Now Let’s Tweak Hard-Hit Rate Using Spray Angle

Last year, Connor Kurcon created dynamic hard-hit rate (DHH%) to add dimension to our typical understanding of Statcast’s hard-hit rate (HardHit%). Whereas HardHit% uses a fixed minimum exit velocity (EV) threshold of 95 mph to determine a hard hit, DHH% uses a — you guessed it — dynamic threshold that changes according to launch angle of the batted ball event (BBE). Kurcon found this orientation of hard-hit rate to be more powerful than its original in terms of describing same-year contact quality (per weighted on-base average on contact, or wOBAcon), predicting next-year contact quality, and predicting itself (year-over-year “stickiness”).

Inspired by a Yermín Mercedes home run off a Willians Astudillo eephus, I borrowed the premise of DHH% and applied it to pitch velocity — that is, the dynamic threshold was based on pitch speed rather than launch angle. Although not as powerful as the original, Pitch DHH% also proved itself superior to HardHit%.

Ever since Kurcon unveiled DHH% in 2020, though, I’ve been thinking about how the premise might apply to spray angle (horizontal angle, lateral angle, whatever you want to call it). It seemed intuitive to me that a hitter would generate more power to his pull side and less to the opposite field. I suspect if you were prompted to guess, you might have said the same.

And you would have been correct. Like last time, I examined 75th-percentile EV by spray angle using 2017-20 Statcast data and normalized for handedness (-45° is dead pull, whether right-handed or left-handed). The data largely validated my intuition:

If you draw a line straight up the middle of the field, EV falls off precipitously as soon as a hitter’s spray angle crosses that line, over from the pull side to the opposite field.

D.K. Willardson, author of Quantitative Hitting: Surprising Discoveries of the Game’s Best Hitters, nearly spoiled this when he left the following comment on my June 16 post about Pitch DHH%. He articulates the concept wonderfully:

[…] it seems like spray angle should also be considered. Batted ball data as well as bat sensor data show significant increases in bat speed on pull-side contact which has a consistency ‘cost’. […] It would seem that those with ‘organic’ power like Judge should have more value than those with high pull rates that are giving them more ‘synthetic’ power.

Again, drawing a line of best fit (r² = 0.99) through the graph above, we can establish a dynamic threshold for a hard-hit rate based on spray angle (“Spray DHH%”). And, again, like its DHH% and Pitch DHH% predecessors, Spray DHH% is more powerful than HardHit% every which way you cut it:

R² (Coefficient of Determination)
Metric wOBAcon (y0) wOBAcon (y1) Itself (y1)
DHH%: Spray Angle 0.466 0.339 0.728
DHH%: Pitch Speed 0.473 0.344 0.754
HardHit% 0.457 0.328 0.674
0 = no relationship; 1 = perfect relationship
y0 = current year; y1 = next year
Min. 250 batted ball events in y0 and y1

(An aside: increasing the line of best fit’s intercept term — shifting the entire threshold upward — improves stickiness, but at the expense of its descriptive power. We might find similar trade-offs if we changed the original HardHit% threshold from 95 mph to, say, 97 mph. This is all to say that the dynamic threshold I’ve chosen is negotiable. Just something worth noting.)

Like DHH% with respect to launch angle, Spray DHH% captures the limits of human strength with respect to batted ball direction. In theory, it rewards Willardson’s so-called organic power more than it rewards synthetic power, crediting only legitimate power to the pull side and giving more credit to well-struck balls to the opposite field.

Take, for example, Willi Castro, who generally makes weak contact and whose batted ball profile is almost perfectly distributed: 33.5% to the pull side, 33.5% up the middle, 32.9% to the opposite field. Among 179 hitters with at least 150 BBE through July 4, he ranks 12th in improvement from HardHit% (third percentile) to Spray DHH% (30th percentile). His major-league track record is short, and his body type lends itself to gap power, but there’s evidence to suggest Castro’s power spike could be repeatable were he to de-emphasize the opposite-field approach he freshly adopted in 2021.

Spray DHH% might also help us diagnose hitters whose swings have fallen out of whack. A hitter who grades out poorly by HardHit% but performs significantly better via Spray DHH% would suggest to me he is capable of improving his average EV (and related metrics) were he to turn on the ball a bit more.

The struggling Eugenio Suárez rates highly in his transition from HardHit% to Spray DHH%. A 4.0-WAR hitter who posted a .271/.364/.521 line (128 wRC+) while averaging more than 36 home runs per year from 2017 through ’19, Suárez underwent shoulder surgery before the 2020 season. The power is still there, kind of — he has hit 32 home runs in 565 plate appearances since — but it has come with a putrid .188/.281/.415 line (85 wRC+). In his case, Spray DHH% seems particularly illuminating given its stability:

Eugenio Suárez’s Hard Hits
Year HardHit% Spray DHH%
2018 45.5% 21.0%
2019 40.8% 21.9%
2020 44.7% 20.5%
2021 35.1% 20.7%

The sudden and stark discrepancy between his HardHit% and Spray DHH% suggests the conditions for his well-struck balls in 2021 have changed. There’s also a launch angle issue at play here: his SweetSpot% (the percentage of batted balls between 8-32 degrees), once incredibly stable between 38% and 39% from 2016 through ’19, has dipped to 30% post-surgery. I think all of this brings into focus that — as if it weren’t already obvious — maybe, just maybe?, Suárez’s shoulder isn’t actually 100% healthy. He still appears capable of his trademark power, but there seems to be a critical bat plane issue, perhaps influenced by his shoulder health.

Bear witness, if you will, to this swing from 2018 transposed against this swing almost exactly three years later, both on middle-middle pitches. My crude trigonometry suggests Suárez’s bat angle is nearly 7 degrees steeper. And that’s before noting his stance is now slightly open and crouched in addition to (what appears to be) a leg lift that features less recoil/rotation and possibly a foot plant that occurs a millisecond later. I’m less confident in the latter details — I admit I’m a poor scout — and it’s just two swings, chosen at random. It could be nothing. But, given the circumstances, it could also be not nothing.

Meanwhile, at the other end of the spectrum, Bryan Reynolds boasts the 4th-largest improvement from HardHit% (33rd percentile) to Spray DHH% (67th percentile) of any hitter with at least 150 BBE. His Statcast profile is confounding; his nearly elite “expected” metrics (xwOBA, xBA, xSLG) are betrayed by his lackluster HardHit% and average EV. Replace HardHit% with Spray DHH%, though, and Reynolds is redeemed. (He also grades out admirably by Pitch DHH%, too, as shown below, which suggests his average EV and HardHit% are affected more by spray angle and pitch speed than his raw outcomes let on.)

The table below compares HardHit%, Pitch DHH%, and Spray DHH% for all 266 hitters with at least 100 BBE through July 4 (the table is sortable). Like Pitch DHH%, maybe Spray DHH% better explains your favorite hitter’s production (or lack thereof). Who can say? Not me. I do hope, however, that adding context and nuance to hard-hit rates improves our ability to describe, diagnose, and better appreciate hitter performance. And I suspect that these contexts — launch angle and spray angle, for example — can be layered one upon another to create a more powerful Frankenstein dynamic hard-hit rate.

 
Rank Hitter Name BBE [A]
HardHit%
DHH%:
Pitch Velo
[B] DHH%:
Spray Angle
[A] – [B]
∆ Percentile
1 Giancarlo Stanton 156 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00
2 Aaron Judge 201 0.99 0.99 1.00 0.01
3 Shohei Ohtani 189 0.99 1.00 0.99 0.00
4 Nelson Cruz 201 0.96 0.98 0.99 0.03
5 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 238 0.97 0.99 0.99 0.01
6 Tyler O’Neill 147 0.95 0.95 0.98 0.03
7 Josh Donaldson 173 0.94 0.96 0.98 0.04
8 Fernando Tatis Jr. 168 0.99 0.99 0.97 -0.02
9 Manny Machado 232 0.97 0.95 0.97 0.00
10 Ronald Acuña Jr. 204 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.00
11 Franmil Reyes 101 0.94 0.98 0.96 0.02
12 Rowdy Tellez 106 0.89 0.92 0.96 0.07
13 Rafael Devers 227 0.98 0.97 0.95 -0.03
14 Salvador Perez 236 0.98 0.92 0.95 -0.03
15 Evan Longoria 119 1.00 0.96 0.95 -0.05
15 Yasmani Grandal 121 0.95 0.97 0.95 -0.01
17 Miguel Sanó 123 0.89 0.86 0.94 0.05
18 Matt Olson 239 0.84 0.88 0.94 0.10
19 Alec Bohm 203 0.90 0.87 0.93 0.03
19 Hunter Renfroe 202 0.74 0.93 0.93 0.19
21 Juan Soto 204 0.94 0.94 0.92 -0.02
22 Joey Gallo 159 0.72 0.94 0.92 0.20
23 Pete Alonso 189 0.85 0.94 0.92 0.07
24 Bo Bichette 260 0.91 0.87 0.91 0.01
25 Ketel Marte 115 0.91 0.89 0.91 0.00
26 Gary Sánchez 144 0.73 0.93 0.91 0.17
27 Teoscar Hernández 186 0.76 0.92 0.90 0.14
28 Jorge Soler 174 0.87 0.90 0.90 0.03
29 Garrett Cooper 127 0.91 0.91 0.89 -0.02
30 Justin Upton 151 0.80 0.91 0.89 0.09
31 Christian Yelich 107 0.95 0.79 0.89 -0.06
32 Harold Ramirez 145 0.86 0.95 0.88 0.02
33 Ryan Zimmerman 108 0.79 0.89 0.88 0.09
34 Paul Goldschmidt 244 0.96 0.88 0.88 -0.09
35 J.D. Martinez 230 0.80 0.83 0.87 0.07
36 Bobby Dalbec 134 0.65 0.90 0.87 0.22
37 Juan Lagares 134 0.67 0.78 0.86 0.19
37 Max Kepler 131 0.76 0.74 0.86 0.11
39 José Abreu 211 0.89 0.84 0.86 -0.04
40 Miguel Cabrera 168 0.85 0.83 0.85 0.01
41 Joc Pederson 168 0.89 0.85 0.85 -0.04
42 Jared Walsh 207 0.71 0.92 0.85 0.14
43 Trey Mancini 229 0.53 0.80 0.84 0.31
44 Andrew Vaughn 162 0.90 0.88 0.84 -0.06
45 Tommy Pham 192 0.82 0.74 0.83 0.01
46 Nick Castellanos 240 0.85 0.72 0.83 -0.02
47 Tyler Naquin 170 0.70 0.83 0.83 0.13
48 Josh Bell 163 0.93 0.85 0.82 -0.11
49 Adolis García 196 0.81 0.81 0.82 0.01
50 Ryan McMahon 204 0.86 0.82 0.82 -0.05
51 Clint Frazier 118 0.53 0.79 0.81 0.29
52 Freddie Freeman 238 0.93 0.84 0.81 -0.12
53 Avisaíl García 192 0.84 0.86 0.80 -0.04
54 Kyle Schwarber 179 0.92 0.85 0.80 -0.12
55 Bryce Harper 152 0.58 0.80 0.80 0.21
56 Adam Duvall 174 0.83 0.89 0.79 -0.04
57 Kelvin Gutierrez 104 0.71 0.73 0.79 0.08
58 Max Muncy 175 0.56 0.80 0.79 0.23
59 Rougned Odor 112 0.59 0.64 0.78 0.20
60 Pedro Severino 141 0.21 0.53 0.78 0.57
61 Eric Hosmer 234 0.82 0.82 0.77 -0.05
61 Joey Votto 145 0.86 0.72 0.77 -0.08
63 J.T. Realmuto 160 0.68 0.74 0.77 0.08
64 Nate Lowe 211 0.65 0.73 0.76 0.11
65 Randal Grichuk 240 0.75 0.76 0.76 0.01
66 Yordan Alvarez 187 0.89 0.75 0.76 -0.14
67 Gregory Polanco 152 0.68 0.68 0.75 0.08
68 Jason Heyward 141 0.61 0.70 0.75 0.14
69 Willy Adames 189 0.82 0.55 0.74 -0.07
70 Rhys Hoskins 216 0.79 0.61 0.74 -0.05
71 Corey Seager 118 0.92 0.77 0.74 -0.18
72 Javier Báez 166 0.75 0.86 0.73 -0.02
73 Taylor Ward 131 0.59 0.77 0.73 0.14
74 Carlos Correa 238 0.72 0.76 0.73 0.00
74 Mitch Moreland 119 0.69 0.61 0.73 0.03
76 Trevor Story 205 0.45 0.66 0.72 0.26
77 Chris Taylor 182 0.44 0.67 0.71 0.28
78 José Ramírez 237 0.83 0.79 0.71 -0.12
78 Josh Naylor 188 0.58 0.61 0.71 0.14
80 Austin Riley 205 0.62 0.81 0.70 0.08
80 Brandon Belt 106 0.89 0.77 0.70 -0.19
82 Albert Pujols 155 0.42 0.55 0.70 0.28
83 Willson Contreras 170 0.73 0.82 0.69 -0.04
84 Bryan Reynolds 223 0.37 0.69 0.68 0.31
85 Yandy Díaz 206 0.27 0.56 0.68 0.41
86 AJ Pollock 134 0.65 0.59 0.68 0.03
87 Anthony Rizzo 210 0.73 0.75 0.67 -0.06
88 C.J. Cron 156 0.36 0.53 0.67 0.31
89 Ian Happ 147 0.60 0.56 0.67 0.07
90 Christian Walker 140 0.52 0.46 0.66 0.14
91 DJ LeMahieu 264 0.64 0.36 0.66 0.02
92 Jonathan Schoop 245 0.51 0.66 0.65 0.15
93 Carlos Santana 243 0.60 0.62 0.65 0.05
94 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 146 0.57 0.54 0.65 0.08
95 Manuel Margot 223 0.63 0.58 0.64 0.01
96 Odúbel Herrera 179 0.41 0.56 0.64 0.23
97 Seth Brown 114 0.29 0.49 0.64 0.34
98 Brandon Lowe 172 0.46 0.71 0.63 0.17
99 Jonathan Villar 134 0.28 0.64 0.63 0.35
100 Victor Caratini 127 0.77 0.70 0.62 -0.15
101 Willie Calhoun 178 0.55 0.65 0.62 0.08
102 Yuli Gurriel 263 0.66 0.47 0.62 -0.04
103 Randy Arozarena 211 0.61 0.59 0.61 0.00
104 Phillip Evans 132 0.77 0.76 0.61 -0.16
105 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 223 0.37 0.40 0.61 0.24
106 Trea Turner 250 0.80 0.63 0.60 -0.20
107 Brandon Crawford 181 0.81 0.73 0.60 -0.21
108 Michael A. Taylor 163 0.55 0.54 0.59 0.05
109 David Bote 110 0.76 0.78 0.59 -0.17
110 Austin Hays 159 0.30 0.59 0.59 0.29
111 Yoán Moncada 176 0.64 0.69 0.58 -0.06
112 Tim Anderson 220 0.50 0.68 0.58 0.08
113 Elias Díaz 114 0.47 0.68 0.58 0.11
114 Jean Segura 170 0.48 0.67 0.57 0.09
115 Marcell Ozuna 142 0.50 0.67 0.57 0.07
116 Ramón Laureano 178 0.50 0.63 0.56 0.06
117 Nomar Mazara 111 0.56 0.65 0.56 0.00
118 Francisco Lindor 237 0.68 0.57 0.56 -0.12
119 Matt Chapman 198 0.51 0.52 0.55 0.04
119 Sean Murphy 163 0.49 0.71 0.55 0.06
121 Alex Verdugo 257 0.62 0.42 0.55 -0.08
122 Wil Myers 166 0.44 0.31 0.54 0.10
123 Ty France 219 0.36 0.57 0.54 0.18
124 Travis Shaw 129 0.40 0.58 0.53 0.14
125 Gio Urshela 198 0.64 0.60 0.53 -0.11
126 David Peralta 232 0.49 0.50 0.53 0.03
127 Mitch Haniger 238 0.69 0.55 0.52 -0.17
128 James McCann 145 0.78 0.50 0.52 -0.26
129 Enrique Hernández 198 0.33 0.39 0.52 0.19
130 Miguel Andújar 122 0.34 0.52 0.51 0.17
131 Corey Dickerson 160 0.14 0.42 0.51 0.37
132 Alex Kirilloff 137 0.63 0.70 0.50 -0.12
133 Austin Slater 107 0.71 0.62 0.50 -0.21
134 Jesse Winker 239 0.87 0.64 0.50 -0.38
135 Jonathan India 178 0.29 0.43 0.49 0.21
136 Jed Lowrie 213 0.77 0.49 0.49 -0.29
137 Gavin Lux 184 0.56 0.51 0.49 -0.08
138 Michael Brantley 229 0.78 0.58 0.48 -0.30
139 Austin Meadows 211 0.52 0.44 0.48 -0.04
140 Trent Grisham 150 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.02
141 Xander Bogaerts 242 0.48 0.50 0.47 -0.01
142 Anthony Santander 149 0.58 0.65 0.47 -0.12
143 Daniel Vogelbach 129 0.83 0.60 0.46 -0.36
144 Eugenio Suárez 194 0.22 0.48 0.46 0.24
145 Jesús Aguilar 226 0.67 0.45 0.45 -0.21
146 Michael Conforto 107 0.19 0.47 0.45 0.26
147 Ben Gamel 100 0.41 0.52 0.45 0.04
148 Kyle Tucker 229 0.92 0.62 0.44 -0.47
149 Paul DeJong 140 0.27 0.41 0.44 0.17
150 Hunter Dozier 157 0.74 0.48 0.44 -0.30
151 DJ Stewart 117 0.14 0.35 0.43 0.29
152 Jake Bauers 134 0.57 0.42 0.43 -0.14
153 Ryan Mountcastle 201 0.41 0.44 0.42 0.02
154 Starling Marte 130 0.23 0.51 0.42 0.20
155 Mike Yastrzemski 175 0.47 0.38 0.42 -0.05
156 Charlie Blackmon 220 0.54 0.53 0.41 -0.12
157 Buster Posey 157 0.70 0.27 0.41 -0.29
158 Erik González 181 0.11 0.37 0.41 0.30
159 Kyle Seager 230 0.61 0.32 0.40 -0.21
159 Mookie Betts 229 0.52 0.29 0.40 -0.12
161 Maikel Franco 241 0.15 0.45 0.39 0.24
162 Pavin Smith 237 0.74 0.39 0.39 -0.35
163 Alex Dickerson 117 0.55 0.38 0.39 -0.17
163 Dylan Moore 118 0.19 0.26 0.39 0.20
165 Tyler Stephenson 140 0.43 0.29 0.38 -0.05
166 Amed Rosario 212 0.54 0.35 0.38 -0.17
167 Dansby Swanson 215 0.79 0.38 0.37 -0.41
168 Dominic Smith 192 0.40 0.30 0.37 -0.03
169 Starlin Castro 229 0.42 0.43 0.36 -0.06
170 Marwin Gonzalez 159 0.34 0.37 0.36 0.02
171 Jon Berti 156 0.45 0.31 0.36 -0.09
172 Nick Solak 222 0.26 0.41 0.35 0.10
173 Brett Gardner 132 0.20 0.28 0.35 0.15
174 Cesar Hernandez 234 0.42 0.39 0.35 -0.08
175 Jeimer Candelario 205 0.29 0.45 0.34 0.05
176 Colin Moran 112 0.13 0.44 0.34 0.21
177 Will Smith 170 0.66 0.33 0.33 -0.33
178 Mike Tauchman 102 0.22 0.16 0.33 0.11
179 Edmundo Sosa 107 0.06 0.23 0.33 0.26
180 Mark Canha 204 0.53 0.24 0.32 -0.21
181 Jose Altuve 247 0.48 0.32 0.32 -0.16
182 Carson Kelly 116 0.31 0.49 0.32 0.00
183 Willi Castro 173 0.05 0.40 0.31 0.26
184 Yermín Mercedes 195 0.06 0.24 0.31 0.25
185 Niko Goodrum 116 0.47 0.35 0.30 -0.17
186 Kolten Wong 164 0.43 0.33 0.30 -0.13
187 Kris Bryant 202 0.40 0.34 0.30 -0.11
188 Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 김하성 130 0.11 0.21 0.29 0.19
189 Guillermo Heredia 118 0.33 0.26 0.29 -0.05
190 Jorge Polanco 240 0.38 0.35 0.29 -0.09
191 Jake Cronenworth 271 0.24 0.25 0.28 0.04
191 Raimel Tapia 268 0.23 0.17 0.28 0.05
193 Billy McKinney 126 0.31 0.29 0.27 -0.03
194 Joey Wendle 185 0.21 0.18 0.27 0.06
195 Alex Bregman 189 0.35 0.24 0.27 -0.08
196 Gleyber Torres 202 0.16 0.16 0.26 0.11
197 Adam Eaton 133 0.35 0.28 0.26 -0.09
197 Ozzie Albies 255 0.30 0.36 0.26 -0.04
199 Marcus Semien 249 0.62 0.26 0.25 -0.36
200 Jackie Bradley Jr. 162 0.71 0.47 0.25 -0.46
201 Nolan Arenado 270 0.32 0.18 0.24 -0.07
202 Luis Urías 191 0.39 0.15 0.24 -0.15
203 Justin Turner 226 0.67 0.41 0.24 -0.43
204 Victor Robles 147 0.12 0.27 0.23 0.11
205 Asdrúbal Cabrera 142 0.15 0.09 0.23 0.08
206 Cedric Mullins 253 0.49 0.32 0.23 -0.26
207 Didi Gregorius 100 0.03 0.20 0.22 0.19
208 Kevin Pillar 137 0.30 0.19 0.22 -0.09
209 Elvis Andrus 235 0.25 0.25 0.21 -0.04
210 Robbie Grossman 213 0.24 0.12 0.21 -0.03
211 Cavan Biggio 134 0.25 0.09 0.21 -0.04
212 Miguel Rojas 191 0.14 0.14 0.20 0.07
213 Yadier Molina 186 0.26 0.30 0.20 -0.06
214 David Dahl 115 0.38 0.23 0.20 -0.18
215 Andrew McCutchen 192 0.39 0.30 0.19 -0.20
216 Yan Gomes 155 0.32 0.36 0.19 -0.14
217 Donovan Solano 148 0.10 0.15 0.18 0.08
217 Tommy Edman 300 0.27 0.27 0.18 -0.09
219 J.P. Crawford 254 0.13 0.22 0.18 0.05
220 Matt Beaty 103 0.09 0.18 0.17 0.08
221 Charlie Culberson 115 0.04 0.08 0.17 0.13
222 Mauricio Dubón 122 0.15 0.21 0.17 0.02
223 Kevin Kiermaier 122 0.24 0.21 0.16 -0.08
223 Willians Astudillo 113 0.12 0.33 0.16 0.04
225 Eddie Rosario 240 0.26 0.17 0.15 -0.11
226 Leury García 163 0.18 0.20 0.15 -0.03
227 Wilmer Flores 173 0.09 0.11 0.15 0.05
228 Eduardo Escobar 239 0.23 0.23 0.14 -0.09
229 Andrew Benintendi 177 0.59 0.15 0.14 -0.45
230 Nick Ahmed 172 0.07 0.20 0.14 0.06
231 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 281 0.09 0.14 0.13 0.05
232 Francisco Mejía 108 0.17 0.11 0.13 -0.04
233 José Iglesias 217 0.12 0.22 0.12 0.01
234 Christian Vázquez 206 0.11 0.09 0.12 0.01
235 Kyle Farmer 188 0.10 0.13 0.12 0.02
236 Jose Trevino 135 0.33 0.17 0.11 -0.22
237 Josh Rojas 195 0.28 0.12 0.11 -0.17
238 Whit Merrifield 287 0.08 0.06 0.11 0.02
239 Joshua Fuentes 171 0.08 0.08 0.10 0.02
240 Jeff McNeil 123 0.36 0.14 0.10 -0.27
241 Jurickson Profar 189 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.02
242 Anthony Rendon 178 0.39 0.05 0.09 -0.30
243 Dylan Carlson 223 0.16 0.10 0.09 -0.08
244 Freddy Galvis 194 0.17 0.11 0.08 -0.09
245 Martín Maldonado 129 0.20 0.13 0.08 -0.12
246 Jacob Stallings 161 0.17 0.19 0.08 -0.10
247 Akil Baddoo 126 0.18 0.12 0.07 -0.11
248 Omar Narváez 159 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.01
249 Josh Harrison 202 0.18 0.07 0.06 -0.12
250 Tucker Barnhart 124 0.20 0.05 0.06 -0.14
251 Hanser Alberto 130 0.02 0.10 0.06 0.04
252 Kevin Newman 261 0.02 0.05 0.05 0.03
253 Luis Arraez 180 0.35 0.01 0.05 -0.30
254 Garrett Hampson 193 0.21 0.07 0.05 -0.17
255 Andrelton Simmons 178 0.02 0.06 0.04 0.02
256 Joe Panik 107 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.01
257 Nick Madrigal 184 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.02
258 Adam Frazier 284 0.05 0.03 0.03 -0.02
259 Yonathan Daza 188 0.07 0.02 0.03 -0.04
260 Brock Holt 109 0.05 0.03 0.02 -0.02
261 Harold Castro 113 0.45 0.04 0.02 -0.43
262 Nicky Lopez 183 0.04 0.01 0.02 -0.03
263 Myles Straw 223 0.03 0.04 0.01 -0.02
264 David Fletcher 278 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00
265 Eric Sogard 130 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
266 Tony Kemp 138 0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01
Default sort according to “[A] – [B] ∆ Percentile”
Rank according to “[B] DHH%: Spray Angle”

(Note that Castro’s, Suárez’s, and Reynolds’ percentiles appear different in the table because the minimum threshold was lowered from 140 BBE to 100 BBE.)





Currently investigating the relationship between pitcher effectiveness and beard density. Two-time FSWA award winner, including 2018 Baseball Writer of the Year, and 8-time award finalist. Previously featured in Lindy's Sports' Fantasy Baseball magazine (2018, 2019) and Rotowire's Fantasy Baseball magazine (2021). Tout Wars competitor. Biased toward a nicely rolled baseball pant.

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Ryan DC

Don’t know why this article hasn’t gotten more comments, just wanted to say this is really great work!