NLDS Games Two and Three Review: Cincinnati
Due to various commitments, I saw very little baseball this weekend, including missing both of the final two Reds-Phillies match-ups. That makes writing up reviews of them a bit challenging, as I’m relegated to box scores, highlights, and scrolling through my twitter feed for at-the-time reactions to what was happening. Based on those three things, this is what I can basically surmise:
The Reds sucked at defense. Cole Hamels was excellent.
And that’s basically the story of the weekend. On Friday night, the Reds committed four critical errors which led to most of the Phillies offense. Back to back fifth inning botches by Brandon Phillips and Scott Rolen set up a base hit by Chase Utley to score two runs, and then the epic double error by Jay Bruce and Phillips gave up the lead for good.
On Sunday, another error by Orlando Cabrera gave the Phillies their first run, and the only one they would need, as Hamels did his best Roy Halladay impression, shutting the Reds down and giving his team a first round sweep.
Clearly, the Reds were just outplayed. They didn’t hit, they didn’t field, and while they pitched well, they didn’t pitch quite well enough. They managed to hold the Phillies to a .212/.301/.273 line for the series, but didn’t spread the baserunners out, so the Phillies were able to get 13 runs in three games out of a .574 OPS.
You could make some arguments that Dusty Baker made a few poor decisions and the umpiring wasn’t exactly stellar, but those things didn’t affect the outcome of the series. This series was decided by two excellent pitching performances and one terrible defensive performance. Everything else is just superfluous.
So now, the Phillies advance for a match-up with either San Francisco or Atlanta, where they will be large favorites again. The Reds head home and prepare for 2011, and while the season didn’t end the way they would have hoped, they have to be happy with the results overall. They have a lot of talent to build around and a winter to address some of the problems on the roster. Given a few days to get over their performance in the division series, they’ll look back and be proud of what they accomplished this year. And they should be.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Reds have the best offense in the NL, and get shut out in games 1 and 3. Best defense in the majors, and make 4 errors to lose game 2. Pitchers actually pitch well, and we’re swept in 3 games. Baseball is a stupid, stupid game.
hurr hurr you didn’t predict the phillies would go 11-0 in the postseason, obviously biased against the phillies, #6org, etc.
hurr hurr hurr, somebody took a shot at Dave one day. Oh noes rush to defend him!!!!
Fuck you fagit.
You are a sad person.
That’s a pretty good summation, Dave. The Reds never got loose and looked nothing like the team that rolled to the division lead in August. Nothing has been said openly, but it appeared to us as if Rolen was playing hurt. His swing was a half-hearted hack and his play in the field seemed clearly hampered.
Dusty will no doubt be hammered for his decision to start Volquez in Game 1, and he pulled Arroyo too early in game 2 and didn’t manage his bullpen especially well, but imo his biggest shortcoming was his deferring to veterans or experience rather than trusting his young players. Travis Wood didn’t look especially flustered after replacing Volquez and I think most fans would have gladly taken the gamble on Janish over Cabrera and Heisey and/or Nix over Gomes.
The umpiring was mediocre as has (sadly) come to be expected — look no further than the Utley phantom HBP and safe call on his steal within one inning; the Reds own the failure to verify that he touched third — but had no real impact on the series. As you say, it was a young team that was outplayed, though more through unforced errors than anything particularly compelling on PHI’s part. Having watched all the series this weekend, I’d say the Giants have an excellent chance to beat PHI if they can beat ATL. As was the case last year, I don’t find the Phillies’ offense all that scary, and the Giants have the starting pitching to make this interesting if they can limit the exposure of their ‘pen.
Rolen said Utley touched third, and he probably had as good a view as anyone. Doesn’t change the fact that he shouldn’t have been on second, of course.
The Reds didn’t throw over and let the umps rule, point being the distinction between clear umpiring errors and an error that would belong to the Reds if Utley didn’t touch the bag.
His biggest shortcoming (Dusty’s) was that he trusted veterans too much and didn’t put enough faith in his young players and yet you argue that he pulled Arroyo too early in Game 2? He stuck w/ Arroyo far too long. The way the pen pitched, it might not have mattered but a couple of innings of Bailey or Wood would’ve looked pretty good for the Reds. The Phils were a horrible matchup for Arroyo and the Reds were lucky he wasn’t blown up.
That’s so out of character for Dusty (going with Veterans over youth).
He did go with Chapman a couple times and he was distinctly unimpressive. He threw hard but had pretty much no command on his fastball.
However, the bottom line is that the Reds simply lost to a better team.
I don’t know what game you were watching, Chuck. Arroyo was only charged with one of those three runs for a reason. The only conceivable reason to pull him was his pitch count, but the guy’s basically playing catch so 103 pitches isn’t exactly his ceiling. Regardless, it’s not like the argument hinges on one player. As for the assertiont hat he was boung to get blown up, I’d love to know what that’s based on, other than rank surmise.
“He did go with Chapman a couple times and he was distinctly unimpressive. He threw hard but had pretty much no command on his fastball.”
Of course he looked unimpressive on Friday: he’d had about five minutes to warm up. Basically they got him up and throwing at about the time you would if he was slated for the 8th, and then pitched him in the 7th. Idiotic. When properly warmed up in game 3 he looked much better, though I agree that his command was mediocre compared to his norm.
Regarding Chapman “not looking impressive” in game 2: he owned Utley until Chase faked getting hit, he struck out Howard on three pitches and then the defensive unraveling began. Note, none of the runs that scored that inning were earned … How many outs does the guy have to record?
That said, agreed that the Reds lost to a better team.
He threw way too many fastballs. His slider is the better pitch. The Phillies made pretty good contact on his fastball but they had nothing with that slider. I get that throwing 103-104 mph is pretty cool but a fastball hitting team (like the Phillies) showed that its simply a matter of timing.
He should work a bit on pitch selection and I’d love to see his supposedly above-average changeup. He’d likely also be more effective if he took a bit off his fastball and worked on locating it more.
That said, there’s a ton of ability and raw stuff there. I simply wasn’t blown away by him like I was the first time I watched Strasburg.
“He should work a bit on pitch selection”
The Reds have been calling FB almost exclusively in Chapman’s appearances down the stretch, and it’s not up to Chapman. He did throw more sliders in the game 3 appearance, and they were quite good. I disagree that the slider is *better* than the FB. They’re equally good and work in concert when he’s allowed to throw both. If you haven’t seen his best FB, and I can attest that your haven’t, then it doesn’t make much sense to compare the two.
Phillips and Utley sure managed to not look like elite defensive second basemen in this series. It’s funny what can happen in a few games.
I’d just like to highlight one thing:
So now, the Phillies advance for a match-up with either San Francisco or Atlanta, where they will be large favorites again.
This was useless. I’m sure you drew up an assignment sheet of who would write up which game reviews and previews before the postseason, but… why on earth would I want to read a recap of the game, as someone who watched the game, BY SOMEONE WHO DIDN’T WATCH THE GAME?
And I didn’t. After the first paragraph I skipped down and wrote this. Sometimes you do some curious things, Cameron.
What, you don’t come here for secondary sources?
When the article is a review of 2 games that the author didn’t watch, um, no, I have zero interest in a secondary source.
That there isn’t at least one author among all the fangraphs guys that actually watched the game and could do a write up sounds REALLY bad and perpetuates that stereotype about stats-heads not actually watching the games….
games aren’t played in any arena other than the sabre one, the same one that saw dave cameron’s “best team in baseball” beat the yankees 3 games in a row.
actually watching games and acknowledge that there might be more to baseball than UZR, BABIP, wOBA, FIP, etc? f*** that
So, what did he miss by only watching highlights?
He’ll never know?
Not much, since I can verify, as someone who did watch the game, that he gave a pretty good synopsis.
Blackout-exactly. I watched the games and this summary was pretty much spot on. Mountain out of a molehill and all that. Anything to go after DC.
Thank you, Dusty, for not starting your best pitcher. Travis Wood, who earlier in the year flirted with a perfect game against the Phillies, would have been a tough matchup.
Yes, thank you Dusty.
I said on the Series preview thread that Dusty would be one of the biggest weapons the Phillies had in this series and it turned out to be accurate.
Amen to that. Dusty is the worst. Pitiful for Cincy that they signed him for another two years ….
I wish he’d started Wood as well, but Dusty Baker is not *the worst* by a long stretch. I’m not always a fan of his personnel decisions and affinity for veterans, but he did a very good job of serving player development needs without compromising the team’s ability to contend. Two years is about right to see if he can help us take the next step. I’m sure he’s excited to be here another two years with a young, promising team.
As a Phillies fans, I give a lot of credit to the Reds. Nobody expected them to win the NL Central and they put together a nice season. Bright future ahead of them with their current core of players.
They’ll be back next year and they should be the favorites to win the Central again. They have a ton of young good talent. Bruce, Stubbs, Volquez, Cueto, Votto, Wood, Chapman. That’s one hell of a core to have.
St. Louis should be the favorite.
We’ll see. The Reds showed that they are a really good team this year. The Cards have some major holes (middle IF among others).
Why?
I’d argue that bad umpiring really did a lot to give the Phils the win in game 2, with the blown HBP call and then Utley being called safe on second base following that. We can’t tell what would’ve happened without those calls, but it sure helped. But with the Reds being completely shut out in game 1 and game 3 (with some BABIP help from line drives that happened to be hit in the wrong place), its hard to imagine the series outcome being any different.
The 2010 Reds seem reminiscent of the 2007 Phils. No one expected them to win the division, but they put together a very good season mostly behind a strong offense. While they went out with a whimper rather than a bang in the first round of the playoffs, they have enough talent locked down that its not difficult to see them as a playoff contender for years to come. They could use better starting pitching though.
From one Evan to another, I don’t think starting pitching is going to be the issue. It would have been nice (crucial?) to win the Cliff Lee sweepstakes, but I’m happy to roll into ST with, in no particular order, Arroyo, Cueto, Wood, Volquez, Bailey and Leake at full strength. I’m not expecting Chapman to start in ’11, but who knows?
No, our biggest issue will be what to do with the left side of the diamond and the troika of Rolen, Cabrera and Gomes. Rolen’s actions the last month and a half spoke to a player who was hurt and playing through it. He gave his all, but I think he was toast weeks before the corks popped.
The umpiring wasn’t exactly stellar… Let’s see you try to judge if a 102 mph fastball that came within centimeters of Utley’s hand and then ticked off the catcher’s glove actually hit him or not. I love how everyone is quick to blame the umpires, how about Chapman just doesn’t throw the pitch up and in near his hands?
Its not as if Utley jumped up and down clutching his hand or had the trainer come out to “check” his hand. The Ump told him to take the base…and he took the base.
Just as any other player would have.
Technically, Utley DID clutch his hand as he hopped out of the box, and he bent over at the waist and clutched it once he reached first. Not anywhere near the Jeter/FIFA standard, but let’s not pretend Utley wasn’t gaming.
Don’t hate the player, though.
I don’t know, the way I saw it, Utley was 1/4 of the way down the line before the ump made the call …. (not that I blame Utley for being afraid of Chapman and doing what he needed to do to get on base).
Of course up near his hands for Utley simply means up because the guy stands on top of the plate.
The pitch was maybe 6-8 inches inside?
I admire Utley for standing on the plate and taking away the inside pitch, but there’s a reason he’s near he top of MLB HBP leaderboards almost every year and if he’s going to do that he shouldn’t be faking HBP’s. You have to pitch Utley inside because a normal pitch on the outside corner is effectively down the middle to him.
The Reds decided to try and pitch inside all series and thus hit a bunch of guys or had near misses (including 1 head shot and another couple near hits).
Oh freaking well.
Utley is hardly the only player in baseball to crowd the plate. Unlike most, he doesnt wear armor padding to do so.
Utley wasn’t even “faking”. Faking was what Jeter did, Utley just ran to first base because ump said he got hit.
Which is fine…. if he’s not FAKING getting hit and running to 1st to draw a HBP call. If you want to stand on the plate, you shouldn’t be faking HBP’s as you are already getting more HBP’s to begin with.
Lots of people stand on the plate but lots of people don’t start jogging to first on an inside pitch when they are down in the count.
I suppose Buster Posey should have told the ump that he was out at 2B too.
I mean, its on the players to police themselves, not for the Umps (ALL SIX OF THEM) to actually do their jobs.
The everyone’s doing it is tired and intellectually bankrupt – Utley started going to first base BEFORE the HBP call was made.
Good to see folks defending the flag… And Utley’s I wasn’t sure if it hit me after the game was a joke…If it was simply a blown call by the ump why didn’t he just say it didn’t hit me but the ump called it? The reason is because he was selling the call and going to first before the call was made. DId you see Posey after the game – he said he was out and it was a a bad call – you really think his safe sign influenced the call?
If it had simply missed him, he stepped out and the ump said HBP, I’d be fine with it.
So let me dumb this down so there aren’t future bad analogies…. Utley does not have to say the ball didn’t hit him. But he should alllow the ump to make the call without influencing him (like starting to run to first before the call is made or Jeter jumping around when the ball hit the knob of his bat). He also doesn’t need to stand bent over at first unless he was winded from jogging down (but I guess you missed that part too)
But, Joe, isn’t Utley standing and not advancing towards the base indicative of the fact that the ball did NOT hit him?
I’m not convinced that Utley could do something that would be neutral, short of falling through a trapdoor in the batter’s box and waiting for the umpire to make a ruling without Utley physically present. His presence–anything he does–will influence the umpire.
“how about Chapman just doesn’t throw the pitch up and in near his hands?”
Yes, pitchers need to stop throwing inside to avoid the risk of umpiring mistakes. Did you just write that on a baseball site, Jeff?
I also do not like people who complain about Utley standing on top of the plate. The conventional wisdom for this is throw him some inside pitches and back him off a little. The problem with this is Utley continues to be hit with pitches and he refuses to back off the plate. Find another way to get this guy out then?
Hey, Dave, how bout dem Twins?
“Due to various commitments…”
such as:
raking fall leaves?
shopping with the wifey?
early christmas shopping?
gotcha. you’re a busy man.
i don’t need a recap from DC. i saw the games myself. maybe things will free up for him in time for the world series.
don’t need a recap? you clicked on this article why?
“I don’t need to read this article but I do need to take the time to write a pointless comment on it.”
Conshy, you are truely an ass.
“You could make some arguments that Dusty Baker made a few poor decisions and the umpiring wasn’t exactly stellar, but those things didn’t affect the outcome of the series.”
Having actually watched the games, I could make that argument. You, on the other hand, would have a tougher time doing so.
Bazinga
No one seems to care when Joe Morgan blatantly says he doesn’t watch other baseball games to prepare for his job. Weird.
but morgan at least watches the ones he’s commenting on…
That’s debatable.
Yeah, http://www.firejoemorgan.com never existed.
Hahaha. Yes. Beat me to it.
Anon – i may not NEED the review, doesn’t mean i don’t want to read one. plus, i must admit i was curious if it would be slanted one way or the other. somehow i was surprised that the reviewer didn’t watch the games. why are you defending this? it’s pretty ridiculous, no?
BTW has anybody pointed out yet that the Reds had under 20,000 attendance in over half their home games in September? Start showing up to the games and then you can bitch about the umpiring.
this is nonsensical. what does one have to do with the other?
Jeff, that’s two of the most inane offerings in a populous thread. Maybe you could make a connection between the Reds’ concession offerings and their unworthiness next. That seems about your caliber.
Cincy has never really had great attendance. Its mainly because they’re a small market team with a small surrounding population to support them. Their fanbase does really care about the team overall. Even their brand new stadium only bumped their attendance to 8th in the NL during its first year.
Its a bit easier for the Phillies to sell out every game when they’re in the 5th largest market in the country and they’re the only draw in town for Baseball (unlike NY, LA, Chicago). They have alot going for them.
~speaking as a Phillies fan~