On Addison Russell and What Constitutes Evidence

Recently, Cubs shortstop Addison Russell was placed on administrative leave in response to a blog post by his ex-wife, Melisa Reidy-Russell, detailing abuse she allegedly suffered at his hands. She’s since added additional context to her blog post with this interview today. In between, Ken Rosenthal reported the following:

Major League Baseball did not place Cubs shortstop Addison Russell on paid administrative leave solely because of a blog post written by his former wife, Melisa Reidy.

The post alone would not have been enough for baseball to force Russell off the field under its joint domestic violence policy with the players’ union. The league had additional credible information, according to sources familiar with its investigation.

The league’s investigation includes interviews with Reidy and numerous other witnesses, and with officials gathering additional information since Russell went on leave, sources said.

While Rosenthal’s reporting is consistently excellent, it appears as though his statement here is slightly inaccurate, or at least incomplete. The plain language of MLB’s Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy appended to the Collective Bargaining Agreement states that an accusation, without more, is sufficient to place a player on administrative leave.

Under the Basic Agreement, the Commissioner may immediately place a Player accused of a Covered Act on Administrative Leave, effective as early as the date of the Notification, and may keep the Player on Administrative Leave for up to seven (7) days, including the date of Notification, subject to the Player’s right to challenge that decision set forth below.

What seems likely is that Rosenthal is referring to MLB’s recent extension of Russell’s leave past 30 days, which, theoretically, does require additional evidence. Again, from the Joint Policy:

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The Commissioner’s Office may ask the Players Association to consent to a one-time extension of the initial seven-day Administrative Leave period for an additional seven (7) days (for a total of fourteen (14) days), which consent shall not be unreasonably withheld. Alternatively, the Commissioner’s Office may defer placing the Player on Administrative Leave until the Player is either charged with a crime by law enforcement, or the Commissioner’s Office receives credible information corroborating the allegations.

This seems to be the confusion: for longer than seven days, additional evidence is required. For less than seven days, it’s not. It’s a minor point, perhaps. In the grand scheme of things, it’s not very significant.

Why I’m mentioning it here, however, is because — due to a very loud conversation occurring in our country at the moment, one that is riddled with all manner of misinformation and self-interest — there’s probably some merit to reviewing, under somewhat more sober conditions, how the law treats personal accounts like the one provided by Reidy-Russell on her blog.

One frequent understanding of such personal accounts is characterized as follows.

First, allow me to note that I’m not picking on Dylan here. There are a number of comments across the Twitterverse which make roughly the same point, urging not to presume guilt. That said, he makes a common error about the nature of what does and doesn’t constitute evidence.

To understand why, let’s look at the Federal Rules of Evidence, which govern in federal courts what is admissible evidence and what isn’t. Every state has its own version of the Rules of Evidence, but with some exceptions, they generally track with the Federal Rules. Let’s start with what relevant evidence actually is – and for that, we look at Rule 401.

Evidence is relevant if:

(a) it has any tendency to make a fact more or less probable than it would be without the evidence; and

(b) the fact is of consequence in determining the action.

This definition clearly includes accounts Melisa’s blog post: it’s a statement that has a tendency to make a fact more probable (that of Addison Russell’s alleged abuse), and the fact is of consequence, because it goes to the ultimate merits of the matter. And witness statements of people with personal knowledge are expressly contemplated by all of Article VI, most notably Rule 602 (emphasis mine):

A witness may testify to a matter only if evidence is introduced sufficient to support a finding that the witness has personal knowledge of the matter. Evidence to prove personal knowledge may consist of the witness’s own testimony.

That’s how statements like Melisa’s represent evidence — they are testimony about a witness’s own personal knowledge.

In response to that, you may be wondering why the statement doesn’t count as hearsay. “Hearsay” is a word that gets thrown around a lot, usually incorrectly. From Rule 801:

(c) Hearsay. “Hearsay” means a statement that:

(1) the declarant does not make while testifying at the current trial or hearing; and

(2) a party offers in evidence to prove the truth of the matter asserted in the statement.

In other words, a statement is inadmissible “hearsay” if it is an out-of-court statement offered to prove the truth of the matter asserted. But there are a lot of exceptions to the hearsay doctrine; as just one example, recorded recollections are excluded from the hearsay rule under Rule 803(5). In other words, there’s pretty much no doubt that Melisa’s blog post would be admissible evidence in some capacity. And generally, the rules of evidence are far more relaxed in administrative and arbitration proceedings (like MLB discipline), and often disregarded entirely; what that means is that everything relevant is considered evidence, and that includes Melisa’s blog post.

What this doesn’t address, of course, is the weight of the such accounts as evidence — which is perhaps more to the point of concerns like those expressed by people like Dylan above. Some scientific studies, for example, cast doubt on the reliability of eyewitness accounts. On the other hand, the evidence is legion that false rape or abuse allegations are incredibly uncommon, in only about 2-10% of cases. And evidence also shows that memories of traumatic events, like assault or abuse, actually are less likely to become distorted over time. As Harvard University psychology Professor Jim Hopper explains,

But memories of highly stressful and traumatic experiences, at least their most central details, don’t tend to fade over time. And while people may have the superficial abstract stories they tell themselves and others about their worst traumas, that’s not because the worst details have been lost. It’s often because they don’t want to remember them, and don’t (yet) feel safe to remember them.

In other words, memories of trauma, while not perfect, tend to be the most reliable when it comes to the crux of the event in question, which is one reason why they are still considered such powerful evidence. And while forensic evidence obviously has merits, it’s important to note that it isn’t perfect. Some data suggest that the error rate on DNA evidence, for instance, could be as high as 1 in 100.

The point here isn’t that memories are the best evidence, or better than DNA. Instead, the point is that the CSI/forensic television world of lawyering and policing, where forensic evidence is regarded as unassailable and memories are useless, obscures the reality of the situation. Both witness accounts and scientific forensic evidence are valuable. Both should be considered as evidence, with their context and flaws taken into account. And an eyewitness account is not less useful as evidence merely because it is an eyewitness account. In a case like Russell’s, MLB isn’t required to presume Russell innocent. And even if it were, MLB doesn’t have to prove its case beyond a reasonable doubt — it merely has to establish that it is more likely than not that Russell committed a violation of the domestic-violence policy. In that context, an eyewitness account from an alleged victim carries considerable weight.





Sheryl Ring is a litigation attorney and General Counsel at Open Communities, a non-profit legal aid agency in the Chicago suburbs. You can reach her on twitter at @Ring_Sheryl. The opinions expressed here are solely the author's. This post is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as legal advice.

72 Comments
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John Elway
7 years ago

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WARrior
7 years ago

Really glad you at least alluded to the Kavanaugh hearings. The weight we should give to someone’s allegations is so obviously relevant, as is the reliability of old memories. I do want to point out, though, that the % of false rape accusations, at least, is hotly contested. There are studies suggesting that it may be much higher than 2-10%. I’m not saying I don’t believe Reidy or Ford, there are other factors in both those cases that add to their credibility. I just think it’s important to point out that as a general statistic, over all kinds of situations, determining the proportion of false accusations is problematic.

Your link to Jim Hopper, whom you describe as a Harvard psychologist, goes to a long-deceased pitcher of that name.

Bigperm8645Member since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  WARrior

Dude, this is patently dumb and wrong. “There are studies suggesting that it may be much higher than 2-10%. I’m not saying I don’t believe Reidy or Ford, there are other factors in both those cases that add to their credibility. ”

You definitely do not believe them. And that’s fine, but don’t couch your argument in impartiality. It’s embarrassing.

BMac
7 years ago
Reply to  WARrior

Memories backed by a positive polygraph result are a bit more difficult to discount than a blog

Bronnt
7 years ago
Reply to  BMac

Polygraphs are a junk science. I’d encourage you to read up on all the ways in which they, also, are very problematic.

JimMember since 2016
7 years ago

Nice parallel.

schpydahMember since 2017
7 years ago

Thank you for your continued excellent work, Sheryl.

Captain Tenneal
7 years ago

The misconception between evidence and proof reminds me of an exchange I saw shortly after Cano’s suspension. To paraphrase:

Cano fan: How can the league suspend him? There’s no evidence he used PEDs!
Other person: Well they found a diuretic in his system. Its only 2 uses are for really sick people who definitely can’t play professional baseball and as a masking agent for PEDs.
Cano fan: So where’s the evidence?!

rounders
7 years ago

“Studies” show false rape accusations are 2-3%. Actual police experience show they are 40%. The first motive is revenge, the others empowerment and money. It is unfortunate indeed that fangraphs contributors will be judged by the same standard as mlb. Guilty until proven otherwise.

HappyFunBallMember since 2019
7 years ago
Reply to  rounders

Not sure why I’m feeding the troll but … is “actual police experience” something more than anecdotal evidence?

Note that 2 or 3 or 10 anecdotes are still just anecdotes

CC AFCMember since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  rounders

Cool story, dude. And nice use of scare quotes around “studies.” I’ll trust the peer reviewed, scientific studies of the issue over whatever “actual police experience” is.

How bout this? What police department do you work for? Because either you’re spreading false information to denigrate victims based on your own experience, which I’m sure your employer wouldn’t appreciate, or you’re impersonating a police officer or claiming to have access to police information you shouldn’t have access to.

MikeSMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  rounders

Link to something scientific (as Sheryl did) or shut the fuck up.

WARrior
7 years ago
Reply to  MikeS

He may be referring to this:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF01541619

However, the determination of a report as false was made solely by the police. There was no independent verification.

See also this:

https://digitalcommons.lmu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=https://scholar.google.com/&httpsredir=1&article=2216&context=llr

I’m not claiming I know one way or another, just that there is some controversy.

Spa City
7 years ago
Reply to  MikeS

That is how it goes these days. Use abusive, threatening language to Bully people you disagree with into silence. Nice.

EonADSMember since 2024
7 years ago
Reply to  rounders

“Actual police experience” sounds about as hokey in this post as the “100% Juice” label on the side of my nephew’s High-C Orange box. It’s just absolutely meaningless and it has nothing to back it up.

Knoblaublah
7 years ago
Reply to  rounders

Does that 40% include claims made about football players and doctors at Florida State, Baylor and Michigan State, among other athletic programs, because it sure seems that police and authorities were quick to consider the claims not credible, even though most have eventually proven to be institutional problems?

yakustkMember since 2023
7 years ago
Reply to  Knoblaublah

Weird that you didn’t mention Duke’s lacrosse team.

Johnston
7 years ago
Reply to  rounders

I grew up in a law enforcement family. At the dinner table we always had multiple current and former law enforcement officers, usually including a senior MP officer, two people who would or had run a large law enforcement body, and one excellent detective. A common theme was that witnesses were unreliable, that people commonly lied under oath (e.g., denying things that had been seen to happen by the police) and that women used false accusations of domestic violence and rape against men to punish them. I spent two years as a first responder and saw the exact same things. One of my closest friends lost custody of his children as a result of false accusations of domestic violence made by his wife. A prominent and morally upright citizen where I live shot himself when subjected to such false accusations: he left a note saying he was innocent but he couldn’t stand the stain on his character. I could go on and on. Yes, some women do get beaten; men are not angels…but then neither are women.

I refuse to condemn anyone on the basis of a she-said/he-said set of arguments, especially when something (money, custody, reputation etc.) is at stake and there is zero real evidence. Women can and will lie just like men do. Women also file false charges. Anyone who says otherwise is simply being delusional. He-said/she-said is not conclusive in any way. You need evidence. You need proof. You need evidence that justifies an arrest, that justifies charges, that justifies a conviction. Without that evidence and proof you have nothing.

The author conveniently ignores the facts that the police will make an arrest when sufficient actual evidence that a crime has been committed exists, and that a DA or a grand jury will file charges if enough actual evidence exists that a trial on those charges has a reasonable chance of leading to a conviction, and that a DA will prosecute it if they think they can win the case. And that every American – every American, you, me, every one of us – is innocent until proven guilty. And that every American is supposed to be guaranteed due process. None of that has happened in this case. As far as legal reality is concerned, Russell is completely innocent. Only a kangaroo court says otherwise.

Did he ever hit her? I don’t know, you don’t know, no lawyers know, and the MLB doesn’t know. If you can prove it I will happily support punishing him. But the problem is this: no one who wasn’t there can ever know what happened.

Glossed over in this article is the fact that the law says Russell is innocent until proven guilty and that it’s almost impossible to get a conviction for a crime based solely on she said/he said allegations with no witnesses and no physical evidence.

Convictions are hard. Allegations are easy. And Americans are innocent until convicted.

yakustkMember since 2023
7 years ago
Reply to  Sheryl Ring

No, but it certainly is the right thing to do under most circumstances.

Adam SMember since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  yakustk

I’d suggest the opposite is true in cases in cases of workplace harassment. The typical pattern is Person A violates company policy, after multiple violations Person B officially complains, employer investigates (if person B is lucky), Person A denies (perhaps flat out denial perhaps a claim that things were out of context), employer can’t prove the claim and does nothing. Repeat. This is just a horrible way to treat employees and these employers DO deserve to be wiped out of existence.

Not saying any employee accused or harassment/domestic abuse should be fired. But as a society we should do a much better job protecting victims instead of perpetrators.

OddBall Herrera
7 years ago
Reply to  Sheryl Ring

It may not be a binding requirement on non-criminal cases, but there is a reason the standard exists – specifically because it supports processes that are most likely to produce fair outcomes and prevent abuses by the finder of fact – and that reason is just as applicable if you run an organization and want fair outcomes yourself.

Just like with free speech – we can hopefully all agree that the principle is important even in situations where legally it does not apply.

Johnston
7 years ago
Reply to  Sheryl Ring

“In other words, your employer is generally under no obligation to presume you innocent in disciplinary proceedings.”

Then that employer is a totalitarian ass and deserves to be sued out of existence. Presuming that someone is guilty is the province of dictatorships – nations subject to the rule of man and not the rule of law. America, until recently, has been governed by the rule of law, part of which is that everyone is assumed to be innocent until they are proven guilty in a court of law. Addison Russell may be innocent or he may be as guilty as sin, but no one has the power to determine that except the justice system. If an employer automatically assumes that an employee is guilty in a non-at-will state (which I believe is the great majority of them), then the employee needs to hire an attack dog attorney and sue the living Hell out of them.

One of my friends was once fired for something that he could prove he didn’t do by people acting in just that manner. He sued and got an excellent retirement package out of the deal.

The MLBPA needs to remove all of this nonsense in the next CBA. Replace it with suspending someone if they are formally charged with such a crime, and then either banning them for life when found guilty of it or clearing them to play if the charges are dropped, they are found not guilty, or if they win on appeal. That would take the current kangaroo court away and let the justice system do the job it’s supposed to do. That would make things right, just, and fair.

TheOnlyNolan
7 years ago
Reply to  Johnston

Employers are, as a rule, “totalitarian asses.” That’s the economy and society we live in. If you have a union, you have some protection, but most workplaces are still effectively autocratic, undemocratic institutions. Richard Wolff has a great take on sexual harassment and such in the workplace. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOLIfsK-Ak4

TKDCMember since 2016🏆 MVP
7 years ago
Reply to  Johnston

Oh, yeah, witnesses lie all the time, but the police never do, amirite? Your comment history leads me to believe each and every one of these law enforcement officers at your dinner table were probably the proverbial “bad apple” we always hear about. And past that, there is a reason the police play zero role in determining the credibility of witnesses, or even testing that credibility.

rhdx
7 years ago
Reply to  TKDC

The police are largely responsible for which people they investigate and which leads they follow up on. They do play a large role in determining credibility before things go to trial.

Johnston
7 years ago
Reply to  TKDC

“each and every one of these law enforcement officers at your dinner table were probably the proverbial “bad apple” we always hear about.”

What a vile piece of slander. Two of them won multiple elections each as county sheriffs; one was decorated and promoted over and over again as an MP officer; the last one was shot and killed saving civilians. You should be ashamed of yourself, but given your partisan hatred and love of slander I am certain you are incapable of feeling anything even resembling shame.

Runaway ToasterMember since 2016🏆 MVP
7 years ago
Reply to  Johnston

I don’t know you or your family, but winning elections as sheriffs does not exonerate anyone. Look up John Balcerzak and Joseph Gabrish as examples of “upstanding officers of the law.”

But it’s cool, anecdotal “my family totally says false accusations happen all the time” out-weighs actual studies of the situation. My dad says Manny Ramirez was underrated as a outfielder, and he watched him every day!

Walter
7 years ago

“I don’t know you or your family, but winning elections as sheriffs does not exonerate anyone. ”

Huh? These are people that didn’t need to be exonerated in the first place. Some joke on the internet just wants to label them as a “bad apple” and now they need exonerating?

LHPSU
7 years ago
Reply to  Johnston

The police play an overwhelming role in creating kangaroo courts of presumption of guilt.

Johnston
7 years ago
Reply to  LHPSU

“The police play an overwhelming role in creating kangaroo courts of presumption of guilt”

Partisan nonsense. You and your family are only safe in your home and lives because of the police. You don’t have to thank them for that, but you could at least avoid lying about them.

Charles Bengal TigerMember since 2017
7 years ago
Reply to  Johnston

The “Thin Blue Line Heroes that walk among us as heroes” gospel. Wow, you could at least have some perspective about them. And realize there are probably a hundred episodes a day across this country in which police officers’ actions contradict the fairy-tale world you live in and the lies you peddle.

RoyalsFan#14321
7 years ago
Reply to  Johnston

“You and your family are only safe in your home and lives because of the police.”

I LOLed.

Signed, Also A First Responder

humanbeingbean
7 years ago
Reply to  Johnston

I don’t remember ever seeing the police personally protect my family/house… they must be very secretive.

ARodTheGOAT
7 years ago

Probably one of the most informative and applicable articles I’ve read on fangraphs (with all due respect to the other great writers on this site). Thanks for this!

Roger21
7 years ago

Sheryl, you really think a blog post about events that occurred years ago would come in under 803(5)? That seems to read the word “fresh” right out of the rule.

(Not that this would undercut the point that the post is evidence; it’s just not admissible evidence)

tb.25
7 years ago
Reply to  Roger21

So long as the case is open, yes. MLB never closed the book on this.

Especially when their key witness & accuser says ‘not yet’ to giving the details. It’d be different if she said one thing and backtracked into another.

OddBall Herrera
7 years ago

“What this doesn’t address, of course, is the weight of the such accounts as evidence — which is perhaps more to the point of concerns like those expressed by people like Dylan above”

Exactly, and thank you for being fair enough to include this sentence, I was worried you weren’t going to. What most of these people are saying, in an imprecise way, is that there is no evidence *corroborating* a person’s account of what happened. Obviously that person’s account does constitute evidence itself, but we are limited to one person’s description and characterization of an event and judgments about his/her credibility, which is not usually where you want to be as a finder of fact, particularly where there’s something at stake.

Most people’s brains just lack comfort with ambiguity, which is why they usually roll their eyes at explanations offered by individuals in the legal profession, or who are merely analytical rather than emotive thinkers, and demand ‘sides be taken’…

Lastly, one wrinkle for the memory question is so called ‘recovered’ memory, which is notoriously unreliable. I have no idea if it’s a concern in the Kavanaugh case(s), though I have been looking and I would love to find an answer to that.

TKDCMember since 2016🏆 MVP
7 years ago

But these people still sound like idiots. The real problem is that every idiot on the internet thinks he is Perry Mason. Nobody ever explains how to correctly remove an appendix, inspect a bridge’s structural soundness, or audit a corporation’s taxes, but for some reason when it comes to the law, anyone with fingers and Twitter is all of the sudden qualified to give professional legal advice.

evo34Member since 2023
7 years ago
Reply to  TKDC

No, the real problem is that some random investigators hired by Manfred are presumed to be infallible even though we have no idea who they are or what they have actually uncovered, if anything, in any given case.

evo34Member since 2023
7 years ago

She decided to write a whole article arguing semantics. Have you noticed a theme?

Spa City
7 years ago

Another excellent article by Sheryl.

OddBall Herrera
7 years ago
Reply to  Spa City

“Kris Bryant sexually assaulted me several years ago. He is a serial sexual assaulter, and he must be prevented from playing in the upcoming playoff series. Javy Baez was there, too… Baez and Bryant sexually assaulted me. If you disagree, you hate women and want to perpetuate sexual assault. Shame on you!”

This type of argument is not helpful, because you are not taking the topic seriously and you’re doing people who do take it seriously but have concerns about the process a disservice by associating your argument with theirs. I have yet to hear of an assault allegation frivolously made (yes, sometimes false, but never frivolous).

**For context if you’re confused the post above was edited

Spa City
7 years ago

Another outstanding contribution by Kyle Tucker.

OddBall Herrera
7 years ago
Reply to  Spa City

These moderated posts leave so much the imagination. Instead of replacing things with nice comments you should replace them with Shakespearean insults.

It’s always a good day when someone has taken the time to call me a “damned and luxurious mountain goat”

Sn0wman
7 years ago

Thank you for the addendum, because I was confused as hell.

David Ducksworth
7 years ago

In relation to the percentage of rape allegations which are false, a very important clarification must be made as to the numbers used, namely that there are not only two outcomes of the allegation being false, or being proven, but the extremely common third outcome of the case not proceeding due to lack of evidence.

It is not entirely accurate to call those allegations false, because, as noted, they did not proceed. What does make those instances important, however, is their demonstration that a vastly larger number of allegations have insufficient evidence to proceed than are actively disproven, though both end in a non-guilty accused.

One might think on seeing the 2-10% statistic that 90-98% of rape allegations are proven. The actual number is closer to half, and this should be taken into account when assessing the evidence in any claim.

Study linked below. 5.9% of allegations were classified as false, in line with the statistic which Sheryl correctly presents above, but 44.9% did not proceed, a number which is crucial to view the first statistic in context.

http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1077801210387747

TRad
7 years ago

And you’ve destroyed another piece of propagit. Shame on you.

Johnston
7 years ago

“5.9% of allegations were classified as false, in line with the statistic which Sheryl correctly presents above, but 44.9% did not proceed”

Translation: in nearly half of all reported cases there was insufficient evidence to proceed, but only in about 1 case in 16 could they establish that the woman was definitely lying. Based on my two years as a first responder I’d say that sounds just about right.

TKDCMember since 2016🏆 MVP
7 years ago
Reply to  Johnston

So, filing a false police report is a crime and you are innocent until proven guilty, so the only real false reports are those that result in a conviction for filing a false police report, right? That would be consistent with your other comments.

I am shocked, SHOCKED, that you seem to have a different standard for determining guilt of these women, as opposed to possible rapists.

rhdx
7 years ago
Reply to  TKDC

I am not sure the police necessarily care about proving a woman was definitely lying after determining there is not enough evidence to proceed with the case. The police have limited resources and have to move on to the next thing. It is unlikely that in those 44.9% of allegations the claimant was never lying once.

Johnston
7 years ago
Reply to  TKDC

‘So, filing a false police report is a crime and you are innocent until proven guilty, so the only real false reports are those that result in a conviction for filing a false police report, right? That would be consistent with your other comments.’

Straw man much? Not only are you lying and utterly wrong about me again, that doesn’t even make any sense. Go away.

TRad
7 years ago
Reply to  Johnston

The bar for classifying allegations is false is even higer than bar for conviction of crime.

For example: let’s suppose that a woman is saying that she was gangraped several weeks ago. She doesn’t know exactly when, where and by whom (she could point to one person). There are no material evidence. No obduction. No witnesses. How would you suggest to prove her accusation is false? For my money it’s impossible.

TKDCMember since 2016🏆 MVP
7 years ago
Reply to  TRad

If there is not an alleged assailant, then this hypothetical doesn’t really relate to the number of men who are falsely accused. Presumably a woman who just makes up a story without pinning it on a particular person is either mentally ill or trying to get out of a jam. It literally can’t be about revenge or any of these other issues brought up above.

evo34Member since 2023
7 years ago

Why don’t we just do away with the judicial system and hire MLBs’ crack team of investigators to decide all disputes? It seems like they are much more efficient, and they must be good because….Manfred?

BTW, an accuser writing down what he/she alleged happened to him/her — while technically “evidence” — holds almost no weight whatsoever, for obvious reasons. So your entire post is merely arguing semantics — a common theme of yours I see.

docgooden85Member since 2018
7 years ago
Reply to  evo34

The study and practice of law are all about semantics. If it’s a theme in your perception, there’s your reason. I thought it was a good article, although due to length it leaves out a lot of details and caveats.

Evidence was my favorite class in law school, what was yours?

evo34Member since 2023
7 years ago
Reply to  docgooden85

I didn’t go to law school. Hence, I do not enjoy arguing against straw men.

JRMayneMember since 2016
7 years ago

Good article, but I think you are wrong about past recollection recorded. This doesn’t mean the blog post is not some evidence.

First off, right now the post is direct evidence. The blog post would only become hearsay if it were being used in lieu of testimony. So this doesn’t really matter. But:

The FRE’s exception for past recollection recorded requires that the person not remember the prior event; she remembers the prior events just fine. In a court proceeding, she would have to testify and be subject to cross-examination and unless the post was used as a prior inconsistent statement, it would not be admissible.

But that doesn’t mean it’s not evidence. Personal accounts ARE evidence. This is direct evidence of a crime.

Heck, hearsay accounts are *some* evidence – they’re just often barred by court proceedings. We rely on hearsay all the time:

You: Hey, Jill said they ran out of supplies need napkins for the party. Can you bring some?
Me: Objection, hearsay.
You: Problem solved, you’re disinvited to the party.

(On the underlying matter, I express no opinion. These are technical legal points only.)

rhdx
7 years ago

As a statistician, I would never classify anything that happens up to 10% of the time as “incredibly uncommon”. Certainly using a variant of the word “incredible”, meaning ‘too extraordinary and improbable to be believed’ is an incredibly inaccurate way to describe something that may occur in 10% of cases. But I am not a lawyer or a journalist so hyperbole doesn’t rule the day for me.

tung_twista
7 years ago
Reply to  rhdx

I’m not a lawyer or a journalist either but I know that it is incredibly rare to see the word ‘incredible’ used to mean “too extraordinary and improbable to be believed”.

rhdx
7 years ago
Reply to  tung_twista

You are certainly correct, but it was easier to just use the actual definition than to argue about what it means in use today. But, do you consider something that happens in perhaps 10 percent of cases to be an ‘incredibly uncommon’ occurrence?

Sn0wman
7 years ago
Reply to  rhdx

Now THIS is a semantical argument.

Walter
7 years ago
Reply to  rhdx

This struck me too, rhdx. Then later on down the article we hear: “Some data suggest that the error rate on DNA evidence, for instance, could be as high as 1 in 100.”

Now, that’s a perfectly acceptable way to say that, with no subjective adjective like “uncommon” paired with an even worse adverb “incredibly”. However, there are many ways the author could have phrased this and discussed the topic in general, yet it was chosen to go with one that emphases the upper bound of the estimates only.

I found one of the articles linked to in this section was very interesting. They used a Bayesian model to inspect how the odds of false matches (DNA tests falsely report the samples being the same), the odds of a random match (two individuals would test the same given the genetic markers used), and the prior odds impact the strength of the DNA evidence.

Generally, what’s cautioned against in these pieces are so called “cold-hits”, when a DNA database is searched to identify a suspect. What’s more important to the issue at hand is if the DNA evidence actually implicates the person being accused. Given the individual probabilities of mistakes at the lab (1 in several hundred generally, and note this is not the same as the false match probability, but a component of the false match probability), and the types of probabilities listed above, I don’t see how we arrive at anything like 1% false positive in these types of situations. As you can tell from the table in the Bayesian article, if we can already reasonability think a person might be the perpetrator (2:1) the posterior odds are tremendously large irregardless of the false match or random match odds. And if we’re slightly less confident in our prior (1:10), we still need what appear to me to be exceptionally large probabilities for the random or false match probabilities to have only small (<100) posterior odds.

Paul G.Member since 2016
7 years ago

On the other hand, the evidence is legion that false rape or abuse allegations are incredibly uncommon, in only about 2-10% of cases.

First, these studies are of dubious value for the simple reason that identifying what is and is not a false allegation is both difficult and arbitrary. There are clearly identifiable examples that can be cleanly categorized, but the gray area is large. Changing the definitions of “allegation” and “false” can cause the numbers to swing wildly. The best of these studies are, at best, well-intentioned guesstimates, while the worst of them are biased garbage that exist mainly to be used as cudgels in political arguments.

Second, 10% of allegations being false is not “incredibly uncommon” by any reasonable standard. If the 10% number is true I would find that horrifying. It would mean that false allegations are quite common to the point that if you paid attention to such things you would regularly witness the event many times on a daily basis. It would mean that innocent men and women are regularly being falsely accused of a serious crime that can ruin their lives forever even if exonerated. This is a very big deal. Even the 2% number is disturbing. For comparison, the number of plate appearances that result in a home run in 2018 is 3%. That’s not rare, not to most people.

I am not even sure why this comes up. Is it supposed to be calming that Russell is, more likely than not, guilty? That is little solace if he, or anyone else for that matter, is actually innocent and getting railroaded.

carterMember since 2020
7 years ago

I wonder what would of happened if he had been playing like an all-star this year rather than a replacement player

ThomServo
7 years ago

This article tackles a tough topic well imo. Thahks to the author.

RoyalsFan#14321
7 years ago

I really really enjoy these articles, Sheryl, I’m sure that you and I wouldn’t agree on much personally, but you’ve managed to create conversation and doing it while swimming into some relatively dangerous waters and I feel like I learn something relevant with each article you write.

Robert K Duncan
7 years ago

Doesn’t this assume that blog posts are credible? I’d put more credibility into a sworn statement than a blog post.

jiveballer
7 years ago

It does rather gloss over the fact that not all evidence is equal. “Evidence” could be anything relevant to a case. A blog post could easily be used by the defendant to indicate an unreliable plaintiff if there are claims that are inconstant under oath / cross-examination. In the Russel case, this could be why the claim of physical abuse was so vague.

ItsPoPtime
7 years ago

Wait, so an accusation without any other evidence is evidence in itself now? Honestly just wondering because that seems a little extreme.