Swydan: I’ll say 92 because life has Price is Right rules.

9:16	Paul Swydan: Crawford’s homer worth .198 WPA.

9:17	Paul Swydan: That inning started with the Pirates having 50% WE, and now it’s down to 10.1%.

9:17	Comment From hscer Well, teams with 4-run leads are 0-1 this postseason 😛

9:17	Comment From Guest Why is Mercer (.29 wOBA) batting second instead of Neil Walker (.356)

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Mercer’s been super good against lefties

9:18	Comment From gump is brooksbaseball allowed/able to post up to the minute pitche location data?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: nope

9:18	Comment From DTSS You warm someone up when there are two on and no out. Ready by the time the bases are loaded. Terrible managing.

9:18	Paul Swydan: We did make note of it at that time, this is true.

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: My blind spot is not knowing how little time it takes for a guy to get warm, especially if it’s a starter like Worley

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Doubt he gets ready in the span of one walk

9:19	Paul Swydan: Everyone is different. Rafael Betancourt likes to throw a ton. He said he’d throw like 40-50 pitches because he likes throwing. Other guys used to tell me like 8 pitches and they’re good.

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I bet Worley is not an 8-pitch kind of guy

9:20	Paul Swydan: No, I wouldn’t think so, especially because he’s not a reliever. But when I saw the rosters today, I also assumed that Worley was the break in case of extras emergency guy, not first man up.

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: No matter the crowd, no matter the stakes, there ain’t no crowd noise after a tie-breaking grand slam

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: My brilliant hindsight plan would’ve been Volquez 3, Worley 3, then normal bullpen usage

9:21	Comment From Guest Bring worley in anyway. Volquez was melting down. However warm they could get worley would have been good enough

9:21	Paul Swydan: I don’t think this is true, unfortunately.

9:22	Comment From Guest Why even expect Volquez to go more than 3 innings anyway? Shouldnt they have had someone warming up to start the 4th?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s clear by now the Pirates are big believers in Edinson Volquez

9:22	Comment From Joe How much does Lester get this offseason? And how much does he leave on the table to for the Red Sox?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Consensus from last night was $150m/7

9:23	Comment From Dave Camerons Puppy When will managers realize that a winner takes all game should be managed completely different than a regular post season game?

9:23	Comment From Will Brandon Crawford: First postseason grand slam by a shortstop. Ever.

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Ned Yost went to Yordano Ventura after James Shields threw like 68 pitches

9:23	Comment From Will That was from Ckamka

9:23	Comment From Mike So when should the Giants take out Bumgarner? Do they really have a good enough pen?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Bumgarner’s thrown like 40 pitches. He’s got a while

9:24	Paul Swydan: In September, they actually had the worst bullpen FIP- in baseball.

9:24	Comment From Jack Glasscocks Cup Would WPA have been the same if the game was tied 5-5, or does the equation build in a higher run scoring environment, making WPA lower?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Run environment is a factor, but actual score is not a factor, aside from the margin

9:24	Comment From Henry Jeff: why not just a setup guy for this inning then Worley next inning?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: That would’ve been my fallback, absent a Worley-in-the-fourth programmed plan

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: In today’s baseball game, injured catcher tries to bunt on

9:26	Paul Swydan: McCutchen chuckling at West and Hurdle is my everything.

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t even mind the idea so much, it’s just weird

9:27	Comment From Evergreen Bowl Subdivision is San Fran planning an orange-out if they advance?

9:28	Paul Swydan: I can’t say that I’ve spoken with the folks in the Giants’ marketing department lately, but I hope so!

9:28	Comment From Grand Admiral Braun It’s the bottom of the 4th and you can hear a pin drop in Pittsburgh.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Every crowd is quiet when they’re losing early on

9:28	Comment From Jack Why does that cubs squad with Lester and Max only win 91? Seems like they’d have no weaknesses at all

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: It takes a lot to be projected north of 91 wins

9:29	Paul Swydan: IIRC, the Nats weren’t projected at much higher than 91 this season. Jeff?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/co…

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Dodgers led baseball at 91

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Nats, Tigers, 89

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Red Sox, 88…

9:30	Paul Swydan: Boom. Not even 91.

9:30	Paul Swydan: Dbacks 78, Rockies 79

9:31	Comment From Deelron Only 4 teams won more then 91 games this year, and projections are conservative….

9:31	Comment From Rothbard How many beers is too many beers in a night?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Are they real beers or common beers

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I think people misunderstand how hard it is to win 90 games in a season

9:31	Paul Swydan: Also depends on whether or not you have to work in the morning. Or go to class, I guess.

9:32	Comment From Da Bear In the wake of yesterday’s Soto injury on that goofy rundown, should the Pirates try to hit grounders to first for a 3-1 and then run as hard as they can to tackle Madison Bumgarner at the bag?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: I want to go on record as saying again I don’t think having Soto would’ve made a huge difference. A lot of that running was on the pitchers

9:32	Comment From Jack damn… Do you think Baez works out? Has he become significantly less shiny in your eyes?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: We all always knew this could happen. He’s extraordinarily young

9:33	Comment From Evergreen Bowl Subdivision I’m making a pizza dough. Should I use: a-no garlic, b-some garlic or c- ALL THE GARLIC?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: some garlic

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Volquez still pitching btw

9:33	Comment From semperty Anyone else realize Lester had retired 13 straight Royals going into the 8th before he allowed 3 to score. It’s baseball. It’s October. It’s weird. Let’s just have some fun, here.

9:34	Comment From Skore Downside of a bullpen game: less control of the running game

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Giants stole 56 bases

9:34	Paul Swydan: “Joe, can you ask this camera guy to leave? I haven’t had a dip all game!”

9:35	Comment From zmiko 16 of those were Pagan

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: So much talk about which decisions are or aren’t right, and to me it seems to shift a lot of the responsibility from the players. I don’t like that. There are good decisions and bad decisions, but no one player decision that actually occurs swings the odds by more than a couple percentage points at most. Like, going to Ventura, not great? Sure, I can accept that, but he almost never allows a dinger there

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Jeers to the managers when they make bad moves, but bad moves don’t cost games. Bad plays cost games

9:36	Comment From Jack Glasscocks Cup If the running was on the pitchers yesterday, doesn’t that mean that Ned Yost actually had a gameplan? That’s sacrilege

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: The Royals have really good runners

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Get used to good baserunners. Baseball is going to lean on them for more offense in the next 5-10 years

9:37	Comment From Evergreen Bowl Subdivision Jeff, this Saturday is one of the NW’s best beer festivals: Yakima Fresh Hop

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Missed the Hood River fresh hop, and will miss the Yakima fresh hop

9:37	Comment From hscer Ha. I just thought Jim leyland was Don Sutherland.

9:37	Comment From David Are people really more successful stealing on relievers? Any link for that?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Relievers are generally inferior at holding

9:37	Paul Swydan: That’d be fun to look at though.

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.baseball-referen…

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: 71% against starters this year, 77% against relievers

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: In higher-leverage situations you’ll probably tend to have only better baserunners trying, but still, there’s your gap

9:39	Comment From semperty Ventura had thrown 200 pitches over the last 7 days – 73 two days before he threw out of the bullpen. The “he almost never” goes out the window when you’re talking about a kid that’s gassed.

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Yost would’ve known if he were gassed

9:39	Comment From Andrew McCutchen What are the odds that we can pull a Royals and get back into this game?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Not high unless you start working the pitch count. Bumgarner still under 50 pitches.

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: 33% chance the Pirates make this at least anxious

9:40	Comment From Guest Royals runners v. Yadier Molina, who wins?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: which pitchers?

9:40	Comment From Aaron Except managerial decisions seem like some of the few things you actually have control over in terms of swinging the probability of winning. It just requires the right decision.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Sure, but you still have such low probability swings. Analysis has to start with what happens on the field, I feel like

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Or maybe I just don’t like reading second-guessing

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: it feels so sabermetric, 12 years ago

9:42	Comment From Ruki Least favorite commercial so far this playoff game?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Viagra eye contact

9:42	Comment From semperty Yost is the same manager that was “frustrated” Crow gave up a grand slam because they were “one out away from Herrera”. I don’t give him the benefit of the doubt on a lot of things – especially not bullpen management.

9:42	Paul Swydan: It certainly is off-putting to have so much disagreement on Twitter about this decision or that decision, but sometimes I can’t help but join the fray.

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I think there’s a difference between not knowing great roles and not knowing who does and doesn’t have the energy to pitch. That second one is pretty basic

9:43	Comment From semperty Do we think Bochy repeats Melvin/Yost’s mistakes with his starter? Or does he have a quicker hook?

9:43	Paul Swydan: Bumgarner has worked deep enough into the game that Bochy will have the luxury of pulling him quickly now.

9:43	Comment From David Looks like runners take off more against relievers too…so I’d doubt there’s a selection problem driving the difference.

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Relievers are super one-dimensional

9:44	Comment From Evergreen Bowl Subdivision Jeff, if Nike(whoever) said their intention was to build an awesome ballpark in Portland with maybe 35-40k seats and intended to bring a team to town, how do you think it would do?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: It would do ok. People would show up — we support our sports teams. But I don’t think Portland is dying for a baseball team

9:45	Comment From Mike It amazes me how all the talk is about Ned Yost, where Bob Melvin should get wayyyy more scrutiny. Leaving Lester in that long was laughably bad.

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Yost made the more unusual decision, Melvin made the more wrong decision

9:45	Comment From Guest Cards/Royals 4 games this year. 1 SB by the Royals in 37 innings.

9:47	Comment From Mike I can’t wait to see Mike Trout in the playoffs. Exciting times

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: does Mila Kunis work at Jim Beam

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I feel like that is a bummer

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: this is Kutcher’s fault

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I think that’s the most recent celebrity couple I know about

9:48	Paul Swydan: all i know is i’m thinking about trying jim beam now

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t want a woman with access to a brand

9:49	Comment From James S You’ve never tried Jim Beam?! Were you never a high school senior man?

9:49	Comment From Ryan So which park/fan base provides the biggest home field advantage in baseball?

9:49	Paul Swydan: I actually didn’t drink much in high school. Like, at all, basically. I’m an Eagle scout. I wasn’t corrupted until college.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: the Rockies have either baseball’s biggest home-field advantage or road-field disadvantage

9:50	Paul Swydan: or both

9:50	Comment From semperty Melvin’s decision was a baseball norm – something people won’t question. Yost went against the norm and (predictably) lost. Managers that don’t break the norm don’t get burned by the media when it doesn’t pan out.

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: just like 4th downs

9:50	Comment From Joe Idk what high school you went to, but around here they drink cheap beer like Natty Ice.

9:50

Comment From Joe
I think managerial mistakes get more grief because they’re easier to avoid. There aren’t as many variables as performance itself. The perception is that there are a lot more guys walking the Earth who can do vs. play the game. So with all the money and resources teams expend in order to put themselves in the best positions to succeed, forgetting the game management is maddening.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I get that part. I think it just gets carried away sometimes. People are so dedicated to finding the mistakes they lose sight of the actual significance of them.

9:51	Paul Swydan: Yes, Joe Sheehan likes to derisively refer to them as middle managers.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Volquez is still pitching btw

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: there we go

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: so there’s a walk that didn’t need to happen

9:51	Paul Swydan: The lede for every pittsburgh writer will say “he was good except for one inning”

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Literally, a walk that didn’t need to happen, for Hurdle. Could’ve spared himself two sorts of pain by starting the inning with someone else

9:52	Comment From Tim If you needed one person to steal a base for you in a tie game in the bottom of the 9th, who would you choose? Hamilton? Dyson? Gordon? Other?

9:52	Paul Swydan: Davey Roberts, duh.

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I honestly think it might be Dyson

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Hamilton in a couple years

9:53	Paul Swydan: Yeah in todays game, I’d go Dyson. Quintin Berry as a darkhorse.

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Terrance Gore? I don’t know anything about him

9:54	Comment From elb Anyone else notice that around 10 pm Pacific last night mlb.com briefly had a game recap posted that had the Royals losing in 12?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Someone did screenshot that!

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: STOP READING TWEETS

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: at least stop reading stupid pointless tweets

9:55	Paul Swydan: No, what! These things happen sometimes. There is a lot of pressure to have things live the second the game ends.

9:55	Comment From Ruki To be fair, the 4th down thing is a bit overstated (A fair amount of the analysis fails to take into account a lot of things like field position, strength of team’s offense vs. defense, time left/score etc)

9:55	Paul Swydan: Having done that job for two years, I can say it’s no picnic.

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Football analysis finally getting interesting as the game of football approaches a slow death

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: 5-0…

9:56	Paul Swydan: Jeff’s 7-2 prediction is looking better every minute.

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: My first prediction was 7-2 SF, my second prediction was Volquez would be the surprising star of the game. 50% rounds up to 100%

9:56	Comment From Evergreen Bowl Subdivision If Jeff, Paul and Dave C walked into a bar… would anyone have a drink?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: several of them

9:57	Paul Swydan: At least two of us!

9:57	Comment From Ruki “The game of football approaches a slow death” Since when?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: my dreams

9:57	Paul Swydan: Some day we’re going to get Cameron hammered, and it will be glorious.

9:57	Comment From Anonymous Pirates fans are completely disoriented: https://twitter.com/stoolpr…

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t even get Cameron to drink hot tea

9:58	Paul Swydan: Participation in Pee Wee football was down like 40% last year. By 2025 or so, the only people playing football will be in the deep south.

9:59	Comment From Grand Admiral Braun Obvious that Pittsburgh must upgrade at first base. How about an Aramis Ramirez acquistion and position switch?

9:59	Paul Swydan: I don’t hate it.

9:59	Comment From Tim If you were the Cardinals, would you consider conceding game one by pitching, say, Lackey against Kershaw, and then going with Wain-o against Greinke?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think there’s a benefit to that