NLCS Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies

If you need a reminder that anything can happen in a short postseason series, this is it, because the Phillies and Diamondbacks just pulled off two of the biggest upsets in postseason history as defined by regular season winning percentage differentials. The Phillies (90-72, .556) upended the Braves (104-58, .642) in a four-game thriller that left presumptive NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. speechless while the Diamondbacks (84-78, .519) swept the Dodgers (100-62, .617) into oblivion, holding MVP candidate Mookie Betts hitless and knocking Clayton Kershaw out in the first inning.

Perhaps the results shouldn’t have been quite as shocking as they were, given that we’ve all seen our share of October upsets. The Phillies should remind us of that, as a cast very similar to this year’s knocked off a powerhouse Braves team on the way to their first pennant in 13 years just last season. It’s worth remembering as we evaluate any postseason team that they’ve all undergone substantial changes — some for the better, some for the worse — on their way through the 162-game season and the first two rounds of the postseason.

By the regular season numbers, this would appear to be a mismatch, with the Phillies having an edge in every category except strikeout and walk rates, stolen bases, and baserunning. Thus far in the postseason, however, the two teams have been very similar, each thumping 13 homers and producing similar slash lines. The Phillies have hit .274/.354/.538 (137 wRC+), scoring 52% of their runs via homers, and stealing nine bases, while the Diamondbacks have hit .262/.347/.530 (133 wRC+), scoring 47% of their runs via homers, and stealing seven bases. That said, it’s a stretch to suggest the two lineups are of equal strength, particularly given that Arizona doesn’t have a left-handed option to start, though some of Philadelphia’s righties are vulnerable to same-side pitching.

Six Phillies hit at least 20 homers, led by Schwarber’s 47, which ranked second in the majors, and Castellanos’ 29. Harper hit his 21 in just 126 games after coming back from Tommy John surgery, with 16 of those coming in August or September as he became more comfortable at the plate. All of the starters except Rojas (who’s just 1-for-21 thus far in the postseason) finished in double digits in homers. Castellanos has four homers so far in the postseason, all via the first back-to-back multi-homer games in playoff history, and Harper has three, all of them emphatic ones. Turner (289 wRC+), Castellanos (275 wRC+), Harper (244 wRC+) and Realmuto (154 wRC+) have done the bulk of the heavy lifting in the postseason, with every other regular except Marsh below 100; Schwarber (26 wRC+, via a .160/.222/.240 line) has been particularly cold. The Schwarber-Turner-Harper part of the lineup is the most likely to see a lefty reliever such as Joe Mantiply or Andrew Saalfrank in this series, though the Diamondbacks do have righties who were effective against lefties.

The addition of Turner helped to add a new dimension to last year’s NL champions, as he went 30-for-30 in stolen bases and overcame a slow start, hitting .317/.371/.629 (165 wRC+) with 16 of his 26 homers from August 1 onward thanks to improved plate discipline and better contact. Stott stole 31 bases in 34 attempts, and five other Phillies swiped at least 10 bags. What the Phillies don’t do a lot is walk, with Schwarber, Harper, and Marsh (who likely won’t have to yield to platoonmate Cristian Pache except in the late innings) the only regulars with rates above 7%. Harper has been walked intentionally twice in the postseason, and it won’t be a surprise if that total increases, particularly given Bohm’s subpar showing against righties.

The Diamondbacks are the more contact-oriented of the two teams, capable of combining their ability to put the ball in play with their speed to put pressure on opposing fielders, and we know the Phillies’ defense isn’t a strong one (more on which below). But while seven of the nine batters (all but Gurriel and Longoria) have hit for a 100 wRC+ or better thus far in October, this has generally not been a very deep lineup against righties, with a noticeable drop-off after the top four.

During the regular season, Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo did more mixing and matching with his lineup than he’s done in the postseason. A bout of turf toe has limited Pham to DH duty in October, outfielder Jake McCarthy missed the first two rounds with an oblique injury, and Longoria has played every day at third instead of sharing time with lefty Jace Peterson and righty Emmanuel Rivera. Longoria himself is just 2-for-18 in the playoffs so far, but he’s got more postseason experience than any other Diamondback, and neither of the alternatives hit much in the regular season. Moreno has started all five games behind the plate despite a concussion scare in Game 2 of the Wild Card series, though he left Game 3 of the Division Series with a right wrist contusion, replaced by light-hitting backup Jose Herrera. Moreno leads the team with three postseason homers and should be good to go for this round.

Carroll, the likely NL Rookie of the Year, has been on fire thus far in October (.412/.565/.824, 255 wRC+ in 23 PA), with his power showing signs of returning after a second-half outage that probably owes something to the issues with his surgically-repaired right shoulder that surfaced shortly before the All-Star break. He’s one of four Diamondbacks who hit at least 24 homers during the regular season, with Walker’s 33 leading the way; Longoria (11) and the deadline addition Pham (16, including his time with the Mets) are their only other players who reached double digits. Carroll’s 54 steals (in 59 attempts) account for the lions’ share of the team’s total, particularly with McCarthy and his 26 steals out. Pham’s 22 steals is the second-highest total of those available, and he’s gone 2-for-3 in the playoffs, so we know his injury hasn’t completely slowed him up. Perdomo and Walker each stole more than 10 bases as well.

Earlier this month, I covered the playoff teams’ defenses, revisiting my midseason methodology of aggregating the major metrics into z-scores to account for their differing spreads in runs. These two teams were at opposite ends of the spectrum in everything except the catcher-specific areas, with Arizona ranking fourth overall and Philadelphia fourth-worst. I’m including slightly revised versions of each capsule here.

Negative framing numbers for Moreno and his backups created a bit of a gulf between the Diamondbacks, who were otherwise well above average across the board, and the top three teams, the Brewers, Blue Jays, and Rangers. Moreno had 20 DRS and 8 CRAA thanks to his blocking and throwing, so it’s not like Arizona’s catching was all bad. Walker led all first basemen with 9 RAA and ranked second with 9 DRS, while Gurriel was second among left fielders in both DRS and UZR (14 and 9.5, respectively), and Thomas was 3–5 runs above average across the board in center field. Carroll played all over the outfield but was strongest in right.

We’ve been talking about the Phillies’ wretched defense since they signed Schwarber and Castellanos in March 2022, and neither is improving afield. Schwarber’s -20 DRS and -17 RAA in left field and Castellanos’ -13.3 UZR in right were the worst in their respective metrics at any position. The good news is that Harper’s willingness to take up first base — where he was basically average in 303 innings but put a serious scare into everyone with his NLDS Game 4 collision with Matt Olson — has allowed Schwarber to take up residence at DH. Turner and Bohm were both brutal by DRS (-10 and -9, respectively) but within a few runs above average via the other numbers; for the second October in a row, the shortstop has produced a couple of deer-in-headlights moments that bear watching. Realmuto was the majors’ third-worst framer by both FRM (-12.4) and Statcast (-12). Thankfully, Stott was exceptional across the board (12 RAA, 7 DRS, 4.9 UZR), and Rojas put up a ridiculous 14 DRS in just 392 innings in center field while making a good showing by other metrics; his breathtaking catch of Acuña’s bases-loaded seventh-inning drive in Game 4 testifies to his defensive value. Pache, an 80-grade defender as a prospect, is available for late-inning defensive duty as well.

In sweeping their respective Wild Card series (the Phillies over the Marlins, and the Diamondbacks over the Brewers) and avoiding going the distance in the Division Series, both of these teams has been able to use just three starters, with one more or less fronting a bullpen game at least once. The structure of the LCS makes it harder to do that unless a team intends to pitch its Games 1 and 2 starters on three days of rest for Games 4 and 5, with the former doing so again for Game 7. A rainout could provide an extra day of rest, but only during the Philadelphia ends, since Chase Field has a retractable roof.

At this writing, Lovullo has officially named Gallen and Kelly his starters for Games 1 and 2, respectively, and the presumption is that Phillies manager Rob Thomson will counter with Wheeler and Nola in that order, as he did for the first two rounds; if the series extends past four, both of these pairs will be on tap for Games 5 and 6 as well.

The two Zac(k)s are the aces, pitchers who finished among the NL’s top three in WAR and could get down-ballot attention in the Cy Young race. Wheeler is the only starter on either side who can push his four-seamer past the mid-90s (avg. 95.8 mph), and is the best at avoiding hard contact; among all starters, his heater has the lowest xwOBA (.261) and fourth-highest whiff rate (31.3%). He’s got an effective sinker as well, and complements the two fastballs with a sweeper that’s very effective against righties and a more conventional slider and a curve against lefties. Overall, he was the majors’ most effective ERA qualifier against righties, holding them to a .240 wOBA (.194/.235/.313). He’s allowed three earned runs in 13 postseason innings thus far, with an 18-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Gallen spent much of the summer as the NL Cy Young frontrunner but struggled to limit hard contact; his 91.5 mph average exit velocity and 46.2% hard-hit rate allowed ranked in the third and fifth percentiles, respectively. Fortunately, he misses plenty of bats thanks to his curveball (40.3% whiff) and changeup (31.4% whiff), using the former more against righties and the latter more against lefties, with a slider and cutter in the mix as well. He’s allowed four runs in 11.1 innings pitched in the postseason, striking out eight but walking five.

From 2017-22, Nola ranked among the game’s most durable and effective pitchers, but his performance took a step back this year, as his strikeout, walk, and homer rates all deteriorated; his 8.3% barrel rate and 89.3 mph average exit velocity were both career worsts. Lefties teed off on his four-seamer, slugging .503 against the pitch, up from .346 in 2022; batters of both hands hit his sinker much harder, and his curveball didn’t generate as many whiffs, though he did get better results with his changeup. He’s been excellent in his two postseason starts, allowing just two runs in 12.2 innings while striking out 12 and walking two. Kelly gave up harder contact than a year ago, but was still very effective. He throws an elite changeup that held hitters to a .180 AVG and .234 SLG with a 32% whiff rate, and complements that with a broad assortment of other pitches, calling upon his four-seamer, sinker, cutter, and curve at least 10% of the time, with a slider that gets used against righties as well.

If those two pairs are pretty evenly matched, it’s clear the Phillies have more depth, though for both sides we’re likely to see a parade of short stints in Games 3 and 4. Suárez, who was limited to 22 starts during the regular season by elbow and hamstring strains, was very good in his two starts against the Braves, throwing 3.2 shutout innings before an early hook in Game 1 and then five innings of one-run ball in Game 4. His curveball is one of the game’s best, holding hitters to a .143 AVG and .226 SLG with a 37.7% whiff rate. His other pitches don’t play as well to righties, so his outing could be a nailbiter. Walker, who hasn’t pitched since September 30, is the leading candidate for Game 4, though he struggled down the stretch, with a 5.43 ERA and 5.01 FIP after July; if nothing else, his splitter-cutter combination could provide a different look. Sánchez, who also has yet to pitch this postseason but who did a nice job in about half a season as a starter, is another option for Game 4. He’s a groundball machine with a great changeup — it held hitters to a .148 AVG and .274 SLG with a 43% whiff rate — to go with his sinker-slider combo.

On the other side, Pfaadt scuffled through his rookie season, occasionally putting up zeroes but often getting lit up due to his penchant for finding barrels (11.2%) and allowing homers. The trend continued as he wobbled through a short Game 1 start against the Brewers, but he iced the Dodgers in Game 3, allowing just two hits in 4.1 innings. He does have a great sweeper that held hitters to a .180 AVG and .323 SLG with a 33.7% whiff rate, but batters slugged .529 or better against his four-seamer, changeup, sinker, and curve. As for a Game 4 option, Nelson could be a starter or a bulk option following an opener given his struggles against lefties. He’s gotten good results with his changeup and slider, but was hit hard (11.6% barrel rate, 90.8 mph average exit velocity) and didn’t strike out many hitters.

Neither team would be here had they not gotten great work from their bullpens in the earlier rounds, with the Diamondbacks’ relievers posting a 1.77 ERA, 2.47 FIP, and 27.7% strikeout rate in 20.1 innings and the Phillies’ relievers putting up a 1.45 ERA, 3.90 FIP, and 17.7% strikeout rate in 18.2 innings. The regular season numbers favor Philadelphia, but Arizona’s late-season turnover means their overall numbers are less representative; Sewald arrived via a deadline trade with the Mariners, Thompson was signed in mid-August after being released by the Rays, and Saalfrank was a September call-up. Together they’ve accounted for more than half of the team’s relief innings in the postseason while allowing just two runs.

Kimbrel is the Phillies’ primary closer, and while he’s not the superstar-level version of himself from a decade ago, his fastball-curveball combo still misses bats and doesn’t produce much of a platoon split. In closing out the Braves, Thomson demonstrated his willingness to bring Kimbrel into a high-leverage spot before the ninth. All three lefties are very capable of notching strikeouts and generating groundballs. Alvarado, who combines a high-90s sinker and a cutter, gives the Phillies an alternative to close if the matchups or workload concerns dictate, and so does Strahm, who finished off the Braves; he’s not as hard a thrower but his four-pitch mix (two fastballs, cutter, slider) is effective. Soto has two fastballs that average above 98 mph, as well as a slider that generated a 49% whiff rate while holding hitters to a .160 AVG and .362 SLG.

From the right side, Hoffman has a four-seamer that averages 97.1 mph, but his key pitch is his slider, which held righties to a .047 AVG and .094 SLG while generating a 47.2% whiff rate; his splitter handles lefties well. Domínguez throws 98, and he too has a hellacious slider (.173 AVG, .308 SLG, 46.6% whiff). Don’t overlook 22-year-old rookie righty Orion Kerkering, whose three postseason innings match his regular season total. He’s climbed all the way from A-ball this year and can offset a fastball that grazes 100 mph with a 70-grade slider.

Even given their late-season remake, the Diamondbacks’ bullpen lacks the fireworks-inducing offerings of the Phillies; where all of the latter’s relievers have Stuff+ overall scores of 106 or better, the same is true only for Sewald, Thompson, and Ginkel. Sewald, the poster child for vertical approach angle, throws a four-seamer that averages only 92.2 mph, but its high-spin, low-slot combination produces deception and helps it play high in the zone. Ginkel, the top setup man, has been even better than the numbers above since returning from a two-week trip to Triple-A Reno in June, striking out 32.1% of hitters thanks to better results with his slider; he’s punched out eight of 17 hitters faced in the postseason without a walk. The sidearming Thompson has overtaken Castro on the depth chart, relying on a 90ish sinker-slider combo to generate groundballs galore. Castro, another low-slot guy, combines a great slider with a 97ish sinker and changeup; he’s good at producing soft contact but has the widest platoon split of the bunch.

The Diamondbacks could carry as many as four lefties if they roster Kyle Nelson, who has yet to pitch in October, and activate Henry, who started 16 games for them but hasn’t pitched since late July due to elbow inflammation; he’s not built up enough to start unless it’s as an opener, though his reverse platoon split may preclude that. Mantiply is the more likely opener given his splits. After making the NL All-Star team last year, he missed time due to shoulder inflammation and a hamstring strain, and spent all of July at Reno, though he pitched better upon returning, with a 3.86 ERA and 3.64 FIP from August 2 onward. He’s yet another sinkerballer, one whose curveball and changeup both held hitters to sub-.200 wOBAs. Saalfrank has used his low-90s sinker-curve combo to stifle hard contact and has yet to allow a run in the majors (save for inherited runners); Lovullo hasn’t been afraid to throw him into the fire, bringing him in with a combined seven runners on base in his three postseason outings. My colleague Chris Gilligan will have a more in-depth look at Arizona’s relievers later today.

Our traditional Playoff Odds give the Phillies nearly a 60% chance of winning this series, but the ZiPS game-by-game odds — which have Suárez and Pfaadt in Games 3 and 7, and Sánchez versus a bullpen game in Game 4 — call this a total tossup. I think the depth of Philadelphia’s staff will win out, but call me anything but surprised if Arizona somehow pulls this off.